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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Thursday, July 229, 2021
July 29, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Morning Addiction; 6-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: The opener is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that offers little to work with. Flat Out Joy earned a speed figure two races back that would easily win this race, and with a warranted class drop to her cheapest level ever the R. Ellis-trained mare seems the logical top pick. She also makes a positive jockey switch to A. Cedillo and projects to be the controlling speed, so we like her on top despite coming from a barn that is just 1-for-38 this year. Morning Addiction is “raised” from $20,000 but is “dropping” from a non-winners of three, so theoretically this is an easier field than she faced when finishing third in her comeback last month at Santa Anita. The lightly-raced daughter of Carpe Diem earned a career top speed figure in that outing (better than par for this level) so if she can extract herself from the rail in this elongated sprint she should have every chance. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Flat Out Joy.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade:
Single: 4-Scotish Star
Forecast: Scotish Star is an unbeaten import from Argentina, where she followed a seven-length debut maiden win over five furlongs with a victory in a Grade-1 main track miler for 3-year-old fillies by that same margin. The Grade One stakes designation notwithstanding, she really didn’t beat much in that race, so it’s difficult to accurately classify her abilities, but she has received a solid foundation to be fit and ready for her first race since October and the works indicate considerable quality. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line but likely to go lower in a field that appears below par for the level, the R. Mandella-trained filly can be used as a no-value rolling exotic single and in the win pool if she doesn’t get hammered too hard on the tote.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Seven Sisters; 4-Babe’s Got Appeal; 10-So Very Smart
Forecast: So Very Smart projects to be perfectly situated outside the leaders in this abbreviated sprint for maiden $50,000 state-bred fillies and mares and should make the most of what has all the makings of a golden trip. The D. O’Neill-trained filly sports the route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, maiden to maiden claiming angles, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll expect her best effort in her second start following a claim. Babe’s Got Appeal displayed good speed in a solo gate work over the local main track earlier this month (5f, 1:00.4hg with blinkers) in a move that should make her the one to fear most. The barn has good stats with first-time starters, so at this abbreviated sprint trip the daughter of Kafwain is intriguing at 4-1 on the morning line. Seven Sisters, in the frame in her first two career starts when facing maiden special weight foes up north, adds blinkers after flashing speed but weakening late at even money at Pleasanton last month. Maybe she’ll improve at this level at this trip, though apparently, she’s not one to trust. You can toss her in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Red Storm Risen; 6-First Premio
Forecast: Midwest invader First Premio is dropping in his first start off the claim by J. Mullins from $62,500 to $40,000 and that’s not normally a healthy sign but considering today’s purse ($72,000) and the available ship-and-win bonus money this might be a case of simply trying to steal a purse. The ex-classer is reunited with U. Rispoli, who won on him two races back at Churchill Downs, and in a race that seems likely to have a decent amount of speed signed on, the 7-year-old deep closer may be able produce the last run. Red Storm Risen is another seeking that bonus money after shipping in from Belmont Park. Freshened since May but looking sharp in the a.m. for P. D’Amato, the son of Stormy Atlantic isn’t as fast on numbers as First Premio but is relatively lightly raced (just 10 starts) and probably has room to improve for his new connections. He should enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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Del Mar Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Madame Barbarian
Forecast: Old pro Madam Barbarian, a winner of 13 races from 79 starts to go along with 24 other placings, should be able to find a way to win this $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Beaten at odds-on when third two races back but then performing much better in a highly rated race when third again at 17-1 in a turf sprint vs. tougher last month, the J. Mullins-trained mare shows a prior win over the Del Mar main track while hitting the board in her two other starts, so she looks to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go a bit lower, she may not offer a whole lot of wagering value. You can use her in the rolling exotics and a possible single or simply sit out the race.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Chasingserendipity; 3-Cecile’s Chapter; 9-American Bourbon
Forecast: This $40,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Chasingserendipity, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, seeks her third straight win after a couple of sharp grass performances at Golden Gate fields, a maiden $20,000 score in early May followed by a nice starter’s allowance tally with a career top speed figure in early June. Originally claimed for $15,000 and remaining well-above that price today, the J. Wong-trained daughter of Vancouver employs an ideal second flight, stalking style, lands a good inside post, and seems spotted for another major effort. Wong’s other entrant, American Bourbon, is another Golden Gate shipper with excellent recent grass form and attracts F. Prat. She must leave from the far outside post but has good early speed and could easily get over and secure a comfortable pace stalking position before the field hits the first turn. A versatile type, she can be tough on the lead but has shown the ability to stalk and pounce as well. Cecile’s Chapter, runner-up in her last pair at Churchill Downs, fit well on speed figures on this circuit at this level for M. Maker, who has won with a couple of Midwest shippers during the early part of the season and has another live one here. The daughter of Cairo Prince will be doing her best work late.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Lucky Peridot; 3-Lady Mystify
Forecast: Lady Mystify broke her maiden by 18 lengths at Santa Anita in February in her first try around two turns but then disappeared. Included in a recent installment of our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list, she returns on the one-level raise with a series of workouts that indicate she’s just as good now as before, perhaps even better, so let’s go with the lightly-raced, promising daughter of Bernardini on top in this main track miler for fillies and mares. Lucky Peridot also is coming off a win, hers coming less than a month ago at Los Alamitos in a performance that earned a better Beyer speed figure (78) than the one assigned to Lady Mystify’s winning race (69). Lucky Peridot, though, is a five-year-old mare with less potential than her 3-year-old rival but considering the speed figure discrepancy and her attractive morning line (4-1), she’s worth including on your ticket as well.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Over Attracted; 8-Brilliant and Yoo
Forecast: Brilliant and You moves up a notch for new trainer R. Ellis following a third-place finish as the 6/5 favorite in a $25,000 claiming grass miler at Santa Anita last month, a race in which she really had no excuses. However, thanks to the always-popular blinkers off angle, the daughter of Include has a right to improve, and in a field lacking pace she might inherit the role as the controlling speed. U. Rispoli stays aboard and knows her well. Over Attracted drops into a seller for the first time and at this level the J. Sadler-trained filly may improve enough to pose a threat. Her grass record (winless in 10 starts) hardly inspires confidence, but she has numbers that make her dangerous and she projects to settle into a second flight early position and then have her chance to grind away.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Thursday, July 29, 2021
July 29, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Use: 5-Bourbon Rising; 7-Mo Heat
Forecast: Bottom level ($20,000) maiden claimers meet over nine furlongs on the main track in the Thursday opener in what appears to be an easy spot for Mo Heat. Second in both starts this year with speed figures that are better than par for this level, the G. Weaver-trained gelding should find himself on the lead in a race that has little of it and then improve his position from there. But he will offer little value at 7/5 on the morning line. Bourbon Rising, third in the same race Mo Heat exits last month, should be prominent throughout and have his chance to make a race of it, but as an 11-race maiden the son of Uncle Mo isn’t one to count on. In a race that is best left alone, you can use both in the various rolling exotics with preference on top to Mo Heat.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Cold Hard Cash; 4-Scuttlebuzz; 7-Straw Into Gold
Forecast: The second race is a contentious allowance optional claiming inner turf miler for second-level state-bred older horses. Straw Into Gold, a winner of two of four starts and a close third in the listed Manilla S. vs. open 3-year-olds last month at Belmont Park, tackles older horses today while returning to the New York-bred ranks, and based on speed figures potential upside is strictly the one to beat. The C. Clement-trained son of Hard Spun is a versatile type that can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so I. Ortiz, Jr., who stays aboard, can choose his strategy depending upon how the race shapes up. Best guess is that he’ll draft into a second flight stalking position and then turn up the pressure from the quarter pole home. Cool Hard Cash has speed figures comparable to our top pick and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail after finishing second in a similar spot last month. He’s won three races from 14 starts while finishing second or third seven times, so occasionally he’ll hang under pressure. Also worth including in the razor sharp Scuttlebuzz, fresh from earning a career top speed figure against a lesser field sprinting on grass at Belmont Park and clearly on an improving pattern since joining the R. Rodriguez barn via a $30,000 claim last spring. The 4-year-old gelding is unproven around two turns, but in his present form he must be given a chance to be dangerous from off the pace. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with edge on top going to Straw Into Gold.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mystery Bank; 4-Stanhope; 6-Montauk Summer
Forecast: A full field of restricted (nw-3) $35,000 older claimers makes this race extremely challenging. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Montauk Summer ran well when a close fourth in a tougher first -level allowance event last month and takes a realistic class drop for the money run. Most effective when held up in the second flight and then turned loose late, the son of Summer Front shows rising speed figures in each of his last four starts and should get the proper waiting ride with the switch to E. Cancel. Mystery Bank had a right to be rusty when never a threat in his comeback last month at Gulfstream Park, but with that tightener combined with a class drop to his proper level the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained colt looks very much like a live item, especially with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. Additionally, he has a prior win over the local lawn and tactical speed that should allow him an ideal second flight trip. Stanhope, a $35,000 R. Rodriguez claim last month, returns for the same price while stretching out again and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Slower on pure numbers than the other two main players but going for a barn that hits at 23% with the first-off-the-claim angle, the son of Street Sense has a right to improve and could get brave if not policed early. Toss him in at 10-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Bronzed; 6-Vineyard Sound; 8-The Queens Jules
Forecast: This messy main track extended sprint is loaded with question marks and suspect form, so tread lightly. Vineyard Sound has run well at Saratoga in the past, has hit the board in his last pair, and is dropping to a realistic level while being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. If he’s feeling good, he’ll be on or near the lead throughout. The Queens Jules is another dangerous class dropper with several recent speed figures good enough to beat this field. A respectable third vs. $32,000 foes last time out, the son of Scat Daddy plummets to the $12,500 after being claimed for $20,000 last month, certainly not a healthy sign. He’ll be doing his best work late if he’s up to it. Bronzed, off for nearly two years, was a listed stakes winner for J. Servis and is now finds himself in the R. Rodriguez barn. The Fed Biz gelding returns cheap, an indication that his connections may not think he’ll last too long this time around. Many of these long layoff suspicious types will fire a big shot fresh and then regress, but he’s certainly fresh today, so we’ll throw him in somewhere.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C
Use: 6-Ravizzol; 7-Shinjuku; 9-Flipping Fun
Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with an ugly bottom-rung maiden claiming state-bred sprint for older horses. Nothing would surprise us. Shinjuku shows up in a seller for the first time and returns to the main track, so if he can regain his best form from last spring the H. DePaz-trained colt can handle this field. Ravizzol, listed at 15-1 on the morning line, was beaten 18 lengths in his debut in a maiden $40,000 dash in May but was “only” 12-1 and did show a bit of early speed. He returns with a healthy series of workouts, picks up L. Saez, and may be better than his first race shows. Flipping Fun is an 18-race maiden and clearly not one to bank on, but he’s a first-time gelding and has finished in the frame in two of his last three starts with reasonable speed figures for this level. At this extended sprint distance, the son of Central Banker should make some noise late.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Halo of Fire, 4-Empress Tigress; 5-Her World; 7-Benbang
Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass in what appears to be a strong field matching several highly regarded first-time starters, including a pair of W. Ward-trained newcomers that have shown extremely well in the morning. Her World, from the first crop of the brilliant European sprinter Caravaggio, looked like a high quality, win-early type in a pair of recent grass breezes around the dogs over the Saratoga (“Oklahoma”) training track and may be be ready to win right now. The same can be said for Halo of Fire, a Munnings filly who has trained like she’s a lot quicker than her moderate times might indicate. Empress Tigress, a daughter of the freshman stallion Classic Empire, looked terrific when smoking a quarter mile in 20 2/5 seconds at the OBS April sale after which she brought $410,000 through the ring. She’s a lovely mover from a barn that excels with first-time starters. We’ll also toss in Benbang, highly impressive when breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat in Ocala during the June sale, where the Shanghai Bobby filly was purchased for what might be bargain at $65,000. We’ll try to get by using just these four in our rolling exotics, leaving out other well regarded runners who hail from the barns of McGaughey, Brown, Clement, and Mott. It’s that kind of race.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Abiding Star; 3-Hieroglyphics; 4-Attentive
Forecast: This $40,000 inner turf claimer for older horses is yet another on today’s highly challenging card that requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play. Hieroglyphics, a $25,000 claim by D. Schettino (from M. Maker), returns on the double jump despite being away since late May, a sign of confidence, and if he returns as well as he left the veteran gelding can score again despite the class hike. A three-time winner over the Saratoga turf course, the veteran son of Pioneerof the Nile switches to the barn’s “go to” rider L. Saez and should settle somewhere in the second flight and then have his chance to blast home when it counts. Attentive, now in the R. Diodoro barn after a $40,000 claim (also from M. Maker) last month, returns for the same price and should be tough once again after winning two of his last three starts with solid numbers for the level. The son of Power Broker can lay within range if the pace flow dictates but probably is most comfortable if allowed to lag early and take hold late. Abiding Star, the likely pacesetter and therefore drawn just where he wants to be on the rail, is a perfect one-for-one at Saratoga, having scored in sharp style last year at this level in gate-to-wire fashion. If allowed to be the controlling speed without pressure, the son of Uncle Mo could easily get brave and never look back.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Secondary Market/1a-Motivated Sellerr; 7-Malibu Mischief
Forecast: Klaravich Stables and C. Brown are represented by a powerful coupled entry of Secondary Market and Motivated Seller in this second-level allowance main track sprint for fillies and mares and both are capable of winning if ready off long vacations. On pure form Motivated Seller is the better of the two. She hasn’t been seen since finishing unplaced in the La Brea S.-G1 at Santa Anita last December but was a highly impressive debut winner and also has won off nine month layoff, so we know she can fire fresh. Recent workouts appear good enough to have her fit and ready. Secondary Market, off the track since November, is another that has proven successful off a layoff and also shows a nice win over the Saratoga main track with a career top speed figure last year. Together they make a formidable team and are listed at 6/5 on the morning line. Malibu Mischief, an 11-time winner from 28 starts, appears to be the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can. She returns to her favorite surface (dirt) and is a two time winner at the Spa, so while her recent form is below her best we’re expecting the R. Rodriguez-trained daughter of Goldencents to take this field a long way at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-My Boy Tate; 5-Wuddu U Think Now
Forecast: Wudda U Think Now returns to state-bred competition in this year’s edition of the John Morrissey H., and after chasing home Beau Liam here 12 days ago we suspect the son of Fast Anna will greatly appreciate the class relief. First or second in six of nine career outings and extremely fast on speed figures, the R. Rodriguez-trained gelding can take heat and dish it out, and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. we’re expecting to see his best stuff today. My Boy Tate is co-high-weighted at 123 lbs. (equal with Our Last Buck) and is dangerous with anything close to his old form. Away since early May, the seven-year-old gelding was third in this race last year and is more than good enough to win off the bench if ready. The works look promising and the M. Nevin barn has strong stats with returnees, so this son of Boys of Tosconova is a serious player and a “must use.” There are a few others in the field that warrant consideration, at least as back-ups, but we’ll sink or swim using just the two listed above in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Wicked Happy; 8-Gabby Squared
Forecast: Gabby Squared appears well-spotted to graduate in this maiden $40,000 middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Jack Milton missed as the 6/5 favorite when third vs. similar at Belmont Park last month, but may have been given too much to do after lagging to the head of the lane. Today, with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., the C. Brown-trained filly may be able to settle a bit closer and then tag the speed late. Wicked Happy, second in the same race Gabby Squared exits, is a 16-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she’s hit the board in each of last four starts and today goes first-off-the-claim for a barn that has had plenty of success with this angle. She should draft into a pace-stalking trip and have every chance from there.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #4
Arlington - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Purr Sea In a 2yo maiden race without any Rivelli runners, trainer Michele Boyce might have this one locked down. Her pair draw near the inside and appear to have been working forwardly together. #1 Journeyist Have to respect the local pedigree on the bottom side, and this filly just might get a tougher trip than her stablemate who draws off the fence. #4 Iggy Bigs She gets Lasix for the first time here while bringing a significant experience edge on most of these. She probably doesn't have a ton of form upside after three mostly modest starts, but maybe the Lasix moves her up enough to play with these. Race Summary Purr Sea and Journeyist both go first out for trainer Michele Boyce, and I'll be interested to see how this pair gets bet.
Arlington - Race #6
Picks Notes #2 Future Perfect Debuter goes out of the Hugh Robertson barn, and they're always dangerous with turf sprint types. This guy is bred to love the footing and might be set for a mild upset first out. #7 Zoffa He brings two-turn form that would make him tough with these, but his only sprint try wasn't much to write home about, and he's probably an underlay here in his ninth career start. #5 Poquito Man He ran pretty well in his only spin over the local turf course, but he's probably not going offer a fair price in the win pool for a guy who still seems more likely underneath. Race Summary Future Perfect goes first out in a spot where all of the logical players have question marks, including the two class-dropping ML favorites who bring much better route form than sprint form.
Picks Notes #6 She's So Cali Nothing to really get excited about in this race, but this one ran okay in a tough KD maiden last year and has some room to improve in this second start off the layoff. #1 Ready at Midnight Cutback player has run okay going short, but not much better than that. Guessing he's not about to offer a fair price with another underneath finish more likely. Still, he's in the mix in a bad race. #7 Heavenly Scent She outran her 34-1 debut odds on the turf before that Polytrack clunker last time out, but she gets back to what is probably her best footing and has some tactical pace to find a good spot. Race Summary She's So Cali will need to come forward in a big way off the dull return run, but she gets back to the grass and it's encouraging to see them protect her again to try the turf.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Yonkers - Race #5
Picks Notes #5 MR D'S DRAGON Couldn't keep pace with buzzsaw, 25th win within reach. #6 BRANDON HANOVER Got past 'Dragon' late to finish second, gets Napolitano. #3 SMILEANDSAYCHEESE Might be asked for more speed early in this spot. Race Summary Mr D's Dragon chased odds-on Lord of Misrule and got caught late for second against many of the same rivals he faces today. He met short-priced winners in his prior three starts as well. Play 5-3 and 5-6 exactas.
Hoosier Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #2 BIG BAD SWAN Burned money with early break, price goes up in second start at Yonkers. #5 CREDITRINA Won in photo finishes at three out-of-town venues in last six starts. #3 DUKE OF LINDY Tracked duel, appeared ready to make bid, only to go off stride on turn. Race Summary Big Bad Swan piled up the checks out of town, took money in his local debut and broke before the start. He's worth a play at an inflated price in a wide open race. Play a 2-3-5 exacta box.
Picks Notes #4 ATOMIC BLONDE Chased the faves around the track in follow-up to winning debut. #2 AMERICAN FASHION Tracked slow pace, got up late to win in career debut. #1 CRESCENT BEAUTY Unbeatable at fairs, trotted evenly as beaten favorite at Hoosier. Race Summary Atomic Blonde posted a front-end victory in a well-bet debut, then ran third behind the 2-to-5 winner in a faster follow-up try. She should live up to favoritism in this field. Play a 4-2-ALL trifecta.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #2
Del Mar - Race #4
Picks Notes #4 Scotish Star Has only two starts, but they were absolute romps in her native Argentina; Mandella knows how to win with the South America imports and a good run is expected. #3 First Star Made a mild run in her first one in nine months and can improve off that performance; has gone nearly two years without a win but has only eight starts to her credit. Ellis has given her several works since her latest and has her ready for a big effort. #5 Road Rager Was a distance third last out but it was in the G2 Great Lady M at Los Al; fits well at this level and will be in the mix. Race Summary Scotish Star was all alone at the wire in her two starts in Argentina and has worked well for her first for Mandella; lands in a good spot for her initial U.S. run.
Del Mar - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Blameless Was second in three of his last six, with a win, at Gulfstream, and makes his third off the claim for Maker, whose barn has won two of five thus far at Del Mar. #6 First Premio Ran fourth at Churchill last out and was claimed by Mullins and has run well on turf in his career. Solid veteran campaigner. #5 Red Storm Risen Was second at Belmont in his last start and makes his first start for D'Amato; has plenty of punch going long and figures well here. Race Summary Blameless has been in good races, has been in the hunt in most of those, and should make an impact in his first California start.
Picks Notes #1 Lucky Peridot Was an easy winner from just off the pace last out, and that's her most effective running style; can carve out a good trip here. #3 Lady Mystify Hard not to notice her 18-length maiden win last out, which came in her third start and first try around two turns; the company gets better but she could be up to the task. #4 Did I Stutter Won five in a row until a fifth-place finish last out; her success came at Aqueduct and Parx and she makes her first for Mullins. Race Summary Lucky Peridot has an adjustable running style and can benefit from the chasing some fast fillies in this one; in a perfect spot for the mile.
951ATLANTA -952 NY METS
NY METS are 7-17 SU (-12.1 Units) vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the current season.
953WASHINGTON -954 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 14-25 SU (-15.8 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
955CINCINNATI -956 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-19 SU (15.2 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.
957LA DODGERS -958 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 40-17 SU (26 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.
959MILWAUKEE -960 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 10-0 SU (10 Units) in road games when the total is 8 to 8.5 in the current season.
961COLORADO -962 SAN DIEGO
COLORADO is 15-24 SU (-18.3 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the current season.
963NY YANKEES -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 32-14 SU (19.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.
965CHI WHITE SOX -966 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 35-20 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
967BALTIMORE -968 DETROIT
DETROIT is 14-3 SU (14.8 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.
969TORONTO -970 BOSTON
BOSTON is 7-20 SU (-15 Units) after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals in the last 3 seasons.
MLB
Dunkel
Thursday, July 29
MLB
Thursday, July 29
Trend Report
Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia's last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Washington
Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games at home
NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Chi White Sox @ Kansas City
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Cincinnati @ Chi Cubs
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games at home
Chi Cubs is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia's last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Baltimore @ Detroit
Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
LA Angels is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado @ San Diego
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
San Diego is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado
MLB
Weather Report
Thursday, July 29
Diamond Trends for Thursday July 29
Vince Akins
SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. ET)
-- The Giants are 13-0 SU since Sept. 20, 2020 after they didn't score after the third inning last game.
SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Rockies are 0-10 SU since Sept. 22, 2020 on the road off a game as an underdog in which they scored at least six runs.
OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Oakland at L.A. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
-- The A's are 0-9 OU (-2.94 ppg) since Jun. 2, 2021 on the road off a road game win which theur bullpen allowed multiple runs.
Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Rockies are 0-12 OU (-3.58 ppg) since Sept. 30, 2018 when Kyle Freeland starts after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
Cappers Access
Thur (MLB) Braves
Thur (MLB) Blue Jays
Thur (MLB) Orioles
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
Thistledown - Race 6 Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $14,100 • Post: 3:20P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MAGIC CREDIT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LA MUNECA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COLLUDE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth s tart after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARD TO ACCESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAGIC CREDIT LA MUNECA COLLUDE HARD TO ACCESS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureDIAMOND LYDIAMARIE Front-runner LA MUNECA Front-runner MAGIC CREDIT Front-runner HARD TO ACCESS Alternator/Stalker COLLUDE Alternator/Stalker RENO TOUCH Alternator/Non-contender SPECIAL BEACH Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
Thistledown - Race 6 Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $14,100 • Post: 3:20P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MAGIC CREDIT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LA MUNECA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COLLUDE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth s tart after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARD TO ACCESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAGIC CREDIT LA MUNECA COLLUDE HARD TO ACCESS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureDIAMOND LYDIAMARIE Front-runner LA MUNECA Front-runner MAGIC CREDIT Front-runner HARD TO ACCESS Alternator/Stalker COLLUDE Alternator/Stalker RENO TOUCH Alternator/Non-contender SPECIAL BEACH Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs
Indiana Downs - Race 4 Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $38,500 • Post: 5:11P FOR INDIANA SIRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. DEUTERONOMYSTRONG is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MUSTY RED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DEUTERONOMYS TRONG: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SACRED SKY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Hor se has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BENNY BOO BOO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MUSTY RED DEUTERONOMYSTRONG SACRED SKY BENNY BOO BOO
Unknown Running Style: GREAT STYLE (20/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Andrea C - Trainer: Phillips Terry].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureTALK FAST Front-runner SACRED SKY Alternator/Front-runner DEUTERONOMYSTRONG Stalker GO EARLY STAY LATE Trailer BENNY BOO BOO Trailer MUSTY RED Trailer FRENCH KID Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 81
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 JESSLIGHTNINGLEGS 5/2
# 7 TORTS ON A WAGON 10/1
# 8 SHEZ YOUR SECRET 9/2
I've got to go with JESSLIGHTNINGLEGS. He has been travelling quite well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figs. Could beat this group given the 79 Equibase Speed Fig recorded in his last outing. Is tough not to consider given the company run in recently. SHEZ YOUR SECRET - Keeton has her trained very well to break speedily out of the starting gate. The speed rating of 79 from her latest affair looks very strong in here.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 65
Rating:
#3 POWERSHOT (ML=3/1)
#2 THE FLUSH KING (ML=6/1)
#7 SUN STRIKER (ML=2/1)
POWERSHOT - This colt is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished third last out and comes back promptly. Magnon was aboard this colt in the last race and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Look at this colt's PP lines. With each event he keeps getting closer. This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the dist-surf. Only a bad break can keep this thoroughbred from having a chance. Loves the front, is breaking from the inside in a sprint race, and we're on a bullring of a track. THE FLUSH KING - Turning for home, he will have a good shot. Has much pace, and the bullring of a track will work in his favor. When this jock and handler combine forces you have to take a look. Stokes and Landry have been terrific together. The March 9th affair at Delta Downs was at a class level of (73). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so he should be in a good position. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 66, is tops in this field. (EPS) earnings per start is something that I feel can be a crucial factor. This horse is ranked at the top of the list in this group. SUN STRIKER - Thornton's agent must relish anytime Broberg gives them a mount; winning percent together is outstanding. Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the power to make his presence felt. I have to believe Broberg is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter distance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MY PAL GREELEY (ML=4/1), #1A APRIORITY LADY (ML=4/1), #6 DA'MONEY ALARM (ML=5/1),
MY PAL GREELEY - Don't figure that this pony is worth 4/1 in this race. APRIORITY LADY - Hard to bet this one after not being near the front at 1 mile and now being situated in a race of 5 furlongs. Speed kills. Plenty of zip in this affair compromises this equine's chances. DA'MONEY ALARM - The Brain always warns me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in sprint contests recently.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THE FLUSH KING - Don't look at the finish position in the last race, but take a look at how many lengths back he was from the winner. Should improve enough to grab the brass ring this time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #3 POWERSHOT on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: 3 with [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Delaware Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 42
Rating:
#1 MONKEY ON MY BACK (ML=3/1)
MONKEY ON MY BACK - Look at this filly's PP lines. With each race she keeps getting closer. Dropped in class last time around the track, and keeps in that lower level in this event. A good sign this horse is comfortable and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MALICIOSA (ML=2/1), #2 JOYCE G. (ML=4/1), #8 STILLHER (ML=6/1),
MALICIOSA - The Brain tells me to stay away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in short distance events of late. This closer will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make an impression in this contest. JOYCE G. - Will be hard for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. STILLHER - Difficult to wager on any thoroughbred in a short distance race at 6/1 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last couple months. This filly finished out of the money on June 14th and wasn't near the winner last time out either. When examining today's class rating, she will have to notch a much better rating than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #1 MONKEY ON MY BACK to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with 7
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arlington
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - SO - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 95
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 4 HALO HUNTER 8/5
# 1 YOU'RE KILLIN ME 4/1
# 3 BIG SPORT 2/1
HALO HUNTER looks to be a solid contender. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the midpoint of the race. Must be carefully examined based on the very good speed rating put up in the last contest. YOU'RE KILLIN ME - Always seems to be close at the finish line. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 82 Equibase speed fig which is one of the best in this field. BIG SPORT - He looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Is a solid choice - given the 81 speed figure from his most recent race.
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
07/29/21, SAR, Race 4, 2.49 ET
07/29/21,SAR,4,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:04 CLAIMING. Purse $36,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race In 2021 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.33, ROI 0.92/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 6 Vineyard Sound 4/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Rice Linda JL 134 38.81 1.26/$1 098.2259 9 High Heater 9/2 Saez L Walder Peter R. 134 38.81 1.26/$1 097.8633 5 Bronzed 8/1 Vargas. Jr. J A Rodriguez Rudy R. FE 134 38.81 1.26/$1 096.8735 8 The Queens Jules 2/1 Lezcano J Kantarmaci Mertkan 134 38.81 1.26/$1 096.2425 7 Kowboy Karma 3/1 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino TC 134 38.81 1.26/$1 095.2547 2 Mr. Shortandsimple 15/1 Franco M Rodriguez Rudy R. 134 38.81 1.26/$1 095.0979 3 The Great Dansky 12/1 Cancel E Barker Edward R. 134 38.81 1.26/$1 093.4988 1 Cause of Action 20/1 Hernandez Moreno O Barker Edward R. S 134 38.81 1.26/$1 093.4743 4 Skyler's Scramjet 50/1 Samuel J L Avila A. C. W 134 38.81 1.26/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.7741
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Race Sex Not Females
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