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MLB
NL games
St Louis (43-46) @ Cubs (44-45)
— Kim is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts.
— Cardinals are 8-6 in his starts.
— over 7-4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-14
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-3
— He gave up a run in 3.2 IP, in his one start vs Chicago.
— Cardinals are 7-5 in last 12 games.
— St Louis is 4-14 in its last 18 road games.
— Under is 15-8-2 in their last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-88
— record in first 5 innings: 34-37-17
— Davies is 1-1, 2.40 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 10-8 in his starts.
— under 8-5 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-4
— He is 1-0, 0.00 (11.2 IP) in two starts vs St Louis this year.
— Cubs lost 18 of last 24 games.
— Chicago is 13-7 in its last 20 home games.
— Over is 5-0 in their last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-89
— record in first 5 innings: 39-38-12
Atlanta (43-44) @ Miami (38-49)
— Fried is 2-2, 4.70 in his last four starts.
— Braves are 6-7 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 7-13
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-1
— He is 0-2, 9.90 in two starts vs Miami this year.
— Braves are 14-15 in their last 29 games
— Atlanta is 7-10 in its last 17 road games.
— under 11-5-1 in last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-87
— record in first 5 innings: 44-31-12
— Rogers is 0-2, 3.32 in his last four starts.
— Marlins are 9-8 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-17
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-1
— He is 0-1, 7.00 in two starts vs Atlanta.
— Marlins are 9-14 in their last 23 games.
— Miami is 5-7 in last 12 home games.
— under 17-12-1 last 30 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-85
— record in first 5 innings: 32-38-15
Pittsburgh (32-55) @ Mets (46-38)
— TAnderson is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 8-8 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-3
— He is 0-1, 3.18 in two starts vs New York.
— bullpen game
— Pirates won three of last five games.
— Pittsburgh is 1-5 in its last six road games.
— under 5-3 last eight
— scored run in first inning: 25-87
— record in first 5 innings: 26-48-13
— Stroman is 0-2, 6.19 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 9-8 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
— He is 0-1, 2.77 in 3 games (2 starts) vs Pittsburgh.
— Megill is 0-0, 3.77 in three starts.
— Mets are 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.
— Mets are 11-13 in their last 24 games.
— Mets are 21-8 in their last 29 home games.
— under 7-4 last 11 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 20-84
— record in first 5 innings: 37-36-11
Cincinnati (46-42) @ Milwaukee (53-37)
— Gutierrez is 1-2, 6.06 in his last three starts.
— Reds are 4-4 in his starts.
— under 4-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-2
— He is 2-0, 2.77 in two starts vs Milwaukee.
— Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games.
— Reds are 4-7 in last 11 road games.
— over 7-4 last 11 road games
— scored run in first inning: 23-88
— record in first 5 innings: 35-38-15
— Peralta is 3-2, 1.86 in his last seven starts.
— Milwaukee is 11-5 in his starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-4-4
— He is 0-1, 2.87 in four starts vs Cincinnati this year.
— Brewers lost four of their last six games.
— Milwaukee won seven of last eight home games.
— under 5-0 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-90
— record in first 5 innings: 42-30-18
Washington (42-44) @ San Francisco (55-32)
— Lester allowed 17 runs in 10.2 IP, in his last three starts.
— Washington is 7-5 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-12
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-3
— He is 5-1, 2.00 in six starts vs San Francisco.
— Washington lost six of its last eight games.
— Nationals are 7-4 in last 11 road games.
— over 6-3 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 29-86
— record in first 5 innings: 35-32-19
— DeSclafani is 5-1, 1.99 in his last six starts.
— Giants are 12-5 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-2
— He is 3-1, 2.79 in 9 games (6 starts) vs Washington.
— Giants are 5-6 in their last 11 games.
— Giants are 13-5 in last 18 home games.
— Over is 8-5 in their last 13 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-85
— record in first 5 innings: 47-27-12
Arizona (26-64) @ Dodgers (54-35)
— CSmith is 0-3, 4.24 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 1-7 in his starts.
— under 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 1-6-1
— He is 1-1, 2.65 in five games (3 starts) vs Los Angeles.
— Arizona is 10-48 in its last 58 games.
— Arizona is 2-28 in its last 30 road games.
— over 7-3 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 15-90
— record in first 5 innings: 32-52-6
— Buehler is 5-1, 2.66 in his last seven starts.
— Dodgers are 11-6 in his starts.
— over 10-6-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-4
— He is 2-0, 1.26 in two starts vs Arizona this year.
— Dodgers are 10-8 in their last 18 games.
— Dodgers won five of last six home games.
— under 9-0-1 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 24-89
— record in first 5 innings: 46-29-14
Colorado (38-51) @ San Diego (53-38)
— Marquez is 3-0, 0.93 in his last four starts.
— Rockies are 11-7 in his starts.
— under 6-1-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-1
— He is 5-3, 5.14 in 12 games (10 starts) vs San Diego.
— Colorado is 13-10 in its last 23 games.
— Rockies are 31-17 at home, 7-34 on road.
— under 9-2 last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-89
— record in first 5 innings: 34-42-13
— Musgrove is 0-0, 4.91 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 9-7 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-3
— He is 2-1, 1.80 in three starts vs Colorado.
— Padres won 15 of their last 21 games.
— San Diego is 12-3 in its last 15 home games.
— over 16 of last 23 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-91
— record in first 5 innings: 35-41-15
AL games
White Sox (52-35) @ Baltimore (28-59)
— Giolito is 1-1, 4.97 in his last five starts
— Chicago is 8-9 in his starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-3
— He is 1-2, 7.53 in three starts vs Baltimore.
— Chicago won its last three games.
— White Sox won their last five road games.
— over 12-5 last 17 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-86
— record in first 5 innings: 48-23-16
— Eshelman is 0-1, 7.16 in four starts
— Orioles are 2-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Chicago.
— Orioles are 4-6 in last ten games.
— Baltimore is 15-31 on the road, 13-29 at home.
— over is 35-16-1 in their last 52 games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-88
— record in first 5 innings: 26-47-15
Kansas City (36-52) @ Cleveland (44-42)
— Minor is 0-3, 7.31 in his last three starts.
— Royals are 8-10 in his starts.
— under 9-9
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-2
— He is 3-0, 1.26 in 9 games (3 starts) vs Cleveland.
— Royals lost 25 of their last 32 games.
— Royals are 0-11 in their last 11 road games.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
— scores run in first inning: 17-88
— record in first 5 innings: 32-44-12
— Morgan is 1-3, 8.44 in five starts.
— Indians are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.
— Cleveland lost 12 of its last 16 games.
— Indians lost 6 of last 8 home games.
— over 33-18-1 last 52 games
— scores run in first inning: 29-86
— record in first 5 innings: 30-42-14
Toronto (44-41) @ Tampa Bay (52-36)
— Stripling is 1-0, 2.15 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 7-6 in his starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-13
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-1
— He allowed 1 run in 12.2 IP in 2 games vs Tampa Bay this year.
— Blue Jays won 12 of their last 18 games.
— Toronto won six of its last eight road games.
— over 8-5 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-86
— record in first 5 innings: 41-34-11
— Yarbrough is 3-0, 3.90 in his last five starts.
— Rays are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 2-12
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-3
— He is 1-0, 2.16 in three games (16.2 IP) vs Toronto this year.
— Tampa Bay won its last five games.
— Rays are 11-2 in last 13 home games.
— over is 7-4-1 in last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-88
— record in first 5 innings: 35-31-22
Oakland (50-40) @ Texas (35-54)
— Kaprielian is 2-2, 2.64 in his last five starts.
— A’s are 6-4 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-10
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4-3
— He is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs Texas.
— A’s lost 13 of their last 19 games.
— Oakland is 4-9 in its last 13 road games.
— Under is 10-5 in their last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-90
— record in first 5 innings: 38-35-17
— Foltynewicz is 1-1, 4.32 in his last four starts.
— Texas is 6-11 in his starts.
— under 10-7
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 3-10-4
— He is 1-0, 2.77 in two starts vs Oakland this year.
— Texas is 9-6 in its last 15 games.
— Texas is 7-4 in its last 11 home games.
— over 15-8-3 last 26 games.
— scored run in first inning: 18-88
— record in first 5 innings: 31-44-13
Detroit (40-49) @ Minnesota (37-50)
— bullpen game
— Detroit is 11-10 its last 21 games.
— Detroit is 5-4 in its last nine road games.
— over 19-9-1 last 29 games
— scored run in first inning: 18-90
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-3 last 13 on road.
— Ober is 1-1, 4.86 in his last four starts.
— Twins are 4-3 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Detroit.
— Minnesota lost seven of its last 11 games.
— Twins are 8-9 in last 17 home games.
— over 17-8-2 last 27 home games
— scores run in first inning: 32-87
— record in first 5 innings: 27-41-19
Bronx (45-42) @ Houston (53-35)
— Former Astro Cole is 0-1, 7.04 in his last three starts.
— New York is 8-9 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-4
— He is 0-1, 5.25 in two starts vs Houston.
— New York won four of its last five games.
— New York is 6-7 in its last 13 road games.
— over 18-10-1 last 29 games
— scored run in first inning: 24-87
— record in first 5 innings: 36-35-16
— Greinke is 1-0, 3.15 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 13-5 in his starts.
— over 12-2 last 14 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-5
— He is 4-4, 5.14 in 16 games (13 starts) vs New York.
— Astros won 6 of their last 8 games.
— Astros are 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
— under 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 31-89
— record in first 5 innings: 47-28-14
Angels (44-43) @ Seattle (47-42)
— Sandoval is 2-0, 4.15 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 5-3 in his starts.
— over 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2-2
— He is 0-1, 2.70 in two starts vs Seattle.
— Halos are 8-8 in last 16 games.
— Angels are 3-2 in last five road games.
— over 21-8-1 last 30 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-88
— record in first 5 innings: 39-38-11
— Flexen is 2-0, 1.75 in his last four starts.
— Mariners are 11-4 in his starts.
— over 8-4 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-1
— He gave up 3 runs in four IP, in his one start vs Anaheim.
— Seattle won 16 of its last 22 games.
— Seattle is 11-5 in its last 16 home games.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 27-89
— record in first 5 innings: 41-41-7
Interleague games
Philadelphia (42-44) @ Boston (55-34)
— Moore is 0-1, 6.75 in five starts.
— Phillies are 4-1 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He is 4-5, 4.50 in 10 games (9 starts) vs Boston.
— Phillies are 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Phillies are 24-16 at home, 18-28 on road.
— over 6-0 last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-86
— record in first 5 innings: 33-33-20
— Perez is 3-0, 3.72 in his last four starts.
— Red Sox are 11-6 in his starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-3
— He is 2-0, 4.10 in 5 games (4 starts) vs Philly.
— Boston is 18-9 in its last 27 games.
— Red Sox are 9-0 in last nine home games.
— over 5-1 last six home games
— scored run in first inning: 32-89
— record in first 5 innings: 42-33-14
Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 10, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the Meadowlands has a 13 race card ready to roll. The feature comes in Race 10, the Graduate Series Final with a $250,000 purse. Also on the program are the Elimination races for next week's Meadowland's Pace. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10. That sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
3-Captain Barbossa (5-1)-Didn't explode down the lane in last and faded to 6th. Comes right back here which has happened only 2 times this year. Has won both starts when racing the following week and the Alagna barn is batting 31% over the last 30 days. The pace should be hot and Dunn might have more luck coaxing a big burst down the lane with top money on the line.
4-Ruthless Hanover (7/2)-Got the top on 6-19 and sizzled home in a new lifetime mark of 147.2. AMac will probably follow the same script to blast out and not look back. Will be tough to beat with a similar effort.
7-Tattoo Artist (10-1)-Will take a swing for a price and this Ryder trainee has the gate speed to get a close-up seat. Does need a trip but getting one isn't out of the question and could be overlooked at the windows.
Race 11
5-My Pal Joe (4-1)-Comes off a sharp effort on 6-3 from post 9 to cash a 3rd place check at this class. This is the first prime post draw in almost 2 months and has won 4 of 16 starts at M1. AMac makes his 2nd tour of duty and it's best to respect.
6-Shake That House (6-1)-Tossing last versus tough foes. Will need a top effort at this level but has the gate speed to get a good seat and there could be a hot pace. If the fractions are lively this Alagna trainee should be rolling by the half and with a good steer could pop at a nice price.
Race 12
2-De Los Cielos Deo (5/2)-Gets post relief and faces slightly easier here. Comes off a large effort in last and was absolutely smoking with a 52.4 last half. This week Miller should be in striking range for a picture turning for the wire.
3-The Devils Own N (9/2)-Drops to a more comfortable level in what is likely to be the last start for these connections. Has been entered in the Tattersalls sale on 7-18. Dunn should work a very good trip with this post draw and could offer a solid price.
8-Ima Real Ladys Man (3-1)-Finished just ahead of #2 last week. Hasn't won since 5-1 and has been in the hunt without the best of trips in the last 3 races. This post may not pose a big issue, shows 2 wins from this slot back in April and Tetrick was steering then too.
Race 13
2-Gods Spirit N (3-1)-Has been leaving for the top and that hasn't worked well, but could try a different route here. The 2021 record is only 1-11, but this appears to be a beatable field and TMac has choices from this post.
3-Dealer's Table (7/2)-Drops to a soft spot and has been stuck outside in the last 3 starts. Tetrick returns and could be sitting on a big try. Hasn't won since 4-3 but has been facing tougher and should relish the company tonight.
0.50 Late Pick 4
3,4,7/5,6/2,3,8/2,3
Total Bet=$18
Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 7/10/21
July 10, 2021
Every Thursday through Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.
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Ellis Park Race 6 – Post time: 3:10 CT
6-Wora (8-1)
Here’s a grass grab bag for first-level allowance older horses that offers a possibility of a price chance. Wora returns to turf, has run well on the lawn in the past, and tackles an easier group after failing to land a blow in a tougher spot on dirt at Churchill Downs on Derby day. Freshened for more than two months and working well in the interim, the son of Upstart has back numbers that make him dangerous at this level and projects to settle in the second flight and then have him chance to tag the speed from the quarter pole home. He’s listed at 8-1 on the morning line and we suspect he’s better than that.
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Woodbine Race 7 – Post time: 4:21 ET
3-Our Flash Drive (7/2)
Had a couple of outings last summer at Saratoga without much success but returned a much better filly in her sophomore debut three weeks ago when dismantling a maiden field with ease in her first outing over the local all-weather surface. In victory, the daughter of Ghostzapper gave every indication that she’ll be even better around two turns, so despite this aggressive raise in class to Grade-3 company we anticipate the M. Casse-trained filly will be up to the task. A bullet recent workout (46 4/5 seconds, fastest of 44) in another plus, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s a solid win bet and rolling exotic single.
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Ellis Park Race 8 – Post time: 4:10 CT
6-Esperer (8-1)
Let’s take a shot at a price with this freshened filly from a somewhat low profile but highly capable outfit. Unplaced in both of her starts as a 2-year-old in tougher company than she’s facing today, the French-bred 3-year-old returns as a first-time Lasix user with a steady, healthy series of workouts that should have her geared up for a top effort. The V. Oliver-trained 3-year-old earned competitive speed figures last fall and could easily be a better type this time around, so in an abbreviated turf sprint that came up fairly light, she’s worth consideration in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near her morning line of 8-1.
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AI Picks: Delaware Handicap | Saturday, July 10, 2021
July 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s tradition-rich Grade 2 $400,000 Delaware Handicap will be contested over the daunting mile and one-quarter classic distance. To help you tackle the main event, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the DelCap field. The 10-race program gets underway at 1:15 pm ET with undercard stakes featuring the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes.
Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
We’ve included the track’s morning line odds with each entrant.
Delware Park // Grade 2 $400,000 Delaware Handicap // Race 9 // 5:15 PM ET
#5 Bonny South (3-2) // 32%W // 49%P // 64%S
#4 Sarcosa (10-1) // 19%W // 25%P // 41%S
#2 Queen Nekia (3-1) // 17%W // 43%P // 62%S
#3 Dream Marie (4-1) // 11%W // 33%P // 51%S
#1 Gibberish (8-1) // 10%W // 13%P // 26%S
#6 Miss Marissa (6-1) // 5%W // 21%P // 34%S
#7 Final Cut (12-1) // 5%W // 16%P // 22%S
Belmont Saturday Late Pick 5 Analysis & Selections
July 8, 2021 | By Johnny D
There’s an entertaining late pick 5 at Belmont Park scheduled for Saturday that includes an interesting Grade 1 sophomore turf double-header. However, the arrival of Elsa has fans concerned. Now, Elsa’s not a Group 1-level filly from Ireland trained by Aiden O’Brien who’ll handle soft turf. We’ve already got one of those in Belmont Oaks Invitational favorite Santa Barbara. This Elsa is a tropical storm making its way up the east coast and has horseplayers dividing attention between past performances and The Weather Channel.
Currently, (Thursday morning), it appears the wet stuff will pull into Belmont Park Friday, leaving the turf course as wet as a duck’s bottom and, while NYRA officials may leave both Gr 1 features on grass, the remainder of the Saturday turf action could be washed away. That’s always a bummer.
So, that in mind, below is one man’s early humble opinion of Saturday’s Belmont Park late 5.
Race 7
Belmont Oaks Invitational
3-Year-Old Fillies
Grade 1 - $700k
One Mile and One-Quarter (Turf)
#1 Con Lima
She’s an interesting one in here for many reasons. First, she’s trained by soon-to-be-inducted Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; she’s ridden by SoCal riding sensation Flavien Prat; she has early speed and the rail in a race without much other pace; she handles turf with ‘give’ in it; she wins races 6-for-11 with 4 seconds; the only time she has finished worse than third was on dirt in the Gr. 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks behind Crazy Beautiful; she won the Gr. 3 wonder Again last out; she’s an overachieving Texas-bred filly that was purchased for just $15k at the Keeneland November sale. It should be noted that based on form lines she’s no cinch and about even with a couple of others in here. The one mile and one-quarter may not be in her wheelhouse. Can’t think of another long-fused, Texas-bred Gr. 1 winner off the top of my head. Still, she’s got plenty going in her favor and she’s a real trier.
#2 Cirona
We mention her because she arrives from France, where she finished 10th in a field of 17, but less than four lengths behind the winner of the Group 1 Prix Diane at Chantilly. Before that she was second by a head in the Group 1 Prix Saint Alary at this distance over ‘soft’ turf! That’s top-notch company! She’s a Group 3 winner who rarely takes money and, according to the Daily Racing Form, apparently was favored at an unbelievable 17-1 odds in a field of 8 when she won the Prix de la Grotte at Longchamp. That has to be a misprint. Either way, she’ll like the ground soft. The young trainer Christophe Ferland bats around 24%. #5 Santa Barbara will take all the money, but this Euro can’t be ignored.
#3 Higher Truth
This is one of those Chad Brown-trained up and comers you’ve seen upset apple carts for years. She’s got 2 wins in 2 tries over the Belmont turf course at this distance. Not bad. A major step up in competition is a concern but the Brown-Jose Ortiz combo hits at an incredible 31% at Belmont and we’ve seen this trainer leap conditions to win Gr. 1 stakes with fillies forever.
#4 Spanish Loveaffair
She defeated #1 Con Lima in the Gr. 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream in Feb. and was disqualified. She’s finished just behind #8 Gam’s Mission last out in the Gr. 3 Regret. Those efforts are sandwiched around a troubled poor performance in the Gr. 2 Appalachian at Keeneland. In other words, she fits with many of these. Either those fillies all have a shot, or the Euros will have a field day against what, basically, is a Grade 3 group of US-based runners.
#5 Santa Barbara
Following a romping first out maiden score, three subsequent Group 1 starts, including a runner-up effort in the Curragh’s Pretty Polly stakes at this distance last out, point this one out as the most accomplished in the field and probable favorite. She’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and will be ridden by regular pilot Ryan Moore. O’Brien horses take lots of Yankee cash in the states, but his US won-loss record does not warrant the kind of support his runners usually attract. They enter with shiny resumes but don’t always adapt to the US game. So, if you’re looking to take a stand somewhere in the pick five, you could go against the grain and one of the world’s top trainer/jockey combos and leave this filly out of your pick 5.
#7 Plum Ali
A late-running threat from the Christophe Clement/Rosario collection. She just missed behind #1 Con Lima in the mile and one-eighth, Gr. 3 Wonder Again last out. She has won 3 of 6 and has a nice Belmont turf bullet blowout for this. She won the first three starts of her life and hasn’t been very far behind in three races since.
#8 Gam’s Mission
Another promising filly on a hot streak, including the Gr. 3 Regret last out at Churchill in front of #4 Spanish Loveaffair. She’s won 3 of 4 lifetime starts and has improving Beyer Speed Figs in each start.
Bottom Line
Basically, this is a collection of improving US-based 3-year-old fillies against a pair of Euro invaders who have raced well at higher levels. The distance and course condition should favor the invaders, but we think #1 Con Lima has a chance to upset proceedings, if she can control the pace on the front end from the rail. The distance is a concern. #2 Cirona has much in her favor, too.
Use: #1, #2
Race 8
Victory Ride
3-Year-Old Fillies
Grade 3 – $150k
Six and One-Half Furlongs
#1 Bella Sophia
A lightly raced filly making just her third start with a win and a second, both at Belmont, has speed but has drawn the rail. Tough draw for this talented filly to turn the tables on #7 Australasia.
#3 Miss Brazil
She’s got plenty of early speed and will need to use it from the #3 post. She has 3 wins in 6 starts but failed as less than even money favorite last out when she broke through the gate before the start. She has been favored in her last 4 starts and won the Ruthless Stakes going 7 furlongs at Aqueduct. She is 2 for 2 at this distance—maiden and allowance victories.
#4 Ova Charged
The Louisiana-bred enters off a pair of romping victories at Delta Downs and Monmouth in maiden and allowance races, respectively. She’s taking her game to the big time, but it’s always dangerous to overlook an unbeaten runner. She’s fast and will handle a wet track.
#5 Souper Sensational
Off since April, this filly was asked to go two turns against Gr. 2 company twice this winter at Fair Grounds without success. She’s back sprinting in here and that’s probably what she prefers because both wins at 2 came going seven furlongs at Woodbine over a synthetic track. She’s been working up a storm at Churchill Downs, including a pair of bullets—a best of 73 four furlongs and a best of 25 five furlongs. If you’re looking for all of that speed to set it up for a fresh, fast-working closer, she might be your cup of tea.
#6 Red Ghost
She was all out to win the Gr. 3 Miss Preakness at Pimlico last out and now has 3 wins in 4 starts for trainer Wes Ward. Jockey Johnny V. stays here instead of on #5 Souper Sensational. Ward is hitting at an incredible 36% at Belmont this season. She has shown the ability to rate and will need that dimension in this speed-laden field.
#7 Australasia
Unbeaten in 6 starts she has dominated Louisiana-bred foes and open challengers alike. Last out she won the Jersey Girl over this track at generous 4-1 odds. She’s got a versatile style and can deliver a potent closing kick when asked. Jockey Joel Rosario returns in the saddle and he is the fourth rider to have won with her. Trainer Brad Cox continues a strong season with 28% winners at Belmont. Beat her to win it.
Bottom Line
It’s not often two unbeaten 3-year-old Louisiana-bred fillies clash in a Grade 3 stakes race at Belmont Park, but that’s what we’ve got here. #7 Australasia has to be respected until someone defeats her. #4 Ova Charged has speed and appears to have some quality. #3 Miss Brazil must be considered as she was favored over #7 Australasia and #1 Bella Sophia when they met in the Jersey Girl and the former broke through the gate before the start.
Use: #3, #4, #7
Race 9
Belmont Derby Invitational
3-Year-Olds
Grade 1 – $1 Million
One Mile and One-Quarter (Turf)
#1 Palazzi
He will stretch out to this distance off a closing charge that just missed in the Audubon at Churchill. These waters are a bit deeper.
#2 Bolshoi Ballet
Aiden O’Brien hopes this guy can bounce back to the form he had when he won back to back Group 3 stakes in Ireland. A failed attempt in the Group 1 Epsom won’t be held too strongly against him since he reportedly cut his leg early in that race. He was favored over 10 others in the one mile and one-half classic event. He’s been favored in four of his last 5 races. O’Brien runners traditionally are overbet in these US excursions but this one deserves favoritism in here. The state of the cut leg could be a concern but it’s doubtful the colt would have made the trip unless he was good to go.
#3 Safe Conduct
He’s 2 for 3 on turf and that’s grand but these are tougher than he’s ever faced. He’s got enough speed to be close early. He finished fourth to #4 Sainthood last out but that was over a sloppy main track.
#4 Sainthood
He had the edge on #3 Safe Conduct last out when the Pennine Ridge was switched to the main track but now they meet on grass which this fellow will try for the first time. He’s been highly regarded by his trainer since he first raced in January and used a runner-up finish in Turfway’s Jeff Ruby Steaks to vault him into an 11th place Kentucky Derby finish. Pletcher is 25% going dirt to turf but just 13% first turf.
#5 Du Jour
Transferred from trainer Bob Baffert to Bill Mott, this colt is co-owned by his former trainer’s wife Natalie. Unbeaten in his last 3 starts, this colt showed a new dimension in winning from off the pace in the Gr. 2 American Turf at Churchill on Kentucky Derby day. In four turf starts he has 3 wins and 1 second. Jockey Flavien Prat is unbeaten on the colt and returns in the saddle. The mile and one-quarter distance is a concern but the colt’s American Turf performance suggests it won’t be why he loses.
#6 Hard Love
A recent allowance sport at one mile and one-eighth has this fellow pointed here. He’s got enough early speed to either set or force the pace in here. Winner of 3 of 4 stars with a second, he’s 2 for 2 over the Belmont turf in a short career that includes very little to criticize. Trainer Jonathan Thomas has been hot (25%) at Belmont this season. One question centers around the fact this this will be the ridgeling’s first graded stakes race and it’s difficult to knock out a Grade 1 right out of the box. Still, jockey Manny Franco can handle one up front and this guy might have that advantage.
#7 Tokyo Gold
This French-bred and raced invader won a one mile and three-eighths Group 2 last out in Italy against 13 foes. Before that he won back-to-back mile races in France in July and September of 2020. Don’t know exactly where he fits in here, but he gets Johnny Velazquez and handles ‘soft’ turf. Would demand big odds.
#8 Cellist
This son of Big Blue Kitten ought to be part of the early pace. He barely defeated #1 Cellist last out in the Audubon at Churchill when he stole the race on the front end through slow fractions. Before that he broke slowly in an allowance race but overcame it, made the lead and was nailed late. If you like him you probably need to like #1 Palazzi, too, and vice-versa.
#9 Hidden Enemy
He’s another coming out of the Audubon at Churchill and he had no pace to run at in there. He had a much better pace setup in the Gr. 2 American Turf taken by #5 Du Jour and closed well while wide. It took him a long time to break maiden but it appears he will appreciate the added distance. Question is, How good can this non-winner of one be?
Bottom Line
Based on form, #2 Bolshoi Ballet ought to have an edge in here. However, there are reasons to wonder if he’s in the best possible shape. The pace ought to be honest with #4 Sainthood, #6 Hard Love and #8 Cellist possibly keeping things lively. #5 Du Jour cannot be dismissed from just off whatever early pace develops.
Use: #2, #5
Race 10
Maiden Special Weight
3-Year-Olds and Upward
Seven Furlongs (Turf)
This race could come off the turf, so we’ve included analysis & selections for both surfaces.
#3 Ranger Fox
Has speed and, if this race is on turf, will break from the rail—not the best spot over what probably at best will be soggy turf. He’s been close in his last two and will take plenty of money. He can win but he’s worth challenging.
#5 Abaan Main Track Only
He moves from Churchill Downs and trainer Dan Peitz to Belmont and Todd Pletcher. He’s been gelded since his last and has improving Beyer Speed Figs in all three starts. Pletcher is 25% racing horses entering his barn for the first time. Jockey Luis Saez hits at 22% with Pletcher. He’s a threat on the main.
#7 Big Castle
First time starter from low-profile, snake bit 0-26 barn of Bruce Levine. Two works are of interest, both at five eighths from the gate in 1:00 3/5 and 1:01 2/5. Price should be right for this sneaky-looking first-time starter.
#1 My Boy Colton
Has some quick half-mile works, but may need more in here.
#8 Migrate
Mott’s good with these kinds of runners—second out after a seven-furlong turf maiden try that split the field. The colt was off slow in his debut against #3 Ranger Fox and closed ground late while looking like he was just figuring things out. He must be used. He can run a bit.
#1A Lemon Drop Road
If this race is switched to the main track, this guy has to be considered off a runner up effort going six and one-half furlongs June 25. He’s fit and been second at the level twice.
#9 Everesting
He’s fit but he’s had chances, including a runner-up effort going one mile on turf at Gulfstream for a $50k tag. Trainer Saffie Joseph is a red-hot 32% at Belmont this season and 29% with Jose Ortiz with limited starters.
#10 Readyseekgo
Colt has trouble first out after taking no money. Would surprise.
#11 Deregulation
Makes second start for Chad Brown and was just a few lengths behind #3 Ranger Fox back in May. Seven furlongs and outside draw are OK for this one. Brown is 26% off a layoff and 25% with maiden second-time starters. Manny Franco combines with Brown to bat 21%.
Bottom Line
Race ON Turf Use: #3, #8, #11
Race OFF Turf Use: #1A, #5, #7
Race 11
Claiming $25k
3-Year-olds and Upward
One Mile and One-Sixteenth (Turf)
This race could come off the turf, and if that happens players are advised to pay particular attention to the Main Track Only Runners that might draw in. Scratches will affect how this race is run, so we haven’t offered any Main Track analysis or selections.
#3 Soglio
Notable trainer change to 22% Orlando Noda who is 21% first off the claim. This former stakes threat may have some spark left in his 7-year-old frame. If he does, Noda will find it. Javier Castellano is not one of Noda’s go-to jocks. Veteran gelding has worked every 7 days for this, a positive sign.
#4 Mandate
Moved from Todd Pletcher to Wayne Potts three starts back and has disappointed in two starts at higher levels. He returns to the claimed level in here where he was second by a head and a neck in front of #5 Rejected Again. This 4-year-old gelding usually races wide and that won’t help him. He’s 0-5 on Belmont turf.
#5 Rejected Again
Drops back to a live level when third, beaten just a neck behind #4 Mandate and Attentive. Trainer Mike Maker is great at spotting this kind and it appears the 21% trainer has this one aimed toware the winner’s circle. Colt’s likely to set the pace but it’s the holding on part that will worry supporters. Jockey Saez a sparkling 25% with this trainer and all systems appear on ‘Go.’
#6 Counter Offer
A new face to Belmont this season, this gelding has been chasing $35k ‘beaten’ runners at Gulfstream. Trainer Rob Atras (22%) grabbed this one for that price three back and drops him into a likely spot. The 5-year-old’s 3-for-24 win record is a concern, but he’s not out of it entirely.
#7 Outrageous Bet
This 7-year-old races for low-profile connections and is 0 for his last 14. He’d be a surprise.
#8 Acker
He drops to the level of his last victory at Del Mar in November. Over his head in two starts this year for low-profile connections, he has some sort of attraction in here. Not much, but the drop could interest longshot seekers.
#9 Castagno
This 4-year-old gelding has been racing at this level and not really making much noise. He has speed but hasn’t been able to hang on. He’s not totally hopeless but is a reach.
#10 Honorable Hero
This 5-year-old gelding is 3 for 30 lifetime and 0 for his last 13. He may show speed but that’s about it.
#11 Noble Thought
This 8-year-old gelding attracts jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Gustav Rodriguez is 1 for 1 with the jock and 1 for 2 overall in 2021. This one was claimed for $25k three back by the trainer’s brother Rudy and Gustav is listed as co-owner. Rosario did win with this horse for $40k on turf at Aqueduct in November. A pair of wins in 6 starts at Belmont and 2 wins in 8 outings at the distance suggest this one could fit in here.
#12 Boru
This 6-year-old gelding was very consistent when racing in California in 2019 and 2021. He won his first start at Belmont in May, was dropped in price off that score and was claimed by current trainer Mike Miceli for $25k. He was beaten just a length for $40k last out at this distance over this track. He’s a bit interesting off that consistent Cali form.
Bottom Line
#5 Rejected Again figures to set the pace in here and take this field as far as he can. There are some interesting ways to go after that. #11 Noble Though has some things to like; #4 Mandate and #12 Boru are possible inclusions as is #3 Soglio. Many ways to go.
Use #3, #5, #11
Larger Tickets Use: #3, #4, #5, #11, #12
$.50 Belmont Saturday Late Pick 5 Ticket ($54)
Race 7-- #1, #2
Race 8--#3, #4, #7
Race 9--#2, #5
Race 10--#3, #8, #11
(OFF TURF USE INSTEAD: #1A, #5, #7)
Race 11--#3, #5, #11
Race On!
An Early Look at the Haskell, Plus Memories of Arazi
July 7, 2021 | By Jon White
In a horseracingnation.com story written by Carolyn Greer, nine currently are listed as either probable or possible for Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes. The $1 million event will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on July 17.
Missing from the list of candidates is Medina Spirit, who finished first in the Grade I Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1 before he tested positive twice for the banned therapeutic medication betamethasone.
Medina Spirit worked three furlongs in :37.60 at Santa Anita on June 14. That’s been his lone recorded workout since the Florida-bred Protonico colt finished third as the 2-1 favorite in the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 15.
According to an Asbury Park Press report that was confirmed to horseracingnation.com by Monmouth Park racing secretary John Helms, Medina Spirit will not be running in the Haskell.
Listed as probable by horseracingnation.com are Grade I Belmont Stakes runner-up Hot Rod Charlie, Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun and up-and-comer Following Sea. The six currently on the “possible” list, in alphabetic order, are Antigravity, Basso, Midnight Bourbon, Pickin’ Time, Rombauer and Weyburn.
Below are my current Haskell odds for the nine listed as probable or possible:
9-5 Hot Rod Charlie
5-2 Mandaloun
5-1 Following Sea
5-1 Rombauer
6-1 Midnight Bourbon
8-1 Weyburn
20-1 Pickin’ Time
30-1 Antigravity
50-1 Basso
I expect Hot Rod Charlie to be the Haskell favorite after he ran such a terrific race in defeat when he finished second in the Belmont.
In the Belmont, Hot Rod Charlie dashed immediately to the front and stepped the opening quarter-mile in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths.
That was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.
Prior to Hot Rod Charlie, the fastest initial quarter in the Belmont had occurred all the way back in 1945. That’s when The Doge sped the initial quarter in :22 4/5. After setting such a torrid pace in a 1 1/2-mile race on what was then a deep track, The Doge faltered and finished seventh in the field of eight. Pavot won by five lengths. The Doge lost by a little more than 24 lengths.
The Belmont has been run at 1 1/2 miles a total of 95 times. Hot Rod Charlie covered the opening half-mile in :46.49 or :46 2/5 in fifths. The only horse to ever record a faster time for the first half-mile in a 1 1/2-mile Belmont was Secretariat, who was clocked in :46 1/5.
Below are the horses responsible for the only :46 and change fractional times in the history of the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles:
Year Time Horse, Finished (Winner if Different)
1973 :46 1/5 Secretariat, finished 1st
2021 :46 2/5 Hot Rod Charlie, finished 2nd (Essential Quality)
2013 :46 3/5 Frac Daddy, finished last in field of 14 (Palace Malice)
1991 :46 3/5 Corporate Report, finished 4th (Hansel)
1966 :46 3/5 Highest Honors, finished last in field of 13 (Amberoid)
1959 :46 3/5 Manassa Mauler, finished 4th (Sword Dancer)
1996 :46 4/5 Appealing Skier, finished 12th (Editor’s Note)
1957 :46 4/5 Bold Ruler, finished 3rd (Gallant Man)
The above chart points out just how marvelously Hot Rod Charlie ran in defeat. Despite recording the second-fastest half-mile time in the history of the race when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he held on well enough to finish second, leaving everyone other than Essential Quality way behind.
Preakness winner Rombauer wound up a distant third in the Belmont. Hot Rod Charlie finished 11 1/4 lengths in front of Rombauer.
The following splits all belonged to Secretariat when he won the Belmont by 31 lengths to end a 25-year Triple Crown drought:
:23 3/5, :22 3/5, :23 3/5, :24 2/5, :24 4/5, 25 flat
These were the splits in this year’s Belmont:
:22 3/5, :23 3/5, :25 2/5, :25 1/5, :24 4/5, :24 3/5
Essential Quality, only a head off the leading Hot Rod Charlie at the quarter pole, is the one who ran the final quarter in :24 3/5. All the other splits belonged to Hot Rod Charlie.
Hot Rod Charlie lost by 1 1/4 lengths. Adding one-fifth of a second because he lost by that much means that even though Hot Rod Charlie posted the fastest opening quarter fraction in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he still managed to run the final quarter in :24 4/5, a fifth of a second faster than Secretariat in his Belmont.
In his most recent start prior to the Kentucky Derby, Hot Rod Charlie won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Louisiana Derby by two lengths at 1 3/16 miles on March 20. Trained by Doug O’Neill, the Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt won two of nine career starts.
Mandaloun finished sixth as the 13-10 favorite in the Louisiana Derby. He then rebounded in the Kentucky Derby to finish second, only a half-length behind Medina Spirit.
Trained by Brad Cox, Mandaloun will go into the Haskell off a neck victory in Monmouth’s Pegasus Stakes on June 13. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt has won four of seven lifetime starts.
Rombauer, owned by John and Diane Fradkin and trained by Michael McCarthy, won the Preakness by 3 1/2 lengths in an 11-1 upset. The Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt then finished third in the Belmont, 11 1/4 lengths behind runner-up Hot Rod Charlie.
John Fradkin recently told horseracingnation.com that Rombauer was 50-50 for the Haskell. If Rombauer does not go, my current Haskell odds for the eight others listed as probable or possible are below:
8-5 Hot Rod Charlie
2-1 Mandaloun
7-2 Following Sea
5-1 Midnight Bourbon
8-1 Weyburn
20-1 Pickin’ Time
30-1 Antigravity
50-1 Basso
HOW GOOD IS FOLLOWING SEA?
I am especially looking forward to the Haskell because of Following Sea. I think there is a possibility that he is a very special colt.
Following Sea did not race last year. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert unveiled him in a very tough six-furlong maiden special weight race at Santa Anita this year on March 6.
How highly regarded was he going into that race? He was hammered down to 9-10 favoritism in a field of 12.
Following Sea did not live up to the hype. He finished second, 2 1/2 lengths behind 8-1 Defunded, also trained by Baffert. Not only did Following Sea lose at first asking, he was disqualified and placed third for causing interference.
Defunded would go on to finish fourth in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, fourth in the Grade I Pat Day Mile, second in the Grade III Affirmed Stakes and second in last Sunday’s Grade III Los Alamitos Derby for Baffert.
Beyer Speed Figures tell the tale in terms of how much better Following Sea is than he showed in his first race.
Following Sea was credited with a modest 77 Beyer in his March 6 loss. Next time out, he won a six-furlong maiden race geared down by 5 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park on April 10. He took a giant leap in the Beyer Speed Figure department by registering a 97 in his maiden victory.
After Following Sea earned his maiden diploma, new Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has taken over the training duties. For Pletcher, Following Sea won a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race on a wet track rated good June 3 at Belmont Park. Following Sea ran the opening quarter in :22.03, then zipped the half in :44.79 and six furlongs in 1:08.82 before completing his 6 1/2-furlong journey in 1:15.28.
Following Sea was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his June 3 victory. Just as impressive as the big Beyer was the consummate ease with which the figure was accomplished.
I recently asked a sharp East Coast observer for his opinion of Following Sea. This observer is someone who has achieved considerable success in racing in his line of work. I am not identifying him because he spoke to me off the record.
“The sky is the limit” for Following Sea, he said. “He’s about as exciting a horse as I’ve seen in quite a long time.”
REMEMBERING ARAZI
It was a day that I will never forget for two reasons. The date was Nov. 2, 1991. I was at Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup.
One reason I will never forget that day is because it was so cold. It was, without a doubt, a bone-chilling afternoon.
The other reason was Arazi’s scintillating victory in the BC Juvenile. To be at Churchill Downs that day to witness that performance certainly is a special racing memory.
I could not help thinking back to Arazi’s BC Juvenile when I recently read that he had died on July 1 in Australia.
“It is with immense sadness that Stockwell Thoroughbreds announces the passing of one of the racing world’s most revered champions, Arazi, at the grand old age of 32,” the Paulick Report posted last Friday in an edited press release. “The little chestnut with the crooked blaze that made him almost instantly recognizable, captured the minds of racing people around the globe, when in 1991 he produced one of the most memorable performances seen on a racetrack in coming from last to take the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by an easing [up] five lengths.”
Included in the Paulick Report’s edited press release was a comment from Stockwell’s Mike Becker.
“It has been an honor never lost on us to have been guardians to such a beloved horse,” Becker said. “He had major bowel surgery as a 4-year-old and has lived with a major heart murmur for the past 16 years, but in the end it was his body that gave out, not his big heart. He will be very missed around here.”
Arazi finished second in France when debuting at 2, then reeled off six straight wins in that country before running on dirt for the first time in the BC Juvenile.
On the backstretch in the BC Juvenile, while the undefeated Bertrando was “coasting along on an uncontested lead,” as noted by Tom Durkin during his call of the race, Arazi and jockey Patrick Valenzuela were a dozen lengths off the pace in the field of 14.
“When we turned into the backstretch, he was in front of one horse,” Valenzuela said of Arazi’s BC Juvenile in the book “Breeders’ Cup,” written by Jay Privman. “I wanted to move up a little. I smooched to him, and he took off. Whenever he saw an open spot, he went right through it. It was like playing a video game in an arcade.”
“Arazi,” Privman wrote, “grabbed a hold of the bit and was flying, careening through traffic like a motorist trying to evade the highway patrol. By the time the field reached the middle of the far turn, Arazi had gone from 13th to second, with only Bertando, the early leader, still in front of Arazi.”
And then, on the far turn, in one of the most unforgettable moments in Breeders’ Cup history, Arazi zoomed past Bertrando.
“It is still Bertrando, out there unchallenged, he leads by two,” said Durkin as the field made its way around the far turn. “Longshot Agincourt still chasing second. Pine Bluff is only three lengths from the lead. Arazi hits his best stride! And there goes the European star Arazi, and he is coming with a menacing rush to Bertrando. And now the stage is set as they move toward the top of stretch. AND ARAZI RUNS RIGHT BY HIM! Arazi, with a dramatic move as the field turns for home, he’s wide into the stretch. Bertrando stunned at the inside with the move here of Arazi.”
Years later, I asked Alex Solis, who rode Bertrando, what he remembered about that race. Solis said that while in front turning for home, he thought there was no way he was going to get beat because Bertrando was running so strongly.
Bertrando “was full of run turning for home,” Solis said, “and I hadn’t even asked him to run yet. So I thought for sure we were going to win. But then Arazi went by us so fast that he was already like three lengths in front of us by the time I realized what had happened.”
After Arazi took the lead, he quickly opened a commanding advantage. Arazi passed the eighth pole with a five-length lead. With a sixteenth to go, he was at least seven lengths in front before Valenzuela let the youngster coast home to win by five.
“And they are coming down to the finish here. Here is indeed a superstar!” said Durkin. “Arazi, absolutely brilliant. He was taken under a hard hold, to win it here by five, and he could have won by 10 perhaps.”
Arazi underwent knee surgery after the BC Juvenile. In his first race at 3, he won a race at about one mile on soft turf in France by five lengths on April 7. Arazi then returned to Churchill Downs for the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
“No horse since the colorful, stretch-running Silky Sullivan in 1959 -- not even the great Secretariat in 1973 -- caused as much excitement on his arrival in Derbytown as Arazi,” Joe Hirsch wrote in the American Racing Manual. “Television teams from stations throughout the Midwest were present at Standiford Field in record numbers for the appearance on a Sunday afternoon of the wonder horse from France.”
I was not at Churchill Downs to see the Run for the Roses. I should have watched the race in the press box at Hollywood Park. At that time, I was a Daily Racing Form chart-caller. But instead of being at Hollywood Park, I watched the 1991 Kentucky Derby at home. Why? There was no racing at Hollywood Park that day due to the ongoing Rodney King riots that tore Los Angeles apart and had parts of the city going up in flames.
Arazi was sent away as the 9-10 Kentucky Derby favorite. He raced next-to-last early in the field of 18 through the early stages. After being as far back as 12 lengths, he took off approaching the far turn. Arazi rocketed past rivals with eye-catching speed to reach third approaching the top of the stretch, just 1 1/2 lengths off the lead. It looked like he was on his way to another victory.
But Arazi weakened in the stretch and ended up eighth. While he had made an electrifying move on the far turn, just as he had done in the 1 1/16-mile BC Juvenile, he just could not sustain his rally in the stretch this time in a 1 1/4-mile race.
Lil E. Tee, 16-1 in the wagering, won by one length. Casual Lies ran second, while Dance Floor finished third.
As a 3-year-old, Arazi won two of six starts. After the Kentucky Derby, he returned to Europe and finished fifth as the 11-10 favorite in the Group I St. James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on June 16.
Arazi next appeared under silks in a Group III affair at about 1 1/4 miles in France on Sept. 20. He finished third. Arcangues won that race and went on to capture the BC Classic the following year in a 133-1 shocker at Santa Anita.
After Arazi’s Sept. 20 defeat, he won a Group II race by four lengths at about one mile in France on Oct. 4. Arazi subsequently was sent off as the 3-2 favorite in the BC Mile at Gulfstream Park on Oct. 31. But he ended up 11th in that Breeders’ Cup event, which was won by the stellar miler Lure. Arazi then was retired to stud.
Arazi was bred in Kentucky by Ralph Wilson, owner of the NFL’s Buffalo Bills. Allen Paulson purchased the Blushing Groom colt as a weanling for $350,000 at public auction. Paulson, chairman of Gulfstream Aerospace and a pilot, named Arazi for an aeronautical navigational checkpoint in Arizona.
Prior to the 1991 Breeders’ Cup, Paulson sold a 50% interest in Arazi to Sheikh Mohammed for $9 million.
During his racing career, Arazi won nine of 14 lifetime starts and earned $1,212,351. In addition to being a champion in Europe, he was voted a 1991 Eclipse Award as America’s champion 2-year-old male.
Arazi embarked on his stud career in 1993 at Sheikh Mohammed’s Dalham Stud in England. Arazi later was moved to Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky. In 1997, he was sent to Japan. In 2003, Arazi spent time at stud in Switzerland. After that, he spent the remainder of his life in Australia. Pensioned from stud duty at the end of the 2011 breeding season due to declining fertility, Arazi lived a life of leisure thereafter.
As a sire, Arazi’s top earner was Congaree, who banked $3,267,490 while winning the Grade I Met Mile twice and the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup. Arazi’s daughters produced a Group I Dubai World Cup winner (Electrocutionist) and Group I Melbourne Cup winner (Americain).
A NEW NO. 1 IN NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Mystic Guide had ranked No. 1 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for 14 consecutive weeks following his 3 3/4-length win in the Group I, $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 27.
But there is a new No. 1 this week after Mystic Guide finished second on a sloppy track in the Grade II Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park last Saturday. Mystic Guide lost that race by a neck to 11-1 Max Player.
Now at the top of the NTRA rankings is Letruska. She has put together a three-race winning streak consisting of the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap, Grade I Ogden Phipps Stakes and Grade II Fleur de Lis Stakes. Fausto Gutierrez trains the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred Super Saver mare.
Maxfield, who recently won the Grade II Stephen Foster Stakes, is No. 2 this week after being No. 3 last week. He also has won this year’s Grade III Mineshaft Stakes and Grade II Alysheba Stakes for trainer Brendan Walsh.
Mystic Guide, trained by Michael Stidham, slides down a couple of notches to No. 3 this week.
Maxfield and Mystic Guide both are Godolphin homebreds, as is 3-year-old star Essential Quality, who is No. 6 in this week’s NTRA rankings.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 302 Letruska (11)
2. 268 Maxfield (6)
3. 260 Mystic Guide (9)
4. 224 Domestic Spending (7)
5. 222 Silver State (1)
6. 197 Essential Quality (2)
7. 129 Knicks Go
8. 83 Gamine
9. 69 Max Player
10. 58 Monomoy Girl
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #4
Arlington - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Gagoots He's probably not going to offer a big price here, but he should be tough in a very modest spot. He beat a couple of these when they met at this level in June, and he should appreciate the class drop back in with these friends. #4 Zarmae He offers up a mild rally in most starts, but that might be enough to pass most of the tiring ones in the lane. Price won't be nearly as exciting as the 32/1 offering last out. #7 Christmas Present He has some speed to use from this outside draw, but he faded pretty badly in the lane last out behind the listed top pair. Race Summary Gagoots was very competitive with this kind a couple starts back, and something similar to that effort should get him home with this bunch.
Arlington - Race #6
Picks Notes #6 Coming Up Aces Might get a bit better price this time around after fading late in that first go at this level, but the race shape is pretty favorable for him today, and he's probably capable of something better here. #1 Silver Quarters He looks like the one to beat, but he has taken cash in three straight losses, and he figures to get bet again today. Big threat, but he might settle for another underneath piece. #2 Land Mark Deal He's got a bit of ability at times, and his local route try here last fall was pretty solid. Maybe the stretchout gives him a spying chance to wake up today. Race Summary Coming Up Aces has the pace to find the front with these, and maybe he sticks around better today in this third start off the layoff.
Picks Notes #7 Rapid Transit A couple of ones who do their best work on loose leads might set things up for something from off the pace, and she showed some signs of life going short last time out. She's got old route form from off the pace, and maybe she can produce something more like that on the move back around two turns. #5 Daddy's Boo She's 11:6-4-0 over this turf course, but she could get softened up if an early battle of any kind develops with Naval Laughter. Tons of respect for this 10yo mare. #3 Naval Laughter She'll make her turf debut after a couple of really nice efforts here this season. She rolled by 19 off an 18+ month layoff before opening a big lead and settling for second last time out. Spoiler for Daddy's Boo? Race Summary Maybe one of the speed horses gets loose on a manageable lead and this is over heading into the far turn, but neither Daddy's Boo nor Naval Laughter have serious form from off the pace. Let's see if they can set things up for a price rally from Rapid Transit -- if one of the speed horses scratches, I'd call an audible and single the remaining pace.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Hoosier Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #9 SPORTY TORI All revved up with no place to go in the stretch last week, strong play. #2 SO LONG DARLING Second to odds-on winner, projects ideal trip, use in gimmicks. #1 TWIN B TIPSTER Steps up, seeks third upset victory in a row. Race Summary Sporty Tori was blocked with a ton of pace in the stretch and finished out of the money. She draws post 9 but gets plenty of pace to rally into at a price too good to pass up. Play a 9/1,2/ALL trifecta.
Pocono Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes #4 KAK'S REV IT UP Faded chasing fast splits, gets Lasix, figures tough. #3 KEEP'S CLASSY Got up for second against top one in 1:51 clocking. #6 ALWAYSATYOURPLACE Landed share in 3 of last 5 starts against similar. Race Summary Kak's Rev It Up chased a post 9 runaway through a 1:23 third-quarter split and faded out of the money. She gets Lasix in an ideal spot to make best use of her speed. Play 4-3 and 4-6 exactas.
Picks Notes #8 FEELING CAM LUCKY Paced evenly against better, looks to get back on the winning track. #3 ALEX TYE Set pressured pace until stretch, faded as the favorite on sloppy track. #5 TUXEDO BAY Ran second to 2-to-5 fave at this level at Harrah's three starts ago. Race Summary Feeling Cam Lucky gets needed class relief and can enchance his 26-win, $400k resume if he gets early position from an outside post. He set a brisk pace the last two times Napolitano was in the bike. Play 8-3 and 8-5 exactas.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Competitive Speed Ran on for second in the Game Face last out and has been in several graded stakes, including the Gulfstream Park Oaks, when she finished third. She didn't fire and was outrun in the Kentucky Oaks, and her Game Fame effort was her first since Derby Day. Looks perfect for the seven furlongs. #5 Shea D Summer Shook loose and won the Game Face by 2.5 lengths; probably won't be a trip that good this time but still have a legit chance to repeat. #4 Princess Secret Ran an even fourth in an allowance last out and could get a trip just off the pace; won stakes vs. Florida-breds last year. Race Summary Competitive Speed has been in much tougher spots and ran a credible second in her first off after her Kentucky Oaks loss; expect big improvement here, especially with added distance.
Gulfstream Park - Race #12
Picks Notes #8 Kroy Ran into a buzzsaw named Well Defined last out and held second, nine lengths behind at the end; he makes his second start for Garoffalo and fits well here. #6 Surprise Factor Enjoy being on the front end and will try for it today; was a gate-to-wire winner vs. claimers in his last two and has been claimed an impressive five races in a row. #1 Wandering West Is a main-track-only entrant and comes in off a solid second; the one to beat if this one comes off the turf. Race Summary Kroy just doesn't run bad ones and was an easy winner two back, which was the last time he was on the turf; has speed but is also a good finisher.
Picks Notes #4 Moonlite Strike Has been in some classy races and comes in off an easy win in the Roar Stakes; looks like a repeat winner. #8 Lauda Speed Was close-up throughout the Roar and finished second, clear of the third horse; he could complete the same exacta of the Roar. #9 Papetu Came on for third in the Fountain of Youth and then was outrun in the Florida Derby; comes off a 3.5-month vacay and can show some pop at this distance. Race Summary Moonlite Strike has seen a lot of good 3-year-olds and looks to have found his nice in sprints; strong runner and the one to catch.
Nick Borrman
Event: Gold Cup Outright Winner
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 5PM EDT
Play: Mexico to Win Gold Cup (+115)
Gold Cup
Outright Winner
It was always going to come down to USA vs Mexico, but Mexico has a much better lineup for this competition than the USA is fielding. All of the best and brightest stars that are littered across Europe are not here for team USA and I just don't see them competing with Mexico like they did in the Nations League last month.
TAKE MEXICO TO WIN GOLD CUP
Line Parameter: 2% to -110
Nick Borrman
Event: Gold Cup Group Winner Parlay
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 5PM EDT
Play: PARLAY USA to Win Group B + Mexico to Win Group A (-185)
Gold Cup
The first thing to know about the Gold Cup is unlike the EURO or Copa America Tournaments, the level of talent between the teams is vastly different and they competition is completely top heavy. It will be a complete surprise if USA and Mexico don't meet in the final as they just did in June for the Nations League final which USA finally bested Mexico to win that competition. So you will have to get creative in finding ways to bet games and by looking at parlaying different outcomes to at least get a somewhat more reasonable price, otherwise there will be plenty of multiple goal spreads that you are going to have to choose from.
However, be somewhat cautious here with Team USA. I mentioned they finally bested Mexico last month but this is not the same roster that played during that competition. The biggest, brightest names for team USA that are now spread across some of the biggest clubs are Europe, will not be competing. No Christian Pulisic, no Weston McKennie, no Sergino Dest, no Josh Sargent, no Giovanni Reyna just to name a few. This is a team made up of mostly MLS stars with a good mix of experience and first timers. However, the talent level is still lopsided quite a bit and they should have no problem winning their group, however I'm not as confident in this group of going all the way.
Mexico however has most of their roster from the Nations League in tact and should win this competition without too much standing in their way.
PARLAY USA + MEXICO TO WIN THEIR GROUPS
Line Parameter: 1% to -200
Kyle Anthony
Event: (24929) Brad Tavares at (24930) Omari Akhmedov
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Omari Akhmedov +145
In a preliminary bout Omari Akhmedov faces Brad Tavares Saturday night on UFC 264…
I fully believe there's value on Omari at this plus number. Brad is tough and shown he's capable of defending takedowns, but Omari's strength and relentless takedown pressure should provide openings to control positioning. Against Antonio Carlos Junior, Brad was able to defend the sloppy takedowns over 3 rounds. Once in space Tavares utilized his crisper striking to win on the feet. On Saturday night I think Omari will push for level changes and control top positioning. It may not be pretty, but Omari has a high level wrestling IQ and should find opportunities to work in tight.
Over Omari's last 8 UFC appearances he's 6-1-1, only losing to former UFC champion Chris Weidman in a hard fought bout and prior to that a draw against recent title challenger Marvin Vettori.
At this price implied probability on Omari is 40% and I'd cap his chances higher. Definitely see value here putting a small 2% wager on the plus month dog.
Play: Omari Akhmedov (+145)
Kevin Dolan
Event: (234429) Argentina at (234430) Brazil
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Brazil +115
The odds are firmly against Argentina on Saturday as they travel to Rio de Janeiro to face the defending champions Brazil in a tournament Argentina hasn't overly impressed in.
On top of this, Argentina has a really poor H2H record when facing Brazil in their home country, especially in this competition. Five losses from six with one draw hardly inspires confidence that Argentina can get their first Copa America win against Brazil in Brazil, with an extra day of preparation added in for the Brazilians on top.
Brazil are unbeaten at home in this competition since the mid-1970's and we expect that to continue here.
Take Brazil to win on Saturday in their Copa America final against Argentina.
PLAY: BRAZIL ML +115
Las Vegas Cris
Event: (234429) Argentina at (234430) Brazil
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Brazil +112
(Free Plays 58-29 67%* *38-18 L/56 68%) Brazil +112 Brasil is the class of South America and they face off against a pretty good Argentina club. They have Messi, but they have never won anything with him. Brasil has Neymar, one of the very best players in the world, along with a great supporting cast. Brasil gets the home game here in the finals match. Argentina has been struggling through the tournament, while Brasil took care of business each game. I like the to advance at -175 as something to try, or add to a parlay. Brasil +112 in regulation
Nick Borrman
Event: Trinidad and Tobago vs Mexico
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Mexico -2.5 (-140)
Gold Cup
TAKE MEXICO -2.5
Line Parameter: 1% to 2.75, pay up to -150 to get -2.5
Gianni the Greek
Event: (24933) Greg Hardy at (24934) Tai Tuivasa
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: July 10, 2021 11PM EDT
Play: Greg Hardy +115
Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 7/10" Top play White Sox rolled. Here’s some Saturday picks.
100* Marlins -110
100* Royals +105
100* Over 7.5 Dodgers/Dbacks
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park
Lone Star Park - Race 7 Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 4:53P VALOR FARM S. - FOR ACCREDITED TEXAS-BRED FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $562.50 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $562.50 TO START. WEIGHTS: THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 IN 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS.; $15,000 SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH, 2020, 5 LBS. MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED (ON THE SCALE). TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2020-2021, AS DETERMINED BY THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY EQUIBASE COMPANY, WILL BE USED IN DETERMINING THE ORDER OF PREFERENCE OF HORSES ASSIGNED EQUAL WEIGHTS. THE FIELD WILL BE LIMITED TO FOURTEEN STARTERS. HORSES NOT DRAWING A STARTING POSITION IN THE GATE WILL RECEIVE A REFUND OF THE ENTRY FEE. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BOERNE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOERNE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHES OUR FASTEST : Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. IMA DISCREET LADY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the dis tance/surface. BOERNE SHES OUR FASTEST IMA DISCREET LADY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureBOERNE Front-runner IMA DISCREET LADY Stalker SHES OUR FASTEST Alternator/Stalker GEE SHE SPARKLES Trailer NATALIES JOY Trailer SAMBORITA Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pleasanton
Pleasanton - Race 6 Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 5:20P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 1 LB.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. HAWK HILL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HAWK HILL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BARBIERE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce. HAWK HILL BARBIERE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureWINK AND A DREAM Front-runner HAWK HILL Alternator/Stalker BARBIERE Alternator/Stalker ALIBI FOR MISCHIEF Alternator/Stalker ENOS SLAUGHTER Alternator/Stalker COUNTING CARDS Alternator/Trailer
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