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CG Technology ... on STBON-UCLA
UCLA opened -3, ticked up to 3.5, now back to 3
"1.5X more UCLA money on account, and 80% of over-the-counter money on UCLA."
On the total, 65% of money on OVER.
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Faves/Dogs ... 1-1 ATS
Unders ... 2-0
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A 15 seed has upset a 2 seed four times since 2012.
Fifteen's are also 54.5% against the spread vs 2's since 1996.
Odds of a 15 upset? 4-1.
Iona +20.5 / +2500 moneyline
Lipscomb +19.5 / +2000
CS Fullerton +20.5 / +2750
Ga. State +14 / +850
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A 13 seed has beaten a 4 seed in 12 of the past 17 NCAA tourneys.
Odds on a 13 upsetting a 4? -105
Charleston +9.5 / +400 moneyline
Marshall +11.5 / +550
UNC-Green +12.5 / +650
Buffalo +8.5 / +355
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12 seeds in the Round of 64 last 10 seasons of the NCAA tournament:
19-21 straight up
25-14-1 against the spread
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11 is the new 12
Over the past 5 seasons, No. 11 seeds are 11-9 straight up and 12-8 against the spread vs 6 seeds.
Loyola-Chic +2 / +110 moneyline
St. Bonnie's +2.5 / +130
SDSU +4 / +165
ASU or Cuse N/A
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Consensus picks from Odds Shark for tonight ...
56% NC Central +5.5 vs Texas Southern
56% NC Central vs Texas Southern OVER 147
53% Arizona State -1.5 vs Syracuse
50% Arizona State vs Syracuse O/U 143
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3 seeds are 104-20 all-time against 14 seeds ... but ΒΌ of those losses have happened in the last 5 years.
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Bet Labs ...
Gregg Marshall is 6-1-1 ATS when receiving <50% of bets in March Madness
33% of bets on Wichita State -11.5 vs. Marshall
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Round of 64 ... #12 seeds have won at least one game 26 of 29 years
Round of 32 ... 87% of #1 seeds advance to Sweet 16
Sweet 16 ... Only 1 Great 8 team (last 34 years) seeded worse than #11
Great 8 ... One or Two #1 seeds in Final Four 26 of 33 years
Final Four ... Avoid #1 vs. #1 in title game (only 8 of 39 years)
Title Game ... Champ #4 seed or better 28 of last 29 years
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Shaka Smart 7-1 ATS in the tourney as a double-digit seed
#10 Texas +1 vs. Nevada
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Villanova (+570) is the favorite to win the championship.
Since 2012, the pre-tournament favorite has won the title 3 out of 6 times.
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Sweet Home Carolina
Trend: In his career as coach of North Carolina, Roy Williams is 16-0 straight-up and 12-3-1 (80%) against the spread when his team plays an NCAA Tournament game inside the state of North Carolina.
Game: #15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina (-19.5)
16-0 straight-up is begging Lipscomb, but more likely Providence or Texas A&M, to give the Tar Heels some sort of pressure in their home state. North Carolina is winning each of those contests by an average of 20.9 PPG and is covering the spread by an average of 5.4 PPG. The Tar Heels have not lost a game straight-up inside the state of North Carolina since getting clipped 72-71 in the Round of 32 by Ivy League power Penn in 1979, a game coached by Dean Smith. Fun fact: Penn went on to play in the Final Four that year, losing to Michigan State, which subsequently played in the title game against Indiana State, and birthed the rivalry that was Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird.
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Early Boomer
Trend: Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has failed to cover his past six games as a coach in the first round and is 1-8 ATS in his past nine games on the first weekend of the tourney.
Game: #10 Oklahoma vs. #7 Rhode Island (-2)
One of my favorite coaching resumes in NCAA Tournament history: Kruger has coached five different schools to at least the Round of 32 in his career (Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma), but recently he has struggled in the early rounds. Since the 2015 NCAA Tournament, Kruger and the Sooners are 1-3 ATS in this spot. They’ve won all four games straight-up, something that may be a factor this year with Oklahoma seeded 10th and in a tight point spread contest.
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3,282 Cover-Less Days
Trend: Tennessee coach Rick Barnes is in his first season in Knoxville, but while at Texas, he lost his last seven games against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to the 2009 Round of 32 against Duke. When Tennessee plays on Thursday, it’ll mark 3,282 days since Barnes’ last cover in the Big Dance.
Game: # 14 Wright State vs. #3 Tennessee (-12.5)
During the seven-game ATS losing streak, Barnes and the Longhorns were 2-5 straight-up, including 2-3 SU as a favorite. One caveat: None of those Texas teams was a top-3 seed. The last time Barnes was a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament was back in 2008, when he led D.J. Augustin and Texas to the Elite 8. Since March 22, 2009 (the day after Barnes’ last ATS tournament win), no coach has more ATS tourney losses without a win than Barnes.
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Money in the Tournament
Trend: In 2005, now-Arizona coach Sean Miller made his first NCAA Tournament appearance in his second season with Xavier, and Matt Painter became the head coach at Purdue. Since that year, no two head coaches have been more profitable against the spread in the first two rounds of the tournament (play-in not included) than Miller and Painter.
Game: #13 Buffalo vs. #4 Arizona (-8.5)
Game: #15 Cal State Fullerton vs. #2 Purdue (-20.5)
Miller is 12-4-2 ATS (75%) in the first two rounds of the tournament, but most of his early round success came with Xavier. With the Musketeers, Miller was 6-0-1 ATS in the first two rounds, while he is 6-4-1 ATS with Arizona, sneaking out a small profit for bettors.
Painter is 12-4 ATS (75%) in the first two rounds, including 7-2 ATS in the first round. Purdue’s 2-seed this year is the highest ever for Painter, who is 5-1 ATS in the early rounds of the tournament when his team is a top-4 seed.
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A Few Major Issues
Trend: Mark Few and Gonzaga have lost 11 consecutive games against the spread in the NCAA Tournament against opponents from outside the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC).
Game: #13 UNC Greensboro vs. #4 Gonzaga (-12.5)
Few hasn’t covered the spread in the tournament against an opponent outside the power conferences since the Bulldogs’ first-round win over Valparaiso in the 2004 Big Dance. Over this 11-game stretch, Gonzaga is failing to cover the spread by 9.6 PPG, is 7-4 straight-up and has only a +1.1 PPG differential.
Since the 2004 tournament, Few has faced a power conference opponent in 23 games and Gonzaga is 12-10-1 ATS (54.5%). If Few and the Bulldogs fail to cover against UNC Greensboro, it would mark the second time a Southern Conference team covered against Gonzaga during the streak (Davidson, 2008).
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Self-Aware
Trend: Since the 2004 NCAA Tournament, Bill Self’s first with Kansas, only three coaches have multiple losses in the first two rounds (play-in games not included) as a double-digit favorite: John Thompson III (Georgetown), Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) and Self (Kansas).
Game: #16 Pennsylvania vs. #1 Kansas (-13.5)
Game: #15 Iona vs. #2 Duke (-20.5)
Self’s tournament defeats in this spot came by a combined three points, while Krzyzewski’s were a little more forgiving, as his Blue Devils lost by a combined 12 points. Lately for Self, early tournament games haven’t been an issue. Kansas is 5-1 ATS in the first two rounds since the 2015 tournament, with the only slip-up in the Round of 32 to Wichita State.
(Side note: Since 2004, only one conference has defeated three different teams as a double-digit underdog in this situation: Conference USA. This year C-USA’s representative is conference tourney winner Marshall, a 13-seed facing Wichita State.)
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03-14-2018, 02:29 PM
#100
Late Arrival
Trend: Dating back to his first season at George Mason in 2010-11, current Miami Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga is the least profitable coach in the country against the first-half spread, when the game is played in the “postseason.”
Game: #11 Loyola-Chicago vs. #6 Miami-FL (-2)
First Half: Loyola-Chicago (-1)
The term “postseason” refers to the NCAA Tournament, NIT, CBI, CIT and all conference tournament games. Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga is 6-24-2 (20%) against the first-half spread, including 2-7 in the NCAA Tournament and 1-6 in the NIT. In all 32 postseason games, Larranaga’s team is failing to cover the first half spread by 4.3 PPG, and his team’s performance during that half has a large impact on the end result.
When Larranaga’s team covers or pushes the first-half spread, it is 7-1 straight-up over the full game, when it fails to cover the first half, the record falls to 12-12 straight-up.
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