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Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (July 28, 2021)
July 28, 2021
Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies horses that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita/Del Mar), New York (Saratoga/Belmont Park) and Florida (Palm Meadows) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv.com. Horses are removed following their first race after appearing on the list.
Workouts through July 27, 2021
DERECHO DANDY - (J. Sadler) July 26, Del Mar, 5f, :59.2hg
View Workout
Unraced son of Connect turned in a noteworthy solo gate drill for J. Sadler, traveling smarlty throughout without undue pressure, splits of :23.1, :34.1, :46.3 and :59.2, in blinkers and displaying strength and power throughout. Has been given a good foundation and looks fit enough to make the races soon. Nice prospect, for sure.
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JACK CHRISTOPHER - (C. Brown) July 26, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b
View Workout
Team drill with C. Brown stable mate Practice Squad (same time) and looked quite promising in easy breeze while much the best along the rail, a ton left at the end while under a hammerlock. Munnings colt isn’t too far along just yet but may be a smoker and is worth following very closely.
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KING FURY – (K. McPeek) July 24, Saratoga, 5f, :59.4b TT
View Workout
Graded stakes winning 3-year-old has never looked better while toying with workmate Simply Ravishing (5f, 1:02.2b, TT), drawing way effortlessly through the lane without every being asked and still recording a very fast clocking. It’ll be interesting to see how ambitioius this colt’s connections will be with this improving son of of Curlin.
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RAYMUNDOS SECRET – (P. D’Amato) July 25, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.3h TC DU
View Workout
Loves this Del Mar turf course and appears ready to roll after being freshed since April. The veteran stakes winning distaffer was by herself and own her own in the fast five furlong grasss breeze around the cones and was sharp and eager throughout. Most effective at a mile and can fire a big shot fresh.
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SILVERY RILL - (C. Clement) July 24, Saratoga, 4f, :52.2b TC TT DU
View Workout
Juvenile filly by War Front is just getting started but so far she’s done everything in the a.m. like a high class turf prospect. With cones placed in the middle of the course, she went much faster than the official time gives her credit for while proving much best over workmate Ocean Air. The C. Clement-trained filly appears to have an exciting turn of foot but hasn’t really been asked to display it just yet. Much potential.
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WICKED HALO - (S. Asmussen) July 26, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b
View Workout
Breezing every step of the way and under a tight hold through the lane to be even but slightly best over talented stable mate Gunite (same time), sharp and eager while gearing up for another crack at stakes competition. Has intense early speed and ran very well when third in the listed Debutante S. at Churchill Downs last time out.
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Workouts through July 20, 2021
EXCELLENT TIMING - (C. Brown) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.3b
View Workout
Sharp and eager in solo five furlong drill while strong throughout and mostly on his own. Stakes-winning New York-bred colt has been freshened and the time off appears to have done him some good. Stakes-quality sort when he’s on his game.
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FOUR GRACES - (I. Wilkes) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
View Workout
Breezing half mile drill while clearly best from Liberty M D (same time) for I. Wilkes, just cruising under a nice hold while workmate had to be asked a bit to stay even. Ran like a short horse in her comeback in Kentucky; seems likely to be fitter and improve next time out.
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HOPKINS - (B. Baffert) July 19, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :59hg
View Workout
Unraced 3-year-old Quality Road colt brought $900,000 as a yearling and may finally be ready to face the starter based on this impressive gate drill while proving best over Gold Rush Candy (5f, :59.1hg) and Dubronik (4f, :48hg), always on his left lead but in front along the rail throughout, something left late without pressure, :46.2 and :59 flat on our watches. Turned in a series of fast works at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and should be more than fit enough by now.
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WINTER POOL - (C. Brown) July 17, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, :59.3b
View Workout
In company outside South American stakes-winner Breakpoint (same time) and held his own quite nicely without being asked, perhaps a neck back at the wire but always under a tight hold in easy breeze for C. Brown. Lightly-raced gelding has starter’s allowance conditions and should continue to improve with experience and distance.
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Workouts through July 13, 2021
CODY’S WISH – (W. Mott) July 9, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :48b TT
View Workout
Finished smoothly without being asked, plenty left while appearing quite sharp for Mott. Didn’t get the best of runs in his debut when finishing third in an extended sprint and seems sure to step forward considerably next time.
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LUCK – (R. Baltas) July 13, 201, Del Mar, 5f, 1:01.4h tc du
View Workout
Broke off a length in front of Bodhicitta (same time) and maintained that advantage to the wire in breezing drill around dogs on turf for R. Baltas. Lightly-raced filly from France moves like a very nice type and seems fairly fit. Has conditions and will make the entries soon.
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M IS FOR MAGIC – (P. Eurton), July 12, 2021, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h
View Workout
Comebacker went nicely in easy half mile drill while getting cranked up for P. Eurton, final three furlongs in a sharp :35.1 without being asked. Coming back better than she left, it would appear, would love to see her in a high-priced maiden claimer this time around.
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Workouts Through July 6, 2021
CURIOUS INJI - (J. Mullins) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h
View Workout
Under wraps every step of the way in solo training track drill, final half mile in :24.1 and :48.4, plenty left late. Unplaced in three career starts, most recently in a maiden claiming miler (stumbled badly at the start), but the daughter of Misremembered surely appears capable of better and seems likely to surface in a winnable spot early in the Del Mar season.
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LADY MYSTIFY - (P. Eurton) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h
View Workout
Never asked in sharp five furlong main track drill, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.3, plenty left late. Had nothing behind her when graduating by 18 lengths last time out and will get tested on the raise, but the daughter of Bernardini seems to be made of the stuff. Ready to step forward again.
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SEMPER FIDELIS - (S. Joseph, Jr.) July 3, 2021, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1h
View Workout
Barn tends to let them roll in the a.m., but this lightly-raced son of Fast Anna was under cruise control throughout in sharp half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Been away since December but appears to be returning better than he left and should be hard to beat vs. older maiden special weight foes.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, July 28, 2021
July 28, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X-
Use: Pass/No Play
Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Yodel E. A. Who; 4-Rockin the Boat; 6-Clench
Forecast: The second race, a $40,000 claiming sprint for older horses, attracted just six entrants three of which are main contenders. Yodel E. A. Who takes a significant and realistic class drop, adds blinkers, and at this level could regain his thoroughly genuine and consistent old form (first or second in 13 of 28 career starts). He’s coming back off relatively short rest (17 days) but retains L. Saez for a high-percentage outfit, so let’s operate under the assumption that the veteran Creative Cause gelding will snap back to life against this group. Rockin the Boat may have a tactical advantage in a race that projects to have soft early splits. The Churchill Downs invader has winning connections, good, consistent recent form, and speed figures that make him a strong fit on this circuit at this level. Clench returns to his claim level for Rudy and has a reasonable look with a repeat of his sharp runner-up try two runs back. Used up on the pace last time out, the veteran sprinter switches to J. Rosario, has a prior win over the Saratoga main track, and will be heard from late if given the patient ride he prefers. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Ocala Dream; 6-Step Dancer; 8-Barrage
Forecast: Six of the nine entrants in this New York Stallion Series Stakes exit the same June extended turf sprint at Belmont Park, including the first five finishers. Ocala Dream won that seven furlong turf sprint in game style by a length, but today must pick up 6 pounds, whereas runner-up Step Dancer adds two. Both should enjoy this stretch out to a two-turn mile, so they’re hard to separate, but with ‘Dancer showing a previous win over the Saratoga grass course (her debut last year) we’ll give the B. Tagg-trained filly a chance to gain a bit of revenge today. Barrage is a “must use” as well. The daughter of War Dancer, a solid third in that same race last month, joins the high-percentage D. Gargan barn, adds blinkers, and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. Improvement is likely.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Alpine Queen; 6-Quasar
Forecast: Let’s see if we can survive and advance using just two in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seven furlong claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Quasar is logically the one to beat based on two good recent races vs. similar, but with a record of one win from 23 starts can she be trusted? Claimed for some reason in her last pair and now in the R. Atras barn (a superb 32% with a strong ROI with this angle), the daughter of Orb has the proper style for this distance, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and clearly doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Alpine Queen is lightly-raced and improving, having just graduated in her fifth career start in an off-the-turf middle distance affair that produced a pretty good number for this group. L. Saez stays aboard and should have her rolling from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Raw Courage; 3-Timbuktu; 8-Regal Empire
Forecast: New York-bred juvenile maidens compete over a mile and one-sixteenth on grass in a race with lots of questions marks and requiring a bit of guess work. From what we can gather, there are three major players. Raw Courage, with two outings in sloppy track five furlong sprint races that were taken off the grass, may finally get his chance on the lawn today after hitting the board in both starts, most recently when a distant third to subsequent stakes winner Run Curtis Run. The son of Declaration of War seems sure to display excellent speed on the stretch-out from the rail from a barn that has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle, so unless one of the first-timers are better than average this homebred colt should be hard to beat. Regal Empire, a son of Lemon Drop Kid and therefore bred to run long on turf, debuts for M. Maker following a series steady if unspectacular workouts. He did, however, bring $125,000 through the ring at the Fasig-Tipton March Sale after breezing a furlong over the Gulfstream Park grass course in :10 2/5 without undue pressure while looking pretty decent. One of the barn’s main guys, T. Gaffalione, takes the call. The B. Cox stable is represented by Timbuktu, a Munnings colt that attracts L. Saez while showing a fairly decent work tab that should have him plenty fit first time out. The dam (Corner Three) was a winner of three of five career starts, all on grass, including her debut at Saratoga when trained by C. Brown.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Absolute Courage: 6-Cody’s Wish; 9-Beatbox
Forecast: Cody’s Wish ran better than the line will show when a troubled third in his debut over seven furlongs last month and has trained well enough in the interim to be included in our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list. The 3-year-old son of Curlin should thoroughly enjoy today’s stretch out to nine furlongs, switches to J. Rosario, and figures to produce a significant forward move for a barn that has good stats with the second-time starter angle. While we like the W. Mott-trained colt on top, he’s listed at even money on the morning line and there are two others that warrant at least some consideration as well. Absolute Courage has three outings underneath him with rising speed figures in each, including a good runner-up effort in which he was on the pace throughout. Similar tactics most likely will be employed again. Beatbox, a C. Brown-trained son of Pioneerof the Nile, was fourth in that same heat while stepping forward following a disappointing debut. Another forward move today should make put him the fray despite a disadvantageous far outside draw.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Passing Out; 6-Tamahere
Forecast: A stakes-quality third-level allowance event for fillies and mares on grass ushers in the late Pick-4. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Tamahere exits three consecutive Grade 1 events, so the C. Brown-trained filly certainly will appreciate the class relief. She did manage to finish a solid runner-up in the Jenny Wiley S.-G1 at Keeneland in April but was overmatched against Althiqa and Summer Romance in the subsequent Just A Game S.-1 at Belmont Park in early June. Freshened for almost two months and showing a strong, healthy work tab, the Grade-2 stakes winner gets an ideal spot to regain her confidence. Passing Out, away for almost 11 months but with a history of firing fresh, returns for Shug with a big look if she’s cranked up and ready. The barn has an excellent record (20% with returnees), and this daughter of Orb is strong on numbers and is a prior winner over the course.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Big Package; 4-Yes and Yes; 7-Noble Emotion
Forecast: Noble Emotion fired a winning shot off the bench when scoring in game style in a state-bred first-level allowance turf sprint at Belmont Park last month and today will seek a repeat score when facing open company. The 4-year-old son of Noble Mission won over this course and distance last year and based on his recent victory appears even a better type now, so at 5-1 on the morning line let’s with the H. DePaz-trained gelding right back with J. L. Ortiz staying aboard. Big Picture likes to settle and produce a late run and at this abbreviated sprint distance there’s a decent chance the race will produce quick enough early fractions to compliment his style. A perfect one-for-one sprinting at Saratoga, the D. Donk-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., and seems very likely to step forward with his best stuff. Yes and Yes is fastest on pure speed figures but is only 2-for-19 during his career with eight seconds/thirds, so he’s not really one to trusted. Also, we’re not convinced he’s as effective over the Saratoga turf course as he is at Belmont Park. We’ll use him as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Lake Avenue; 9-Bell’s the One
Forecast: Bell’s the One deserves her high weight assignment (123 pounds) in this year’s renewal of the Honorable Miss H.-G2, a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares. Fresh from a career-top winning performance in the Roxelana S. at Churchill Downs, the thoroughly genuine daughter of Majesticperfection is comfortably drawn outside and likely will settle somewhere in mid-pack and then be asked to produce a winning late kick. Though she’s been primarily raced at extended sprints, it’s important to note her career record at this exact six furlong trip (she’s perfect in four starts). Lake Avenue isn’t as fast on numbers as our top pick, but her middle distance form is very strong and features a neck defeat in the Bed o’ Roses S.-G3 over a sloppy track at Belmont Park in her most recent start in early June. Six furlongs might be a tad sharp for her, but if she can stay within range to the top of the lane she’ll make some noise in the final furlong. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Carribean Gold; 6-Prayer Book; 121-Flight to Paradise
Forecast: Prayer Book is a first-time gelding dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time, and with form against better during last spring the son of Uncle Mo appears well-placed to graduate. The T. Pletcher barn hits at a strong 23% with this type of class drop so we’ll put him on top while also using a couple of others for protection. Caribbean Gold, another with the first-time gelding angle and therefore eligible to improve, stretches out again and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. The M. Maker stable has outstanding stats with the sprint-to-route angle (21% with a massive ROI) and from where he’s drawn the son of Treasure Beach can have the lead if he wants it. Flight to Paradise is stuck way out in the 12-hole in a post that figures to compromise his chances, but the addition of blinkers, the return to grass, and the drop to his lowest level ever makes the M. Trombetta-trained gelding worth tossing in somewhere used on your ticket.
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Golden Gate Fields Stats: SoCal Raiders Struggle
July 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.
Headlines
Following this weekend’s Golden Gate racing, the track has picked up hosting the Santa Rosa fair racing dates and will continue live racing Aug. 6-15 ... The Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover going into Friday’s racing will be $2,271 with $2,198 carried over in the super high five … Friday’s Race 8 allowance sprint feature includes dominant maiden winner Tiger Queen in her first start vs. winners … Brandothebartender, runner-up in June’s Albany Stakes at GGF, won Sunday’s California Dreamin’ at Del Mar over GGF allowance winner and All American Stakes fourth-place finisher Indian Peak.
Stronach 5
The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.
1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:
Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 31% winners and a flat-bet profit.
Speed at Track
Turf Speed
Lifetime Speed
Trends Last Week
-- Favorites struggled at 6-for-26 (23%) with the return to racing at GGF, though 8 chalks finished second.
-- Horses last raced in Southern California were 1-18 during opening weekend of the summer meet, the lone winner coming out of the Los Alamitos nighttime Quarter Horse mixed meet races.
-- Trainer Ed Moger Jr. had a 6: 2-0-3 record with $9 and $11 maiden claiming winners via Plesanton. He also lit the board at 6-1 and 7-1 prices.
-- Trainer Jamey Thomas went 3: 2-1-0 with $5 and $11 scores. He won short on dirt and long on turf. Keep tabs on his first-time starters as they were 2: 1-1-0.
-- Jockey Pedro Terrero led the way with a 24: 6-1-4 record and $1.22 ROI for every $1 bet. He won for 6 different barns and was 4-for-10 on turf.
-- Jockey Santos Rivera was 13: 4-1-0 with all 4 winners bet to 5-2 or less. He was 3: 2-0-1 aboard favorites.
Pimlico Stats: Acosta Hot with Pick 5 Carryover Looming
July 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.
Headlines
Pimlico will have a $15,458 late pick 5 carryover when racing resumes Friday … Multiple local stakes winner Kenny Had a Notion will be in action in Friday’s Race 6 allowance/optional claimer … The trio of Mid-Atlantic Championship (MATCH) Series stakes will be held Saturday, the $100,000 Deputed Testamony, $100,000 True North and the $100,000 Challedon … The Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover is $1,460 heading into the week … The MJC has announced its 33-stakes fall schedule for Laurel Park, featuring the Sept. 18 Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash and Oct. 23 Jim McKay Maryland Million, set for its 37th renewal.
Stronach 5
The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.
1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:
Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 29% wins and a flat-bet profit. Speed factors continue to lead the way at Pimlico over the past month-plus as Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed was a top-3 factor for the second straight week.
Lifetime Speed
Speed Distance
Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Trends Last Week
-- Favorites underperformed at 7-for-25 last week, but added 6 runner-up finishes.
-- Jockey J.D. Acosta continued a good run at 11: 3-0-1, winning 25% over the past 2 weeks. He was 2-for-2 last week teamed with John Salzman, winning dirt sprints.
-- Jockey Kevin Gomez had one of his best weeks of the meet at 8: 2-2-2, piloting $11 and $14 scores for a $1.60 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 4: 2-1-0 in 2-turn races.
-- Trainer Hugh McMahon posted a 5: 2-1-1 mark that included $6 and $41 winners. The barn had been just 1 for its last 24 before turning the corner.
-- Trainer Bruno Tessore won with both starters, juicy $14 and $21 returns both in dirt sprints. The barn is 5: 3-1-0 at Pimlico since July 4.
Gulfstream Stats: Chantal Shines & AI Picks 47%
July 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.
Headlines
Gulfstream has announced a mandatory payout in Saturday’s Rainbow 6. The jackpot-style wager has a $458,914 carryover ($700,000-guaranteed pool) coming into Friday’s 3-day week opener … Feature races this week will be the kickoff legs in the Florida Sire Stakes for 2-year-old fillies ($100,000 Desert Vixen) and the colts/geldings ($100,000 Dr. Fager) … Nominations have closed for the Aug. 7 Azalea Stakes, which include multiple stakes winner Competitive Speed and unbeatens Kamar Taj and R Adios Jersey … Renovations continue on the new third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September.
Stronach 5
The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.
1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:
Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 30% or higher rate and showing a flat-bet profit. Avg. Speed was the top-performing factor for the second straight week. The 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence handicapping selections tabbed 47% top-pick winners last week at Gulfstream for a $37.20 profit over the 32 races offered.
Avg. Speed
Lifetime Earnings
ITM (In The Money) %
Trends Last Week
-- Favorites bounced back last week with 42% wins and 61% in the exacta after winning just 23% the previous 2 weeks.
-- Jockey Chantal Sutherland won 4 races last Saturday, including the featured Monroe overnight stakes. She was 15: 5: 3-0 overall for the week and 8-28 the past 2 weeks.
-- Jockey Edgard Zayas went 6: 4-1-1 aboard favorites, leading the colony with a 16: 5-3-1 record on the week.
-- Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. posted a 6: 3-1-0 record, including 2-for-2 with the favorite, as well as a 9-2 winner and 9-2 runner-up. He was 2-for-2 with allowance sprinters.
-- Trainer Victor Barboza was 6: 3-1-1 with a big $3.13 ROI for every $1 bet. Four of his runners went off 8-5 or less, but the inflator was $29 winner Challenge Princess on Sunday.
-- Trainer Juan Alvarado won with all 3 starters, boasting $4, $14 and $20 winners. All 3 starters came on Saturday’s card, including overnight stakes winner Key Biscayne. He’s 7: 4-1-1 since July 9.
AI Picks: Wednesday's Honorable Miss at Saratoga
July 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saratoga’s Wednesday card features the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Stakes for filly and mare sprinters. The main event goes as Race 9 on the card. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
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Saratoga // Race 9 // 1:09 pm ET // Grade 2 $200,000 Honorable Miss // 6 furlongs
#9 Bell’s the One (7-5 ML) // 29%W // 44%P // 57%S
#3 Sadie Lady (12-1 ML) // 15%W // 35%P // 43%S
#4 Lake Avenue (9-2 ML) // 13%W // 27%P // 45%S
#7 Honey I’m Good (6-1 ML) // 10%W // 24%P // 33%S
#6 Don’t Call Me Mary (12-1 ML) // 8%W // 17%P // 31%S
#5 Truth Hurts (30-1 ML) // 8%W // 17%P // 31%S
#1 Ain’t No Elmers (6-1 ML) // 7%W // 18%P // 30%S
#2 Reagan’s Edge (6-1 ML) // 6%W // 12%P // 21%S
#8 Miss Mosaic (15-1 ML) // 6%W // 12%P // 21%S
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Parx Racing - Race #4
Parx Racing - Race #8
Picks Notes #7 Factum Love Style Going against all of my better instincts while landing on this 0-for-32 maiden, but his recent baseline isn't at all far off what it would take to score here. Finally? #3 Hodler He looks like the one to beat while dropping in for a tough barn, and it'd be no surprise to see him wake up just enough to land this easier spot. #6 Mr. Tuttle Not totally sold on the move to turf, but he has some pace that might help him find the front end without a ton of trouble today. If so, he's a threat from the gate. I'd want him on the tickets. Race Summary Readers here know I am not generally very forgiving of career maidens, but Factum Love Style might drift into the double digits with recent running lines that are as good as any in here.
Parx Racing - Race #9
Picks Notes #1 Tiz Mandate He was never involved when making his two-turn debut last out in April, but he's worth a long look while getting back into an easier allowance spot for the first time since landing his maiden win. #2 Prince of Rain Reliable type has shown up in every career start, but he's probably overbet with this bunch. Capable player is a single-or-stand-against type of runner. #5 Know It Now The 4-year-old form is pretty impressive, and he brings a bullet work with him into this one. Wouldn't argue with anyone taking something like 5/2 here? Race Summary Tiz Mandate is a class drop player off a string of stakes tries, and he figures capable of staying in the mix with this softer bunch.
Picks Notes #10 Minding Millie She was a revelation with Lasix while trying the turf for the first time off the layoff. Not sure what she beat that day, but she's a pretty interesting player if she's able to step forward at all off that easy comeback run that might not have taken much out of her. #11 Zeyaraat Layoff runner might be best used underneath while dropping out of stakes company, as she could come up a bit vulnerable late. #4 Glamorous Thunder You never know which mare is going to show up, but her best stuff keeps her in the mix at what might be a bit of an underlaid price. She can win here, but nothing like the 4/1 ML offering makes sense. Race Summary Minding Millie rolled a maiden group on the turf last out, and I'm willing to give her a look against winners at anything approaching the 8/1 ML price.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes #3 ROCK KING DEO Plays to a steady beat, exits fast race, draws favorably. #6 WAR DADDY Has speed to factor a long way at a decent price. #5 AIN'T IT FUN Rallied from seventh to miss by a neck on class hike. Race Summary Rock King Deo held second behind the 3-to-5 favorite after a :56.1 back half at this level. By comparison, the split division race won by Quick Asa Trick N closed in :58.3. Play 3-5 and 3-6 exactas.
Ocean Downs - Race #12
Picks Notes #2 MISS YOU MOM Horror trip as beaten odds-on fave, can make amends. #1 BETH DUTTON 2yo was solid third behind short-priced favorites in debut at Northfield. #4 DRY RIDGE BILLIE Can rally for minor awards in third start as a 3-year-old. Race Summary Miss You Mom was rough-gaited early, trapped on the backside and in tight through the stretch. She finished second as the odds-on favorite. Let's make her today's Best Bet.
Picks Notes #5 OFFICER WHOLIHAN Better than latest appears, big chance getting class relief. #3 TWIN B FRENCHTOAST Led clear at even-money, tired after 4 months away. #1 SEE YOU TUESDAY Steps up seeking 20th win, draws rail. Race Summary Officer Wholihan was shuffled to last and finished with good energy, earning a playback on the class drop. He is a must use in all gimmick wagers at 6-1 on the morning line. Play a 3-5 exacta box.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #1
Indiana Grand - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Niece Jackie Davis Tried some very difficult company in a pair of stakes races and drops down to a level that should treat her better; in a good spot for her first win since November. #3 Myers Tiger She's been a bulldog with authoritative wins in three of her last five and could be the one to catch. #4 Jump Right In Dominated her last two and moves up in class; might be about to get it done vs. fast company. Race Summary Niece Jackie Davis will get a favorable pace at which to aim and can bring a late run at a good price.
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #3 Max Express Beat N4L company two back and was outrun in a stakes race last out; can handle this move to open company at this level. Was second in the AJ Foyt on turf last October. #4 Lontani Tired and finished fourth in a tough spot on yielding turf last out; fits with these and can run a big one. #5 Comfort Me Now Was a belated fourth last out and takes a step up in class; seeks first win in August and makes only his second turf start. Race Summary Max Express couldn't handle stakes foes and moves to open foes; can get a good trip just off the pace and will finish well at this distance.
Picks Notes #3 Timeless Rose Was third vs. open company in a fast race and should be able to handle this group. #4 Flatoutjustice Was second last out and likely will appreciate the additional round of this one; can be a factor in this move over to the turf. #6 Leading the Charge Throttled rivals to open the season after ending 2020 with a win; does well over the course. Race Summary Timeless Rose was a sharp third last out and should be able to handle the restricted company.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
Thistledown - Race 3 Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 1:50P FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CENTRIFUGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. REBOPPER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BREEZY MONEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CENTRIFUGE REBOPPER BREEZY MONEY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureBREEZY MONEY Front-runner AHIMAAZ Front-runner GRAND DEAL Stalker CENTRIFUGE Alternator/Stalker REBOPPER Alternator/Stalker AXIS Alternator/Non-contender POMPEY'S RULE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Colonial Downs
Colonial Downs - Race 5 Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Inner Turf • Age 2 • CR: 78 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:37P INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $25,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Trailer. CURLY TAIL is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CURLY TAIL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combi nation return on investment is at least +20. RED LABEL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CURLY TAIL RED LABEL
Unknown Running Style: FLASHY PANTS (20/1) [Jockey: Alonso Jose Luis - Trainer: Reardon M C], ELECTROSTATIC (9/2) [Jockey: Marquez Charlie - Trainer: Delacour Arnaud], MACKENZIE'S NOVVA (6/1) [Jockey: Carrasco Victor R - Trainer: McPeek Kenneth G], S
Line
Class
Speed
FigurePLAYING GOLD Front-runner RED LABEL Alternator/Front-runner CURLY TAIL Trailer JARDANI Alternator/Trailer ASSET TALENT Alternator/Trailer
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Delaware Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:15pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 63
Rating:
#1 SHOULDA HAD IT (ML=8/1)
#5 MUCHACHO MACHO (ML=3/2)
#3 NOT INVENTED HERE (ML=5/2)
SHOULDA HAD IT - This rider and trainer have a high winning pct together. This gelding is in top condition right now. Ran first last time out and comes back rapidly. MUCHACHO MACHO - This equine ran well at Delaware Park on May 29th. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort. This equine is number one in earnings per start. He looks solid in today's affair. NOT INVENTED HERE - Faced tougher last time out at Delaware Park. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. The last speed rating of 57 is the top last race fig in the field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BELLA SERENA (ML=7/2), #6 EL SICARIO (ML=6/1),
BELLA SERENA - Going to have a tough go of it with all the other early lick in this event. EL SICARIO - Hard to play a mount that cannot even score one time in his last ten races. 6/1 is too short of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #1 SHOULDA HAD IT on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,3,5] with [1,3,5] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9400 Class Rating: 49
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 CRIMSON BOW 9/2
# 3 SECRET AGENT GAL 6/1
# 5 WITT'S GIRL 2/1
I've got to go with CRIMSON BOW. Look for a reliable effort with the class drop. Is a solid contender - given the 51 speed fig from her most recent race. SECRET AGENT GAL - Will likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the affair. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. WITT'S GIRL - Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group. One of the most competitive win percentages between this jockey and handler make this filly dangerous.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 74
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2021 MYSTIC LAKE NORTHLANDS FUTURITY. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. MANAGEMENT RESERVES THE RIGHT TO RUN 11 HORSES IN THE FINAL, WITH NO TRIALS, IF 11 HORSES OR FEWER ENTER IN TO THE TRIALS, PAYING PURSE MONIES ONLY TO THE TOP 10 FINISHERS. NOMINATIONS CLOSED MARCH 1, 2021 WITH 42.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 TRES ELEGANCE 3/1
# 5 MAUDEST MAVEN 2/1
# 3 EYEM THE MAN DELFIN 9/2
TRES ELEGANCE is my choice. Has been racing well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. He has been running solidly and the speed figs are among the top in this group. Must be given a shot in this event if only for the solid speed figure garnered in the last competition. MAUDEST MAVEN - With Escobedo on top her, this filly should be able to break out quickly for this race. The Lasix change (now going off Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this filly.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 51
Rating:
#6 ARMED MISSILE (ML=5/1)
#5 NIN TO WIN (ML=3/1)
ARMED MISSILE - This horse could be tough in today's contest, especially since Cotto rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. This mare has the top turf rating in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here thoroughbred has a good chance. This mare's last speed fig is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll bet on her back again this time. NIN TO WIN - I sense a speed battle developing here. If that happens, this filly will be in stalking position to run down the leaders. When Stokes and Landry team up on animals the ROI has been great at +36. Landry is good with horses moving to the turf for the first time. You have to figure this filly is going to be in contention in this contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STAR FASHION (ML=9/5), #2 PRISSY JADEN (ML=7/2), #1 SHOP AROUND (ML=8/1),
STAR FASHION - Didn't end up on the board on May 19th at Evangeline Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. Finished eighth in her most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. PRISSY JADEN - This filly registered a speed rating in her last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's race. SHOP AROUND - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #6 ARMED MISSILE to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
07/28/21, SAR, Race 9, 5.39 ET
07/28/21,SAR,9,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 HANDICAP. Honorable Miss Handicap. Grade 2. Purse $200,000. A HANDICAP FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. This is a Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $200 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $2,000 along with the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the publication of weights. The purse to be divided 55% to the winner,20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 17, 2021 with 16 Nominations.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.33, ROI 0.92/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 7 Honey I'm Good 6/1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 71 47.89 1.44/$1 099.1293 3 Sadie Lady 12/1 Ortiz J L Atras Rob L 203 37.93 1.10/$1 098.9119 4 Lake Avenue 9/2 Alvarado J Mott William I. T 203 37.93 1.10/$1 098.6948 1 Ain't No Elmers 6/1 Beschizza A Calhoun W. Bret 81 28.40 1.28/$1 096.6803 2 Reagan's Edge 6/1 Lezcano J DeVaux Cherie 71 47.89 1.44/$1 096.2420 6 Don't Call Me Mary 12/1 Saez L Pletcher Todd A. 203 37.93 1.10/$1 095.7542 9 Bell's the One 7/5 Lanerie C J Pessin Neil L. SEWC 203 37.93 1.10/$1 095.4722 8 Miss Mosaic 15/1 Franco M Colebrook Ben 71 47.89 1.44/$1 093.9485 5 Truth Hurts 30/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Summers Chad J 71 47.89 1.44/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.8707
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Does Not Carry High Weight
Free Winners for Wednesday, July 28th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
DELAWARE PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 4:15 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 Charge Account 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada
901MILWAUKEE -902 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 39-25 SU (14.9 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in the current season.
903WASHINGTON -904 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 13-25 SU (-16.8 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
905ATLANTA -906 NY METS
NY METS are 23-11 SU (12.9 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.
907CINCINNATI -908 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-18 SU (16.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.
909LA DODGERS -910 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-12 SU (25.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.
911DETROIT -912 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 26-58 SU (-40 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
913HOUSTON -914 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 20-5 SU (14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.
917NY YANKEES -918 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 11-3 SU (7.7 Units) in home games when the money line is -100 to -150 in the current season.
919CHI WHITE SOX -920 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 34-20 SU (19.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
921ST LOUIS -922 CLEVELAND
ST LOUIS are 32-40 SU (-26.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the last 3 seasons.
MLB
Dunkel
Wednesday, July 28
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