Wednesday 8/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Rob Vinciletti

Aug 12 '20, 6:40 PM in 5h
MLB | KC vs CIN
Play on: UNDER 10 -110

$$ Hump Day Featured Free Play $$
The MLB Comp Play is on the Under in the Kansas City at Cincy game at 6:40 eastern. This game will be a 3* regular play for us tonight as the game fits the solid 11-0 totals system below. What we want to do is play the under for home teams that won last night as a home favorite at -140 or more despite having 3 or more errors, vs an opponent like KC that lost by 1 run despite scoring 5+ run on 10+ hits. Miley starting for the Reds has gone under in 3 of 4 vs KC. Keller for KC Has pitched under in his last 4 road starts. In the series these two have gone under in 7 of the last 8. Look for the game to stay under tonight. For the MLB Comp Play. Go under KC and Cincy. Rob V- GC Sports

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Cole Faxon

Aug 12 '20, 7:05 PM in 6h
MLB | BAL vs PHI
Play on: OVER 9½ -115

FREE PLAY on Orioles/Phillies over 9½ -115

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Jimmy Boyd

Aug 12 '20, 7:30 PM in 6h
MLB | Rays vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox +147 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Red Sox +147

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Rocky Atkinson

Aug 12 '20, 9:00 PM in 8h
WNBA | Mercury vs Sky
Play on: Sky -4½ -104 at pinnacle

Rocketman Sports FREE WNBA play Wednesday 8-12-20
Phoenix vs Chicago (9:00 PM EST)
Play On: Chicago -4 1/2 -104
The Phoenix Mercury take on the Chicago Sky on Wednesday night in WNBA action. Both teams come in with identical 5-3 SU overall records this year. Chicago is 6-2 SU and ATS overall vs Phoenix the past 3 years. Phoenix is 2-5 ATS last 7 games as an underdog. Phoenix is 1-7 ATS last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record. Chicago is 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games after an ATS loss. Chicago is 18-7-1 ATS last 26 games after a SU loss. Chicago is 17-6-1 ATS last 24 games against a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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John Martin

Aug 12 '20, 9:05 PM in 8h
NBA | Clippers vs Nuggets
Play on: Nuggets +5 -111 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Denver Nuggets +5
The Clippers are going to be the 2nd or 3rd seed in the West no matter what. They almost have to be thinking dropping to 3rd to try and avoid the Mavericks in the 1st round. They would then either player the Jazz or Thunder, which is a much easier matchup than the Mavericks. They just lost 120-129 to the Nets as 9-point favorites last time out, so winning games right now is not a priority for them. The Nuggets continue to play well as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. I think there’s a good chance the wrong team is favored in this one and the Clippers don’t even show up, so getting 5 points is a nice value. Give me the Nuggets.

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Teddy Davis

Aug 12 '20, 9:05 PM in 8h
MLB | Mariners vs Rangers
Play on: Mariners +117 at pinnacle

Neither pitcher is great here and neither team is as well. They have split the first two games so no reason not to look at the dog here. The one thing about Walker is that so far he has went bad game, great game, bad game. I will take my chances that he bounces back again here from a poor start. Lyles hasn't done anything impressive so far with a 6.75 ERA. He has gave up 4 and 3 earned runs in his two starts. Mariners get the job done at a nice dog price

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Jack Jones

Aug 12 '20, 9:40 PM in 8h
MLB | Padres vs Dodgers
Play on: Padres +140 at Mirage

Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: San Diego Padres +140
The NL West is loaded with the Padres, Dodgers and Rockies all fighting for supremacy in the early going. The Padres have won three straight coming in, including the first two games of this series with Los Angeles.
I think we’re getting great value on the Padres again today with Zach Davies on the mound. He has consistently been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the past few seasons.
Davies is off to a 2-1 start with a 2.87 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in three starts for the Padres in 2020. He owns the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six career starts against them. He has allowed just one earned run in 19 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles for a minuscule 0.47 ERA.
Davies is a very profitable 20-14 (+14.5 Units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher in his career. Bet the Padres Wednesday.

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Totals Guru

Aug 12 '20, 10:30 PM in 9h
NHL | Canucks vs Blues
Play on: UNDER 5½ -130

Free Total Annihilator On Canucks vs Blues under 5½ -130

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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/12/20

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August 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade:
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The Wednesday opener is for hurdlers. We’ll pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Strike That

Forecast: This allowance optional claimer at seven furlongs drew just five entrants, so let’s take a stand and single the second choice on the morning line, Strike That (5/2). Drawn comfortably outside in a race that projects to produce very soft early fractions, the lightly-raced 4-year-old can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the break and the race flow, and with a good recent outing over the track in his second off of a layoff for a barn that has superior stats with this angle (28%) he seems set for a breakthrough performance. Slightly slower on pure numbers than the 6/5 morning line favoriteTiz He the One, the R. Diodoro-trained gelding nevertheless has more room for improvement and offers better wagering value as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Fluent in Sarcasm; 7-Money in the Bank

Forecast: Maryland shipper Money in the Bank seems set for a big effort in this modest state-bred maiden $40,000 claiming turf sprint after finishing a solid runner-up in a similar affair at Belmont Park in mid-June and showing three nice breezes since then to have him ready for a forward move in his second start off a layoff. The Central Banker gelding fits nicely in the speed figure department and projects to enjoy a good pace-stalking journey in a race that should develop with a modest early splits. Fluent in Sarcasm may be the quickest of the quick and if he can shake loose early the Kantharos gelding could get brave. The M. Maker-trained 3-year-old is a tad slower on pure numbers than ‘Bank but given the expected race flow seems the one to fear most. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Friend of Liberty; 6-Tied Up; 7-Radiantrithym

Forecast: Trainer L. Rice holds the aces here with two uncoupled main players in this $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, topped by Radiantrithym, the even money morning line favorite. She was haltered for $20,000 last month but today, in her first start for her new connections, drops considerably in class in what can’t be taken as a sign of confidence. That said, the veteran mare, first or second in 22 of 58 career starts though beaten as the choice in two of her last three starts, should enjoy a soft trip outside and is more than good enough to dominate at this level if she has at least one good one left. The “other” Rice entrant, Friend of Liberty, easily won at this level two runs back in March and then was waiver protected when fourth in a $16,000 affair last time out while finishing more than five lengths behind Radiantrithym. The Dominus mare should fire her best shot today but will need the favorite to run below her best. Tied Up is worth considering as a back-up on your rolling exotic ticket. A $10,000 claim by a barn that hits at 24% with this angle, she has form at Finger Lakes that looks decent and also shows a few back speed figures that chart well with these, so at 6-1 on the morning line she may offer a bit of value at or near that price.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1a-Freedom Force; 6-Union Colonel

Forecast: Union Colonel shows up in a high-priced maiden claimer for the first time and should thoroughly enjoy the softer assignment and the stretch-out in trip. The M. Casse-trained colt had a speed sharpener when prominent for a half before fading in a quick straight maiden turf dash here last month (his first outing since February), and as a son of Colonel John should enjoy the two-turn trip. The barn has strong stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line and with regular jockey T. Gaffalione staying aboard he deserves the edge on top. Freedom Force may employ gate-to-wire tactics in his first start for a tag, his first start since early June,, and in his first since arriving from Gulfstream Park. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. Ortiz takes the call, so we’ll include this M. Maker-trained colt in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Bustin Scones; 6-Kinky Sox

Forecast: With the 4/5 morning line favorite Eloquent Speaker an overnight scratch, this first-level state-bred allowance sprint for fillies and mares takes on a much different look. Kinky Sox just won a modest claimer over this track and distance last month, doing so from the rail with a stalking trip and a speed figure that makes her a strong fit right back despite the raise in class. Comfortably drawn outside, the lightly-raced 6-year-old mare should have clear sailing just off what projects to be a modest pace and then have her chance to seal the deal when it matters. Bustin Scones may be the most dangerous of the closing types, though this low percentage barn doesn’t inspire confidence. We’ll include her on a ticket or two as a back-up in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Tackle; 11-Microsecond; 12-Sandro the Great

Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a maiden special weight miler over the inner grass course for New York-bred older horses. The best of the known element may be Sandro the Great, a lightly-raced colt from the powerful trainer/jockey team of C. Clement and J. Rosario but stuck way outside in the 12-hole and thus susceptible to a wide, ground-losing journey. Two runs back in a grass affair at Belmont Park the son of Empire Maker earned a “buried” speed figure that charts very well against this group, so if he can manage to negotiate a decent trip he should be right there. Microsecond, also victimized by a poor draw (he’s in the 11-hole) tries grass for the first time, though there’s no guarantee based on his pedigree that he’s any kind of cinch to move up on the sod. The T. Pletcher-trained gelding should be forwardly placed throughout, and having finished in the frame in all three career starts certainly has a right to be considered a contender. Tackle is a first-timer from the W. Mott barn, and while he’s certainly bred to run long (Flatter) his female family doesn’t have a whole lot of turf in it. A recent bullet half mile breeze in :47 3/5 (fastest of 65) certainly is encouraging so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including in your rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Lil Commissioner; 7-Candy Tycoon

Forecast: Lil Commissioner was scratched last weekend in deference to this first-level allowance affair in a sign of confidence, and the R. Atras-trained gelding seems well-placed to extend his winning streak to three. After earning a career-top speed figure when crushing a $20,000 claiming field in late June at Belmont Park, the son of Field Commission switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and should settle into a stalking position in this nine furlong main track affair and then have his chance to kick home when it counts. Candy Tycoon stumbled at the start in the Peter Pan S.-G3 and was always far back in a race that we’ll ignore; today the son of Twirling Candy has a strong look in this easier spot and earned a speed figure two runs back at Oaklawn Park that charts very well against this group. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Lil Commissioner.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Thoughtfully; 5-Lucifers Lair

Forecast: Lucifers Lair was a very pleasing debut winner last month and should go even better today with the extra furlong to work with. The daughter of Quality has the look of a high class prospect, and although her winning speed figure wasn’t particularly impressive she gave the impression of having much in reserve and being capable of stepping up as the situation requires. Thoughtfully won by herself at Churchill Downs in her debut in mid-June and returns for the high-percentage team of S. Asmussen/R. Santana, Jr. with a sharp, healthy work tab that includes a bullet five furlong breeze (1:00 4/5, fastest of 14) nine days ago to have her right on edge. The daughter of Tapit from the dam of Belmont Futurity S.-G2 winner Annual Report is another that should have no difficulty with today’s added distance. We’ll give Lucifers Lair a slight edge on top due to her win being accomplished at Saratoga but both must be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Deeply Analytical; 8-Gringotts; 10-Love Me Tomorrow

Forecast: We have this maiden claiming extended sprint for state-bred fillies and mares down to three major contenders. Gringotts didn’t get the best of runs when a non-threatening sixth in a similar event here last month but with J. Rosario riding her back the daughter of Central Banker certainly can improve with a trouble-free journey. Hopefully, she can find herself somewhere in the second flight and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Deeply Analytical was a $270,000 OBS March sale purchase last year but after flashing speed and then fading in her debut as a 2-year-old, she was sent home. The daughter of Majestic City returns in a modest seller, not exactly a ringing endorsement by connections who are willing to toss her into the scrap heap in just her second career outing. Nonetheless, she’s a contender by default. Love Me Tomorrow is nicely-drawn outside and seems certain to fold over into a good pace-pressing/stalking trip. If she can shake loose without undue pressure the daughter of Mineshaft may be capable of leading for a long time in a race in which the closers look highly suspect.
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Cappers Access

MLB (Wed) Diamondbacks
NHL (Wed) Avalanche
NHL (Wed) Blues
NBA (Wed) Raptors

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Dwayne Bryant

Event: (909) Chicago Cubs at (910) Cleveland Indians
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 12, 2020 6PM EDT
Play: Total Under 7.5 (+100)

BET SIZE --> 1% of bankroll

LIST Hendricks & Carrasco

The Indians managed one run in last night's series opener, which fits with how poorly they've produced at the plate this season. Cleveland owns a 69 wRC+ (31% below league average) against righties this season. In 42 combined plate appearances, Indians hitters own just a .628 OPS and .274 wOBA against Kyle Hendricks.

The Cubs have had limited experience against Carlos Carrasco. In 16 career plate appearances against Carrasco, the Chicago hitters own a weak .154 average, .404 OPS, and .197 wOBA.

The Indians bullpen is among the league's best, and Chicago's pen has been trending in the right direction over the last week.

PLAY UNDER.

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Ralph Michaels

Event: (909) Chicago Cubs at (910) Cleveland Indians
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 12, 2020 6PM EDT
Play: Cleveland Indians -125

FUN PARLAY - Indians w/ Carasco & OVER 7.5
Indians 3-15 O/U this year but with Cookie at Home they are 2-0 Over. Tribe always seems to hit for some P and never hit for others

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Teddy Covers

Event: (913) Kansas City Royals at (914) Cincinnati Reds
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 12, 2020 6PM EDT
Play: Cincinnati Reds -115

3% Take Cincinnati (#914)

The Royals fall into a negative subset today for a team in a near pick ‘em price range. KC trailed by two or more runs after seven innings last night, came back and tied the game, then lost in extra innings. Teams in that particular role are just 17-34 in their next game since 2014 – it’s a tough loss to bounce back from. The betting markets are no fan of Wade Miley either, but Miley is healthy for the first time this season, and his track record against KC is ‘bet-on’. Meanwhile Brad Keller appears like a bad fit for hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, bad news with the Reds underachieving lineup showing real signs of life, pounding out 21 runs in their last four games.Take the Reds.

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Steve Merril

Event: (925) Tampa Bay Rays at (926) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 12, 2020 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 9.0 (-120)

-Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell projects to give up 2.9 runs with a 4.82 ERA and 1.48 WHIP

-Boston’s Zack Godley projects to allow 3.2 earned runs with a 6.23 ERA and 1.76 WHIP

-weather in Boston tonight is hot and very sticky with a high dewpoint; aids with runs

Play OVER the total.

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (767) Los Angeles Clippers at (768) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: August 12, 2020 9PM EDT
Play: Total Over 229.0 (-110)