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Al Cimaglia: May 25-Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis
May 25, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Scioto Downs has increased the 0.50 Pick 5 guarantee to $20,000 which should lead to a larger pool. The Pick 5 starts in Race 5, it has a 14% takeout and appears to be a challenging sequence.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 5
4-Bettor's Dream (4-1)-Six-year-old makes first start at ScD off a sharp qualifier. Miller picked #7 instead but Page has been doing well. This is a tough race but could score with a top effort.
5-Picard A (4-1)- Qualifier was better than the line looks and should enjoy the company. Raced evenly last week, but went the back half in .57, last 1/4 in 28.2 and could be sitting on a big try coming off the bench.
7-Don't Ask Logan (5-1)-Likes to get on the engine and was used hard to get the lead. Faded down the lane in qualifier but the 27.1 opening quarter from the 7-hole was quick. Should be tighter and could make every call a winning one.
Race 6
1-Elm Grove Maddy (7/2)-Even qualifier but in a spot to get sucked around and roll by late. 0-10 this year but that may not tell the entire story. Off-track record is only 2-28 and 7 of 10 starts in 2020 have been on a wet surface.
2-I M Mccited (9/2)-Tuned up in Delaware and shows a win in 6 starts at ScD. Looking for Miller to provide a good journey and have in striking range. Using at a square price in another contentious race.
5-Stay Gold (5/2)-Fits with this crew, has two wins in 13 starts at ScD. If Brewer finds some live cover it could be picture time.
Race 7
5-Ucrywheniflyby (5-1)-Went the back half in 57.2 in qualifier and Sutton can find some live cover from this post. Looks like a player at a fair price if keeps trotting.
10-Toasted By Twelve (9/1)-Makes 2nd start on Lasix and was staked in Ohio last year. Morgan trainee did win his barn debut. Looking for another big try here if Miller works a trip and keeps his mind on business.
Race 8
1-Elmo Blatch (5/2)-Comes off two nice qualifiers and it seems like breaking issues may have been solved. Will use and then look to the outside instead of #4 the program chalk, who is 0-6 at ScD.
7-Cowboy Country (6-1)-Tuned-up nicely at Nfld and now makes first start at ScD. Should like the company and if is in striking range at the 3/4's chances for success go up.
8-Stonebridge Symba (6-1)-Makes first start on Lasix and kept coming in last week's qualifier. Does need the right trip but has faced better. Looks to be worth a swing at 6-1 in the ML and thinking Miller will provide a good steer.
Race 9
2-Star Guitar (3-1)-Agreeing with the program odds in this event and looking for a big effort. Will use the 2nd ML chalk and hope he is racing close to the lead turning for home.
3-Always A Fiji (2-1)-Makes first lifetime start at ScD and lands in a good spot. Team Brewer trainee has some versatility and should be able to capture third win of 2020 at a short price with a decent trip.
0.50 Pick 5
4,5,7/1,2,5/5,10/1,7,8/2,3
Total Bet=$54
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes #5 Hieroglyphics Stiff class dropper will now run at a more proper level second-off the Maker-Dubb claim, has been facing much better, drew well, and will be just off the speed; look out. #4 My Point Exactly Pace presser has been firing big numbers and has been in great form against better, so he'll like this drop too, and he figures to get first run off the turn; the one to beat. #2 Zippy Longshot drew well and has quietly been running some biggies, and there's pace here to set him up, so at a big number he may spice it up underneath; exotics appeal. Race Summary You can't make up how incorrect this 12-1 ML is on the pick, but even 9-2 or so for potent connections, with an in-form horse on a sizable class drop, seems fair value, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since he seems primed to fire a big shot against a group that will be a lot more to his liking that the ones he's been facing.
Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes #3 Septemberten Major player has a pressing/stalking gear in a race with a lot of speed, ran well while facing winners last time, and looks primed to build off that; love his chances here. #1 Unpublished Logical sort has been running well in some fast Florida breds races, is another who can sit just off the pace, fits nicely on paper, and will be a price too; very playable. #4 Jungle Warrior Stretch runner goes off the claim for Cartagena, an relatively unknown barn but one that is 2-for-7 with this angle, and the price and pace will be right too; worth a look. Race Summary The 3 really should be favored, as the two Rivelli returnees outside (#8 and #9) are off long layoffs (albeit for a potent long layoff barn) and are complete unknowns on the dirt (former) against 3up (both), while the pick has been firing right along, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he seems to be getting all the best of it here, yet you might get $9 to win on him if the tote breaks your way.
Picks Notes #6 Souper Courage Stretch runner made a hug middle move them tired two-back, then was mired in traffic last time and didn't get clear until too late, but is in fine form, will be a price, and needs only a clear, well-timed ride to get there; finally his time. #4 Machiavelli Lightly raced and improving runner just-missed while closing stoutly and beating the pick last time, and he's still got upside off just six starts, but he'll be overbet off this last, and his margin for error is a slim one; plenty scary, but no lock. #12 Valdolobo Dropper is the one to beat on a normal day, but when you draw the 12-hole here going 1m on turf, nothing is normal, so sure, he can still win, but at an underlaid price from the parking lot, you've got to look around; making him prove it. Race Summary The price will be right on the 6, even though he's right there with the 4 and 12 on paper and is overdue for a bit of luck too, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks a bit, which means a win in the $12 range might play a lot longer in both sequences.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Santa Anita - Race #1
Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes #7 Big Runneur Tactical type gets blinkers today off the bench, and he has proven an affinity for this trip in the past. If he fires fresh, he's there. #8 Torosay Turned in a clunker in the big one last time out, but he's got every right to bounce back off that effort with this softer bunch. #12 Castle Gate Would want a fair number here considering the two turf tries weren't a whole lot to look at, but the comeback run was excellent, and he's a threat if he can transfer that form to the lawn. Race Summary Big Runneur should be tough from close range, and the addition of blinkers might be what he needs to get over the top.
Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Stealthediamonds Didn't miss by much when facing the boys last time out, and though there is some other speed in here, she's going to make a break for it from the inside and might be able to hang around late. #7 Jolie Olympica Hasn't done much wrong in two starts here, and she's got positional pace to sit close even on the cutback. #2 Oleksandra Returns off the October layoff, but she looked good taking the Franklin County at Keeneland last out and has run well over the local footing. Race Summary Stealthediamonds is going to have to work for it from the fence, but the price might be right to see if she can't get brave. Jolie Olympica should get the run of the race, but she's likely to offer a short number.
Picks Notes #5 War of Will He drew a bad post in a minor stakes spot at Gulfstream and scratched from that spot in favor of this one. Bad post or not, it's really interesting to me that Casse preferred to start his campaign in a Grade I than in that minor spot. He's a talent who likes the turf, and I'll read plenty into the power move from the trainer. #11 River Boyne Reliable should get a cozy run of things from close range again, but he'll have to overcome a tough post to handle these. #1 Without Parole Still can't figure out why this guy was the chalk in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, but the cutback should work in his favor. He ran on well when third behind Uni over this local trip in the Breeders' Cup and factors with anything similar to that. Race Summary War of Will is classy enough and talented enough to win this from close range, and the confidence from his team to scratch him from a much softer spot in favor of this Grade I gets him over the top for me.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Remington Park - Race #2
Remington Park - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 Dang It Autry Comes out of good sprints and makes his 1st try at 870; has the speed and class to pass this test. #1 Inseperable HD Has a good front-runner in prior 870 starts and comes out of sprints; very capable, especially with the inside post. #3 A Prize Wagon Set for his 1st 870 attempt and has been competitive at this level and those slightly above this; can be in the mix from the outset. Race Summary Dang It Autry has a class edge and has the speed to get to the lead; tough if he gets clear.
Remington Park - Race #11
Picks Notes #1 Tough to Bee Seeks his 1st win in two year but has taken on some of the best the game has to offer; drew far outside in two of three starts here this year and can benefit from an inside run tonight. #4 Eye N Capo Has taken 12 of 23 and has run against some giants lately; fits well and can be a factor from start to finish. #3 Hooked on a Win Won this race last year and took the Mr Jet Moore two back; has plenty of talent and would not be a big surprise. Race Summary Tough to Bee was 4th in a blanket finish last time and usually draws outside when he races at Remington; he moves to the rail, which has been quite good lately.
Picks Notes #7 Gael Force Still a maiden but has been very close in all three starts vs. solid company; gets a clear run outside and can get his 1st career victory. #6 Shaking the Moon Was a sharp winner in a futurity trial; scored at 43-1 on his debut and fits well in this spot. #2 Dalts Fancy Pistol Didn't fire as the favorite in a futurity final and was a convincing winner in two prior start; could return to winning form. Race Summary Gael Force has been close and can benefit from being outside traffic; this stakes race is a fine spot for his maiden win.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
Remington Park - Race 9 Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 94 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 9:28P QUARTER HORSE 350Y, JACK BROOKS S. - FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $250 TO ENTER, STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $250. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. HORSES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATED LIFETIME EARNINGS ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS PROVIDED BY EQUIBASE WILL HAVE PREFERENCE AT TIME OF ENTRY.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOVE IS EVERYTHING V: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. UPTOWNE BABE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RITAS BACK ON TRACK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DYNASTY CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). LOVE IS EVERYTHING V UPTOWNE BABE DYNASTY CARTEL RITAS BACK ON TRACK
Line
Class
Speed
FigureRITAS BACK ON TRACK Average RELENTLESS JESSIE Average HR STORM ON IN Average DYNASTY CARTEL Average UPTOWNE BABE Fast LOVE IS EVERYTHING V Fast WAGONS DASH Fast JUICE IS LOOSE Average EW TRAIN ON FIRE Average ALOTALOTA Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
Assiniboia Downs - Race 3 Stakes • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 8:31P GO GO LOLO OVERNIGHT S. - FILLIES AND MARES, 3-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARD. WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS. OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $12,000 ONCE IN OTHER MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED IN 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. NO NOMINATION FEE - $100 TO ENTER - $100 TO START.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MISS IMPERIAL: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BROADWAY BON NIE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. I'MABARNKAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. EXACTLY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS IMPERIAL BROADWAY BONNIE I'MABARNKAT EXACTLY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureI'MABARNKAT Stalker MISS IMPERIAL Stalker EXACTLY Stalker VIDIRA Alternator/Stalker ANSTRUM Trailer BROADWAY BONNIE Trailer FAT N BITTER Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#4 ASSUME (ML=5/1)
#5 PRAIRIE WINGS (ML=7/5)
#1 SNEER (ML=7/2)
ASSUME - Filly looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. I like the fact that this filly's last speed rating, 86, is tops in this field. PRAIRIE WINGS - I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per race in this one. SNEER - Look for this filly to show lots better in this race. Last event at Gulfstream Park finishing fifth on a sloppy track is no indication of her true talent. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LASTING UNION (ML=9/2), #6 GIBBERISH (ML=8/1),
LASTING UNION - Just can't play this mount. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on March 29th. GIBBERISH - Pedestrian speed figure last out at Gulfstream Park at 1 mile. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #4 ASSUME on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: 4 with [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,2,4,5,7] with [1,2,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 75
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 4 SITTIN AND THINKIN 3/1
# 6 THANKS 2/1
# 2 HOPSCOTCHY 7/2
SITTIN AND THINKIN is my choice. Her 71 average has this filly with among the best speed figures for this race. I think having Gonzalez ride this filly is a smart selection. Has to be given a chance based on the quite good Equibase Speed Fig posted in the last race. THANKS - This filly should be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. She has been running strongly and the speed figs are among the top in this field. HOPSCOTCHY - Could beat this group of horses given the 74 speed rating posted in her last outing. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 67 speed fig which is one of the best in this field.
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park
05/25/20, SA, Race 4, 2.03 PT
05/25/20,SA,4,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $27,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 3.47/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI * 100.00 5 Enriched by Deb 7/2 Rosario J Baltas Richard SL 33.33 1.25/$1 099.01 4 Trouville 5/2 Prat F Powell Leonard JFEC 33.33 1.25/$1 098.63 11 Kelani Kim 3-1 Cedillo A Glatt Mark W 34.96 1.27/$1 098.46 9 Katsaros 4-1 Maldonado E A Bonde Jeff T 33.33 1.23/$1 095.83 7 Belle of Summer 20-1 Espinoza V Cassidy James M. 31.71 0.87/$1 095.73 3 Rosie's Pal 12-1 Valdivia. Jr. J Hess. Jr. Robert B. 31.71 0.87/$1 095.62 10 Indi Galle 20-1 Franco G Papaprodromou George 31.71 0.87/$1 095.52 2 Little Rachel 20-1 Fuentes R Garcia Victor L. 31.71 0.87/$1 095.21 6 Arya's Dagger 30-1 Pereira T J Periban Jorge 31.71 0.87/$1 091.81 8 Sapphire Silk 8-1 Rispoli U Mullins Jeff 33.33 1.25/$1 000.00 1 Viazar 1/5 No Rider Yet 31.71 0.87/$1
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $11555 Class Rating: 73
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 LIONESSE 15/1
# 6 KNOCKOUT CHICK 3/1
# 4 BLUE DADDY CARTEL 15/1
I've got to go with LIONESSE and could score at a price in here. Garnered a strong Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. KNOCKOUT CHICK - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 75 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of animals. Ramirez will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out quickly for this race. BLUE DADDY CARTEL - With a solid 58 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. The average class figure alone makes this horse a contender.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Churchill Downs - Race #7 - Post: 4:08pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $79,000 Class Rating: 78
Rating:
#4 MARKET RUMOR (ML=6/1)
#6 CLAUDETTE NONSTOP (ML=12/1)
MARKET RUMOR - Wilkes brings her back again. I propose you stay with this hot filly. The April 26th race at Gulfstream Park was at a class level of (85). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points a significant amount, so she should be in a good position. Should do well right here in this race. Weight shift of -5 from April 26th race at Gulfstream Park. CLAUDETTE NONSTOP - Horses that finish 2nd in Maiden races and finish well in front of the 3rd horse are generally good bets next time out. This filly has 'tactical' speed, Jimenez will use this advantage by laying in the catbird's seat behind the pace, and getting first run on the leaders. This animal has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 53 to 63 to 77 in succession.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 UNION MAIDEN (ML=7/2), #7 KINDA LUCKY (ML=5/1), #8 STRIPPING (ML=5/1),
UNION MAIDEN - Finished fifth last time. Would have to improve to be on the board in today's event. KINDA LUCKY - Not a good enough price on this one at the probable odds of 5/1. STRIPPING - Don't think that this filly has value at 5/1 this time around.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MARKET RUMOR - Playing the top earnings per start thoroughbred is an angle which won't steer you wrong in the long run. I'm betting on this one.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #4 MARKET RUMOR on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
05/25/20, CD, Race 9, 5.12 ET
05/25/20,CD,9,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $83,000 (includes up to $31,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of $26,400 Twice Over A Mile OnThe Turf Since March 25 Allowed 2 lbs. $23,400 At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Races Where Entered For $50,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One and One Sixteenth mile.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.47, ROI 1.13/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI * 100.00 2 Kulik Bear 5-1 Bridgmohan S Casse Mark E. J 42.37 1.49/$1 098.92 3 King Cause 5-1 Lopez P Magner Dermot 42.37 1.49/$1 098.64 9 Award Winner 9/2 Leparoux J R Lynch Brian A. L 42.37 1.49/$1 098.48 16 Opry 5-1 Castellano J Pletcher Todd A. 42.37 1.49/$1 098.46 12 Ramsey Solution 6-1 Gaffalione T Ward Wesley A. E 42.37 1.49/$1 098.32 15 Tribhuvan (FR) 4-1 Ortiz J L Brown Chad C. FC 42.37 1.49/$1 098.10 20 Seek the Peak 4-1 Gaffalione T Walsh Brendan P. 42.37 1.49/$1 097.96 13 (F)Set Piece (GB) 5-1 Geroux F Cox Brad H. T 42.37 1.49/$1 097.75 19 Kaziranga 5-1 Mena M Shirer Matt A. 42.37 1.49/$1 097.50 18 Lone Rock 3-1 Santana. Jr. R VanMeter William B. 42.37 1.49/$1 095.99 10 Markitoff 6-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Kenneally Eddie 42.37 1.49/$1 095.06 7 Morocco 8-1 Ortiz J L Maker Michael J. S 42.37 1.49/$1 094.98 4 Lost in Limbo 15-1 Talamo J Proctor Thomas F. 42.37 1.49/$1 094.42 1 Hierarchy 10-1 Graham J Sharp Joe 42.37 1.49/$1 094.20 14 Bundibunan 10-1 Lanerie C J Correas. IV Ignacio 42.37 1.49/$1 093.21 6 Federal Law 12-1 Carroll D Casse Mark E. 42.37 1.49/$1 093.10 5 Limonite 10-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 42.37 1.49/$1 092.95 17 Tiz Mischief 8-1 Talamo J Romans Dale L. 42.37 1.49/$1 092.78 8 Evil Eye 50-1 Bermudez S E Cahill Steven F. W 42.37 1.49/$1 090.26 11 My Bariley 15-1 Sanjur S Granitz Anthony J. 42.37 1.49/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.89, ROI 1.01/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI * 100.00 20 Seek the Peak 4-1 Gaffalione T Walsh Brendan P. 24.87 0.82/$1 099.74 2 Kulik Bear 5-1 Bridgmohan S Casse Mark E. J 24.87 0.82/$1 098.62 12 Ramsey Solution 6-1 Gaffalione T Ward Wesley A. FE 24.87 0.82/$1 098.50 16 Opry 5-1 Castellano J Pletcher Todd A. 32.28 1.13/$1 098.39 3 King Cause 5-1 Lopez P Magner Dermot 24.87 0.82/$1 096.91 15 Tribhuvan (FR) 4-1 Ortiz J L Brown Chad C. C 29.73 1.07/$1 096.07 10 Markitoff 6-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Kenneally Eddie 24.87 0.82/$1 095.63 13 (F)Set Piece (GB) 5-1 Geroux F Cox Brad H. T 24.87 0.82/$1 095.12 19 Kaziranga 5-1 Mena M Shirer Matt A. 32.28 1.13/$1 094.58 4 Lost in Limbo 15-1 Talamo J Proctor Thomas F. W 34.02 1.11/$1 094.31 18 Lone Rock 3-1 Santana. Jr. R VanMeter William B. 40.51 1.04/$1 094.17 7 Morocco 8-1 Ortiz J L Maker Michael J. S 24.87 0.82/$1 093.80 9 Award Winner 9/2 Leparoux J R Lynch Brian A. L 32.28 1.13/$1 093.78 1 Hierarchy 10-1 Graham J Sharp Joe 24.87 0.82/$1 092.71 17 Tiz Mischief 8-1 Talamo J Romans Dale L. 32.84 1.08/$1 092.30 14 Bundibunan 10-1 Lanerie C J Correas. IV Ignacio 32.28 1.13/$1 092.00 8 Evil Eye 50-1 Bermudez S E Cahill Steven F. 24.87 0.82/$1 091.22 11 My Bariley 15-1 Sanjur S Granitz Anthony J. 24.87 0.82/$1 090.40 5 Limonite 10-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 34.02 1.11/$1 090.00 6 Federal Law 12-1 Carroll D Casse Mark E. 32.28 1.13/$1
Monday, May 25: Ruidoso Downs Full-Card Picks
May 25, 2020
From Ruidoso Downs Handicapper, Tim Keithley
Race 1 (3:00PM ET) - Optional Claiming ($10K) - $10,185 - 7 1/2 Furlongs
WILMAS’S IRISH ROVER (#1) is a significant class dropper here; competed for $30k last time the gelding was on the local track; let’s go.
HOWDY (#8) is still plenty feisty for an eight-year-old; 45 lifetime starts and $280k in earnings.
REBACK HOME (#7) is a grizzled veteran race horse with 25 local starts and 10 wins.
Race 2 (3:25PM ET) - Maiden Claiming ($6.5K) - $6,720 - 300 Yards
STREAKIN RECKLESS (#2) was dq’d out of maiden win here last summer; still lookin’ for that elusive first win—maybe today.
JR LITTLE REGARD (#7) has a recent nice work to consider; 11.91 seconds at 220.
VOICE OF ACTION (#5) is at lowest claiming level of the gelding’s career; capable of an upset.
Race 3 (3:50PM ET) - Claiming ($10K) - $9,765 - 5 Furlongs
ANOTHER BROTHER (#7) is a local favorite with bettors; 8 of 10 lifetime in the money at Ruidoso Downs.
AMOR N PASION (#8) just won a claiming race by 16 lengths? Muddy track and the forecast calls for rain Monday afternoon.
WHEREDOESTHECASHGO (#2) is the early speedster; let’s see if she gets caught.
Race 4 (4:15PM ET) - Maiden Special Weigh - $11,555 - 350 Yards
KNOCKOUT CHICK (#6) was always the bridesmaid last year with three second-place finishes; let’s bet across just in case.
JESS A DASHER (#1) was thrown into he wolves last fall over at Zia Park; this bunch looks easier so expect improvement.
DADDYS FASTER (#8) seems to hang around other runners without winning; expect the same.
Race 5 (4:40PM ET) - Maiden Special Weight - $8,190 - 300 Yards
DF FABULOUS FIRE (#6) was an impressive schooling race winner; gaining experience here for later in the summer.
JLC STEAL YOUR CASH (#7) races alongside the top pick; gotta help his chances.
JALAPENO BABY (#1) is 12-1; worth strong consideration is wide-open event.
Race 6 (5:05PM ET) - Claiming ($5K) - $7,350 - 5 1/2 Furlongs
MY BOY ZAYN (#4) shortens up the distance and drops in class; let’s go.
SICULO (#3) is the wildcard we’re dealing with here—previous Delmar lines create a big question mark.
FIELD GENERAL (#1) drips in class today; inconsistent sort—prefer top pick.
Race 7 (5:30PM ET) - Claiming ($5K) - $7,350 - 400 Yards
PR VOLCOM (#7) won in January; that’s more than the others can report.
ABOUTI TOO SHOES (#9) lights the board half the time; betting across.
Y YOU SO MEAN (#8) is the class dropper; should race much improved.
Race 8 (5:55PM ET) - Claiming ($7.5K) - $10,150 - 5 Furlongs
A ZENON NITE (#8) goes from mid-level allowance to claiming ranks; let’s get our picture taken here.
DRIVE THRU GARY (#4) has been racing much improved; 6-1 is a fair price.
ICED (#2) is a longshot with a chance; big class dropper at 10-1.
Race 9 (6:20PM ET) - Allowance - $15,205 - 300 Yards
VEERY’S VERSION (#9) keeps cashing paychecks time after time and trainer Barton finds a nice spot to drop the mare into without fear of claiming.
HOLLYWOOD N CROWN (#10) should race alongside top pick to make one another run faster.
GO BIGG DADDY (#2) has one start and one win; can’t do much better than that.
RACE 10 (6:45PM ET) - Allowance - $14,955 - 5 1/2 Furlongs
EVACUEE (#4) is our best bet of the day for Fincher barn; here’s a youngster that competed for $100k at Sunland and runs for minor allowance purse.
INDEFINATELY (#9) impressed many in the spring with a five length score; tougher field today.
SEVEN SILVER COINS (#6) will likely outbreak the top two selections and set the pace; here they come.
Race 11 (7:10PM ET) - John Andreini Memorial - $40,000 - 350 Yards
CONSIGLIERE (#4) had a three-race win streak until last time at Remington; clearly a top-notch race horse.
BOTTICELLI (#7) is an eight-year-old that has won four in a row; obviously appears to be in top form.
FLASH FOR CORONA (#6) is 15-1 and on a two-race win streak? Worth a buck or two.
Race 12 (7:35PM ET) - Maiden Claiming ($6.5K) - $8,470 - 5 1/2 Furlongs
MAIL MAN M G (#7) is a class dropper with a talented rider; like his chances.
FORTY FIVES STORM (#10) already won but suffered a dq; knows how to win.
JEWEL OF NAVARONE (#4) will keep running till the wire; gotta use in exotics.
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 5/25/20
May 25, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Monday, May 25, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers:
Churchill Downs – 7th race. Post Time: 4:08 ET
2-Union Maiden (7/2)
Blew the break and lost all chance when a well-backed favorite at 4/5 in her debut at Gulfstream Park in February but closed a big gap to be a close fifth and galloped out full of run in a much better-than-looked performance. Away for three months, the daughter of Union Rags returns for C. Brown with a healthy, steady series of workouts, retains J. Castellano, and gets an extra half furlong to work with. Hopefully, she leaves with her field this time and if so she can make amends at 7/2 on the morning line.
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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Mystic Flight-GB; 7-Big Runnuer; 8-Torosay
Forecast: Big Runnuer can fire fresh (won his debut) and has been victorious over this course and distance (again, in his debut). Away since December but with a healthy work tab that should have him fit and ready, the son of Stormy Atlantic is lightly-raced with further improvement likely and will be wearing blinkers for the first time, so he should be in the fray throughout. Reunited with “win rider” R. Fuentes, the lightly-raced 5-year-old is fast on figures and has the ideal stalking style to keep him free of trouble. At 7/2 on the morning line, he deserves top billing, but there are others in here that are quite capable as well, so he’s not quite a single in our book. Torosay, back from Dubai where he hit the board in two starts in good company, has looked sharp in the a.m. and should return to his best form in this considerably softer first-level allowance dash. The Goldencents gelding broke his maiden easily over the local lawn at this trip last fall and on paper appears to be the most dangerous of the need-the-lead types. For a price, we’ll toss in the English invader Mystic Flight-GB, listed at 12-1 on the morning line. Away since September of 2018, the gelding hasn’t impressed in his recent workouts but all of his local preparation has been done on dirt, and he’s clearly a grass specialist. Based on his Timeform numbers from a couple of years back, the R. Ellis-trained 5-year-old is more than good enough to act at this level and as a first-time Lasix user he could be dangerous over firm ground he apparently prefers.
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RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hendavid; 6-Dyn O Mite; 7-Lozlovian
Forecast: We’re largely guessing in this maiden 2-year-old sprint, so we’re not going to get too involved other than to include the three logical main contenders in our rolling exotic play. Hendavid hails from a barn that specifically points its young stock for win-early performances at this meeting and the son of Overanalyze appears to have done some good work at the training center in Utah prior to his arrival. We’ll put him on top while also including Dyn O Mite, certainly bred to be quick (Goldencents) and attracting F. Prat, who usually only rides first-time starting 2-year-olds if he gets a “story,” and Lozlovian, a San Luis Rey Downs shipper with a couple of bullet workouts on his resume and with a pedigree (Rattlesnake Bridge) to be a quick type.
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RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Colonial Creed; 4-Message
Forecast: Colonial Creed, in her second start off a long layoff, should be fitter today while returning to the main track and switching to F. Prat, so we’ll give the Jimmy Creed filly a slight edge on top in a race that she projects to be the controlling speed (her preferred trip). Good recent workouts indicate the R. Baltas-trained filly is right on edge. Message disappointed in the La Canada S.-G2 after which she was given plenty of time off, and she, too, has been working like she’s ready to bounce back in a big way for Baffert. She’ll likely enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Trouville; 5-Enriched by Deb; 11-Kelani Kim
Forecast: There appears to be three main players in this maiden $40,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares. Trouville, in the frame in her four last starts and overdue for a win, may have found a field she can finally beat. She’s reunited with F. Prat, has a good stalking style to allow for a trouble-free journey, and on pure numbers is good enough to win. Enriched By Deb flashed speed before gradually weakening in a maiden $50,000 affair here in February but has looked much improved in the a.m. since, so we’re expecting a forward move from the R. Baltas-trained daughter of Munnings. She goes from A. Espinoza to J. Rosario, so there’s that, too. Kelani Kim, drawn comfortably outside, has the route-to-sprint angle we like along with being a first-time-in-a-claimer play, so this Union Rags filly is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Additionally, she’s shown improvement in the a.m. and switches to A. Cedillo, so the M. Glatt-trained filly, already a contender based strictly on numbers, absolutely is a “must use.”
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RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Stealthediamonds; 7-Jolie Olimpico-BRZ
Forecast: We’re going to try to get past the Monrovia S.-G2 using just two in our rolling exotics, but if you feel the need to spread a bit deeper, go right ahead. Jolie Olimpico-BRZ was defeated for the first time in five career starts when she was worn down close home in the Buena Vista S.-G2 over a mile. She’s back sprinting where she’s clearly most comfortable, continues to look sharp in the a.m., and should bounce back with a huge effort in a race in which she projects to draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot. Her triple-digit Beyer victory in the Las Cienegas S.-G3 over this course and distance in January makes her strictly the one to beat. Stealthediamonds in the most dangerous of the pace types and from the rail she has only one way to go, on the lead, every step of the way. Winner of the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint under these conditions earlier this year, the daughter of Unusual Heat always is tough to get by when she can control the proceedings from the start. If Surrender Now – the other speed in the field – doesn’t keep her honest, the M. Puype-trained filly may take this group a very long way.
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RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Ragtime Blues; 4-Scarto
Forecast: The recent private purchase Scarto arrives fit and ready following a sharp score in a listed stakes at Gulfstream Park and with two easy breezes over the Santa Anita main track for new trainer M. Puype the son of Paynter should be capable of picking up where he left off. He’s very fast on speed figures but may settle into a stalker’s role due to the presence of recent Oaklawn Park maiden winner Ragtime Blues, a hit-and-run winner for B. Baffert after doing all of his preparatory work at Santa Anita. The son of Union Rags continues to impress in the a.m., picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and probably is a bit quicker than his chief rival, so we’re expecting gate-to-wire tactics to be employed. On numbers Scarto is the better of the two, but ‘Blues has plenty of upside and could step forward in a big way in just his third career start, just as Scarto did in his third outing. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Sea of Liberty; 8-Lemon King; 9-Three Ay Em
Forecast: Lemon King showed some moxie in graduating at first asking two-turning on grass at Del Mar last August but then was stopped on. The son of Lemon Drop Kid returns with a series of good works (looking better now than he did then) and we’re expecting the T. Yakteen-trained sophomore to settle off the pace and then produce a strong late kick. F. Prat, who was aboard ‘King last summer, stays aboard. Sea of Liberty seeks his third straight score after winning a state-bred maiden affair before repeating vs. starter’s allowance foes, both wins accomplished over this course and distance. A versatile type who can win on the lead or rallying from mid-pack, the Boisterous gelding has been kept on edge by doing good work in the a.m. for J. Sadler, and with rising speed figures with each start he appears strictly the one to beat. Three Ay Em, genuine and consistent and in the frame in six of his last seven starts but away since December, is a 4-year-old eligible to his state-bred affair due to the fact that he’s been entered for the $20,000 tag. Based on speed figures he’s worth more than that, so we wonder if his connections are trying to lose him, or simply going after the big $51,000 pot (or perhaps both). In any event, we’ll toss him in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Buyer’s Remorse; 9-Fierce for Sul
Forecast: Fierce for Sul, a $650,00 2-year-old in training purchase last year, was entered earlier this month in a turf sprint but was scratched. She’s trained very well since, so she’s obviously healthy, and the B. Baffert-trained daughter of Speightstown looks to have plenty of talent, certainly enough to win at first asking in this maiden special weight abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she probably won’t offer too much in the way of wagering value. She’ll be the main push in our rolling exotics, but we will have a ticket or two as a saver using Buyer’s Remorse, who showed promise last year as a 2-year-old but was overmatched in a pair of stakes races after a good runner-up debut as a maiden at Del Mar. Freshened and working like her old self, the daughter of Liam’s Map will be right there should Fierce for Sul make any mistakes.
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RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Without Parole; 5-War of Will; 6-Blitzkrieg
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Shoemaker Mile-G1 is an absolute scramble. Use as many as your budget allows. We’ll go three deep and try to blow out the tote board using Blitzkrieg on top at 20-1 on the morning line. Back from Dubai where he performed admirably in top class sprint company, the son of War Front can be equally effective at this one mile trip, and in a field with a projected pace that could be moderate at best, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout. A former $25,000 claimer, he’s improved a ton for his new connections and is especially lethal on the type of firm ground that he will see today. Based on pure numbers he’s right there with the rest of them off his best effort. Without Parole lands the good rail and should inherit an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip. A closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile over this course and distance last fall, the C. Brown-trained son of Frankel is reunited with I. Ortiz. Jr. (who rode him in that race), and after a disappointing run in the Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 in January the English-bred horse has trained like he’s ready to snap back to top form. War of Will, last year’s Preakness winner, makes his four year old debut and could return to form in his first start since finishing unplaced in the BC Classic in November. He’s trained like he’s fit and ready and picks up F. Prat, and while he must prove himself against older horses (and grass) we’re willing to toss him in on the chance that he can somehow regain his past glory.
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RACE 10: Post 5:09 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Studly Perfection; 2-Camino de Estrella; 4-Fire When Ready
Forecast: Studly Perfection clearly is the controlling speed from his rail post in this main track miler for modest claiming older horses. First or second in four of six career starts over the local main track, the J. Wong-trained gelding picks up J. Rosario and hopefully will be allowed to utilize his best weapon, his early speed. He’s been guzzled and throttled down in recent races in the Bay Area but if turned loose today he could be capable of running his rivals into the ground. Fire When Ready returns to his claim level, and as a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and with sharp drills in recent weeks, the J. Mullins-trained son of Empire Way seems well-placed to regain his best form. We’re expecting the veteran gelding to be close up throughout and have every chance. Camino de Estrella is a sharp Turf Paradise invader with numbers that fit and a good recent series of workouts to have him on edge. First or second in 11 of 25 career starts, the Mineshaft gelding will be doing his best work from off the pace.
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RACE 11: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Etoile; 2-Ollie’s Candy; 3-Lady Prancealot
Forecast: Etoile arrives fit and ready from the Payson Park training center in South Florida for this year’s Gamely S.-G1 and if she duplicates her outstanding French form she will be hard to beat. The C. Brown-trained filly, away since last fall, was a Group-3 winner at Saint-Cloud last year and was fourth, beaten less than a length, in the French Oaks-G1, before tailing off against Europe’s best in two subsequent outings. She gets the rail, Lasix, and J. Rosario for a barn that has a spectacular record with these European imports. Ollie’s Candy lost a heartbreaker in the Apple Blossom H.-G1 at Oaklawn Park last month and today tries to duplicate that performance on grass and minus Rosario, who opts for Etoile. The daughter of Candy Road is winless in four starts on turf but she was an excellent second on turf in the nine furlong Del Mar Oaks-G1 as a 3-year-old. It’ll be interesting to see if new jockey D. Van Dyke employs the same front-running tactics that nearly stole the Apple Blossom. Lady Prancealot may be the most dangerous of the deep closers. She switches to Johnny V. and will be heard from late if the pace is fast or at least normal.
Mike McClure
NASCAR
The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at both Cup Series races at Darlington.
The projected top 10, according to the model (with odds from William Hill)
1. Kyle Busch (5-6)
2. Justin Allgaier (10-1)
3. Chase Briscoe (11-2)
4. Harrison Burton (10-1)
5. Noah Gragson (18-1)
6. Daniel Hemric (22-1)
7. Brandon Jones (11-1)
8. Austin Cindric (18-1)
9. Alex Labbe (part of the field at 40-1)
10. Ross Chastain (10-1)
The rest of the field, according to the model:
11 Jeremy Clements
12 Michael Annett
13 Brett Moffitt
14 Garrett Smithley
15 Austin Hill
16 Jesse Little
17 Myatt Snider
18 Riley Herbst
19 Justin Haley
20 Jeffrey Earnhardt
21 Josh Williams
22 Brandon Brown
23 Timmy Hill
24 Ryan Sieg
25 Tommy Joe Martins
26 Bayley Currey
27 Matt Mills
28 Joe Graf Jr
29 Vinnie Miller
30 Kody Vanderwal
31 Joe Nemechek
32 Mason Massey
33 Colby Howard
34 Jeff Green
35 Dillon Bassett
36 Chad Finchum
37 BJ McLeod
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