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Service Plays Saturday 10/19/19
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Essler 3* GOY
Oklahoma St -3
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+EV: CFB 2u: Florida State Seminoles +114 (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 321 Clemson Tigers -23.5 -108 (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 391 Auburn Tigers -18.5 -114 (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 390 Oklahoma State Cowboys -3 -117 (Saturday, October 19th)
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
12:16 AM
UNDER 49
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | 10/17 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Under has been cashing over and over in primetime games, and I think we're in a good spot to play it here. The Chiefs offense has slowed down over the last two weeks as the Chiefs have battled O-line issues and a Patrick Mahomes that doesn't look 100 percent. After a string of 25 straight games of 25 points or more, Kansas City has gone under that number in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, the Broncos haven't scored more than 24 in a game and have gone under 20 in four of their six matchups. I can't see them lighting up even a bad defense like the Chiefs have.
41-31 IN LAST 72 NFL PICKS | +653
Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
12:11 AM
KANSAS CITY -3
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | 10/17 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Chiefs have won seven straight over the Broncos, covering six of those. And they're 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Denver. Yes, K.C. is banged-up defensively and has not been able to stop the run. Yes, Denver will pound the ball and likely control the clock. But with Sammy Watkins looking likely to return, Patrick Mahomes could have his full complement of weapons for the first time all season. Lay the field goal.
24-11 IN LAST 35 NFL ATS PICKS | +1176
5-1 IN LAST 6 DEN ATS PICKS | +390
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+EV: CFB 4u: 411 Charlotte 49ers +9.5 -105 (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 361 Toledo Rockets -103 (Moneyline) (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 393 Texas A&M Aggies -6 -110 (Saturday, October 19th)
+EV: CFB 4u: 336 Bowling Green Falcons +11 -105 (Saturday, October 19th)
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Sports Cheetah
virginia -3
oklahoma st -3
florida -5
smu -7.5
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Senior Member
- Rep Power
- 8
Stanford steve And Chris Fallica Column week 8
The plays
Stanford Steve (0-3 last week, 17-14-2 overall)
The Bear (3-0 last week, 17-11-1 overall)
Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 47) at BYU Cougars
The Bear: Both teams have injuries to address at quarterback, with Hank Bachmeier nursing a hip injury for the Broncos and BYU's Jaren Hall working his way back from concussion symptoms. Boise has found a way to cover all but one of its games this season, and BYU has had a couple of tough-luck road losses the past two weeks. I get the sense that a return to Provo and the need for a win here to provide an easier path to bowl eligibility will result in a good effort from the Cougars.
Pick: BYU +6.5
Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers (-4.5, 59.5)
EDITOR'S PICKS
Where FPI sees a Week 8 college football edge vs. the spread
Luckiest, unluckiest teams in college football
The Bear: I like this Tulane team and expect the Green Wave offense to give Memphis fits. What we thought was an improved Tigers defense has been a bit of a mirage, as it allowed 575 and 456 yards the past two weeks. There's a bit of urgency for the Tigers as they return home after a controversial loss at Temple, but I expect Tulane to give Memphis its best shot.
Pick: Tulane +4.5
LSU Tigers (-18.5, 61.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bear: Yes, I admit it's a little risky getting in front of the LSU cover machine, but it's all about the spot. LSU comes off an intense home win over Florida and has Auburn on deck next week, then a potential top-3 matchup with Alabama after that. The Bulldogs suffered an embarrassing loss at Tennessee last week, were blown out by Auburn before that and lost to Kansas State at home earlier this year. MSU cant stop turning the ball over. There's nothing on paper that makes you believe the Bulldogs should hang around this one, but at some point even the best teams have that flat spot, and this just might be it for LSU.
Pick: Mississippi State +18.5
Texas A&M Aggies (-6.5, 54.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
The Bear: The Aggies haven't swept the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left College Station. Now A&M is laying around a TD in Oxford and will be favored against Mississippi State next week. Ole Miss was a debatable call away from being up 14-3 last week at Missouri before losing by 11. It's clear John Rhys Plumlee is a difference-maker at quarterback for the Rebels, and he should help keep them in this one against an A&M team that can't run the football and nearly lost to Arkansas in its last game away from home.
Pick: Ole Miss +6.5
Charlotte 49ers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-9, 48.5)
The Bear: Western Kentucky hasn't scored more than 21 points against an FBS opponent this season. Charlotte hasn't scored fewer than 23 against teams not named Clemson. Sure, the 49ers' defense has been gutted in recent weeks, but it is not facing a prolific offense here and should get some players back from injury on defense this week. If Charlotte can score 23, shouldn't that be good enough for the cover?
Pick: Charlotte +9
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 68)
The Bear: Baylor is unbeaten, but a key injury at linebacker probably will hurt the defense here against Chuba Hubbard, Tylan Wallace & Co. The Cowboys have been off since a humbling loss at Texas Tech, and one would think Mike Gundy's team is in a pretty good spot here to hang the first loss of the season on the Bears. See my "Bear Bytes" below for a few interesting trends on this matchup, whether you like the Bears or Cowboys.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
Clemson Tigers (-24.5, 60.5) at Louisville Cardinals
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Stanford Steve: Last year when these teams played in South Carolina, the Tigers won 77-16. This year is a different story; Louisville has already gone over its projected win total and new head coach Scott Satterfield has things going in the right direction. The Cardinals average 37 points but are still giving up 31. The Clemson offense looked to have gotten back on track last week, beating Florida State 45-14. It looks as is Micale Cunningham will be back at QB for Louisville, even though backup Evan Conley led the Cardinals to victory last week in an upset 62-59 win over ranked Wake Forest. You know the Tigers will score and I think the Cardinals will score enough for the number to go over the total. Take the over.
Pick: Over 60.5 points. Clemson 48, Louisville 21.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-1, 57)
Stanford Steve: The Rivalry in Dixie! The Eagles are fresh off a rout of North Texas and now are averaging 444 yards of offense and 31 points under quarterback Jack Abraham, who is fourth in FBS with 1,936 yards through the air. The Techsters are fresh off a drubbing of lowly UMass where they had 42 points in the first 19 minutes of the game. They now are averaging 34 PPG and 467 yards per game. Both offenses are better than the defenses they'll face. The number just doesn't make sense to me. Take the over.
Pick: Over 57 points. Southern Miss 41, Louisiana Tech 38
Stanford Steve's Thursday night pick
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-7, 52.5)
Stanford will be starting its third-string quarterback. I think that's enough for the Bruins to keep it close.
Pick: UCLA +7. Stanford 23, UCLA 20.
Stanford Steve's Saturday prime-time pick
Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (-9, 45.5)
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Not sure what people are more tired of: Tom Herman's record as an underdog ATS or Jim Harbaugh as an underdog vs. ranked teams. Regardless, I think Penn State has a serious advantage with its defensive line against the Wolverines' offensive line. Plus, no one punches additional scores in late in games better than James Franklin. I'll lay the points.
Pick: Penn State -9. Penn State 31, Michigan 18.
Stay-away games
The Bear
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-7, 52.5)
It's anyone's guess as to what the Stanford offense will look like with its third-string quarterback in the game.
Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5, 68.5)
How will FSU respond after another blowout loss at Clemson? And how will the Deacs respond to their first loss of the year, especially if quarterback Jamie Newman can't go?
Florida Gators (-5, 48.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
I wanted to like the Gamecocks here, but the number has come down enough where it's not enough points for me. I was impressed with Florida in defeat last week at LSU, and a win by a TD wouldn't surprise me -- nor would an outright loss.
Toledo Rockets (-1.5, 58.5) at Ball State Cardinals
The Rockets have injury concerns at quarterback and are coming off an embarrassing loss to Bowling Green. This line has flipped from Toledo to Ball State as the favorite in a few spots, so be careful.
Stanford Steve
Florida Gators (-5, 48.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
No clue how teams will react to their outcomes last week and what toll it took on them physically.
Temple Owls at SMU Mustangs (-7.5, 59)
No idea what to expect from the ranked Mustangs off a bye week or how Owls will travel after knocking off Memphis.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Ten-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $25. Beats working for a living, no?
Ohio State -6000
Houston -2000
UCF -10000
Texas -2000
Georgia -3500
Wisconsin -12000
Alabama -15000
Oklahoma -10000
Minnesota -7000
FIU -3000
The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Ole Miss +200
Tulane +165
BYU +210
Boston College +150
Oregon State +335
Eastern Michigan +260
Duke +140
Stanford Steve's favorite double-digit home favorite
South Florida Bulls at Navy Midshipmen (-14, 53)
I don't think the Bulls want anything to do with the Middies' rushing attack after a win last week against BYU.
Pick: Navy -14. Navy 35, USF 17.
Stanford Steve's short favorite worth taking on the money-line
Rice Owls at UTSA Roadrunners
The Owls are starving for a win.
Pick: Rice ML (-180). Rice 24, UTSA 20
Bear Bytes
Plenty of angles on Baylor-Oklahoma State
NFL & CFB Best Bets
Panel: Week 8 CFB best bets
CFB: Stanford Steve & The Bear
NFL: Best Week 7 Eliminator picks
NFL: Week 7 early betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Since 2013, there have been four instances where a team 6-0 or better was an underdog against an unranked team. The last three have lost by 21, 7 and 18 points, respectively. The only one to win? Temple in 2015, as a 3-point 'dog at East Carolina. Matt Rhule's Owls won 24-14. Rhule, now the head coach at Baylor, again finds himself in that spot this week, at 6-0 and as a 3.5-point underdog at unranked Oklahoma State.
Teams 6-0 or better as an underdog vs. unranked teams (since 2013):
2018: USF vs. Houston, lost by 21
2018: Cincinnati vs. Temple, lost by 7
2015: Utah vs. USC, lost by 18
2013: Temple vs. ECU, won by 10
In 15 games as an underdog of less than seven points, Rhule is 12-3 straight up (4-0 at Baylor). That includes a 23-21 win over Iowa State this season as a 2.5-point 'dog. In the past 10 years, an unranked Oklahoma State team has been favored at home over a ranked opponent three times. The Cowboys are 3-0 straight up and ATS in this spot.
Unranked OSU as home favorites vs. ranked teams (past 10 years):
2019: OSU vs. No. 24 Kansas State (-4), won by 13
2016: OSU vs. No. 22 Texas (-2), won by 18
2012: OSU vs. No. 23 Texas Tech (-10), won by 38
What does South Carolina have for an encore?
Since 2000, there have been 14 teams that won as a 20-point underdog and were an underdog in their next regular-season game. Those 14 went 11-3 ATS and only one pulled the double upset: 2016 Syracuse, which won as 21-point 'dog vs. Virginia Tech and a 4-point 'dog vs. Boston College.
Double-digit favorite to play against?
Miami is 2-8 ATS with two outright losses in its past 10 games as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS opponents. Included in that is a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and a five-point win over Central Michigan as a 30.5-point favorite earlier this year.
Land of disenchantment
New Mexico has failed to cover each of its past eight games (0-7-1) and is 4-17-1 ATS in its past 22 games.
No Conn do
This is the 10th straight and 16th time in 17 games that Connecticut is a double-digit underdog against an FBS opponent.
Herm plays to win the game
Arizona State is 8-3 ATS with six outright wins as an underdog under Herm Edwards. ASU has been a 'dog three times this year and won all three games outright (Michigan State, Cal, Washington State).
Noles make history
This is the first time Wake Forest (-2.5) has been favored over Florida State. In fact, only twice have the Deacs been an underdog of less than a touchdown (2007 and 2008), and Wake won both of those games outright.
Harbaugh seeks elusive win at Michigan
Michigan has failed to win a game under Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Five of the seven losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first year at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-7) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-15). The Wolverines are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS against top-15 teams under Harbaugh.
Temple a 'dog again
Since 2015, Temple is 18-5 ATS with 12 outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 20-17 win over Maryland earlier this year as a 5.5-point underdog and an upset win at home over Memphis last week.
Washington a rare home underdog
This is the first time since Sept. 26, 2015 that Washington is a home underdog. The Huskies were a 2-point underdog to Cal in Chris Petersen's second year at UW and lost 30-24 that day. That was 29 home games ago. Oregon has been favored four times at Husky Stadium and won and covered all four (2007, 2009, 2011, 2013). However, the Ducks have lost seven of the past 12 games in which they have been favored away from home (5-7 ATS).
A cut above
Duke is currently a 3-point underdog at Virginia. As a 'dog of three points or less, David Cutcliffe has won 10 of 12 games outright as Blue Devils head coach. And in its past 10 games as an underdog, Duke is 8-2 straight up (9-1 ATS). The only two games Duke lost in that stretch were to the teams that have combined to win the past four national championships -- Alabama and Clemson.
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NFAC early card
UFC
UFC : DOMINICK REYES -160…($750) via Pinnacle & Bookmaker
UFC : YAIR RODRIGUEZ -105…($600) via 5dimes
UFC : DANIEL SPITZ +125…($600) via Pinnacle
UFC : DARREN STEWART +110…($600) via Pinnacle
UFC : GREG HARDY -285…($600) via Bookmaker
CFB
368) WASHINGTON +3…($1,000) – BIG MOVE via Pinnacle
317) DUKE +3…($750) via Pinnacle
349) KANSAS +21.5…($750) BetDsi at +22
398) VIRGINIA TECH +3.5…($750) via Pinnacle
360) UTAH -13.5…($750) Bookmaker at -13
395) TULANE +4.5…($750) via Pinnacle
377) TCU -3 (-125) – Buy 1/2 PT…($600) via BetOnline
319) GEORGIA TECH +18.5…($600) via 5dimes
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Strike sports
7 units Oregon -2.5
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Vernon Croy
6 - Wisconsin -31 vs Illinois
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Doc football
college
8-purdue+17.5
4-under-47.5-florida
4-rice-4.5
3-e.michigan+9
2-v.tech+3.5
2-ucf-33
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KEVIN DOLANFOOTBALL PLAYS
- Game: (355) BOISE STATE at (356) BYU
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 10:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 50.5 (-108)
We're on the Under here on Saturday as the BYU Cougars welcome a return home after back to back losses on the road to South Florida and Toledo in recent weeks (three straight losses overall), but face a Boise State team in rampant form, fresh off a 59-37 beatdown of Hawaii last week and who remain undefeated on the season.
However, there's reason for optimism for the Cougars in this matchup as they possess a very good passing defense that should cause this front of end of Boise State some trouble on Saturday. BYU rank 22nd in the nation on opponent passing yards, holding opposing offenses to just 188.5 ypg through the air on average, and that should cause Bachmeier and the rest of this Broncos offense some issues moving the ball effectively through the air over in Utah.
On the flip side, Boise State have also shown a competent defense on the season so far, holding both UNLV and Florida State to an average of just 84 rushing ypg on the road, good for 9th in the country, so expect problems for both teams moving the ball effectively here on Saturday.
These two teams matchup extremely well and we expect a close, hard-fought encounter similar to what took place last year, when the Broncos edged out a 21-16 win over the Cougars. We're getting a few extra points of value based off Boise's huge win over Hawaii at home last week and we don't expect them to put up anywhere near that here on Saturday going on the road against a much better Cougars defense in a primetime night game.
The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 between these two teams, and with the Cougars badly needing a win if they're to remain bowl eligible, expect them to bring maximum effort here up in Provo in front of a raucous home crowd on Saturday.
Take the Under between Boise State and BYU for Week 8.
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JOE RAINERI
Game:(385) Old Dominion at (386) UAB
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: UAB -15.0 (-108)
View Analysis
The Old Dominion Monarchs visit Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama on Saturday to play the UAB Blazers. Old Dominion fell to 1-5 on the season following its 31-17 loss to Marshall on Saturday. Old Dominion was hurt by quarterback sacks, as Marshall sacked Messiah deWeaver eight times. deWeaver threw for 100 yards and one touchdown and the Monarchs managed just 83 yards on the ground. The truth is, they are not very good on offense and their defense can't stop anybody.
UAB on the other hand, improved to 5-1 on the season with a 33-14 victory over UT San Antonio. Tyler Johnston III passed for 294 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead the Blazers to the win. With the win, UAB moved into third place in the West Division of Conference-USA at 2-1 just a half game behind leaders Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech. This team can play defense and they can also put up some points. This will be their last game before headed to their bye week and I expect they will pour it on the Monarchs.
UAB is also 7-0 ATS in its last 7 October games
UAB is the much better team and is battling for first place in the Conference-USA West division. The Blazers have covered the number in 7 of the last 8 versus an opponent with a losing record and in 9 of the last 11 following a win ATS.
Old Dominion has failed to cover 9 of its last 12 C-USA games.
I had this number somewhere aroud -20 so the fact that we are at two touchdowns is great value as far as I'm concerned.
I'll be laying the points with the way better team here who will no doubt look to put their stamp on this game.
I'm betting UAB to cover this game with ease, expect a score around 38-14.
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DR. CHUCK
- Game: (367) OREGON at (368) WASHINGTON U
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 50.0 (-108)
View Analysis
I would love this even more at 51 and it would rate a 5% play for sure...but at 50 it is still solid value with a couple of teams facing off in a Pac 12 matchup they both need and off great performances! This a spot we played hard with the Michigan Iowa matchup and meets our 45/45/55 system in college football for conference games before November. This system is now 17-3-3 to the Under after the way way Under matchup from the B1G a few weeks ago...finishing 10-3 Michigan.
These 2 teams come into this matchup very differently than in most previous years with Chris Petersen as the Husky head coach...Oregon has the objectively better defense...and at home...maybe the best defense in the country. Even traveling to play in Seattle they bring in a 3.8 yards per play average, which is 3rd in the nation! They allow just 3.4 yards per play and have only gone Over a total of 50 one single time all season...when they bitch slapped Nevada all over the field 77-6! They allow less than 10 points per game and just 0.14 points per play to opponents! They also have a staunch pass defense allowing just 4.6 yards per attempt and in the top 5 in most defensive categories.
Washington has, for the most part, played to the strengths and level of the competition this season. They'll sling it in mud for a 20-19 game against Cal or a 23-13 game against Stanford or go for a mid-70s total facing Hawaii or Arizona. This makes me think the Huskies, much more confident when trying to turn defense into offense chooses to slug it out in the trenches against an unbelievable Ducks defensive squad.
I don't know if 10-3 is what we're looking for here...but this system rarely loses and when the defenses are this good a la Michigan and Iowa it tends to be even easier than just playing a rote system play!
- Game: (359) ARIZONA STATE at (360) UTAH
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: ARIZONA STATE 14 (-120)
View Analysis
Maybe my favorite line in a long time. It's just is flat out crazy Herm's boys are getting 2 TDs even heading to the Salt Lake to face a daunting Utah defense. Both teams are 5-1 and the winner of this game will be the sole leader of the Pac 12 South and the inside track to the championship game. Arizona State pulled off a Jayden Daniels induced excellent late game win over Wazzu to get to this game at 5-1...meanwhile Utah throttled Wazzu and Oregon State allowing just 20 points total in the games combined.
We have the Sun Devils at 2-0 SU on the road this season, we have Herm at 5-1 ATS as a road dog in his short ASU career, and we have a total at 45 which screams dog or pass, even if we didn't already like this as a double digit live dog, and with each team performing so well the spot here is 6-1-1 ATS.
With a little larger sample size and using the same record requirements...the system still wins at a 57% clip ATS in database history and over 60% the past 10 seaons!
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DREW MARTIN
Game:(395) TULANE at (396) MEMPHIS
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: TULANE 4.5 (-109)
View Analysis
4% at 3.5
3% at 3
2% at 2.5
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NICK BORRMAN
Game:Bologna at Juventus
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 2:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Juventus -1.25 (-120)
Italy Serie A
(201293) Bologna at (201294) Juventus
Juve is back where they belong atop the table in Serie A after defeating Inter Milan 2-1 in their last match. The 8-time defending Italian champions didn't look the best to start the year, yet they still were getting results. They are 6-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play with a 13:6 goal differential and were actually conceding more than they historically do until they last couple of matches they seem to have tightened up their back line. They beat Spal 2-0 at home and followed that up with an impressive 3-0 win over Leverkusen from Germany in the Champions League before beating the aforementioned Inter Milan on the road. On the year they are unbeaten in nine matches including the Champions League with seven wins and two draws.
Bologna finished 10th in the table last season with an 11-11-16 record and a -8 goal differential and so far this year, look to be pretty much the same team, currently sitting 11th with a 2-3-2 record and an even goal differential. Historically they have struggled against Juve, as most Italian teams have, losing seven straight matches and have failed to cover this spread in four of the last five against Juve. At home, Juve has won and covered four straight against Bologna including last year, winning 2-0 with what should be almost the same lineup, minus Chiellini on defense who is out injured (although he actually sat out this match last year). They held a 75% to 25% possession advantage and outshot Bologna 15 to 5 with 9 on goal compared to just 2 for the visitors.
De Ligt, Juve's $80M transfer this offseason from Ajax, has started to anchor down that backline after a learning curve to start the season, getting used to Serie A. The 1-2 punch of Ronaldo and Dybala up front has really started to look strong as well as the two feed off each other and teams cannot simply zero in on Ronaldo as Dybala is a lethal scorer as well. All in all, the talent level of Juve is head and shoulders above Bologna and I believe this line should be closer to -1.75 or -2 so I see tremendous value here.
TAKE JUVENTUS -1.25 (split line of -1 and -1.5)
Line Parameter: 5% to -1.5 but prefer -1.25 to protect half our bet against a one goal win and you can pay up to -130 to get the -1.25 number. Grab this number now as this line should move to -1.5 or worse by kickoff.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 4:00PM
390 Oklahoma St. -3.5(-108) Pinnacle vs 389 Baylor triple-dime bet
Analysis: We love Oklahoma State here. Oklahoma St is fresh off a bye after a misleading loss to Texas Tech in their last game. How was it misleading? Oklahoma St was -5 in TO’s! Oklahoma St QB Spencer Sanders after the game: “I mean, I had 5 turnovers, not the offensive line, not the receivers, not the defense. I did. Spencer Sanders had 5 turnovers. I can’t do that. I’ve got to do better.” Meanwhile Baylor is off a dramatic 2OT win over Texas Tech last week. The Bears are unbeaten but have two “coin flip” wins. Baylor is dealing with a key injury that won’t be factored into the market place. They lost their best defensive player Clay Johnston (58 tackles, 2nd leading tackler only has 30!). Stats wise, Baylor is the better team but they’ve played the much weaker schedule.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 3:30PM
384 Louisiana Tech 1.0(-110) Westgate vs 383 Southern Miss. double-dime bet
Analysis: Louisiana Tech should be plenty rested off a bye and a blowout win over UMass last week. This line says Southern Miss is clearly the superior team. We don’t agree. Louisiana Tech is +65.6 ypg (So Miss +56.3), LT is +11.0 ppg (So Miss +0.7) and LT is +1.4 yards per play (So Miss +0.5). Sure LT has played the softer schedule they’re at home catching a point. The Bulldogs also have revenge here for an OT loss here two years ago (blew an 11-point lead in the final minutes) and then a 1-point loss at Southern Miss last year.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 12:00PM
373 Florida -5.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 374 South Carolina double-dime bet
Analysis: A misleading final for South Carolina last week creates value on Florida this week. Remember South Carolina was -14 first downs and -171 yards last week vs Georgia but were +4 in TO’s. Meanwhile, Florida should’ve covered vs LSU. The Gators were intercepted in the end zone and stopped on downs at the LSU 2-yard line on their final 2 possessions and actually led 28-21 in the second half. We came away very impressed with Florida QB Kyle Trask (310 yards and 3 TD’s). The Gators have a bye on deck and can ill afford another loss. South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski will play here but will he be 100%?
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 7:30PM
422 Penn St. -9.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 421 Michigan single-dime bet
Analysis: This is a “White Out” game for Penn St. The Nittany Lions are 9-6 ATS +2.5 ppg in those games and remember 12 of those 15 games came against ranked teams. James Franklin is 4-1 ATS in “White Out” game (+8.5 ppg). There is a huge mismatch here with the Penn State defense vs the Michigan offense. Penn St’s defense is No. 3 in the country in yards per play allowed (3.8). Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense is No. 81 in the country in yards per play (5.6). The Wolverines in their last 20 games on the road vs ranked teams: 1-19 SU (-16.1 ppg) and 5-15 ATS (-8.8 ppg).
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Scott Sprietzer
8 Oklahoma St. -3.5
4 Bowling Green +10.5
2 Army -5
2 Ole Miss +6.5
2 Penn St. -9
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Alan Harris - CFB
3 Boston College +3.5
3 Nevada +21
6 Boise St -7
3 Georgia -25
4 Alabama -34.5
5 UAB -16
3 Tulane +4
2 Appalachian st -15
5 Missouri -21
4 Middle Tenn st +8
4 Penn St -9
2 Wisc/Illinois 50.5o
2 New Mexico/Wyoming 48.5o
2 Arizona/USC 67u
2 LSU/Miss St 61.5o
2 Baylor/Okl St 68.5u
2 Temple/SMU 59o
2 Air Force/Hawaii 66.5o
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