5-STAR MINNESOTA +3 over Tennessee
This line qualifies as the overreaction of the week. Coming into the season just two weeks ago, Minnesota had a higher win total than Tennessee. They have not played well at all, but lost to a pair of playoff quality teams. Tennessee meanwhile defeated a bad Denver team by two, and a Jacksonville team that might is among the leagues worst teams by three at home. There is nothing special about this Titans performance. We think this is finally the week that Minnesota is able to get ahead early, something that is critical to how both these teams want to play and that Minnesota has barely had the chance to do this season. The Vikings are a different team playing from ahead and have been inconsistent plenty of times in the past. This is the week their play clicks in their favor.
It is a strange spot for a team to a dog this early in the season to a team they have a higher win total than, and especially a home dog. In the first six weeks of the season, teams that are dogs against a team that had a higher regular season win total then their opponent are a play on.
Tennessee was a big home favorite over the Jags last week and opened up a 24-10 at half before holding on for a 33-30 win where they failed to cover. Teams that were favored by more than a TD last game who were covering or within three points of covering at halftime and then failed to cover are 80-122-6 ATS.
Tennessee moved the ball steadily in that game, picking up 23 first downs. The Titans are 0-11 ATS (-9.23 ppg) since Dec 21, 2003 on the road coming off a home game where they gained at least 22 first downs (team=Titans and A and p:first downs>=22 and p:H and date>=20031221).
However they allowed 30 first downs and 11.75 points more than expected. The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-13.40 ppg) since Jan 19, 2003 coming off a win where they allowed at least seven points more than expected (team=Titans and p:dpa>=7 and p:W and date>=20030119).
That includes surrendering 165 yards on the ground to the not that special Jaguars rushing attack. The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-11.11 ppg) since Sep 21, 2014 on the road coming off a game where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards (team=Titans and A and po:rushing yards>=150 and date>=20140921).
Tennessee at least pushed one of their first two games for bettors. Minnesota is 0-2 ATS with neither game coming that close. In week 3, teams that failed to cover their first two games when their opponent has covered at least one game are 92-57-1 ATS (week=3 and tS(ATSL)=2 and oS(ATSL)<2).
The biggest problem is that Minnesota has never been able to control the ball. They had less than 22 minutes of possession in each of their first two games. Teams that had less than 25 minutes time of possession in two straight games are 160-126-7 ATS (tS(time of possession<1500,N=2)=2).
Last week, they scored just 11 points in a loss to the Colts, 10.75 points less than expected. The Vikings are 8-0-2 ATS (7.45 ppg) since Dec 01, 2016 at home after they scored fewer points than expected last game (team=Vikings and H and p:dps<0 and date>=20161201).
Minnesota gained just 12 first downs in the loss. The Vikings are 13-0 ATS (11.12 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs (team=Vikings and p:first downs<=15 and p:D and date>=20131103).
Minnesota was a brutal 11-of-26 throwing the ball in that game and had just 95 passing yards. Teams that threw for at least 120 yards less than league average last game with a completion percentage at least 10 points lower than league average are 221-181-9 ATS. Also, since 2014, teams coming off a game where they completed less than half of their passes are 107-76-8 ATS (p:completions / p:passes<.5 and season>=2014).
And making matters even worse, they threw three interceptions. The Vikings are 9-0-1 ATS (9.45 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 at home coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers (team=Vikings and H and p:turnovers>=2 and date>=20151220).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 31, Tennessee 20
4.5-STAR Tampa Bay and Denver UNDER 43
When Denver turned to Jeff Driskel last week they were already behind and could not be as conservative as they likely want to be. With a full week to game plan with Driskel, we expect a conservative plan. And we continue to maintain Tampa Bay is not a particularly explosive offense with Tom Brady under center and this will be the best defense theyve face yet. We see this as a recipe for a low scoring game.
This total is way down for Tampa Bay already, as the last time they have faced a total this low was 2017. Their last six games all had a total at least four points higher. When the total is more than four points less than the total in any of a teams last three games (dating back to last season) are 187-235-10 OU.
And last season, the total could not get high enough for Tampa Bay. The average OU margin in their games was +7.4 ppg. Teams in the first 3 weeks of the season whose games went over the total by an average of at least 5 ppg. last regular season are 109-144-11 OU (tpA(ou margin@REG)>=5 and week<=3).
Denver has never been that explosive of a team, even with their starting QBs. They were in the bottom five of the league last year with 195 passing yards per game. They are facing a Tampa Bay defense that ranked third worst in the league in passing yards allowed last season, but this is not Denvers strength in attacking them. Teams in the first three weeks of the regular season who threw for at least 20 yards per game less than league average last season and are playing a team that allowed at least 10 yards per game passing more than league average last season are 91-162-3 OU.
Last week, Denver lost to Pittsburgh 26-21. They allowed 1.5 points more than expected in the loss. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-10.39 ppg) since Nov 26, 2017 as a dog coming off a game where they allowed more points than expected (team=Broncos and D and p:dpa>0 and date>=20171126).
However as nearly a TD dog in that game they also scored 3 points more than expected. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-10.44 ppg) since Dec 24, 2017 coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected (team=Broncos and p:dps>0 and p:A and date>=20171224).
Denvers passing attack in that game was ravaged by allowing seven sacks. Teams that allowed 7+ sacks last game are 144-189-6 OU.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 20, DENVER 13
4.5-STAR Detroit +6 over ARIZONA
This line is putting huge credence on the first two weeks for these teams. While they have certainly been positive for Arizona, and a much more mixed bag for Detroit, we arent sure these teams are that different than we thought of them before the season. And at that point, Arizona would have been a three-point favorite here at most. Detroit is a much better team than their 0-2 record and we do not see them getting blown out here.
Arizona was expected to be a below .500 team but had a big win last week over Washington, 30-15. Teams in the first 9 weeks of the season who had a regular season win line less than 7.5 and won by 7+ last game are 23-51-2 ATS.
Whiie they threw for 286 yards in that game, no receiver had more than 68 of those yards. The Cardinals are 0-8-1 ATS (-9.00 ppg) since Jan 16, 2016 off a game as a favorite when they did not have a player with 80+ receiving yards (team=Cardinals and max:p:receiving yards<80 and p:F and date>=20160116).
While Arizona has won and covered both games so far this season, Detroit has lost and failed to cover in both games. In week 3, teams that failed to cover their first two games when their opponent has covered at least one game are 92-57-1 ATS (week=3 and tS(ATSL)=2 and oS(ATSL)<2).
Week one could not have been a closer loss but then they went on to get blown out in Green Bay last week, 42-21. Road teams that lost by more than 14 points on the road last game are 214-167-7 ATS (A and p:A and p:margin<-14).
They did lead 14-3 after one quarter but fell apart defensively after that. Teams which led by at least a TD after one quarter last game and allowed at least 33 points are 151-107-3 ATS (33<=po:points and 7<=p:M1).
They were down 17-14 at half and then allowed a game changing 75-yard TD on the first play of the second half. Teams which allowed at least a 72 yard run last game are 78-60-1 ATS (max:po:longest rush>=72).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit 27, ARIZONA 24
4.5-STAR Cincinnati +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Advanced stats show Philadelphia as the worst team in the league through two weeks. And they are not getting particularly healthier in this game. Cincinnatis weakness is their run defense and were not sure Philadelphia is poised to take advantage, and even if they are we think that will still lead to a close game with the Bengals being able to throw the ball.
This is the second straight home game for Philadelphia after a really ugly week one performance. They were small favorites by kick but lost 37-19. The Eagles are 0-12 ATS (-12.79 ppg) since Jan 02, 2011 at home coming off a home game where they failed to cover by more than two points (team=Eagles and H and p:ats margin<-2 and p:H and date>=20110102).
The fact they are favored again here after being so bad on both sides of the ball is ugly. Teams which are favored after allowing at least 37 points and scoring no more than 19 points are 79-111-3 ATS.
And they are favored again after now having lost by double digits in two straight games. Teams that are favored by more than two points coming off two straight double digit losses are 81-107-4 ATS (line<-2 and tS(margin<=-10,N=2)=2).
Falling behind last week against the Rams, they had to ask Carson Wentz to throw 43 times and that is not what the Eagles want to do.
The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-14.00 ppg) since Oct 07, 2018 coming off a loss where Carson Wentz threw at least 40 passes (Carson Wentz:p:passes>=40 and p:L and date>=20181007).
While Cincinnati is a bad run defense, so too are the Eagles. Last week, they allowed the Rams to run for 191 yards. The Eagles are 0-16 ATS (-13.50 ppg) since Jan 02, 2011 coming off a home game where they allowed at least 130 yards rushing (team=Eagles and po:rushing yards>=130 and p:H and date>=20110102).
Cincinnati has still been the worse of the two run defenses so far this season, giving up 185 yards per game on the ground. But the Eagles have been the fourth worst rushing attack in the league so far this season. Teams that are more than two point favorites when they are averaging at least 20 fewer rushing yards per game than league average and are facing a team allowing at least 20 rushing yards per game more than league average are 130-162-10 ATS.
Cincinnatis run defense killed them last week, in a 35-30 loss. But the offense was their, scoring 30 points. The Bengals are 12-0 ATS (9.17 ppg) since Dec 12, 2004 on the road coming off a road game where they scored at least 24 points (team=Bengals and A and p:points>=24 and p:A and date>=20041212).
That game went flying over the total by 20 points. The Bengals are 8-0 ATS (6.50 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 off a game as a dog that went over the total by at least seven points (team=Bengals and p:ou margin>=7 and p:D and date>=20151004).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cincinnati 24, PHILADELPHIA 23
4-STAR NEW ENGLAND -5.5 over Las Vegas
Las Vegas is getting a lot of buzz this week off their Monday night win over the Saints. However, this is a brutal situation traveling across the country for a 10 am Pacific game on short rest. We like the Patriots far more than this Vegas team to begin with and this is a great spot.
Las Vegas covered in that Monday night matchup as a four-point dog, winning 34-24. Pacific or mountain time zone teams which are playing in the East or Central time zone after a game where they covered by at least four points are 151-208-13 ATS.
But it is important to remember that this Vegas team only had a win total of 7/7.5 coming into the season and we should not overrate this start. Teams in the first 9 weeks of the season who had a regular season win line less than 7.5 and won by 7+ last game are 23-51-2 ATS.
And their offense really has trouble backing up good performances. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-14.61 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points (team=Raiders and A and p:points>=24 and p:H and date>=20161208).
And adding on the issues of the short rest is how much this offense wants to ride Josh Jacobs. On Monday night they gave him 27 carries. Teams playing on short rest when they had a ball carrier with at least 22 rushes last game are 110-142-11 ATS (sorted(list:p:rushes) [-1]>=22 and rest<=5).
Even in the win, Las Vegas had real issue getting off the field on third down. New Orleans went 7-of-11 on third downs. Teams coming off a win where their opponent converted more than 50% of their third downs on at least 13 attempts are 72-111-4 ATS (po:3DP>50 and p:W and p:3DA>=13).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 31, Las Vegas 17
4-STAR CLEVELAND -7 over Washington
Cleveland found its stride in week two and now has 10 days of preparation, something we think is going to be extra important this season with how banged up every team is, Cleveland included. We saw last week that Washington's week one win over Philadelphia might not be all that impressive and we like Cleveland to treat them the same way Arizona did last week.
While Cleveland is 1-1 like Washington, they have yet to cover this season. In week three, that often changes. In week 3, teams that failed to cover their first two games when their opponent has covered at least one game are 92-57-1 ATS (week=3 and tS(ATSL)=2 and oS(ATSL)<2).
That comes after Cleveland covered just four games last season. Teams in the first 10 weeks of the season that covered in four or fewer games last regular season are 167-131-7 ATS (tpS(ATSW@REG)<=4 and week<=10).
Last week, Cleveland won with their offense in a divisional matchup over Cincinnati, 35-30. They now get a cross conference foe in Washington with extra time to prepare. Teams with more than normal rest in the regular season at home vs. a non-divisional opponent after a game where they scored at least 28 points are 104-68-4 ATS.
Washington meanwhile fell to 30-15. The Washington are 0-8 ATS (-10.69 ppg) since Dec 30, 2018 off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 24 points (team=Washington and po:points>=24 and p:D and date>=20181230).
Washington was killed on the ground in that game giving up 160 rushing yards and that is a problem coming into a matchup with these Browns. The Washington are 0-9 ATS (-8.56 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 as a dog coming off a road loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards (team=Washington and D and po:rushing yards>=100 and p:AL and date>=20161204).
Arizona even committed 11 penalties in that game and that wasnt enough to bail them out. Teams which lost while benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 232-276-19 ATS (po:penalties>=11 and p:L).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CLEVELAND by 17
4-STAR Chicago +3.5 over ATLANTA
Coming into the season, Chicago had a win total a win higher than Atlanta. What has changed since then to suggest Atlanta is better. Chicago is 2-0 while Atlanta is 0-2. This line is a result of people falling in love with offense while the edge the Bears have defensively over the awful Falcons defense is more important than Atlanta being better than Chicago offensively.
And early in the season, teams that are dogs against teams they had better win totals then tend to be overreactions. In the first six weeks of the season, teams that are dogs against a team that had a higher regular season win total then their opponent are a play on.
What is not an overreaction is how awful Atlantas defense is. They have allowed 78 points over two games. Teams that have allowed at least 76 combined points their past two games since 2009 are 36-61 ATS (po:points+ppo:points>76 and season>=2009).
In something that is not shocking for Atlanta, they scored 39 points last week and it was not enough. The Falcons are 0-10 ATS (-8.85 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 coming off a loss where they scored at least 30 points (team=Falcons and p:points>=30 and p:L and date>=20020915).
And that was in a game where they led 20-0 after one quarter. Teams which led by at least 20 points after one quarter last game are 23-41-1 ATS (p:M1>=20).
With Dallas playing from behind in that game, they were able to throw for 445 yards against the Atlanta defense. The Falcons are 0-8 ATS (-9.31 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards (team=Falcons and po:passing yards>=300 and p:L and date>=20151025).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago by 7
4-STAR Houston +4.5 over PITTSBURGH
While this is an 0-2 vs a 2-0 matchup, that should come with a bit of an asterisk. Houston is 0-2 having played the two best teams in the league. Pittsburgh has beaten the Giants and a Denver team with Jeff Driskel playing. With both teams getting different caliber of teams here, we like Houstons play to significantly rise up.
Houston lost at home on Sunday, 33-16 to Baltimore. They failed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs in that game. The Texans are 8-0 ATS (9.94 ppg) since Oct 21, 2018 coming off a home game where they failed to cover (team=Texans and p:ats margin<0 and p:H and date>=20181021).
That comes after they failed to cover opening Thursday night against the Chiefs as well. In week 3, teams that failed to cover their first two games when their opponent has covered at least one game are 92-57-1 ATS (week=3 and tS(ATSL)=2 and oS(ATSL)<2).
Pittsburgh won in week two, 26-21 over Denver in a game that was closer than you might think. In that game, Pittsburgh threw for 301 yards. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS (-7.50 ppg) since Dec 27, 2015 coming off a win as a favorite where they threw for at least 300 yards (team=Steelers and p:passing yards>=300 and p:FW and date>=20151227).
They also forced two turnovers from Denver including the game clincher. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS (-9.50 ppg) since Oct 08, 2017 as a home favorite coming off a win where they forced at least two turnovers (team=Steelers and HF and po:turnovers>=2 and p:W and date>=20171008).
The issue was Pittsburgh attempted 12 third downs in that game but converted just two of them. Teams coming off a win where they converted less than 25% of their third downs on at least 12 attempts are 95-142-11 ATS.
Pittsburgh is off to a quick start defensive with 10 sacks in two weeks. And that comes after leading the league in sacks per game in 2019. But that cant be sustainable every game. Teams in the first four weeks of the season that averaged at least .7 sacks more than league average last season are 98-140-6 ATS ((tpA(sacks) - Average(sacks@season)[season -1]>=.7 and week<=4).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Houston 27, PITTSBURGH 24
4-STAR Washington and Cleveland UNDER 45
Cleveland is coming off a monstrously high scoring game but the fundamentals coming out of that game dont back up such high scoring game. And facing a much tougher front seven from Washington this week, we expect Cleveland to work harder on the ground to grind out a victory with a lead, while limiting the very limited Washington offense.
Clevelands defense was certainly not the driving factor of their 35-30 win over Cincinnati last Thursday night. Teams which won a game in which they allowed at least 28 points last game are 261-310-13 OU (po:points>=28 and p:W). Also, the Browns are 0-9 OU (-6.89 ppg) since Dec 14, 2014 at home off a home game where they allowed at least 24 points (team=Browns and H and po:points>=24 and p:H and date>=20141214).
That game went over the total by 20 points. The Browns are 0-12 OU (-9.17 ppg) since Nov 19, 2017 coming off a game that went over the total by at least five points (team=Browns and p:ou margin>=5 and date>=20171119).
And Cleveland dominated on the ground with their 1-2 punch on the ground. Nick Chubb ran 22 times for 124 yards while Kareem Hunt had 10 carries for 86 yards. Teams had two players with 65+ rushing yards last game are 180-241-11 OU.
Even in their blowout loss to Baltimore week one, Hunt had 72 rushing yards and Chubb ran for 60. Teams that had two players with 45+ rushing yards in each of their last two games are 140-173-8 OU.
Washington lost to Arizona last week, 30-15. The 15 points scored were 4.75 less than expected. The Washington are 0-8 OU (-11.94 ppg) since Dec 10, 2017 on the road after they scored less points than expected last game (team=Washington and A and p:dps<0 and date>=20171210).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
4-STAR NY Jets +12.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
2020 has certainly not gone the way the Jets would like thus far. But this line is an overreaction. And as bad as it has been, they still would have covered this line in week one, playing a Bills team on the road that is superior to this Colts team. Indianapolis meanwhile has already been a huge home favorite once this season, against a Jaguars team that actually was suppose to be the worse team in the league coming into that game (not the Jets). They were upset outright. This is the largest line in the league so far this season, and we do not see Indianapolis as a team that warrants it.
Indianapolis is just 1-1 on the season yet are carrying the huge line in this game. Teams which are more than TD favorites which have won less than 62.5% of their games are 299-395-14 ATS.
And that is because New York has been bad this season, losing by 10+ points in each of their first two games and failing to cover in both. That sets up a week 3 bounceback spot. In week 3, teams that failed to cover their first two games are 116-81-1 (week=3 and tS(ATSL)=2).
And the Jets are now the only team in the league yet to hold a lead at any point this season. Since 2010, teams are 12-0 ATS (11.62 ppg) when they are a dog of less than 22 points in week 3 and did not lead in either of their first two games (p:BL = 0 and pp:BL = 0 and week = 3 and 22>line>0 and season>=2010). These underdogs have won outright in 7 of the 12 games and 11 of the 12 lead outright at some point in this week three game.
The Jets run defense is what let them down the most in 31-13 loss to San Francisco last week. They gave up an 80-yard touchdown run on the first play of the game and 182 yards rushing overall. Teams which allowed at least a 72 yard run last game are 78-60-1 ATS (max:po:longest rush>=72).
Where Indianapolis has really excelled in their open to 2020 is on pass defense. Theyve given up an average of just 122.5 yards per game passing to two bad pass offenses, which is 64 yards per game better than ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. That cant last. Favorites who are allowing more than 60 passing yards per game less than league average are 148-189-12 ATS.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS by 4
4-STAR Atlanta and Chicago OVER 47
Chicago loves to play conservative when they are allowed to and certainly did so last week against the Giants (and it almost came back to bite them). But this is not going to be such a game. Atlanta is going to put up big points at home and their incredible collapse against Dallas should only serve as a reminder to this team that no lead is big enough and they are going to want to keep scoring in this game.
Atlanta put up a monumental 39 points last game and that was not enough as they fell to Dallas 40-39. Teams that scored at least 11 points more than league average last game in a loss are 93-70-3 OU (p:points-Average(points@season)>=11 and p:L).
While it was Atlantas special teams that had the ultimate letdown, it was Atlanta defense that allowed 11.75 points more than expected. The Falcons are 8-0 OU (14.50 ppg) since Oct 24, 2010 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points more than expected (team=Falcons and line<-3 and p:dpa>=7 and date>=20101024).
That Dallas game was played to as a huge pace, as the 153 plays run in that game were more than any Falcons games since 2002. Teams coming off a regulation game where there was at least 145 plays run are 127-97-5 OU (p:plays+po:plays>=145 and p:overtime=0).
Atlanta threw for four touchdowns in that game with Calvin Ridley receiving two of those. Ridley also had two receiving touchdowns in their week 1 loss to Seattle. Teams coming off back-to-back games where they had a player with multiple receiving touchdowns are 135-92-7 OU.
With the Cowboys in comeback mode in that game, Atlanta surrendered 445 passing yards in that game. That was more than 100 more passing yards than they allowed in any game since week 6 last year. Teams that allowed at least 70 more passing yards last game than any of their past eight games (dating back to last season) are 208-164-4 OU.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 55 points
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