Thursday 10/1/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Broncos vs. Jets Week 4 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

With the Broncos and Jets kicking off Week 4 with the Thursday Night Football game, make a note that NFL teams prior to playing on TNF this year are now 0-6 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) the week before.

Not something specific to use for this game, but it is something to keep in mind for bettors looking at the spread or ML options on Tampa Bay and Chicago this week, as the Bucs and Bears meet in Chicago for Week 5's TNF game.

For this Broncos-Jets game, it is going to take some work to find something likeable enough to get behind either of these squads, as questions about whether both organizations are deciding on whether to tank or not start to linger.

Truthfully there hasn't been much to like from either Denver or the New York Jets this year, as this pair of 0-3 SU teams could end up being a quick reminder about the tendency for TNF games to be duds.

Betting Resources

Week 4 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Denver -1
Money-Line: Denver -110, NY Jets -110
Total: 39.5

2020 Betting Stats

Denver

Overall: 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Road: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

New York

Overall: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Home: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

Handicapping the Total

The Denver Broncos and New York Jets have each scored 14 or fewer points in two of their respective three contests so far, and only the Broncos were able to get over the 20-point plateau in the outlying game with 21 points against Pittsburgh.

Those kind of abysmal point totals can't have anyone confidently looking at the 'over' here, unless you think you'll see a few turnovers at the beginning of drives, translating into short fields and easy points.

Denver's move to Brett Rypien at quarterback is one where the front office is likely plenty comfortable living with either result. If he lights it up then maybe they've got to give him a fair shake, and if he struggles too, well, it might just hang on until Lock comes back and really makes a decision on whether or not he's going to be the guy going forward.

Not sure how you can confidently believe that Rypien's insertion into the lineup will all of a sudden have this Broncos offense constantly moving the ball other then if the thought process is that negative regarding the Jets defense. Understandable if that's the case, but still somewhat of a tough ask to ensure the Broncos offense pulls their weight for any chance of the 'over' connecting.

At the same time, the Jets offense has already shown that it stinks once again, and the strength of Denver's team is that defensive unit. The Broncos defense have held future Hall of Famers in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady to fewer than 30 points against them in back-to-back weeks, so I'm not sure they'll even be seen facing QB Sam Darnold and this Jets attack as much of a challenge. Hard to imagine being confident in the Jets doing their part either in any 'over' selection.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 7, 2018 - New York 34 vs. Denver 16, Jets +1, Over 42.5
Dec. 10, 2017 - Denver 23 vs. New York 0, Broncos +1, Under 40.5

Handicapping the Side

If you can't trust either team to routinely move the ball down the field, I don't know how any side play can really get you all that excited. I'm not sold on Denver's decision to go with Rypien being worth about a two-point drop in the line – Denver went from -3 to -1 after the announcement – but I was also not sold on the Broncos deserving of opening up as a -3 road favorite for this game.

The fact that the Broncos were favored at all brought an initial squint with it to make sure that's what I was seeing, but based on their defense it makes sense, and paired with that low total it has got, you can easily see the expected game script this line was based around.

Doesn't mean I have to like it, nor do I have to play it. Not one result would shock me here, as either side could get blown out of the building should multiple turnovers do them in, and a close game either way where the loser couldn't execute late wouldn't be surprising at all.

It's anyone's guess as to what side comes out as the correct one in this game, and really, whether or not either side actually wants to win this game or not. Tanking in Week 4 is a little early, and no one will ever admit it, but these teams know they aren't going anywhere in 2020.

There is no alternative incentive to say “play the spoiler against a hated rival” or anything like that for either side, as it really sets up to be one of those ho-hum TNF games we are treated to a handful of times each season where it's easy to turn off by the early 3rd quarter.

You know by then that the trailing team won't have what it takes to make a run at coming back, and even still, you've then got to count on a bad offense in general to all of a sudden execute well above their mean.

Flip a coin as to which team ends up winning this game, but it's going to finish with a 20-17 score. Neither offense is good enough to sustain those 8+ play drives; they'll need to put up points consistently enough, and as long as there aren't multiple turnovers made by both sides, an ugly TNF game is probably what we get.

Key Injuries

Denver

LB Jeremiah Attaochu: Quad - Out
QB Drew Lock: Shoulder - Out
CB Davontae Harris: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Phillip Lindsay: Foot - Questionable

New York

WR Breshad Perriman: Ankle - Questionable
LB Jordan Willis: Ankle - Questionable
WR Jamison Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
S Ashtyn Davis: Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Hogan: Ribs, Knee - Questionable
LB Jordan Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
OT Mekhi Becton: Shoulder - Questionable

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 1
Patrick Everson

Javier Baez and the Cubs are in a must-win situation for Thursday's Game 2 of their best-of-3 series against the Marlins. Caesars pegged host Chicago a -185 favorite, with Miami +170.

MLB betting odds are up for a slimmed-down Thursday wild-card playoffs schedule of five games, after three teams advanced to the divisional round with Wednesday wins. The Chicago Cubs are in an elimination game against the Miami Marlins, while Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers aim to quickly finish off the Milwaukee Brewers.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.

MLB line movement

Chicago stubbed its toe in a 5-1 Game 1 loss to Miami, and the host Cubs now must win Game 2, with first pitch at 2:08 p.m. ET. Caesars books opened Yu Darvish and Chicago at -185, with Miami +170, and there was no line movement through Wednesday night.

Kershaw looks to lead the Dodgers into the divisional round in Game 2 against the Brewers, after L.A. posted a 4-2 victory in Game 1. Most books didn’t post the Game 2 line Wednesday night, so check back Thursday for this 10:08 p.m. ET contest.

Oakland notched a 5-3 Game 2 victory over Chicago Wednesday to force Game 3 at 3:10 p.m. ET. Neither team set its starting pitcher for the clincher, so sportsbooks held off on posting the opening line Wednesday night.

MLB public betting

The Consensus, often indicative of the public’s stance, had the Cubs landing 77 percent of picks against the Marlins through Wednesday night. The San Diego Padres, also facing elimination, were drawing 63 percent of early Consensus picks for Game 2 against the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is at 5:08 p.m. ET.

In Thursday’s opener, at 12:08 p.m. ET, 64 percent of Consensus picks were on the host Atlanta Braves against the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves outlasted the Reds 1-0 in 13 innings in Wednesday’s Game 1.

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955MILWAUKEE -956 LA DODGERS
MILWAUKEE is 19-32 SU (-14.9 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

957CINCINNATI -958 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 10-3 SU (6.7 Units) in day games in the current season.

963CHI WHITE SOX -964 OAKLAND
CHI WHITE SOX is 21-6 SU (15.8 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

967ST LOUIS -968 SAN DIEGO
ST LOUIS are 21-26 SU (-16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

981MIAMI -982 CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI is 13-2 SU (10.6 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

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MLB

Thursday, October 1

Best-of-3 series

American League
White Sox @ A’s (series 1-1)
Cease is 1-1, 4.58 in his last four starts; he is 3-3, 5.67 in seven road starts.
— White Sox are 6-5 in his starts, 3-4 on the road.
— Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
— Cease has never faced Oakland, or pitched in the playoffs.

— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2008.
— White Sox is 2-7 in its last nine road games.
— Chicago lost nine of its last 11 games overall.
— Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.

Fiers is 2-2, 4.09 in his last four starts; he is 2-1, 4.15 in four home starts.
— Oakland is 8-3 in his starts, 3-1 at home.
— Five of his last six starts stayed under.
— Fiers allowed one run in one IP in his only playoff appearance, in 2015 for Houston.
— He is 4-0, 1.58 in eight career starts vs Chicago.

A’s could start Manaea here, but Chicago is 15-0 vs lefty starters, so if they start Manaea, I may have a nervous breakdown and you’ll never see me again ��

— Closer Hendriks threw 49 pitches, is likely out for this game.
— Oakland lost six of its last ten games overall; their best player, 3B Chapman is out for the year.
— A’s are 23-11 at home this season.
— Oakland scored 20 runs total in its last seven games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— A’s are in playoffs for third year in a row- they haven’t advanced in playoffs since 2006.

National League
Cincinnati @ Atlanta (1-0)
Castillo is 3-0, 1.23 in his last three starts; he is 2-4, 4.33 on the road.
— Reds are 4-6 in his starts, 2-4 on foreign soil.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Castillo is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Atlanta.
— This is his first career playoff start.

— Reds are 11-4 in their last fifteen games.
— Reds left 13 men on base yesterday, went 1-12 with RISP.
— Cincy is in playoffs for first time since 2013.
— Reds are 15-17 on the road this year, going 5-4 in last nine road tilts.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.

Rookie Anderson is 3-2, 2.78 in his first six MLB starts.
— Braves are 3-3 in his starts, 1-2 at home.
— Under is 3-1-2 in his six starts.
— He’s never faced the Reds, or pitched in the playoffs.

— Braves went 8-6 in last 14 games, splitting last six.
— Braves left nine men on base yesterday, were 1-10 with RISP.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Atlanta is 20-11 at home this season.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.

Miami (1-0) @ Chicago
Rookie Sanchez is 3-2, 3.46 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Marlins are 3-4 in his starts, 2-1 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his starts.
— He’s never faced Chicago; this is his first playoff appearance.

— Miami is 9-8 in its last 17 games, winning four of last five.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Miami is 21-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen games.

Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he is 5-3, 2.73 in nine home starts.
— Cubs are 8-3 in his starts, 6-3 at home.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Darvish is 2-4, 5.81 in six playoff starts.
— He is 2-1, 6.06 in five career starts vs Miami.

— Chicago had only four hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss.
— Cubs lost seven of their last ten games overall.
— Chicago is 19-15 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

St Louis (1-0) @ San Diego
Wainwright is 2-2, 3.60 in his last four starts; he is 3-1, 3.00 on the road.
— St Louis is 6-3 in his starts, 3-1 on the road.
— Over is 3-3-3 in his starts this year.
— Wainwright is 7-4, 2.19 in 15 games (12 starts) vs San Diego.
— He is 4-5, 2.81 in 27 career playoff games (14 starts).

— Cardinals are 9-4 in they roast thirteen games.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 17-15 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Davies is 2-2, 3.24 in his last four starts; he is 3-2, 3.13 at home.
— San Diego is 7-4 in his starts, 3-2 at home.
— Davies’ last four starts stayed under the total.
— He is 2-3, 4.55 in 10 starts vs St Louis.
— Davies threw one scoreless inning for Milwaukee in ’18 playoffs.

— San Diego lost yesterday; they’re 13-7 in their last 20 games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 27-13 vs right-handed starters.
— Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten games.

Milwaukee @ Los Angeles (1-0)
Woodruff is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.
— Milwaukee is 6-7 in his starts, 3-3 at home.
— Under is 10-2-1 in his starts this year.
— Woodruff has allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in two games (1 start) vs LA.
— He is 1-1, 1.65 in five playoff games (2 starts).

— Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.
— Brewers are 14-18 on the road this season.
— Milwaukee is in playoffs for third year in a row.
— Over is 12-5 in their last 17 games.

Kershaw is 4-1, 2.35 in his last six starts; he is 1-1, 3.48 at home.
— Dodgers are 6-2 in his starts, 1-1 at home.
— Over is 4-4 in his starts this year.
— Kershaw is 9-11, 4.43 in 32 playoff games (25 starts)
— He is 6-5, 2.87 in 15 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Dodgers are 44-17 this year, winning their last five games.
— LA is 22-9 in Chavez Ravine this season.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for 8th year in a row; their last World Series title was 1988.
— Three of their last five games went over.

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MLB

Thursday, October 1

Trend Report

Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami

Chi White Sox @ Oakland
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games
Oakland
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home

Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Diego w/Davies -165 over San Diego

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: MIAMI/CHICAGO CUBS UNDER the total of 6½ runs

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Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Brewers/Dodgers under 7 1/2

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Roz Wins

Roz's THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2020
Free Pick
959. Yankees (4;08 PT / 7:08 ET)

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Cincinnati Reds w/Castillo +120 over Atlanta

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Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play THURSDAY, October 1, 2020
NFL

102. Jets -1.5 (5:20 PT / 8:20 ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Thursday Selection Is

CINCINNATI w/Castillo +127

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Wednesday : SAN DIEGO (Paddack) -160 over St Louis

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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Thursday

Cincinnati Castillo +121

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Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers + 200

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Cubs Darvish

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Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 10/1 MLB ATLANTA -139

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: CINCINNATI/ATLANTA UNDER the total of 7½ runs

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Los Angeles Dodgers - 200

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Friday: BYU/LTech UNDER 59½