3 Profitable College Football Systems

[New York Knight]

Buying Low on Bowl Teams ...


In the first week of the season it has been profitable to bet bowl teams from the previous year when the line moves against them (example: from +3 to +5 or from -3 to -2). Teams in this scenario are 195-164-3 (54%) ATS since 2005.

This strategy works because bettors are getting a talented team at a discounted price, usually as a result of an overreaction from casual bettors to a piece of information.

This system is most profitable when the previous season’s bowl team is playing its first game at home or on a neutral field.

Record: 100-68-5 (59.5%) ATS

Units won: +26.59

ROI: +15.4%

Pick: Ohio State (-36.5) vs. Oregon State (Saturday, Sept. 1, 12 p.m. ET)

Urban Meyer remains on paid administrative leave as Ohio State investigates his role in the Zach Smith domestic abuse scandal.

With the ongoing probe and Meyer’s status with the program up in the air, the Buckeyes have dropped from an opening of -38 to -36.5.

Coaching matters, but the talent on the field is more important. Oregon State won one game last year, and Ohio State is a national championship contender.

Bettors are getting free points because of off-the-field drama. Meyer’s teams have thrived in this situation.

When the line stays the same or moves against Meyer-coached teams, they are 45-28-1 (62%) ATS since 2005.



Weather ...


Weather is an important factor to consider before placing an over/under bet. In college football, hot temperatures have led to increased scoring.

Air density decreases as temperatures increase, making it easier for quarterbacks to throw down the field and for kickers to make field goals, which increases scoring.

Players also tire more easily under the pressure of intense heat. This can be problematic for the defense as it becomes more susceptible to allowing bigger plays.

In games with average temperatures of 85 degrees or warmer, the over is 304-251-11 (55%) since 2005.

This strategy is most efficient in nonconference games (the lack of familiarity promotes scoring) and matchups in which wind will not be an issue — windy conditions can disrupt the passing and kicking games.

Record: 205-136-6 (60.1%)

Units won: +55.32

ROI: +15.9%

Pick: LSU vs. Miami Florida over 48.5 (Sunday, Sept. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET)

The total opened 45.5 and has increased by three points. A steam move, an indication of sharp money, was already triggered on the over.

Are you worried the value is gone since the total has increased? In games matching this system, the over is 75-42-2 (64%) when the over/under increases by one or more points.



Small Road Dogs ...


The public loves betting the chalk. According to The Action Network’s public betting data, bettors have taken favorites against the spread more than 80% of the time since 2005.

Oddsmakers know casual bettors want to wager on the favorites, thus they will shade the lines leading to value on the underdog.

Recreational gamblers also overvalue home-field advantage. Thus, a contrarian gambler can exploit these square tendencies by betting small road underdogs to win outright.

These teams don’t have a winning record overall, but because we are wagering on plus-money underdogs, it has been a profitable strategy.

Record: 553-606 (47.7%)

Units won: +95.41

ROI: +8.2%

Current Pick: SMU (+155) at North Texas (Saturday, Sept. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET)

This game could be decided by the defense.

North Texas ranked 119th in points per game and 94th in yards per play allowed in 2017 while SMU ranks 21st in returning production on that side of the ball.

The oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair with total set at 71. A play here or there by a defense could be the difference maker, SMU has the better defensive unit in this matchup.

[Luke]

Good info, man. I love reading stuff like this. Post more when you find it