Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football
College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football
Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball
College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 7/27/21
July 27, 2021
From the week concluding July 25, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst
1 – It’s not called the “Graveyard of Favorites” for nothing. Unbeaten Malathaat (1/5) couldn’t lose the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 at Saratoga, until she did. But that wasn’t the shocking part, because she performed as well as could be expected, actually earning a career top 96 Beyer after responding bravely to constant pressure before falling short by a head. What was unforeseen was the monumental step up in performance by Maracuja, who left 14-1 but would have been triple that price (at least) if there had been a full field of runners instead of just a four. This was the same Maracuja that was 37-1 when last seen finishing seventh (beaten more than seven lengths) in the Kentucky Oaks-G1 behind Malathaat and had gone three weeks without a recorded workout between June 13 and July 4, during which time she was getting over a “setback,” according to trainer Rob Atras.
But, make no mistake, the outcome was no fluke. After pressing Malathaat during the opening half mile, Maracuja began to retreat midway down the backstretch and found herself last approaching the half mile pole and appearing be done at that point. But, in an instant and apparently channeling her inner Billy Mills, she somehow managed to re-rally wide into the lane and then just kept on coming (“Look at Maracuja! Look at Maracuja!”). Despite this extraordinary performance, the daughter of Honor Code still has much to accomplish in order to enter the conversation for a year-end Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old filly. But now, at least, there’s a path. The Alabama S.-G1 (August 21) is next.
2 – “Can’t miss” favorites can get beaten at Del Mar, too, as witnessed by Going Global’s stunning defeat at 2/5 by a half-length to Madrone in the San Clemente S.-G2 on Saturday. Yes, she had been freshened for eight weeks and displayed a work tab that was light if not steady, but this was her first defeat in six starts since arriving in the States after the Irish-bred 3-year-old had compiled such a record that trainer P. D’Amato was speaking of her in terms of being the best grass filly he’d ever trained.
Though Flavian Prat provided no excuses (“the winner got the jump, but I got through”), jockeys always have been reluctant to position themselves outside entering the far turn in a Del Mar turf race for fear of being parked out and losing valuable ground, especially over a course with a bull ring equivalent stretch run of just 817 feet run. Nobody would dispute that an ideal trip on grass would be to save ground with cover and then quicken through the lane, but at Del Mar the ability to mount momentum, as Madone did outside in the clear from the mid-point of the far turn to the wire, is often just as effective and often times less problematic. While Prat and Going Global were bottled up for at least a furlong during the critical stage of the race, Madone was in full flight. That, more than anything, made the difference. We’ll see what happens when they meet again in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 Aug. 21.
3 – Jockey Kent Desormeaux took to his twitter feed to vent frustration following his suspension for three days after his mount in the Friday Del Mar first race, the debuting 2-year-old filly Seven Exes, was disqualified from fifth to sixth for shifting in at the break and causing crowding at the start of the race. After viewing the head on, it’s hard to believe that Kent was even called in, much less cited. Indeed, the filly veered in sharply and initiated a chain reaction, but it certainly appeared that the jockey did what he could to straighten her out after contact was made. Remember, this was a 2-year-old in her first career start. It happens.
Contrast this to jockey Kyle Fry’s premeditated gate break maneuver in the Del Mar 11th race on Saturday, July 17. Leaving from the rail midway up the turf chute, Fry, from the number one post position aboard Jimmy Blue Jeans, drifted out noticeably leaving the gate in what certainly appeared to be an attempt to gain a better angle entering the main course, but in doing so caused a reaction that completely sawed off the runner drawn right next to him, Wyfire, which clearly cost that colt valuable early position and arguably his best chance. Wyfire did manage to pick himself off the ground to eventually rally and wind up fourth, but there was no inquiry, no disqualification, and no days. This might be a video Kent should use as evidence to cite inconsistency, if nothing else, during his appeal hearing, assuming the ruling is still pending.
4 – Adayar, a son of Frankel who defeated terrific older rivals Mishriff and Love at Ascot on Saturday, became the first colt to win the Epsom Derby-G1 and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S.-G1 back-to-back since the brilliant Galileo pulled it off 21 years ago, and in doing so stamped himself as a top contender for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and a viable candidate for European Horse of the Year honors. And he may very well be good enough to do just that. But you have to wonder, as many English scribes are currently debating, is Adayar even is the best colt in Charlie Appleby’s yard? Yes, he did defeat his stable mate Hurricane Lane, who finished third in the Derby, but ‘Lane had a legitimate excuse (blew two shoes) before returning to win both the Irish Derby-G1 and the Grand Prix de Paris-G1. If everything goes well for both, the question may be settled on the first Sunday in October at Longchamp.
As for Mishriff, his trainer John Gosden sportingly made just a brief mention of the weight discrepancy (11 lbs.) afforded the 3-year-old Adayar on Saturday over his older rival while no doubt keeping in mind that such a weight break has helped him with many of his own 3-year-old in the past. Gosden said the Juddmonte International at York Aug. 18 is next for Mishriff. As for any long range plan for the Saudi World Cup winner, we’d have to think, the Breeders’’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on the first Saturday in November is in the back of trainer’s mind, as well.
5 – It took trainer Bob Baffert forever (or the Del Mar equivalent of six racing days) to saddle his first winner of the 2021 season, first when sending out the “other Baffert” Risk and Reward to a 7-1 upset victory over his 4/5 favored stable mate Bobby Bo in the Sunday opener, and then, in the next race, unveiling what appears to be an exceptional prospect with the 2-year-old Street Sense colt Murray, a strolling winner by almost 12 lengths despite being taken in hand and allowed to coast in the final 70 yards. The Beyer speed figure of 78, while quite good, didn’t quite meet the visual, but that’s fine.
Murray was produced by the Tiznow mare Now Now, who was unplaced in two starts but is a half-sister to Amsterdam S.-G2 winner Listen Here, to Pennsylvania Oaks winner Indy Bird, and to the stakes-placed dam of the terrific Grade-1 winning turf filly La Coronel, which means he has a right to run short or long, dirt or turf. Chances are he’s going to be good at something.
*
*
*
From the week concluding July 18, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst
1 – The disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell S.-G1 – the fastest (and easiest) decision by a board of stewards we’ve seen since maybe ever – lands strictly on the shoulders of Flavien Prat, not Paco Lopez, not the no-whip rule, and certainly not Hot Rod Charlie, who didn’t lug in but was clearly steered in, either carelessly or purposely, by Prat. In a television interview the following day on TVG, Prat said he wasn’t even aware that his actions had placed Midnight Bourbon in close quarters in mid-stretch. “I had no clue what happened. It was just after the wire that I realized he was in between us.”
Well, folks, that’s the definition of carelessness. And Prat, a great jockey to be sure - head-and-shoulders above his colleagues on the Southern California circuit and never considered to be a rough or dirty rider - appeared to make a calculated mistake, that of assuming that Midnight Bourbon had dropped away and was clear of heel-clipping range. In leaning to his left in an effort to have Hot Rod Charlie better engage his main challenger Mandaloun, Prat did what he thought he needed to do in order to extract the maximum competitive energy from his colt. And the maneuver served its purpose, as Hot Rod Charlie indeed sensed the challenge, dug down deep and got the best of Mandaloun right at the wire.
We’ll never know which of the two would have crossed the wire first if Prat had not decided to change lanes without signaling; we can only be thankful that Midnight Bourbon (who managed to keep his feet in a truly magnificent display of athleticism) and Lopez (who must be thinking what the reaction would have been if HE had done what Prat did) weren’t injured.
2 – There were several superior performances last weekend by horse and trainer, not the least of which was the second straight victory by Althiqa (and now three-out-four in head-to-head battles) over Summer Romance in the Diana S.-G1 at Saratoga that produced yet another one-two finish from these two terrific Great Britain-based fillies. We expected the result of last month’s Just A Game S.-G1 to be reversed because of a highly favorable pace flow that likely would favor the front-running Summer Romance (it did), but Althiqa, despite being forced to rally wide into slow fractions, collared her Godolphin stable mate close home while continuing the superlative form that had been evident this past winter in Dubai.
It’s been reported in Daily Racing Form that both fillies will return to the States in the fall, Althiqua for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 11 furlongs at Del Mar, and Summer Romance for the First Lady S.-G1 at Keeneland. We’re not sure there’s an American-based older filly or mare turf specialist who could beat either one of them right now.
3 – Just in time for the late-summer yearling sales, freshman stallion Practical Joke is off to highly-promising start at stud, with his first crop represented by Wit, now unbeaten in two starts, a six length maiden win at Belmont Park last month and then the Sanford S.-G3 over the weekend at Saratoga by eight lengths, with runner-up Headline Report more than five clear of the rest. If Wit turns out to be as accomplished a racehorse as his sire, that will be nice, but if you recall, Practical Joke was notorious for being almost unbeatable in one corner races but something far less than that when stretching out around two turns.
Though it’s far too early to pigeon-hole Wit as a late-running sprinter, at this stage of his young career, there is a strong possibility that is what he will prove to be. Assuming he stays healthy and continues on a logical schedule that should include the 7f Hopeful S.-G1 and then perhaps the 8F Champagne S.-G1, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt won’t have to cross that bridge until the 8.5 furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 on the first Friday in November at Del Mar.
4 – And then there’s Gun Runner, who appears on the path to where his sire, Candy Ride, always has been. With his first foals racing this year, the Three Chimneys stallion already has sired eight winners (seven doing so in their debuts), perhaps none more impressive than the filly Echo Zulu, successful by five and one-half lengths at Saratoga opening day for her sire’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, in a performance that was assigned a 92 Beyer speed figure, 16 points better than what Pretty Bird earned when easily winning the Schuylerville S.-G3 later in the day.
While Echo Zulu has been the most impressive juvenile filly we’ve witnessed so far, we also very much liked what we saw at Del Mar from Smash Ticket in her victory on Saturday. Second to the very speedy Wicked Halo in her debut at Lone Star Park, the daughter of Midnight Lute (and a May foal, no less) earned a stakes-quality 78 Beyer speed figure in a five-length maiden romp, winning like a filly who seems certain to run on.
5 – News flash: the rail is death at Del Mar. Like always. Like it’s certain to be on Breeders’ Cup weekend in November, just as it was when Championship Day was held there four years ago. Yes, things could change (no, actually, they won’t), but during the first three days of the 2021 season, here are the stats for post position number one on dirt: Sprints (15 races, no wins, no seconds, three thirds). Routes: (5 races, no wins, no seconds, one third).
Meanwhile, horses drawn in either of the two extreme outside posts in all main track events have won 10 of the 19 races. So, when you open your Form and peruse the past performances charts, start from the outside and work your way down. If you find something you like right off the bat, circle it and just move on to the next race. Hey, just trying to make things easy.
*
*
*
From the Weekend Concluding July 11, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst
1 – It may be difficult to truly appreciate the impact that Galileo had on thoroughbred racing, both on the track and in his record-setting career at stud. Arguably the sport’s most influential stallion in the past half-century if not of all time, the winner of both the Epsom Darby and the Irish Derby in 2001 was the product of 14-time champion sire Sadler’s Wells and Arc winner Urban Sea and thus truly epitomized the old saying, “breed the best to the best and hope for the best.” At stud, Galileo sired at last count 338 stakes winners, including the undefeated Frankel, certainly one of the greatest race horses in European history.
Galileo’s influence is guaranteed to carry on through his sons and daughters for as long as The Jockey Club keeps records. He was euthanized July 10 at the age of 23 due to a chronic injury to his left fore front, hours before his 3-year-old son of Bolshoi Ballet became his 91st Grade/Goup-1 winner when capturing the Belmont Derby-G1.
2 – Trainer Aidan O’Brien is properly regarded as one of the world’s greatest trainers but gamblers who have backed his Irish-based runners in New York in the past few years have been wondering what the hype is all about. Having a record of something like 1-for-61 prior to his sending Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet across the pond gave many handicappers what proved to be an unnecessary reason for pause in the Belmont Oaks-G1 and Belmont Derby-G1, respectively, even though both imports appeared on resume to be absolute standouts. Both runners left at just slightly better than even money, with Santa Barbara accelerating impressively in the closing stages to win the Oaks as much best and then an hour later Bolshoi Ballet taking an overland journey to produce a smart score in the Derby.
It must be noted that they are 3-year-olds and thus have plenty of room for further development. However, neither are considered to be at the top of the list among those that could venture to Del Mar in the fall for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup festival, a scary thought for an American long distance turf contingent that, as usual, appears at the midpoint of the season to be only slightly above ordinary.
3 – It’ll be interesting to see if Oaklawn Park’s decision to move next year’s $1.2 million Arkansas Derby-G1 up to April 2, five weeks prior to the Run for the Roses rather than its traditional three week slot, has any impact on the placement of the yet-to-be-scheduled $750,000 Florida Derby-G1, which, if tradition holds, would be positioned to run on that same day. One would think that with a more lucrative purse of $450,000, the Arkansas Derby might be in line to attract the stronger field. However, when it comes to Kentucky Derby preparation, most horsemen are far less concerned about a purse discrepancy than taking the path of least resistance towards the accumulation of points that assures a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May.
Gulfstream Park management could move the Florida Derby to the next day (Sunday), wait a week and make it a Stronach Group coast-to-coast double header with the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby-G1, or simply stand pat. As a loyal employee, whatever management decides is officially fine by me.
4 – As impressive as any performance witnessed during the past weekend was the runaway romp by Bella Sofia in a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds fillies Sunday at Belmont Park. The margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) and the manner in which the win was accomplished (she easily disposed of a pace rival and then drew off with a ton left) surely stamps the daughter of Awesome Patriot as a legitimate threat to repeat on the raise when facing graded stakes company at Saratoga. Though she won her debut by more than 11 lengths and then was beaten just a length by (at-the-time) undefeated Australasia in the listed Jersey Girl S. last month, this effort left her previous two outings far behind while earning an Equibase speed figure of 112, easily a career top.
It’s hard to believe that the Rudy Rodriguez-trained filly brought only $20,000 at the 2020 OBS June sale, though to be fair she was a sibling to nobody and her 10 2/5 seconds breeze during the preview session was visually average at best.
5 – It’s been getting worse by the year but in 2021 the proliferation of mis-timed fractions and final times of races throughout North America has reached a level of absurdity. Not a day goes by when horse players, especially those that depend on accurate speed figures as the backbone of their handicapping process, aren’t burdened with charts that are peppered with the infuriating “hand-timed” designation. What’s worse is when final times are clearly wrong, and the tracks don’t even both to issue a correction.
On Sunday alone, the Equibase official chart failed to list any fractions or final time associated with the featured River Memories Stakes at Belmont Park. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago. It shouldn’t be that difficult to accurately clock a horse race.
*
*
*
From the Weekend Concluding July 5, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst
1 – The most significant performance of the extended holiday weekend comes courtesy of St Mark’s Basilica in his nothing-short-of-exceptional victory in the 10F Coral-Eclipse S.-G1 at Sandown on Saturday. After winning three previous Group-1 races against his own age group, including the Dewhurst S. at Newmarket, the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp and the French Derby at Chantilly, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt made a mockery of older rivals, chief among them Saudi Cup-G1 and Dubai Sheema Classic-G1 winner Mishriff, while producing the type of acceleration two furlongs out that only the great ones possess.
The French-bred son of Siyouni must now be rated the best horse in Europe, if not the entire planet, and would be a wonderful addition to any Breeders’ Cup field, though he may very well have other fish to fry overseas in the fall. "Of all the times we've trained horses through all the years, I can't remember that we've had (a performance) like that," said O'Brien.
2 – A critical race at Belmont Park for older horses, the 10F Suburban S.-G2, offered a rematch of the first two finishers from the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1, the unbeaten Happy Saver, and the Dubai World Cup-G1 winner Mystic Guide. But over a sloppy sealed surface that neither appeared to grab, it was Max Player (not Maxfield) who sprung the upset in a race that proved little other than the winner’s affinity for a muddy track.
A distant third in both the Belmont S.-G1 and the Travers S.-G1 last summer and then nowhere to be found in his four most recent races (including a 24-length drubbing to the aforementioned Mishriff in Saudi Arabia), the son of Honor Code was game in victory but earned only a 101 Beyer speed figure, an indication that the others ran down to his level, not the other way around. Attached to the victory is an all-expense paid ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 at Del Mar. But there will be no rain on the first Saturday in November in San Diego county.
3 – A legitimate Grade-1 front-runner such as Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 winner Knicks Go facing a handful of thoroughly outclassed rivals that have no chance to apply even a modest amount of early pressure is the perfect recipe for the easily predictable outcome of the 9F Prairie Meadows Cornhusker-G3 Friday evening. His 10 length margin of victory manufactured a career-top 113 Beyer Speed Figure while reaffirming what trainer Brad Cox said after the 5-year-old son of Paynter finished a fading fourth at 4/5 in the Met Mile in early June. “He’s a two-turn horse, was Cox’s simple but entirely accurate explanation.
Now, with 21 races on his resume, Knick’s Go clearly has established one other indisputable characteristic: when facing top class company; he is a dyed-in-the-wool need-the-lead type. Though unproven at 10 furlongs – but certain to stay the trip under pristine conditions - he could very well resurface at Del Mar August 21 for the $750,000 Pacifica Classic-G1 in what would serve as a dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 that will be staged over that same course and distance 11 weeks later. Mystic Guide could be headed in the same direction, as well.
4 – It’s the time of the year when we’re inclined to seek out potentially high-class, late-developing 3-year-olds – those that weren’t ready or seasoned enough for the Triple Crown – to make an impact in the sophomore ranks and perhaps even steal an Eclipse Award, such as what Arrogate did a few years back. While he’s nowhere near that level just yet, First Captain will have his chance to establish championship credentials at Saratoga, with the 10F Travers S.-G1 his late-summer goal. Unbeaten in three starts but yet to race farther than a mile, the son of Curlin, at 40 cents on the dollar, was workmanlike when grinding out a one and three-quarter length victory in the Dwyer S.-G3 at Belmont Park on Monday. The Beyer speed figure was a just okay 90, a career low.
However, Shug’s colt has a pedigree to excel over a classic distance and farther. In as division which currently has Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie squarely at the top, a new shooter such as this $1.5 million yearling purchase, may still be capable of bringing fresh blood and new life to a division that remains there for the taking.
5 – Gamine has been beaten just once in nine starts. She failed to see out the nine-furlong trip in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks-G1 when third (and then subsequently disqualified for a bad test) but has been otherwise perfect, most recently coasting home to register a 10-length romp in the 6.5F Great Lady M. S.-G2 at Los Alamitos on Monday. In any other year, she’d probably be sent to Saratoga, where she won the 2020 Test S.-G1 by seven lengths, but a trip to New York isn’t currently an option for trainer Bob Baffert. We anticipate Gamine will remain in the West and be given a run, perhaps two, to prepare to defend her title in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1.
The Rancho Bernardo (Aug. 20) at Del Mar logically would be next, but that race is just a Grade-3 with a $100,000 guaranteed purse and will be carded under handicap conditions, so you have to wonder just how much weight she’d be asked to carry in order to make the race competitive. Facing males eight days later in the 7F Pat O’Brien for twice the purse money (it’s a win-and-your-in race, too) might be a better option, especially under the 122 lb. impost she would carry, according to the conditions of the race.
*
*
Monday Myths: Are Beaten Favorites Bad Bet-Backs?
July 26, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Stand against beaten favorites when they return at the same level of competition.
Background:
Terms like money burner, money hole and money pit are among the kinder things said by disgruntled horseplayers when discussing a public choice who failed to find the winner’s circle. But these public choices often take significant money upon their reappearances.
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look at every Thoroughbred race across North American for the past 3 years, going back to July 26, 2018. Filters for beaten favorite last race and similar class of races were put in place. I also looked at how beaten favorites performed when the public stuck with them as favorites in the return as well.
//
Beaten favorites in maiden claiming races win 23.8% next time with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in maiden special weight races win 24.1% next time with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in claiming races win 23.0% next time with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in allowance races win 21.5% next time with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in listed stakes races win 22.8% next time with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in graded stakes races win 21.8% next time with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.
//
When last-out beaten favorites are bet to favorite again in the return race …
Beaten favorites in maiden claiming races win 39.7% next time with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in maiden special weight races win 39.7% next time with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in claiming races win 39.0% next time with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in allowance races win 37.9% next time with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in listed stakes races win 40.2% next time with a $0.87 ROI for every $1 bet.
Beaten favorites in graded stakes races win 42.1% next time with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.
Overall Findings:
Beaten favorites win between 21-24% across the various class levels when returning for the same price with an ROI between $0.75 and $0.84 for every $1 bet. They win at a slightly higher percentage at the lower class levels (maidens, claiming), but were most profitable in listed stakes races. Those same horses when bet back to favoritism a second time win between 37.9-42.1% with an ROI between $0.82 and $0.89. The most successful and profitable favorites in a second go-around came in graded stakes at the game’s highest level.
Bottom line:
The public is very astute. When you consider that favorites nationally win about 37-38%, losing favorites coming back and only able to win in the low 20% area is significant. But notice the huge rise when the public sticks with a beaten favorite. Those win percentages and ROI jump and actually are stronger the favorites overall, meaning a beaten favorite bet back to favoritism for the same price is actually a better bet than any normal favorite. As for the validity of the “bet against beaten favorites” theory, I’d say follow the tote. The public tends to get these kind right.
Additional Details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers do you follow or fade with these beaten favorites? My test drive saw trainer Mac Robertson winning 56% when sending out a beaten favorite that is bet back to favoritism next out, while Jeff Radosevich and Tim Kreiser hit 53% and Larry Rivelli was right at 50%.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Parx Racing - Race #5
Parx Racing - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Uncle Ernie He rolled a cheaper bunch in MCL company on debut, but he showed some pace that day that should serve him well in a spot without a ton of committed front-end pace. #4 I Am Redeemed He might appreciate the move back around one turn after just fading late in that route try last time out. Tactical type should be in range throughout. #2 You Must Chill He came back no worse for wear after the layoff, rattling off a couple nice wins, and holding that kind of form might be enough to land this one. Race Summary Uncle Ernie has some pace on this hike, and the fence figures to force his rider's hand out of the gate. If he's able to secure the lead into the turn, he might be able to handle this group.
Parx Racing - Race #10
Picks Notes #3 Eight Danzas She caught a super impressive winner who was back to handle allowance company with ease, and something like that last effort might be good enough with this group. #6 Queen of Mine She's another who chased a runaway winner last time out, and she has some upside with that debut run under her belt. Better with Lasix today? #5 Billieanne She hasn't shown much yet, but she has taken action in both starts and now gets blinkers for the first time. A wake-up call would not be a surprise today. Race Summary Eight Danzas was no match for the very talented Oxana in that last one, but this spot doesn't seem to contain any similar star power. The 5/1 ML price would be appealing.
Picks Notes #10 Pylon He has some speed to use in a race without much other serious early burn, and he has the pedigree to handle the new footing as he tries the turf for the first time. #8 Bouncing Around He becomes much more dangerous if this one comes off the lawn, but the overall form is there to be a danger on any footing. #3 Mt Suribachi His form is darkened by some iffy dirt tries, but his turf form has been really sharp. He's a reliable finisher at what might be an underlaid price. Race Summary Pylon tries the turf for the first time today, and his early pace should make him the one to catch into the far turn at a square price.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #2
Indiana Grand - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Sting Like Abby Had a dominant five-length win here in the only start of her career and in doing so finished in 1:10; a repeat effort gets a repeat win. #3 Auntie Mabel Won two straight and then the string was ended last time when she was second going long; turns back and can make a run. #6 Orsetto Tired in the Rags to Riches at Churchill last fall and comes off a nine-month layoff; can be a factor from the beginning. Race Summary Sting Like Abby ran off to an easy win and signaled she could be a special runner, especially on the local scene; one to beat.
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #8 Longleggedlaverne Ran fourth in a similar race three races back and has some strong performances on her form, including a win at Fair Grounds. #1 Malibu Moira Crushed starter allowance runners at Belterra last out and was third in a turf race two back at Indiana Grand; can be a factor on either surface. #3 Antalya Was up in time in a good optional claiming race at Arlington and tries to get her first Indiana Grand win in what will be her third local start. Race Summary Longleggedlaverne rompoed on the main track two back and the switch to turf will not hurt her chances; capable of taking this one.
Picks Notes #2 Strong Illusion Tired late in her last two turf races but the Marvin Johnson stable has done well lately; overdue for her second win. #4 Naughty Justice Ran second last out and will be a strong player on the front end. #1 Miss Fort Can benefit from following a good pace; likely to make some time of eye-catching run through the final quarter. Race Summary Strong Illusion has taken on decent company and has a good chance to dig in vs. these; can improve on the third-place finish he had last out.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
Hastings - Race 5 Claiming $16,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 69 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:52P (PLUS UP TO $3,750 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES) BC BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. PAY MY WAY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAY MY WAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface. FOOT SOLDIER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PAY MY WAY FOOT SOLDIER
Line
Class
Speed
FigureFOOT SOLDIER Front-runner PRETTY ARIA Alternator/Front-runner PAY MY WAY Alternator/Stalker ONE FIFTY ONE Trailer ARBEE'S RUN Alternator/Non-contender SHANGHAI POSSE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes - Race 3 Claiming $11,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $17,200 • Post: 2:08P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CURLIN'S KNIGHT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNCLE NED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CURLIN'S KNIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BIJEMINI SLEW: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. UNCLE NED CURLIN'S KNIGHT BIJEMINI SLEW
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCURLIN'S KNIGHT Alternator/Front-runner UNCLE NED Stalker SHADOW CASTER Alternator/Stalker BIJEMINI SLEW Alternator/Stalker DUBLIN GREEN Alternator/Non-contender RINGGOOD Alternator/Non-contender YOU'VE GOT MALE Alternator/Non-contender TRY'N SMART'N UP Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33300 Class Rating: 66
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 TRAITOR AMONGST US 8/1
# 5 MIDNIGHT WARSHIP 9/2
# 1 TO WIN 5/2
TRAITOR AMONGST US is the strongest wager in this race and is a formidable value bet given the line. The speed figure of 66 from his last race looks very good in here. He has put up very good figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group. Over time, this conditioner has a respectable ROI at this distance/surface. MIDNIGHT WARSHIP - With Rivera controlling the reins on him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this competition. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. TO WIN - Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 72
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 LOUISIANA RUNNER 4/1
# 8 JJ CARTERS CARTEL JR 10/1
# 2 CASH SHINES 3/1
LOUISIANA RUNNER is the top wager in this race. Has respectable front-end speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this field. If you look closely, this entrant has some longshot potential. With a very strong 72 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this outing. JJ CARTERS CARTEL JR - Has been running admirably lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. CASH SHINES - He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group. Is a solid contender - given the 54 speed figure from his most recent race.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 80
Rating:
#1 CUMBERLAND GAP (ML=5/2)
CUMBERLAND GAP - Trainer Shea gave this gelding a good stiff morning drill. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid contest within the last 30 days. This gelding's last speed fig registered on Jul 13th is utmost in last race speed figures.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PETTINBERG (ML=7/5), #6 TIZ SAMURAI (ML=4/1), #4 IRONBOUND (ML=6/1),
PETTINBERG - Can't really play this kind of oft beaten chalk. TIZ SAMURAI - Awfully difficult to bet on this vulnerable equine when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not playing this racer off of that trend. IRONBOUND - I'd like to see more hospitable recent outings with morning line of 6/1.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #1 CUMBERLAND GAP on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with 5
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:54pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 57
Rating:
#3 PRINCESS MANDII (ML=2/1)
#2 HIDDEN FIGURE (ML=5/1)
PRINCESS MANDII - Taking this jock/handler combination is a good decision. This mare is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on Jul 13th, finishing second. I like the piece of information that this mare's last rating, 52, is tops in this field. HIDDEN FIGURE - When Bailon and Essenpreis combine forces on horses the return on investment has been fantastic at +213.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ABBMAR (ML=7/2), #5 PRETTY GITA (ML=4/1), #4 NEXT TIME YOU WIN (ML=9/2),
ABBMAR - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falters most of the time. Garnered a common speed figure last time around the track in a $4,000 Maiden Claiming race on July 6th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. PRETTY GITA - Don't feel this less than sharp equine will make an impact today. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #3 PRINCESS MANDII to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
951MILWAUKEE -952 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 39-25 SU (14.9 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in the current season.
953WASHINGTON -954 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 11-21 SU (-16.2 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.
955ATLANTA -956 NY METS
NY METS are 23-9 SU (14.9 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.
957CINCINNATI -958 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-17 SU (17.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.
959LA DODGERS -960 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-12 SU (25.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.
961TORONTO -962 BOSTON
BOSTON is 26-8 SU (17.2 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher in the current season.
963NY YANKEES -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 32-13 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.
965DETROIT -966 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 26-57 SU (-39 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
967CHI WHITE SOX -968 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 34-19 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
969HOUSTON -970 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 19-5 SU (13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, July 27
MLB
Tuesday, July 27
Trend Report
Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
St. Louis @ Cleveland
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games at home
NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati @ Chi Cubs
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Arizona @ Texas
Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Chi White Sox @ Kansas City
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Colorado @ LA Angels
Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Angels
LA Angels is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games
LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland @ San Diego
Oakland
Oakland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
Houston @ Seattle
Houston
Houston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
MLB
Weather Report
Tuesday, July 27
Diamond Trends for Tuesday July 27
Vince Akins
SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET)
-- The Cubs are 12-0 SU since Jun 07, 2018 at home offwalk off win as a favorite.
SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. ET)
-- The Pirates are 0-12 SU since May 23, 2021 off a game as a dog in which they did not score after the third inning.
OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Yankees are 0-10 OU (-2.90 ppg) since Sep 24, 2019 as a road dog after their bullpen allowed multiple runs last game.
Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Twins are 0-8 OU (-2.31 ppg) since Aug 18, 2020 when Kenta Maeda starts after a quality start in his last outing.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
Cappers Access
Tue (MLB) Rangers
Tue (MLB) W. Sox
Tue (MLB) Astros
Dustin Hawkins
Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIL vs PIT
Play on: OVER 8½ -114
1 Dimer on Brewers vs Pirates over 8½ -114
Totals Guru
Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIA vs BAL
Play on: UNDER 9½ -105
Free Total Annihilator On Marlins vs Orioles under 9½ -105
Will Rogers
Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIA vs BAL
Play on: UNDER 9½ -117
Marlins (Alcantara) vs. Baltimore (Watkins)
Two skilled starters. The low-offense Marlins. The struggling Orioles. Decent relievers on both teams of late. A relatively high total. Sounds like a recipe for a low scoring affair.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
