March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Why Is Contrarian Betting so Profitable During the NCAA Tournament?


The NCAA Tournament, like the Super Bowl, ropes in even the most casual of bettors. With bracket pools, early tip-offs and a slew of games to choose from, it’s a natural time for those who don’t normally bet to get back in the game.

Of course, an influx of recreational money gives contrarian bettors plenty of opportunity to find value. In general, many March Madness bettors only follow college basketball for the NCAA Tournament. As a result, they’re largely uneducated regarding current players and teams, and often overvalue favorites, higher-seeded squads, and trendy Cinderella teams.

Because oddsmakers understand the teams and situations that will attract public money, they react by shading lines to force these bettors to take worse numbers. For example, a blue-blood program like Duke is likely to be a popular wager among uneducated bettors simply because of the program’s history and mainstream name recognition. Power ratings may suggest that Duke should be a 10-point favorite in a specific matchup and oddsmakers will instead open the Blue Devils at -12, knowing that recreational players will bet on Duke, no matter the number. That’s two free points of value for a contrarian bettor looking to fade Duke at +12.

So which games should bettors target during the NCAA Tournament?

According to Bet Labs database, contrarian value begins to appear when a side is receiving 40% or fewer of total spread tickets.


Betting on teams that received the majority of public action (more than 50% of tickets wagered) has been a losing proposition since 2005, resulting in a loss of 63.90 units. (A unit is simply a bettor’s normal wager size. For example, a $100 bettor would have lost $6,390 (-63.90 x $100) betting those games.)

On the other hand, value increases the more lopsided a game gets, highlighted by an ATS win rate of 54.2% and profit of more than 24 units when the percentage of tickets wagered dips to 40% and below.

[New York Knight]

There are currently 13 double-digit spreads for the Thurs/Fri games of the NCAA tourney.

The most in Odds Shark database since 1996 is 16 (1996 & 2000) ... The fewest is 8 (2006 & 2012)

[New York Knight]

How underdogs perform in the first round


Last Year:

4-26 SU
15-14-1 ATS


In the 30-Second Shot Clock Era:

12-49 SU
30-30-1 ATS


Since 1996:

158-466 SU
312-303-9 ATS

[New York Knight]

Virginia has the best record against the spread (21-8-1) of any major-conference team in the field.

[New York Knight]

Most bets to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Michigan State
2. Kansas
3. Villanova
4. Duke
5. Kentucky


Most money wagered to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Villanova
4. Kansas
5. Arizona

[New York Knight]

The only game in the opening round that had seen a 2-point line-movement at the South Point was the First Four clash between Texas Southern and North Carolina Central. Texas Southern opened as a 6-point favorite, but quickly was bet down to -4.

"Big money, limit bets from guys who seemed like they knew what they were doing" caused the move, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

[New York Knight]

Michigan is the worst-case scenario for the South Point sportsbook.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews ...

"It's a team that got hot at the end of the year and have a really good coach"

"I think they definitely have a chance to win it all."

[New York Knight]

MGM took multiple bets on Gonzaga on Sunday night, shortly after updating the odds to win the tournament.

Couple bets to win six figures [on Gonzaga at 30-1]

[New York Knight]

Prop bet at MGM ...

Will any No. 1 seed be behind or tied with a No. 16 seed at halftime?

Yes +400 / No -600


The early money was on "Yes."

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

In the 7/10 and 8/9 games, the team with the better regular season record is 45-19 SU (70.3%) the last 8 years.

[New York Knight]

In Wichita State's last 9 tourney games, the underdog is 7-1 ATS with 4 outright wins.

Shockers are 0-5 ATS with 3 outright losses in their last 5 games in the R64 or later as a favorite.

[New York Knight]

Which 2-seed will get knocked off this weekend?

Only once in the last 21 years - and only 4 times since field expanded in 1985 - have all four 2-seeds reached the Sweet 16.

[New York Knight]

Dogs are 11-3-2 ATS in UK last 16 tourney games with 6 outright wins.

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11-seed Loyola just a 2.5-point to 6-seed Miami.

Missouri Valley teams are 8-0 in the Round of 64 over the last 5 years with 4 of the 8 wins coming as a lower seed.

[New York Knight]

Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com ...



No. 15 Iona Gaels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Open: -20; Move: -19

Perennial championship contender Duke is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run over its last nine games, though it bowed out in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. A week after beating North Carolina in the regular-season finale, the Blue Devils (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS) tumbled to the Tar Heels 74-69 as a 4-point favorite Friday night.

Iona was the No. 4 seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but made a three-game run through the conference tourney to claim the automatic NCAA bid. The Gaels (20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS) capped their run with an 83-71 victory over Fairfield as a 2.5-point chalk on March 5.

Early sharp play was on the heavy underdog, taking the number down a point for this Thursday matchup.

“I’m rooting against the joint. They bet Iona, and that’s who I’m rooting for,” Kaminsky said. “I want Iona to win outright, because the school is in New Rochelle, N.Y., where ‘The Dick Van Dyke Show’ was set. That was one of my favorite TV shows when I was a kid.”



No. 16 Pennsylvania Quakers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -15; Move: -14

Like Duke, Kansas is another team that’s always a high seed with a chance to make a March run. The Jayhawks (27-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) won and cashed in all three of their Big 12 Tournament games last weekend, dropping West Virginia 81-70 in Saturday’s final as a 1.5-point underdog.

Penn shared the Ivy League’s regular-season crown, then got the title that really mattered in the league tournament. The Quakers (24-8 SU, 13-14 ATS) entered the Ivy final as a 2.5-point favorite against Harvard, fell behind by 13 in the first half, but quickly rallied to go up 13 in the second half and hang on for a 68-65 win.

“They took Penn, which has been the best team in the Ivy League all year. Every Friday and Saturday, every square bettor was taking Penn,” Kaminsky said, while noting in the case of this Thursday meeting, it was wiseguy money on the Quakers. “They took the 15, we’re down to 14 against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.”



No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11

Michigan is arguably the hottest team heading into the Big Dance and will have had 10 days off before this Thursday game tips. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS spree, including a perfect four-game run through the Big Ten Tournament, where they topped Purdue 75-66 catching 4 points in the March 4 final.

Montana is the toast of the Big Sky Conference, as both the regular-season and tournament champ. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) needed overtime to beat Northern Colorado in the Big Sky semis, but rolled over Eastern Washington in the final, 82-65 giving 4.5 points Saturday.

Kaminsky said one bettor whom he described as “semi-sharp” helped move this number down a point.

“The guy who bet it used to live in Mexico, and now he’s in Bogota, Colombia,” Kaminsky said. “He took the ‘dog +12, and we went to 11.”



No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -10.5; Move: -9.5

West Virginia was so good this season that it was in position to beat Kansas three times – but lost all three. The Mountaineers (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) got their latest shot at the Jayhawks in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament final, and even went off as a 1.5-point favorite in Kansas City, but fell 81-70.

Murray State claimed the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, and hasn’t lost in nearly two months. The Racers (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) are on a 13-game SU roll (8-5 ATS), breezing by Belmont 68-51 as a 1.5-point underdog in the OVC title game on March 3.

“They took +10.5 down to +9.5. That’s sharp money,” Kaminsky said of early action on the underdog Racers.

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

ALL ROUNDS:

*Kansas- 19-2 SU, 15-5-1 ATS vs opp off dog W

*MSU- 26-6 SU, 22-9-1 ATS vs opp off ATS W of 5 or more

*Amer East Conf- 7-15 UNDER (avg 59ppg) -

*Big Sky - 0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS (avg loss 20ppg) -

*Big South- 7-14 UNDER (avg 59ppg) -

*CAA - 26-8 ATS

*OVC - 12-5 ATS

*Southern - 13-6 ATS

*Summitt - 5-12 ATS

*WAC - 2-18 SU, 6-14 ATS

PAC 12 - Favs 70-23 SU
- Dogs 17-35 SU
- Favs of 7> are 10-19 UNDER
- Vs "B" or worse - 42-8 SU, 39-19 ATS

BIG 12 - Favs 7-13.5 - 46-7 SU, 35-17 ATS
- Big 12 vs Big East - Fav is 17-3 SU, 15-5 ATS
- Big 12 vs Big 10 - Fav is 23-3 SU, 20-6 ATS

BIG 10 - Dogs 5< - 41-30 SU, 45-24-2 ATS
- Favs 6> - 66-6 SU, 41-25 ATS
- Big 10 vs SEC - Dogs are 17-16 SU, 23-9-1 ATS

SEC - Dogs 5.5> - 4-22 SU
- Dogs of 5< - 32-15 ATS

MWC - 6-23 SU, 7-22 ATS vs Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Big East

ALL CONF - "A" vs "D" - 87-8 SU, 58-33 ATS
- Better Seed "B" vs "A" - 26-12 OVER
- "B" vs "B"- Better Seed is 13-4 SU, 13-3-1 ATS
- "B" Favs vs "A"- 39-21 OVER

"A"- ACC, B10, B12, Big East, P12, SEC, AAC
"B" - MWC, MAC, A-10, MVC
"C" - HOR, IVY, CAA, WAC, WCC, CUSA, Big West, Big Sky, OVC,SBELT, Summit
"D" - A.East, A.Sun, N.East, PAT, SWAC, B.South, MEAC, MAAC, Southern, Southland

[New York Knight]

Round 1:


#1 seeds off BB W, favs of 25<pts are 20-11 ATS
#3 seeds off SU fav Loss are 42-1 SU, 30-12-1 ATS
#3 off BB Wins are 9-17 ATS
#4 seeds are 28-14 ATS as favs of 9< pts
#4 seeds off SU Loss are 46-25 ATS

Conf Tourney Champs in Rd 1:

Big East- 8-16 ATS, Big West- 3-10 ATS, Colonial- 17-6 ATS, WAC- 6-12 ATS

BEST SU Records in Rd 1:

Kenty- 23-1 SU, Conn- 18-2 SU, Purdue- 15-2 SU, Zags- 13-1 SU, NC- 23-1 SU, Duke- 16-3 SU, GTown- 11-4 SU, Wisky- 13-2 SU, Kan- 25-2 SU, Mary 12-1 SU, Cincy- 16-4 SU


BEST ATS Record in Rd 1:

Butler- 11-1 ATS, Ind- 7-2 ATS, Kent St- 4-1 ATS, GTown- 10-4 ATS, Pur- 11-3 ATS, UCLA- 9-4 ATS, Miss St- 5-2 ATS, Xav 10-1 ATS, A+M 6-1 ATS

WORST ATS Record in Rd 1:

Marq- 3-9 ATS, Ark- 2-5 ATS, Zags- 4-8 ATS, Conn- 5-10 ATS, Clem 0-5 ATS, Tenn 2-10 ATS

BEST Conf ATS Records in Rd 1:

Horizon- 12-7 ATS, MVC- 20-9 ATS, Colonial- 15-5 ATS

**ACC is 66-20 SU L10 yrs in Rd 1

**MWC is 11-22 SU L13 yrs in Rd 1

[New York Knight]

ROUND 2:


#1 seeds are 2-15 ATS off 3+ su,ats Wins
#1 seed favs of 8.5< pts vs opp off SU Dog Win are 16-2 SU, 13-5 ATS
#7 seed dogs of 3>pts are 21-31 ATS (6-16 ATS vs opp off BB W)
#9 seed dogs off SU Dog Win are 8-18 ATS
#10 seeds are 20-9 ATS
#13 or worse seeds are 7-37 SU, 11-31 ATS

BEST SU Records in Rd 2:

Duke- 15-2 SU, UCLA- 12-2 SU, Mich St- 13-2 SU, Ari- 10-1 SU

WORST SU Records in Rd 2:

Miss St- 0-4 SU

BEST ATS Record in Rd 2:

Kan- 13-4 ATS, Vandy- 3-1 ATS, Pur- 9-2 ATS, Louis- 10-3 ATS, Ari- 10-1 ATS,

WORST ATS Record in Rd 2:

Stan- 1-7 ATS

BEST Conf ATS Records in Rd 2:

Pac 10- 16-2 ATS vs opp off BB su,ats Wins
SEC- 16-6 ATS as dogs 2> pts
Big East is 18-9 ATS as dogs
Big 12 is 39-25 ATS
MVC is 9-0 ATS as dogs of 7<

WORST Conf ATS Records in Rd 2:

Big West- 0-5 ATS
Big East- 15-25 ATS Favs
ACC- 12-26 ATS as favs 10<
WAC is 1-5 ATS as DD Dogs
CUSA- 5-18 ATS off su,ats W
CAA is 0-9 SU in Rd 2