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Tuesday 10-2-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Preview and Predictions 10-02-2018 in MLB
MLB Previews 1st October 2018 by Gracenote
Rockies vs. Cubs Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 10/01/2018
One day after letting their division titles slip away, the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies find themselves facing elimination. Both teams lost division tiebreakers Monday, setting up Tuesday's winner-take-all Wild Card game at Wrigley Field in Chicago.
The Rockies are in the Wild Card game for the second consecutive year after losing to Arizona last season, while the Cubs last played in the Wild Card game in 2015, beating Pittsburgh. "It's the seventh game of the World Series right out of the chute," Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters. Both teams hope to get their bats going after the offenses fell flat Monday. Anthony Rizzo's solo shot accounted for the Cubs' lone run in a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee, while Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story hit back-to-back blasts to get the Rockies on the board in their 5-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32)
Freeland's breakout season closed with an incredible run of 11 consecutive quality starts in which the 25-year-old went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA. Freeland surprisingly pitched better at home than on the road, where he was 7-5 with a 3.23 ERA in 18 starts. That included a loss at Wrigley Field on April 30 in which he allowed three runs over seven innings.
Lester is no stranger to October baseball, as he's set to make his 22nd postseason start and his second in the Wild Card game. The 34-year-old went 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts, and he threw six scoreless frames to beat Pittsburgh in his regular-season finale. Lester is 1-3 with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies, and he allowed two unearned runs over 5 2/3 frames in a no-decision April 30.
WALK-OFFS
1. The Rockies won nine of 10 games prior to Monday's loss - their fifth straight against the Dodgers.
2. Arenado (38) led the NL in home runs, while Cubs INF Javier Baez (111) led the NL in RBIs.
3. Cubs RHP Pedro Strop (hamstring) told reporters he will be available to pitch Tuesday. Strop has not pitched since Sept. 13.
PREDICTION: Rockies 3, Cubs 2
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9720 Class Rating: 82
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2018 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 6 MACHO BREW 3/1
# 7 MASTER CONNOR 4/1
# 5 D. SHIFFLETT 8/1
I think MACHO BREW is a respectable choice. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 83 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most competitive in this group. Posted a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. MASTER CONNOR - Looks very good against this group and should be one of the front-runners. Trainers don't bring horses back this soon just for exercise. D. SHIFFLETT - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Johnston running at this distance are the top in this group. Has been running strongly lately and should be close to the front end early on.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 71
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 11 TRESS LUNAS 5/2
# 2 LITTLE HAYWOOD 9/2
# 9 CAUSE FOR CORONA 4/1
TRESS LUNAS could be the bet in here. Is a strong contender based on figures posted as of late under today's conditions. Looks very good to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Should be considered in here if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last outing. LITTLE HAYWOOD - Might wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the lead recently.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:25pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 90
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#6 ALPHA SLEW (ML=5/2)
#4 NICEANDEZ (ML=8/5)
ALPHA SLEW - This animal has the speed, and no one may be able to keep up with him. NICEANDEZ - This thoroughbred absolutely loves this surface. All his wins have been here at Presque Isle Downs. This gelding is in nice physical condition. Finished second on Sep 23rd. 78-81-91 are last three speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 IT'S ALL REALITY (ML=4/1), #2 TACOMA PARK (ML=5/1), #3 PRINCETONIAN (ML=8/1),
IT'S ALL REALITY - Hard to recommend any animal with decreasing speed figs of 90/83/76. You believe this horse is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly. TACOMA PARK - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit recently. If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed often. PRINCETONIAN - Should be difficult for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. Displayed clues of physical problems in the contest on September 13th at Presque Isle Downs. Tough to back since I think a 'bounce' is in the works this time around.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - NICEANDEZ - His solid final fraction in his last race on September 23rd positions him well with these horses.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 ALPHA SLEW is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
Parx Racing - Race 7
Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta /10 cent Superfecta
Starter Allowance $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 3:37P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * IT'S SHOW TIME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. COMFORTABLE CAT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LUXICHARM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GOBI: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. AGORA: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
5
IT'S SHOW TIME
5/2
6/1
8
COMFORTABLE CAT
9/2
6/1
3
LUXICHARM
4/1
7/1
1
GOBI
6/1
8/1
4
AGORA
8/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
3
LUXICHARM
3
4/1
Front-runner
77
83
90.0
70.8
63.3
8
COMFORTABLE CAT
8
9/2
Front-runner
83
77
88.0
77.2
67.2
5
IT'S SHOW TIME
5
5/2
Front-runner
80
80
82.2
75.2
70.7
4
AGORA
4
8/1
Stalker
83
78
82.0
74.6
66.1
2
PROMISED STORM
2
15/1
Stalker
66
66
74.3
61.1
47.6
6
JEMROSE
6
5/1
Trailer
82
82
65.3
76.3
66.8
1
GOBI
1
6/1
Trailer
82
85
48.2
73.0
65.0
7
KITTY'S RIGHT
7
10/1
Trailer
85
72
44.4
74.6
66.6
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 67
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#5 I GOT THE TIME (ML=5/2)
I GOT THE TIME - Faced tougher last race out at Thistledown. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders in this race. Have to give this mare a chance. Ran a nice race in the last race within the last month or so. Just see her most recent fig, 69. That one fits in this group.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DRESSED IN HEELS (ML=3/1), #3 LIL LUCILLE (ML=7/2), #6 GRAB THE CASH (ML=6/1),
DRESSED IN HEELS - This mount will probably need at least one more run after the lackluster showing following the extended time off. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests of late. Not probable to see her doing it this time around either. LIL LUCILLE - Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'hanger' horse. Run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race at Thistledown at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much in today's race. GRAB THE CASH - This mount hasn't been close to the winner at the finish line recently.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 I GOT THE TIME to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA
ZIA - Race 6
$1 Exacta / Fifty Cent Trifecta / Ten Cent Superfecta 1st Leg of 50 Cent Pick 4
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $37,500 • Post: 3:15P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SUSANS VIOLETTE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUSANS VIOLETTE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. SIBERIAN SQUALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PAY AS YOU GO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
7
SUSANS VIOLETTE
5/2
4/1
9
SIBERIAN SQUALL
7/2
4/1
1
PAY AS YOU GO
10/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
7
SUSANS VIOLETTE
7
5/2
Front-runner
73
76
76.3
74.0
68.5
9
SIBERIAN SQUALL
9
7/2
Front-runner
75
77
66.8
74.0
68.5
3
POSEIDON AQUARIUS
3
12/1
Front-runner
68
64
64.0
59.4
44.9
1
PAY AS YOU GO
1
10/1
Front-runner
71
71
60.0
61.0
52.5
6
DONNA WHO
6
20/1
Front-runner
67
65
54.6
53.8
38.8
8
MONEY ORDER
8
4/1
Stalker
74
75
53.6
64.6
53.1
4
WEDDING DANCE
4
5/1
Stalker
50
68
34.6
62.0
51.0
2
MCGOLDIE
2
8/1
Trailer
74
64
42.8
61.0
54.5
5
FROSTY
5
12/1
Trailer
81
65
37.6
66.2
56.7
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MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 2
Colorado @ Chicago Cubs
Game 937-938
October 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Freeland) 15.598
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 18.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-135); Over
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MLB
Tuesday, October 2
National League
Rockies (91-72) @ Cubs (95-68)
Freeland is 6-0, 2.66 in his last seven starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. He lost 3-2 to the Cubs April 30 in Wrigley, giving up three runs in 7 IP. Team in his starts: 23-10, 10-8 road
5-inning record: 17-10-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-33
Lester is 3-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; over is 12-5 in his last 17. He allowed two runs in 5.2 IP vs Colorado April 30, a game Cubs later won 3-2. Team in his starts: 24-8, 12-5 home
5-inning record: 18-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-32
Colorado won nine of its last 11 games, including three of last four on road. Rockies played at home Sunday, in LA yesterday. Cubs won four of their last six games, all at home. These teams split six games this year, with road team going 2-1 in other team’s ballpark.
Cubs are in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the World Series two years ago. Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009.
______________________________
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Cubs 31-32-14……33-31-11…….64-63
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Cubs 15-76……..23-72……..38
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
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MLB
Weather Report
Tuesday, October 2
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MLB
Tuesday, October 2
Trend Report
Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Colorado is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 15 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Colorado is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
Chi Cubs is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chi Cubs's last 14 games at home
Chi Cubs is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Chi Cubs is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
Chi Cubs is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
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MLB
Long Sheet
Tuesday, October 2
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COLORADO (91 - 72) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 68) - 8:05 PM
KYLE FREELAND (L) vs. JON LESTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 259-457 (-81.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 42-23 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LESTER is 24-8 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 44-16 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 91-72 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 26-17 (+9.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
COLORADO is 44-38 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 66-45 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
COLORADO is 61-47 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 53-39 (+19.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 39-24 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
FREELAND is 23-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 19-11 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 15-6 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 14-7 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1790-1830 (-265.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-37 (-16.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 957-854 (-156.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-27 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 4-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Tuesday this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-40 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 211-243 (-61.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-3 (+1.5 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)
KYLE FREELAND vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
FREELAND is 0-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.154.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)
JON LESTER vs. COLORADO since 1997
LESTER is 2-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.91 and a WHIP of 1.062.
His team's record is 3-3 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-0. (+6.2 units)
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 02 '18, 8:05 PM in 7h
MLB | Rockies vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -130 at sportsbook
1* Free Pick on Chicago Cubs -130
No one expected the Cubs to in a win or go home situation this early into the playoffs, but after Monday's tie-breaker loss to the Brewers that's where they find themselves. The big positive for Chicago is they are well accustomed to the do or die situations in the playoffs and because of that, I think the Cubs have a massive edge here, especially with this game at home.
It also helps that the Cubs have their veteran ace Jon Lester ready to start on regular 4-days of rest. Lester has been sensational down the stretch and comes in with a 1.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also built for these kind of moments and has a 1.91 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rockies.
Colorado will counter with lefty Kyle Freeland, who really came out of nowhere in 2018. Freeland went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 33 starts. However, he was less effective on the road than he was at home and is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 2 career starts against the Cubs. The other big key here is not only that Freeland isn't use to this kind of pressure, but he's pitching on just 3 days of rest.
Cubs are also 38-13 in Lester's last 51 home starts, 35-16 in their last 51 off a loss and 41-18 in their last 59 home games against a left-handed starter. Take Chicago!
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Dustin Hawkins
Oct 02 '18, 8:05 PM in 7h
MLB | Rockies vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -138 at GTBets
Free Play on Cubs -138
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Tony Brown
Tonys *5 mlb free pick
Colorado vs. Chi Cubs, 10/02/2018 20:05 EDT
Total: -115/+7 Over
Sportsbook:
Bodog
Fp: 1 game elimination I think both teams leave it all on the field and the scoring comes early and often making the over my mlb free pick
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Top Dog
MLB CHICAGO CUBS ‑1.5 +140
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Rocky Stone
MLB CHICAGO CUBS ‑135
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Tommy King Wins
MLB COLORADO ROCKIES +125
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Tys Terrific Tips
NHL TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/MONTRÉAL CANADIENS u6
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