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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 30, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the Meadowlands has a 13 race card and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
5-Play Trix On Me (4-1)-Will toss last the start in the Hambo Maturity, never really had a chance. This is the 2nd race for the Per Engblom barn and it's a spot to get on the engine and not look back.
6-Lovedbythemasses (5/2)-Comes off a sharp win and now steps-up. Is trip dependent, so not in love with the 5/2 price and will need an honest pace to close into. But there appears to be lively fractions coming as #5 and #8 could head for the point. Could be in the hunt if Sears does his part.
8-Scirocco Rob (3-1)-Should like the company and Tetrick could have the pedal down from the word "Go". If Rob is on his game the post will help the price and not be an obstacle for success.
Race 11
5-Double Account (3-1)-Tetrick being back in the bike for the Cullipher barn is usually a good sign. This is a drop and pop situation that should not be overlooked.
8-HL Revadon (6-1)-This 5-year-old has hit the board 16 times in 27 M1 starts with 6 pictures. Landy trainee will have the services of Dunn and that adds points. Taking a swing at a fair price that the 2nd start off the bench will be a strong try.
Race 12
5-Let's Foal Around (8-1)-This is a race without a standout, so will look for a solid price and will use despite being 1-23 this year. If dialed on high this 10-year-old should be forwardly placed to use one nice brush down the lane.
6-Spirit Of Truth (10-1)-Here's another veteran who is camera shy in 2021 (1-21). But gets post relief, drops and is 1st time Dunn. That's enough to include in an ugly race.
7-Whittaker N (5-1)-The Blumenfeld barn is ice cold, 0-31 in the past 30 days but this 8-year-old has booked 13 wins in 57 starts at the Big M. Shipping in from Yonkers seems a bit odd, but Tetrick lands in the bike and he has steered before at M1 versus better. That got my attention, and certainly isn't out of this taffy pull.
Race 13
3-Marvalous One (3-1)-Drops to a softer spot seeking the 1st win of 2021 (0-9). Recent form has been dull but this isn't a group of All-Stars and Dunn drives. Looking for an aggressive steer and to be close to the lead at the top of the stretch.
7-Stirling Ensign (7/2)-Gingras returns, and he might be able to light a fire under this 8-year-old. Beat similar 2 back and got the top and made every call a winning one. Gingras knows how to follow that script.
9-Constntlysidewys A (9/2)-This veteran is 1 for the last 27 and is the 3rd morning line chalk, so you get the picture. This will be the 1st try at M1 and the 2nd race for the new barn. The last start was better and there should be an honest pace. AMac may find some live cover and be the best down the lane.
0.50 Late Pick 4
5,6,8/5,8/5,6,7/3,7,9
Total Bet=$27
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Friday, July 30, 2021
July 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Beautiful Temple; 9-Queen of Pompeii
Forecast: Beautiful Temple has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-pattern and a pedigree that suggests she’ll produce a significant forward move going long. The daughter of Temple City has the benefit of the inside draw that she could utilize to gain a front-running trip, and if she continues to improve as her speed figures indicate she will, the S. Ruis-trained sophomore filly will be able to handle this modest field. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and at that price offers good wagering value. Queen of Pompeii shows the same pattern – going long for the first time after two sprint preps – and like our top pick is a daughter of Temple City and therefore likely to enjoy this longer trip. Unlike Beautiful Temple, this C. Gaines-trained filly projects to do her best work from off the pace. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Beautiful Temple.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Trip to Freedom; 6-Melting Snow
Forecast: We’ll double the second race using a pair of ship-and-win-seeking newcomers in this $40,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Meltdown Snow, claimed for $40,000 at Churchill Downs in late May, shows up for the same tag in her California debut and looks well-placed for a major effort for W. Morey. The Dialed In filly does her best work from a second flight, stalking position and seems likely to enjoy the type of trip that produced three of her four career victories. With numbers that fit and a healthy work tab since raced, she seems the solid pick. Atlantic seaboard shipper Trip to Freedom is clearly the quickest in the field, so she’s always been suspect under pressure from the quarter pole home. If not policed early she can get very brave, and in her first start for J. Hollendorfer the Maryland-bred filly could fire a huge shot fresh. We’ll give Melting Snow the edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Zuboshi; 6-French Franc
Forecast: Zuboshi had every chance but weakened late to finish second as the 6/5 favorite in her debut at Los Alamitos earlier this month but gets her chance to make amends today while switching to grass and landing the good inside post. The juvenile daughter of the promising freshman stallion Straight Fire was six lengths clear of the rest, so if she produces a forward move today as expected she’ll be hard to catch. French Frac, second when well-backed (2-1) in her debut sprinting on turf at Gulfstream Park in early June, is another second-time starter with a right to step forward with a race under her belt. She actually earned a slightly better speed figure than our top pick though we suspect she’s not quite as quick. The first-timers don’t really impress, so let’s stick just these two while preferring Zuboshi on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-I’m the Boss of Me; 5-Taming the Tigress
Forecast: This is another race we’ve boiled down to two main players, both trained by P. Miller. I’m the Boss of Me returned off a long layoff and pulverized a soft maiden $30,000 claiming field at Los Alamitos by 11 lengths and today is protected in starter’s allowance company while adding Lasix. She shows two excellent workouts over the Del Mar main track to indicate she’s ready to step forward once again, so with A. Cedillo riding her back the daughter of Midshipman should be hard to catch right back. Taming the Tigress likewise ran well in her seasonable bow off a layoff, finishing a willing second in her return to racing at Santa Anita last month. She’s not as quick as her stable mate but projects to inherit a good stalking journey and then have her chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Preference on top goes to I’m the Boss of Me but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 10-Lena’s Big Day
Forecast: This is a split of today’s opener, a maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. Lena’s Big Day was given an educational run last month at Santa Anita in her sprint debut when never really being asked until the final furlong and then responding late to wind up a willing fourth, beaten less than three lengths. The daughter of Mr. Big seems certain to step forward with that tightener behind her and today’s stretch out to a two-turn mile. The main concern is her 10-hole post but F. Prat stays aboard the C. Gaines-trained filly, who at 7/2 on the morning line offers good gambling value in the win pool and as rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-The Chosen Vron; 4-Atomic Drop
Forecast: The Chosen Vron is a standout on resume in this seven-furlong sprint restricted to California-bred 3-year-olds, with the main obstacle his rail post position in the seven runner affair. He’ll likely get outrun early and then be maneuvered to the more favorable lanes outside before launching his bid from the quarter pole home. He’s 6/5 on the morning line and deserves to be. Atomic Drop left his previous form far behind when trouncing maidens by eight widening lengths last month with a 90 Beyer speed figure, which happens to equal the career-best mark of the race favorite. He’ll have to carry his speed an extra furlong today while taking on tougher foes, but the manner in which the son of Mucho Macho Man dispatched of his rivals indicates he could easily be up to this level of competition. Preference on top goes to The Chosen Von but we’ll have tickets using both in all of our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Luvluv; 6-Lure Him In
Forecast: This 11-furlong mini-marathon for older horses has drawn a full field of 10; we’ve boiled it down to two main players but if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Luvluv has never had much success over the Del Mar turf course and like most of these is unproven around three turns, but his recent form shows improvement, and his numbers are solid, so if he can stay the trip, he can pull off a mild surprise at 6-1. The J. Sadler-trained gelding likely will settle in mid-pack and then have his chance to produce a winning late kick. Lure Him In was overmatched in the San Juan Capistrano-G3 last month but fits much better at this level and projects to enjoy a stalking, second flight trip, ideal for a one-paced staying grinder. He’s been first or second in nine of 18 career starts and usually can be counted on for a good try.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Paint Me Lucky; 5-Sometimes Always; 7-Poseidon Wrath
Forecast: Paint Me Lucky is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and certainly is capable of winning this bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint, but he just failed in a similar spot at Los Alamitos at 6/5 and has never been one to trust. You have to use him in rolling exotic play but from the dreaded rail he’ll not likely offer any wagering value. Those that will be better prices and have a reasonable look to upset the chalk include Sometimes Always and Poseidon Wrath. The former, claimed in three of his last four starts, is a Churchill Dows invader eligible for the ship-and-win bonus money with speed figures that make him competitive for a high-percentage outfit, while the latter is a dangerous class dropper with enough speed to gain control early and perhaps get very brave with that type of front-running trip.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Friday, July 30, 2021
July 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 7-Laoban’s Legacy; 8-Sugar and Speights
Forecast: Let’s go with a couple of newcomers in this state-bred maiden juvenile sprint for fillies. Laoban’s Legacy shows a modest series of local drills but brought $150,000 through the ring at the OBS April sale after previewing in 10 seconds flat while displaying a long, athletic stride and accomplishing the move without undue urging. The barn is about average with debut runners, but this filly looks like a win-early type and should be fit enough to fire a big shot first crack out of the box. Sugar and Speights goes for the C. Clement barn (23% with a massive ROI with first timers), and with his main man J. Rosario taking the call this filly has the look of a very live item. She was reasonably competitive with runaway debut runner (and subsequently stakes-placed) Ready A. P. in a gate work July 15 in which she broke slowly but displayed good speed to move up and complete the work while pretty much head-and-head in :48 flat). Drawn comfortable outside, the daughter of Speightster will likely be prominent throughout, assuming she leaves with her field.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Restored Order/1a-Hyperfocus; 6-Risk Manager
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. The T. Pletcher barn sends out a dangerous one-two punch in this $40,000 middle distance affair restricted to 3-year-olds, and the coupled entry, which includes a speed horse and a closer, is certain to take plenty of money. Restored Order drops into a seller for the first time and should be the controlling speed based on his two prior grass outings, one of which produced a gate-to-wire victory over this course and distance last year that produced a strong speed figure. Obviously, this $420,000 auction purchase must have issues for his connections to be giving up on him after just five starts that includes a poor recent outing in the slop in an off-the-grass affair but if he can make the running without pressure, he could be tough to catch. Stable mate Hyperfocus, freshened since early May, is another with the first-time-for-a-tag angle as the Repole Stable starts to cull its roster to make room for new blood. Unplaced in his last pair against stakes competition but earning speed figures in both races that make him a strong fit at this level, the son of Constitution shows a recent work tab at Monmouth Park that isn’t flashy but is healthy and indicates fitness. We’ll also toss in Risk Manager, a first-of-the-claim play for D. Gargan (a remarkable 39% with a powerful flat-bet profit with this angle) making his first start since early May, when he was haltered for $50,000. This class drop might be considered a negative, but the stable runs them where they can win and this son of Lookin At Luck has been training steadily at the Spa for several weeks. Because he won his debut, he’s proven he can fire fresh.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Kasim; 6-Ahead of Plan; 10-Montauk Daddy
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. It’s a restricted (nw-3) wide open affair for $35,000 claimers that requires as much coverage in rolling exotic play as your budget will allow. Kasim is one of those automatic first-off-the-claim plays for the D. Gargan barn, and in a race that should have quick early splits this colt will have every opportunity to settle early and kick home strongly late. Away since late May but showing a good, healthy local work tab, the son of Munnings picks up L. Saez, and with clear sailing through the lane he may be able to tag the speed at a decent price. Ahead of Plan can be tough on the lead or from off the pace but we’d actually prefer to see patient tactics employed today. The C. Brown-trained gelding has several back speed figures that would beat this field, and the son of Big Drama should be well-positioned to make amends for finishing second as the favorite in a similar affair last month at Belmont Park. Montauk Daddy, freshened since May and dropping to a realistic level (but remaining about his claim price), is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as he can. The barn has strong stats with layoff runners, so while the work tab looks a little light we’re expecting this speedy colt to fire a big shot off the bench. I. Ortiz, Jr. will try to hold him together in the final furlong.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Too Early; 6-Control Group
Forecast: Too Early and Control Group know each other well and square off again in this nine-furlong main track state-bred second level optional claiming event. ‘Group got the best of ‘Early when winning this condition in mid-June at Belmont Park but is eligible to return in the same spot today because once again he’s entered for the $45,000 tag, though today he has to pick up four pounds and will carry 126. A real pro, the veteran son of Posse shows 17 career wins, including four scores from seven starts at the Spa. He’ll be tough, he always is. Too Early went down by a length to his rival in the aforementioned race in June and then returned to get nosed out in a similar spot earlier this month at Belmont Park while 14 lengths clear of the rest, an effort that equaled his career top speed figure. The Distorted Humor gelding should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic with perhaps a very slight edge on top to Too Early.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
Use: 10-Coach Bahe; 11-The Big Kahuna; 12-Ajhar
Forecast: The main contention in this elongated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers is drawn outside. The Big Kahuna, a four-year-old with just three career starts and away since late May, surfaces in a seller for the first time and clearly has (or had) issues, but against this group the T. Pletcher-trained gelding should be hard to contain if he has at least one good one left. His only fast track outing resulted in a debut maiden score at Gulfstream Park in November of 2019, after which he disappeared until April of this year. Good enough on numbers to win, the son of Bayern attracts I. Ortiz, Jr. so let’s assume he’s okay for at least today. Coach Bahe shows six consecutive off-the-board finishes since breaking his maiden in the mud at Fair Grounds almost 18 months ago. Yet, he’s quite competitive on numbers and at this seven furlong trip the P. Bauer-trained son of Take Charge Indy should be able to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Ajhar was a voided claim last May but returns at the same level so we’ll assume he’s okay and projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip outside, in the clear, and ready to pounce when called upon. He’s been a two-turner most of this career, but his form suggests he’ll appreciate this trip and distance.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Top Gun Girl; 4-Slipstream; 8-Fan the Fire; 9-Castle Leoch
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. The W. Ward-trained Castle Leoch seems certain to get plenty of play, though we’re not really sure how much horse he is. Beaten at 3/5 in his debut at Gulfstream Park in May in a modest affair, the son of American Pharoah shows a couple of recent breezes around dogs on grass over the Saratoga training course, one fairly decent, the other not so much. We suspect a good colt – or filly - can beat him today, but is there one in the field? Ward’s other entrant is the one we’re most interested in. Top Gun Girl has been training slow and easy at Keeneland before arriving at the Spa but shows a :34 1/5 three-furlong bullet drill at Palm Meadows on grass way back in mid-March (she was off for two months following that drill). Ward is an amazing 33% with first timers that have produced a significant ROI, so we suspect this daughter of Air Force One is cranked up and ready to roll. Among the others with credentials are Slipstream, a second time starter from the C. Clement barn (20% with this angle) that probably is better than his first race shows, and Fan the Fire, a first-timer bred for turf (Hard Spun) with a solid work tab for the powerful M. Maker/I. Ortiz, Jr. combo.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Winter Pool; 9-Runnin’ Ray
Forecast: Winter Pool is a lightly-raced, late-developing four-year-old who has worked well enough since arriving at Saratoga to make our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” List. Beaten a head in a similar starter’s allowance router at Churchill Downs last month that produced a strong, career-top speed figure, the son of Curlin has had only three career outings and seems very likely to continue developing for C. Brown. R. Santana stays aboard and should have him in an ideal stalking position with every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Runnin’ Ray won a freaky fast waiver protected $20,000 claiming one-turn miler at Churchill Downs by 11 lengths with monster speed figure in mid-June off a nine-month layoff. If can turn in two alike and carry his speed nine furlongs over a testing Saratoga main track he certainly can win again and therefore is a “must use” in rolling exotic play, at least as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Eyes On Target; 2-Galawi; 8-Compliant; 10-Box N Score
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. French import Galawi produced a furious turn of foot to graduate in his U.S. debut in a visually pleasing performance after rallying behind crawling splits to get up in time. The son of Dubawi should enjoy today’s added distance and could develop into a very nice older turf performer for G. Motion. This will be just his fourth career start, so further improvement is probable. Box N Score and Compliant, two-three finishers while heads apart in a similar affair at Belmont Park in mid-June, both can handle the distance, and both are in top barns with solid recent form. They may lack the upside of Galawi but certainly project to be in the fray throughout. Eyes on Target ran well in both of his previous starts at Churchill Downs, recently winning a maiden affair on the front end after rallying from far back to finish a close second in his debut. The son of Exaggerator strikes us as a one-paced grinder with the ability to run all day, so with another forward move from his preferred inside draw the W. Mott-trained colt should have a chance to step up at a decent price. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-First Captain; 5-Beren
Forecast: First Captain is undefeated in three starts, most recently winning the one-turn mile Dwyer S.-G3 at 40 cents on the dollar. The son of Curlin had to make hard work of it and earned his lowest Beyer speed figure (90) of his three-race career, but today he gets his chance at nine furlongs around two turns and we’re expecting Shug’s colt to relish these conditions. If he has designs on taking on the big boys in the Travers S.-G1 later this month, this is a race he has to win. Beren, victorious in his last two races by a combined 20 lengths and a winner in five of his last six starts, clearly is the one to fear most, though an argument can be made that he’ll need a wet track to have his best chance. Certainly, this is the toughest assignment he’s faced, but the Parx shipper, mostly likely the controlling speed, blew out in 46 3/5 seconds last week over the local main track to indicate he’s fit, sharp, and ready to prove his worth. In an intriguing race for 3-year-olds, we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press keying First Captain on top.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 6-Mill Stone Creek; 10-Highway Queen; 12-To the Tune
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. A full field of New York-bred maiden claiming fillies and mares appears to have a logical top pick in Highway Queen, a lightly-raced filly trying two-turns for the first time in her first off the claim for M. Maker. A willing third with a good figure sprinting on grass at Belmont Park last month, the daughter of Super Saver switches to T. Gaffalione and seems certain to improve with experience and distance for her new connections. Mill Stone Creek and To the Tune are two others that deserve consideration. The former removes blinkers, stretches out, and has hit the board in both of her turf outings to date, while the latter, in the frame in her last two starts, is drawn poorly outside but should have enough tactical speed to get over and to secure a decent stalking position and then have her chance from there.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Charles Town - Race #6
Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 Livin a Dream She's a bit interesting from the fence while moving around two turns at this trip, as there isn't a ton of speed signed on tonight, and she has flashed enough pace at this kind of trip to potentially control the tempo tonight. #5 Mae Sai Princess She goes off the claim for a capable team and owns a little bit of tactical pace, but I fear she's a bit overbet off a long string of races in which she was no serious threat to the winner. #7 Stated It's not going to take much to run third in this bad spot, and this one is probably capable of something a little bit better here. Race Summary Livin a Dream might be able to try and take this to them from the gate out of the rail draw, and she's worth a look with the locals for the first time.
Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes #5 Run On Energy She may offer a mid-range playable price in here, but she figures for a really nice trip spying a couple of speedy types in the early going. Interesting at anything like the 6/1 ML price. #7 Hell Of Afire I wouldn't be too excited to take a short price here while taking a drop off the bench that isn't exactly encouraging, but she does have a major class edge on these and may be able to handle them. #4 Like Me Or Not She looks best of the speed types, but she has been known to fade hard late, so she's tough to trust at what may not be a very appealing price. Race Summary Run On Energy can draft a really good trip while running a few lengths off a pair of pace players, and she's fairly reliable in a race where that type is at a premium.
Picks Notes #1 Stephanopoulos He might be the right one to beat the likely chalk, as he brings some tactical pace and some consistent running lines. Worth a look. #9 Lookin' Smart He drops to the lowest level of his career, but this has been a quick fall for a guy who was a local MSW winner a few starts back. He probably wins this, but I can't entertain a play here at anything like the 3/5 ML price. #6 Prince Valeski He's not always a sure thing late, but he has some positional pace that might keep him in the mix from the start. Good enough for a piece. Race Summary Stephanopoulos usually runs his race, and that might be enough to catch a potentially bad dropper in Lookin' Smart. While that guy is logical here, he's a principled play against at a short price.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Meadowlands - Race #4
Yonkers - Race #7
Picks Notes #7 TEMPORAL HANOVER Slowed by tired leader, full of run in stretch, today's Best Bet. #2 KING OF THE NORTH Perfect in three starts and running faster each time. #1 LOOKS LIKE MONI Brushed to lead against top pair but came up short in stretch. Race Summary King of the North rallied first-over and won the battle of the unbeatens against Temporal Hanover, but the outcome could be reversed in the Peter Haughton Memorial eliminations. Temporal Hanover got the worst of it while tracking a tired leader in the pocket and re-grouped with a burst between rivals too late.
The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes #1 GLOBETROTTING Mare won 2 of last 3 in fast times, steps up, one to beat from rail. #6 DRAZZMATAZZ Pocket trip turned bad last out, use in all gimmick wagers at 20-1. #3 CHAMPAGNE ON ICE Third against better, continues to pile up the checks. Race Summary Globetrotting zipped around Pocono Downs to win twice in July as the odds-on favorite. The 4-year-old has plenty of back class to take on mostly male rivals from the rail. Play a 1, 6/1, 3, 6/ALL trifecta.
Picks Notes #4 WHAT IN SAM HILL Seeks re-run of career debut, not his troubled second start. #2 FATHER CARTER Showed pulse against Burke-trained runaway in third qualifier. #1 JULIAS BAR Demolished field in qualifier, went off stride in first race. Race Summary What In Sam Hill got caught late in a solid debut race at Scioto Downs marred by four rivals who broke stride. Then he broke stride in a sire stakes follow-up race. He has little to beat if he stays flat today. Play 4-1 and 4-2 exactas.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #2
Del Mar - Race #6
Picks Notes #3 V Bucks Romped in a maiden claiming race here in June and didn't get untracked in her first against winners; gets Prat for this run and can run them down. #6 Melting Snow Was an easy winner and was claimed last out at Churchill; claimed by Morey last out and can mix it up with these from the beginning. #1 Mucha Woman Tired in the Melair and won at this level in March; turns back in distance and can be a factor in this sprint. Race Summary V Bucks gets a fast pace ahead of her and has a good chance to uncork a big rally down the lane.
Del Mar - Race #7
Picks Notes #5 Letsgetlucky Was third in The Chosen Vron in the Echo Eddie and was recently second in a turf stakes race; returns to dirt and could be the one to catch. #1 The Chosen Vron Has won four of five including a pair of Grade 3 races; clearly talented and will be short on the board. #3 Top Harbor Lost the Oak Tree Special at Pleasanton by a neck and could benefit from this distance. Race Summary Letsgetlucky has the speed to get to the lead and has the opportunity for the upset going seven furlongs.
Picks Notes #1 Farquhar Closed well for second going 1 1-4 miles but uncharacteristically vied for the lead in a shorter race in his next out; can get a more relaxed trip and can get the distance. #5 Liberal Closed well in his last three and is better the farther he goes; one to hold off. #6 Lure Him In Was fifth in the G3 San Juan Capistrano last out and enjoys the longer races; chance for a major slice. Race Summary Farquhar was sent last time and has nothing left; he's likely to get back to his normal style of coming from off the pace.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park
Ellis Park - Race 6 Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $51,000 • Post: 3:10P (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR $20,000 OR LESS IN LAST 5 STARTS). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS.)
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MOMOA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRAIRIE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STEELY DANZA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. MOMOA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. PRAIRIE STEELY DANZA MOMOA
Unknown Running Style: THIRTYEIGHT (5/2) [Jockey: Leparoux Julien R - Trainer: Wilkes Ian R], URBAN HOPE (20/1) [Jockey: Gomez Agustin - Trainer: Matejka Pavel], JURA (12/1) [Jockey: Cannon Declan - Trainer: McGaughey J Reeve], OP ED (5/1) [Jockey: B
Line
Class
Speed
FigureMOMOA Front-runner PRAIRIE Stalker MAKAI Stalker STEELY DANZA Alternator/Stalker
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
Del Mar - Race 4 Starter Allowance $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 5:30P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. BIG ANDY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * AGREETODISAGREE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. DANCING DANA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THE GREAT H AYNES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ELGOFRANCO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BIG ANDY: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. AGREETODISAGREE DANCING DANA THE GREAT HAYNES ELGOFRANCO BIG ANDY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureI'M THE BOSS OF ME Front-runner ELGOFRANCO Front-runner TAMING THE TIGRESS Stalker DANCING DANA Stalker PISTACHIO PRINCESS Stalker THE GREAT HAYNES Alternator/Stalker AGREETODISAGREE Alternator/Stalker BIG ANDY Trailer
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 79
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING ALLOWED 3 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 8 GRAVY HOUND 9/2
# 7 VENN 10/1
# 9 CUSTOM DEELITE 8/1
I think GRAVY HOUND is a very good choice. He should be given a chance given the very good speed numbers. He looks quite good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest. VENN - Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 75 speed fig which is one of the best in this field. Looks strong versus this group of horses in this race and will probably be one of the leaders.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 4:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 99
Rating:
#5 HONEYMOONZ OVER (ML=9/2)
#7 ITALIANO (ML=3/1)
#1 SUNSET DRAGUNN (ML=8/5)
#2 SEQUENTIALLY (ML=4/1)
HONEYMOONZ OVER - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. ITALIANO - I am keen on that last race on Jul 4th at Pleasanton where he ran first. Changes tracks from last out at Pleasanton to here. Multiple wins at different racing venues tell me this thoroughbred likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. You have to like that recent race figure, 97, which is the highest last race fig of this group. SUNSET DRAGUNN - I certainly see positive things for this steed right here. SEQUENTIALLY - This jock/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +23. A horse like this one, almost always on the board, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Finished fourth at Pleasanton last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 4/1 in today's race, he looks like a possible contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TORPEDO AWAY (ML=6/1),
TORPEDO AWAY - The strong exertion last time around the track may knock this gelding off stride this time around.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #5 HONEYMOONZ OVER on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Monmouth Park - Race #2 - Post: 5:30pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#5 FLATEXCEL (ML=4/1)
#7 ARRIVEDERCI (ML=8/1)
#2 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE (ML=5/2)
FLATEXCEL - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. ARRIVEDERCI - This horse should be motoring in the stretch. BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE - Mitchell was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. This gelding is number one in earnings per race. Take a good look at this horse before the race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MAC'S REVOLUTION (ML=8/5), #4 INDIAN GULCH (ML=9/2),
MAC'S REVOLUTION - This morning-line favorite ran on Jul 3rd and hasn't had a morning drill since then. INDIAN GULCH - Don't think this entrant will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #5 FLATEXCEL to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arlington
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 70
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 5 CHOPPER 3/1
# 4 IRISH LIGHTED ROAD 3/1
# 6 PACHI 9/2
I back CHOPPER here. Should compete soundly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. Could best this group of animals here, showing competitive figures of late. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (60 average) at today's distance and surface lately. IRISH LIGHTED ROAD - Looks solid versus this group and will probably be one of the front-runners. The speed figure of 70 from his most recent affair looks strong in here.
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
07/30/21, GP, Race 6, 4.40 ET
07/30/21,GP,6,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $37,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. Weight, 120 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 30 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 24 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 28.57, ROI 0.96/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 5 Crystal Coast 5/1 Camacho S David Carlos A. TS 321 37.07 1.18/$1 098.1748 9 Sunshine City 4/1 Reyes L Dibona Bobby S. W 78 44.87 1.69/$1 098.1733 8 Kate's Kingdom 7/2 Zayas E J De La Cerda Armando F 321 37.07 1.18/$1 098.0370 7 Alexandra Am I 8/1 Martinez G A Sano Antonio L 321 37.07 1.18/$1 097.2959 4 Appointed 9/2 Vasquez M A McKanas Leon J. 321 37.07 1.18/$1 096.3463 1 Irazu 4/1 Meneses M Rodriguez Angel M. C 321 37.07 1.18/$1 092.1218 6 Queen Street 10/1 Jaramillo E Fawkes David JE 78 44.87 1.69/$1 090.0676 2 Lil Annie Rose 30/1 Berrios H I Wirth Kenneth B. 78 44.87 1.69/$1 089.9517 3 Think It Thru 10/1 Lugo C D Gonzalez Oscar M. 78 44.87 1.69/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.8252
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Last Race (Sprint Or Route) Same As Today
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 31.76, ROI 0.96/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 6 Queen Street 10/1 Jaramillo E Fawkes David JE 41 39.02 1.48/$1 098.3247 9 Sunshine City 4/1 Reyes L Dibona Bobby S. 41 39.02 1.48/$1 098.2660 4 Appointed 9/2 Vasquez M A McKanas Leon J. 41 39.02 1.48/$1 098.0555 1 Irazu 4/1 Meneses M Rodriguez Angel M. SFC 41 39.02 1.48/$1 095.9394 2 Lil Annie Rose 30/1 Berrios H I Wirth Kenneth B. 41 39.02 1.48/$1 095.2776 7 Alexandra Am I 8/1 Martinez G A Sano Antonio WL 41 39.02 1.48/$1 094.0594 3 Think It Thru 10/1 Lugo C D Gonzalez Oscar M. 41 39.02 1.48/$1 092.3277 5 Crystal Coast 5/1 Camacho S David Carlos A. T 41 39.02 1.48/$1 091.8778 8 Kate's Kingdom 7/2 Zayas E J De La Cerda Armando 41 39.02 1.48/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.6753
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Race Age 3
Free Winners for Friday, July 30th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
CHARLES TOWN
RACE #5
TIME: 9:02 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Tyry Tyrannosaurus 2/1 odds to win @ Bovada
901PHILADELPHIA -902 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 39-51 SU (-23.9 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
903CHICAGO CUBS -904 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 0-9 SU (-10.8 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season in the current season.
905CINCINNATI -906 NY METS
CINCINNATI is 1-12 SU (-13.3 Units) vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the current season.
907MILWAUKEE -908 ATLANTA
MILWAUKEE is 10-0 SU (10 Units) in road games when the total is 8 to 8.5 in the current season.
909LA DODGERS -910 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 21-37 SU (-20.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.
911COLORADO -912 SAN DIEGO
COLORADO is 15-24 SU (-18.3 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the current season.
913KANSAS CITY -914 TORONTO
KANSAS CITY is 9-19 SU (-16.1 Units) in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.
915BALTIMORE -916 DETROIT
DETROIT is 14-3 SU (14.8 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.
917BOSTON -918 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 32-14 SU (19.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.
919SEATTLE -920 TEXAS
TEXAS are 13-32 SU (-24.9 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.
MLB
Friday, July 30
Trend Report
Chi Cubs @ Washington
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
Kansas City @ Toronto
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Toronto
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Baltimore @ Detroit
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Yankees @ Miami
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Cincinnati @ NY Mets
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
NY Mets
NY Mets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Mets is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee @ Atlanta
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Seattle @ Texas
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Cleveland @ Chi White Sox
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games
Chi White Sox is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Minnesota's last 19 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of St. Louis's last 19 games when playing Minnesota
Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Angels's last 10 games
LA Dodgers @ Arizona
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston @ San Francisco
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Houston
Colorado @ San Diego
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
San Diego is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Colorado
MLB
Dunkel
Friday, July 30
MLB
Weather Report
Friday, July 30
Diamond Trends for Friday July 30
Vince Akins
SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. ET)
-- The Dodgers are 17-0 SU since Jun 15, 2013 as a road favorite of at least -125 after they were shutout last game.
SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. ET)
-- The Diamondbacks are 0-10 SU since May 16, 2021 as a dog after they hit multiple home runs last game.
OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Oakland at L.A. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
-- The Angels are 14-0-2 OU (3.41 ppg) since Sep 28, 2019 at home off a game as a dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.
Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Rockies are 0-8 SU since Jul 06, 2019 when Jon Gray starts on the road after they won in his last start against the current opponent.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
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