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SWEET 16:
#1 seeds off BB su,ats W are 21-7 ATS
#2 seeds are 16-7 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
#4 seeds are 3-10 ATS as dogs vs opp off BB su,ats Wins
#6 seeds are 2-9 ATS off DD ATS Win
#10 or worse are 6-26 SU, 14-18 ATS
** Favs of 6> pts are 43-3 SU, 27-19 ATS if this is 2nd yr in a row in the Sweet 16
** Sweet 16 returnees as #1 or #2 seed are 58-15 SU, if they scored 75>pts in last gm they are 37-6 SU and if off DD Win they are 30-3 SU, 22-11 ATS
**Favs of 9> pts are 22-12 ATS vs opp off BB su,ats Wins
**Dogs of 11> pts are 8-22 ATS
**Dogs off BB ATS Loss are 10-4 ATS
BEST/WORST ATS in Sweet 16:
Mem- 5-1 ATS, MSU- 8-3 SU,ATS, Louis- 7-2 ATS, Pitt- 0-5 ATS, UCLA- 1-9 ATS, GTown- 1-4 ATS, Kan- 6-10 ATS, Xav 6-0 ATS, Kenty 15-3 ATS, Wash 0-4 SU, Syr 2-6 ATS,
CONF trends in Sweet 16:
Big East- 8-16 ATS favs, CUSA- 4-1 ATS Favs, Pac 10- 4-10 ATS dogs, Big 10- 24-19 ATS, SEC- 15-3 ATS dogs, A10- 8-4 ATS vs opp off ATS W, A-10- 7-2 ATS
**Totals 128 or less are 5-14 UNDER
**Lesser Seed is 8-4 SU,ATS w/#6 or worse facing eachother
ELITE 8:
#1 seeds are 12-25 ATS
#4 seeds are 12-4 SU, 11-4-1 ATS
#5 seeds are 6-1 SU,ATS
#6 seeds are 0-8 SU
#7 seeds are 3-6 SU
#8 seeds are 5-1 ATS
#4 or worse vs better seed- 28-9 ATS
**Teams off BB ATS Loss are 7-3 ATS
**Favs off BB DD Wins are 6-17 ATS
**Lower Seed vs higher Seed- 51-26 ATS
**Favs 3< the lower seed is 25-7 SU, 24-8 ATS and 16-4 SU,ATS as dogs
**Favs 8> are 14-4 SU, 5-12 ATS
**Totals of 144.5< are 36-13 OVER
CONF Trends for Elite 8:
A10- 5-1 ATS, Pac 10- 7-4 ATS off DD Win, Big 10- 9-2 ATS off DD Win, Big East- 3-6 ATS off dog Win, Big 12- 3-12 ATS, CUSA- 1-4 ATS
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Final 4:
*#2 seed off DD ATS W is 2-9 ATS
*ACC is 7-3 ATS
*Big East is 2-6 ATS
*Team w/better win % is 15-7 ATS
*Favs 3-7.5pts - 19-8 SU, 18-9 ATS
*#4 or worse is 3-15 SU, 4-12 ATS
*Unequal seeds - Better seed is 27-10 SU, 24-11-2 ATS
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Championship:
*Favs 5< are 12-4 ATS
*#2 is 1-6 ATS off ATS W
*Teams w/ win % of .810< are 0-4 ATS
*Big 10 is 1-8 ATS
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Does Villanova have the easiest road to the Final Four?
While all No.1-seeds end up having to play some stiff competition at some point during the tourney, the reality is Villanova’s potential opponents do not measure up to the Wildcats.
Villanova’s first-round matchup should be a walkover (no 1-seed has ever lost to a 16-seed) and then gears up for a matchup vs the winner of Alabama and Virginia Tech. Mikal Bridges (more on him below) is already considered a top-five perimeter defender in the country and should have no trouble locking up the Tide’s Collin Sexton or the Hokies’ Justin Robinson.
After the first weekend, the Wildcats road gets a bit tougher (as it should) but only one team in their region was ranked in the top ten nationally (Purdue). In order to win the national championship, you have to get out of your region and on paper, Villanova’s bracket may be the weakest of the four No.1 seeds.
Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges are the best 1-2 punch in the tournament ...
The two juniors have been the co-MVPs of the Wildcats all season and will likely end up as All-Americans when the selections are released by the Associated Press. Brunson and Bridges combined for over 37 points per game this season and both shoot over 40 percent from three-point range. Their performance pushed Villanova to an 11.7-point win differential, which is tops in the Big East and fourth in the country.
Mikal Bridges and the Wildcats’ perimeter defense was no joke this season, holding teams to 44 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from three-point range. Brunson, on the other hand, took home Big East Player of the Year honors and saved his best performance for last when he dropped 31 points vs Providence in the conference title game. Having a shot-maker and a perimeter hound is a perfect recipe to march to the national title.
Jay Wright is the best coach everyone isn’t talking about ...
Sure, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, and Bill Self get all the publicity but Jay Wright may be the most consistent coach out of the four. Wright has led the Wildcats to the NCAA tourney almost every year since 2005 (except 2012) and had his squad ranked as a two-seed or higher in March Madness for the last four years.
Villanova has won the Big East Championship three of the last four seasons and that’s very impressive when you consider the Wildcats have only gotten one five-star recruit since 2009 (Jalen Brunson in 2015.)
The Wildcats’ signature wins this season are remarkable when you factor in victories over Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Xavier (twice). Those three teams are all ranked fourth or higher in this tourney and each win was by double-digits. Speaking of double-digits, it’s worth noting that of Villanova’s 36 games this season, 26 of them were won by 10 points or more. This team is experienced, has played in big games and will be ready to excel again in March’s spotlight.
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Since 2012 Big 12 has had 15 Top 3 seeds ... 4 have lost in the 1st round ... Rest of country has 5 in that span.
Texas Tech in danger vs SFA?
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Currently FSU -1
The underdog is 11-0 ATS with 9 outright wins in Florida State's last 11 tourney games.
In Leonard Hamilton's 15 NCAA tourney games as a coach, underdog is 12-3 ATS with 9 outright wins.
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Underdogs in the 8-9 games are 38-18-1 ATS with 34 outright wins since 2003.
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Don't pick more than 2 #1 seeds to reach Final Four.
In 34 of 39 years either 0, 1 or 2 #1 seeds made it.
Since all 4 made in in 2008, just 12 in last 9 years.
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The NCAA Tourney Total Sharps Are Betting on Tuesday
A matchup between Long Island Brooklyn and Radford (6:40 p.m. ET) wouldn’t normally move the needle, but when it’s part of the NCAA tournament First Four, public money will flow. According to our number of bets statistic, tonight’s First Four matchups are driving huge betting handles, which is expected as the Big Dance officially gets underway.
Recreational bettors have flocked toward the total in this matchup, which opened 136 at Bookmaker.eu.
Interestingly, public bettors, usually quick to bet the over, are siding with the under in this matchup, to the tune of 62% of tickets and 92% of dollars wagered.
And yet … the total has moved up 2.5 points across the betting market to 138.5.
Bet Signals at Sports Insights have triggered two separate Steam Moves on the over, once at 137 and again at 137.5.
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Virginia is the 11th #1 seed which began the season unranked.
Of the 10 previous #1 seeds to fit this profile, none reached the Final Four ... only 3 reached the Great 8, while 3 lost in the 2nd round.
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Since 2005, favorites receiving less than 50% of spread tickets have gone 116-88-4 ATS (56.9%) in the NCAA Tournament.
That includes a record of 88-59-2 ATS (59.9%) during the opening week.
Early potential plays include: Texas A&M -3.5 (receiving 18% of tix), Clemson -5 (receiving 21% of tix) and Ohio State -8 (receiving 27% of tix).
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Totals picks that received more than 57% of bets during March Madness last year went 24-13-1.
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Early consensus picks at Odds Shark for the first round ...
68% Providence +3.5 vs Texas A&M
67% Michigan -11.5 vs Montana
65% Kansas -14 vs Penn
65% South Dakota St. +8 vs Ohio State
65% Arizona -9 vs Buffalo
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ATS picks that received more than 53% of bets last year went 16-27-3
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Consensus picks from Odds Shark for tonight's Games ...
66% St. Bonaventure vs UCLA Over 155
58% St. Bonaventure +3.5 vs UCLA
53% Radford vs LIU-Brooklyn Under 137
50% Radford -4.5 vs LIU-Brooklyn
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Since 2008, BPI has given 16 seeds on average a 1.8% chance of beating the 1 seed.
BPI currently gives Pennsylvania a 7.1% chance to beat Kansas.
Only UNC-Asheville in 2012 had a better chance to advance as a 16 seed during that span.
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Virginia DeAndre Hunter... the 6th man of the year in the ACC is out for the year with a broken left wrist
Last year Oregon lost Chris Boucher prior to the NCAA Tournament and still reached Final Four. Can UVA overcome Hunter injury and do the same?
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Radford Enters First Four Matchup vs LIU Brooklyn Red-Hot
Though Radford has not played a game since winning the Big South on March 4, the Highlanders enter their First Four play-in game vs the LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds streaking. Radford has won its past seven games while holding opponents to just 53.6 points per game. Radford and LIU will meet in Dayton on Tuesday with the winner facing No. 1 seed Villanova on Thursday.
LIU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.
The total has gone UNDER in LIU’s last 3 games.
Radford is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.
Radford coach Mike Jones cut his teeth learning under Shaka Smart at VCU, something that becomes apparent when you watch the Highlanders play defense. Radford ranks in the top 30 in the nation in points, assists and field goals allowed per game. Offensively, the team relies heavily on getting into the paint with Radford shooting an average of 21.6 three-pointers per game (163rd in the nation). The team relies heavily on freshman guard Carlik Jones to either drive or kick it to junior forward Ed Polite Jr.
LIU may be the biggest Cinderella story of the NCAA Tournament. The Blackbirds have the second-most losses of any team in the tourney and finished the regular season fourth in the NEC. To the surprise of nobody, LIU made its miracle run through the NEC tournament thanks to the tandem of Raiquan Clark and Joel Hernandez, who averaged a combined 47 points while shooting 66.2 percent from the field. The issue for LIU will undoubtedly be dealing with the big men of Radford, as the Blackbirds traditionally start four guards with senior Zach Coleman the only forward.
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings ...
The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds battle the Radford Highlanders, currently sitting with a 22-12 mark (7-8 ATS). The OVER/UNDER records, always important for totals betting, are 10-13 for the Blackbirds and 4-11 for the Highlanders.
The Power Rankings at OddsShark show No. 211-rated Radford taking on No. 76-rated LIU Brooklyn in this contest.
Recent Outings Betting Recap ...
Radford got 13 points from Carlik Jones en route to a 55-52 victory over Liberty on Sunday at Kimmel Arena.
Joel Hernandez went off for 32 points and added 7 rebounds for good measure, leading LIU Brooklyn to a 71-61 win over Wagner on Tuesday at Spiro Sports Center.
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CG Technology ... on LIUBROOK-RAD
Radford opened -3.5, bet up to 5.5.
"2X more Radford money on account, and 75% Radford money over the counter."
70% of all cash on the total is on UNDER. Total opened 139, down to 136.5
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