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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Stakes Analysis
September 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
There is a big night of racing on tap at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The headliners include the Goodtimes Final, the Maple Leaf Trot and the Canadian Pacing Derby. Those three stakes will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 3-Goodtimes-Final-Purse $215,000
5-Ready For Moni (3/5)-This colt deserves the 3/5 morning line favoritism as only loss came to Ramona Hill in the Hambo Final. It would be a huge surprise if this Takter trainee doesn't take another picture tonight. Trixton set the Canadian track record in 2014 with a 151.3 mile in the Goodtimes and that mark could be in jeopardy tonight.
3-Play Trix On Me (5-1)-Did come 2nd to the chalk last week and gets the services of McClure this evening. Toscano trainee was off 3 weeks before last start. Has been in the money in 12 of 14 and recorded 7 wins.
4-HP Royal Theo (9/2)-Raced well from the 9-hole to win his elimination easily and now should be in the hunt to cash a 2nd place check. Roy steers for the Baillargen barn who has been sending them out ready to win all year.
$10 Exacta 5-3-Total Bet=$10
Race 5-Maple Leaf Trot-Purse $560,000
9-Gimpanzee (5/2)-The temptation is to look to beat the Breeders Crown Champ without his regular connections able to cross the border and from this post but that's not my choice. My guess is McNair won't try to win the race in opening 1/4 and will look to come off cover and sweep to the top later on. That was basically the script last October in the BC Final and will look for similar with the same outcome.
10-Manchego (3-1)-Has 3 wins in 8 starts here and although last couple haven't been as sharp Roy should put this mare in play this week. Starts in the 2nd tier but could line up behind #3 Guardian Angel As who will probably blast out, so the trip may not be too bad.
9-Atlanta (9/2)-This multi-million dollar winner has tailed off in last 2 and made a rare break in the Armbro Flight. Does good work at Wbsb and it wouldn't be a shock if she finished higher so best to not overlook. Does have 3 wins in 10 starts at Mohawk and has only missed the board once.
$10 to Win on 9-Total Bet=$10
Race 9-Canadian Pacing Derby-Purse $540,000
7-Century Farroh (4-1)-Comes into the Derby razor sharp and benefited from a patient drive by Dave Miller to win the Dan Patch. Loses Miller but gets the services of the meets leading driver Sylvain Filion. Should be able to find live cover and roll late. The pace should be quick and this 4-year-old can dial up one big brush.
4-Sintra (9/2)-Jamieson should provide a good steer for this veteran as both have connected for some big wins here and 3 years ago combined for a Derby victory. Winner of 13 of 24 starts at Wbsb is in fine form and is a live gimmick play.
3-Backstreet Shadow (3-1)-Gingras takes over for Tetrick on this Burke trainee who has been in the money in 12 of 13 here with 7 wins. This is a competitive, versatile 5-year-old who has the gate speed to get a close-up seat and could trip out.
$10 Exacta Key 7/3,4
$5 Exacta 3,4/7
Total Bet=$30
Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 9/05/20
September 5, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Churchill Downs
Saturday, September 5, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.
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Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Saturday, September 5, 2020
Churchill Downs 1st race – Post Time: 11:00 ET
4 -Midnight Sands (4-1)
After ripping apart good competition in Dubai when reeling off five straight impressive wins, the son of Speightstown makes his U.S. debut as a first-time Lasix user in this extended allowance sprint that should be well within his capabilities. A series of sharp workouts at Ellis Park should have him fit and ready for good trainer B. Walsh (strong stats with overseas shippers), and with the barn’s “go to” rider T. Gaffalione taking the call we’re expecting this talented and blossoming colt to pick up where he left off last winter. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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Churchill Downs 2nd race – Post Time: 11:30 ET
5 – Idol (5-1)
Expensive ($375,000) Curlin colt ships in from Southern California to make his debut on the big stage and this highly-promising 3-year-old is here to win. The R. Baltas-trained sophomore had been working lights out over the deepish Del Mar main track before arriving in Kentucky, where he got a feel of the track with a five furlong drill in :59 4/5 (fourth fastest of 36) last week to have him right on edge. At 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth a gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Churchill Downs 13th race – Post Time: 5:50 ET
8 – Sacred Life (6-1)
Left his previous form behind with a career top performance when winning the Oceanport S. at Monmouth Park last month while producing an electric turn of foot from furlong pole to the wire. The C. Brown-trained import clearly is tackling a tougher bunch today in this year’s edition of the Turf Classic-G1 but the genuine and consistent French-bred horse (first or second in 12 of 15 career starts) could easily be up to the task while offering excellent wagering value at 6-1 on the morning line.
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Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:
RACE 1: Post 11:45 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Kaz’s Beach; 3-Tackle
Forecast: Tackle made good headway into slow fractions when a very promising runner-up in his debut last month, and with any kind of forward move today the W. Mott-trained colt will earn his diploma in this middle distance grass affair for older maidens. Two easy breezes since raced will have him on edge. Kaz’s Beach may be worth including on your ticket as well. Runner-up in his debut at Penn National while more than eight lengths clear of the rest in a race that produced a good speed figure, the son of Karakontie actually has just as much right to improve as our top pick and from the rail projects to earn a good ground-saving trip.
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RACE 2: Post 12:18 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Win With Pride/1a-Wegotoldyougotsold
Forecast: Assuming they both enter the starting gate, the M. Repole entry could run one-two in this $16,000 sprint for older horses, but at an extremely short price. Win With Pride drops to his lowest level ever while obviously being culled from the stable but a repeat of his race before last at Gulfstream Park will bury this field. Entry-mate Wegotoldyougotsold, claimed for $32,000 in March and returning for half that amount today, shows the kind of pattern that is best avoided, but if the veteran gelding has one good one left he’ll be hard to beat. You can use the entry as a no-value rolling exotics single or better yet just pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 12:53 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Fractorzation; 6-Magnolia’s Lady; 7-Silky Blue
Forecast: This state-bred turf sprint is fairly contentious and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Each of the three listed above has credentials to win and are “must uses” on your ticket. Magnolia’s Lady has improved in each of her three starts and figures to continue her upward mobility after graduating in good style over this course and distance in late July. The daughter of Freud has an effective stalking style, speed figures that fit, and rates a slight edge on top. Silky Blue is right there on numbers and has never been worse than second in three career starts. She’s turning back from a route and projects to be outrun early but very dangerous late. Fractorzation has only one way to go – on the lead – and actually defeated our top pick when graduating gate-to-wire at Belmont Park in early July. The layoff is a bit troubling but she’s competitive on numbers and like the others is eligible to improve with experience and maturity.
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RACE 4: Post 1:26 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Civil Union; 4-My Sister Nat
Forecast: Civil Union appears to have found her niche as a mini-marathoner and at this 11-furlong trip the lightly-raced mare, with rising speed figures in each of her six career starts, looks quite capable of winning this year’s renewal of the Glens Falls S.-G2. Her victory at 12 furlongs in the listed River Memories S. at Churchill Downs in July was excellent, and although this is a tougher assignment she seems capable of handling the task. My Sister Nat was visually quite pleasing when winning the Waya S.-G3 with a career top speed figure last month and not much more will be needed for a repeat score. It may be significant that J. Ortiz, who rode them both, opts for ‘Nat over ‘Union. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Civil Union.
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RACE 5: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Caddo River; 5-Olympiad; 6-Greatest Honour
Forecast: Olympiad finished a distant third in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut here last month and seems certain to use that outing as a springboard for a significant forward move in this seven furlong maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. The son of Speightstown finished willingly without being knocked about while giving indication that today’s extra furlong will suit him just fine. Caddo River has moved like a nice sort in morning breezes and is a dangerous first-timer from the B. Cox barn. The son of Hard Spun hasn’t really been asked for much in his works leading up to this race, but he should have enough of a foundation to perform well enough to make his presence felt. Greatest Honour is a first-timer by Tapit with a decent series of works on his resume. He’s probably not totally cranked up by Shug but seems to have some promise and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 6: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Pop a Choc; 5-Timely Tradition; 7-Say Moi
Forecast: Say Moi has the route-to-sprint angle that we like so much and this turn back to seven furlongs – which may prove to be her favorite trip – can propel this daughter of Union Rags back into the winner’s circle in a strong first-level allowance main track sprint for fillies and mares. She should be able to secure an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal just as she did in her maiden win at Churchill Downs last spring. On pure numbers she’s plenty fast enough to win. Pop a Choc, third as the favorite in a similar affair last month, has plenty of room to improve and may find herself as the controlling speed. She was forced into some wicked fractions last time out and understandably weakened late to be third, but this pace flow seems likely to be more comfortable. Timely Tradition is a tough-as-nails mare with 10 career victories and speed figures that are solid for this level. She’s won at Saratoga in the past and projects to be comfortably placed in a pace-pressing position and then have every chance from there.
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RACE 7: Post 3:11 ET. Grade: B+-
Use: 1-Restored Order; 9-Hidden Enemy
Forecast: Hidden Enemy ran fairly well in his debut when finishing a close fourth here last month and seems certain to be fitter, sharper and more serious in this maiden two-turn grass affair for juveniles. The son of Galileo has the makings of a good colt, especially as the distances increase, and the S. Asmussen barn hits at a strong 23% with second-timers. The switch to J. Rosario is another plus. Restored Order is the one to fear most. With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, the son of Frosted lands the rail and almost certainly will find himself as the controlling speed. I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard the $420,000 OBS March sale purchase who has a pedigree that suggests he’ll easily handle the added distance.
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RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Good OId Boy
Forecast: Good Old Boy has plenty in his favor in this state-bred entry-level allowance two-turner on grass. The veteran gelding returned off a year layoff to register a smart victory in a $25,000 claimer over the local lawn last month and in a sign of confidence is protected today after earning a career top speed figure in that clever win. Drawn nicely inside and likely to enjoy the same type of stalking trip that produced his recent victory, the M. Maker-trained son of Freud will offer value at or near his morning line of 4-1. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Happy Saver; 6-Dr Post
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Jim Dandy S.-G2 serves as a Preakness prep and has a few very nice prospects in the field. Happy Saver is undefeated in two starts and truly gets tested today. After winning his debut sprinting at Belmont Park with a powerful figure, the son of Super Saver stretched out over this track and distance to win a first-level allowance event vs. older horses with stakes quality speed figure, one that makes him a major player despite the raise into graded stakes company. He’ll more than likely settle into a ground-saving, stalking position and then do his best work from the quarter pole home. Mystic Guide performed like he desperately needed blinkers when third in the Peter Pan S.-G3 here in mid-July and we anticipate a career top effort today with the addition of the hood. He’s a bit slower on speed figures than our top pick but the son of Ghostzapper hasn’t come close to showing his best stuff just yet. We’ll sink or swim using just these two in our rolling exotics; if you feel the need to add Dr Post (the 7/5 morning line favorite) go right ahead.
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RACE 10: Post 4:57 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Kimari; 5-Frank’s Rockette
Forecast: The Prioress S.-G2 is a salty sprint for sophomore fillies topped by Frank’s Rockette, a thoroughly genuine and consistent sprinting sophomore who has been first or second in all eight of her career outings, seven of them stakes. Winner of the Victory Ride S.-G3 at Belmont Park in early July, she returns off a two month respite with a series of slow and easy local drills that we’re going to assume will have her fit and ready. The projected pace flow looks favorable so the the W. Mott-trained daughter of Into Mischief surely will be on or near the lead throughout. Kimari, back from Royal Ascot where she finished an admirable second (of 16) in the Commonwealth Cup-G1, can handle any surface but had the misfortunate of drawing the rail and may encounter severe traffic along the way due to her lack of gate quickness. Nonetheless, she’s a high-quality type and needs to be included somewhere on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 11: Post 5:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Tacitus
Forecast: Tacitus earned a confidence building win when blasting his rivals by more than eight lengths in the Suburban S.-G2 at Belmont Park in early July and has been kept on edge with a healthy series of drills in the interim that should have him primed and ready for a similar run in this year’s edition of the Woodward S.-G1. Even money on the morning line and looking every bit of it on paper, the son of Tapit displayed an affection for the Saratoga main track last year when second in both the Jim Dandy S.-G2 and Travers S.-G1 at Saratoga, races that quite frankly were tougher than the one he’s in today. The W. Mott-trained colt is a logical short priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 12: Post 6:08 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Our Country; 8-Life On Top; 9-Traffic Pattern
Forecast: We’ll spread the nightcap, a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer for older horses over a distance on ground on grass. Life On Top adds blinkers for the first time and certainly should improve while showing up in a seller for the first time. The Carpe Diem gelding has speed figures that make him a legitimate fit in this softer affair and looks to be the most dangerous of the deep closers. Traffic Pattern earned a number when breaking his maiden at first asking two runs back that makes him a fit in this league. The son of Temple City was out of his element in a first-level allowance race last time out but this class drop while being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. makes him a “must use.” Our Country is another dropping into a claimer for the first time and in this league the Constitution gelding may be able to get back on track. Drawn nicely inside, the G. Weaver-trained 3-year-old has earned solid speed figures, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in as well.
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Saratoga - Race #3
Saratoga - Race #9
Picks Notes #7 Silky Blue Lightly raced runner for turf ace Duarte was a strong 2nd while trying winners last time at two turns, drew a nice outside attack post for the cutback, and has a world of upside off just three lifetime starts; look out. #6 Magnolia's Lady Sharp MSW winner over the course/distance will be in front of the pick, and she too has run just twice, but the price will be underlaid, and trying winners can be a rude awakening for a sharp MSW winner; second-best. Fractorzation Logical contender has speed and is on the improve, and enters off nice spacing from the Belmont MSW wire job, but she won't get a breather early, which might leave her wanting late; limiting her use to underneath only. Race Summary That 4-1 ML on the pick seems very fair in what is a deep and competitive race, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win in the $10 range would add plenty of value to both sequences, as this is a spot where the betting public might be spreading deep to ensure they have the winner.
Saratoga - Race #11
Picks Notes #7 Mystic Guide Stretch runner has caught unfortunate circumstances of late, as he was on a speedy highway two-back then was too far back over the track/distance in the G3 last time, but the blinkers on on for a bit more speed, and the talent is there, so that could put him over the top; breakthrough time. #1 Happy Saver The chalk was an easy winner last time, though it was an odd run, in that he was spinning his wheels off the far turn then seemingly re-broke and won for fun late, in fast time too, but the waters are a lot deeper here, and he needs to show he can step up; plenty scary, but no lock either. #6 Dr Post Classy sort is the stablemate to the pick but they are polar opposites, in that this one wants to come from well out of it, and it didn't work in the G1 Haskell when 3rd last time, and it's not a style that works here (as the 7), so spotting ground to the top-2 won't help him late; runs out of room. Race Summary The price will be right on the 7, and the blinkers should have him in the race a lot sooner too, and that might be all he needs to finally deliver on all the promise he's shown up to now, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this could be the coming-out party, and a bridge to a lot bigger assignments down the road.
Picks Notes #5 Spinoff Class riser has come up wanting against better competition during his career, but this isn't your dad's G1, and he's 3-2-0-1 over the track, and, most important than anything, will get first run on the heavy chalk, and be a much better price too; call to post the mild surprise. #2 Tacitus Aforementioned heavy chalk has come up short at false odds more often than not, though he did blast to an easy G2 win at this distance last time at Bel, though he beat nothing, and the race wasn't that fast either, so he's a big underlay here, with no real edge; trying to beat. #6 Prioritize Price player was up in time going shorter against much lesser here earlier in the meet, but the figure he ran puts in the picture here, and Bond is turning back the clock and having a banner meet, so if you're looking for value, this might be you guy; eligible to outrun his odds. Race Summary You won't get rich on the 5, but they will bury the 2, so that 3-1 ML might hold, and that doesn't look all that bad in the body of this field, so play him to win and place, though his real value comes in the late Pk5/Pk4, as the budget players will be singling the chalk, which means a win by the pick would play a lot longer than his off odds might indicate.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #1
Laurel Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #2 Gale Has some upside in this second trip to post, and I'd be surprised to see her offer all of the 3/1 ML price. I'm in if she does. #7 Beckon Probably the slight one to beat, but has also had 10 chances, so she's short on excuses at this point in time. #3 Inside the Box Finisher is probably along too late to threaten for top honors with these, but she's useful in the underneath spots as she passes tired ones. Race Summary Gale should be tough here after finishing just behind Beckon when they met last out, but Beckon was DQ'ed that day and has far less upside than does Gale.
Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes #3 Cordmaker Should appreciate the move back around two turns where he has done some really good work over the last year or so, and he'd be plenty playable at something like the 5/1 ML price. #6 Harpers First Ride Tough to argue with most of the recent form, and he can probably work out a midpack kind of trip with these. #1 Grumps Little Tots Steps up off the Saffie claim, and he has plenty of back running lines that would be competitive with these. Not sure I want him as the chalk. Race Summary Cordmaker is plenty appealing while getting some added ground to work with this time around, and his two-turn form is really just as good as the rest in here.
Picks Notes #8 Whereshetoldmetogo Has been in with some pretty good groups, and the barn change isn't a huge deal for me as it's not like this guy has only ever run well out of the Cox barn. #5 Laki Reliable forward player might be just a little bit better with a 7f trip, but the form is too tough right now to overlook. #2 Taco Supream He has landed some minor stakes spots before, and he's a pretty consistent finishing type that might be able to make some noise underneath. Race Summary Whereshetoldmetogo has run very well locally in the past and might be able to wake up here with a group that is well within reach for a score.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 TYGA HANOVER Determined effort as beaten fave at half-mile oval. #7 WESTSLUCKY TERROR Had live cover on final turn, loomed boldly in mid-stretch, hung late. #4 YACHT SEELSTER Takes needed class drop but will be underlay with Gingras in bike. Race Summary Tyga Hanover, out and moving in the second quarter, dueled through the turn and dug in late to join a blanket finish. He gets back on Lasix and should get the jump on his main rivals. Play 6-4 and 6-7 exactas.
Northfield Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #8 BETTOR B GOING Better than latest appears, taken to upset in field of proven winners. #5 WESTERN JOE Well-traveled, hard hitter has 40 top 2 finishes in 85 starts. #7 THE DEVILS OWN N Mild rally into rapid pace in preferred company, won prior pair. Race Summary Bettor B Going, far back on the backstretch in crowded field, advanced while 4-deep in the outer flow, swung wide in the lane and finished willingly. He draws another bad post but is worth a flyer at double-digit odds. Play a 5-7-8 exacta box.
Picks Notes #1 UBANJI Won on class rise to this level, projects similar-type trip. #7 J A T O Heavily bet in open company off long layoff, nice price if it sticks. #6 FLY JESSE FLY Chased top one to no avail, re-united with Wrenn. Race Summary Ubanji sat pocketed off a fast pace and surged past the favorite in a slow final quarter. The 12-year-old should be close-up throughout in his bid for three in a row. Play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 Sassy But Smart Makes her first start since February, when he was fourth in the G3 Palm Beach. Has the speed to stay within reach of Monforte. #1 Monforte Set the pace and was caught late in the Not Surprising Stakes and is very strong on the front end. He'll be the target. #6 American Phenom Closed in both of his races and gets two turns for the first time; could be moving fastest of all at the end. Race Summary Sassy But Smart came fairly close in a graded stakes race and has the class and talent to be ready for a big effort off the six-month-plus layoff.
Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes #1 Mo of the West Steps up to stakes company after winner two straight going long on the turf. Getting better and lands in a spot in which she should be highly competitive. #7 Blue Mistress Set the pace and lost by a nose in the Martha Washington Stakes at GP; has good route speed and will attempt shake loose. #4 Onyx Will get a good pace in front of here and she has the stakes experience to be a factor. Look for her late in the game. Race Summary Mo of the West has taken to turf racing and has dug in for wins in her last two. Lands in a good spot for her stakes debut.
Picks Notes #3 With Verve Takes on older rivals after running a solid second in the Carry Back. Cuts back to six furlongs and should be a force late. #4 Cool Arrow Was an easy winner in his last two and was a good claim three races back for the Pompay barn; classy and capable here. #5 Double Crown Beat the top choice in the Carry Back and has taken three of four starts. Has finished well and will be a late threat. Race Summary With Verve was getting to Double Crown at the end of the Carry Back and can be close throughout this one.
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty 9/5/20 - WNBA
The New York Liberty meet up with the red hot Phoenix Mercury having won their last five games, the most recent a dominating 105-81 win over the Indiana Fever improving their record on the year to 11-7. The Liberty are one of the worst teams in the WNBA this season and fell to an abysmal 2-15, falling 62-56 to the Atlanta Dream.
The Mercury are one of the best offenses in the WNBA, coming in averaging 87.9 points per game ranking second in scoring offense. The Mercury are led in scoring by four players averaging double digits, led by Diana Taurasi who averages 19.7 points per game while adding a team-high 5 assists per game. Center Brittney Griner adds 17.7 points per game while adding a team-high 7.5 rebounds per game.
The Liberty comes in averaging just 72.5 points per game to rank last in the WNBA in scoring offense. Without first-round pick Sabrina Ionescu, the Liberty are led by Layshia Clarendon and Kia Nurse who are both averaging 11.7 points per game while Clarendon leads the team in assists with 3.9 per game. Nurse is shooting an efficient 46.6% from the field which leads all Liberty starters.
The Liberty are allowing 86.3 points per game, the 9th ranked scoring defense in the WNBA this season and are allowing opponents to shoot 44.7% from the field. The Liberty defense held the Dream to just 62 points their last time out but mustered just 56 points. Phoenix is allowing 84.5 points per game to rank 5th in the WNBA in scoring defense.
Recent Betting Trends
The Liberty are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.
The Mercury have won five straight games, covering the spread in four of five.
New York totals' have gone under in four of their last five.
Phoenix totals' have gone over in three of their last five.
Free WNBA Pick: Phoenix Mercury -9
The Liberty have shown no signs of life on the offensive end since Sabrina Ionescu’s ankle injury and there is no reason to think that changes in this game. The Mercury have won five straight games and appear to be gaining momentum headed into the playoffs. The balanced scoring attack of the Mercury is just too much for the Liberty and the Mercury blow out the struggling NY Liberty. Final Score Prediction, Mercury win and cover 90-67.
Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream 9/5/20 - WNBA
The Las Vegas Aces look for a second consecutive victory on Saturday when playing the Atlanta Dream. Las Vegas and improved to 13-4 following a 93-78 victory over the Connecticut Sun. A'ja Wilson was the leading scorer for Las Vegas in the victory with 24 points hitting 10 of her 13 field goal attempts and each of her four free throw attempts. The Aces are in second place in the Western Conference standings one game behind the first-place Seattle Storm.
A’ja Wilson is leading Las Vegas in scoring and rebounding with averages of 20.3 points and 8.5 rebounds. Wilson is shooting 47.9% from the field and 80.5% from the free-throw line. Danielle Robinson is leading Las Vegas in assists with an average of 3.4 per game. Las Vegas has five players averaging double figures in scoring.
Atlanta looks for its third consecutive victory on Saturday when playing Las Vegas. The Dream improved to 5-13 following a 62-56 victory over the New York Liberty on Thursday. In the defensive struggle, Courtney Williams was the leading scorer for Atlanta with 15 points and pulled down a team-high 13 rebounds. With the victory, Atlanta swept the season series with the Liberty.
Chennedy Carter is leading Atlanta in scoring with an average of 16.3 points per game, while Betnijah Laney is close behind with an average of 16.2 points per game and is leading the Dream in assists with an average of 4.3 per game. Monique Billings is the leading rebounder for Atlanta with an average of 8.8 per game. Atlanta has four players averaging double-figures in scoring.
Recent Betting Trends
Las Vegas is 12-2 SU in its last 14
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Aces last 8
Atlanta is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7
The UNDER has cashed in 8 of the Dream’s last 11
Free WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4
Las Vegas is battling for the top seed in the Western Conference and trails the first place Seattle Storm by only one game. The Aces have won 12 of their last 14 straight up. In the first meeting of the season between these two, Las Vegas easily routed the Dream 100-70 to win and cover and those trends will continue in this second match up on Saturday. Final Score Prediction, Las Vegas Aces win and cover ATS 93-74.
Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun 9/5/20 - WNBA
The Sun are coming into the game after losing their last game. Granted, the game was a loss to the Aces it was still a big loss. The Sun lost the game by a score of 93-78. With the loss the Sun dropped to a 8-10 record overall on the year.
In the loss the Sun ended up shooting only at a clip of 41% on the year. The Sun did shoot 20% on the year from the line. Now, Connecticut also had problems controlling the ball with 22 turnovers in the game, but the Sun did pull down the boards nicely with a clip of 41 rebounds in the game.
The Fever are coming into the game here after getting crushed by the Phoenix team in the last game. The Mercury ended up putting in 105 points and all the Fever could reply with was a measly 81 points, which was a 24 point loss. The Fever, with the loss, did drop to a 5-13 record on the year.
In the losing effort for Indiana they only shot at a clip of 41.8% from the field. Behind the line the Fever did better shooting at 41.2% on the day. The Indiana team only turned the ball over 18 times, but when it came to cleaning up the missed shots the Fever managed to get 35 boards.
Free WNBA Pick: Indiana Fever -3
Heading to the game the Sun and Fever have both recently struggled. The difference is the Sun did not show up nearly as good in their last game. The Fever for their part were crushed, but shot better from the field and did not turn the ball over as much. Look for the Fever to rely on their better shooting in this game to help them in locking down the win. Final Score Prediction, Indiana Fever win 85-76.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids 9/5/20 - MLS
The San Jose Earthquakes look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss when hosting the Colorado Rapids on Saturday. San Jose is in 11th place in the Western Conference at 2-2-3 on 8 points. The Earthquakes were defeated by LAFC on Wednesday 5-1. Danny Hoesen scored San Jose's only goal of the match but it was too little too late in the 92nd minute of the match after the Earthquakes already trailed 5-0.
San Jose has two wins and three losses in its last five matches in the MLS. Over that span, the Earthquakes have scored 11 goals, while the backline and goalkeeper have allowed 14. Four players - Andres Rios, Valeri Qazaishvili, Chris Wondolowski and Oswaldo Alanis have each scored two goals for the Earthquakes.
Colorado looks to improve from a 1-1 straw in his last outing when visiting San Jose on Saturday. The Rapids are in10th place in the Western Conference at 2-2-3 on 8 points and are tied on points with San Jose but own the tiebreaker on goal difference. Colorado took a 1-0 lead in its last match against Sporting Kansas City following a goal by Cole Bassett in the 57th minute, but Sporting KC equalized in the 67th minute and the match ended in a draw.
Colorado has two draws and three losses in it's last five matches played. Over that period, the Rapids have scored six goals, while the backline and goalkeeper have allowed 12. The leading goal scorer for Colorado is Jonathan Lewis with three, while Keegan Rosenberry, Jack Price and Nicolas Benezet each have two assists to lead Colorado.
Free Soccer Pick: Colorado Rapids +215
Over the last five fixtures head-to-head between the two MLS clubs, San Jose has two wins, Colorado has two wins and one match ended in a draw. In the most recent head-to-head matchup on August 10th, Colorado defeated San Jose 2-1 at home. San Jose has a very leaky backline and Colorado will take advantage of that on the road and pull out a victory on Saturday. Final Score Prediction, Colorado Rapids win 3-2
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Toronto FC 9/5/20 - MLS
The Vancouver Whitecaps will have their hands full on Saturday when they host Toronto FC. Vancouver is in last place in the Western Conference at 2-0-6 on 4 points following a 2-0 loss to the Montreal Impact in their most recent outing. Vancouver has lost each of its last three matches and has failed to score in each of its last four. Vancouver's last victory was a 2-0 decision over the Chicago Fire on July 23.
Vancouver has one win and four losses in it's last five fixtures played. Over that span, Vancouver has scored two goals, while its back line and goalkeeper have allowed six. The Whitecaps have been held scoreless in four of the last five matches played, while it's defense has held clean sheets in two of the last five. The leading scorer for Vancouver is Christian Dajome with two goals.
Toronto FC sits in second place in the Eastern Conference standings of the MLS at 5-3-1 on 18 points and is just two points adrift of first place Columbus. Toronto lost its most recent outing on Tuesday to Montreal 1-0, but prior to that Toronto FC had won three consecutive matches including a 1-0 victory at home over Vancouver in the most recent match between these two MLS rivals.
Toronto FC has three wins and two losses in it's last five fixtures played in the MLS. Over that period, Toronto FC has scored six goals, while its back line and goalkeeper have allowed four. Ayo Akinola is the leading goal scorer for Toronto with five, while Alejandro Pozuelo is the leader in assists with seven.
Free Soccer Pick: Toronto FC -192
Toronto FC has three victories, one draw and one loss in its last five matches head-to-head against Vancouver. In the most recent two fixtures against Vancouver, Toronto has two victories 3-0 on August 18th and 1-0 on August 21. Toronto FC has a +4 goal differential on the season, while Vancouver has a -9 goal differential. Although this match will be played in Vancouver, Toronto FC dominates once again with a clean-sheet victory. Final Score Prediction, Toronto FC wins 2-0
Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United FC 9/5/20 - MLS
The Orlando City SC hosts Atlanta United FC at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida on Saturday in a MLS fixture. Orlando City SC is third in the Eastern Conference standings at 4-3-2 on 15 points after earning one point on the road with a 1-1 draw against Nashville. Benji Michel scored Orlando's only goal of the game in the 17th minute, but the backline allowed an early second-half equalizer by Nashville.
Orlando CIty has two wins, one draw and two losses in its last five fixtures in MLS. Over that span, Orlando City has scored 10 goals, while it's back line and goalkeeper have allowed eight. The leading goal scorer for Orlando City is Chris Mueller with six and Mueller is tied with Mauricio Pereyra for the assists lead with three each.
Atlanta United sits in ninth place in the Eastern Conference of the MLS at 3-1-4 on 10 points. The Five Stripes played to a listless 0-0 draw at home against first year Inter Miami in their last outing. Atlanta United was defeated by this same Orlando City club 3-1 in it's match prior to a draw against inter Miami. The last victory for Atlanta was a 2-0 decision over Nashville SC.
Atlanta has one win, one draw and three losses in its last five MLS fixtures. Over that period, Atlanta has scored just three goals, while its back line and goalkeeper have allowed five. The Atlanta offense has been held scoreless in three of the last five matches played. Gonzalo Martinez, Ezequiel Barco and Emerson Hyndman lead Atlanta in scoring with two goals apiece.
Free Soccer Pick: Orlando City SC -105
In the last five matches head-to-head between these two MLS clubs, Orlando has won one and Atlanta has won four. However, in the most recent matchup between the two, Orlando City was a 3-1 winner on August 29. Orlando did not play well in its last outing but was able to earn a 1-1 against Nashville while Atlanta battled to an even worse 0-0 draw against Inter Miami. Orlando City has scored 15 more goals this season then has Atlanta United and holds a goal difference of +7 to a -1 for Atlanta. Final Score Prediction, Orlando City SC wins 3-0
2020 Kentucky Derby 9/5/20 – Horse Racing Picks
The Kentucky Derby is finally going to be run, granted a bit late, but it will be a great race and one that should have decent weather. The weather will definitely make it easier for the horses and the announcers to make the choice on who is in what position as the numbers are not going to get covered up with the mud.
Authentic is one horse that is coming in sitting at 8-1 on the race. That actually has him sitting in the third spot, but the downside is he has had some good races, but he has allowed himself to be run down from behind at different points on the year. Some of that comes from rumors that he let up early, but others are coming from doubts as to how he can run.
Max Player is another horse that could really surprise people and make them a lot of money. Max Player ended up finishing in third place in the Belmont Stakes and while the horse can run good the chance of running down Tiz the Law is slim, but he is one horse that could be a good bet as well.
Tiz the Law 3-5
Honor A.P. 5-1
Authentic 8-1
Thousand Words 15-1
Ny Traffic 20-1
King Guillermo 20-1
Sole Volante 30-1
Money Moves 30-1
Enforceable 30-1
Max Player 30-1
Winning Impressions 50-1
Attachment Rate 50-1
Necker Island 50-1
Finnick the Fierce 50-1
Storm the Court 50-1
Major Fed 50-1
South Bend 50-1
Mr. Big News 50-1
Free Horse Racing Pick: Tiz the Law 3/5
Tiz the Law is coming in at 3-5 and while he has been strong in the races he has some challenges coming into the race here. However, as the favorite he has a big target on his back and has already ran in the Belmont Stakes where h ended up winning the race. With that being the case it is easy to see Tiz the Law running away with the race here again as he has the proper trainers in place, the right owner, and his jockey has been in the position before. 2020 Kentucky Derby Winner Prediction, Tiz the Law
Thiago Moises vs Jalin Tuner 9/5/20 - UFC Fight Night
The lightweight battles are always fun to watch as the fighters tend to be very agile. Moises is coming to the bout here standing at 5’9” and 155 pounds. However, he does not have an advantage with a reach as his reach is only 70 inches. The overall record for Moises is 13-4.
When it comes to his fighting style he is more of an orthodox fighter. Coming to the fighting style here it will be hard to see what to prepare for as Moises does not have a true style declared. The last 5 bouts for Moises have been interesting to say the least with 3 wins and 2 loses. The wins have been by a KO/TKO, a unanimous decision, but also a submission. The losses have come in the form of a unanimous decision loss.
For Jalin Turner he is coming to the fight with a height advantage at 6’3” and 155 pounds Turner does hold a tremendous reach advantage as his reach is sitting at 77 inches coming into the fight here. Jalin has ended up with a 9-5 record in his career so far.
For the style that is used Turner tends to be seen more as a southpaw. With Turner he is coming to the fight as a striker and that could help him out with the reach advantage here. In his last 5 bouts Turner has ended up going 3-2. The wins have all been by a TKO/KO win. The losses have come in the form of a unanimous decision loss, but also with a KO/TKO loss as well.
Free Boxing Pick: Jalin Turner
While he is not declared as a striker Turners wins tend to show other. The good news for Moises is he does not have a glass jaw and his loses have mainly come from the judges. The bad news is Turner is one fighter that throws a lot of strikes and tends to put a lot of power behind those strikes. Look for those strikes to come in and land hard on Moises, which will eventually wear the smaller fighter down in this bout. UFC Fight Night Winner Prediction, Jalin Turner.
Michel Pereira vs Zelim Imadaev 9/5/20 - UFC Fight Night
Coming to the bout here Pereira is coming in standing at 6’1” and weighing at 170 pounds. However, when it comes to the reach h has managed to get a reach that sits at 73 inches. He does have a decent record that is sitting at 23-11 so far in his career.
The fighting stance that Pereira tends to use is more of the orthodox stance. Michel is also a fighter that tends to go towards the striker style. In his last 5 bouts he has ended up going 3-2. The losses have been by a DQ and a unanimous decision. The wins have been by a KO/TKO in a resounding and quick fashion.
For Zelim he is giving up a height advantage of an inch in the fight. He stands at 6’0 and 170 pounds. One thing that Zelim does have going for him is the reach advantage that stands at 76 inches. The record for Imadaev stands at 8-2 in his young career.
When it comes time to enter the octagon Zelim tends to favor the orthodox stance. As for his fighting style Imadaev does not have a style that he seems to go towards. In his last 5 bouts, though, Imadaev has not been that strong with 3 wins and 2 losses. The losses were both UFC fights and were by a TKO/KO and a M decision. The wins all came in the FNG and all were by the TKO/KO.
Free Boxing Pick: Michel Pereira
The fight here will be one that pits a wily veteran against an up comer. The difference is that Pereira tends to land his blows at a better rate, but also has learned in his matches to value the takedown so far. Look for those factors combined with the ability to move better around the octagon to be the difference in the bout as Pereira does enough to tip the judges hats towards him. UFC Fight Night Winner Prediction, Michel Pereira
Sijara Eubanks vs Karol Rosa 9/5/20 - UFC Fight Night
Coming to the fight here Sijara Eubanks is coming into the fight here with a height of 5’4” and 135 pound. She has ended up getting a reach that is sitting at 67 inches. She has posted a 6-4 record so far.
In her career Eubanks tends to go towards the Orthodox stance. Sijara tends to move more towards the striker style when it comes to her fighting style. However, in the last 5 bouts that has not really provided the benefit she would expect. She has ended up going 3-2, but out of all of her bouts they have all come as a unanimous decision.
With Karol Rosa she is coming into the fight here with a 5’5” and 135 pound advantage. When it comes to the reach Rosa has the same reach as Eubanks. In her career Rosa has been able to get a record that is sitting at 13-3.
When it comes to her fighting stance she tends to go to the orthodox style. The fighting style for Rosa has not really been declared as of yet, but she has been really good in her fights so far. She has ended up getting 4 wins and a loss in her last 5 bouts. A win and the loss were by submission. The other 3 wins were split evenly with one split and a unanimous decision win, but also a TKO.
Free Boxing Pick: Karol Rosa
The fight here is one which Eubanks will have to do all that she can to protect herself. She is giving up a significant number of strikes that can be landed and giving up a little bit of a height advantage. However, outside of that everything in the match is tipping towards Rosa to be the winner as she is landing almost 10 strikes per minute with a 50% accuracy. Those blows compared to the 4.95 of Eubanks makes it difficult to see Eubanks winning the match. UFC Fight Night Winner Prediction, Karol Rosa.
Ovince Saint Preux vs Alonzo Menifield 9/5/20 - UFC Fight Night
Heading into the fight here Saint Preux is coming into the fight standing at 6’3” and 205 pounds. However, Ovince has a great reach that is coming into the fight at 80 inches. The overall record for Ovince is sitting at 24-14 so far.
For his fighting stance Ovince tends to becoming in more as a southpaw. He is coming into the fight here as a striker as well. The downside is in the last 5 bouts Ovince has not looked good at all with 3 losses and only 2 wins. The wins were both by a submission win. The losses, though, were by a unanimous and a split decision, but also with a submission loss as well.
Alonzo Menifield is heding ot the bout here standing at 6’0” ad 205 pounds. However, he is coming in as a fighter with a total reach of 76 inches. When it comes to his overall record he has been very impressive with a 9-1 record.
Alonzo tends to use the orthodox stance and is seen as a striker when it comes to the type of style that he is comfortable using. Now, the last 5 bouts that Menifield has been involved in have ended up with 4 wins and a loss in the bouts. He has ended up with 3 KO/TKO wins, but also a submission win. The loss that he did get pinned with ended up being a unanimous decision loss.
Free Boxing Pick: Alonzo Menifield
With the fight here it will be one that is going to see Menifield having to avoid getting taken down. If he gets taken down quite a bit the fight will tip towards Ovince. However, if it is a stand up fight look for Menifield to bring home the win as he is able to throw more strikes per minute, but he is also coming in landing more strikes in the fight as well which will help him out in getting the win. UFC Fight Night Winner Prediction, Alonzo Menifield.
Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai 9/5/20 - UFC Fight Night
Coming into the fight here Overeem is coming into the match standing at 6’4” and 253 pounds. He has managed to get a decent 80 inch reach in his career. He has managed to get a lot of matches with a career record of 46-18.
Overeem tends to use more of the orthodox stance. Alistair is coming into the fight here as a striker. In his last 5 bout he has had nothing but KO/TKO endings to his fights. Out of those 5 fights he has been able to do really well. Overeem has picked up 3 wins and 2 losses in the matches.
With Augusto he is coming into the fight here standing at 6’3” and 259 pounds. He does give up a little bit of a reach advantage with only 77 inches as his reach. When it comes to his overall record Sakai has posted a really good 15-1-1 record.
As far as his fighting stance Sakai tends to use the orthodox stance. Sakai is also coming into the fight as a striker. He has ended up getting a really good mark in his last 5 matches as he has won all 5 of them. The wins have come by 2 split decision wins, but he also has managed to get 3 wins by TKO/KO.
Free Boxing Pick: Augusto Sakai
With the fight here it will be interesting to see which fighter will come out on top. However, the good money will actually go toward Augusto Sakai. He throws 5.45 strikes per minute compared to Overeem who has ended up with 3.66 strikes per minute. Look for those strikes to make a difference and will wear down Overeem in the fight here. UFC Fight Night Winner Prediction, Augusto Sakai.
Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics 9/5/20 - NBA
The Toronto Raptors look to even their NBA Eastern Conference semifinals best-of-seven series on Saturday when Game 4 against the Boston Celtics. Toronto defeated Boston 104-103 in Game 3 to narrow the Celtics lead to 2-1 in the series. OG Anunoby sank a three-point jump shot with 0.5 seconds remaining on the clock to give Toronto the victory and avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series. Kyle Lowry was the leading scorer for Toronto in the victory with 31 points and the Raptors point guard finished with eight assists and six rebounds.
Fren VanVleet is leading Toronto in scoring and assists with averages of 20.0 points and 7.4 assists per game. Serge Ibaka is the leading rebounder for Toronto with an average of 9.0 per game. Pascal Siakam is the second-leading scorer with an average of 18.4 points per game and one of six players for Toronto averaging double figures in scoring.
Boston was disappointed following the one-point loss to Toronto, as the Celtics had hoped to take a commanding 3-0 in the series. However, Boston still leads 2-1 and with a victory on Saturday can put Toronto into another big hole. Kemba Walker was the leading scorer for Boston in the loss with 29 points, while Jaylen Brown scored 19 points and pulled down 12 rebounds. The loss was Boston's first in it's seven playoff games this season.
Jayson Tatum is leading Boston in scoring and rebounding with averages of 25.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Kemba Walker is the second-leading scorer and leader in assists with averages of 23.0 points and 4.6 assists per game. Boston has five players averaging double-figures in scoring.
Recent Betting Trends
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Raptors last 6
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7
The UNDER has cashed in each of the Celtics last 5
Free NBA Pick: Under 213
Boston will come up big with a victory in Game 4, but the play here is the UNDER as defense has taken hold in the series. The UNDER has cashed in each of Boston's last five, in four of the Celtics last five when playing against the Raptors and in eight of the Celtics last nine overall. In addition, the UNDER has cashed in five of Toronto's last six overall. Final Score Prediction, Boston Celtics win but our best play is UNDER 106-103.
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