Saturday 9/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Campbell at Georgia Southern 9/12/20 - College Football

The Campbell Fighting Camels visit Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Georgia to play the Georgia Southern Eagles. Last season Campbell finished 6-5. The Fighting Camels offense will be led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who last season threw for 2,042 yards and 17 touchdowns while also rushing for 891 yards and nine touchdowns. The top two leading receivers returning for Campbell are Caleb Snead-Goliath who last season had 554 yards and six touchdowns and Jalen Kelsey with 537 yards in seven touchdowns.

The defense for Campbell will be led by linebacker Justice Galloway-Velazquez who last season posted 111 tackles of which 7.5 were for a loss and three quarterback sacks. defensive back Darion Slade had 70 tackles, one interception and one forced fumble while Dorian Jones made 55 tackles, of which four were four losses, one quarterback sack and one interception.

Georgia Southern was 7-6 overall last season and 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference. In 2020, eight starters return for the offense but the passing game is almost non-existent as last season they averaged just 75 yards per game. Quarterback Shai Werts is back after last season rushing for 740 yards and five touchdowns. Wesley Kennedy also returns after rushing for a team-high 825 yards and 11 touchdowns and JD King also returns after rushing for 804 yards and 8 TDS.

The defense for Georgia Southern led the Sun Belt Conference in tackles for a loss and was very strong against the run. The secondary must replace three starters but safety Kendrick Duncan who is one of the best tacklers on the team returns, while transfer Ephraim Kitchen will help at cornerback. At linebacker Reynard Ellis returns who last year had 86 tackles, while Rayshad Byrd is also back and made 85 tackles last season.

Recent Betting Trends

Campbell is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 17
Georgia Southern is 6-3 SU in its last 9
The OVER has cashed in 4 of the Eagles last 6

Free NCAAF Pick: Campbell Fighting Camels

Georgia Southern will wear down the Campbell Fighting Camels defense with its strong running game led by Shai Werts, Wesley Kennedy and JD King.The Eagles have won six of their last nine straight up. Campbell will not win this game straight up, but will play well enough to cover the number. Final Score Prediction, Georgia Southern Eagles win but fall short ATS 38-20.

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UTSA at Texas State 9/12/20 - College Football

The UTSA Roadrunners visit Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas on Saturday to play the Texas State Bobcats. UTSA was 4-8 overall and 3-5 in the Conference USA during 2019. New head coach Jeff Traylor will have eight starters returning from the offense. Josh Adkins is expected to take over the job as starting quarterback, after transferring from New Mexico State where he threw for 5,151 yards and 27 touchdowns during the past two seasons, while Sincere McCormick returns as the top running back after rushing for 983 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2019.

Defensively UTSA led the Conference USA last season in tackles-for-loss while the defense against the run struggled and the secondary was burned too often. However, eight of the top 10 tacklers from last season return including six starters. The strength of the unit will be the secondary with three safeties returning from last year and a pair of cornerbacks.

Texas State opened its regular season with a 31-24 loss to the SMU Mustangs. The game was close the whole way with the score tied 14-14 at the half. Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his first start for Texas State. Jeremiah Haydel was on the receiving end of one of McBride's two touchdown passes while Chandler Speights caught the other, but it wasn't enough to hold off the Mustangs.

Brady McBride has thrown for 227 yards, two touchdowns and one interception through one game for Texas State. The leading rusher for the Bobcats is Calvin Hill with 100 yards while Brock Sturges and Jaylen Gipson each have one rushing touchdown. The leading receiver for the Bobcats is Travis Graham Jr. with 59 yards, while Chandler Speights and Jeremiah Haydel each have one touchdown reception.

Recent Betting Trends

UTSA is 5-1 ATS in its last 6
The OVER has cashed in 5 of the Roadrunners last 6
Texas State is 1-7 SU in its last 8
The UNDER has cashed in 7 of the Bobcats last 9

Free NCAAF Pick: UTSA Roadrunners +7

Texas State started its season with a seven-point loss to SMU and although the Bobcats will win this game, UTSA will cover. Texas State has a solid offense behind quarterback Brady McBride, but the defense allows too many yards. The Bobcats have failed to cover five of the last seven played during week 2, while UTSA has covered the number in five of its last six overall. Final Score Prediction, Texas State Bobcats win but fall short ATS 27-24.

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Arkansas State at Kansas State 9/12/20 - College Football

On Saturday, the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas to play the Kansas State Wildcats. Arkansas State began its regular season with a 37-24 loss to the Memphis Tigers. The Red Wolves scored early to take a 14-7 lead after one quarter but we're outscored 30-10 the rest of the way. Ryan Graham and Isaiah Azubuike each had rushing touchdowns in the loss while Logan Bonner threw one touchdown pass but had a pair of interceptions.

Layne Hatcher has thrown for 166 yards for Arkansas State while Logan Bonner has thrown for 133 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jamal Jones is the leading rusher for the Red Wolves with 64 yards. Dahu Green is the leading receiver for Arkansas State with 99 yards, while Jonathan Adams Jr has 65 yards.

Kansas State lost several key skill-position players as 28 seniors left of which 15 were starters. Senior quarterback Skylar Thompson returns to lead the offense. Last season Thompson threw for 2,315 yards while also rushing for 405 yards and accounting for a total of 23 touchdowns. Malik Knowles and Joshua Youngblood will be Thompson's favorite targets while the addition of Briley Moore, a graduate transfer will help.

On the defensive side of the ball, Justin Hughes returns at linebacker after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. In 2018, Hughes led the Wildcats with 56 tackles. Elijah Sullivan will line up alongside Hughes while Cody Fletcher and Daniel Green will see plenty of action at linebacker as well. Wyatt Hubert returns as the top defensive lineman, but the defensive secondary has to replace three of its star players who are no longer at the school.

Recent Betting Trends

Arkansas state is 5-2 ATS in its last 7
The UNDER has cashed in each of the Red Wolves last 5 versus the Big 12
Kansas state is 6-2 ATS in its last 8
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Wildcats last 6

Free NCAAF Pick: Kansas State Wildcats -10

Kansas State lost 15 of its 22 starters from last season but it's senior quarterback Skylar Thompson returns to begin his fourth season as a starter under center. The Wildcats have covered the number in eight of their last 10. Kansas State is also replacing several faces on the defense but with Justin Hughes returning at linebacker after missing an entire season expect the K-State defense to shutdown a subpar offensive unit for Arkansas State. Final Score Prediction, Kansas State Wildcats win and cover ATS 42-14.

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Duke at Notre Dame 9/12/20 - College Football

The Duke Blue Devils will visit Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana on Saturday to play the No. 10 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the opening game of the 2020 college football regular season for both. Duke was 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the ACC during 2019. Offensively, eight starters return and will be led at quarterback by Chase Brice who transferred from Clemson. Deon Jackson returns after rushing for 641 yards and six touchdowns last season, but the receiving corps is an unknown as there aren't any tested experienced players there.

On the defense, last season the Duke pass rush was very strong and seven of its top nine tacklers return. Victor Dimukeje returns after leading the Blue Devils in sacks last season with 8.5 and Chris Rumph is back after making 6.5 sacks of his own last season. Duke must replace Koby Quansah at linebacker and that unit could be the weak link of the defense. In the secondary several players were lost to transfers including Dylan Singleton who will start at one safety alongside Marquis Waters.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be led by quarterback Ian Book who last season as a junior was a force accounting for 38 touchdowns while throwing just six interceptions. Over Book’s final 4 games with Notre Dame last season the quarterback threw 14 touchdowns and did not have an interception. Wide receivers Avery Davis and Braden Lenzy return to lead the receiver corps, while Kyren Williams will be the lead running back behind what is considered the best offensive line in the country.

The Notre Dame defense must replace three top pass-rushers from last season and the new group will be led by Ade Ogundeji. The linebackers are led by returning stars Drew White and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, both had exceptional seasons in 2019. The defensive secondary lost it's two star safeties and a cornerback but Shawn Crawford is back and transfer Nick McLeod from North Carolina State well add excellent coverage abilities.

Recent Betting Trends

Duke is 1-4-1 ATS in it last 6
The OVER has cashed in 8 of the Blue Devils last 11
Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its last 5
The UNDER has cashed in 11 of the Irish’s last 16

Free NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -19.5

Notre Dame is expected to have one of the best overall teams in the nation fueled by its quarterback Ian Book. The Fighting Irish have one of the best if not the best offensive lines in the nation. Notre Dame has covered the number in each of its last five and has won each of its last 18 straight up at home. Duke has failed to cover five of its last six and has lost five of its last six SU. Final Score Prediction, Notre Dame Fighting Irish win and cover ATS 42-14.

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UL Monroe at Army 9/12/20 - College Football

The UL-Monroe Warhawks will visit Michie Stadium in West Point, New York on Saturday to take on the Army Black Knights. The UL-Monroe football program stopped its practices last week due to nine players having positive tests for covid-19 but are expected to resume practice on Monday. The Warhawks lost their defensive coordinator just 10 days prior to facing Army after Mike Collins stepped down prior to beginning his fifth season with UL-Monroe at DC. The Warhawks finished last season 5-7 overall and 4-4 in the Sun Belt Conference.

Quarterback Caleb Evans must be replaced and that responsibility will be taken over by Colby Suits but he must hold off transfer Jeremy Hunt who is a dual threat under center. The top running back returning from last season will be Josh Johnson who rushed for 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns. Josh Peterson is the best receiver at tight end returning from last season after making 43 receptions, while the top deep threat will be Perry Carter.

Army already started its season with a 42-0 rout of Middle Tennessee State on Saturday. Sandon McCoy led the Black Knights with three touchdown rushes in the first half. Quarterback Christian Anderson scored on a 24-yard run during the third quarter while Anthony Adkins added a fourth quarter touchdown for Army. The defense also played a role with Jon Rhattigan making a 43-yard pick-six.

Christian Andersen has thrown for just 28 yards after one game and also has 51 yards rushing and one touchdown. Tyrell Robinson is leading Army in rushing with 94 yards on just nine carries. Army rushed for 340 yards in its first week victory over Middle Tennessee State. The leading receiver for the Black Knights is Isaiah Austin with one reception for 18 yards.

Recent Betting Trends

UL-Monroe is 4-10 ATS in its last 14
The OVER has cashed in each of the Warhawks last 5
Army is 4-2 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 6 of the Black Knights last 9

Free NCAAF Pick: Army Black Knights -22

Army looked very strong in its opening game rout of Middle Tennessee State. The Black Knights vaunted rushing attack rolled up 340 yards on the ground. Army has covered the number in four of its last six and in five of its last six during September. The Black Knights have won 17 of the last 19 straight up at home. UL-Monroe has failed to cover in four of its last six and has lost six of its last seven SU on the road. Final Score Prediction, Army Black Knights win and cover ATS 47-7.

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The Citadel at South Florida 9/12/20 - College Football

The Citadel Bulldogs visit Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Saturday to play the South Florida Bulls. The Citadel finished last season 6-6 after losing each of their final two games to Wolford and Chattanooga after winning four straight during October and the first week of November. Returning at quarterback for the Citadel to lead the offense will be Brandon Rainey, who passed for 1,114 yards, 13 touchdowns in 4 interceptions in 2019. Rainey was also the leading rusher for the Bulldogs with 897 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Returning linebacker Sean Thomas Faulkner will lead the defense this season for The Citadel, while sophomore defensive back Destin Mack returns and will be the leader of the secondary. Junior defensive lineman Aaron Brawley is the top interior lineman on the defense returning for the Bulldogs, while Freshman Hasan Black is expected to make an immediate impact for The Citadel at defensive end.

Last season South Florida finished 5-7 overall and 2-6 in the American Athletic Conference. South Florida's offense was 112th last season in the nation, but Jeff Scott who was co-Offensive Coordinator for Clemson takes over at USF. Jordan McCloud is expected to start at quarterback, but transfer Cade Fortin from North Carolina will push to take over the position early. Randall St. Felix and Bryce Miller combined last season for 43 receptions and six touchdowns in 2019 both returns in 2020. Johnny Ford and speedster Kelly Joyner will be the two top running backs for South Florida behind an offensive line that will average nearly 320 pounds per lineman.

Defensively South Florida will be led by its linebacker corps and in particular Dwayne Boyles who has great speed but lacks in weight at just 227 pounds. Antonio Greer will be the top outside linebacker for the Bulls. Defensive tackles Blake Green and Rashawn Yates will anchor the interior line while Nick Roberts returns to give the defensive secondary leadership and will be joined by cornerbacks Mike Hampton and KJ Sails.

Recent Betting Trends

The Citadel is 2-18 SU in its last 20
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Bulldogs last 7
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Bulls last 6

Free NCAAF Pick: South Florida Bulls -20.5

South Florida has new coaches on both sides of the ball at offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator and both are expected to make big changes for the Bulls. South Florida has covered the number in each of its last five played during Week 2 and the Bulls are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games played during September. The Citadel on the other hand has lost 20 of its last 21 games SU played during September. Final Score Prediction, South Florida Bulls win and cover ATS 47-6.

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Eastern Kentucky at WVU 9/12/20 - College Football

Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium will play host to a Saturday afternoon college football game between the Eastern Kentucky Colonels and the West Virginia Mountaineers. Last weekend, Eastern Kentucky trailed by 38 points at halftime during a 59-0 road loss at Marshall. The Colonels (0-1) were outgained by a 627-166 margin on the afternoon.

Parker McKinney completed seven of his ten passes for 71 yards and an interception. Quentin Pringle and Alonzo Booth combined for 72 yards rushing on 21 carries.

The West Virginia Mountaineers enter the 2020 campaign looking to take significant steps forward for second year head coach Neal Brown. Last year, West Virginia lost seven games and failed to qualify for a bowl game but did defeat TCU in their final regular season game. In July, the Mountaineers parted ways with defensive coordinator Vic Koenning following an investigation of player misconduct.

The West Virginia offense needs to make the biggest strides in the running game, after averaging just 73 yards on the ground a season ago. WR Sam Jones (69 rec) returns as the top option through the air for the Mountaineers.

Recent Betting Trends

Eastern Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Eastern Kentucky is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Eastern Kentucky's last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 5 games.

Free NCAAF Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers -41.5

This will be an incredibly difficult spot for Eastern Kentucky after being destroyed by Marshall last week. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and their offense will want to get off to a fast start. Take the Mountaineers to run away and cover at home. Final Score Prediction, West Virginia Mountaineers 52-7.

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Louisiana at Iowa State 9/12/20 - College Football

The Saturday college football slate of games will kickoff with a matchup between the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns and the Iowa State Cyclones from Jack Trice Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns won 11 games last season and lost to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship game by a 45-38 final score. Louisiana ended their season on a positive note with a 27-17 victory against Miami Ohio in the Lending Tree Bowl.

Senior QB Levi Lewis (26 TD) returns to lead an offense that ranked top ten nationally in total yards and points. Running backs Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell have combined to rush for more than 5,000 yards in their careers.

Fourth year head coach Matt Campbell leads the Iowa State Cyclones into the 2020 campaign looking to improve on last year’s 7-6 mark. Iowa State’s biggest victory last season came at home versus Texas by a 23-21 final score. The Cyclones finished third in the Big 12 standings and think they have what it takes to challenge for a spot in the conference championship game.

Junior QB Brock Purdy has set 21 school records and averaged 306 yards through the air last season. Purdy will lean heavily on a trio of tight ends that combined for close to 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns.

Recent Betting Trends

Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
Under is 7-2 in Ragin' Cajuns last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-2-1 in Cyclones last 10 non-conference games.
Under is 23-9-1 in Cyclones last 33 games as a home favorite.

Free NCAAF Pick: Iowa State Cyclones -11.5

Louisiana is one of the best Group of Five teams in the country and should win the Sun Belt Conference title. However, a trip to Iowa State will prove to be too much of a challenge in the season opener. Take the Cyclones to win and cover at home. Final Score Prediction, Iowa State Cyclones win and cover ATS 36-17.

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Syracuse at North Carolina 9/12/20 - College Football

ACC Conference foes will square off on Saturday afternoon, when the Syracuse Orange visit Kenan Stadium to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Orange are coming off a disappointing season that saw them lose eight of their conference games and fail to appear in a bowl game. Junior QB Tommy DeVito after being the most sacked player a season ago.

On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse will transition to a 3-35 scheme for new coordinator Tony White, who came over from Arizona State. Junior safety Andre Cisco is the active FBS leader in interceptions (12) and will be counted on heavily.

It did not take head coach Mack Brown long to turn the North Carolina football program around. The Tar Heels enter the season ranked 18th in the nation and have a Top-20 recruiting class. North Carolina split their eight ACC Conference games a season ago and finished their campaign with a 55-13 thrashing of Temple in the Military Bowl.

The Tar Heels ranked second in the ACC with 474 yards of total offense and they return sophomore QB Sam Howell, who threw for a school record 38 touchdown passes. RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams are also back after combining to rush for just shy of 2,000 yards last year.

Recent Betting Trends

Syracuse is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
Syracuse is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
North Carolina is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of North Carolina's last 14 games at home.

Free NCAAF Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -23

These two teams did not play against each other last season and Syracuse has won three of the five all-time matchups. The Orange have plenty of transition with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Look for the Tar Heels to make a strong statement in their home opener. Final Score Prediction, North Carolina Tar Heels win and cover easily ATS 45-17.

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Louisiana Tech at Baylor 9/12/20 - College Football

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs visit McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas on Saturday to play the Baylor Bears. Last season, Louisiana Tech was 10-3 overall and 6-2 in the Conference USA. The Bulldogs must replace J’Mar Smith at quarterback and Aaron Allen is expected to step in. Justin Anderson returns at running back after rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019. Although the top wide receiver from last season Malik Stanley is gone, the next five best receivers all return led by Griffin Hebert and Isaiah Graham.

The defense lost eight of its top eleven tacklers from last season but will be led by Ezekiel Barnett who returns at linebacker after making 59 tackles last season. Willie Baker will add size to the linebacker corps. Safety L’Jarius Sneed returns but the other four players who started last season in the secondary must be replaced. The defensive line lost two of its three starters from last season but will be led by Milton Williams.

Baylor was 11-3 overall and 8-1 in the Big 12 during 2019. Gerry Bohanon played well late in the season at quarterback in place of Charlie Brewer and nearly upset Oklahoma to win the Big 12 title. RJ Sneed and Tyquan Thornton are the top returning receivers for the Bears, while John Lovett is the top returning running back. The offensive line returns four starters with Xavier Newman-Johnson at guard the top player.

On defense, the line is young with transfer William Bradley-King expected to anchor the front four. Terrel Bernard will lead the linebackers but expect instant impact from freshman Matt Jones and returning ‘backer Jalen Pitre. The secondary will be led by Raleigh Texada who is a tough cornerback while Christian Morgan, Jairon McVea and JT Woods will all play big roles.

Recent Betting Trends

Louisiana Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last 8
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Bulldogs last 5
Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Bears last 5

Free NCAAF Pick: Baylor Bears -18.5

Baylor has a far better football program at this point in time then does Louisiana Tech. The Bears have covered the number and five of the last six and Baylor has won 13 of its last 16 straight up and eight of its last 11 SU versus an opponent from the Conference USA. Louisiana Tech lost several of its players on both sides of the ball from last season and are 0-11 SU in their last 11 versus a Big 12 Conference opponent. FInal Score Prediction, Baylor Bears win and cover ATS 38-14.

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Charlotte at Appalachian State 9/12/20 - College Football

The Charlotte 49ers visit Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina on Saturday to play the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Charlotte finished last season 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the Conference USA. Quarterback Chris Reynolds who threw for 2,564 yards returns. Senior Aaron McAllister will lead the running game for the 49ers and last season rushed for 380 yards and five touchdowns, but transfer Tre Harbison could pressure McAllister from the start for playing time. Each of the top three wide receivers for Charlotte return to what should be a potent offense.

Defensively, Charlotte allowed 22 points or less in five of 13 games last season and were victorious in each of those five games. Tyriq Harris, who missed all of last season with an injury, returns as does Timmy Horne to give the 49ers a strong interior line. Safety Ben DeLuca also returns from an injury and will secure the defensive secondary while transfer Antone Williams from Duke will play a prominent role as well.

Appalachian State was 13-1 overall and 7-1 in the Sun Belt last season. The offense in 2019 averaged 433 yards per game and was ninth in the nation in scoring with an average of 39 points per game. Zac Thomas returns at quarterback after passing for 2,718 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Marcus Williams will step in at running back after last season rushing for 652 yards and five TDs. The offensive line has four starters returning from last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Appalachian State lost each of its top five tacklers from last season for a defense that allowed just 20 points per game and 336 yards. The secondary, which allowed only 207 yards passing per game last season, lost two starters. The linebackers corps must make up for the loss of two of the top three tacklers at that position and this season will be led by D’Marco Jackson.The defensive line has Demetrius Taylor and Elijah Diarrassouba returning, but must replace EJ Scott.

Recent Betting Trends

Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the 49ers last 5
Appalachian State is 10-5 in its last 15
The OVER has cashed in each of the Mountaineers last 7 in September

Free NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers -17

Appalachian State will once again have a title-contending team in the Sun Belt Conference although several players on the defense must be replaced. The Mountaineers have covered the number in 10 of their last 15 overall and have won each of their last 10 straight up at home. Charlotte on the other hand has lost 16 of its last 18 SU on the road. Final Score Prediction, Appalachian State Mountaineers win and cover ATS 40-12.

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College Football
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES VS. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Arkansas State Win +10.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 54.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
It is safe to say that Arkansas State may have a little bit of an advantage here, having played last week against Memphis. They did not win that game, but they had success moving the ball at times and were able to cover the spread rather easily. Against the Tigers, the Red Wolves did most of their damage through the air. They threw for 299 yards, while rushing for just 125 yards. Their defense definitely did not look great, allowing 280 yards through the air and 222 yards on the ground.

The Wildcats are coming off a decent season at best and one where they finished 8-5 with their biggest win coming against Oklahoma. It was still a disappointing end to the year as they were beat by Navy in their bowl game. The Wildcats were not necessarily great at any aspect last season, failing to rank inside the top 30 in any of the major categories. Their passing defense could be deemed as their biggest defensive strength, having allowed an average of 202.9 yards per game, which ranked 33rd. That is good news for Kansas State considering Arkansas State can be a prolific passing offense.

It will be Kansas State’s turn to play with some rust, so I could easily see the Red Wolves jumping out to an early lead. This Wildcats’ offense can be inconsistent, so I am going to take Arkansas State to keep this game within double-digits.


Game Totals Pick
The total stayed under in the first game for the Red Wolves, then again, that total was set around 71-73. Now with a more defensive minded team like the Wildcats, scoring could be a little bit more of an issue. We know that the Red Wolves got run over against the Tigers, but Kansas State is certainly not as explosive on the offensive side of the ball. They will likely try to establish the run, knowing that it is the main weakness for Arkansas State. This will help burn the clock, making an under more likely. Plus, Kansas State can really frustrate the Red Wolves passing offense with their secondary and try to force them to run more often. Because Kansas State can counter an up-tempo team like the Red Wolves, I will lean to the under here.

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College Football
EASTERN KENTUCKY COLONELS VS. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Eastern Kentucky +40.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 55.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
This is another instance where one of these have played a game already (Eastern Kentucky) and the other will open their season here (West Virginia). Though Eastern Kentucky basically did not show up for that opening game, losing 59-0 to the Marshall Thundering Herd. The Colonels had a total of 166 yards of offense in this game, while they allowed 627 yards, 345 yards through the air and 282 yards on the ground. The good news is that West Virginia is very anemic on offense, meaning this game could probably be closer.

Now West Virginia was nothing special in 2019, finishing with a record of 5-7. This was more of a transition year as Neal Brown took over the coaching duties. Therefore, now that he has had an off-season to recruit, I am expecting the Mountaineers to be more competitive. Especially at scoring the football as the Mountaineers averaged 20.6 points per game. That was among the worst in the entire country. Their defense was not great either, having allowed 28.8 points per game. Nothing stands out in terms of their offensive abilities, except for maybe their horrible rushing attack, that averaged 73.3 yards per game a year ago.

Surely Eastern Kentucky cannot repeat that bad of a performance against the Mountaineers. So while West Virginia is almost guaranteed to win the game, there is absolutely no way I would back them to win by more than 40 points. As a result, I will back to Colonels to actually show up this time and do enough to keep it within seven touchdowns.


Game Totals Pick
The total is harder to predict because we certainly do not have good offenses taking the field in this game. As we know, the Colonels were shut out in week one and the Mountaineers were one of the worst offenses last season. West Virginia managed to score more than 30 points twice last season, and while they might be facing the worst defense I have seen so far this season, I still do not trust them to do everything by themselves. I will say that the Mountaineers’ were allowing points in bunches last season, so the Colonels might even be able to score a touchdown or two. I would probably stay away from this total however, because we just do not know how Eastern Kentucky is going to respond and how West Virginia will come out in their second season under Neal Brown. In the end, I will hesitantly back the under because I do not trust the Mountaineers to score all that much this season, regardless of who they play.

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College Football
SYRACUSE ORANGE VS. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Syracuse Win +23.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 65.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
The season opener for these teams is extremely important with it being an ACC game. The Orange went 5-7 last year, while the Tar Heels went 7-6 under Mack Brown. This season looks to be promising for North Carolina with their returning quarterback, Sam Howell, under center. Howell threw for 3,647 yards last season, 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Their offense averaged 33.1 points last season, ranking 30th in the country. Their main strength was the passing game, where they averaged 285.8 yards per game compared to 188.2 rushing yards. Defense was an issue at times, allowing about 23.7 points per game, 143.5 rushing yards per game and 229.6 passing yards.

The Orange have a ton of questions to start the season after a poor 2019. Their offense was decent at best last season, averaging 28.3 points per game, ranking 69th in the country. Tommy Devito will likely be under center again, throwing for 2,360 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions last year. They averaged 240.6 passing yards per game and 154 rushing yards per game in 2019, ranking 60th and 71st respectively. Defensively the Orange were poor in basically every area. Pass defense ranking 110th in the country, rush defense ranking 109th. They also allowed 30.7 points per game last season, ranking 88th.

As bad as I have just talked about the Orange, this spread just feels way too high. We have already seen teams as big underdogs cover through just one week. The Tar Heels are by far the better team, but I do not think this is the game where they will win by more than three touchdowns. North Carolina only won three games by 23+ points last season, one of those being against Mercer, one being against their in-state rivals and the last being in a bowl game against Temple. Coach Mack does not seem like the type to run up a score, so it would be a lean, but I will look for Syracuse to cover.


Game Totals Pick
The total is set extremely high in this game, but again, I am not ready to run and bet a high scoring game. Given the circumstances of this season, I think fatigue could play a factor. I could also see a little bit of rust for both sides, having not had the same spring as they are used to. There is also no point in running up the score if this game gets out of hand by the second half. Last season, North Carolina had 10 of their 13 games stay under 65.5 points, while Syracuse saw seven of their 12 games stay under this point total. The Tar Heels defense is expected to improve this season, so I will look for them to slow down the Orange enough to keep this one fairly low scoring.

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Football Jesus texted FLORIDA STATE -pts a Replacement Free pick

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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

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September 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Woodbine Mohawk Park has a stake heavy 13-race card set to go. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

1-Lauras Love (2-1)-Did get bothered in the lane last week but the winner was probably not to be denied anyway. Program chalk is a serious threat and drawing the rail shouldn't hurt chances.
4-Karma Seelster (3-1)-Still looking for 1st win since adding Lasix back on 7/17. Has been competitive but is only 1-16 here. Using at a fair price and may benefit from a pocket trip and roll by late.
6-Perfect Storm (7/2)-Will need a slick drive to win but that isn't out of the question with Henry in the bike. Does like the track hitting the board in 9 of 14 starts with 5 wins, best to not overlook.

Race 5

7-Donna Soprano (7/5)-Winner of 4 straight was the odds-on choice in last 2 and has looked the part. McClure has options as this filly appears to be a cut above the rest and is probably a decent trip away from another picture.

Race 6

2-Voelz Delight (7/2)-Seems to be on the improve although couldn't seal the deal in last but it wasn't a great trip. Gets post relief and Filion should have an easier path toward a well-timed move than from the 7-hole at GrVr. Has hit the board in all 3 starts here and has a win over this surface.
3-Scarlet Hanover (2-1)-Big effort for another Grand River win and should be bet down off that effort. Best to respect but is 0-3 at Mohawk and won't offer any value. Using but will look to others to punch up the Pick 4 payout.
5-Twin Be Sunkissed (6-1)-Broke maiden in last at GrVr and had an nice try from the 7-hole at Wbsb to come 2nd on 8/29 in the Eternal Camnation. Sunshine Beach filly is getting better and if pace is hot JMac will be rolling late at a nice price.

Race 7

2-HP Napolean (5/2)-4-year-old takes a good drop in class and should have no excuse as long as Filion works a decent trip. Beat better here on 7/4 and this is a spot to shine but is only 5 for 39 at Mohawk.
4-The Downtown Bus (3-1)-Took a big drop to this level in last and came up short. Is winless in 6 tries this year but had been facing better. McClure steers again, this could be wake-up time and has won 8 in 25 starts here.

$1 Early Pick 4

1,4,6/7/2,3,5/2,4
Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 9/12/20

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September 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays
Saturday, September 12, 2020
(Listed in chronological order)
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Monmouth Park – 5th race. Post time 2:29 ET
3 – Queen Street (4-1)

Debuting daughter of Speightster trained like a very quick filly at Saratoga but didn’t quite make the meeting so she shows up in a maiden special weight sprint at Monmouth Park that should be well within her capabilities. The C. Brown-trained juvenile, a $90,000 OBS March sale purchase after previewing in 10 1/5 seconds, seems fit and ready for a major effort first time out, so let’s use her as a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1.

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Kentucky Downs – 7th race. Post: 3:27 CT
3 – Tapit Today (5-1)

Had a right to be a tad short when a close fourth in the Matchmaker S.-G3 in first start in five months when last seen in July and returns in a similar type race while projecting to enjoy an easy pace-stalking trip. Though she missed a scheduled start a couple of weeks ago in the Eatontown S. at Monmouth Park when the race came off the grass, the lightly-raced daughter of Tapit sports a healthy series of recent drills that should have her primed and ready. With rising speed figures in each outing, the C. Brown-trained mare has a chance to upset her stable mate Regal Glory (the 9/5 morning line favorite) , so at 5-1 on the morning line she may offer value in the win pool and in the vertical and horizontal exotics.

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Gulfstream Park – 10th race. Post time 4:48 ET
9 - Isolate (5/2)

Juvenile colt in the K. Ritvo barn should have won by much more than official three-quarters of a length margin of victory over the local main track in his visually pleasing debut early August. Was forced to check sharply in traffic into the turn, remained behind a wall of horses entering the lane, then displayed moxie when rallying between horses to be up in time while earning a fairly decent speed figure for a 2-year-old. Comfortably drawn outside in this first-level allowance sprint, the son of Mark Valeski should have clear sailing throughout and will offer good value right back at or near his morning line of 5/2.

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Golden Gate Fields – 6th race. Post time 3:45 PT
1 – A Little Bit Lucky (7/2)

Cruised to an easy victory in his debut over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface in June and then finished well but too late to be a respectable fifth in a stakes race for 2-year-olds at Pleasanton the following month. Dropping into a much softer starter’s allowance sprint over a surface we know he likes, the E. Miranda-trained juvenile projects be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance in race that seems unlikely to have quick early fractions. Today’s extra half-furlong won’t hurt his chances, either. There’s good value to be found at his morning line of 7/2 if you can get it.

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Golden Gate Fields – 7th race. Post time 4:15 PT
3 – Alice Marble (6-1)

Though finishing a non-threatening ninth, this daughter of Grazen ran far better than the line will show when finishing fastest of all (and galloping out in front) in her debut in June at Santa Anita in a fairly competitive maiden special weight sprint on turf. Was entered but scratched at Del Mar in early August and finally makes it back to the races for clever S. Miyadi, who has been on a tear of late in the Bay Area. With the barn’s “go to” rider A. Gomez taking the call, this state-bred 3-year-old filly is listed at 6-1 on the morning and has a chance to pull off an upset if she leaves with field and finds room to rally from the quarter pole home.

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Golden Gate Fields – 8th race. Post time 4:45 PT
1 – Emerald Magic (6-1)

Added blinkers for the first time in his 11-race career and ran lights out when narrowly missing at 65-1 in a tough starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar last month, earning by far a career top speed figure while winding up almost three lengths clear of the rest. Returns to his home base where he’s a two-time winner over the Tapeta surface, and with a clean break from the rail and a repeat of his most recent outing he may be good enough to pull off a mild surprise in this first-level allowance affair at 6-1 on the morning line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Woodbine - Race #8

Picks	Notes
#5 Pseudonym	Intriguing GP invader broke through last time for Joseph, who isn't shipping this far without purpose, and off that confidence builder, she could be primed for a biggie; upset special.
#2 Afleet Katherine	Odds-on favorite was 2nd in the local Oaks with a huge figure, so she'll be tough here, but that was eons her best lifetime effort, so she could bounce, at tiny odds too; backwheel time.
#1 Ballroom of Mars	Improving miss was a good 2nd last time and now adds blinkers, and while she's still a maiden, CDP doesn't run them where they don't belong, and the price will be right; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the 5, most notably her win last time and her price this time, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the first guaranteed 200k Pk5, and to kick off the second one as well, since the 2 will be keyed on a large majority of the tickets, but she could regress off the big Oaks run, and if the pick does improve, they could be meeting right in the middle, which means a win would go a long way to blowing both sequences up.

Woodbine - Race #9

Picks	Notes
#3 Elizabeth Way	Pace presser did well to draw outside the speed of the 1, and while that miss wired her last time, this cutback should help her, she fits nicely on paper, and she could fall through the wagering cracks too, while catching a favorite who may need one; look out.
#10 Cambier Parc	Stiff ML chalk will be bet off the board for Brown, and she's a G1 winner too, but that was against only 3yo fillies, she hasn't been out since last October, and she's also prepping for the G1 here next time, so there are some warning signals; trying to beat on top.
#6 Amalfi Coast	Major player is 2-for-4 over the course, so while she's done her best running of late on the Tapeta, she has plenty of form to play with these, and that 6-1 ML would be a square price if you can get it, and note that gaudy $3.75 ROI when Attard uses Stein; using.
Race Summary	The race flow should really work for the 3, who can get first run on the 10 and could be the controlling speed herself if the 1 comes out, so play her in all the slots, and especially in both guaranteed 200k Pk5s, since the chalk will be singled on a lot of tickets, even though today very likely isn't the one they are primed for.

Woodbine - Race #10

Picks	Notes
#6 Halo Again	Price player was a good 2nd in the local Plate Trial and seems to be on the upswing, and his running style will have him close to the pace, and give him first run on the top duo too, which might be enough to hold on late; can surprise.
#10 Curlin's Voyage	Stretch running filly looked good winning the Oaks with a big figure, and the gals have done well in the Plate of late, but the price will be on the short side, and the pick seems to be improving, so let's make her prove it right back; second-best.
#12 Clayton	ML favorite beat the pick on the square last time in the Trial and will be a handful here, but his form has seemed to hit a peak, so you wonder if he can move forward again, not to mention this 1 1/4-mile trip could be the leveler; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The upside of the 6 says he might have enough to turn the tables on the 12 and hold off the 10, and the risk-reward will be there too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in both guaranteed 200k Pk5s, and to kick off the 350k guaranteed late Pk4 as well, as budget players likely won't be covering his number, which means a win over the two heavy favorites will add plenty of value to all three sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #4

Picks	Notes
#4 My Queen Michelle	I'm willing to forgive the run over the off track off the layoff in hopes that she can get back on dry land and produce one of her better races. 4/1 ML price feels fair.
#1 Gifted Heart	Drops after the fading try in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks, and she has a right to do much better while getting back on a local footing she loves.
#3 Limited View	Much like the top choice, this one has never been much in the off going and figures to bounce back with something better today.
Race Summary	My Queen Michelle owns back efforts that would do the trick here, and she should be finishing late at a fair price.

Laurel Park - Race #6

Picks	Notes
#4 The Cairo Kid	Should be able to get the jump on his main competition, and his recent form has been heading in the right direction. Blinkers didn't seem to hurt last out.
#5 Point Driven	Lands in a softer spot today after trying maidens at Saratoga, and he's a bit interesting as a first time gelding this time around.
#7 Joycee Has Pizzaz	Went to Saratoga for the debut run and didn't show much at 42/1, but this is clearly an easier group than he faced that day, so it wouldn't surprise to see him wake up with the locals.
Race Summary	The Cairo Kid steps back into maiden company off a nice first effort with blinkers last out, and his recent dirt form is pretty reliable and competitive with these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

Picks	Notes
#4 BETALADY	Determined rally to nip odds-on fave, value remains with second-time Lasix.
#5 LADY LOU	Ran second in $400,000 stake to undefeated foe, strictly the one to beat.
#7 ALICORN	Set fast pace, faltered in lane, can control things better in here.
Race Summary	Betalady followed the 1-to-5 favorite through a single-file opening half mile and caught up near the wire after the duo trailed the field into the stretch. She gets second-time Lasix and the call to knock off another short-priced fave in Lady Lou.

Hoosier Park - Race #1

Picks	Notes
#4 AHDOUGHNOLUM	Duplicate of race two starts ago could produce 35th victory.
#2 SADIES ART	Raced closer to pace from similar post, notched 24th win.
#5 CARDIAC FASHION	Been close up until stretch against weaker foes, claimed by trainer-driver.
Race Summary	Ahdoughnolum, the victim of broken equipment last week, bounced back from a ‘lame’ excuse two starts back with a solid effort. He made a middle move past the odds-on favorite but couldn’t hold off the deep closers. Play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #2

Picks	Notes
#9 DE LOS CIELO DEO	Slowed by traffic, closed with a rush for second, today’s Best Bet.
#1 MY ALPHA ROCK N	Encouraging qualifier for hot barn after three weeks away.
#5 ITALIAN DELIGHT	Just missed from on and off the pace in a tougher condition.
Race Summary	De Los Cielo Deo advanced inside in the third quarter but ran into traffic and was shuffled on the final turn. He swung 5-wide in mid-stretch and closed with a flourish to just miss in 1:49.2. Play 9-5 and 9-1 exactas.