Service Plays Saturday 2/15/20

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Sportsline Computer

South Carolina St -147

Sam Houston -8.5

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Zack Cimini

PEPPERDINE +15
GONZAGA @ PEPPERDINE | 2/15 | 10:00 PM EST
3:00 PM
Earlier this season Pepperdine gave Gonzaga its toughest home test of the season. The Bulldogs were tied with Pepperdine at halftime and had to pull away late to defeat the Waves 75-70. Electric Pepperdine guard Colbey Ross scored 24 points in that matchup but had 10 turnovers. Expect Ross to cut back on his turnovers and Pepperdine to hang within an inflated number. Grab Pepperdine.

48-35-4 IN LAST 87 CBB ATS PICKS | +911
2-1 IN LAST 3 GONZAG ATS PICKS | +90

SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5
TENNESSEE @ SOUTH CAROLINA | 2/15 | 6:00 PM EST
2:56 PM
Pace of play is expected to be tight today with South Carolina against Tennessee. In the teams' first matchup, both teams produced a conference-low scoring output as the Vols won 56-55. Grab the value on a Gamecocks team that has won five of six and has quietly moved up to fourth place in the SEC.

48-35-4 IN LAST 87 CBB ATS PICKS | +911
3-0-1 IN LAST 4 TENN ATS PICKS | +300

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Sportsline Computer

SE Missouri St -142

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John Bollman

TAMPA BAY -188
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY | 2/15 | 4:00 PM EST
3:47 PM
The Lightning are the hottest team in the NHL right now having won nine straight games. They are 19-7-2 at home leading the league scoring 4.0 goals per game. They give up the 10th fewest goals per game at home with 2.71 goals per game. The Flyers have also been hot going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, but they are just 13-14-3 on the road this season. The Lightning have already beat the Flyers once in Philly this season and they have bet the Flyers in four straight. Take the Lightning at home.

33-19-1 IN LAST 53 NHL PICKS | +1067
7-2 IN LAST 9 TB ML PICKS | +429

5-3 IN LAST 8 PHI ML PICKS | +77

OVER 6
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY | 2/15 | 4:00 PM EST
3:47 PM
The Lightning lead the league in home goals per game at 4.0 and the Flyers average 2.9 road goals per game, so it is easy to see where this came from. The Lightning have the best home power play in the league at 33.3% effectiveness. The Lightning are 17-10 with the over at home while the Flyers are 19-11 with the over on the road. Take the over.

33-19-1 IN LAST 53 NHL PICKS | +1067
3-1 IN LAST 4 TB O/U PICKS | +198

WASHINGTON -133
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA | 2/15 | 10:00 PM EST
3:44 PM
The Caps have been struggling recently winning only 11 of their last 20 games, however they looked like themselves again in the last two periods of the Aves game. They have the most road wins in the league with a 21-6-1 road record. The Coyotes have been seriously struggling without Darcy Kuemper to just a 2-5-3 record in their last 10 games. They are just 13-11-4 at home. Each of the last six years these teams have split the season series, and the Coyotes won the first matchup between these two. The Caps are tied for the most road goals per game in the league with 3.68 and they have the sixth best road power play in the league at 23.4% effectiveness.

33-19-1 IN LAST 53 NHL PICKS | +1067
12-7 IN LAST 19 WAS ML PICKS | +231

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Brandon Lovell

Must Win Highest Rated Blank Check CBB Lock #4


New Mexico State Aggies -13 over Utah Valley


New Mexico State comes into this game on a 14 game win streak and a month ago they beat Utah Valley by 14 on road. Here is the thing about that game. They did not play particularly well yet were still able to easily win by double digits. The difference there was their length and rebounding, which is still going to be a major problem for Utah Valley this evening. Add in the home crowd and emotion and this lines up to be a blowout.


Utah Valley has lost 3 straight and they are on back to back road games coming off an 8 point loss to UT Rio Grande Valley. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games and those 2 wins in there, they easily could have lost.


This is a bad spot for Utah Valley and New Mexico State should jump all over them early and then continue to wear them down as the game goes along. I would be highly surprised if the Lobos won by less than 20. Should be an easy blowout here as New Mexico State is better, bigger and more athletic in every area. Lay the points

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LV Wolf
742 smu +2 (-120)

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Micah Roberts

UCLA -3
WASHINGTON @ UCLA | 2/15 | 10:00 PM EST
1:28 PM
UCLA has won six of its last eight games after suffering through a 4-9 run. The Bruins are playing hard and have had their rating boosted a few points over the past month. Over the same time span as UCLA rising, the Huskies have basically quit, losing their last seven games (0-7 ATS). They started 10-2 and beat Baylor, but now the Pac-12 is abusing them. UCLA gets the win and cover.

12-8 IN LAST 20 CBB ATS PICKS | +312
4-0 IN LAST 4 WASH ATS PICKS | +400

5-2 IN LAST 7 UCLA ATS PICKS | +274

RUTGERS -4
ILLINOIS @ RUTGERS | 2/15 | 4:30 PM EST
1:20 PM
Illinois has lost its last three games, the last two at home, while Rutgers has dropped three of its last four. The road in Big Ten play has been difficult for Rutgers, but at home it has been electric and a perfect 16-0 (10-4-1 ATS). The Rutgers defense takes it up a notch at home, allowing opponents to shoot only 36 percent from the field. I’m on Rutgers.

12-8 IN LAST 20 CBB ATS PICKS | +312
COLORADO -2
COLORADO @ OREGON ST. | 2/15 | 10:00 PM EST
1:18 PM
Colorado is hanging on to a half-game lead in the Pac-12 after blowing a 9-point half-time lead at Oregon Thursday night, getting outscored by 17-points in the second half. It was bad a loss despite Oregon being very good, but the Buffs are a good enough team to use it a lesson and bounce back. Oregon State has won three of its last four, but I like Colorado to get the cover here.

12-8 IN LAST 20 CBB ATS PICKS | +312
5-1 IN LAST 6 COLO ATS PICKS | +388

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SleepyJ
800 Pepperdine 15.0 (-110) 5dimes vs 799 Gonzaga

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
Way to many points to give Pepperdine at home tonight. This is the superbowl of the season for Pepperdine and they played the Zags tough already this season. These teams aren't that far apart in the stat area in certain areas. I think that's enough for Pepperdine to keep this close. Gonzaga is due for a scare. I think this might e the game.

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Greg Shaker
807 Arizona - 808 Stanford UNDER 135.0 triple-dime bet
Added Write up

808 Stanford / 807 Arizona Under 135.0 Pinnacle

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
We use 3 CBB Models, all developed differently to pick different ways. They help us SPOT Potential Totals and all 3 have agreed that this number is too high. It is not the only thing we use but it is a starting point. We also use techniques that as far as I know have not yet been discovered by others including books. While these are not fail proof techniques they have been very profitable over the last few years. We also use offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, pace, projected pace, venue trends, league and division trends, injuries, along with other more "Standard" Handicapping Principles to get our final number and possibly make a play rated at 1* 2* and 3*.


This game not about PACE but it is about Defense and both squads do that very well Ranked #32 and #10 for D Efficiency in the land. Actually both are Pacing lower here late in the season and this is the sort of game that we love to play UNDER with the short dog at home and a solid defense. Numerous database entries support our case here with Tons of UNDER Trends as well. I don't really know where the number is going as this one is late night and apt to get lot's of action throughout the day. My best guess is that it will remain stable but could tic up some. All 3 Models love this one and we do too so you can play 3* at the best number you can find. As always it mostly about the NUMBER and thi£s one is going to be too high most of the time. Let's Play..


Pick Made: Feb 15 2020 6:31AM PST

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Seabass final update: 400 Vegas game over, 400 LSU, 400 Pepperdine, 500 UNC, 500 Maryland, 600 Houston, 1000 * Creighton

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Kyle Marley

Corey Anderson -200 vs. Jan Blachowicz +170: Anderson via unanimous decision

This is a rematch of a fight Anderson dominated for a unanimous decision. This should come down to whether Anderson's chin can hold up. If so, I expect the same outcome. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he should have no issue winning rounds against Blachowicz with his wrestling. He was 4-for-4 on takedowns in their first fight and now he has a possible title shot on the line with a win. He also can hang on the feet, but his biggest issue is his chin and Blachowicz has power. If Blachowicz doesn't get the knockout, I don't see how he gets his hand raised.

Michel Pereira -155 vs. Diego Sanchez +135: Pereira via TKO

Pereira looks to be a knockout-or-bust type fighter, while Sanchez is toward the end of his career. I think the most likely outcome is a Pereira knockout and that is what I am picking. However, if he doesn't get it, Sanchez can grind him out and possibly even out-strike him over the course of three rounds. Not sure I would want to lay the juice here, but I think Pereira takes him out early.

Devin Clark -310 vs. Dequan Townsend +255: Clark via unanimous decision

Townsend is coming off a loss just a couple weeks ago and this is another bad matchup for him. Aside from a knockout, I don't see how Townsend wins. Clark has more power, throws more volume and is a way better wrestler. I think Clark uses his wrestling to grind out a 30-27 decision.

Montana De La Rosa -165 vs. Mara Romero Borella +145: Borella via split decision

This is a close one, but I think De La Rosa is the better grappler and Borella is the better striker. I think De La Rosa can keep rounds close on the feet and use her wrestling to try and steal rounds, but she isn't a great wrestler. I wouldn't want to rely on her having to get the fight to the mat. I think she probably wins this fight the majority of the time, but it might be a dog-or-pass pass situation. I might change my pick on this later in the week, but right now I will take the underdog in a close fight.

Brok Weaver -280 vs. Kazula Vargas +240: Weaver via unanimous decision

I have a new rule, for now anyway, to stay away from betting favorites in their UFC debuts. So, I will be staying away from Weaver, but I think he gets the job done. He is the better fighter everywhere and can win this fight with his boxing or grappling. I would say the one edge Vargas has is power, so he should be looking for a knockout.

Lando Vannata -115 vs. Yancy Medeiros -105: Vannata via TKO

These guys like to throw down and this could be the Fight of the Night. Medeiros is going to be the bigger, longer guy and that could cause Vannata issues on the feet. I think Vannata is more well-rounded and more dangerous. This is a close fight, but I would give Vannata slightly better than a 50-50 chance, so he is my pick and if he becomes an underdog I would be interested in a play.

Tim Means -255 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +215: Means via TKO

Rodriguez is making his UFC debut at 33 years old and this looks like a rough matchup. He will be the younger fighter, looks to be the guy with more power and he can fight at a high pace. I just think he is too hittable and not technical enough for a guy like Means, and I think Means makes this a dirty fight and possibly finishes late.

Nathaniel Wood -155 vs. John Dodson +135: Wood via unanimous decision

Wood is the up-and-coming prospect and Dodson is the proven veteran. This will be Wood's toughest fight to date, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere. Dodson used to have a lot of power, but he hasn't knocked anyone out in almost four years and he has been way too inactive in fights lately. Wood looks like he could be a serious contender and I expect him to be the fighter throwing more volume, landing the harder shots and the one more likely to land takedowns.

Scott Holtzman -130 vs. Jim Miller +110: Holtzman via unanimous decision

I think Holtzman is the better overall striker with a higher pace, more power and the better chin. I also think he is the better wrestler. Miller is the better grappler and more likely to get a submission. I don't see Holzman dominating, but I think he wins this fight more often than he loses. I will take him to win at least two of the three rounds.

Ray Borg -145 vs. Rogerio Bontorin +125: Bontorin by split decision

This should be a fun one between an up-and-coming prospect in Bontorin and a veteran in Borg. I think Bontorin is going to be the better striker and more dangerous on the feet. I think Borg is the better grappler and I expect this fight to include a decent amount of grappling. If Borg can land takedowns, he can win rounds with top control and possibly lock up a submission. I don't see him having much success on the feet, and we could see Bontorin land takedowns of his own. I think this is going to be a dog-or-pass fight for me, so I will take Bontorin as my pick.

Merab Dvalishvili -165 vs. Casey Kenney +145: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision

I am looking forward to this one. Both guys have impressed me in their UFC fights and we should see some good grappling. Dvalishvili sets a crazy pace and I don't see that changing. I think he is the better wrestler and I expect him to get Kenney down multiple times. I think Kenney is the better striker of the and he is a good wrestler-grappler as well. He could have success there. I think Dvalishvili's pace and wrestling will be the difference. He lands 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and Kenney has been taken down 10 times in his two UFC fights.

Macy Chiasson vs. Shanna Young (odds unavailable): Chiasson via submission

This was originally going to be Chiasson vs Nicco Montano, but Montano pulled out Monday and Young accepted the fight on four days' notice. Chiasson didn't look good at all in her last fight, but she definitely has potential and I think she is the better fighter everywhere. There is no line on this fight yet, but I think Chiasson will be a big favorite and I think she could finish on the feet or the ground.

Raulian Paiva -210 vs. Mark De La Rosa +175: Paiva via unanimous decision

I think Paiva is the better fighter everywhere and, aside from getting submitted, I don't see him losing. De La Rosa is solid on the ground, but he isn't a good wrestler. I think Paiva will dictate where this fight takes place and I will take Paiva to win a pretty clear decision.

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Worlds Worst Picker CBB

Final 2
Peabody’s picks
Providence
Arizona

We take
Seton Hall
Stanford

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Ben Burns

GOY - Colorado