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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 5, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15 race card scheduled for tonight. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11
1-Cash N Chips (5/2)-Should relish the company and has the gate speed to take control and not look back in the 1st start at NFLD. Looks like a main player if handles the turns on the 1/2 mile oval.
2-I Am Winning (9/5)-May not get the lead off the gate but should be put in play early on. Was used a couple of times in last and just missed. Has been in sharp form and drawing inside should help chances for a picture.
Race 12
4-Elegant Gigi (9/2)-Winner of 2 straight both from tough posts, one race here and the other at a fair. Should be in the hunt for the top check again. The Weaver barn is batting 30% over the past 30 days and this filly likes to win.
5-Magic Credit Card (5/2)-Has been competitive at ScD and is looking for the first NFLD win in 3 starts. Versatile filly can win on the engine but can come off cover as well.
9-Shenzi As (2-1)-Comes off a nice win on 6/17 at ScD from the 2nd tier. Isn't the quickest off the gate but probably has more speed than anyone in the field. It will be up to Merriman to work a smooth steer and the Lorentzon barn has been hot, winning at a 31% clip over the past 30 days.
Race 13
2-PQ Three (8-1)-Ten-year-old has been in the money in 14 of 28 starts here with 2 wins. Has the gate speed to get a close-up seat and could surprise at a nice price with a decent trip.
4-Million Wave (9/5)-Here is the morning line chalk, 0-16 in 2021 and 2-38 the past 2 years. That says something about this group, but tough to leave out. Does have good speed, Merriman steers and starts from a nice spot. Using but will likely offer no value.
8-Star Speaker (20-1)-Had excuses in last 2 when dropped to this level and has the gate speed to be put in play off the gate. Davis Jr knows how to drive aggressively and could pop at long odds with a decent trip. Has hit the board in 8 of 14 starts at NFLD and has taken 5 pictures.
Race 14
1-Forget The Past (4-1)-Makes NFLD debut but has experience racing on a half-mile oval. Has hit the board in all 5 starts this year with 1 win. Wrenn takes the lines which could make a difference and should be in the hunt.
4-Incomeorexpenses (7-1)-Should leave to get a good seat and can win coming off cover. Breaking problems from late April early May don't appear to be an issue and could be sitting on a big try at a solid price.
$1 Late Pick 4
1,2/4,5,9/2,4,8/1,4
Total Bet=$36
Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 7/5/21
July 5, 2021
Every Thursday through Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.
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Delaware Park Race 1 - Post time: 1:15 ET
6-Boss Lady Kim (6-1)
In an unclassified six-runner field of maiden juvenile fillies, Boss Lady Kim is worth a play. The homebred daughter of Street Boss from the outstanding New Jersey-based stakes winning mare Ima Jersey Girl shows a strong, steady, and healthy work tab for trainer G. Sacco (excellent stats with debut runners) while landing a cozy outside post, so we’re expecting this Florida-bred filly to pop go in this five furlong dash while offering excellent wagering value at or near her morning line of 6-1.
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Delaware Park Race 3 – Post time: 2:15 PT
7-Bad to the Bones
From the first crop of Horse of the Year Arrogate, Bad to the Bones looks very much like a live item in this five furlong sprint and really doesn’t appear to have a whole lot to beat. With six recent workouts in a steady pattern that should have him plenty fit, the Stone Farm homebred colt – purchased in utero for $440,00 at Keeneland in 2018 – should have clear sailing and every chance for highly capable trainer G. Motion. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Belmont - Race #6
Belmont - Race #7
Picks Notes #5 Moon Over Miami He's likely a bit more tactical today while dealing with more manageable splits, and he should be able to get the jump on a couple of serious closing threats. #6 Gufo He'll race with blinkers for the first time, so maybe that will keep him in the game a bit earlier today. He's a relentless finisher with a big claim on the top spot today. #8 Burning Bright He'll get back to the turf for the first time since a dull career debut, but he rolled an off-turf bunch going 10f last time out and should get a great trip right up near the pace. I'd want him on deeper tickets. Race Summary Moon Over Miami is probably second choice in this spot, and he should be a bit closer to the early action today than he was last time out. I'll try to longshot Burning Bright in the picture with either of the top two choices.
Belmont - Race #8
Picks Notes #2 Sister Otoole She exits a good finishing effort over the Churchill lawn where she caught a really well-meant winner, and she looks like a good fit right back with this bunch. Feel like the 10/1 ML price would be plenty appealing. #4 Creative Cairo Had a tough time splitting the top pair, so this one will be prominent on my plays. She drops after failing to pick up over good ground when trying Grade III company in that last one, but she's probably a better fit here and can be on the scene late. #8 High Opinion She's a pretty reliable finisher, but she hasn't quite yet made her way back to those big efforts from last fall. She can win here, but she might be overbet. Race Summary Sister Otoole faced a tough winner in that last one, but a repeat of that effort might be good enough to land this one. Creative Cairo looks like a good fit, too, while High Opinion can beat me at an underlaid price.
Picks Notes #5 Snow House Worth taking a look at this one to use against the chalk, as he has rattled off a couple of nice main-track wins in a row. He draws well to prompt the splits early and can land this with a step forward. #2 First Captain No doubt he's the one to beat off a couple of sharp -- and fast -- wins to open his career. He's the clear one to beat today at a short price. #1 Gershwin He has some pretty reliable form, but his best efforts have come when facing off-turf fields rather than straight dirt races full of dirt horses. He's in the picture, but I'll let him prove it to me today. Race Summary No real knocks on First Captain through two starts, but he's going to be a very short price with these, and Snow House should be in the right kind of position to have a go at him.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Pleasanton - Race #3
Pleasanton - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Plum Wild Has excellent speed and has shown it against winners; can get to the lead and should be difficult to catch. #1 B B Kiddo Comes in off a maiden-claiming win and likely will get a good stalking run; trainer Steiner is 40 percent (2 of 5). #4 Unusual Secret Has closed ground in several races and could benefit from a speed dual ahead of him. Race Summary Plum Wild can roll on the front end and should be tough to pass going 5.5 furlongs.
Pleasanton - Race #6
Picks Notes #1 Time is Gone Has tactical speed and can sail the rail during his run; can benefit from a good trip. #3 Lightinthedarkness Was third in a similar spot here last time and broke his maiden over this surface last year; jockey Ayuso hitting at a 30-percent clip (9-30). #2 Phantom Drop Takes a class drop for this and should be able to make a run into contention. Race Summary Time is Gone is fast enough to be a factor from the start and can dig in against these at a good price.
Picks Notes #5 Arch Prince Was along for second last time and was claimed by Moger; makes his first start of the year and has run vs. better than these. #6 El Chava Del Ocho Drops out of a longer race and can be a factor from the start in this sprint. #1 Engram Was second going a route two race and hasn't sprinted since March; has been with good company and can make a late run in this turnback in distance. Race Summary Arch Prince has kept some salty company and lands in a good spot for his first since October.
Tony Finn
Event: (907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) New York Mets
Sport/League: MLB (See all free MLB picks)
Date/Time: July 5, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -160 B Woodruff (RHP), T Megill (RHP) Must Start
The National League Central first-place Brewers (51-34) and NL East first-place New York Mets (43-37) are scheduled to play the first of a three-game set at Citi Field on Monday night with a 7:10 pm ET first pitch. The Brewers give the ball to Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 1.87 ERA) to oppose Mets' Tylor Megill (0-0, 4.82).
The right-handed Megill weighs in at 230 lbs and stands at 6’7”. The former 8th round selection has been pimped as one of the top pitching prospects in the Mets' organizations since 2019. He spent most of the COVID campaign in Low-A to Double-A with 22 appearances, 11 starts, 71.2 innings, 64 hits allowed, and a total of 28 earned runs surrendered. Megill owned a 92:25 K:BB ratio and a 3.52 ERA. Hard contact was an issue with the big righty, as evidence in his .343 BABIP.
There isn't much to add to what Woodruff has shown and accomplished in 2021. The Brewers' ace will need a major meltdown not to be still standing when Megill is replaced on Monday night.
Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Texas w/Allard -145 over Detroit
Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: MILWAUKEE/NY METS UNDER the total of 7 runs
Totals4U
Monday's Free Selection: Cincinnati Reds/Kansas City Royals over 10
Atlantic Sports
Monday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Tampa Bay Lighting - 155 (NHL)
#1 Sports
Monday's Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays - 205
Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the LA Dodgers/Miami Game UNDER 7 Runs
Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Monday : Take BOSTON/LA ANGELS OVER the total of 10 runs
Hawkeye Sports
Monday's Free Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning - 155
Huddle Up Sports
Monday Free Play
Kansas City Minor -113
Arthur Ralph
FreePlay MON Brewers Woodruff-150
The Last Call
Monday's Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays - 200
Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 7/5 MLB LA DODGERS UNDER 7
Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Monday: CLEVELAND/TAMPA BAY UNDER the total of 8½ runs
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Monday: Milwaukee Brewers - 165
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