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Service Plays Thursday 10/1/20
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Indian Cowboy Thursday 9:10 am eastern
Golf
3 - Z. Johnson -140 over H. Stafford
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider NFL) - New York Jets/Denver Broncos Under 41.5
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
12:38 AM
N.Y. JETS +3
DENVER @ N.Y. JETS | 10/01 | 8:20 PM EDT
I thought the Jets, as bad as they are, represented good value last week against a good but not great Colts team. Boy was I wrong. The difference here is that we know the Broncos aren't good right now with their long list of injured players. It's never a good sign when it takes until Tuesday to know who's going to start at QB for a Thursday game, and it makes even less sense to make such a team a road favorite. As bad as Sam Darnold has looked, he's going to be the better QB here, and he'll be up against a defense that would have given up 26-plus points in three straight games if not for a Stephen Gostkowski meltdown in Week 1.
20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
18-14-2 IN LAST 34 NYJ ATS PICKS | +272
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 3:15 PM
N.Y. JETS +3
DENVER @ N.Y. JETS | 10/01 | 8:20 PM EDT
Welcome to a scenario in which home-field advantage is enhanced in an empty stadium. The winless, hapless Jets will be spared the boos that could otherwise rain down on them. There is little else to endorse, so let’s focus on Denver. The visitors, also 0-3, have been ravaged by injuries, the latest Sunday to DT Jurrell Casey (biceps), who becomes the fourth Bronco Pro Bowler on injured reserve. With QB Drew Lock (shoulder) out, coach Vic Fangio must choose from among three candidates to start. Regardless, there is scant time to prepare. A long trip and a short week with a depleted roster might spell doom for a proud franchise.
12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
10-6-1 IN LAST 17 NYJ ATS PICKS | +339
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Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
1:56 PM
UNDER 40
DENVER @ N.Y. JETS | 10/01 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Jets haven’t come close to sniffing a cover, going 0-3 SU and ATS and losing by an average score of 31-12. The Denver defense has played well getting covers the first two weeks. But the injuries (the Broncos' top five players are injured and top two players are out for the year) are just too much for me to side with the Broncos as they travel to the East Coast on a short week. The Bills and 49ers scored lots on the Jets, but the Broncos aren’t equipped to do that. Under.
4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +400
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ O/U PICKS | +95
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Mike McClure
Golf
Betting Card
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Will Zalatoris +2200
Sergio Garcia +5500
Patrick Rodgers +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +10000
Top 5 Finish
Sergio Garcia +1100
Patrick Rodgers +1200
Talor Gooch +1600
Top 10 Finish
Sergio Garcia +550
Patrick Rodgers +600
Talor Gooch +800
Top 20 Finish
Talor Gooch +400
The projected top 10, according to the model: (Odds from William Hill)
1. Scottie Scheffler (11-1)
2. Will Zalatoris (22-1)
3. Sergio Garcia (55-1)
4. Sungjae Im (16-1)
5. Sebastian Munoz (30-1)
6. Corey Conners (35-1)
7. Sam Burns (28-1)
8. Louis Oosthuizen (14-1)
9. Patrick Rodgers (60-1)
10. Jhonattan Vegas (100-1)
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Rick Gehman
Golf
Course Preview
The Country Club of Jackson has been the host of the Sanderson Farms Championship since the 2015 season. It's a traditional par 72 that will play around 7,400 yards. It features bermuda greens and ranked 26th out of 49 courses in terms of difficulty last season.
Field Preview
This is not a marquee event on the PGA Tour, but it's certainly an upgrade over the field we saw last week in the Dominican Republic. It is headlined by the last two Rookies of the Year in Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im, who will be joined by some of the rising stars on the circuit.
#1 Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler will make his first start since missing the U.S. Open after testing positive for COVID-19. He will also be making his first start since being named the Tour Rookie of the Year. Scheffler has been excellent, notching a top-25 finish in each of his last six starts on Tour, including a fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship.
#2 Sungjae Im
The game is rounding into shape for Im, who finished 22nd at the U.S. Open in his last start. There are plenty of good vibes for Im in Jackson, where he got into a playoff last year before falling to Sebastian Munoz.
#3 Doc Redman
Redman continues to find his name near the top of the leaderboard. He's finished T-3 in two of his last three starts. He's one of the best ball-strikers in this field and is continually knocking at the door.
#4 Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris backed his way into a top 10 last week with a final-round 65 to earn his spot in the field this week. He will need to continue to post great finishes to earn starts, because he doesn't have full status on Tour.
#5 Sam Burns
Burns played himself out of the Corales Puntacana Championship last week with a Saturday round of 78. He played well otherwise and posted a final-round 66. He's 3-for-3 in making cuts at the Sanderson Farms and finished T-3 in 2019.
#6 Emiliano Grillo
Grillo will go as far as the putter allows him, but it's been "good enough" to make six consecutive cuts on Tour and kept himself in contention for the majority of the event in Punta Cana last week.
#7 Sebastian Munoz
The defending champion has been playing well, including a T-18 finish at The Northern Trust, T-8 at the BMW Championship and T-7 at the Tour Championship.
#8 Byeong Hun An
Only one trip to Jackson for An, but he made it count. He finished T-3 last year. He's been a bit volatile recently, with four missed cuts in his last seven starts, but the other three finishes has all been top-25s.
#9 Chez Reavie
Reavie missed the cut at the U.S. Open but finished T-3 in the previous start at Safeway. This type of field composition is much better for Reavie's chances of contending.
#10 Charl Schwartzel
It's been a rough year for Schwartzel, but he's been much better in the past two months. He contended at the 3M Open before finishing T-3. He also made the cut at the PGA Championship and finished T-23 at the Safeway in his last start. This will be his first start at the Sanderson Farms.
#11 Adam Schenk
Schenk struggled on the weekend in the Dominican, shooting rounds of 73-74. Either way, that still marks his eighth consecutive cut made. He's found the weekend in all three career trips to Mississippi, including a T-7 two years ago.
#12 Xinjun Zhang
He is the true definition of "boom or bust." He misses about half his cuts but contends nearly every weekend he attends. That was no different last week, where he finished T-11 in Punta Cana.
#13 Corey Conners
A very disappointing missed cut last week, considering he was one of the better players in the field. He's now missed two cuts in a row and four of his last six. Finished second at the Sanderson Farms two years ago.
#14 Adam Long
This has been a great stretch of golf for Long, who has eight consecutive cuts made, culminating with his fifth-place finish last week.
#15 Brian Harman
The left-handed veteran has made six consecutive cuts, including top-15 finishes at The Northern Trust and the BMW Championship. He finished T-14 at this event last year.
#16 Zach Johnson
Johnson has been flying under the radar a bit, earning top-10s at the U.S. Open and the Wyndham Championship. Now he heads to Mississippi, where he finished T-14 last season.
#17 Si Woo Kim
Kim is one of the most volatile golfers on the planet, but he played well down the stretch of last season including a T-3 at the Wyndham Championship. His ball-striking ability is the skill set he will need to rely on this week in Jackson.
#18 Luke List
List finished T-2 here in 2017 and played well in Punta Cana last week. He ended up finishing T-8 and will look to continue that success this week.
#19 Nate Lashley
Lashley is incredibly streaky, so I'm willing to see if he can continue his good play from last week for one more start. He finished fourth at Corales last week and finished T-20 in Jackson two years ago.
#20 Patrick Rodgers
Rodgers owns one of the better records in Jackson, with three cuts made in three trips and two top-20 finishes.
#21 Henrik Stenson
It was difficult to determine expectations for Stenson last week with so few events played worldwide since March. He played well in Punta Cana, finishing T-21. I still want to see more, but I am cautiously optimistic about Stenson in Jackson.
#22 Kristoffer Ventura
With his T-52 finish last week in the Dominican Republic, Ventura now has five consecutive cuts made on Tour, the longest stretch of his young career.
#23 Hudson Swafford
Swafford popped up and won last week, capturing his first title since 2017. There tends to be a "hangover" for most winners on Tour, so it'll be interesting to see how Swafford responds.
#24 Tyler McCumber
McCumber played very well last week, posting the clubhouse lead on Sunday before falling one shot short of Swafford. That finish will go a long way to ensuring McCumber plays deep into the FedEx Cup playoffs.
#25 Kyle Stanley
Stanley finished with a 68 on Sunday in Punta Cana and finished T-28. He's played better recently in weaker fields like we will have in Jackson, but he has missed the cut in all three trips to the Sanderson Farms.
#26 Hank Lebioda
Lebioda has been great with his full swing over the last handful of weeks, but his putter could not be any worse. It did start to heat up last week in Punta Cana, finishing T-21.
#27 Rob Oppenheim
Oppenheim is off to a nice start to the 2021 season, with a T-36 at the Safeway Open last week and a T-33 finish at Corales last week. He has more experience in Jackson than most others in this field, playing four times and making the cut in three of those.
#28 Doug Ghim
A few late bogeys derailed Ghim's hopes of making the weekend at Corales. There's still plenty to like about his tee-to-green game and his chances this week in Jackson.
#29 Michael Gligic
Gligic missed the cut last week for the first time in a handful of starts. I'm willing to forgive him and see if he can get back on track this week.
#30 Davis Riley
Riley has two wins this year on the Korn Ferry Tour and made the cut at this event last season. He's a Mississippi native, so he should be comfortable at the C.C. of Jackson.
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Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
2:06 PM
N.Y. JETS PK
DENVER @ N.Y. JETS | 10/01 | 8:20 PM EDT
Barring a tie, which would be so fitting, one of these franchises will become the fourth team this century to start 0-4 in consecutive seasons. Wishing I had taken the Jets Monday when they were getting 3 points as the money is pouring in on Gang Green to where it's a pick'em. The Broncos are devastated by injury and are giving UDFA Brett Rypien his first-ever start at QB. Isn't Sam Darnold better than him? If Darnold can't get well vs. a defense down many key guys, well, he shouldn't be an NFL starter. Meanwhile, the Jets should welcome back top WR Jamison Crowder. They are 4-1 in their past five at home.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +185
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Pete Prisco
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (PICK)
This is the dog game of the week, and it happens to be one that is on national television. Oh, boy. One of these 0-3 teams is a likely winner — there could be a tie — but who will it be? I'll go with the home team to wake up as Sam Darnold plays well and new Broncos starter Brett Rypien does not.
Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17
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Holden Kushner (NFL VegasInsider Holden Radio) - New York Jets -125 (Moneyline)
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Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider NFL ) - Denver Broncos +2
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Senior Member
- Rep Power
- 16
Rob V: Thursdat Comp Play
Thursday Card has NFL Double System side, TOP MLB Playoff System and Soccer. Comp play below.
The La Liga Soccer comp play is on Sevilla at 1:00 eastern. Just a week ago Sevilla hung tough losing in extra time to the best team on the globe in Bayern Munich in the Super Cup. They followed up that heart breaking loss with an opening game 3-1 win over Cardiz. Now they are home for Levante who bounced back from a home loss with a 3-1 road win. Levante finished 12 th in the table last season and it will be tough for them to win a 2nd straight road win over a top team like Sevilla who is unbeaten here in the series over the last 5 meetings. Look for Sevilla to secure the full time win. On Thursday we have a Double System NFL Side, MLB Top play and Soccer Blowout. See us on facebook Jump on now and Cash out. For the Soccer Comp play. Go with Sevilla. Rob V- GC Sports.
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
12:36 AM
N.Y. JETS PK
DENVER @ N.Y. JETS | 10/01 | 8:20 PM EDT
Wish I had jumped on this earlier, but I'll still back the Jets at pick'-em against the Broncos, who are led by third-string QB Brett Rypien. New York should get a boost from the (expected) return of Jamison Crowder and tackles Mekhi Becton and George Fant. Look for Gregg Williams' scheme to force turnovers as the Jets finally win.
4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
5-0 IN LAST 5 NYJ ATS PICKS | +500
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SDQL
CHI. CUBS -195
MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 10/01 | 2:08 PM EDT
9:17 AM
The Marlins are 0-10 on the road after a game as road dogs in which their opponent had fewer than six hits and fewer than 13 strikeouts and it is not a series opener. Miami lost those 10 games by an average of 4.6 runs. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 12-0 in the second game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Chicago is 25-0 before game No. 95 at home off a game as a favorite in which it used five-plus pitchers, did not win by five-plus runs and the bullpen did not allow five-plus runs.
55-29 IN LAST 84 MLB ML PICKS | +816
11-4 IN LAST 15 CHC ML PICKS | +521
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ML PICKS | +40
ATLANTA -135
CINCINNATI @ ATLANTA | 10/01 | 12:08 PM EDT
9:15 AM
Cincinnati has been terrible when seeking immediate revenge for a shutout loss, going 0-8 before game No. 150 on the road after a shutout road loss when it is not a series opener. The Reds were in this spot twice this season and they were outscored 19-2 in the two. The Braves have done well in this spot, going 11-0 at home off a home game in which they struck out more than five times, drew fewer than four walks and scored in two or fewer innings. Atlanta won those 11 games by an average of 5.00 runs.
55-29 IN LAST 84 MLB ML PICKS | +816
13-4 IN LAST 17 ATL ML PICKS | +714
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Ben Burns
Added
2* Jets/Broncos Under 20.5 first half
3*Cubs -178
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MTI
4.5-Star Broncos at Jets OVER 40 - The Jets have scored 17, 13 and 7 points respectively so far this season, and this has dropped the odds considerably on Adam Gase being the first coach NFL fired in 2020. Teams in this spot have, not surprisingly, become more aggressive early in the season in an effort to get more points on the board. As evidence, home teams that are below 300 and have scored under their team total for two games in a row are 24-0 OU before week 6 when they are not a FG-plus favorite and they forced at least four punts in their last game. The SDQL text is:
week<=5 and H and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and line > -3 and WP < 30 and po
unts >= 4 and season>=2006
It is not surprising that a focus on more risk-taking has led to points for their opponent. These games have gone over the total by an average of 14.21 ppg with an average final score of 25.5 points to 31.5 points.
Turning our attention to the Broncos, we find that they are 11-0 OU on the road when they are off a loss as a dog and their QB was sacked three-plus times in each of their last two games, going over by an average of 12.36 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL:
team=Broncos and A and p:LD and 3<=po:sacks and 3<=ppo:sacks and date>=19951224
Lets go OVER this low number.
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Goodfella
DOUBLE DIME PLAY
St. Louis Cards +1.5
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11th Hour
4U Atlanta Braves
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Insider Sports Report
4* San Diego (Davies) -155 over St. Louis (Wainwright)
Range: -140 to -180
3* Denver +2 over N.Y. Jets (NFL)
Range: +3.5 to -1
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Primetime Sports Picks For 10/01/20
4 Unit --> Chicago Cubs (Darvish) -180 over Miami (Sanchez)
3 Unit --> Cincinnati (Castillo)/Atlanta (Anderson) UNDER 7.5
3 Unit --> San Diego (Davies) -155 over St. Louis (Wainwright)
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