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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Thursday, July 15, 2021
July 15, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Wagon Boss; 5-Charlie’sarchangel; 6-Flowers for Lisa; 9-Hammerin Aamer
Forecast: The season opener is an inscrutable low-level claiming main track router that requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. Most of the major contenders are making their first start following a claim, so don’t be surprised if there are several form reversals. Use as many as your budget allows. Flowers for Lisa turned in a clunker when facing $25,000 sellers two months ago but could perform much better today following a brief vacation and a return to his winning level. He was re-claimed two races back by B. Levine, a positive sign, and has a prior win over the Saratoga main track to go along with 13 other career scores. Hammerin Aamer, claimed in four of his last five outings, makes his first start for R. Diodoro (25% with a massive ROI with this angle) so a significant forward move can be anticipated. The veteran Jump Start gelding has never had much luck at Saratoga but has been first or second in 16 of 42 career starts (with seven other placings) so you know if he’s feeling good he can win. Wagon Boss, in the frame in 33 of 62 starts and coming off a game win at Churchill Downs, was claimed for $16,000 and today shows up for $12,500, not normally a healthy sign, but with the presence of J. Rosario in the saddle he could easily fire another winning shot. Charlie’sarchangel, a close second to Wagon Boss last time out in Kentucky, gives Diodoro a second bullet to fire and is a “must use” with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Prima Della; 4-Microbiome; 9-Speedometer
Forecast: Speedometer has the benefit of a prior outing, a better-than-looked third place finish in a hot race at Churchill Downs last month won by Pretty Birdie (entered in today’s Schuylerville S.-G3). In that race, the daughter of Tapit was in tight quarters early and was forced to steady while pressing the pace inside, then loomed a threat entering the lane but lugged in while racing greenly and failed to change leads, costing herself her best chance. The S. Asmussen barn hits at an excellent 21% with second-timers so we’re expecting a forward move today, one that should be good enough to win unless there’s a good thing among the first-timers. Microbiome shows a bullet local workout over a wet track six days ago after impressing in series of sharp drills in Kentucky. The T. Amoss stable is a solid 18% with newcomers so we suspect this daughter of Twirling Candy will fire a big shot. Prima Della is worth including on a ticket or two as well. The Into Mischief filly vans up from her home base at Monmouth Park, where she put together a brief work tab that indicates at least some ability.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Point Me By; 7-So Suave; 9-St. Joe Louis; 10-Treason
Forecast: This is a stronger than par entry-level allowance turf miler featuring a few lightly-raced prospects on the way up. St. Joe Louis, beaten as the favorite in Tampa Bay in his debut in January, left that form far behind when graduating in mid-May at Belmont Park in a fast, highly-rated race for the always-powerful jockey/trainer team of J. Rosario and C. Brown. In that race he pulled hard early, settled midway and then quickened when set down to take control easily before being geared down late. As a twice-started 4-year-old gelding, the son of Kingman obviously has had some issues but if runs back to his smart maiden win he’ll be hard to beat. Point Me By was cold on the board (14-1) in his debut sprinting on turf at Churchill Downs last month but blew away his field in the final furlong with an impressive turn of foot before galloping out in powerful fashion past the wire to indicate he’ll be even better as the distances increase. Bred to run long (Point of Entry) and stretching out in a field with plenty of pace signed on, the E. Kenneally-trained sophomore may be capable of producing a winning late kick right back. Treason also was a surprise debut winner (25-1), capturing a maiden grass miler at Belmont Park in smart fashion despite a slow break and failing to secure cover at any stage. The son of Constitution earned a strong speed figure in victory, shows a couple of easy breezes since that race to tick him over, and picks up J. Ortiz. Like our top two picks, his chances should be promoted by the projected race flow. Worth including on your ticket as well is the Irish invader So Suave, from the C. Clement barn. The first-time Lasix user has been away for 11 months but has won off a similar layoff in the past, appears to be training well, and lands I. Ortiz, Jr. He raced in valuable handicaps overseas while facing tougher foes than he’s seeing today.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 11-Alpha Babe; 12-Ocean Air
Forecast: This race is a bit treacherous because the main contenders are drawn far outside and will need to negotiate a good trip in this middle distance starter allowance turf event for fillies and mares. In a race that is loaded with early speed types, we’ll concentrate on the two that appear most capable of producing a late run. Alpha Babe is a progressive daughter of Malibu Moon fresh from a confidence-building maiden-claiming win at Belmont Park in a career-top figure in her fifth career outing. She likes to settle early and rally late and given the likelihood of a fast, contested early pace the R. Atras-trained 3-year-old filly should have every chance to step forward and win again. At 10-1 on the morning line, she certainly provides good long shot value. Ocean Air is a fit on numbers but is a one-paced type coming off a pair of runner-up efforts in similar company as a short-priced favorite. Perhaps not one to trust but dangerous from off the pace despite her poor draw, the C. Clement-trained daughter of English Channel will be doing her best work late under I. Ortiz, Jr.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Lady Scarlet; 5-Outfoxed; 6-Solasta; 7-Echo Zulu
Forecast: Lady Scarlet ran a winning race in defeat when second while four lengths clear of the rest in a fast five furlong dash at Churchill Downs last month. The B. Cox stable hits at a terrific 30 percent with second-time starters so this daughter of Union Rags seems likely to step forward with that race behind her. Outfoxed is a dangerous first-time starter from the W. Mott stable that brought $360,000 at the OBS April sale after smoking a quarter mile during the preview session in 20 4/5 seconds. She’s the first foal of out a stakes-winning Kantharos mare and is from the first crop of her sire, a son of Candy Ride who won his only start in 1:08 and change for B. Baffert when beating maidens at Santa Anita in 2017. S. Asmussen sends out Echo Zulu, a daughter of the highly-promising freshman stallion Gun Runner from the dam of several black type performers including Gotham S. winner J Boys Echo. A :47 2/5 bullet gate drill (fastest of 44) at Keeneland last month catches the eye. If you can find room on your ticket, you probably should use Solasta somewhere. The Gun Runner filly shows a bullet gate drill at Keeneland last month that indicates at least some speed and ability. Preference on top goes to Lady Scarlet for having had a prior race but we’ll include all four in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Alba’s Star; 5-Kitten by the Sea; 11-Jazzy Lady
Forecast: Alba’s Star missed at 6/5 under similar conditions at Belmont Park last month but seems likely to stick better today in a race that projects to have a favorable race flow. Clearly a need-the-lead type, the lightly-raced Elusive Quality filly lands the inside draw and seems certain to be the controlling speed, so given this type of trip we expect the M. Stidham-trained filly to be tough to catch. Kitten by the Sea, freshened since November, returns for T. Pletcher (a superb 28% with layoff runners) and shows a series of workouts at Monmouth Park that should have her plenty fit. She performed well over this course last year, has run well fresh in the past, and should draft into a second flight, stalking position under I. Ortiz, Jr. Jazzy Lady is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but is a first-off-the-claim play for R. Handal (a solid 17% with this angle) and is fresh from a nice score against a lesser group at Churchill Downs in late May. First or second in five of 11 career starts, the daughter of Cairo Prince will be heard from late if she can get a little help up front.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Arham; 8-Dust Devil
Forecast: Arham and Dust Devil are tough to separate – they finished two-three in a similar first level allowance main track affair at Belmont Park last time out – and both have a right to improve so we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics. Arham had every chance when missing as the favorite in that mid-June affair but adds blinkers, retains L. Saez, and shows a bullet half mile drill (:48 3/5) over the Belmont Park training track since raced. ‘Devil joins the W. Mott barn, retains J. Rosario, and has several speed figures that are faster than par for this level. He projects to settle outside in the second flight and then have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: X
Single: 3-Golden Pal
Forecast: Golden Pal, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland last November, makes his 3-year-old debut for W. Ward and needs only to return as well as he left to pick up where he left off. The son of Uncle Mo is simply much faster than his rivals based on his two-year-old form, and he should be bigger, stronger and more mature after being given the winter and spring off. The work tab at Churchill Downs prior to shipping to Saratoga indicates he’s plenty fit and ready, making him a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Mainstay; 7-Happy Soul; 8-Eagle Express
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Schuylerville S.-G3 for 2-year-old fillies is unique in that every one of the nine entrants is coming off a win. That said, there are three that appear a cut above the rest. The Texas invader Eagle Express was a stakes winner at Lone Star Park vs. state-bred rivals last month in such a manner that suggests she can be highly competitive against this tougher group due in part to her apparent ability to settle off the pace and blast home. She’s drawn comfortably outside and likely will be allowed to stalk and pounce, similar to the trip she enjoyed when blowing away her outclassed foes last time out. Happy Soul is the likely choice and one to beat. She’s put together back-to-back wins by a combined 23 lengths including the Astoria S. at Belmont Park last month for W. Ward and on pure numbers is clearly the fastest in the field. We’ll see how she deals with pace pressure today. Mainstay looked like Ruffian when breaking her maiden at first asking over a wet track at Monmouth Park last month. She probably beat nothing and the going might have moved her up, but if she’s as good as she looked she’ll be very dangerous. Check out her two workouts since raced. Scary.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Viking Zim; 8-Clever Fellow; 10-Big Georges Kingdm
Forecast: The nightcap is a state-bred maiden turf event over a distance of ground that should set up quite well for the improving Viking Zim. The son of Mshawish was given too much to do when a closing fourth vs. similar last time out but this will be his first try around two turns and with some help up front and good racing luck he can be along in time. Clever Fellow has burned money in each of his last three starts and certainly isn’t one to count on but today he’ll add blinkers for the first time so on that angle alone he might be worth one more chance. Big Georges Kingdm, freshened since mid-April and training well in the interim at his home base at Finger Lakes, is bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree and will be trying turf for the first time today. Competitive on numbers and eligible to produce another forward move, the son of Animal Kingdom is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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Fun in the Sun: Saratoga/Del Mar Contest Starts Saturday
July 14, 2021 | By Johnny D
Xpressbet’s popular and profitable Fun in the Sun tournament returns Saturday for another exciting season and it’s your opportunity to make this summer memorable. In a good way, that is. Last summer’s empty Saratoga and Del Mar grandstands won’t soon be forgotten, but this year we’re back on track, baby; and it’s time to create a winning experience you’ll proudly recall again and again.
Fun in the Sun is a weekly online handicapping competition open to Xpressbet account holders that begins Saturday, July 17, and is offered each Saturday through August 28. A $25 weekly registration fee is required to play and all fees are returned to players in the form of prizes. That’s right, no takeout! Zero. Zilch. Zip. In fact, the Xpressbet suits are even going to add a whopping $10,000 to the Saturday, September 4 Final Table kitty!
How can you reach the Final Table? Simple. Well, the process is simple, but a challenge to accomplish. And you wouldn’t want it any other way. Finish in the top-five ranked players weekly, based on total earnings from live $10 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races, and you’ll earn a seat at the Final Table. That’s where qualified players will match handicapping wits Saturday, Sept. 4 for shares of a $10k-added prize pool.
Besides Final Table seats to the top five finishers, weekly prizes include 70% of the gross weekly registration fees (30% goes toward the Final Table pot). The top earner each week will collect 60% of the kitty, with 25% to second and 15% to third (plus seats at the Final Table). Fourth and fifth-best weekly finishers will earn Final Table seats. Weekly competition races are the last 5 races from Saratoga and the first 5 races from Del Mar.
Plus, with Fun in the Sun, even if you don’t earn a weekly prize, you still can come out ahead by cashing one or two of those $10 contest win wagers. Since those bets are ‘live,’ you keep what you win. A nice-priced winner or two will put you ahead for the week!
To register and for complete rules and information visit xpressbet.com/tournaments.
You know you’re going to bet Saratoga and Del Mar beginning Saturday. Why not add a little spice to your weekend horseplay this summer with Xpressbet’s $10,000-added Fun in the Sun? See how your Saratoga picks and Del Mark picks stack up with competition.
See you Saturday!
Jeremy Plonk: Haskell Post Draw Reaction | Saturday, July 17
July 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s 54th running of the Grade 1 $1 million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth lured Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun, Preakness runner-up Midnight Bourbon and Belmont Stakes runner-up Hot Rod Charlie among a field of 7 as drawn this afternoon. The mile and one-eighth Haskell, which has been run since 1968, has seen 11 of its winners go on to be named Champion 3-Year-Old at year’s end, including last year’s titlist and Horse of the Year Authentic.
Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie will leave the gate alongside one another in posts 3 and 4, respectively. Hot Rod Charlie was tabbed the 6-5 morning line favorite with Mandaloun co-second choice at 3-1. Rail-drawn Following Sea was also projected at 3-1 in his stakes debut. The Haskell’s other leading player, Midnight Bourbon, starts from post 6 at 9-2 in the morning line.
Horseplayers betting the Haskell with Xpressbet and the 1/ST BET app can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets if your selection finishes second or third. The money-back special also will be offered on the Grade 1 United Nations on the Monmouth undercard.
Since all four of the race’s key players have a forward running style and the Haskell typically plays to early speed, it will be interesting to see how the battle shakes out. Widest-drawn Midnight Bourbon attracts leading local front-running ace Paco Lopez to the saddle and could be used aggressively. Don’t be surprised if he’s the pace marker trying to hustle and clear into the clubhouse turn. Rail-drawn Following Sea makes his stakes debut as well as his 2-turn unveiling under the typically patient Joel Rosario. Following Sea competes for 3-time Haskell-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.
As for the battle of the runner-ups, note that Kentucky Derby second-place finishers like Mandaloun have a strong history in the Haskell. Such winners since 1999 include Menifee, Lion Heart, Bluegrass Cat, Exaggerator and most recently Good Magic in 2018.
For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Haskell, be sure to check back Friday at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com for Eddie Olczyk and Jeff Siegel’s exclusive handicapping video.
Monmouth Park // Grade 1 Haskell // 5:47 pm ET // 1-1/8 miles
1. Following Sea (Joel Rosario) 3-1
2. Antigravity (David Cohen) 30-1
3. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 3-1
4. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 6-5
5. Pickin’ Time (Nik Juarez) 20-1
6. Midnight Bourbon (Paco Lopez) 9-2
7. Basso (Isaac Castillo) 30-1
Jon White's Haskell Picks
July 15, 2021 | By Jon White
The $1 million Haskell Stakes, premier race of the 2020 Monmouth Park meet, has attracted a field of seven to do battle at 1 1/8 miles.
Louisiana Derby winner and Belmont Stakes runner-up Hot Rod Charlie has been installed as the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the Grade I event.
When I have attempted to pick the winner of the Haskell for the past many years, a good place to start generally has been to take a serious look at the horse or horses trained by Bob Baffert. Why? Baffert has won the Haskell a record nine times.
Not only does Baffert have nine Haskell victories to his credit, 14 of his 15 starters in the race have finished first or second. That’s truly remarkable. Baffert’s only Haskell starter to have finished out of the exacta was Forestry, who ran third behind Menifee and Cat Thief in the 1999 renewal.
Did I go with Baffert last year? No. Knowing that the Baffert-trained Authentic would be a heavy favorite, I decided to opt for someone who would be a better price. Dr Post was my top pick.
I was right that Authentic would be hammered in the wagering. He was sent away as the 3-5 favorite. Dr Post went off at 9-5.
Authentic won, though he almost blew it. After opening a 2 1/2-length lead a furlong from the finish, he won by a scant nose. Authentic almost got nailed at the finish by Ny Traffic, who had to settle second at 5-1 while giving the odds-on favorite a real scare.
Dr Post? He finished third and lost by 4 1/2 lengths.
Well, I don’t have to decide whether to go with or against Baffert in this year’s Haskell. That’s because he is not running a horse in this year’s renewal. But my top pick does happen to be a former Baffert trainee.
My selections for the Haskell are below:
1. Following Sea (3-1 on the morning line)
2. Hot Rod Charlie (6-5)
3. Mandaloun (2-1)
4. Midnight Bourbon (9-2)
As I have stated previously, I think Following Sea might -- I repeat, might -- be a special talent. And as I noted last week, I am not the only one who has this thought.
I recently asked a sharp East Coast observer for his opinion of Following Sea. This person is involved in racing and has had a great deal of success in his particular line of work. I am not identifying him because he spoke to me off the record.
“The sky is the limit” for Following Sea, he said. “He’s about as exciting a horse as I’ve seen in quite a long time.”
New Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher is Following Sea’s current trainer after the colt began his racing career with Hall of Famer Baffert.
Following Sea is by Runhappy, the Eclipse Award-winning champion male sprinter of 2015. Runhappy is by Super Saver. Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver.
When conditioned by Baffert, Following Sea made his career debut in a strong six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita on March 6. In a 12-horse field, Following Sea was pounded down to 9-10 favoritism, but he did not win. He finished second, then was disqualified and placed third for causing interference.
Defunded, also trained by Baffert, won that March 6 maiden contest going away by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 8-1 in his 2021 debut and second career start. In his only start at 2, Defunded finished third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race at Del Mar on Aug. 16.
After his maiden score, Defunded has gone on to finish fourth in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, fourth in the Grade I Pat Day Mile, second in the Grade III Affirmed Stakes and second in the Grade III Los Alamitos Derby for Baffert.
As for Following Sea, a modest 77 Beyer Speed Figure by such a highly regarded 3-year-old in his career debut was a major letdown.
But in his next start, Following Sea did justify the high expectations for him. He won a six-furlong maiden race geared down by 5 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park on April 10. His significant improvement in the Beyer Speed Figure department to a 97 demonstrated just how much better he ran this time than at first asking.
After Following Sea graduated from the maiden ranks in Arkansas, Pletcher took over the training duties. Pletcher ran him in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race on a wet track listed as good June 3 at Belmont Park. Following Sea stepped the opening quarter in :22.03, then zipped the half in :44.79 and six furlongs in 1:08.82 before completing his 6 1/2-furlong journey in 1:15.28.
Following Sea was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his June 3 victory. Just as impressive as the robust Beyer was the consummate ease with which the figure was accomplished.
After Following Sea’s June 3 win, Pletcher talked about Belmont’s Grade III Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 5 or the Haskell as possible next starts for the colt.
Following Sea did not run in the Dwyer. First Captain won that $250,000 race and was credited with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.
If Following Sea had started in the Dwyer, I believe he almost certainly would have won if he had run anything like he did in his last two races when posting Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 100. The Dwyer not only quite likely would have been Following Sea’s first graded stakes victory (which is important), he would have collected the $137,500 winner’s share of the purse.
But instead of competing in the Dwyer, Following Sea shows up in the much tougher Haskell. This, to me, is a big sign of confidence in him on the part of his connections when the Dwyer was seemingly a gimme.
There is a potential problem for Following Sea in the Haskell. It’s the 1 1/8-mile distance. He is being asked to race farther than 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time. Fueling concern in this regard is the fact that Following Sea is by a sprint champion. Not only that, his dam, Quick Flip, also is by a sprint champion in Speightstown.
Pletcher is cautiously optimistic that Following Sea can carry his speed beyond sprints.
“He’s a very leggy, classic two-turn looking horse from a physical standpoint,” Pletcher said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Marcus Hersh. “Watching him train, his works have been always impressive, well in hand, good long-winded gallop outs. This race would answer a lot of questions [regarding stamina].
“His last two races, he won being eased to the wire,” Pletcher continued. “He has a high cruising speed we feel like could stretch out. This isn’t the easiest race to try it, especially with some other speed. But if I were a competitor, I’d be wary of trying to go with him early.”
Look for Following Sea to play the “catch me if you can” game in the Haskell.
As for the preponderance of speed in Following Sea’s pedigree, at least there is some hope that he might be effective in two-turn races in that, as mentioned early, his paternal grandsire, Super Saver, had the stamina to win the Kentucky Derby.
HOT ROD CHARLIE MERITS RESPECT
Possessing enough stamina to succeed in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell certainly is not a concern for Hot Rod Charlie. He won the Grade II Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles in March, finished a respectable third in the Grade I Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles in May, then ran a huge race in defeat when the runner-up in the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles in June.
Trained by Doug O’Neill, Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Belmont, 1 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality and a whopping 11 1/4 lengths in front of third-place finisher Rombauer, who was coming off a win in the Grade I Preakness Stakes.
What made Hot Rod Charlie’s performance in the Belmont so impressive is he managed to finish second despite running the first quarter-mile in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths. It was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.
Prior to Hot Rod Charlie, the quickest initial quarter in the Belmont when run at 1 1/2 miles had occurred all the way back in 1945. That’s when The Doge covered the initial quarter in :22 4/5, a torrid pace in such a long race on what was then a deep track. The Doge paid the price for his early efforts. He faltered and finished seventh in the field of eight. Pavot won by five lengths, while The Doge lost by a little more than 24 lengths.
The Belmont has been run at 1 1/2 miles a total of 95 times. Hot Rod Charlie ran the opening half-mile in :46.49 or :46 2/5 in fifths. The only horse to ever record a faster time for the first half-mile in a 1 1/2-mile Belmont was Secretariat, who was clocked in :46 1/5.
Below are the horses responsible for the only :46 and change fractional times in the history of the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles:
Year Time Horse, Finished (Winner if Different)
1973 :46 1/5 Secretariat, finished 1st
2021 :46 2/5 Hot Rod Charlie, finished 2nd (Essential Quality)
2013 :46 3/5 Frac Daddy, finished last in field of 14 (Palace Malice)
1991 :46 3/5 Corporate Report, finished 4th (Hansel)
1966 :46 3/5 Highest Honors, finished last in field of 13 (Amberoid)
1959 :46 3/5 Manassa Mauler, finished 4th (Sword Dancer)
1996 :46 4/5 Appealing Skier, finished 12th (Editor’s Note)
1957 :46 4/5 Bold Ruler, finished 3rd (Gallant Man)
The above chart points out just what a terrific race Hot Rod Charlie ran in defeat. Despite recording the second-fastest half-mile time in the history of the race when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he finished far in front of everyone other than Essential Quality.
The following splits all belonged to Secretariat when he won the Belmont by 31 lengths to end a 25-year Triple Crown drought:
:23 3/5, :22 3/5, :23 3/5, :24 2/5, :24 4/5, 25 flat
These were the splits in this year’s Belmont:
:22 3/5, :23 3/5, :25 2/5, :25 1/5, :24 4/5, :24 3/5
Essential Quality, only a head off the leading Hot Rod Charlie at the quarter pole, is the one who ran the final quarter in :24 3/5. All the other splits belonged to Hot Rod Charlie.
Adding one-fifth of a second because Hot Rod Charlie lost by 1 1/4 lengths means that even though he recorded the fastest opening quarter fraction in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he still ran the final quarter in :24 4/5, a fifth of a second faster than Secretariat in his Belmont.
BLINKERS OFF THIS TIME
Hot Rod Charlie will be racing sans blinkers in an equipment change this Saturday. This is particularly interesting when viewed in the context of how much better he ran last year after blinkers were added.
In his first three career starts last year, Hot Rod Charlie lost them all. His Beyer Speed Figures were 51, 56 and 57.
Hot Rod Charlie then showed dramatic improvement with blinkers. He recorded a 78 Beyer when victorious in an Oct. 2 maiden race at Santa Anita, followed by a 94 Beyer when second at odds of 94-1 in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6.
In his four starts so far this year, Hot Rod Charlie’s Beyers have been a 94 when third in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 99 in the Louisiana Derby, 100 in the Kentucky Derby and 108 in the Belmont.
But now Hot Rod Charlie’s blinkers are coming off. He did not have blinkers when he worked five furlongs in 1:00.40 last Friday at Santa Anita. Official clockers listed that work as “breezing.” At Southern California tracks, a workout rarely is listed as breezing, which is to indicate that the horse worked considerably easier without any urging at all than a horse whose workout is termed “handily.”
“We’re trying to get the natural competitive abilities to shine without blinkers,” O’Neill said to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen regarding the decision to have Hot Rod Charlie’s blinkers removed for the Haskell
WHAT KIND OF BEYER IS LIKELY NEEDED TO WIN?
In American Pharoah’s first start following his Triple Crown sweep in 2015, he won the Haskell by 2 1/2 lengths as a 1-10 favorite. He logged a 109 Beyer Speed Figure.
Since American Pharoah, the four Haskell winners have recorded Beyers from 95 to 102.
Based on the Beyers for the most recent four Haskell winners, it seems to me that something like a 99 to 101 might be sufficient to get the job done this Saturday.
If that turns out to be the case, it’s another indication that Following Sea can win the Haskell in view of how easily he ran a 100 Beyer last time out.
The only two other Haskell entrants to have ever achieved a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure are Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun.
All of Hot Rod Charlie’s Beyer Speed Figures were mentioned earlier.
When Mandaloun ended up sixth as the 13-10 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he recorded an 82 Beyer Speed Figure. But he then was credited with a career-best 101 Beyer when he finished second in the Kentucky Derby. He defeated Hot Rod Charlie by a half-length that day.
In his most recent start, Mandaloun regressed to a 94 Beyer when he won Monmouth’s 1 1/16-mile Pegasus Stakes by a neck as a 3-10 favorite on June 13. Brad Cox trains the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.
Even though Midnight Bourbon has yet to record a Beyer of 100 or higher, he could prove a tough customer in the Haskell. Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, the Kentucky-bred Tiznow colt ran second to Rombauer in the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15 when last seen under silks.
Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon have met four times this year, as shown below:
--Kentucky Derby on May 1 (Mandaloun second, Midnight Bourbon sixth)
--Louisiana Derby on March 20 (Midnight Bourbon second, Mandaloun sixth)
--Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 13 (Mandaloun first, Midnight Bourbon third)
--Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 16 (Midnight Bourbon first, Mandaloun third)
SUPER SIRE GALILEO DIES; SON WINS BELMONT DERBY
The champion racehorse and fantastic sire Galileo died last Saturday in Ireland at his longtime home, Coolmore’s headquarters in Ireland.
According to a Coolmore news release, the decision to euthanize Galileo stemmed from what was characterized as “a chronic, non-responsive, debilitating injury to his left front foot.” He was 23.
“It’s a very sad day,” Coolmore’s John Magnier said in the news release. “But we all feel incredibly fortunate to have had Galileo here at Coolmore.”
Owner of a tremendous pedigree (by outstanding sire Sadler’s Wells out of 1993 Arc winner Urban Sea), Galileo won six of eight career starts, highlighted by a victory in the coveted Group I Epsom Derby in 2001.
In his final career start, Galileo finished sixth at odds of 7-2 in the Grade I BC Classic at Belmont Park in 2001. Tiznow that day became the first and still only two-time BC Classic winner.
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Galileo won six of eight lifetime starts and earned $2,245,373.
“He was always a very special horse to us and he was the first [Epsom] Derby winner we had in the post-[Vincent] O’Brien era,” John Magnier said of Galileo in the Coolmore news release. “I would also like to thank Aidan and his team for the brilliant job they did with him. The effect he is having on the breed through his sons and daughters will be a lasting legacy and his phenomenal success rally is unprecedented.”
Galileo owns the world record for having sired the most individual Group/Grade I winners, the most recent of these being Bolshoi Ballet.
Also last Saturday, Bolshoi Ballet became Galileo’s 92nd individual Group/Grade I winner when he took the Grade I Belmont Derby on the grass at Belmont Park.
As a stud, Galileo is best known for siring the great Frankel, who won all 14 of his races and is regarded as one of Europe’s all-time greats. Galileo also is the sire of a record five winners of the Epsom Derby (New Approach in 2008, Ruler of the World in 2013, Australia in 2014, Anthony Van Dyck in 2019 and Serpentine in 2020), plus two winners of the prestigious Group I Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Found in 2016 and Waldgeist in 2019).
In addition to Galileo’s prowess as a racehorse and sire, he has proven to be a tremendous sire of sires. A multitude of Galileo’s sons have sired a Group/Grade I winner.
CAME HOME ALSO A NOTABLE EQUINE DEATH
Meanwhile, BloodHorse reported that multiple Grade I winner Came Home died July 8 after a bout with colic. He was 22.
The announcement of Came Home’s death brought back a brief conversation I had with actor Jeff Bridges one autumn morning at Santa Anita in 2002.
Before I relate my conversation with Bridges, let me give you some background.
While I was in Las Vegas in February 2002, I noticed that Came Home was 100-1 in the Kentucky Derby future book on the board at the Barbary Coast. Sometimes the price on the board does not match the price you get when you go to make your bet. Thus, I wanted to make sure that was the price before making a wager.
“What price do you have on Came Home to win the Kentucky Derby?” I asked the teller.
“100-1,” he replied.
Hearing that, I put down a crisp $100 bill.
“How much of that do you want to bet, sir?” the teller asked.
“All of it.”
That meant that if Came Home captured the 2002 Kentucky Derby, I would win $10,000.
When I made my bet in Vegas, Came Home already had made one start that year. He had won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs by four lengths. He then won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Rafael Stakes at one mile by three lengths on March 2 and the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles by 2 1/4 lengths on April 6.
But, alas, Came Home did not win the Kentucky Derby. Sent off at 8-1, he raced close up early before finishing sixth at 8-1, while War Emblem won by four lengths at 20-1.
Later that year on Aug. 25, I was at Emerald Downs to be one of the commentators on the Fox Sports Northwest telecast of the Grade III Longacres Mile. The Pacific Classic was run that same afternoon at Del Mar. While the horses were on the track for the Pacific Classic, I was in the conference room at Emerald, doing research for the Longacres Mile. Sitting across the table from me was ESPN’s Chris Lincoln.
“I am going to be sick if Came Home wins the Pacific Classic,” I said to Lincoln.
“Why is that?” he asked.
“Because I had $100 on him at 100-1 in the future book for the Kentucky Derby,” I said. “I would have made 10 grand if Came Home had won the Kentucky Derby. But War Emblem won the Kentucky Derby. And now War Emblem and Came Home are running against each other today in the Pacific Classic. If Came Home wins today, I will be sick.”
War Emblem finished sixth in the Pacific Classic as the 6-5 favorite. Came Home did win by three-quarters of a length at odds of 10-1.
When Came Home reached the finish line in front, I pounded my fist on the conference table. As I recall, there were maybe seven or eight people in the conference room.
“Okay everybody,” Lincoln said. “Take all sharp objects away from Jon White.”
Despite being bummed out by seeing Came Home win and beat the Kentucky Derby winner, I couldn’t help chuckling when Lincoln said that.
Accompanying BloodHorse’s recent story on Came Home’s death was a video of his victory in the Pacific Classic. With some sharp objects nearby, I could not bring myself to look at the video.
After the Pacific Classic, Came Home won once more before going to stud. The Gone West colt started in the 2002 BC Classic at Arlington Park on Oct. 26. Voloponi won the BC Classic that year. Came Home finished 10th.
Four days before the 2002 BC Classic, Came Home had what would be the final workout of his career. I was at the Gonzalez barn at Santa Anita that morning to watch the workout. Trudy McCaffery, one of Came Home’s owners, also was on hand to observe the drill.
That was when McCaffery introduced me to Bridges, who had accepted McCaffery’s invitation to come out to Santa Anita and watch Came Home’s workout. McCaffery and Bridges were friends. At that time, Bridges was preparing for his upcoming role as Charles S. Howard, the owner of Seabiscuit, in the 2003 film about the 1940 Santa Anita Handicap winner.
McCaffery had known about my Kentucky Derby future book wager on Came Home. As we all accompanied Came Home to the track from the barn on that October morning, McCaffery asked me to tell Bridges about that bet.
I told Bridges that I had put $100 on Came Home in the Kentucky Derby future book at 100-1. If Came Home had won the race, I would have made $10,000.
I went on to say that, unfortunately for me, Came Home did not win the Kentucky Derby. But he then won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, beating the Kentucky Derby winner, War Emblem.
As we walked along, Bridges seemed to be listening intently to what I was saying. After I was finished with my tale, he waited a bit before he said anything. He seemed to be processing what I had just told him.
After a few minutes, Bridges said, “Let me get this straight. You bet $100 on Came Home in the Kentucky Derby at 100-1?”
“That’s right,” I replied.
“And if Came Home had won the Kentucky Derby, you would have won $10,000?”
“Yep.”
“And then Came Home beat the Kentucky Derby winner at Del Mar?”
I said that also was correct.
Bridges paused, then shook his head.
“Man, I really feel for you,” Bridges said.
THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
There is no change to the order regarding the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 298 Letruska (13)
2. 266 Maxfield (6)
3. 244 Mystic Guide (7)
4. 225 Domestic Spending (7)
5. 205 Silver State (1)
6. 193 Essential Quality (2)
7. 133 Knicks Go
8. 90 Gamine
9. 55 Max Player
9. 55 Monomoy Girl
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #4
Arlington - Race #6
Picks Notes #3 Three Amigos He figures tough on the drop into conditioned claiming company, and his April turf sprint try with MSW company at Keeneland looks very competitive with these. #2 Kennesaw He didn't miss by much with slightly cheaper than this when facing winners for the first time last out, and his mild ability to press and finish might serve him well here if he gets shuffled into the pocket. #6 Temper Tantrum He draws best of the pace on the outside, and his only lifetime turf sprint produced a maiden win here at first asking last season. He can force the issue from the start. Race Summary Three Amigos looks best in this spot, and he has some forward ability that should keep him in the mix with the two Rivellis in the early going.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #6 Cat Attack Not going to try and get creative with this one, as she makes her second start off the layoff after a sharp sprint comeback score, and her only lifetime route try produced a 10-length turf maiden win at Hawthorne in November. She's probably tough today. #2 Summer Day Top heavy race with this one likely to be the main danger to the top choice. She goes second off the break with the top rider in the irons, and she chased a really nice winner last out off the layoff. #1 Risky Risky Risky She's in some of the better form of her career and is worth another look with this kind of company after losing the rider in that two-back run. She has since been back with another score with claimers, and she looks like a logical player if you're trying to split the top pair in the Exacta. Race Summary Cat Attack and Summer Day look most likely to land this, but the former might still have a bit more upside as she makes just the second start of her 3yo season.
Picks Notes #1 Curlington He made a solid move into the pace before flattening out behind an easy winner in that last one, and now he goes off the claim for a team that can do decent work with this kind. A decent pace may develop to set things up for him. #6 Dewy's Hit He's getting some class relief compared to most in here, but the race shape could potentially be his undoing. He has shown an iffy rating gear at points in the past -- but it exists, and he'd be well-served by using it today and spying the splits from close range. #9 Tap the Mojo Getting back to the turf might wake him up enough to score, but he's probably and underlaid price for a sharp barn while not in his best form. Race Summary Curlington has held decent form while changing hands four times this year, and the Reavis barn figures to be able to keep him in that form. With a better-timed move into the splits today, he might be the right one at a playable enough price.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Scioto Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes #5 ALTA SHELBY N Drew off on own courage in latest, projects ideal trip in three-peat bid. #6 BROTHER JAMES Tries to carry over excellent Harrington form to new venue. #1 WHATSTROUBLNUROCKY Controlled pace, got caught at odds-on, faces more pressure. Race Summary Alta Shelby N followed the even-money favorite in the pocket and proved much the best when the passing lane opened. He steps up in class, looking for three wins in a row, and should sit a good stalking trip with plenty of speed in front of him. Play a 5-ALL exacta.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #3 FANATIC Ran 1-2 in nearly half of starts before this year, class drop the answer. #4 ROCKEFELLER LINDY Runs best when up close to the pace, which he figures to be. #6 OUTBURST Classy, steady check-getter for Team Burke draws outside post. Race Summary Fanatic's late kick should serve him well, as he is surrounded by speed types on the class drop. He should enchance a solid lifetime resume in this spot. Play a 3/2,4,6/ALL trifecta.
Picks Notes #5 LIMOGES Slowed by pace, ran second after late money poured in. #1 ONE TRIX PONY Favored over top one, broke stride at gate, moves outside in. #3 WAIKIKI WAVE Improved with Lasix, won't be 45-1, use in gimmicks. Race Summary Limoges, bet down from 9-2 to 2-1 late, launched a strong rally but couldn't reach the pace-controlling winner. She meets several of the same rivals, earning today's Best Bet status.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #2
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #7 Flatoutjustice Ran a strange race last out as he was third early, dropped to sixth and came on to finish third; was an easy winner in May and can be very tough as he turns back from a two-turn race to a sprint. #6 Thatswhatithought Was outrun in a stakes race last out but was second two back; he makes his second off a layoff and can improve today. #3 Stop Hammertime Was second in his last two and in four of his last six; hasn't been able to get all the candy lately but has run well enough to be in the hunt in his races. Race Summary Flatoutjustice ran a decent race going long last time and can finish well as he runs at six furlongs today; could be overlooked in the wagering.
Indiana Grand - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Parrot Head Did nothing on dirt last time but his last two turf races produced a win and a second; should be tough as he comes in from Churchill and fits well here. #2 Indy Tourist Won his last two at Gulfstream and Churchill and in his only start at Indiana he won by 15 lengths; solid runner on grass. #8 Convention Is a main track only entrant and was fifth in the Indiana Derby last out; is a solid choice if this comes off the turf. Race Summary Parrot Heat is back to grass and has run well enough in good spots to warrant plenty of consideration; should be a decent price on the board.
Picks Notes #6 Uphold Has run well on or off the turf and comes in off a good third on a yielding course; can be up in time vs. these. #3 Ransack Scored in gate-to-wire fashion at Churchill last out and has responded in his chance to turf. #2 Ego Won his last two races and his latest came on turf; can get a good trip just off the pace. Race Summary Uphold had some bad performances earlier in the year, but those came against some stout competition, and he's been able to wake up and has changed his ways in his last two. Capable of winning this one on either surface.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Crooked River Roundup
Crooked River Roundup - Race 3 Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 42 • Purse: $3,600 • Post: 8:05P FOR OREGON BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * RHODYISAROCKSTAR: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. JODIE ON THE RUN: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MISSY PARKER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COMMACUTEZEE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. RHODYISAROCKSTAR JODIE ON THE RUN MISSY PARKER COMMACUTEZEE
Unknown Running Style: CHOCOLATE CHAMP (4/1) [Jockey: Guerrero Jose C - Trainer: Guerrero Diego].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureRHODYISAROCKSTAR Alternator/Stalker JODIE ON THE RUN Alternator/Stalker MISSY PARKER Alternator/Trailer COMMACUTEZEE Alternator/Trailer ROWDY RETURNS Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park
Sam Houston Race Park - Race 5 Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 70 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 8:47P QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * VETERRAN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ONE FLYING JESS VETERRAN
Unknown Running Style: CORONA FLAVRD KISSES (10/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Julio A - Trainer: Mushinski Kie], ONE FLYING JESS (15/1) [Jockey: Garcia Jorge Javier - Trainer: Guzman Adan].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureEL LUCERO DE LUNA Average BLEST AUSSURANCE Average/Trouble-prone SIR KISS A LOT Slow/Trouble-prone VETERRAN Fast LYNN LOVES BLUE Slow CHEVAUX Fast ROUGISH LASS Slow DYNOTRON Slow/Trouble-prone
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Thistledown - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#5 VASARIANO (ML=6/1)
#6 HOOKED A GOODWIN (ML=5/2)
VASARIANO - He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Gelding tallied a victory his last race here on July 7th as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again. This gelding is certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 73, 86, 90 last three out. HOOKED A GOODWIN - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a nice outing last time around the track within the last thirty days.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LAUTREC (ML=7/2), #1 FALCONS FURY (ML=4/1), #7 MOST SANDISFACTORY (ML=5/1),
LAUTREC - Finished first in his most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. FALCONS FURY - Will be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. MOST SANDISFACTORY - You think this horse is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first often.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #5 VASARIANO to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
07/15/21, SAR, Race 4, 2.49 ET
07/15/21,SAR,4,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:01 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $60,000. (UP TO $10,440 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, races for Three-Year-Olds and Older will be run at One Mile and One Eighth and Two-Year-Old races will be run at Seven Furlongs on the Main Track). (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 27.59, ROI 0.99/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 10 Big Bad Diva 9/2 Gaffalione T Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. TS 117 27.35 1.53/$1 098.6425 4 Kerik 10/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Noda Orlando W 238 31.93 1.29/$1 098.4776 9 Kemba 5/1 Rosario J Handal Raymond E 238 31.93 1.29/$1 097.9850 8 Mopolka 8/1 Cancel E Rice Linda 238 31.93 1.29/$1 097.2889 7 Hohohoho 9/2 Davis D Morley Thomas L 238 31.93 1.29/$1 096.8668 1 Claddagh's Run 10/1 Velazquez J R Weaver George FC 117 27.35 1.53/$1 096.6406 6 Gem Key 9/2 Ortiz J L McPeek Kenneth G. 238 31.93 1.29/$1 095.7435 12 Ocean Air 7/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Clement Christophe 131 30.53 1.47/$1 094.6923 2 Come Storming 15/1 Castellano J Klesaris Steve 238 31.93 1.29/$1 094.4956 11 Alpha Babe 10/1 Franco M Atras Rob 238 31.93 1.29/$1 092.2381 3 Evidence Based 8/1 Ortiz J L Potts Wayne 117 27.35 1.53/$1 091.4844 5 Rose E Holiday 15/1 Lezcano J Ryerson James T. 238 31.93 1.29/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.3575
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Not Morning Line Favorite(not entry)
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 41.18, ROI 1.13/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 12 Ocean Air 7/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Clement Christophe 50 32.00 1.74/$1 099.8030 7 Hohohoho 9/2 Davis D Morley Thomas L 50 32.00 1.74/$1 099.4540 6 Gem Key 9/2 Ortiz J L McPeek Kenneth G. W 106 33.02 1.29/$1 099.3928 10 Big Bad Diva 9/2 Gaffalione T Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. T 50 32.00 1.74/$1 097.4120 9 Kemba 5/1 Rosario J Handal Raymond 50 32.00 1.74/$1 096.9488 11 Alpha Babe 10/1 Franco M Atras Rob 50 32.00 1.74/$1 096.6335 8 Mopolka 8/1 Cancel E Rice Linda 50 32.00 1.74/$1 096.4671 1 Claddagh's Run 10/1 Velazquez J R Weaver George FC 50 32.00 1.74/$1 095.9290 4 Kerik 10/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Noda Orlando 125 32.80 1.14/$1 093.4723 3 Evidence Based 8/1 Ortiz J L Potts Wayne E 50 32.00 1.74/$1 091.1693 5 Rose E Holiday 15/1 Lezcano J Ryerson James T. 50 32.00 1.74/$1 090.9684 2 Come Storming 15/1 Castellano J Klesaris Steve 50 32.00 1.74/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.1970
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Last Race Is Not Same Surface As Today
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 73
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 MAID THE JOURNEY 8/1
# 9 DARN THAT HARRY 12/1
# 7 ESTILO ELEGANTE 5/2
MAID THE JOURNEY is my choice and is a very strong value wager given the line. Looks quite good versus this group of horses and should be one of the early speedsters. Earned a decent speed rating last time out. Contessa has this gelding racing well and is a decent choice based on the solid speed figures earned in route races lately. DARN THAT HARRY - Make a note that this one runs with second time Lasix today. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong speed figures (61 average) at today's distance and surface as of late.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 64
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 TRESJETDASH 4/1
# 10 ALREADY GONE 12/1
# 5 POSSIBILITEASE 15/1
I think about TRESJETDASH here. Has run solidly when travelling a short race. Look for a formidable pace improvement from this racer who enters now going off Lasix today. May best this group here, showing very good figures of late. ALREADY GONE - With a nice class fig average of 69, has one of the top class advantages in this field.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:29pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,200 Class Rating: 56
Rating:
#10 CHOPPER (ML=6/1)
CHOPPER - This speedball is shortening up today. Should increase his chances. Granitz has a very solid win pct in grass sprints. This gelding should be ready to go. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit. I'm focusing on the class of this thoroughbred, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. A big drop in class figure points from his June 19th race at Arlington. Based on that info, I will give this one the edge.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PAST POST (ML=5/2), #3 EPIMYTHIUM (ML=9/2), #11 ROCKA BARRY (ML=5/1),
PAST POST - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable competitor. EPIMYTHIUM - This racer hasn't shown much effort in the last couple contests. This colt hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance contests. I find it hard to play him in this contest. ROCKA BARRY - I don't possess a 'use' vibe about this racer in this event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHOPPER - I have this filed away under my favorite angles. Ranks numero uno on the TrackMaster Power Rating and is going to go off at a nice price.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #10 CHOPPER on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: 10 with [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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