Saturday 9/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #9

Picks	Notes
#3 Prince of Arabia	Ran evenly for third in the Rich Lee Stakes at 1 3-8 miles last time and turns back to 1 1-8th miles; solid player on the grass.
#5 Donji	Takes a step up off a second in an optional claiming race; likely close to the lead this time.
#7 Rocket Joe Copper	Was second in his last two and comes out of races that had fast fractions; he could very well be on the lead today.
Race Summary	Prince of Arabia is the class of this outfit and can make a strong late move for the victory.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

Picks	Notes
#9 Isolate	Has a relaxed trip just off the lead and can on for the win in his only start; has twice worked since his last start and can repeat.
#7 Just Right Mike	Was a clear winner in May and figures to be on the front end of this one; a repeat win is not out of the question.
#6 Swaggy George	Was an easy winner in a race that came off the turf; was sharp in his only start and has some outstanding works lately.
Race Summary	Isolate was up in time and can adjust to the pace here; finished well last time and is set to make another strong run through the stretch.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

Picks	Notes
#1 Choose Joy	Was very impressive in her only start, which came last October at GP West; battled every jump and drew off. Will be reunited with hot-riding Vasquez.
#3 Cory Gal	Was an easy winner in her first off the claim for Dibona; has done plenty of good and will get plenty of support here.
#6 Baccarat Fashion	Was runner-up to Cory Gal last time but beat her two races back; has a good closing move on occasion and fits in here.
Race Summary	Choose Joy is the upset choice over Cory Gal and Baccarat Fashion as she makes just her second career start. Has good works for Dwoskin, and this Munnings filly will put herself into the game at once.

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College Football
DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Duke Win +20.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 54.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
The 2020 season has brought all sorts of weird things, one being Notre Dame joining the ACC for this season. Now it will be considered an all-important conference game, whereas it would be normally be a non-conference battle. The Fighting Irish had another good season in 2019 going 11-2, but it still only resulted in a decent bowl game. Notre Dame ranked in the top 50 in a multitude of stats, at least on the offensive side. They scored 36.8 points per game, which was 13th. They were relatively well balanced, averaging 252.2 passing yards and 179.2 rushing yards per game. Where they excelled more was on the defensive end. Allowing 17.9 points per game gave them the 12th best scoring defense in the country. They were the 3rd ranked passing defense, allowing 168.5 yards per game through the air. Stopping the run was their only issue, allowing 153.1 yards per game.

The Blue Devils had a rough year after Daniel Jones departed, going 5-7 in 2019. Their main issue was their lack of offense, which ranked 114th in the country in total yards gained per game. Especially their passing offense, which ranked 110th in the country. The lack of passing offense meant they only scored 25.3 points per game, ranking 94th. That should improve this season as former Clemson backup, Chase Brice will take over as the starter at Duke against Notre Dame. Their defense also looks to be an issue as they allowed 29.2 points per game last season. Their passing defense was top 25 however, which should help them slow down the Fighting Irish this season.

With the addition of Brice, there is no doubt that Duke will be more of a threat offensively. I think they will be able to move the ball relatively well, so I will lean to the Duke cover here.


Game Totals Pick
The total may be the stronger play here as it has been reported that there is a 35% chance of rain and wind blowing at 10 miles per hour. Even with Brice under center for the Blue Devils, I would expect a rather slow start considering this is his first live game with a new team. Frankly, I do not see the Fighting Irish having as much success as they did last year because I think Duke will have the ball for longer periods of time. I could see this game being extremely close for the first half as the teams feel each other out in this new season. By the second half, it is likely that Notre Dame will start to wear down this Duke defense and start to pull away. Still, given the potential conditions, I do not want to back points in this game. Especially with the defense Notre Dame is expected to field. I will look for a score like 28-17, and will back the under with medium confidence.

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College Football
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS VS. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Georgia Tech Win +12.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 52.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Florida State is looking to return to the top of the ACC, but we’re not expecting them to suddenly shoot up the standings. The Seminoles are now on their third coach in four years after hiring Mike Norvell this offseason, and he’ll be tasked with turning around a program that hasn’t finished above .500 in the ACC since 2016. Florida State might be able to exceed that mark in 2020; the team has one of the conference’s best defenders in defensive tackle Marvin Williams, and junior quarterback James Blackman will once again be under center. It’s this tiny bit of consistency that led Florida State to a seventh-place ACC ranking in the preseason coaches poll.

The team Florida State is facing on Saturday finished last in that poll. Georgia Tech was an ugly 3-9 (2-6 against ACC foes) in 2019, so it wasn’t a huge surprise when they were picked to finish in last place. While we’re not expecting much out of the Yellow Jackets in 2020, there’s some reasons for optimism on Saturday. Georgia Tech is 10-14-1 all-time against Florida State, and they won their most recent meeting and three of their last five. We’re not saying Georgia Tech will win, but we suspect they’ll hang around. It’s a bit of a risk, but we’ll take Yellow Jackets against the spread.


Game Totals Pick
Thanks in part to a porous defense, Georgia Tech saw the total go over more often than not during the 2019 campaign. The total went over in six of their final eight games, and it went over in seven of their final eight road contests. Best of all, the total has gone over in seven of their last nine contests against ACC opponents. Considering Florida State’s offensive familiarity (and questionable defense), we could see this continuing on Saturday.


There are some similar trends on the other side, as the total has gone over in four of Florida State’s last six September games. Plus, let’s not forget that the Seminoles defense allowed 25.1 points per game over their last 10 contests of the 2019 campaign. Georgia Tech averaged 17.2 points per game over that same span, and that includes a pair of losses where they scored a combined two points. We’ll see points on the board on Saturday…we’re taking the over.

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College Football
CLEMSON @ WAKE FOREST

PICKS

Clemson Win -33.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 60.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Clemson is coming off of a devastating loss in the National Championship, but they are coming back strong into this season. They are looking for an easy, confidence boosting game to start the year. The Clemson offense has Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, so they will have the potential to score 50 against any team in any given game. Clemson was 10-2 ATS last year while favored by 24+ points. They are also 5-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points covering by an average of 6.6 PPG. Last season, Clemson beat Wake Forest by 49 points. Wake Forest has only gotten worse from last year. Quarterback Jamie Newman transferred before deciding to opt out, so the fact that they had the 20th best offense last year does not translate into this year. Wake Forest went 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games last season. Dabo Sweeny is the best coach in the nation. It’s hard to fade this Clemson team. Expect Clemson to fully dominate this game on both sides of the ball and cover easily.


Game Totals Pick
Last season, Clemson had the 4th best scoring offense scoring 46.5 PPG. Clemson also had the number 1 scoring defense only allowing 10.6 PPG. Wake Forest had a fun offense last year scoring 32.8 PPG but a bad defense allowing 29.3 PPG. Clemson should be able to score 50+ on this weak Wake Forest defense. With a late game garbage time touchdown by Wake Forest, this game should hit over 60 points. Expect around 63-70 points in this blowout game.

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College Football
HOUSTON BAPTIST @ TEXAS TECH

PICKS

Houston Baptist +39.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 74.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Houston Baptist has not lost a game by 40 points since October 14th, 2017, and Texas Tech has not won a game by 40 since September 8th, 2018. Texas Tech ended last year horribly, losing their last two games and failing to cover those games by an average of 9.75 points. Texas Tech had a dreadful defense last season allowing 30.3 PPG. Houston Baptist had a phenomenal offense last season averaging 49.3 PPG. This offense against Texas Tech’s horrible defense will be able to score. Houston Baptist will be able to score enough points to cover this spread easily.


Game Totals Pick
The over in Texas Tech’s last nine games last season went 6-1-2. Houston Baptist’s game last week against North Texas had 88 points. Both of these teams have really good offenses and really bad defenses. Texas Tech’s offense will dominate this Houston Baptist defense and their defense will not be able to hold back the Houston Baptist offense all game. This should result in a high scoring game that will be around 80-90 points. Expect a high paced, high scoring game and for the over easily.

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College Football
UTEP @ TEXAS

PICKS

UTEP Win +43.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 58.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Texas went 3-1 ATS in their last four games, and UTEP went 1-5 ATS in their last six games last year. UTEP beat SFA last week and covered by six points and played well on both sides of the ball. Texas has not won a game by 43 or more since September 9th, 2017, and UTEP has not lost a game by 43 or more since September 15th, 2017. Texas only had an average defense last year allowing 29 PPG. If UTEP can score just 10-14 points, they will cover this spread easily. UTEP averaged 19.6 PPG last season, so scoring 10-14 is not a stretch especially since the Texas defense is bad, and UTEP already has a game under their belt. Expect Texas to struggle a little too much on defense to cover such a large number.


Game Totals Pick
Texas has hit the over in seven out of twelve games last season, and UTEP has cashed the over in five out of their last seven games. These defenses are bad. UTEP allowed 36 PPG and Texas allowed 29 PPG last season. Texas’s offense was top 20 in D1 last season averaging 35 PPG. Texas should be able to put up 42-49 points on this horrible UTEP defense. UTEP averaged only 20 PPG last season, but in this game, 17-20 points should be enough to hit the over. Expect this game to be in the 60s and the over to cash because of these horrible defenses.

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College Football
WESTERN KENTUCKY @ LOUISVILLE

PICKS

Western Kentucky Win +12.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 57.5 Game Totals
+100

Point Spread Pick
Louisville went 4-5 ATS in their last 9 games last season while Western Kentucky went 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Louisville had a very poor defense last year allowing 33.8 PPG while Western Kentucky only allowed 20.1 PPG. Western Kentucky went 5-2 ATS last season as an underdog covering by 6.7 PPG. Louisville still has their three main offensive players in Micale Cunningham, Javian Hawkings, and Tutu Atwell. However, expect the Cardinals defense to let Western Kentucky stick around and the Hilltoppers defense to keep the game close and cover the spread.


Game Totals Pick
Western Kentucky is going to rely on their rushing offense and running back Gaej Walker to move the ball. Louisville allowed 211 rushing yards per game last season. Western Kentucky hit the over in four of their last six games and Louisville has hit the over in each of their last five games. Western Kentucky will be able to score against a lackluster Louisville defense and the Cardinals have enough offensive power to score on any defense. Expect both teams to be able to score and for the game to hit the over.

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College Football
COASTAL CAROLINA @ KANSAS

PICKS

Coastal Carolina Win Money Line
+195

Over 56.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
Kansas went 1-7 straight up in their last eight games last season, including a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina. Kansas has a very poor offense only scoring 23.5 PPG while Coastal Carolina scored 30.3 PPG. Both of these defenses are horrible, letting up 36.1 and 30.5 PPG respectively. Coastal Carolina will be able to move the ball easily, and Kansas will have a much harder time passing the ball and scoring. Coastal Carolina had the 60th best passing defense in D1 only allowing 223 YPG last season. Coastal Carolina has a lot of value in this game at +195. Expect Coastal Carolina to win a tight, high scoring game.


Game Totals Pick
Both of these teams have very high scoring games with an average Coastal Carolina game having 60.8 points and an average Kansas game having 59.6 points last season. Coastal Carolina hit the over in six out of their last ten games last season while Kansas hit the over in seven of their last ten games. Both of these teams are good at offense and bad at defense. This has the over written all over it. Expect around 65 points in this high paced game.

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EASTERN KENTUCKY COLONELS VS. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
The fans at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium will be treated to a game between the Eastern Kentucky Colonels and the West Virginia Mountaineers when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Mountaineers as -34.5-point favorites versus the Colonels, while the game's total opened at 55.5.

Last time out for West Virginia, they were a 20-17 winner as they battled Horned Frogs on the road. West Virginia covered in the match as a +13.5-point underdog, while 37 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Eastern Kentucky lost its last outing, a 59-0 result against Thundering Herd on September 05. Eastern Kentucky failed to cover in that game as a +25.5-point underdog, while the 59 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Next up:
Eastern Kentucky at Troy Saturday, October 17
West Virginia at Oklahoma State Saturday, September 26

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SYRACUSE ORANGE VS. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
The Syracuse Orange and the North Carolina Tar Heels will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Kenan Memorial Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Tar Heels as -15-point favorites versus the Orange, while the game's total opened at 60.

Last time out for North Carolina, they were a 55-13 winner as they battled Owls on the road. North Carolina covered in the match as a -6-point favorite, while 68 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.

Syracuse won its last outing, a 39-30 result against Demon Deacons on November 30. Syracuse covered in that game as a +6-point underdog, while the 69 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Next up:
Syracuse at Pittsburgh Saturday, September 19
North Carolina home to Charlotte Saturday, September 19

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ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES VS. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
The fans at Bill Snyder Family Stadium will be treated to a game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Kansas State Wildcats when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Wildcats as -12-point favorites versus the Red Wolves, while the game's total opened at 59.

Kansas State was a 20-17 loser in their most recent outing at home against Midshipmen. They failed to cover the +1.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (37) made winners of UNDER bettors.

Arkansas State was a 37-24 loser in its last match on the road against Tigers. They covered the +18-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 61 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Arkansas State:
Team record: 0-1 SU,1-0 ATS
Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Arkansas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Arkansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Next up:
Arkansas State home to Central Arkansas Saturday, September 19
Kansas State at Oklahoma Saturday, September 26

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LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS VS. IOWA STATE CYCLONES
The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and the Iowa State Cyclones will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Jack Trice Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Cyclones as -11.5-point favorites versus the Ragin' Cajuns, while the game's total opened at 58.

Iowa State was a 33-9 loser in its last match at home against Fighting Irish. They failed to cover the +3.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 42 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Last time out for Louisiana-Lafayette, they were a 27-17 winner as they battled RedHawks on the road. Louisiana-Lafayette failed to cover in the match as a -16-point favorite, while 44 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Next up:
Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia State Saturday, September 19
Iowa State at TCU Saturday, September 26

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CHARLOTTE 49ERS VS. APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
The Charlotte 49ers and the Appalachian State Mountaineers will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Kidd Brewer Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Mountaineers as -20.5-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total opened at 61.

In their last action, Appalachian State was a 31-17 winner on the road against Blazers. They failed to cover the -17-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (48) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

Last time out for Charlotte, they were a 31-9 loser as they battled Bulls at home. Charlotte failed to cover in the match as a +7-point underdog, while 40 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Next up:
Charlotte at North Carolina Saturday, September 19
Appalachian State at Marshall Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS VS. ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and the Army Black Knights will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Blaik Field at Michie Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Black Knights as -16-point favorites versus the Warhawks, while the game's total opened at 59.

Army won its last outing, a 42-0 result against Blue Raiders on September 05. Army covered in that game as a -4-point favorite, while the 42 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

In their last action, Louisiana-Monroe was a 31-30 loser on the road against Ragin' Cajuns. They covered the +20-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (61) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.

Army:
Team record: 1-0 SU,1-0 ATS
Army is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Army is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Army is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

Next up:
Louisiana-Monroe home to Texas State Saturday, September 19
Army home to BYU Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
The fans at Notre Dame Stadium will be treated to a game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Fighting Irish as -20.5-point favorites versus the Blue Devils, while the game's total opened at 55.5.

Notre Dame was a 33-9 winner in its last match on the road against Cyclones. They covered the -3.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 42 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Duke was a 27-17 winner in their most recent outing at home against Hurricanes. They covered the +9-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (44) made winners of PUSH bettors.

Next up:
Duke home to Boston College Saturday, September 19
Notre Dame home to USF Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UTSA ROADRUNNERS VS. TEXAS STATE BOBCATS
The UTSA Roadrunners and the Texas State Bobcats will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Bobcats as -6.5-point favorites versus the Roadrunners, while the game's total opened at 53.

Texas State lost its last outing, a 31-24 result against Mustangs on September 05. Texas State covered in that game as a +24.5-point underdog, while the 55 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

UTSA lost its last outing, a 41-27 result against Bulldogs on November 30. UTSA covered in that game as a +21-point underdog, while the 68 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Texas State:
Team record: 0-1 SU,1-0 ATS
Texas State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Texas State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas State's last 9 games

Next up:
UTSA home to Stephen F. Austin Saturday, September 19
Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAMPBELL FIGHTING CAMELS VS. GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES
The Campbell Fighting Camels and the Georgia Southern Eagles will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Allen E. Paulson Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Eagles as -34.5-point favorites versus the Fighting Camels, while the game's total opened at 55.5.

In their last action, Georgia Southern was a 23-16 loser at home against Flames. They failed to cover the -5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (39) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.

Next up:
Campbell at Coastal Carolina Friday, September 18
Georgia Southern home to Florida Atlantic Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS VS. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Florida State Seminoles will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Seminoles as -11.5-point favorites versus the Yellow Jackets, while the game's total opened at 51.5.

Last time out for Florida State, they were a 20-14 loser as they battled Sun Devils on the road. Florida State failed to cover in the match as a +3-point underdog, while 34 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Georgia Tech was a 52-7 loser in their most recent outing at home against Bulldogs. They failed to cover the +28.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (59) made winners of OVER bettors.

Next up:
Georgia Tech home to UCF Saturday, September 19
Florida State at Boise State Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AUSTIN PEAY GOVERNORS VS. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
The Austin Peay Governors and the Pittsburgh Panthers will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Heinz Field.

Oddsmakers opened the Panthers as -27.5-point favorites versus the Governors, while the game's total opened at 52.5.

Pittsburgh won its last outing, a 34-30 result against Eagles on December 26. Pittsburgh failed to cover in that game as a -12.5-point favorite, while the 64 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Next up:
Austin Peay at Cincinnati Saturday, September 19
Pittsburgh home to Syracuse Saturday, September 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE CITADEL BULLDOGS VS. USF BULLS
The fans at Raymond James Stadium will be treated to a game between the The Citadel Bulldogs and the USF Bulls when they take their seats on Saturday.

Oddsmakers opened the Bulls as -17-point favorites versus the Bulldogs, while the game's total opened at 54.5.

USF lost its last outing, a 34-7 result against Knights on November 29. USF failed to cover in that game as a +24-point underdog, while the 41 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Next up:
The Citadel at Clemson Saturday, September 19
USF at Notre Dame Saturday, September 19