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Service Plays Saturday 8/31/19
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Essler 3* GOM
Missouri -17
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 7:00PM
192 Florida St. -4.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 191 Boise St. triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3-star (192) Florida St -4 over Boise St in Jacksonville, FL. 7:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st. I'm buying a Florida State team that is off their worst season since 1976 as I expect to see some regression to the mean here. The Seminoles return 16 starters and are much improved on both sides of the ball. Obviously, year one under head coach Willie Taggart wasn't a good look. However, note that in his career, his teams improved upon the previous year's season win total in 6 of his previous 8 years (one win total remained the same). I reached out to an FSU insider this week that watches practice each day and the first week so far has looked good for the Noles. Meanwhile, Boise St has to replace a 4-year starting QB, a 1,400-yard rusher and their top 2 receivers. This game will be played in Jacksonville and as of a few weeks ago, FSU has sold 34,000 tickets for the game. Boise State requested only 2,500 tickets. There will be at least 90% Florida St fans in the crowd.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 10:30PM
214 Southern Cal -10.0(-110) William Hill vs 213 Fresno St. triple-dime bet
Analysis:
USC needs a feel-good win here after a disappointing 2018 season. Head coach Clay Helton is on the hot seat but he did make a great hire in bringing in O.C. Graham Harrell from North Texas whose offenses averaged 35 ppg the last two years. Harrell inherits a lot of talent as QB JT Daniels is back after a "so-so" true freshman season along with one of the best sets of WR's in the country. Meanwhile, Fresno St is being over-priced because the Bulldogs are coming off their best season in school history (12 wins). I look for the Bulldogs to take a couple steps back this season as they are No. 129 in the country in returning experience with only 9 starters back. Fresno will be starting a brand new QB at night in a freshly renovated L.A. Coliseum. The Trojans should roll here.
I like this pick as a 3-star up to -12.5...2-star from -13 to -13.5. 1-star at -14.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 8:00PM
209 Louisiana Tech 21.0(-110) Westgate vs 210 Texas single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (209) Louisiana Tech +21 over TEXAS. 8:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I think Texas is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. The Longhorns have just 8 returning starters (tied for last in country)as they lose their leading rusher, leading receiver and entire front 7 on defense. However I feel there was an overreaction to their Sugar Bowl win vs an un-motivated Georgia team and note that the Horns won 10 games last year but 7 of those games were by a TD or less. Tom Herman is a great underdog coach but in his career as a favorite, he is just 14-22-2 ATS (39%). Note that Texas has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in each of their previous two season openers (lost both games outright to Maryland). Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. Finally, Texas has a huge look-ahead game vs LSU on deck.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 4:00PM
187 Virginia Tech -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 188 Boston College single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (187) Virginia Tech -3.5 over BOSTON COLLEGE. 4:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I have this line power-rated at VT -6.5. The mis-pricing here comes with a Virginia Tech team that had their first losing season since 1992 last year. However, this year's team will be much improved with 16 returning starters including 10 on the defensive side. The Hokies D should be plenty motivated in the final year under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster. As far as Boston College goes, I expect the Eagles to take a step back this season especially with only 9 returning starters. The betting public usually just looks at the skill positions and BC does return their starting QB, RB and top WR. However, they are woefully inexperienced in most other areas including the defensive secondary.
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Dave Cokin:
164 Nebraska -34
169 Ball State +17
181 South Carolina -7.5 (wait on this one to see if you can get -7, if not -7.5 is okay)
193 SMU +2.5
204 Pittsburgh +3
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FEZZIK
3* Southern Cal -10
2 stars NDame UNDER 9.5 wins -150
2 stars Texas UNDER 9 wins
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JR ODONNELL
3* Southern Cal -13.5
3* Texas -20.5
3* GOM
Boise St. +5.5
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LV Wolf
Aub -3
N Western 7 (-125)
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Senior Member
- Rep Power
- 8
Picks from Podcast
Stanford Steve
Wake -3.5
Boston college +5
Northwestern +6.5
Ohio st over 63.5
Kentucky under 61.5
small play on wake over 59.5
Chris Fallica (Bear)
Byu +6.5
Wake -3.5
Coastal Carolina +6.5
Georgia Southern +27.5
They also had a bunch of leans. got picks from the recap Steve does at end.
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thelinebacker
Aub -3.5 ($113 bet for $100 bettor)
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Alex B. Smith Sports
College Football
8/31 2* Florida State -4.5 (Best Bet)
8/31 1* Liberty +18.5
8/31 1* Northern Illinois -4 -120
8/31 1* Nebraska -22 (First Half)
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Senior Member
- Rep Power
- 8
Scott Van Pelt
217-195-8 all time
Neveda +11
Liberty +18
Georgia Southern +27.5 (Said buy to 28)
Mississippi +5.5
ECU +17
Leans
Boston College
Toledo
Pitt Umass
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Doc Sports
4*-Indiana-17'
4*-Toledo+12
2*-Pitt Panthers+3
7*-Oregon+3'
3*-La Tech+20'
4*-Houston+23'
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole
Double Play
Florida State -6.5 over Boise State
Single Plays
Toledo +11.5 over Kentucky
Georgia Southern +27.5 over LSU
Georgia -21 over Vandy
Louisiana Tech +20.5 over Texas
Northwestern--Stanford under 47.5
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Alan Harris - CFB
Saturday CFB:
3 Unit Play. Take #167 Akron +18.5 over Illinois (12:00 PM, Saturday, August 31, Big 10 Network)
Illinois has posted a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games played on FieldTurf and they have failed to cover the number in each of their last five games played in the month of August. They are also just 3-10 ATS in their last thirteen games where they faced a team from the MAC and they closed out their 2018 season by going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Throw in the fact that the Illini gave up 39.4 PPG last season and that the Zips are returning seven starters on offense and we like Akron to be able to score enough to stay within the number in Champaign on Saturday afternoon.
7 Unit Play. Take #171 Toledo +12 over Kentucky (12:00 PM, Saturday, August 31, SEC Network)
Kentucky has posted a 4-12 ATS record in their last sixteen non-conference games and they have gone an awful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home contests. The Wildcats are also coming into the 2019 season off their best season in 40+ years and we expect there to be some sort of regression with them here, especially early on. They lost their best player on both sides of the ball and they now have to open up against a Toledo team that returns both of their QB's and that put up over 40 PPG last season. Throw in the fact that the Rockets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games along with the fact that Kentucky is an awful 0-10 ATS in their last ten at home where they were listed as the favorite and we're taking the points here with Toledo in a game that we have a bit closer than the odds makers do in
4 Unit Play. Take #175 Mississippi +5.5 over Memphis (12:00 PM, Saturday, August 31, ABC)
Memphis has posted a 3-8 ATS record in their last eleven non-conference games and they have failed to cover the number in ten of their last eleven games versus a team from the SEC. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has been pretty good in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference contests. Throw in the fact that the Rebels are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five head to head meetings between the two teams and we're taking the points with them here in a game that we think they have a decent chance to win outright in Memphis on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #181 South Carolina -10.5 over North Carolina (3:30 PM, Saturday, August 31, ESPN)
South Carolina has posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven neutral site games and they have gone an excellent 12-5 ATS in their last seventeen games versus a team from the ACC. North Carolina, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five non-conference and they have failed to cover the number in five of their last six neutral site contests. Throw in the fact that the Gamecocks have won fourteen straight season openers against non-conference teams and we're laying the points with them here in a game that our numbers have them winning by 14+ in Charlotte on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #187/188 Virginia Tech vs Boston College Under 58.5 (4:00 PM, Saturday, August 31, ACC Network)
The Hokies closed out their 2018 season by going under the total in five of their last seven road games while the Eagles were 4-1 to the under in their last five games overall. Throw in the fact that BC is also 44-21-3 to the under in their last 68 ACC games, that they are going to try and control the clock with the running game and that the Hokies return ten on defense and we're playing the under as we don't see how this one gets close to the total in Chestnut Hill on Saturday afternoon.
6 Unit Play. Take #193 SMU +2.5 over Arkansas St (7:00 PM, Saturday, August 31)
We think we have two teams going in opposite directions here when SMU hits the road to take on Arkansas St. The Red Wolves are replacing last years Sun Belt player of the year at the QB position and they come into the game on Saturday with new offensive and defensive coordinators. SMU, on the other hand, had a respectable 5-7 season last year, a year where they played four teams in the Top 20 and now they return ten of their top eleven tacklers on defense along with a group of higher end WR's that we think will click immediately with QB transfer Shane Buechele from Texas. Throw in the fact that the Red Wolves usually have a pretty strong home field advantage and that they are giving less than a FG here and we think the wrong side is the favorite here so we're taking the points with the Mustangs in a game that we have them winning outright on the road on Saturday evening.
4 Unit Play. Take #198 Iowa -21.5 over Miami (OH) (7:30 PM, Saturday, August 31, FS1)
Iowa has posted a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five non-conference games and they have gone an excellent 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games played on FieldTurf. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus a team from the Big 10 and they are an even worse 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference contests. Throw in the fact that Iowa is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games and we're laying the big number with them here in a game that we think they win in blowout fashion in Iowa City on Saturday night.
3 Unit Play. Take #201 Georgia -22 over Vanderbilt (7:30 PM, Saturday, August 31, SEC Network)
Georgia has posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four SEC games and they have gone an excellent 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road contests. They have also added one of the best recruiting classes in the country to a team that already had NFL caliber players at many positions. As for Vandy, they are young and undersized in this match-up with a conference big boy and when you throw in the fact that they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home where they were listed as an underdog, we're laying the points with Georgia in what we expect to be an early season statement game from a team that has thoughts of being the four-team playoff at the end of the season.
3 Unit Play. Take #207 Oregon +3.5 over Auburn (7:30 PM, Saturday, August 31, ABC)
At first glance, this one may look easy in laying the points with an SEC team over a team from a Pac-12 Conference that hasn't looked great in recent years and lost this same game last year with Washington falling to Auburn. However, this Ducks team has a few things going for them that the Huskies just didn't have last year. Oregon brings back an offensive line that returns a total of 153 starts, making them the most experienced offensive line in the country in the last eight years. They also have a huge advantage under center with Justin Herbert, who will be making his 29th career start compared to true freshman Jacob Nix, who will be making his first start ever for the Tigers. This probably would have been a bigger play for us if the Ducks weren't 4-12 straight up away from home over the last three seasons but we think they have enough to get the win here so we're taking more than a field goal here with them in Arlington on Saturday evening.
5 Unit Play. Take #209 Louisiana Tech +20.5 over Texas (8:00 PM, Saturday, August 31, Longhorn Network)
In what will probably be a reoccurring theme for us this season, we're playing against the Texas Longhorns as we think they are one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the 2019 season. For some reason, they are listed as the #10 team in the country yet they lost all of their front seven on defense, their leading rusher and receiver and they return only eight overall starters, placing them tied for last in the country with that number. They're also getting a little push due to their bowl win over Georgia but we have a feeling that the Bulldogs just didn't want to be there after missing out on the CFB Playoff. Throw in the fact that Texas HC Tom Herman is an awful coach when listed as the favorite (14-22-2 ATS), that Texas has lost each of their last two season openers outright where they were listed as a double-digit favorite, that the Longhorns have a big match-up with LSU on deck and that LA Tech HC Skip Holtz is on a lights out 14-4-1 ATS run as an underdog and we're taking the big number here with the Bulldogs in a game that we think they keep close until the final buzzer in Austin on Saturday night.
3 Unit Play. Take #213 Fresno St +13.5 over USC (10:0 PM, Saturday, August 31, ESPN)
Fresno has posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six non-conference games and they have gone an impressive 14-3-1 ATS in their last eighteen road contests. The Trojans, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games and they are an awful 3-9 ATS in their last twelve home games. Throw in the fact that USC is also just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall while Fresno is 27-7-1 ATS in their last 35 and we're taking the points here with the Bulldogs in a game that we have a bit closer than the odds makers do in LA on Saturday night.
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LV Wolf
New Mexico St Over 65
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Senior Member
- Rep Power
- 16
GC: NCAAF
Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 College Football side and 3 More Best Bets including Oregon at Auburn. All from powerful week 1 systems. We also have Another big MLB Card up which swept last night. NCAAF Comp Play below
The College Football Comp Play is on Akron plus the 19 points at noon eastern. In this game we have a nice system that has hit 30 of 38 times long term by playing against game 1 favorites of 10 or more that won 5 or less last season vs a team that won 4 or more. Which play against Illinois here today. Illinois has failed to cover 4 straight as a favorite and barely beat MAC Conference Kent last season in their opener as an 18 point favorite as they have now failed to cover 10 of 13 vs MAC teams and the last 5 in August games. Akron has covered the last 2 as a road dog of 17 to 21 so we will play on them to keep it closer than expected. On Saturday we storm into labor day weekend with a Big College Football card led by an Executive level masterpiece, Oregon vs Auburn and 2 more Best bets. We also have another big MLB Card after sweeping last night. See us on facebook to jump on. For the Free play take Akron plus the 19. ROB V- Golden Contender Sports
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