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Service Plays Sunday 11/17/19
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DR. CHUCKFOOTBALL PLAYS
- Game: (459) Denver Broncos at (460) Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: Nov 17 2019 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Minnesota Vikings -10.0 (-120)
View Analysis
Mike Zimmer is 7-1 ATS and SU as a home favorite in November and 5-0 SU and ATS against non-division opponents. Taking the November aspect away and he is 22-2 SU and 19-3-2 ATS against non-division opponents. The dude is clutch flat out at home and takes care of business.
Cousins looks excellent, Cook might be the best back in the league and the TEs in addition to Diggs make the underrated aspect of the Vikings squad a 2headed beast. Off a tough showcase Primetime game might be an issue to some and a Broncos team off a shocking win and a bye...but Kirk just showed up HUGE in a Primetime road game where he almost always falters...now gets a nice under the radar home game against one of the least talented offensive teams in the league.
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Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 17 2019 1:00PM
464 MIA 7.0(+120) Westgate vs 463 BUF double-dime bet
Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 17 2019 1:00PM
461 NYJ 2.5(-110) Pinnacle vs 462 WAS double-dime bet
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Vernon Croy
6-Unit Play. #465 Houston +4 over Baltimore (Sunday, November 17 at 1:00 PM ET)
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Norm Hitzges's Picks of the Pole
DOUBLE PLAY:
Dallas -5
SINGLE PLAYS
Tampa Bay +5.5
Jacksonville +3
Minnesota -10.5
NY Jets +2.5
Houston +4
Philadelphia +3.5
Chicago-LA Rams under 40.5
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Cowherd Blazin' 5
He's been cold the past 3-4 weeks.
TEXANS
BRONCOS
JETS
ARZ
CHARGERS
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Mike Tierney
Denver +10.5
Denver @ Minnesota | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
A double-digit spread seems a tad high with an underdog allowing 19 points per game and the fourth-fewest yards in the league. Three of the past five games have gone Denver’s way straight up, with a credible two-point loss at Indianapolis. The Broncos are refreshed from a bye. In a few short weeks, Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has transitioned from a piñata to standing on a pedestal in the betting public’s eyes. He should be regarded somewhere in between.
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 NFL PICKS | +387
6-3 IN LAST 9 MIN ATS PICKS | +274
R.J. White
UNDER 40.5
Denver @ Minnesota | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
These are two great defenses, in terms of DVOA, with both ranking in the top eight of that metric. Minnesota has had a lot of Overs lately but they've played a lot of great offenses, should be different here against Brandon Allen at home. The Vikings offense can run, run and run some more, which they're more than happy to do (32nd in pass attempts this year). This historically is a great Under spot for Minnesota as well, as the Under is 10-1 since 2007 when the Vikings are favored by double digits at home (and the one miss was by a half-point).
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIN O/U PICKS | +290
Emory Hunt
Minnesota -10.5
Denver @ Minnesota | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Denver had two weeks to prepare for Minnesota, which means the Broncos had an additional time to get QB Brandon Allen ready for the Vikings defense. I thought he was lucky against the Browns on a few plays that really turned the tide in that game. Also Cleveland still had a chance to win that game late. Look for the Vikings to put this one away early.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
5-2 IN LAST 7 MIN ATS PICKS | +281
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Mike Tierney
Dallas -5
Dallas @ Detroit | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford appears doubtful to play Sunday, and Jeff Driskel represents a major drop in an offense already belabored with an uninspiring ground game. Perhaps playing last Sunday will help Driskel, but he still compromises the Lions’ vertical pass attack. As for Dallas, the trio of QB Dak Prescott (No. 2 in passing yards), RB Ezekiel Elliott (No. 8 in rushing yards) and WR Amari Cooper (No. 3 in receiving yards) has been terrific. These Cowboys are more talented than their 5-4 straight-up record suggests.
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 NFL PICKS | +387
12-7 IN LAST 19 DAL ATS PICKS | +421
4-3 IN LAST 7 DET ATS PICKS | +62
R.J. White
Dallas -3.5
Dallas @ Detroit | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Matthew Stafford appears to be less than 50/50 to play this week, and if he sits I don't know how the Lions stay competitive in this game. The one place where Detroit has shined this year is pass offense, but Jeff Driskel lowers the upside there, as he showed last week. Even if Stafford does play, Cowboys rank sixth in yards per attempt and can slow down the pass game. Dallas is the No. 1 offense in terms of DVOA, and when they've won this year, they've won by double digits. Even if it jumps, I like them to cover, as they're 7-1 ATS the last eight times they've been road favorites by six or more.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
5-2 IN LAST 7 DET ATS PICKS | +280
6-4-1 IN LAST 11 DAL ATS PICKS | +154
Hank Goldberg
Dallas -3.5
Dallas @ Detroit | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
I'm looking at Dallas as a bounce back team this week. Detroit has a miserable defense against the run, so Ezekiel Elliott will have a big game. And I don't expect Matthew Stafford to play. The Lions' secondary also is in bad shape and they don't have their star running back.
3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ATS PICKS | +188
Emory Hunt
Dallas -3.5
Dallas @ Detroit | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Dallas played well enough to defeat Minnesota last week. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was on fire, hitting targets all over the field - and doing so accurately. Detroit's offense, especially with QB Matthew Stafford's unknown status, doesn't pose enough of a threat to make you think the Lions will pull off the upset.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
23-13-1 IN LAST 37 DAL ATS PICKS | +862
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Hank Goldberg
New Orleans -5.5
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
I can't believe Drew Brees is as bad as he looked last week. Before last week, Tampa had lost four straight. The Saints' defense is very good and will create turnovers by Jameis Winston. This is a big game for New Orleans following San Francisco's loss. Lay the points.
8-3 IN LAST 11 NO ATS PICKS | +457
4-2-2 IN LAST 8 TB ATS PICKS | +172
R.J. White
UNDER 49.5
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
The Bucs have seen each of their last seven games go Over, but this is the week that streak ends. Year after year, these Saints-Bucs totals are high but rarely go Over in Tampa, where the Under is 9-2 over the last 11 years. The Saints defense has been playing well this year, and I think they'll slow down the Tampa Bay offense enough to get us Under the total. While the Bucs probably don't have an answer for Michael Thomas, if they do have trouble scoring the Saints can shorten the game in the second half by running the ball, where the Tampa defense shines.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
6-4 IN LAST 10 TB O/U PICKS | +160
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Emory Hunt
Atlanta +5.5
Atlanta @ Carolina | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Whatever button Atlanta coach Dan Quinn pushed over the bye week worked to perfection against New Orleans. Now, the Falcons face another divisional opponent in the Carolina Panthers. Mission No. 1 for the Falcons is to make QB Kyle Allen beat them by throwing the football. That involves them being consistent and disciplined in stopping RB Christian McCaffrey. Atlanta has the offense to make this one very interesting. Take the Falcons.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
9-1 IN LAST 10 ATL ATS PICKS | +790
Mike Tierney
UNDER 49.5
Atlanta @ Carolina | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
The Falcons’ offense will be crippled by the loss of TE Austin Hooper (knee), who is second in the league at his position in receiving yards, and likely absence of primary RB Devonta Freeman (ankle). Atlanta’s defense will do its part in assuring an Under if it can duplicate last week's shutdown of mighty New Orleans - a result of shuffled coaching assignments during the bye week. This series generates lower scores than expected, with just two Overs in the last dozen meetings.
8-3-1 IN LAST 12 NFL O/U PICKS | +470
2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL O/U PICKS | +90
Larry Hartstein
Carolina -5.5
Atlanta @ Carolina | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Sure the Panthers lost by eight at Green Bay, but it's a bit misleading given they had two trips inside the Packers' 11-yard line that resulted in zero points. The Falcons saved their coach's job with a stunning performance in New Orleans. I don't think they can duplicate that effort in their second straight road game, against a Carolina team that's averaged 32 points in its last two home games. Lay it.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
18-10 IN LAST 28 ATL ATS PICKS | +673
9-7 IN LAST 16 CAR ATS PICKS | +120
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R.J. White
Jacksonville +3
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
The Jaguars have had Indy's number lately, going 7-0-1 ATS since 2015 including that weird 6-0 shutout last year where Frank Reich's squad had no answer for the Jacksonville defense. Having Nick Foles back could mean the Colts defense is hit with plays and concepts that they haven't seen on tape, and he figures to be an upgrade for the offense even after Gardner Minshew had his bright moments. The Jacksonville defense might be the best unit in this game, and road teams coming off a bye have been profitable against the spread long-term. I can definitely see the Jaguars winning this game even if Jacoby Brissett is back.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
23-9-1 IN LAST 33 IND ATS PICKS | +1288
8-2 IN LAST 10 JAC ATS PICKS | +582
Mike Tierney
Indianapolis -3
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
It’s tempting to pare this matchup down to the QBs. Nick Foles returns for Jacksonville, while Jacoby Brissett likely will do the same for Indianapolis. Look for Brissett, who has missed just two games, to outshine his more renown counterpart, who has been out since the opener and was waylaid for 11 games last season. Don’t overlook the probable return of Devin Funchess, the Colts’ No. 2 receiver who was injured, like Foles, on the season’s first weekend. Indy’s improved rush defense should hem in RB Leonard Fournette.
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 NFL PICKS | +387
11-5 IN LAST 16 JAC ATS PICKS | +575
9-6 IN LAST 15 IND ATS PICKS | +243
Hank Goldberg
Jacksonville +3
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Even though Jacoby Brissett likely is coming back, I don't trust him without his top receiver. Indy has defensive injuries while Jacksonville is rested and getting Nick Foles back. Indy should have parted ways with Adam Vinatieri. Take the Jaguars.
7-3 IN LAST 10 JAC ATS PICKS | +377
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R.J. White
N.Y. Jets +1.5
N.Y. Jets @ Washington | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Washington's passing offense is atrocious, with incredibly low yardage totals as Bill Callahan doesn't even bother to throw. I doubt Dwayne Haskins has gotten leaps and bounds better over the bye, so I expect a lot of running the ball again this week. But the Jets are No. 1 in yards per rush allowed and No. 2 in rush DVOA on defense, so they should be able to stop that attack. And with the Jets offense looking like it's finally on the upswing, we can trust them to not be shut down by a mediocre defense in Washington, where the Redskins have lost eight straight games.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
17-12 IN LAST 29 WAS ATS PICKS | +373
Emory Hunt
Washington -1
N.Y. Jets @ Washington | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Dwayne Haskins was named the Redskins' starting quarterback for the rest of the season, and he has had two weeks to prepare for the Jets. He got his first start against Buffalo, and he didn't turn the ball over and showed improvement over previous outings. He will show further improvement here against a thin Jets secondary.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
14-10 IN LAST 24 WAS ATS PICKS | +274
Larry Hartstein
N.Y. Jets +1.5
N.Y. Jets @ Washington | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
The Jets are coming off a win in which they totally shut down the Giants' running game. Now they'll face a Washington team that will try to run all day, especially with rookie Dwayne Haskins starting again. Grab the points as New York makes it two in a row.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ ATS PICKS | +80
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R.J. White
Miami +6
Buffalo @ Miami | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
This is a lot of points to lay for a Bills team that hasn't been good on offense going on the road to play a team that's on a 5-0 ATS streak. Miami isn't the same team that was getting blasted in September, and the defense in particular has started to come together over the last few weeks and is giving 100 percent week in and week out. They should be able to slow a Buffalo offense that's 25th in DVOA and 26th in points per drive. The first game between these two had an artificially inflated final score due to an onside kick return touchdown, and there's no reason Miami can't win outright here.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
9-5-1 IN LAST 15 BUF ATS PICKS | +353
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +91
Emory Hunt
Miami +6
Buffalo @ Miami | 11/17 | 1:00 PM EST
Break up the Dolphins. Miami is on a two-game winning streak, and this has been a completely different team since its Week 5 bye. The Dolphins have been in every game since then and have found stability with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills aren't getting that from 2018 first-round pick Josh Allen, so giving 6 points or a full touchdown to the Bills isn't a good bet.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIA ATS PICKS | +293
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Mike Tierney
Arizona +10
Arizona @ San Francisco | 11/17 | 4:05 PM EST
The short week matters for San Francisco, which was left reeling from a Monday night overtime loss to the Seahawks. The 49ers might have to dip into the depth chart for skill position players, as RB Matt Breida, WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE George Kittle are all ailing. The Cardinals came within three points of the 49ers just two weeks ago in the desert, and rookie QB Kyler Murray gets better with every game. Unappreciated Arizona has covered in five of the latest six overall and away from home.
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 NFL PICKS | +387
Tom Fornelli
Arizona +10.5
Arizona @ San Francisco | 11/17 | 4:05 PM EST
These two met just a couple of weeks ago with San Francisco winning by three points in Arizona. Is returning home to San Francisco worth a touchdown to the Niners? Color me skeptical, particularly when considering the Niners will likely be without George Kittle, and possibly Emmanuel Sanders as well. All that plus a short week makes the Cardinals an enticing play.
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +91
5-0 IN LAST 5 SF ATS PICKS | +500
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +95
Emory Hunt
Arizona +11.5
Arizona @ San Francisco | 11/17 | 4:05 PM EST
These teams met two weeks ago, and we should see completely different game plans as a result. The one benefit the Cardinals have is that their passing game is growing by leaps and bounds each week. The 49ers got banged up a bit in their Monday Night loss against Seattle, so look for a close game out West.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
9-5 IN LAST 14 ARI ATS PICKS | +343
Larry Hartstein
Arizona +13.5
Arizona @ San Francisco | 11/17 | 4:05 PM EST
The 49ers are on a short week, and it's unclear if they'll have Emmanuel Sanders or George Kittle -- Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite targets. Kyler Murray gave San Fran fits when these teams met in Arizona recently. Grab the points.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
11-6-1 IN LAST 18 SF ATS PICKS | +438
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Tom Fornelli
New England -3.5
New England @ Philadelphia | 11/17 | 4:25 PM EST
Not only are the Eagles going against the Patriots with the Pats coming off a bye, but the Pats are also coming off a loss. That's not great news for the Eagles! The Pats have always been monsters against the spread under Bill Belichick, but since 2005 the Pats are 36-16 ATS off a loss as well as 14-9-1 ATS coming off a bye. In other words, the Eagles are catching New England at the wrong time.
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +91
4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS | +168
Hank Goldberg
New England -3.5
New England @ Philadelphia | 11/17 | 4:25 PM EST
Bill Belichick is so tough coming off a bye, and this is a double revenge game for the Patriots. People are starting to say Eagles coach Doug Pederson has Belichick's number -- that's pretty dangerous talk. Tom Brady is 11-3 straight-up coming off a bye. He's got Mohamed Sanu to go with Julian Edelman and James White. And Brady has thrown for more yardage than Carson Wentz. New England's secondary will make it real tough on Wentz.
7-2 IN LAST 9 NE ATS PICKS | +481
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ATS PICKS | +93
Emory Hunt
New England -3.5
New England @ Philadelphia | 11/17 | 4:25 PM EST
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, with the Patriots stewing over their embarrassing loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia doesn't challenge the Patriots defense in the same way the Ravens did. Where the Eagles have a shot is working their tight ends and newfound run game into the mix early. Ultimately, the Pats will force Eagles QB Carson Wentz to beat them consistently downfield, and I don't think he can. Patriots cover.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
22-13-1 IN LAST 36 PHI ATS PICKS | +759
3-0 IN LAST 3 NE ATS PICKS | +300
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Emory Hunt
Oakland -10.5
Cincinnati @ Oakland | 11/17 | 4:25 PM EST
On paper, this looks like a trap game for the 5-4 Raiders. In reality, the Bengals don't have the offensive line or the stability at quarterback to threaten the Raiders. Expect Oakland to put on a show in front of the faithful fans at the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. Jon Gruden is putting himself in the Coach of the Year conversation.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
5-0 IN LAST 5 CIN ATS PICKS | +500
Larry Hartstein
Oakland -10
Cincinnati @ Oakland | 11/17 | 4:25 PM EST
The Raiders are in the thick of the playoff race, they had extra rest, and they're at home. They're facing a Bengals team giving up 6.7 yards per play, easily the most in the NFL. Lay it before the line moves off this key number.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
12-7 IN LAST 19 CIN ATS PICKS | +428
5-4 IN LAST 9 OAK ATS PICKS | +51
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Tom Fornelli
UNDER 40.5
Chicago @ L.A. Rams | 11/17 | 8:20 PM EST
This is a battle of two quarterbacks you want to fade, which makes it the perfect game for an Under. Both of these teams have questionable QBs and questionable offensive lines. That doesn't strike me as a formula conducive to a lot of points being scored.
9-4 IN LAST 13 NFL O/U PICKS | +460
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAR O/U PICKS | +90
R.J. White
UNDER 40.5
Chicago @ L.A. Rams | 11/17 | 8:20 PM EST
Both of these defenses are in the top five of DVOA, while both offenses have struggled in recent weeks. The Rams have been able to do nothing against other top defenses like the 49ers and Steelers, while the Bears have managed 300 yards of offense just once this year and only scored 16 points in that game. The Rams are also dealing with offensive line issues that should make it tougher to stop the Bears pass rush when they have to throw. The only way this Under goes down is if the defenses make multiple trips to the end zone.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAR O/U PICKS | +300
Mike Tierney
Chicago +6.5
Chicago @ L.A. Rams | 11/17 | 8:20 PM EST
Los Angeles isn’t saying why uber-gifted RB Todd Gurley got no carries in the fourth quarter last Sunday, but an educated guess is that he was being protected because its offensive line is ravaged by injuries. Rams QB Jared Goff’s star has dipped, as he cannot create plays with shabby blocking, and WR Brandin Cooks (concussion) remains shelved. Chicago is no offensive juggernaut, but scoring close to 20 points should be sufficient for a cover. This has Rams-Steelers redux from last Sunday (17-12 final score) written all over it.
16-11-1 IN LAST 28 NFL PICKS | +387
12-8 IN LAST 20 LAR ATS PICKS | +310
2-1 IN LAST 3 CHI ATS PICKS | +93
R.J. White
L.A. Rams -7
Chicago @ L.A. Rams | 11/17 | 8:20 PM EST
The Bears got a much-needed win against the Lions, but it's not as if the offense suddenly woke up out of its funk. The Bears had just 226 yards of offense in Week 10, making it the fourth time in their last five games they've failed to gain even 260 yards. The Rams' strong defense continued against the Steelers, and I expect that unit to dictate the game while Sean McVay leans on the rushing attack to get a win. And I doubt we have to worry about a backdoor cover from Mitchell Trubisky if we're up in the fourth quarter. Lay it with L.A.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
24-11-1 IN LAST 36 LAR ATS PICKS | +1157
24-12-1 IN LAST 37 CHI ATS PICKS | +1101
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King Creole Sports NFL
3* Over 49.5 Saints at Tampa Bay
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Big AL
3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5
3* “Over” Bears/Rams
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Virgobbi Sports
Week 11:
TB +5.5 (-110)
NYJ +2.5 (-111)
MIA +6.5 (+101)
ARI +10.5 (-123)
CIN +11.5 (-102)
LAC +4 (-113)
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