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Service Plays Saturday 9/21/19
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DREW MARTINFOOTBALL PLAYS
- Game: (325) Temple at (326) BUFFALO U
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Temple -14.0 (-108)
View Analysis
2% at 16.5
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 3:30PM
349 Washington -5.5(-110) Westgate vs 350 BYU triple-dime bet
Analysis: How much does BYU have left in the tank after back-to-back outright upsets in overtime over Tennessee and USC? Now they face a Washington team fresh off a blowout win over Hawaii. These two met last year and it was a total mis-match as Washington won 35-7.
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+EV: CFB 3u: 354 Mississippi Rebels -128 (Saturday, September 21st)
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Dave Cokin:
Florida -14
App St +3
Baylor -26.5
Nevada -14
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TEDDY COVERS
Game:(343) MICHIGAN at (344) WISCONSIN
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: MICHIGAN 3.5 (-110)
View Analysis
4% Take Michigan (#343)
The concept here is as simple as it gets: Buy low, Sell high. The lookahead line this summer at the Westgate Superbook ‘Games of the Year’ was Michigan -7.5 in Madison. The markets are saying that there is an 11 point difference between what these two teams were supposed to be at what they actually are after a two game sample size. I’m not buying that argument one iota.
Wisconsin has an amazing statistical profile after shutting out USF and Central Michigan by a combined 110-0 score, two teams that couldn’t match up with the Badgers in the trenches. Michigan, on the other hand, didn’t cover the spread in their opener against Middle Tennessee State and never sniffed a pointspread cover in a tough, gutty win against Army. The betting markets are viewing the two games that each team has already played as hugely significant ATS this week. I couldn’t disagree more.
Army was a tough opponent for Michigan – hungry, disciplined and focused with a unique style of offense. USF and Central Michigan were easy opponents for Wisconsin because they couldn’t hang tough in the trenches – period. The disparate final scores for those games means NOTHING moving forward……..except for its effect on the pointspread.
The Wolverines won three road games last year and four road games the year before; not a team that I hesitate to back on the highway. They’re coming off a tough test – that they passed – and a bye week; primed to play their best game of the season here. The Badgers are taking a HUGE step up in defensive class. Much like Maryland – Temple last week; I have little hesitation fading a team off multiple blowout wins now facing a ‘real’ opponent with an inflated pointspread! Live dog here! Take Michigan.
Line Parameter: 4% at +3 or higher, 3% at +2.5 or lower.
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ROB VENOFOOTBALL PLAYS
- Game: (311) UL MONROE at (312) IOWA STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 56.0 (-110)
UL-Monroe @ Iowa State Analysis
Like the scheduling situation here in this one as UL-Monroe comes in off of a bye week while Iowa State enters after their heartbreaking 18-17 loss to in-state rival Iowa. Don’t envision this as a payday throwaway game for the Warhawks who boast an explosive offense led by sr. QB Caleb Evans. Fully understand the opposing defenses they’ve faced to date are not in the same category as the Cyclones but their run/pass offensive balance, wide open play calling and dual threat QB are all productive features that ISU’s defense has not encountered thus far. Other side of the coin signals an offensive breakout for Iowa State which steps down significantly in defensive class this week. Monroe was punished for 243 rushing yards on 6.6 per carry by FCS Grambling State en-route to 407 total yards while Florida State torched them for 501 yards gaining 219 on the ground and 282 through the air. Look for Iowa State QB Brock Purdy who just went 25/35/327/71.4% completions versus the rugged Iowa defense to have a field day here while the ground game should click as well. Realistic to expect a Cyclones non-conference, double digit favorite look-ahead spot here since they come off an intense, draining, maximum effort contest and have their Big 12 opener next week against Baylor. That could open the door for the dynamic ULM offense to blindside Iowa State’s defense. Expect each offense to have point scoring success and surprised at the downward movement of the total to 56 off the opener of 57. More than willing to step in and take advantage in a game where 60+ is more than capable of being scored. Recommendation: OVER 56
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+EV: CFB 4u: 320 Pittsburgh Panthers +12 -110 (Saturday, September 21st)
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NCAAF - Virgobbi Sports
9/21:
Southal +10 (-113)
southmiss +39 (-110)
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Sharp Totals Club
3* Rice Under
2* UMass Under
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ken Thomson
3* 368 Texas A&M -3.5 (-110) Westgate vs 367 Auburn
Analysis:
A look back at trip to death Valley to play Clemson in week two for the Aggies. They shut out the Tigers for 19 minutes out of the gate. Held Travis Etienne to 53 yards on 16 carries. Gave up 164 & ONE TD to Tee Higgins & Justyn Ross ...not too bad. Had the ball 6 minutes longer than the Tigers and if not for a RED Zone turnover inside the 5 yard line that game is much closer.
Meanwhile, Auburn steals their opener from Oregon on neutral field with 60% of crowd in Arlington at Jerry's House. Trailed for 59 minutes and 51 seconds....think a¨bout it...if they lost that game...what would this line be? They struggled with Tulane at home only a 24-6 win and then beat up on MAC school Kent State in second half last week.
A&M defense lost six starters and was supposed to struggle but Jimbo Fisher has a solid D in place and should get after Frosh QB Bo Nix who will be in his first true roadie and there is NO BIGGER HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE in CFB than KYLE FIELD!
320 Pittsburgh 12.5 (-110) Westgate vs 319 UCF
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has been unbelievable this season and the freshman has yielded off other suitors for the job. Darriel Mack is now healthy but last season's QB has not gotten his job back. Brandon Wimbush transferred from Notre Dame and he is a back-up as well. Lots of speed lots of scoring for this UCF team. The Knights may have too many speedy weapons for Pitt but the Panthers are¨ a physical team and will hold their own at home. They darn near won at Penn State last week as 17 point dogs and had their chances in the red zone several times before floundering. DL Jaylen Twyman is a beast and if DE Rashad Weaver didn't go down for the year in training Camp this Panther defense would have been relentless. QB Kenny Pickett had solid game at Happy Valley throwing for 372 yards but struggled deep in Lions red zone or Panthers win the game. Pitt needs something from non-existent run game to have a chance. Knights longest Regular Season win streak but you never go....it could stop right....HERE!
KEN THOMSON | CFB SIDE SAT, 09/21/19 - 10:30 PM
398 Washington St. -18.5 (-110) Westgate vs 397 UCLA
double-dime bet
Analysis:
QB Gordon has 6 receivers and a solid du¨el threat RB in Max Borghi.....Bruins Defense is weak and just scratched lead tackler LB Barnes.
KEN THOMSON | CFB SIDE SAT, 09/21/19 - 7:30 PM
376 Texas -5.0 (-110) William Hill vs 375 Oklahoma St.
double-dime bet
Analysis:
QB Ehlinger will help Horns break 4-game skid in this series....no¨t over thinking it...Texas by 7-17
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 3:30PM
370 Tulsa -3.0(-110) Westgate vs 369 Wyoming double-dime bet
Analysis: Even though we cashed going against them, we liked what we saw from Tulsa last week as Oklahoma St had to out-score the Golden Hurricane 20-0 in the second half to get the cover. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 3-0, but the Cowboys have been out-gained in every game this season. Last week, huge underdog Idaho (+27.5) had a 303-287 yard edge and Wyoming only managed a 5-point win. That’s coming off the heels of two wins vs Missouri and Texas St where the Cowboys were out-gained by 148 yards and 151 yards but managed wins and covers. We like the favorite here.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 8:00PM
392 Georgia -14.0(-110) Westgate vs 391 Notre Dame double-dime bet
Analysis: Both teams come in off blowout wins last week. Notre Dame probably isn’t as good as they’ve looked because they are No. 1 in the country in turnover margin at +3.0 a game. Last week, they converted four New Mexico TOs into four TD’s. We feel this is a bad match-up for an under-sized Notre Dame defense. The Irish are allowing 231 rush yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (that’s vs Louisville and New Mexico). Now they face a Georgia rush offense that is averaging 287 rush yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry. Remember, ND’s starting defensive line average weight is 273 pounds. UGA’s starting offensive line average weight is 329 pounds. That’s 56 pounds per man. Finally, Georgia has won their last 15 home games by an average of 31 ppg. All 15 wins have come by 14-points or more and 13 have been by 21 points or more!
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Doug Kezirian (NCAAf Saturday)
Charlotte TT over 9.5 points (-127)
Texas -5.5
Oregon -10.5
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+EV: CFB 3u: 347 New Mexico State Aggies +4 -105 (Saturday, September 21st)
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TAP (5-5 50% YTD)
Ohio St. -39.5
UCLA +18.5
Utah St. -3.5
New Mexico -5
Michigan St. -7
LSU -23.5
Western Mich. +6
Florida -14
Appalachian St. 3.5
Georgia -13.5
Iowa St. -19
Temple -14
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Bezobets 12-0-1 last weekend football..
3* Wash -6 -115
3* Texas A&M -3 -120
3* Georgia -14 -118
2* Michigan +3.5 -115
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'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 4 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 4 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 4 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 4.
The plays
The Bear (4-2 last week, 5-9-1 overall)
Stanford Steve (6-0-1 last week, 11-5-1 overall)
Wyoming Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: At 1-2, Tulsa is a small favorite over 3-0 Wyoming, so that immediately grabbed my attention. The Cowboys have a negative passing game in terms of expected points, are 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and now face a defense that's 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge for Tulsa over Wyoming, which is 70th on defense. I'm thinking Wyoming's opening-week victory over Missouri is a bit of a fluke, based on close calls the past two weeks against Idaho and Texas State. After putting up 21 on Oklahoma State last week, look for Tulsa to get a home win here and feel good entering its idle week.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Stanford Steve: I love everything about the Wyoming football program ... but I think Wyoming is the most overrated undefeated team in the country.
Pick: Tulsa. Tulsa 27, Wyoming 20.
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 47.5)
The Bear: Texas A&M really hung in there at Clemson a couple of weeks ago -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- and Jimbo Fisher has gotten A&M to play well in big games at Kyle Field, something the Aggies didn't do under Kevin Sumlin (3-9 vs. ranked teams at home). I wonder about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix against that A&M defense on the road here. And looking at A&M's schedule -- yes, Auburn has a difficult slate, too -- the Aggies really need a win here.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Stanford Steve: I like what I've seen from both of these teams to start the season, even though the Aggies have a loss. Plenty of eyes will be on Auburn's Nix in his first true road start, as he will take on the atmosphere of Kyle Field and the 12th Man. I think back to last season when these two teams met and Auburn rallied for an unthinkable win. That day at Auburn, the Aggies held the Tigers to 19 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Also in that game, A&M quarterback Kellen Mond struggled, completing 50% of his passes for 220 yards. Mond was a different player in road and home games last season, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions on the road and 19 TDs and four INTs at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5. Texas A&M 30, Auburn 21.
Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-3, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: This is the first time in the Bobcats' 39 games at the FBS level that they are favored. They win, but they don't cover.
Pick: Georgia State +3. Texas State 29, Georgia State 28.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: If you want to bet the game where College GameDay is going ... the Irish cover.
Pick: Notre Dame +14.5. Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24.
Stay-away games
The Bear
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 44)
The Badgers' defense has been great against nobody, while the Wolverines' offense has sputtered. Michigan has more talent than Wisconsin, but it's hard to back the Wolverines until we see them put a complete game together. While it wouldn't surprise me to see them play well Saturday, what if the Badgers are for real? Too many questions for me to get involved.
Utah Utes (-4, 52) at USC Trojans
We know the numbers on Clay Helton as a 'dog (they aren't good), but I thought USC played OK last week at BYU. The world will be on Utah here. I'll sit and watch, and if things start going south, in-game betting will be the way to go.
Stanford Steve
UCF Knights (-12.5, 61) at Pittsburgh Panthers
No clue how Pitt gets up off the deck after last week.
California Golden Bears at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 41)
The stat about ranked teams that are underdogs on the road vs. unranked teams scares me (see the Bear Bytes below), because Cal feels like the right side.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Boston College blew it up Friday night, so hopefully you reloaded Saturday, as the remaining 10 won. Here's this week's edition. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $43.16.
Iowa State -1150
Indiana -3700
Miami -6000
Virginia -6000
LSU -2200
Baylor -3500
Georgia -650
The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML or in a parlay or round-robin
Last week four of the five won, and if you played a $10 round-robin, you would have made roughly $1,100. Hopefully a couple of these can get home this week.
Pitt +375
Western Michigan +185 (FPI has WMU favored in the game)
Kentucky +200
Appalachian State +135
Louisville +200
SMU +280
BYU +200
Stanford Steve's big-game money-line parlay
A $100 bet wins $497.
Utah -180
Texas A&M -160
Wisconsin -160
Texas -220
Stanford Steve's three-team, 10-point teaser for Friday
Utah +6
Florida International +18
Air Force +18.5
Stanford Steve's favorite team total over
Alabama over 49
Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the ML
Northwestern +310
Bear Bytes
Not much fight
Under Clay Helton, USC is 1-12 outright and 2-11 against the spread as an underdog. Eleven of the 12 losses have come by double digits, and eight of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. The average margin of defeat in USC's past 12 losses as an underdog: 18.8 points per game. USC as an underdog under Helton:
2018 vs. Notre Dame (+12), lost by 7
2018 at Utah (+7), lost by 13
2018 at Texas (+3.5), lost by 23
2018 at Stanford (+5), lost by 14
2017 vs. Ohio State (+10), lost by 17 (Cotton Bowl)
2017 at Notre Dame (+3.5), lost by 35
2016 at Washington (+8), won by 13
2016 at Utah (+3), lost by 4
2016 at Stanford (+7), lost by 17
2016 vs. Alabama (+12), lost by 46 (Arlington, Texas)
2015 vs. Stanford (+4.5), lost by 19
2015 at Oregon (+4), lost by 20
2015 at Notre Dame (+6), lost by 10
Michigan struggles as an underdog
Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Four of the six losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first season at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-6) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-14).
Mike Gundy excels in this role
In its past nine games as an underdog, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS, with seven outright wins. One of Gundy's squad's losses came by one point against Oklahoma last season as a 21.5-point 'dog.
Odds are Notre Dame at Georgia will not be close
We all love big regular-season games between top-10 teams. But lately, those games haven't necessarily lived up to the hype or produced many upsets. In the past 13 pre-bowl meetings between top-10 teams, favorites are 10-3 ATS. The only underdog to win during that stretch was Ohio State (+4) last season at home vs. Michigan.
Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games against top-five teams. The Irish are 1-18 SU in their past 19 against top-five teams, with a scoring margin of minus-20.6 PPG. Fourteen of the 18 losses have come by at least 14 points and 10 by 20-plus points. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 0-4 in this spot, with three of four losses by at least 14 points.
Worst win percentage vs. top-five teams since 2000 (minimum 10 games):
Wake Forest 0-16
Vanderbilt 0-15
Indiana 0-13
Boston College 1-17
Notre Dame 1-17*
*0-4 under Kelly (three losses by 14-plus points)
Since 1978, there have been 28 top-10 matchups where the spread has been at least 14 points. The favorite has won 24 of them and gone 16-12 ATS (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS in the 20 regular-season games). The four 'dogs to win outright, two of which came in a conference title game:
2015, No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-14), W, 17-14
2001, No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Florida (-17.5), W, 34-32*
1998, No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5), W, 36-33*
1994, No. 6 Auburn at No. 1 Florida (-17), W, 36-33
*Conference championship game
Northwestern a live 'dog?
Few teams perform better in the underdog role than Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern Wildcats. The Cats are 13-4-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 18 games as a 'dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018, one of which was a 29-19 victory at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog. In the Spartans' past five games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has three touchdowns and nine turnovers in 67 drives. During that span, MSU has one 80-yard drive, has been held to single digits in four of five games and failed to score a touchdown in three of the five games.
Unusually high spread for Florida-Tennessee
This is the largest spread (Gators -14) in the Florida-Tennessee series since 2013. Florida won 31-17 that season as a 16-point favorite in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to cover four of the past five games in which they were favored.
Which way will Ole Miss vs. Cal go?
As an underdog at Cal, Justin Wilcox is 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins. Since 2015, there have been 25 instances in the pre-bowl season where a team ranked 20th or lower entered a game against an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-21 SU during that span. Last season, there were six instances, with Northwestern's victory at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose. Two weeks ago, unranked Maryland and USC both knocked off ranked underdogs in this spot. Add it all up, and since the start of last season, unranked favorites against teams ranked 20-25 are 8-1 SU and ATS. If you think that trend will continue, Ole Miss is your play this weekend.
Bad home 'dog vs. bad road favorite
Last week's win over USC was the only time in seven tries as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered the spread (1-5-1 ATS). However, Washington is 2-4 (1-5 ATS) in its past six games as a road favorite. Included in that are two losses as a double-digit favorite.
Pitt typically hangs around in these games
In its past five games as a regular-season double-digit underdog, Pitt, which hosts UCF on Saturday, is 4-1 ATS with one outright win and three losses by seven points or fewer. The only game Pitt didn't cover during that span was a 31-point loss at UCF last season as a 13.5-point underdog.
Rare favorites
This is the first time in 39 games Texas State is favored over an FBS opponent (-3 vs. Georgia State). The last time Texas State was favored over an FBS opponent was Nov. 19, 2015, vs. Louisiana Monroe. Dennis Franchione's team beat Todd Berry's team 16-3 as a 6.5-point favorite.
Kansas isn't a big 'dog!
Saturday marks the first time since 2014 that Kansas is an underdog of less than a touchdown in a Big 12 game (West Virginia -4.5). The last time Kansas was a 'dog of less than a TD was Nov. 8, 2014, when the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 34-14 as a 3.5-point 'dog. That was 40 games ago.
North Carolina on upset alert?
Appalachian State has covered each of its past two games against Power 5 teams. Last season, the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn State as a 24-point underdog in a game they probably should have won. And in 2017, App State lost 20-19 to Wake Forest as a 5.5-point 'dog. The Mountaineers are 3-point underdogs at North Carolina.
Fade Florida State?
Florida State is 2-6 ATS with three outright losses in its eight games as a favorite under Willie Taggart.
Trust the Ducks or Cardinal?
Oregon (-10) has been a brutal road team in Pac-12 play lately -- 3-13 both straight up and against the spread since 2016. But can you take Stanford with any confidence?
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+EV: CFB 4u: 367 Auburn Tigers +4 -113 (Saturday, September 21st)
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Scott Spreitzer
3 Unit Northwestern +9
7 Unit Washington -6.5
2 Unit Tex a &m -3.5
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Vernon Croy
5 Unit - Western Michigan +5 over Syracuse
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