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Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-02-2018 at 02:55 PM.
Spartan
2* Texas +7.5
3* LSU -3
Dave Essler
3* Colorado / Arizona over
3* Florida +3
Josh Nagal (CFB 15-10 Last 25 Picks)
Texas +8
Michigan -17.5
Tom Fornelli (CFB 26-15 Last 41 Picks)
Air Force Under 57.5
Emory Hunt (CFB 8-1 Last 9 FSU Picks)
Florida State +12.5
Chris “The Bear” Fallica 2018 CFB Week 6 Picks
Behind the Bets Podcast Picks (Season Record 15-13)
◦Utah St. at BYU – Utah St. (+2.5)
◦Navy at Air Force – Air Force (+3.5)
◦Utah at Stanford – Utah (+5.5)
◦Arizona St. at Colorado – Arizona St. (+2.5)
◦South Fla. at Massachusetts – Massachusetts (+14)
Stanford Steve Coughlin 2018 CFB Week 6 Picks
Behind the Bets Podcast Picks (Season Record 14-7)
◦Georgia Tech at Louisville – Georgia Tech (-4)
◦Alabama at Arkansas – Over (59)
◦Kentucky at Texas A&M – Texas A&M (-6)
◦Northwestern at Michigan St. – Northwestern (+11)
PhillyGodFather
02-Oct-2018: CFB 307 MIDDLE TENN ST +7
02-Oct-2018: 414 WYOMING/HAWAII Ov 57
Indian Cowboy
reg season YTD thru 9/30: 14-11, -1.8 units
8-2 the last two weeks
3-Unit Play. #386. Take Georgia -26 over Vanderbilt (Saturday @ 7:30pm est)
The common place theme is that "oh wow, look, Vanderbilt only lost to Notre Dame 17-22 so naturally they are going to lose by single digits to Georgia!". But, that's now how the progression of ballgames work. And, you have a Georgia team under Kirby Smart that beat Vanderbilt on the road last year by a score of 45-14. And, that team was not as remotely as good as this team. I know it sounds crazy, but just imagine if you took an entire class of 3* kids and replaced them with 5* Talent - and their backups as 5*Talents - that's what Georgia did. Georgia is significantly better this year than they were last year in our books - as they replaced some quality parts on offense but their defense is what is key as they are substantially better there under another year under Smart. Georgia will not overlook Vanderbilt like Notre Dame did. Georgia has the offense from the starter to the backup to points at will and after their lowest output of the year of 38 points against Tennessee, we like them to bounce-back offensively here and pick up a relatively comfortable win.
Joe Gavazzi
Kick Ass Favorite of the Week
Western Michigan (-4) vs. Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ET
So eager to again face this “150 Club” fade team of Eastern Michigan. They are being outrushed 220/5.1 to 110/3.0. We scored a victory against them last week with series dominator Northern Illinois who outrushed Eastern 235-62 and even overcame 3 turnovers for the 26-23 OT victory. Playing home teams to -7 against these “150 Club” fade has been an over 70% proposition. Yet the public will be all over an Eastern Michigan team in their recent 12-1 ATS road dog log. The truth is Eastern has lost 3 consecutive games, all by 7 or less points, and may well be at the emotional breaking point. Western counters with the momentum of 3 consecutive victories including the momentum-building win at Miami, OH last week when they double rushed and outpassed the Red Hawks for a combined 561-368 margin. Look for Western’s 205/5.4 running game to control matters overland. When that happens QB Wassink, who threw for 5 TDP last week, will balance the offence and key this KICK ASS FAVORITE play.
Buster Sports
5% College Football High Roller
Notre Dame -5.5 (5% good to -7. 4% to -9.5)
Ken Thomson
3* N.C.state - 5
Brad powers
3* Texas a&m -5.5
Dave Cokin:
328 Florida Atlantic -14.5:
311 Utah State +2.5
355 Arizona State +2.5
413 Wyoming +3.5
Fred Faour
3* Cincinnati -7
3* Oklahoma st -10.5
NormHitzges
COLLEGE
DOUBLE PLAYS: Utah State +2 1/2 BYU (FRIDAY) Texas +7 1/2 Oklahoma
SINGLE PLAYS:
No.Illinois +3 Ball StateIndiana +26 Ohio StateFlorida +1 1/2 LSUUtah +4 StanfordColorado -2 1/2 Arizona StateWashington -21 1/2 UCLACal -2 ArizonaUNLV -8 New MexicoOklahoma State -9 1/2 Iowa StateToledo -21 1/2 Bowling GreenMemphis -35 UconnKansas State +4 BaylorSan Jose +2 1/2 Colorado State
Greg shaker
3* Mississippi st / auburn under 45
Jason Sharpe
7 Unit Play Take #404 Rice pick'em over UTSA (7:00pm est):
Back to back home wins for UTSA coming into this one but they very easily could have lost both of those games. They were able to catch a big break versus Texas State as TSU lost it's starting quarterback in the 1st quarter of that game and replaced him with a true freshman. The Roadrunners were also able to go +2 in turnovers in the game and used both of those of key points to win by just 4 points but they failed to cover the point spread in the game. UTSA came back last week and they pulled out another ugly victory over arguably the worst FBS team in the country by beating UTEP by just 9 points and once again they failed to cover the point spread while also being out-gained in the contest. UTSA scored two of their three touchdowns in the game coming off turnovers on very short fields (TD drives of 7 and 20 yards).
Rice hasn't looked very good at 1-4 overall on the season but there have been some bright spots if you dig in deep enough with them. First off the Owls have faced each of their last three opponents on the road and all four of their D-1 foes this year are teams that I would consider average FBS teams currently. They were in a tough spot last week having to go into Wake Forest and facing a motivated Demon Deacons team that was off back to back home losses in their previous two games. Rice also had the awful travel spot going to Hawaii earlier in the year to face a Rainbows squad that didn't have to deal with the difficult travel the week themselves in this one as they had played the previous week at home. The Owls actually played a decent game in that one as they had the football down just 6 points in the middle of the 4th quarter and ended up covering the spread. Rice also had another solid showing earlier in the year in their 45-28 point spread covering loss to Houston as they led that game by 10 points midway thru the 3rd quarter. All things added up I like some of the things I've seen from this Rice squad and really like them here back at home in a game against a team they can beat. Take Rice minus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #345 Buffalo -7.5 over Central Michigan (12:00pm est):
I think this line would have been at least been Buffalo -10.5 last week and maybe closer to -14 so were getting some nice line value here on Buffalo. The Bulls looked very good winning their first four games of the year before dropping their first game of the season last week and doing so in ugly fashion by a 42-13 score at home to Army. That non-conference game last week meant nothing to this talented Buffalo squad who's entire focus is to win the Mid-American Conference title. Things got away from the Bulls in that one as Army's strong rushing attack looked to have worn them down as they forced just one punt in the entire game to the Black Knights. You also have to wonder how much time Buffalo put into working on stopping the Army option in practice last week considering it was a non-league game for the Bulls. This is still a good team with some impressive showings on their resume so far this season.
Central Michigan is way down this year having lost a ton of guys since last season as they ranked near the bottom of CFB in returning starters entering the year. All things considered it looks like the Chippewas have put in some gutsy performances early on this year but a few of their closer losses weren't as close as the final scores appear including last week's 31-20 defeat at Michigan State as the Spartans took their foot off the gas in that one allowing CMU to score 17 points in the 4th quarter after trailing by a 30-3 score in the game. CMU pulled off a similar stunt earlier this year after falling behind 21-3 to Northern Illinois and losing by a 24-16 final score. The Chippewas lone win this year was against FCS foe Maine in a game that they gained just 177 yards in the contest which was nearly 100 fewer yards than Maine in what was overall a very ugly contest.
The Bulls are coming off an embarrassing loss last week. Look for a motivated and determined effort here in this one which is exactly what you want from a team that needs to win by a margin. Take Buffalo minus the points here.
4 Unit Play Take #369 California -2 over Arizona (10:00pm est):
Arizona has been very disappointing so far this season as it's becoming more and more obvious that the Wildcats are making some sweeping changes under their 1st year head coach Kevin Sumlin. Don't be fooled by last week's 24-20 loss at home to USC as Arizona was clearly outplayed in that one. The Wildcats were down 24-0 in the 2nd half of that game before they came back late against a Trojans defense that seemed to lay off quite a bit with the big lead. Arizona not only benefitted from a plus three fumble rate in that game, they also scored on a 4th down play with less than two minutes left in the game to get within one possession for the final score to look closer that it was but keep in mind they weren't a real threat in that one as they never got the football back with a chance to win that contest.
California is a team that I liked a lot coming into this year as they finished up last season much improved team going 5-1 against the spread in their last six contests. Expecting this team to improve even more so this year as it's the all important 2nd year under head coach Justin Wilcox. I felt the Bears 21-18 road win over BYU was much more impressive than the actual final score back in week two as they were in complete control of that game leading by two possessions late until giving up a meaningless touchdown with less than a minute left in that game. The same can be said also about their week one win over North Carolina as things did get a little uncomfortable very late after Cal had dominated that contest. Last week's 42-24 loss to Oregon wasn't good but that game was a lot closer than the final scored as the Bears were hurt by a -4 turnover margin in that one and the Ducks were extremely motivated off a heartbreaking loss the previous game. This program overall is way ahead of where Arizona is at currently and they should have no problem covering this low number here. Take California minus the points here.
4 Unit Play Take #412 San Jose State +3 over Colorado State (10:30pm est):
The wrong team is favored in this one. If San Jose State wins last week against Hawaii they likely would be favored here in this one as they blew numerous opportunities in that game before eventually losing that game in five overtimes. SJSU is a much improved team this year in their 2nd year under head coach Brent Brennan. The betting markets haven't caught on to where this team is at yet for a few different reasons as they've only played three games versus FBS foes to start the season, one of which was without their starting quarterback. They also lost but hung tough with a very good Oregon team losing on the road by just 13 points to the Ducks.
Colorado State has fallen way off this season. They lost a ton of guys to graduation from last year and it's shown as they were hammered in games against Hawaii, Colorado and Florida earlier this year. They also were soundly beat at home by FCS foe Illinois State in their last game losing by 16 points. Their lone win so far this year felt like a fluke as they came from 18 points back to pull off a miracle win over Arkansas at home in a game where you have to wonder if the high altitude played a factor as they outscored the Razorbacks scoring the last 25 points of that game over the final 18 minutes. Take San Jose State plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #379 UAB +9.5 over Louisiana Tech (7:00pm est):
Louisiana Tech comes in off a big emotional win last week at North Texas but LA.Tech caught some major breaks in that game as North Texas not only was -2 in turnovers for the game but they also missed two go ahead field goals in the 4th quarter of that game. I feel L.T also caught a break earlier in the season as they beat South Alabama at home by 4 points in a game. It looks like they got the much easier version of South Alabama in that game as the Jaguars didn't make a switch until the 4th quarter of that contes to the guy who's proven to be the much better of their two quarterbacks this season.
UAB has time and time again been undervalued in the betting markets as they come into this one 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 regular season games as an underdog. Even more impressive is the fact they not only covered the spread but they also won 5 of those 6 games straight-up including beating this LA.Tech squad last year when priced in a similar type of price range. Take UAB plus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #357 Liberty -4 over New Mexico State (8:00pm est):
I've been very impressed with this Liberty Flames team early on this year. They won their opener in dominating fashion 52-10 over a decent Old Dominion team. In their next game they were down by just 10 points in the 4th quarter on the road against what's been a solid Army squad and overall it was a lot closer than the final score of 38-14 as Liberty was also hurt by the -3 in turnovers in the game. Last week they had to go on the road and face New Mexico who was off a bye and had two weeks to prepare and Liberty jumped all over them early taking a 42-10 halftime lead and held on in the 2nd half to win that game.
On the other side of things New Mexico State comes into this one 1-4 to start the year. Their lone win was in their last game and I had them in that one over UTEP but the reality is they didn't deserve to win that contest as they were lucky to score touchdowns off a punt return and fumble recovery return also. UTEP got inside the New Mexico State 10 yard line two times in that game where they were only able to score just one field goal. UTEP ended up with more than 100 yards of offense and 9 more first downs in the game overall. The Aggies lost a lot of talent from last year's squad and Liberty was one of the more experienced teams in the country coming into the season. Take Liberty minus the points here.
Scott Spreitzer NCAAF Game Of The Year
8-Unit Play: Take 382 Texas A&M -5.5 over Kentucky (7 p.m., Sat. October 6)
I'm laying the points with Texas A&M on Saturday night. Statistically speaking, Kentucky has surprised many with its perfect start to the season. We feel while they have played well, no doubt about it, they have also benefited from a so-so schedule. The Wildcat running game played a South Carolina defense ranked 92nd against the run and with an offense that leaves a lot to be desired. Kentucky was held to 353 total yards and no second half points by the same SC defense that gave up 30 first downs and 41 points to Georgia. Kentucky gained just 300 total yards in their biggest win, a victory over Mississippi State but the Bulldogs have just 1 TD and 2 FGs in SEC play the last two weeks. Saturday night in College Station, the one-dimensional Wildcats will finally face a team loaded on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Kentucky ranks 118th in yards passing per game. If they can't run the football they will find the going quite rough. Guess where the Aggie defense is at its best? Yup...defending the run, where they rank 3rd in the nation in yards rushing allowed per game. A&M also owns the best offense Kentucky will have seen, averaging over 510 yards per game and doing it with balance. QB Kellen Mond leads an attack that averages nearly 280 yards passing and more than 230 yards rushing per contest. And then there's the intangibles...Kentucky playing at Kyle Field for the first time...on a Saturday night! A&M has two losses on the season, while covering 4 of 5. They lost to Alabama, arguably the best CFB team in 20+ years. They lost by 2 to Clemson. And while they could have easily letdown last week against Arkansas, the defense was stout, holding the Hogs to 2.1 yards per carry and 249 yards of total offense. This line would have been around Texas A&M -14 before the season began. We understand the need for adjustments...but this one has been brought down a tad too much. We're laying the points with Texas A&M on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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