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MIAMI MARLINS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
TB Rays Win Money Line
-230
Over 7.5 Game Totals
-115
Money Line Pick
Blake Snell and Sandy Alcantara match up for the second time in less than a week, with the latter looking to make up for a disastrous outing last Sunday in Miami. Alcantara allowed eight runs in just 4.0 innings in his first start in over a month, returning from a bout with Covid-19. We’ve seen so many cases of elite athletes struggling to regain their full fitness and form even months after overcoming the virus, and Alcantara appears to be no different. When he’s at his best, he can shut down any lineup in the big leagues, but when he’s not, a team like the Rays can take advantage much like they did last Sunday. Snell got the win in that game, and he’s unbeaten at 3-0 through seven starts this year. He’s been stretched out to go deeper and deeper into games and knows what he needs to do to quiet a Marlins’ lineup that’s playing for a wild card spot. Don’t expect anything different from the last matchup between Snell and Alcantara; take the Rays again.★★
Game Totals Pick
Nineteen runs were scored six days ago the last time Snell and Alcantara squared off. We went with the under that day, but as the old saying goes: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The only difference between these lineups from Sunday to now is that the Marlins have added Starling Marte, a powerful right-handed bat who immediately becomes their most dangerous hitter. We can’t promise another 19, but look for another high-scoring affair and bet the over.★
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CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. KANSAS CITY ROYALS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
CHI White Sox Win Money Line
-230
Under 9.0 Game Totals
-105
Money Line Pick
Lucas Giolito has looked like a Cy Young candidate his past three starts. He threw seven scoreless against Detroit before his no-hitter against the Pirates, which he followed up with a gutsy five-inning effort on Monday, allowing just two earned runs and striking out eight. He hasn’t faced the Royals yet this year but has dominated them in the past, with a 6-2 record and 2.75 ERA in 12 career starts against Kansas City. He’s clearly a level above Royals starter Kris Bubic, who has yet to record a win through six Major League starts since making his debut at the end of July. Bubic has already faced the White Sox twice this year and had a solid outing his last time, but the Chicago lineup will have a better read on the 23-year-old lefty this time. The Royals are second-to-last in the American League in both scoring and on-base percentage, and they’re just not good enough of a team to beat a confident Giolito without an ace of their own on the mound. Go with the White Sox.★★
Game Totals Pick
Giolito has held the Royals to an incredible .181 batting average in his 12 starts against them, in large enough of a sample size to account for approximately half an offensive season. Many of the Royals responsible for that low number are still on the team: Adalberto Mondesi is just 1-for-17 against Giolito, Whit Merrifield is hitting .160 against him, and Alex Gordon leads the pack with a .222 average. It’s hard to score runs when you don’t have baserunners. Take the under.★
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CINCINNATI REDS VS. PITTSBURGH PIRATES PREDICTIONS
PICKS
PIT Pirates Win Money Line
+120
Over 9.5 Game Totals
+100
Money Line Pick
In a standard 162-game season, even the worst teams in the league manage to win at least 50 games. It’s safe to assume that the bottom-feeders of the league in this abbreviated year should be good for 19 or 20. The Pirates are 12-25 and, more likely than not, will finish with the worst record in the National League, but their wins will come too, albeit more spread out. They’ll have a good a chance as ever on Saturday facing Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 7.71 ERA through five starts. DeSclafani faced the Pirates three weeks ago and was rocked for nine runs in just 2.0 innings, and wasn’t much better in his last start, giving up seven to the Cardinals while pitching just 3.2 innings. Trevor Williams has already beaten the Reds once this year, and while he hasn’t been able to find the form that won him 14 games two years ago, he can still be depended upon for a quality start against a Reds offense that has cooled down in the past week. Take the Pirates.★★
Game Totals Pick
Williams, in fact, was the opposing starting pitcher in DeSclafani’s implosion on August 13. He was average in that game, giving up three runs in 5.0 innings, which was enough for a win but not promising for under bettors. The two teams scored just six and seven runs in the two games of their doubleheader Friday, but look for at least one of the lineups (more likely Pittsburgh) to break through Saturday. The Reds have given up 10 or more runs twice in the past week. Take the over again.★
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS. NEW YORK METS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
NY Mets Win Money Line
-140
Under 9.5 Game Totals
-110
Money Line Pick
This important series rolls on into the weekend as the Phillies will be hoping to close the gap on the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead. Philadelphia will turn to Spencer Howard in this spot, who is now 1-1 on the season after picking up his first career win this past week. He still has an ERA of 5.40, so by no means is he one of their best pitchers. Howard faced the Mets once this season, allowing three runs over 3.1 innings. His velocity could be a cause of concern, seeing that in his last start, it went from 95.3 mph in the first inning to 91.9 mph in the fifth inning. It should not be that much of an issue, but if that continues, the Mets might be able to take advantage.
Seth Lugo will start on the other side for the Mets, who is 1-2, but has an ERA of 2.12. He pitched into the fourth inning for the first time in a couple years last time out, but only managed to compile 60 pitches. Lugo has only pitched against the Phillies in relief this season, allowing one run over 1.1 innings. It was nice to see Howard get his first win in his most recent start, but Lugo been the more consistent pitcher. As a result, I will look to back New York an avoid the Phillies’ bullpen all together.★
Game Totals Pick
The total may be a little more tricky because while Howard has not always been the most consistent, he has not had a start where he has allowed more than four runs. Lugo can also be trusted to keep his team in the game, as he has only allowed two runs all year. Even knowing the Phillies and Mets bullpen could ruin this total in the dying innings, I am going to look for a lower scoring game. The total splits are essentially even for both teams this season and the under is 3-1 in their four head to head meetings in 2020. As a result, it would be a lean to the under.★
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DETROIT TIGERS VS. MINNESOTA TWINS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
MIN Twins - Game 1 Win Money Line
-175
Under 7.0 Game Totals
-105
Money Line Pick
Former Uber driver Randy Dobnak has become one of the most exciting young pitchers to watch in the American League. The 25-year-old has won five of his seven starts this season, pitching to a 3.12 ERA. He struggled against the Tigers in his last start, but he’s too good of a pitcher to make two subpar starts against the same mediocre team. Despite being one of the greatest hitters of our generation, Miguel Cabrera has been unable to figure Dobnak out so far, with just one hit in seven career at-bats. Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd has been a fixture of their rotation for the past five seasons. Never an All-Star, he’s been relied on to eat up innings, but he’s struggled to do that this season, averaging less than five innings pitched per start. His 7.27 ERA does not bode well, especially in a seven-inning game in which Dobnak can take it straight to the back end of the Minnesota bullpen. Take the Twins to win Game 1.
Game Totals Pick
While Boyd has struggled overall this year, he has improved in each of his past three starts. He also faced Minnesota his last time out and allowed just two runs (one earned) in 6.0 innings pitched. He’s too mediocre of a pitcher to be able to replicate that against the team that set the Major League record for home runs last season, but he should pitch well enough to keep his team in the game in the early innings. With Dobnak on the mound for Minnesota, take the under.
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NEW YORK YANKEES VS. BALTIMORE ORIOLES PREDICTIONS
PICKS
BAL Orioles Win +1.5 Run Line
+135
Under 9.0 Game Totals
-105
Run Line Pick
Gerrit Cole will look to bounce from consecutive losses as he makes the start here for the New York Yankees. He is now 4-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.91. During this stretch of two starts, Cole has allowed nine runs over 10.0 innings. These starts came against the Atlanta Braves and the Tampa Bay Rays. Cole has one start against the Orioles this season, allowing three runs over 6.2 innings.
Starting for the Orioles will be Keegan Allen, who has an ERA of 3.52. He made his first career start last week against the Blue Jays, going 4.1 innings without allowing an earned run. As long as Allen does not get shelled early, he is going to give his team a real chance.
Laying this kind of price with the Yankees is crazy, even with Cole on the mound. He has not looked good recently, making the Yankees run line much too steep as well. Cole is prone to the long ball, giving up 10 home runs through eight starts. He is obviously going to rack up the strikeouts, but I cannot trust him right now, so I will take Baltimore on the run line at a nice plus money price. ★
Game Totals Pick
It really depends on which Gerrit Cole we get here to determine how this game is going to go. If he allows four or five runs for the third time in a row, I would expect this game to be rather high scoring. If he goes at least 6.0 innings and allows three or less, I would be expecting an under. Then there is the unknown of Allen. He has not pitched enough at the MLB level for us to know how consistent of a pitcher he can be. The Yankees clearly have been missing Aaron Judge, so to think they will be able to score seven or more runs by themselves may be a little wishful thinking. I do think Allen will have success early, given that he has not faced the Yankees and they may not know what to expect. Much like the side, there is no chance I would put much on this total. However, it is about time for Cole to get back to being himself, so I will take the under as a small lean. ★
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COLORADO ROCKIES VS. LOS ANGELES DODGERS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
LA Dodgers Win -1.5 Run Line
-125
Over Game Totals
-110
Run Line Pick
The Rockies started strong but for the last two to three weeks consistency has eluded them, mostly because their pitching has been failing. The offense has not been great either as the uber consistent Nolan Arenado has yet to find his stride. If the Rockies are going to push into the playoffs they need their ace German Marquez. He has not been good for about a month but his splits don’t lie – he has a 2.66 ERA on the road and an ever over seven at home. Though it is questionable how much that will matter taking on one of the best lineups in the majors in L.A. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. The Dodgers are going to counter with Tony Gonsolin, a promising young arm that enabled them to deal the homer prone Ross Stripling. Gonsolin might not have the ceiling of guys like Julio Urias or Dustin May but his 0.51 ERA plays fine just fine in front of the Dodgers, who are second in scoring and first in homers. He can just go out and pitch. He should have success against Colorado. Take the Dodgers on the run line.★★★
Game Totals Pick
Gonsolin has put up some very good numbers but that ERA is going to rise after this one. It is not that he is going to get rocked but it has nowhere to go but up unless he is perfect. Marquez can and will be better but he is not going to find his game in this one and start spitting out shutouts. Both teams are going to get at least three runs each off of the starters. Add in more for the Dodgers off a subpar Colorado ‘pen and the over is the call here. Take the over.**
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TEXAS RANGERS VS. SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
SEA Mariners Money Line
-130
Over 8.5 Game Totals
-115
Money Line Pick
When Lance Lynn is pitching the Rangers have a chance against pretty much anyone, he can be that good. On any other night they look pretty pathetic as the struggle to score and don’t pitch all that well. They are near the bottom of the league in all the major offensive categories and I don’t expect that to change. Kyle Gibson has pitched about as well as any pitcher not named Lyn on the staff, which is to say that he has not been very good. Taking on a pretty light Seattle lineup can help but he gave up four runs in four innings when he faced them in early August. Meanwhile, Justus Sheffield has been showing improvement as the season has progressed. His best game might have been against the same Ranger about two weeks ago. They are kind of a one hit wonder on offense with Kyle Lewis leading the way. Kyle Seager has his moments but they were really hoping to deal him, and couldn’t. They are playing out the string, both teams are, but Seattle is the play. Take the Mariners.★★
Game Totals Pick
With the way these teams struggle to score it is hard to think over here, but it is not like Sheffield and Gibson are going to pitch to a 2-1 final. Gibson has been getting hit hard all season long and Sheffield, while improving is still pretty inconsistent. Putting those two on the same mound, and their supporting bullpens looks like an over opportunity for me. Just don’t bet the house. Take the over.★
*
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
SF Giants Win Money Line
-140
Over 8.5 Game Totals
-120
Money Line Pick
The suddenly resilient San Francisco Giants will open a series with the slumping Arizona Diamondbacks here. Everybody spent all offseason trashing this Giants lineup, but the ragtag group has quietly been excellent. They exploded for 23 runs a couple of nights ago, and they’ve now scored the third most runs in MLB. Nobody saw that coming, to say the least. They’ve now gone 10-4 in their last 14 games to crawl back into the playoff race, and will look to keep it going with Tyler Anderson on the mound here. Anderson got roughed up in his most recent outing, but he threw a complete game shutout against this same D-Backs team right before that. Arizona starter Taylor Clarke has been solid through only 24 and 1/3 innings this year, but considering he had a 5.31 ERA last season I think it’s a fluke. Arizona is just 5-15 on the road this year. Bet on San Francisco to keep it rolling.★★
Game Totals Pick
The over also makes some sense here. Believe it or not the Giants have one of the best offenses in the big leagues, and I don’t have much confidence in either pitcher. Both teams’ bullpens are in the bottom third of the league, so we should see plenty of runs after the starters leave the game. Anderson gave up seven earned runs in his most recent start, and the last two games the Giants have played in have seen 43 total runs get scored. As long as oddsmakers keep disrespecting this San Francisco offense, keep taking the over.★★
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: HUNTER AZURE VS. COLE SMITH PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Azure Win by Decision Fight Prop
+110
Fight Prop Pick
The first fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Hunter Azure take on Cole Smith. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Azure comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. He is 1-1 after losing his last fight by KO against Brian Kelleher back in May of this year. His has shown to be a good striker, averaging 4.71 significant strikes per minute. He also does not take a ton of damage, absorbing just 1.97 strikes. His grappling game is decent, averaging 1.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes, however he is only landing these at 33%.
Smith comes in 7-1 in the MMA and is also 1-1 in the UFC after losing his last fight. This was back in September of 2019, so it will be almost a year since he last fought. His striking is extremely lacking, averaging just 1.63 significant strikes per minute. He also only lands these strikes at an accuracy of 33%. He actually takes even less damage, just 1.53 strikes per minute. His grappling is nothing special either as he averages 1.30 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them at an accuracy of 30%.
Because Smith is very good at limiting damage, I am going to back Azure to win this fight on the judge’s scorecards. I do not think either guy will have much success on the ground, so I will look for Azure to dominate in a stand up fight.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA VS. ALEXANDER ROMANOV PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Romanov Win Money Line
-136
Money Line Pick
The second fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Marcos Rogerio De Lima take on Alexander Romanov. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. De Lima is the much more experienced fighter, having posted a record of 17-6-1 in his career and 6-4 in the UFC. He is coming off a KO win against Ben Sosoli back in February of this year. De Lima is looking to keep this fight standing, having averaged 3.78 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 54%. His grappling is not as prevalent, averaging just 0.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 60%. More concerning is his takedown defense, which is 36%. Also, it is worth noting that his last four losses have all come by submission, so if the fight moves to the ground, he is likely in a world of trouble.
Romanov puts his perfect 11-0 record on the line here as he makes his UFC debut. What is most impressive about Romanov is his ability to finish his fights. Five career wins by KO/TKO and six wins by submission means he has never gone the distance in a fight. Also, nine of his 11 fights have ended in the first round, so Romanov will be looking to make a statement early.
Given De Lima’s struggles at stopping a submission attempt, I am going to back Romanov to make his first statement in the UFC.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MONTANA DE LA ROSA VS. VIVIANE ARAUJO PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Araujo Win Money Line
-178
Money Line Pick
The third fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Montana De La Rosa take on Viviane Araujo. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. De La Rosa comes in 11-5 in the MMA and 4-1 in the UFC. She won her most recent fight by unanimous decision against Mara Romero Borella back in February of this year. Her striking has been below average, landing just 2.30 significant strikes per minute. Her striking accuracy is also very poor, landing just 33% of her strikes. She does have pretty good striking defense, absorbing 2.80 strikes. She does most of her damage on the ground where she averages 2.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though her takedown accuracy is a problem at 33%. Eight of her wins have come by submission, three of these coming in the UFC.
Araujo comes in 8-2 in the MMA and has started her UFC career with a record of 2-1. She lost her last fight to Jessica Eye by unanimous decision back in December of 2019. She is more of a balanced fighter, averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute, but at the same time, is absorbing 5.20 strikes. Her grappling is also relevant, averaging 2.57 takedowns per every 15 minutes, and landing them at an accuracy of 58%. Another important note is that she has been able to defend takedowns with a 100% accuracy, which could really ruin the game plan for De La Rosa.
I think Araujo’s more balanced fight style is going to be the main difference here. He is a better striker, and far better at taking her opponent down as well as defending the takedown. By no means do I feel strongly about this fight, but I will lean to the Araujo side to win.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: ANDRE MUNIZ VS. BARTOSZ FABINSKI PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Fabinski Win Money Line
-158
Money Line Pick
The featured preliminary at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Bartosz Fabinski take on Andre Muniz. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Fabinski is comes in 15-3 in the MMA and 3-1 in the UFC. He recently won a fight in March of this year, however this was at a Cage Warriors event during the pandemic. His last UFC fight came in November of 2018, so it has been quite a layoff. His striking is not that sharp, averaging just 2.22 significant strikes per minute. Though he is landing them at 70% an only takes 1.35 strikes of damage per minute. The ground however, is where Fabinski will want this fight. He is averaging 7.17 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them at an accuracy of 70%. Plus, his takedown defense is 80%, so it seems unlikely he will get tossed down often, if at all.
Muniz comes into this fight 19-4 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He will be looking to build off that debut win which came by unanimous decision against Antonio Arroyo back in November of 2019. Muniz is also a low volume striking guy, landing just 2.27 significant strikes per minute. He will also want this fight to be on the ground where he averages 2.83 takedowns for every 15 minutes. The issue with this is that Muniz only lands 35% of his own takedowns and prevents 33% of his opponent’s takedowns.
Muniz does have 12 submission wins in his career, but given the defense of Fabinski, I do not see that happening here. Even with the long UFC layoff, Fabinski has still fought more recently and it was against a formidable opponent in Darren Stewart. I believe Fabinski will be able to takedown Muniz at least a few times and will take him as a lean.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: THIAGO MOISES VS. JALIN TURNER PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Moises Win Money Line
-178
Money Line Pick
The Main Card will kick off when Thiago Moises takes on Jalin Turner. This will be fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Moises is 13-4 in his MMA career, and 2-2 in the UFC. He is coming off a submission win against Michael Johnson in May of this year. He certainly does not have the best striking, averaging just 2.68 strikes per minute. He also only lands his strikes at 43%. As a result, he was out-struck 27 to 1 against Johnson in that recent fight, however still got the finish pretty quickly. It is also worth noting that he has never been finished in his career, only losing by the judge’s scorecards, so his chin is quite strong. His grappling is a big part of his game as he averages 1.10 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.60 submission attempts during the same time period. Though his takedown accuracy is poor at 28%.
Turner comes into this fight 9-5 in the MMA and 2-2 in the UFC as well. He is coming off a win by TKO, beating Joshua Culibao back in February of this year. He is a much better striker, landing an average of 5.95 significant strikes per minute. He does absorb a little more damage, 3.91 strikes per minute. As a result, he has been finished three times in his career, but only once in the UFC.
Moises was impressive in that fight against Johnson and because he has never been finished, I am going to lean his way to find the win.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: KEVIN NATIVIDAD VS. BRIAN KELLEHER PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Fight to go the Distance - No Fight Prop
-168
Fight Prop Pick
The second Main Card fight will see Kevin Natividad take on Brian Kelleher. It will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Kelleher has been busy this year, making his fourth appearance in the Octagon. This will be his third fight since the COVID-19 pandemic, where he is 2-1. He did lose his last fight to Cody Stammen at UFC 250 back in June, but now will be facing a much less inexperienced fighter. Kelleher will focus on striking in this fight, having landed 4.48 significant strikes per minute. He does struggle to land them accurately, just 40% of the time. The other issue is he absorbs 6.00 strikes per minute, though he has only been knocked out once in his entire career. As for grappling, Kelleher averages 1.21 takedowns per every 15 minute, though only does so with an accuracy of 25%.
Natividad is 9-1 in the MMA and will make his UFC debut in this spot. He has won five fights in a row, three of which by finish and the other two by decision. He now has five career KO/TKO wins, but just one by submission. Note that Natividad has a four inch reach advantage of Kelleher, which may help keep his distance just a bit.
I really do not want to back either guy on the money line because Kellher’s price is too high and backing a guy making his debut does not always work out. Kelleher has 17 wins by finish and 24 of his 32 professional fights have ended inside the distance. That also includes 7 of his 9 UFC fights. Therefore, I will back this fight to end inside the distance as a small lean.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MICHEL PEREIRA VS. ZELIM IMADAEV PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Pereira Win Money Line
-115
Money Line Pick
This Main Card fight will see Michel Pereira take on Zelim Imadaev. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Pereira comes in with a record of 23-11 in the MMA, but just 1-2 in the UFC. He has lost his last two fights in a row, most recently to Diego Sanchez by KO back in February of this year. His striking is pretty average, landing 3.04 significant strikes per minute. He is landing these strikes at 51% as well. He is absorbing 3.04 strikes too, so his defense has also been decent. As for his grappling, he is landing an average of 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 57%, while his takedown defense is a perfect 100%. Pereira also has a total of 16 finishes in his career, 10 by TKO/KO, but just one finish in the UFC.
On the other side is Imadaev, who is 8-2 in the MMA, but 0-2 in the UFC. He is still searching for that first win inside the Octagon, or it is possible he might be in danger of losing his UFC contract. His striking is decent, averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute. The main issue is his 41% accuracy. Also, he absorbs more damage at 3.37 strikes, but has only been knocked out once (his last fight).
This fight is so evenly matched, but I will give a slight edge to the Pereira side. He is a little more of a balanced fight with his grappling ability, so I will back him as a very small lean to win this fight.
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Jody Demling
17 Tiz the Law (5-8) - I have been on him all year but really was thinking about picking Art Collector; but his scratch made it easy on me. I'll go with the best horse in the field.
16 Honor A.P. (5-1) - The Santa Anita Derby winner is the best of the West Coast; his last start was disappointing but I think he improves.
12 Sole Volante (35-1) - The Belmont Stakes was a major disappointment; but I will give him another shot, plus his style is great for the stretch at Churchill Downs.
15 NY Traffic (20-1) - Almost beat Authentic in the Haskell and has looked really good at Churchill.
5 Major Fed (60-1) - Runner-up in the Indiana Derby is likely to be still running in the end; would be a great story with local trainer Greg Foley.
18 Authentic (8-1) - Trainer Bob Baffert has endure so much bad luck this spring, but he still has the son of Into Mischief. Not sure he wants the added distance and might have to go to fast in the No. 18 post position but he's going to be trying until the end.
10 Thousand Words (12-1) - Beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert thinks he should be a factor in the Derby.
2 Max Player (30-1) - The son of Honor Code ran a solid third in the Belmont Stakes and third in the Travers; he's in a new barn with trainer Steve Asmussen and has looked great training at Churchill Downs.
13 Attachment Rate (40-1) - Not sure he fits still with the best of this bunch, but he will be coming in the end and pass some tired horses.
9 Mr. Big News (100-1) - Won as a long shot at Oaklawn in April; was looking to run on the turf but opted for the Derby and is going to get the distance.
3 Enforceable (25-1) - Have had him higher all year but he keeps disappointing me; just don't see him in the top half.
14 Winning Impression (100-1) - The only reason I think he will beat any of the horses in the field is that some won't get the distance; he'll at least keep running.
8 South Bend (50-1) - Was entered just before the draw on Tuesday; likely to be running in the end.
7 Money Moves (40-1) - Trainer Todd Pletcher said he's 'taking a shot' for the Derby and it's with a horse that is 2-for-3 coming off an allowance win.
11 Necker Island (85-1) - If the connections can get in, I believe they will go just to see him run.
4 Storm the Court (60-1) - Won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but doesn't belong going against the best of this crop right now.
$5 EXACTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 ($25)
$2 EXACTA 17 with 2,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,13,14 ($20)
$0.50 TRIFECTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with ALL ($35)
$0.10 SUPERFECTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with 5,12,15,16,18 with ALL ($26)
$0.10 SUPERFECTA 5,12,15,16,18 with 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with 2,5,9,10,12,13,15,16,18 ($14)
And my just in case wagers - looking at the long shots
$1 EXACTA 12,15 with 2,5,9,10,12,13,15,16,17,18 ($20)
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS. ALONZO MENIFIELD PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Saint Preux Win Money Line
+108
Money Line Pick
The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Ovince Saint Preux take on Alonzo Menifield. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Saint Preux comes into this fight 24-14 in the MMA and 12-9 in the UFC. He tried his luck in the Heavyweight division last time out, but lost to Ben Rothwell. This fight was back in May of this year and the fight ended in a split decision loss. Saint Preux now returns to where he is more comfortable, the Light Heavyweight division. He is not exactly a great striker, averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute, so his defense is solid as well. While he did not land a takedown in his recent Heavyweight fight, Saint Preux averages 1.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only at an accuracy of 40%.
His opponent, Alonzo Menifield, is 9-1 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He is coming off the first loss of his career, a loss back in June of this year to Devin Clark by unanimous decision. Menifield is a decent striker, averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 3.75 strikes, which could be worrisome against a guy like Saint Preux with knockout power. Menifield does not like to fight on the ground, but he does a great job at defending takedowns (85% takedown defense). Saint Preux has seen 14 of his 21 UFC fights end inside the distance and two of the three fights in the Octagon for Menifield have seen a finish as well.
Both fighters looked lackluster in their previous fights, but with Saint Preux making the move back to Light Heavyweight, I think he has the edge here. Menefield looked exhausted in his last fight as well, seeing that it did not end in the first round, so my pick would be Ovince Saint Preux.
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: ALISTAIR OVEREEM VS. AUGUSTO SAKAI PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Overeem Win Money Line
-164
Money Line Pick
The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Alistair Overeem take on Augusto Sakai. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Overeem is clearly a seasoned veteran in the MMA, posting a record of 46-18 in his career. He is 11-7 in the UFC and the #6 contender in the division. He is coming off a win over Walt Harris from May of this year, beating him by TKO in the second round. He is 3-3 over his last six fights, so he has been a little inconsistent. Overeem is a pretty balanced striker, averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is 63%. He does only absorb 2.18 strikes per minute, but has been knocked out 14 times in his career and seven times in the UFC. His grappling is also pretty good, averaging 1.40 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 54% and his takedown defense is 73%. He also has 17 submission wins in his career, but none in the UFC, so a stand up fight might be more likely.
Sakai is 15-1-1 in the MMA and 4-0 in the UFC. He most recently won in May of this year by split decision against Blagoy Ivanov. Sakai is the #9 contender in the Heavyweight division and with a win against a guy like Overeem, he could certainly be closer to a title shot. Sakai is almost exclusively a striker, averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute. He does absorb more damage, but has never been knocked out in his career.
Some of Sakai’s recent fights have resulted in questionable decisions. He was out-struck by Andrei Arlovski a couple fights ago, 75 to 42, yet still managed to get the win. Overeem look revitalized against Harris in May and that will be who I side with here to get another big win.
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TORONTO FC VS VANCOUVER WHITECAPS PREDICTIONS
PICKS
Toronto Win Money Line
-200
Money Line Pick
Toronto FC travel to Vancouver hoping to avoid a second straight loss to a fellow Canadian team. Toronto were far from their best on Tuesday when they dropped a 1-0 decision at home to the Montreal Impact. Still, they’re one of the deepest and most talented teams in the league, and while every team hits a dry spell occasionally, a team like Toronto should be able to snap out of it quickly. Last year’s MLS Cup finalists are without a doubt the most dominant team in Canada, and they’re looking to sweep the season series with their cross-country rivals before hopefully being able to face tougher competition in the United States once the border is cleared to open. Vancouver have lost three in a row since the MLS is Back Tournament, and while they haven’t yet played at home, the lack of fans won’t give them much of a home-field advantage. Vancouver failed to score in either of their two games against Toronto last month, and it’s hard to imagine Toronto playing a team of this level and not scoring. Take the away team to win.
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