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Ugly Dogs - Week 7
Tom Wilkinson
If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to go against the grain. One of the ways to do that is to take teams that no one else wants to bet. I call them ugly dogs and last week those ugly dogs went 4-0 against the spread and in the last two weeks they are sizzling 9-1 ATS. We have four plays for this week that we’ll be backing and taking the points. Let’s look at the Week 7 ugly dog picks.
New York Giants +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Does anyone want a part of the Giants with Eli Manning at quarterback? The Giants are 1-5 and have looked awful on offense with Manning under center. The Giants are a complete train wreck with Odell Beckham Jr. complaining constantly and with a defense that rarely makes big plays. The Falcons are nothing special, but bettors still believe in Atlanta and at least the Falcons have an offense. Atlanta is playing at home and they should be able to score plenty of points.
Why is the line only six points? The Giants have looked bad and Atlanta is playing at home on a Monday night. The public will be backing the Falcons in this game and that helps out cause. It is definitely ugly taking Eli Manning and the Giants but that is what it is all about with the ugly dogs. We’ll take the Giants plus the points in this one.
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MNF – N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: The ‘over’ has gone 4-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season and fans have been treated to points by the Falcons (34.5 PPG) and their opponents (33.2 PPG). I actually thought this total would be a tad higher due to Atlanta’s defense but New York hasn’t shown much firepower on offense (19.5 PPG). While the Giants have struggled offensively, their two best scoring efforts came on the road at Houston (27) and at Carolina (31). Knowing Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody, you can see why sharp bettors have jumped on New York in this spot.
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MNF - Giants at Falcons
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) pulled off a terrific comeback two weeks ago to take a 31-30 lead over Carolina with a minute remaining. The Panthers went down the field and booted a 63-yard field goal to edge New York, 33-31, but the Giants cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs. New York followed up that close shave defeat with a dreadful effort in last Thursday’s 34-13 home setback to defending champion Philadelphia to suffer its third straight defeat.
Dating back to the 2017 season, the Giants own an 0-7 ATS mark off an ATS win, which includes double-digit home defeats to the Saints and Eagles in this situation. The Eagles jumped out to a 24-6 halftime lead and never looked back as the lone highlights for the Giants belonged to rookie running back Saquon Barkley who picked up over 50 yards on two separate plays. Besides that, star receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. walked off the field before halftime with the offense on the field, while embattled veteran Eli Manning posted his worst quarterback rating of the season (66.1).
The Falcons (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) dug themselves a 1-4 hole in the tough NFC South through five games, but Atlanta picked up its second divisional victory in a 34-29 home triumph over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes and racked up 354 yards through the air, while the 2016 MVP has now thrown for three or more scores in three games this season.
Atlanta topped the 31-point mark for the fourth time in four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while Ryan has not been intercepted in four straight contests. The running game never got going with Devonta Freeman still sidelined (70 total yards), but All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones hauled in 10 catches for 143 yards in spite of not scoring a touchdown this season. Since losing to Tampa Bay in the 2016 opener, the Falcons have won seven of their past eight home games against division foes.
OVER EASY
As mentioned above, the Falcons are lighting up the scoreboard, especially at home. All four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have sailed OVER the total, even the high total of 57 last Sunday against Tampa Bay. The Atlanta defense is busted up due to injuries, as the only UNDER for the Falcons this season hit in the season opener at Philadelphia. The Giants have allowed 33 points or more in three straight games, while the past two road games for New York have cashed the OVER against Houston and Carolina.
SERIES HISTORY
The Giants are making their first visit to Atlanta since getting blanked by the Falcons in 2012 in an ugly 34-0 road defeat. The most recent meeting between these two NFC squads came at Met Life Stadium in 2015 as the Falcons rallied for 14 fourth quarter points in a 24-20 triumph as two-point underdogs. Ryan torched the Giants for 363 yards passing, while Jones caught 13 passes for 135 yards. The last time these teams met on a Monday night came back in 2007 at the Georgia Dome when the Giants ripped the Falcons, 31-10, the season before Atlanta drafted Ryan.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
New York has not been a reliable team to back on Monday nights over the last few seasons by going 2-5 SU/ATS since 2014, including a 14-point home loss to Detroit last season. The Falcons have won in each of their past four appearances on Monday night since 2015, while hosting their first Monday night contest since 2015, when Atlanta edged Philadelphia in the season opener, 26-24.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson is back this week, first giving his take on the Big Blue, “A lot of the negative attention has fallen on Manning, a two-time Super Bowl winner but past his prime at age 37. Ironically Manning is on pace for his best completion rate of his career at nearly 69 percent while his current 7.23 yards per attempt average is his highest since 2014. Manning does have eight turnovers in six games which some of which he deserves blame for, some of it can be pinned on the offensive line, something many fans expected to be addressed in the NFL draft last spring but the Giants opted for the luxury of Barkley in the backfield. Barkley has done his part posting 5.2 yards per carry while already catching 40 passes as the focal point of the offense.”
On the other side, the Falcons are thriving at quarterback following a slow start in Week 1, “It has been a resurgent season for Ryan, who is fourth in QB Rating at this point in the season while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He is third in the NFL in passing yards and has a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ryan has needed to do the heavy lifting with Freeman injured and his task could be more difficult this week with star rookie Calvin Ridley injured last week and a question mark for Monday,” Nelson notes.
Game Props – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Eli Manning
OVER 278 ½ (-110)
UNDER 278 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Eli Manning
OVER 1 ½ (-140)
UNDER 1 ½ (+120)
Total Receiving Yards – Odell Beckham, Jr.
OVER 93 ½ (-110)
UNDER 93 ½ (-110)
Total Completions – Matt Ryan
OVER 26 ½ (-110)
UNDER 26 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan
OVER 2 ½ (EVEN)
UNDER 2 ½ (-120)
Will Julio Jones score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Falcons opened up as six-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday when Week 7 lines were released. However, that number has dipped down to Atlanta laying as low as 3 ½ points at several books. The total opened at 54 ½, but is slowly going down to 53 and even 52 ½ at some books in spite of Atlanta’s high-scoring outputs at home.
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Dustin Hawkins
Oct 22 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NHL | Avalanche vs Flyers
Play on: Flyers -118 at BMaker
Free Play on Flyers -118
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Ross Benjamin
Oct 22 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NHL | Avalanche vs Flyers
Play on: Avalanche +116 at betonline
Dating back to last season, Ross has gone an outstanding 10-3 (77%) L13 with his NBA 10* Top Play totals picks. Ross also has a winning total on the Monday night NFL game between the Giants/Falcons (8:15 ET/ESPN). Ross’ NFL totals picks are 7-2 (78%) L9 and his NFL picks overall have gone 31-20 (61%) L51. Spend a little to make a lot with one of the world’s prominent sports handicapping professionals!
Colorado @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM ET
Game# 1-2
Play On: Philadelphia +116
Colorado is coming off road wins of 5-3 against New Jersey and 3-1 versus Carolina during its last 2 games played. Conversely, Philadelphia is coming off a 5-2 home win over New Jersey in their previous game. The Flyers are 0-3 this season following a win. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 6-12 at home against non-conference opponents and it includes 0-2 this season. Bet on Colorado as a money line underdog for my Monday 10/22 free pick.
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ASA
Oct 22 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NHL | Avalanche vs Flyers
Play on: Flyers -120 at 5Dimes
ASA PLAY ON Free Pick Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Colorado Avalanche, Monday @ 7:05 PM ET
The Flyers lost badly at Colorado earlier this month but that followed a huge win for Philadelphia in their opening night game over the defending Western Conference Champion Golden Knights in Vegas. In other words, it was legitimately a flat spot for the Flyers and the Avalanche took advantage. Now, on Monday, the Flyers get their opportunity for revenge as they host the Avs. Keep in mind, Colorado was great at home last season but only won 15 road games. Only one team (Arizona) in the entire Western Conference won fewer road games than the Avalanche last season! In other words, this is the ideal spot for revenge. The Flyers will be fully focused as they don't play again until Thursday and that game is on the road. Bet Philadelphia on the money line (-) in evening action Monday.
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Mike Williams
Oct 22 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Hornets vs Raptors
Play on: Hornets +9½ -109 at GTBets
1* on Hornets +9½ -109
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Bobby Conn
Oct 22 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Hurricanes vs Red Wings
Play on: Hurricanes -156 at BMaker
1* Free Play on Hurricanes -156
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Kenny Walker
Oct 22 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Hurricanes vs Red Wings
Play on: Red Wings +140 at GTBets
Free Pick on Red Wings
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Hunter Price
Oct 22 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Hornets vs Raptors
Play on: Hornets +9½ -105 at Bovada
1* Free Pick on Hornets +9½ -105
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Totals Guru
Oct 22 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Pacers vs Wolves
Play on: OVER 225 -110
Free Total Annihilator On Pacers vs Wolves over 225 -110
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Dave Price
Oct 22 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Pacers vs Wolves
Play on: Wolves -2 -105 at BMaker
Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Minnesota Timberwolves -2
The Key: Minnesota is off to a tough-luck 1-2 start this season. They lost by 4 points at San Antonio and by 4 points at Dallas. They won their only home game 131-123 over the Cavaliers. I think we are getting the Timberwolves cheap tonight as only 2-point home favorites over the Pacers. Indiana’s 2-1 start featured a pair of home wins over the Grizzlies and Nets, but a 17-point loss in their lone road game at Milwaukee. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Minnesota.
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Mark Wilson
Oct 22 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Knicks vs Bucks
Play on: OVER 224½ -110
Free Play on Knicks vs Bucks over 224½ -110
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Mike Lundin
Oct 22 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Knicks vs Bucks
Play on: OVER 225½ -118
#NBA FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a 118-101 win over Indiana in their home opener at newly built Fiserv Forum on Friday. Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 26 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists. He had put up 22 points and 11 rebounds by halftime. As a team, the Bucks hit 17 shots from behind the arc and rank second in the NBA with an average of 40 3-point attempts per game.
Tonight they'll host a Knicks team looking to get back on track following back-to-back defeats since a 126-107 triumph over Atlanta in its season opener.
The Knicks have been held to an average of 103 ppg through their last two games, but I think they'll contribute enough here to push this game over the total.
Free pick on OVER.
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Sal Michaels
Oct 22 '18, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Giants vs Falcons
Play on: Giants +4 -105 at Bovada
Free Play on Giants +4 -105
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Steve Janus
Oct 22 '18, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Giants vs Falcons
Play on: Giants +4½ -110 at Bovada
1* Free Sharp Play on Giants +4½ -110
My money is on the Giants to cash in a cover on the road against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. The public is coming in on Atlanta at close to a 70% clip, yet we have seen this number only get smaller. I believe it's for good reason. The Falcons defense has been decimated with injuries and it's not going to get any better. The Giants are due for an offensive explosion and are in desperate need of a win after their 1-5 start. Key here is there's still plenty to play for, as a win would leave New York just 3-games back of first place Washington in the NFC East. Bet the Giants +4.5!
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Cole Faxon
Oct 22 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Bulls vs Mavs
Play on: Bulls +6 -105 at 5Dimes
FREE PLAY on Bulls +6 -105
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 22 '18, 9:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Grizzlies vs Jazz
Play on: UNDER 218 -110
1* Free Pick on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 218
We are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in Monday's Western Conference clash between the Grizzlies and Jazz. Both these teams put on a show in the 1st half of their last game. Memphis had a franchise-record 77-points in the 1st half against the Hawks, while Utah threw up 81 on the Warriors.
It simply has the number here too high, as neither of these teams are really built to be offensive juggernauts. Utah is known more for their defense and after giving up 124 at home to Golden State, I expect a bigger focus on the defensive side of the ball.
As for Memphis, I'm not reading anything into what a team does offensively against the Hawks, who are arguably the worst team in the league. The Grizzlies only managed 83 points in their opener at Indiana and for them to be competitive in the west, they are going to have to grind out games with their defense.
These two teams played 3 times last season and the most they combined for any of the 3 matchups was 204 points. Two of the three didn't eclipse 185 points. Now the books are calling for close to 220 points. I just don't see that happening.
UNDER is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 home games after scoring 110 or more points in two straight games and 6-2 in the Grizzlies last 8 after scoring more than 125. Take the UNDER!
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Brandon Lee
Oct 22 '18, 9:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Grizzlies vs Jazz
Play on: Grizzlies +10½ -113 at pinnacle
10* FREE NBA PICK (Grizzlies +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with Memphis as a double-digit dog against the Jazz. I just think this is way too many points for Utah to be laying with the way they have struggled on the defensive side of the ball early on. It's easy to ignore the 124 points and 56.3% shooting the Jazz allowed to the Warriors in their last game, because that's what Golden State does to teams, but they also allowed 117 points and 51.6% shooting to the Kings in their season opener. Memphis couldn't have played or shot any worse than they did in their opener at Indiana, where they went a dreadful 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. I like the way they responded in their 131-117 win over Atlanta and this is a Grizzlies team that should be much improved with some nice additions and the return of point guard Mike Conley, who missed most of last year with an injury. If Utah is still salting their wounds from the last second loss to the Warriors, Memphis could win this game outright. Give me the Grizzlies +10.5!
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Jack Jones
Oct 22 '18, 10:05 PM in 4h
NBA | Wizards vs Blazers
Play on: Wizards +5 -108 at 5Dimes
Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Washington Wizards +5
The Washington Wizards have opened the season 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS with their two losses coming to the Heat and Raptors by a combined 5 points. It’s safe to say that the Wizards are highly motivated for a victory tonight when they take on the Portland Trail Blazers to try and get their first win of the season.
The Blazers may be overvalued now after their 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start with wins over the Lakers by 9 and Spurs by 13. I don’t think they’ll be playing with as much sense of urgency as the Wizards will be tonight.
Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series recently. The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Wizards have won outright as underdogs in their last two trips to Portland, and they lost in overtime previously. They should be able to pull off the upset again here or at least stay within the number. Bet the Wizards Monday.
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