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Al Cimaglia: The Meadows-Adios Day Pick 4 Analysis
July 31, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
It is Adios Day at The Meadows with the feature on the 16-race card going in Race 15. The Delvin Miller Adios Final has a $375,000 purse and nine 3-year-old pacers will be battling in what should be a competitive affair. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 12. That sequence will be my focus and it has a $20,000 guaranteed pool.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 12
3-Blue Diamond Eyes (9/5)-Come off a very sharp score in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes Final on 7-24 and looks a cut above the others. Gingras took control at the half and this Burke trainee stopped the timer in 1.49 flat which was a lifetime mark. It looks like the rest of the field will be chasing 2nd place money unless this daughter of Captain Treacherous throws a clunker.
Race 13
2-Bring The Bling (5-1)-Tetrick sticks with this King trainee who makes its 3rd lifetime start and hasn't been used very hard. Sweet Lou 2-year-old colt will need to prove it has the same type of speed as #3 and #4 but this could be the time when the wrapper comes off.
3-All The Chips (4-1)-Was no match for #4 at PcD on 7-11 but has had a nice start to his career with 1 win and 3 second place finishes. Comes off a dominant win but loses Tetrick as Dunn takes over. Using and could be sitting on big try.
4-JM'S Finaltreasure (2-1)-Burke pupil deserves the role as morning line favorite. Has taken on stakes quality competition and has two pictures plus 2 second places finishes. Lost at 1/2 odds last week and many may single but my play will be to respect but shoot against.
8-Birthday (4-1)-Looking to take a swing with the other Burke trainee to upset at a nice price. Some tough foes have inside post draws, so Wrenn could work a trip and catch the speed down the lane. This colt has hit the board in all 4 starts with 1 picture.
Race 14
4-The Fear Is Real (4-1)-Willing to overlook the last start at Scioto, broke poorly and couldn't make up any ground despite at .55 back half. Wrenn is between the pipes and he steered for Burke in the only win this year. Should offer a fair price and it's best to not overlook.
8-Boardwalk Bet (5/2)-Has a perfect record in his short career (2-2) and has won being forwardly placed and by coming off the pace. Miller has some options with this Betting Line colt and could be one to beat despite the post draw.
Race 15
1-Rockyroad Hanover (4-1)-Finished 2nd behind the morning line choice #4 and could be better here. Alagna pupil may benefit with this post draw and now makes the 2nd consecutive start at the track. Dunn should be sitting with a big chance for a picture turning for the wire.
4-Water Sports Teen (3-1)-Has won 3 straight since joining the Jenn B barn and has big gate speed so could be on the point early on. Looks like a major player but probably needs the lead at the head of the lane to win.
0.50 Late Pick 4
3/2,3,4,8/4,8/1,4
Total Bet=$8
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Saturday, July 31, 2021
July 31, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Defense Wins; 3-Ka’nah; 7-Rayray
Forecast: Here’s a tough opener in a race dominated by class droppers. Rayray, a $50,000 D. O’Neill claim two races back but showing up today in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 affair, is comfortably drawn outside the other speed types and seems likely to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting trip. He’s run very well over the Del Mar main track in the past so we’re hoping he can regain his winning form against this softer bunch. The big class drop is of some concern but in reality this is where he belongs. Defense Wins has been chasing tougher since being haltered for this same $25,000 price three races back and like our top pick should find this group well within his capabilities. Freshened since early May and from a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners, the veteran Flatter gelding is reunited with F. Prat, who got good run on this gelding two runs back. Though winless in four prior starts at Del Mar, he’s at least hit the board in all four of those outings. Ka’nah exits a pair of infinitely tougher races and seems certain to go better at this level. The Gio Ponti gelding has back numbers that would easily win this race.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade:
Single: 6-Grace Adler
Forecast: Grace Adler has done everything in the a.m. like a high-quality prospect, and though she’s certain to be better at the longer distances the daughter of Curlin lands the cozy outside draw and should simply outclass this band of maiden juvenile fillies. A $700,000 yearling purchase that looks the part, the B. Baffert-trained filly is listed at 9/5 on the morning line but seems certain to go lower. We’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Astronomer; 3-Lookout Point
Forecast: Astronomer makes his racing debut over a mile on grass and has trained like a quality sort who’ll appreciate the lawn and will run all day. The son of Air Force One has done everything asked of him in the morning while working on the dirt main track but has a pedigree that suggests he’ll be much more comfortable and effective on the lawn. From his inside draw, the S. Callaghan-trained colt should draft into a good ground-saving position and then have his chance to show his stuff under top turf rider U. Rispoli. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, he’ll offer plenty of value at or near that price. Lookout Point has the benefit of a prior run, a runner-up effort going long on the lawn at Santa Anita last month in what we rated as a modest affair. He can be expected to be fitter and tighter, but at 8/5 morning line he’s liable to be an underlay. We use him as a saver, but our main punch will go to Astronomer.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 6-George Herman Ruth; 7-California Kook
Forecast: California Kook tries the boys today and returns to the Del Mar main track, of which she was a maiden special weight state-bred winner at this distance a couple of years ago. In her next start, she was beaten 33 lengths in a Los Alamitos stakes race and hasn’t been tried on dirt again until today. Her recent form has been below her best efforts from last year, but she did earn speed figures that fit very nicely with this group, so perhaps she can snap back to winning form for the always-potent F. Prat/P. Miller team. She’s also being re-equipped with blinkers, for whatever that’s worth. George Herman Ruth has been runner-up in two of his last three outings at this level and the son of Grazen should be in the fray once again. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Till I Found You; 5-Speeding; 8-Gayles Evening
Forecast: Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $50,000 compete over five furlongs on grass in an open affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Till I Found You tries turf for the first time, and while we can’t say she’s bred for it she does have excellent Bay Area form over synthetic, so there’s hope. The daughter of Old Topper is a quick sort that will appreciate this abbreviated distance, so if she can shake clear early she may be hard to run down late. However, Gayles Evening will likely blast out and go from her outside draw and keep the pressure on. A perfect one-for-one sprinting on grass up north but primarily an all-weathers specialist during her eight-race career, the J. Thomas-trained filly could be asked to change tactics and employ a stalk and pounce strategy outside Til I Found You, though that strategy hasn’t been successful with her in the past. If the two speedsters hook up early – a reasonable possibility – the closers may dominate. Speeding is a Midwest invader showing a decent maiden win sprinting on grass at Gulfstream Park earlier this year that charts nicely with this group. She gets a break in the weights with good bug rider J. Pyfer in the saddle and sports a bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs last week to have her on edge. She could draft into a stalking position and be at the right place and the right time heading for home.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Railsplitter; 5-Dark Prince
Forecast: We’ve never considered Dark Prince even remotely genuine or dependable, but the son of Cairo Prince drops sharply to a realistic level (nw-2, $16,000 claiming) and stretches out to a distance that produced his only prior win, so perhaps under these conditions the B. Baffert-trained veteran will regain his confidence. A decent third sprinting at Santa Anita in starter optional claiming company in late March but off the track since, he’s done his usual good work in the morning to be fit and ready and projects to be in an ideal pace-stalking position outside. Against this group, he may get brave. Railsplitter, claimed two runs back for $25,000 and now dropping two notches below that price, flashed speed at Los Alamitos before fading but may stick better with this group. He’s run well on this main track in the past and under bug rider C. Ortega probably will employ gate-to-wire tactics. In a field lacking in effective closers, he could hang around for a long time.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Alice Marble; 7-Lava Lane
Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has two major bullets to fire in this five-furlong turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Alice Marble, unplaced in two prior outings on the sod but probably a much better type now, is strong in the speed figure department and figures to beat this group if she can transfer her main track form to this course. She has a good stalking style and has really improved since gaining the services of F. Prat, who stays aboard. The “other” D’Amato is Lava Lane, a maiden turf sprint winner two races back at Santa Anita and then second in a photo vs. similar on dirt at Los Alamitos in her most recent outing. She probably prefers turf and can be expected to produce a forward move.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Herd Immunity; 6-Wipe the Slate
Forecast: Wipe the Slate exits a series of considerably tougher races and is realistically dropped (finally) into a claimer for the first time while seeking his winning level. A distant third in a highly rated first-level allowance sprint last month at Santa Anita, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip outside and then have his chance to seal the deal against a field that based on speed figures he should be able to handle. Though the rail post does him no favors, Herd Immunity, in his first start following the claim by W. Spawr, should be the one to fear most. The Union Rags gelding has steadily rising speed figures (though still considerably less than what our top pick has produced) and seems likely to step forward again for his new connections. He has the proper style for this trip and despite the rail he should be able to secure a good stalking position under F. Prat, who knows him well and stays aboard.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Me and Mr. C; 6-Ready Soul; 9-Rip City
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this grass grab bag for second-level allowance/$62,500 claimers but the contention actually goes deeper than that, so you should use as many as your budget allowance. Rip City is a genuine and dependable gelding who missed in a photo in a similar event in late May at Santa Anita. After a series of hard races, he should fire a big shot today following a brief vacation. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the son of City Zip is a perfect one-for-one at this nine-furlong trip and has the type of tactical speed that will likely allow for a soft, easy, pace stalking trip under regular pilot M. Gutierrez. At 4-1 on the morning line, he’ll give you everything he has. Ready Soul moves up a notch after a clever win in a first-level allowance turf miler last month in his California debut. He’ll need another forward move to win on the raise, but his speed figures continue to rise, he retains F. Prat, and projects to have a good second-flight trip in this nine-furlong affair. Me and Mr. C. has been a bit below his best form in his last three starts but tries an easier gang in his first local outing for good trainer M. Maker while seeking valuable ship-and-win money. First or second in nine of 20 career starts and a stakes winner at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this year, the Khozan gelding can produce a terrific turn of foot when he’s on his game.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Vertical Threat; 3-C Z Rocket; 8-Dr. Schivel
Forecast: The 2021 renewal of the Bing Crosby S.-G1 is a salty affair and is as deep as any sprint stakes for older horses we’ve seen in the West in quite some time. Dr. Schivel is a 3-year-old tackling older for the first time but after earning a career top speed figure in his sophomore debut last month despite a less-than-ideal trip the son of Violence appears ready to tackle the big boys. Unbeaten in two starts over the Del Mar main track including a victory in the 2020 Del Mar Futurity-G1, the M. Glatt-trained colt prefers to settle in the second flight and blast home, a strategy that regular rider F. Prat surely will employ in a race that should have sizzling early splits. C Z Rocket, winner of the P. O’Brien S.-G2 over the Del Mar main track, is a tough-as-nails gelding who will appreciate the turn back to this distance after flattening out going a mile at Lone Star Park last time out. A multiple graded stakes winner with a relentless late kick, the P. Miller-trained son of City Zip Is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and will be attractive at that price if you can get it. Vertical Threat hasn’t been seen since winning a stakes in the Midwest last November but returns with a series of strong workouts that should have him plenty fit. His numbers make him dangerous so if he returns as well as he left for R. Baltas (superlative stats with layoff runners) the son of Tapiture has a legitimate chance at a nice price (8-1). Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Sea of Liberty; 2-Carmelita’s Man; 3-One Fast Bro; 4-U. S. Danger
Forecast: The nightcap is state-bred first-level allowance turf miler and another in a series of deep and contentious races that offers a full field with plenty of wagering value to be found. Carmelita’s Man, freshened since late May and showing a good series of recent drills that should have him cranked up and ready, has good form at this level and a prior win over the Del Mar turf course. He’s guaranteed a comfortable, ground-saving trip from the rail and with good racing luck should have his chance to produce a winning late kick. One Fast Bro is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and at that price he’s a major player. Away since March but good enough to beat this field if he returns fit and ready, the S. Ruis-trained gelding broke his maiden over this course last November and has performed well since at this allowance level. He has good tactical speed and can finish, too. U. S. Danger is a committed front-runner seeking his fourth straight victory in just his second start of the year for the high percentage J. Wong barn. He’ll take them as far as he can. Sea of Liberty lands the rail in his first start since being claimed for $35,000 by P. Miller last month. The barn is terrific with this angle (26% with a powerful ROI), so we have to use this late-running gelding on our ticket.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Saturday, July 31, 2021
July 31, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Master Game; 6-Woodline; 7-H P Moon
Forecast: The Saturday Spa opener appears to be a fairly strong maiden special weight abbreviated sprint that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Among the newcomers, Master Game may be the best of the lot, having done plenty of good work in the morning for T. Pletcher while easily handling his company in his two most recent drills. From the first crop of unbeaten Mastery, this colt brought a healthy $300,000 as a yearling despite what we’d describe an average bottom line, so his good looks must have been apparent. A colt with a nice stride that most likely will produce his best form over longer distances, he nevertheless should be quick enough to act at this trip, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll put him on top and hope he can settle just off the likely pacesetter and then kick on with it late. Woodline displayed good zip in a pair of outings at Churchill Downs in the spring and most likely will be on the front end again today. The son of Gun Runner, third and then second in his two starts with improving speed figures, can be expected to step forward again, and while he probably isn’t yet good enough to beat a real top prospect, there may or may not be one of those in here. H P Moon has been burning up the track at Delaware Park while preparing for his debut, and we’ll take it as a sign of confidence that his connections have chosen to debut the son of Malibu Moon against what certainly will be tougher competition than what he would have faced at home. He’s out of a half-sister to Travers S.-G1 winner West Coast, so there’s a possibility he will need more ground but out of respect for the connections we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B+
Single: 1-Fast Gordon
Forecast: Fast Gordon stretches out to two-turns for the first time after a couple of fairly decent sprint tries vs. straight maiden state-bred foes. His numbers are rising, so with another forward move today the L. Rice-trained colt should be hard to handle. Additionally, he returns to the maiden $40,000 ranks and ran well when beaten a neck in his only prior outing at this level, and from his favorable inside draw the son of Alpha is guaranteed a comfortable, ground-saving trip. He’s bred to improve going long and hails from a barn that has superior stats with the stretch-out angle, so at 3-1 on the morning line let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Miss Liana/1a-Flat Awesome Jenny; 2-Cartwheel
Forecast: The entry looks quite formidable in this $20,000 claiming seven furlong sprint for fillies and mares and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same-owner duo run one-two. Flat Out Jenny shortens up and drops a notch after beating $25,000 foes at Belmont Park over a mile in late June. Most effective around one turn as a late-running sprinter, the daughter of Flat Out retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and with any kind of help up front she should be heard from again in the final furlong. Barn mate Miss Liana has the opposite running style – she’s committed speed type – so taking the entry ensures that you’ll have both styles covered. ‘Liana remains a level above her claim price after flashing speed but weakening late to wind up third in a tougher starter’s allowance $50,000 affair last month; today the projected pace flow is relatively soft, so if she can sneak away early without being used she should carry her speed a long way. As a back-up, you may consider Cartwheel. Sparingly raced but with speed figures that fit, the M. Hennig-trained mare was worn down late in a main track miler at Belmont Park in early May but before that, back in December, she was successful at this class and distance at the Big A. The good news is that she has a prior win over the Saratoga main track but a very light work tab for her first outing in nearly two months is a bit concerning.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Pivotal Run; 7-High Tone
Forecast: There’s not much depth in this maiden $40,000 inner turf middle distance affair, so we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. High Tone, beaten a neck in a slightly cheaper affair at Churchill Downs in mid-May, makes his second start of the year, this time for new trainer R. Moquett, and has speed figures that are good enough to handle this field. Likely to settle into an easy pace-stalking position outside, the son of Tonalist should have every chance and no excuse. Pivotal Run was a bit disappointing when a fading sixth in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month in his first start since chasing maiden special weight foes in a pair of grass affairs last September. Perhaps he needed the race or maybe he’ll produce a significant forward move in his first start off a claim by G. Weaver (40% with a small sample with this angle), so in either case he’s worth including in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Behind the Couch; 5-Honey Money
Forecast: Honey Money ran below her best form when unplaced in a similar state-bred allowance sprint for fillies and mares, but a muddy track gives her a legitimate excuse so let’s try her again and hope for a fast track. The daughter of Central Banker had won her previous three starts – two at Belmont Park and one at Finger Lakes – and in a field that should allow her to achieve her preferable front-running trip the W. Potts-trained filly seems set to regain her winning edge. Behind the Couch is a Pimlico invader fresh from a facile allowance win at Pimlico in a race that earned a competitive speed figure compared to our top pick. The veteran daughter of Awesome of Course should draft into a stalking position and have her chance from there. Preference on top goes to Honey Money but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-RoyaL Spirit
Forecast: Royal Spirit, a $450,000 yearling by Into Mischief from a family high-quality distance runners, debuts two-turning on grass in this maiden affair for juveniles that appears to have come up fairly light. The T. Pletcher-trained colt has done some excellent work around dogs on turf and appears fit and ready to perform up to expectations. This trainer/jockey combo that includes I. Ortiz, Jr. hits at a remarkable 30 percent with a significant flat-bet profit, so let’s go with this fresh face on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2 in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Invincible Gal; 8-Love and Thunder; 10-Drawn to Race
Forecast: Invincible Gal, a winner over the Saratoga lawn in her debut last year, has been stakes-placed on a number of occasions and today returns to the first-level allowance ranks while landing a comfortable inside draw while adding Lasix and blinkers. The G. Motion-trained filly is reunited with “win rider” Johnny V. and should be capable of settling into a ground-saving, second-flight early position and then having dead aim and every chance from there. English import Love and Thunder, second in her first two U.S starts, was a beaten choice both times but ran well enough to make her a major player once again. The C. Brown-trained Irish-bred filly likes to settle and produce one late run and with some help up front she should be right there. Dawn to Race makes her U.S. debut with Lasix and J. Rosario and her form in France wasn’t bad. Despite her outside draw, the German-bred filly probably is worth using as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade:
Use: 2-Mischevious Alex; 6-Whitmore; 9-Special Reserve
Forecast: Special Reserve has never been better than he is now, but this Grade-1 sprint is by far his most difficult assignment to date. A winner of four of his last five starts including his last pair in listed stakes company while earning triple-digit Beyer speed figures, the M. Maker-trained gelding should be comfortably placed outside in a stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on to prove he belongs at this level. He picks up J. Rosario for his first start ever at Saratoga so at 9/2 on the morning line the Midshipman gelding is worth a play. Mischievous Alex lost nothing in defeat when third in the Met Mile in his last outing in early June and today shortens back to six furlongs, a distance that he’s perfect at (2-for-2). His only previous outing over the Saratoga main track came last year in the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 when he finished seventh, but the son of Into Mischief clearly is better now and can be expected to fire his best shot. Whitmore, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 winner last year, has hit the board in all three starts in 2021 and is overdue to get back on the winning track. A strong runner-up in this race last year, the thoroughly genuine and consistent veteran gelding has been freshened since early May but has trained eagerly and sharply of late and will be a major threat if allowed to settle early and produce one late run.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Essential Quality
Forecast: Essential Quality is the obvious free bingo square in this year’s Jim Dandy S.-G2 for rolling exotic players but is listed on the morning line at 50 cents on the dollar and that makes him unplayable other than as a no-value rolling exotic single. The winner of six of seven career starts, most recently the Belmont S.-G1 in early June, the B. Cox-trained colt probably isn’t totally cranked up for this prep race to the Travers S.-G1 three weeks later but still should find a way to win with what projects to be a soft pace-stalking trip outside. Exacta players should consider Weyburn in the two-hole. A smart runner-up to Mandaloun in the Pegasus S. last month at Monmouth Park when beaten just a neck, the son of Pioneerof the Nile can be the controlling speed today if they let him roll from the gate and given that type of trip the J. Jerkens-trained colt could get brave and carry his speed a very long way.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B+
Single: 5-Channel Maker
Forecast: This group takes turns. Maybe it’s time for Channel Maker to regain his winning form after finishing unplaced in Dubai in late March in his most recent outing. Always most effective as the controlling speed, the veteran gelding catches an ideal pace scenario that should allow him to make the running without pressure, and recent workouts indicate the W. Mott-trained son of English Channel is perked up and ready to roll. He’s a two-time winner over the Saratoga lawn and is reunited with M. Franco, who has gotten the most run out of him. In a race in which any one of the six starters have a right to win, let’s take a stand with Channel Maker and simply hope to be right.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:45 ET Grade: C+
Use: 7-Tizzarunner; 8-Hieroglyphics; 10-Sharp Prospect
Forecast: Sharp Prospect returned off a 13-month layoff to dismantle an allowance field at Indiana Downs in mid-May while equaling his career-top speed figure. What’s concerning is the 10-week layoff and the drop into a $25,000 claimer, the first time he’s ever being risked for a tag. If he runs back to his last race, the J. Sharp-trained gelding can win again, but it sure appears like the connections are trying to lose him. Hieroglyphics, claimed out of a win for $25,000 by D. Schettino, returns nine weeks later for the same price, not exactly a healthy pattern, either. But the son of Pioneerof the Nile loves Saratoga (three wins in six starts), and the barn has solid stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line the veteran gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Tizzarunner goes for the red-hot M. Maker outfit and arrives in good form after missing by a neck in a similar claimer at Churchill Downs last time out. He’ll be running late under I. Ortiz, Jr.
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AI Picks: Pimlico Stakes | Saturday, July 31, 2021
July 31, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Pimlico’s Saturday card features a trio of stakes in the Mid-Atlantic Championship (MATCH) Series. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
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Pimlico // Race 4 // 2:26 pm ET // $100,000 Alma North Stakes // 6 furlongs
#2 Hello Beautiful (3-5 ML) // 35%W // 57%P // 69%S
#1 Club Car (3-1 ML) // 25%W // 39%P // 67%S
#3 Call On Mischief (12-1 ML) // 15%W // 39%P // 58%S
#5 Bluefield (20-1 ML) // 9%W // 19%P // 26%S
#6 Precioius (5-1 ML) // 9%W // 27%P // 50%S
#4 Paisley Singing (12-1 ML) // 8%W // 19%P // 32%S
Pimlico // Race 6 // 3:31 pm ET // $100,000 Deputed Testamony Stakes // 1-1/8 miles
#6 Harpers First Ride (9-5 ML) // 25%W // 35%P // 52%S
#4 Cordmaker (4-1 ML) // 23%W // 43%P // 61%S
#1 Magic Michael (3-1 ML) // 16%W // 27%P // 45%S
#3 Forewarned (20-1 ML) // 10%W // 29%P // 39%S
#5 Mischief Afoot (9-2 ML) // 10%W // 27%P // 39%S
#2 Two Thirty Five (6-1 ML) // 10%W // 23%P // 41%S
#7 Bourbon Calling (12-1 ML) // 7%W // 14%P // 25%S
Pimlico // Race 8 // 4:38 pm ET // $100,000 Challedon Stakes // 6 furlongs
#4 Laki (2-1 ML) // 35%W // 57%P // 69%S
#5 Whereshetoldmetogo (8-5 ML) // 25%W // 39%P // 67%S
#1 Lebda (9-2 ML) // 15%W // 39%P // 58%S
#2 Mucho (3-1 ML) // 9%W // 27%P // 50%S
#3 Threes Over Deuces (20-1 ML) // 9%W // 19%P // 27%S
#6 Whiskey and You (20-1 ML) // 8%W // 19%P // 32%S
AI Picks: Gulfstream Rainbow 6 | Saturday, July 31, 2021
July 30, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Gulfstream’s Saturday card features the Florida Sires Stakes and a mandatory Rainbow 6 payout with an estimated pool that could reach $3 million. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
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Gulfstream // Race 8 // 3:47 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile
#8 Green Mansions (7-2 ML) // 22%W
#9 Doctor D J (8-1 ML) // 18%W
#3 So Long Chuck (15-1 ML) // 14%W
#4 Candy Crushem (5-2 ML) // 13%W
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Gulfstream // Race 9 // 4:26 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
#3 Exponential (10-1 ML) // 29%W
#10 No Getting Over Me (6-1 ML) // 16%W
#1 Thorn (3-1 ML) // 13%W
#9 Khozando (8-1 ML) // 8%W
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Gulfstream // Race 10 // 4:58 pm ET // Florida Sires Stakes Desert Vixen // 6 furlongs
#7 Silver Smile (7-2 ML) // 29%W
#3 Noble Dreamer (2-1 ML) // 17%W
#5 Stone Beauty (9-2 ML) // 10%W
#11 Demurely (8-1 ML) // 10%W
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Gulfstream // Race 11 // 5:34 pm ET // optional claiming // 7-1/2 furlongs (turf)
#5 Lahinch (6-1 ML) // 22%W
#6 Officiating (9-2 ML) // 16%W
#8 Tellington (5-1 ML) // 12%W
#9 Timmy M (4-1 ML) // 11%W
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Gulfstream // Race 12 // 6:08 pm ET // Florida Sire Stakes Dr. Fager // 6 furlongs
#6 Lightening Larry(6-1 ML) // 30%W
#7 Hope In Him (8-5 ML) // 22%W
#4 Merlin (15-1 ML) // 11%W
#1 Laki Lio (10-1 ML) // 11%W
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Gulfstream // Race 13 // 6:42 pm ET // handicap // 5 furlongs (turf)
#1 Reinagol (4-1 ML) // 28%W
#8 Choose Joy (8-1 ML) // 21%W
#6 Bramble Berry (5-2 ML) // 14%W
#9 I Am The Boss (6-1 ML) // 9%W
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #4
Arlington - Race #5
Picks Notes #7 Caroline's Story She turned in a really good try last out behind a tough winner, and she has a touch of tactical pace that should work in her favor in a race without much early burn. #3 Command Point Yes, she dropped in for a tag to graduate last out, but that was still a sharp performance off that kind of layoff, and it's good to see them protect her off the win. #4 Gramercy She gets Lasix after what was a very disappointing effort last time out, but she has some upside here in the second start off the layoff. Race Summary Caroline's Story doesn't meet anything like she did in that last one, and she figures for a really good go of things from a spying spot.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #7 Stormin El Prado He's a bit of a swing, but he has run pretty well on occasion over this course, and he has been in with some decent groups along the way and turned in an encouraging effort last out. Why not? #2 Upbeat Melody Typical Rivelli winner loved the front end while trying the turf for the first time, and something similar keeps him in the mix right back with winners. Bit too much pressure to land this? #4 Ignited He has turned in a pair of good efforts to open the career, but he's another who is going to have to likely face an early battle and a late one. Race Summary Stormin El Prado might get a fair setup with a trio of potential pace players lined up, and he'll offer a nice price to see if a perfectly timed move can get him home.
Picks Notes #4 Major Wager The Belterra turf debut wasn't all bad, and she looks like a really good fit at this local level right now. Something like the 7/2 ML price would seem fair. #2 Nip N Tuck He ran well with better last out when getting on the turf for the first time, but the price gets much shorter this time around, and I don't trust him to run right back to that. #8 Three Amigos He doesn't really have a passing gear, so this draw works well for him to hassle speed drawn further inside. He's in the mix, but think a couple others a bit more likely. Race Summary Major Wager looks interesting enough with this bunch as she makes her second turf start. She should be in line for a good tracking trip with these.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Pocono Downs - Race #1
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes #1 A BETTOR BEACH Improved form shrouded by break last week, good value play on class rise. #2 RESPECT OUR FLAG Held safe the lead through a :27.2 third quarter but got caught by pocket sitter. #7 RHP Rallied for pair of thrids, draws outside, enters 20-percent barn. Race Summary A Bettor Beach out-sprinted and out-dueled the 4-to-5 favorite for the lead, braced for another challenge from the race winner midway on the backstretch, only to break stride at the 3/4-mile mark. He steps up in class but figures to be first or second a long way from the rail.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #4 SPRUCE CREEK Right set-up, right price, appears rounding to good race. #5 BAUTISTA Takes magnified class drop, more versatile than form suggests. #9 EXEMPLAR Second against top one from same post, last win was at this level. Race Summary Spruce Creek followed but couldn't match the winning rally of the favorite last week, but the improving 3yo mare gets plenty of pace to run at tonight and could upset the boys. Play a 4-ALL exacta.
Picks Notes #3 STORMONT VENTNOR Will be running late, post switch helps, changes drivers again. #7 REFI Chased winning fave before closers arrived two back, returns to winning level. #4 BIG RICH Finished 1-2-3 this month at Georgian Downs, the latest in preferred company. Race Summary Stormont Ventnor rallied fastest and widest in three-peat attempt three starts ago, broke stride in his follow-up start, then gained mildly on the final turn last week before he got tired chasing the 2-to-5 winner and 7-2 runner-up. He switches pilots again and is due for some better racing luck. Play 3-4 and 3-7 exactas.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #12
Gulfstream Park - Race #13
Picks Notes #8 Big and Classy Was an easy winner in a race that came off the turf; can benefit from the shorter distance and can be a strong finisher vs. these. #7 Hope in Him Was an easy winner first out and can be the one to catch; has a series of very sharp works since his only race. #3 Cajun's Magic Improved in his second start and drew off to a sharp score with plenty to spare; solid chance late. Race Summary Big and Classy made sharp improvement in his second start and turned back in distance; can engage the leaders and should be able to dig in vs. challengers.
Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes #1 Reinagol Won two of her last three and was dominant over optional claiming/allowance rivals last out; can handle this step up. #5 Lagertha Was up in time in a similar spot last time and has been in the mix in five of her six U.S. starts after shipping in from her native Chile. Loves the surface and distance. #8 Choose Joy Just missed to Lagertha by a neck last time but beat her two race; has a good closing move. Race Summary Reinagol has been a big player in all five career starts and was dominant last out; takes on older rivals but can get a good trip and should be tough.
Picks Notes #11 Demurely Closed well and won going away going five furlongs. Will benefit from more distance and can bide her time and make another late run. #3 Noble Dreamer Was never challenged in a maiden win last out and will be a short price; competition will be stronger here. #7 Silver Smile Cruised to an easy win vs. upper maiden claimers and should be able to make this step to stakes company; can press from the beginning. Race Summary Demurely ran a professional race in her debut and showed she has no problem passing rivals; gets a good pace setup here.
Race of the Week: Saturday's Dr. Fager at Gulfstream
July 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$100,000 FLORIDA SIRE STAKES (DR. FAGER DIVISION) AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, July 31, 2021
The Lead:
Not only will Gulfstream Park kick off its annual Florida Sire Stakes series for the 2-year-olds and 2-year-old fillies on Saturday, but both races will be part of a mandatory Rainbow 6 payout. The Desert Vixen (Race 10) and Dr. Fager (Race 12) are one-third of the sequence that begins in Race 8. The carryover should surpass $500,000 if the jackpot wager is not hit on Friday, meaning Saturday's pool could reach more than $3 million in new money.
Field Depth:
All 9 runners will be making their stakes debuts and 7 of them have won their maiden condition to this point. With such young horses, class isn't as much a relevant handicapping angle -- we don't know their ceiling and maiden races vary greatly in quality. Focus less on who won against open-company vs. state-breds and more on how they did it and what they've done since to project the next move forward.
Pace:
Five of the 7 maiden breakers won nearly wire-to-wire, but you'd expect that over dash trips with young horses. Rail-drawn LAKI LIO, HOPE IN HIM and LIGHTENING LARRY project fastest as these runners stretch out to 6 furlongs.
Our Eyes:
HOPE IN HIM likely goes favored off a 5-length debut win over LIGHTENING LARRY on June 4. HOPE IN HIM has worked 4 times since, 3 of them in fast fashion, and figures to make the expected improvement from start one to start two that young horses often make. He was sharp early and decent late in his debut for Joe Orseno, and this $190,000 Ocala March in-training purchase was no secret at 6-5. He ran to sales expectations. LIGHTENING LARRY returned from that showdown to win his next start 14 days later on June 28. He, too, was away sharp but a bit tired late when stretching out to 5 furlongs.
BIG AND CLASSY and DEAN DELIVERS both dominated open-company maidens last month. BIG AND CLASSY won an off-the-turfer at 7 furlongs by 5-3/4 lengths in his second lifetime start. That he's already run twice, and beyond the Dr. Fager distance, should not be underappreciated. He did come home in a slow 13.70 final furlong last time while no one cut into his lead; so that may say more about the competition being weak. As for DEAN DELIVERS, he got a zippy 12.28 final eighth in his 5-furlong victory by 7-1/4 widening lengths. He had a very tough trip early from the inside, bided his time, came through bravely on the rail and drew clear once the seas parted. The gutty run wound up spread-eagling the field more than 18 lengths just first through fourth.sfb
Both DEAN DELIVERS and CAJUM MAGIC are trained by local juvenile-focused conditioner Michael Yates. CAJUN'S MAGIC was highly professional in his second-start maiden win vs. Florida-breds. He was away well, but when a rival to his outside engaged, he patiently backed off at the rider's urging, professionally tipped to the 2-path and scooted between rivals when need-be with an example of gears. For a young horse, that impressed most of all in video study of this field. He also got a strong 85 BRIS late pace figure compared to this field when going 5-1/2 furlongs, a bit farther than most of these in their maiden scores.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CAJUN'S MAGIC has a professional mindset and the additional distance looks to be no problem.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Maidens in stakes races often are overlooked, but this early in the campaign, the class difference is nil. Don't be afraid to include PALIMONIUM and MERLIN in the exotics for high-percentage meet connections.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win CAJUN'S MAGIC. $10 exacta key-box CAJUN'S MAGIC with DEAN DELIVERS and HOPE IN HIM ($40).
Jim Dandy Stakes Draw Rapid Reaction
July 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality, the reigning 2-year-old champion and leader of the 3-year-old division, headlines the field of six entered today for Saturday’s Grade 2 $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes. The 1-1/8 miles test is Saratoga’s principle local prep for the Grade 1 $1,250,000 Travers Stakes on Aug. 31. Essential Quality will start from post 5 under regular rider Luis Saez.
The Jim Dandy is named after the 1930 Travers winner who upset Triple Crown champ Gallant Fox at 100-1 odds. An upset of that measure isn’t likely Saturday, but knocking off odds-on favorite Essential Quality will prove no easy task. He’s won 6 of 7 career starts with a close, fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby the only blemish on his record. The Jim Dandy will be the first Saratoga start for Essential Quality.
Opposition could come from the likes of Gotham Stakes upsetter Weyburn, most recently a game second to top divisional player Mandaloun in Monmouth’s Pegasus Stakes, where he outfinished Todd Pletcher’s Jim Dandy rival Dr. Jack. Weyburn is trained by Jimmy Jerkens, who won this race in 2014 with Wicked Strong. But it’s Dr. Jack who could be the speed of the Jim Dandy from an advantageous rail draw with a short run into Saratoday’s clubhouse turn. He’ll try to give Pletcher a record-padding seventh Jim Dandy win. Expect Essential Quality to settle just off Dr. Jack in a pressing position from post 5.
Deep-closing Preakness Stakes fourth-place finisher Keepmeinmind looks to snap a 5-race losing streak on the year with a change of rider to Joel Rosario. He’s sired by 2016 Jim Dandy winner Laoban. Withers winner Risk Taking is back for a hot-again Chad Brown barn, but was nowhere to be found in the Preakness and Belmont. He, too, is a Jim Dandy legacy, sired by 2002 winner Medaglia d’Oro.
Masqueparade, a winner of three straight including the Ohio Derby last out, is the Jim Dandy X-factor. He’ll make his first appearance against the top of the division while red-hot for Al Stall, Jr. He’s by Upstart, a horse who won twice at Saratoga and was third and fourth over this track in the Whitney and Travers.
For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Jim Dandy, be sure to check back Friday at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com for Eddie Olczyk and Jeff Siegel’s exclusive handicapping video preview, which also will include the Vanderbilt. Also, Johnny D’s On Track blog will look at the Saratoga late pick five races and this week’s Fun In The Sun handicapping contest.
Saratoga // Race 9 // Grade 2 Jim Dandy // 5:39 pm ET // 1-1/8 miles
1. Dr. Jack (Jose Ortiz)
2. Masqueparade (Miguel Mena)
3. Weyburn (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
4. Keepmeinmind (Joel Rosario)
5. Essential Quality (Luis Saez)
6. Risk Taking (Manny Franco)
Trio Hit Fun in the Sun Wire Together!
July 28, 2021 | By Johnny D
Fun in the Sun Saturday tournament ended in an exciting three-way photo finish and the Brownie snapshot couldn’t separate the trio in a rare triple dead heat!
Steven Jones, Sean O’Malley and Mati Raz shared a final total of $308 in competition earnings to collect one third of the weekly pot each—or $1,551.67 in American currency. They also earn seats to the $10,000-added Fun in the Sun Final Table on September 4. Wayne Tam and Enrique Teran checked in just behind the top three with $305 and $303.50, respectively. They also earn seats at the Final Table.
Jones, who finished fifth in Fun in the Sun Week 1 action, earns his second Final Table Seat in as many weeks of competition. That’s an impressive performance. It will be interesting to see if Jones, who’s reached the maximum allowable number of Final Table seats, is successful in the coming weeks adding additional prize money to his bounty.
The hard luck story of the week (in tournament play there’s always at least one) belongs to Eugene Kroska, sixth and just $1.50 short of a Final Table seat. Still, Kroska may be consoled by the fact that, even though short of a Final Table ticket or a weekly cash prize, he was able to collect $301 from competition wagers—a profit of $176 for the afternoon’s entertainment.
Fun in the Sun action began with a bang as Sifting Sands scored in Saratoga’s seventh race at a $58 mutuel. Rastafara claimed the next Spa heat at $7.10. Any Fun in the Sun player correctly tabbing those winners could have taken the rest of the afternoon off and still emerged as an eased-up Week 2 winner with competition earnings of $325.50, based on $10 Win wagers on the first two home. It’s not like bagging that double was impossible as both winners were trained by Chad Brown, four-time Eclipse Award-winner and current number one in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary Global Trainer Rankings!
Hindsight is 20/20, right? Don’t you just detest anyone who mentions hindsight’s remarkable vision? I know do.
Caramel Swirl at $4.30 and Caravel at $4 completed a quiet double in the next two races before Mike’s Girl provided fireworks at $19 in the Spa finale. Thankfully, the 5-year-old mare wasn’t trained by Chad Brown. Charles Frock saddled the Delaware shipper.
Norma Jean B. initiated Del Mar Fun in the Sun competition with a modest $6.40 tally in the first race. Outlaw returned $15.40 in the second before free bingo square Sea Dreamer took the third at $2.80. Players hoping to make up ground on leaders in the final two events had chances as Dicey Mo Chara at $14.40 and Salah at $19.60 came home first at solid mutuels.
Fun in the Sun play resumes Saturday and requires a $25 registration fee and live $10 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races—last 5 at Saratoga and first 5 at Del Mar. The top 3 finishers each week share in a cash prize pool and the top 5 players qualify for seats at the $10,000-added Final Table on Saturday, Sept. 4.
See you Saturday!
Saratoga & Del Mar ‘Sun Analysis & Picks
July 30, 2021 | By Johnny D
It’s Week 3 of Xbet’s $10,000-added Fun in the Sun competition that combines racing action from Saratoga and Del Mar into an afternoon’s worth of enjoyment and profitability. According to current forecasts, it appears as if Mother Nature is likely to give Spa fans a break this weekend and keep the wet stuff to herself. That would be welcome relief to frustrated horseplayers who have struggled through an early meeting plagued by downpours resulting ‘off’ tracks and scratch-filled races vacating the turf course.
Below is one man’s analysis of all 10 Fun in the Sun competition races—the last 5 at Saratoga and the first 5 at Del Mar. Hopefully, there are a few bits of enlightenment included that can help you to land a Final Table seat in Fun in the Sun or, at least, to make a few bucks with whatever wagers you play.
Analysis is made before scratches and changes and is based on a ‘fast’ track and ‘firm’ turf course.
Saratoga
Race 7
Allowance
One Mile (Turf)
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward
#1 Rivendell stretches out for the second time in her career—she was fifth second time out at Saratoga over this course. Had a decent recent prep. Trainer Mott still is searching for the key to this 4-year-old filly, but she’s fit and has an even sprinting style that suggests she may like a mile.
#2 Invincible Gal adds blinkers and Lasix for trainer Graham Motion as she tries older foes for the first time. She just missed in the Gr. 3 Soar Softly going seven furlongs at Belmont against sophs. Before that she was a neck short in the Tepin in November. She has no speed and jockey Johnny V. is the only rider to have won with her first out of seven starts.
#3 Say Moi hasn’t fired a good one in a year and those were on dirt.
#6 Secret Time moves to hot Spa trainer Danny Gargan and he’s a powerful 35% with runners first time in his barn. Jockey Gaffalione rides and he’s 26% with Gargan. Blinkers go on in here and the trainer is 21% with that move. The 4-year-old Group 3-placed filly in France tried a trio of US-based stakes before coming up short in a Keeneland allowance race. She’s deserves respect in here from off the pace.
#7 High Opinion finished second at this level going one mile and one-quarter last out for trainer Anthony Dutrow and top jock Irad Ortiz. This 4-year-old filly has been second at this level twice before that and has just one win out of 7 starts. She was second in the Winter Memories at 3. Her most recent races were a quarter of a mile longer than this one and she handled the distance fine. Here only win, however, came going seven furlongs on turf at Belmont, so one mile seems OK, too.
#8 Love And Thunder has a pair of runner-up efforts in the US at this level since arriving from Great Britain where she didn’t fare well in a pair of Group 3 tries after winning an allowance race. Jose Ortiz rides for top trainer Chad Brown and the pair is 22%. She was favored in both stateside tries and figures to have that role again.
#9 Pecatonica is a 5-year-old mare that just missed at this level last out in June at Belmont. She was 22-1 that afternoon. She has 4 wins—the most in the field and they have come in beaten claiming races and in state-bred allowance tries. These are tougher, but she likes Saratoga green with 2 wins in 4 start and a second and a third.
#10 Drawn to Race arrives from France and goes first-time Lasix for trainer Al Stall who is a fine trainer but doesn’t have a lot of experience with new US arrivals. This 3-year-old filly broke maiden on synthetic in her second career start and then was second and third in allowance races at one mile on turf. She’s truly a wild card in here and deserves a second glance based on the presence of jockey Joel Rosario.
Best: #8
Next: #7
Wild Cards: #6, #10
Race 8
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap
Grade 1 –Six Furlongs
Three Year Olds & Upward
#1 Lexitonian nearly rocked the world Derby Day when second by a head at nearly 50-1 in the Gr. 1 Churchill Downs at seven furlongs. A subsequent try in the Gr. 1 Met Mile at one mile was a disaster. The 5-year-old’s come close against Gr. 1 competition before, so he can’t be totally ignored, but it’s difficult to imagine him bouncing back quickly off that Met Mile drubbing.
#2 Mischevious Alex won the Gr. 1 Carter in a romp in April at Aqueduct going seven furlongs. He returned to run well when a close third in the Gr. 1 Met Mile. He’s won 3 of his last 4 races and 6 of his last 9, mostly against graded competition. One of those defeats came in the Gr. 1 H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga last August. He’s fast, fit and ridden by top jock Irad Ortiz.
#3 Firenze Fire is a 6-year-old coming off some of the best races of his career…and he’s had a splendid career. 14 wins out of 34 races and $2.5 million in earnings is outstanding. However, he’s not quite as devastating at Saratoga where he’s just 1 for 7. Difficult to go against such a fiery competitor but this just hasn’t been his favorite track.
#4 Strike Power will add some pace to the race but probably won’t last until the end. He was fifth in this race in 2019 and the 6-year-old would need to improve a lot on his recent work to threaten in here.
#5 Three Technique adds blinkers for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. This 4-year-old colt comes from just off the pace and he should have plenty of that to run at. He’s been third in his two most recent starts—an allowance mile and the Gr. 2 Nerud at seven furlongs, so he’s in decent form. He’s just never been quite this good and has only 3 wins in 14 starts.
#6 Whitmore is difficult not to love. At 8-years-old, he’s still adding to his awesome resume of 15 wins in 41 starts and nearly $4.5 in earnings. Last season’s Gr. 1 BC Sprint winner runs late and should find enough speed in here to give him an honest shot in the lane. He ran really well in this race last year to finish second, less than two lengths behind Volatile and has a win over the track in 3 starts. His recent form is solid enough. Note that he did not perform well over a sloppy surface in the Forego at the Spa last year, so if it rains, stay away. Has he lost a step? Probably. But you still need to buckle your chin strap before lining up against him.
#7 Miles Ahead moves to the barn of Rusty Arnold for his first Saratoga try. This 4-year-old got on a bit of a run at Gulfstream against weaker foes than this and then won the Gr. 3 Smile Sprint—his third tally in the last four starts. He’s got enough pace to be close early and jockey Luis Saez isn’t afraid to let his mounts run away from the gate. Still, it’s a stretch to see him winning this.
#8 Montauk Traffic comes off an allowance score and 2 wins in his last 3. He won the Jimmy Winkfield at three, but these are tougher.
#9 Special Reserve has fired a pair of big shots in his last two races—both wins, one in the Gr. 3 Maryland Sprint at Pimlico and the other in the Iowa Sprint at Praire Meadows. He’s a hot 5-year-old with wins in 4 of his last 5 races and Beyer Speed Figures that fit in here. Trainer Mike Maker has been firing live ammo this Spa summer (23%) and Joel Rosario rides from a comfortable outside post position. Claimed for $40k in February, this is not the kind of runner you’d be looking to play in a Gr. 1 Saratoga race but when sprinters get hot they can rattle off strong efforts and this guy seems sharp right now.
Best: #2
Next Best: #6
Lookout: #9
Race 9
Jim Dandy
Grade 2 – One Mile & One Eighth
Three Year Olds
#1 Dr Jack won his first two starts and then was third in the Pegasus at Monmouth behind Mandaloun and #3 Weyburn. He’s an improving sophomore that need further development to handle all of these.
#2 Masqueparade held on to barely win the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby as lukewarm favorite over King Fury and #4 Keepmeinmind. That was his second consecutive win on top of an allowance romp at Churchill Downs. He broke maiden via disqualification at Fair Grounds. Guess here is that the Ohio Derby effort will have taken something out of this guy who must move forward again to win this.
#3 Weyburn has some speed and jockey Irad Ortiz figures to use it to maintain an inside trip. He just missed in the Pegasus after forcing the issue early. Before that he faded to fourth after pushing the pace and wide in the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial. He won the Gr. 3 Gotham going one mile at Aqueduct. It’s clear this guy needs to battle on the front end early and he should find a suitable early spot along with #1 Dr Jack. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz and a pair of bullet five-furlong Spa works—1:00 3/5 best of 18 and :59 2/5 best of 30--suggest this one will fire his best shot.
#4 Keepmeinmind hasn’t missed much dancing since he began the season in March. He’s started in 5 graded stakes races, including the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby and Gr. 1 Preakness Stakes. His best finish came last out in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby when third, lapped on #2 Masqueparade and King Fury. Readers of this space know we’ve been on this one’s bandwagon for a while and he’s been a bit unlucky by breaking slowly and leaving himself too much to do. Today he gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario and that could make a difference. Three half-mile works—a bullet :46 1/5 best of 50, a :47 2/5 second-best of 139 and a bullet best of 113 :46—all suggest that this colt will show much more speed than he ever has. Is he good enough to handle #5 Essential Quality? He hasn’t been on 3 previous occasions. There are some alterations this time that just might flip that script and, if the price is right he’s worth chasing…again.
#5 Essential Quality deserves more respect than he’s gotten. He’s won 6 of 7 starts and is the reigning 2-year-old champ. So far, he’s got my vote as the top 3-year-old, too, but there’s a long way to go. His resume is virtually spotless, save for a wide trip in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby that resulted in a one-length loss. He returned to squarely defeat a dead game Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont Stakes. If successful, this would be his fifth graded stakes victory, including three Gr. 1s. No one else in the field has even one Gr. 1 victory. Still, for wagering purposes, there are possible reasons to go against him. First, this is not the barn’s major objective. Travers is. Second, funny things happen to favorites in big races at Saratoga: they lose. Third: he’ll be a very short price.
#6 Risk Taking did not perform well in the Gr. 1 Preakness and trainer Chad Brown, apparently, is throwing that race out. Of course, the colt also failed to show up when favored in the race before that the Gr. 3 Wood Memorial. Forgive those two duds and you come to a Gr. 3 Withers romp and a maiden tally, both at Aqueduct going one mile and one-eighth. If this guy wasn’t trained by Chad Brown he would draw a second glance in here.
Strictly One to Beat: #5 Essential Quality
Next: #4 Keepmeinmind, #3 Weyburn
Race 10
Bowling Green
Grade 2 –One Mile & Three Eighths (Turf)
Four Year Olds & Upward
#1 Channel Cat stole away for a wire-to-wire score two back in the Gr. 1 Man O War at Belmont. That was his first win in a while, and he followed that up with a wide effort in the Gr. 1 Manhattan. He’ll need his very best in here and that hasn’t appeared since 2019.
#2 Cross Border just missed in an optional claiming allowance race but hasn’t gotten home first since last August here at Saratoga in a state-bred stakes race right before he was beaten just a neck in the previous renewal of this race. He loves Saratoga turf—5 wins in 6 attempts and 2 for 2 at the distance! He’s got to be respected, even at age 7.
#3 Breakpoint has had one race in the US for trainer Chad Brown and it was a 4th placing in an optional claiming allowance race. He was unbeaten in his native Chile. He should improve but would need to really move up to win. He may be overbet because he’s a Brown-trained runner. On the other hand, he’s a bit of an unknown, too.
#4 Rockemporer romped in his last start over optional claiming allowance foes. He’s faced top-notch competition before and been close—nose and neck defeats in Gr. 2 Whittingham and Gr. 1 Manhattan on opposite coasts. Perhaps, now that he’s finally broken through with a US win, he’ll be ready to transfer that winning form into a US graded stakes victory? He’s just 3 for 17, overall and would need to take a step forward to win this. At least he’s sharp and trained by Chad Brown.
#5 Channel Maker is the most accomplished of the group with 7 wins in 39 starts and over $3 million in the bank. He’s been off since March in Dubai, so he’s fresh. He’s got speed and is handled by regular rider Manny Franco. He’s won 2 of 6 at the Spa and was a troubled fourth last year in this race. He’s the one to beat.
#6 Red Knight has no speed, adds blinkers and will be looking for a Gr. 2 win at age 7. He seems to be in deep with these because his last three races have not been nearly as good as his previous best.
#7 Moon Over Miami is one of three Bill Mott trained runners in the race--#6 Red Knight and #5 Channel Maker are the others. This 4-year-old has no early speed and has finished close in Gr. 2 races before. His next to last race was the best of his developing career and he’s had time off since then. Still, he’ll need to go some to threaten barnmate #5 Channel Maker.
#8 Shamrocket hails from the Todd Pletcher outfit and is a steady 4-year-old performer who would need to really step up his game to win this.
Best: #5
Next: #2, #4
Race 11
Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile & One Sixteenth (Turf)
#1 Vettori Kin drops back to a live level in here. His back races make him very tough, but his recent stuff hasn’t been quite as good. He was claimed three back off a winning race at this level and should be respected off that.
#2 Clear Vision makes a first start for trainer Tony Dutrow and he’s good with new runners (23%). He’s relatively lightly raced, so there could be more in the tank. If there is, Dutrow should be able to access it as this one drops down the ladder.
#3 Morocco has races that fit very well in here and he tumbles in class for trainer Saffie Joseph. Javier Castellano rides and he’s 30% with Joseph over 64 mounts, according to Thoro-Graph figures. This one must be used.
#5 The Last Zip popped with one of his good ones last out to win a claimer at Belmont. He’s not good at pairing up top efforts, so he may need time before he’s at his best again. Trainer Mike Maker always must be respected in these turf claimers and he’s 18% with jockey Tyler Gaffalione and 20% overall after 11,667 starters, according to Thoro-Graph stats.
#6 Bird’s Eye View has races that fit in here, but they came a while ago.
#7 Tizzarunner goes for Mike Maker and Irad Ortiz rides. They hit at 24% over 422 mounts. This Maker runner just missed at this level at Churchill Downs last out and should be live in here. This will be the gelding’s second start for Maker and improvement is expected.
#8 Hieroglyphics moves from Maker to Schettino—11% first race after trainer change. He’s a consistent type and has won at this level a few times. He likes to track the early pace and will be handled by Ricardo Santana, who is 0-11 with Schettino runners.
#9 Counter Offer hasn’t been fast enough to win this race, but makes a second start for 21% trainer Rob Atras. Manny Franco rides and they’re 17% together. A win here would surprise us a bit but Atras runners do some surprising things.
#10 Sharp Prospect drops off an optional claiming allowance tally at Indiana. He’s won three of this last four, two of those at Fair Grounds in Feb. and March. Top jock Luis Saez takes the mount and trainer Joe Sharp bats at 19% with him. 3 for 4 on turf and 2 for 2 at the distance.
#11 Mandate is an interesting fit 4-year-old who just finished second at this level at Belmont. His best race came four back for previous trainer Todd Pletcher and now races for Wayne Potts. He could have improvement in him, and he’s proven at this level. The post is no bargain and jockey Dylan Davis will need to save ground early in order to make this guy’s closing kick relevant. He has a win and second over the Saratoga turf.
#12 Patriot Drive has races that fit and brings form from a variety of tracks to this race. A requisite drop in class occurs off a close synthetic race at Presque Isle. He has some acceptable Saratoga turf form as a 5-year-old and his recent Turf Paradise efforts aren’t awful. He figures wide from this post and hasn’t won in his last 16 races.
Best: #3, #7
Next: #10
Del Mar
Race 1
Claiming
Six Furlongs
Three Year Olds & Upward
#2 Defense Wins usually finishes second with 5 runner-up efforts and just 1 win in 15 starts. Top jock Flavien Prat, aboard for one of those seconds, tries his hand at getting an elusive win on this gelding.
#4 Starship Chewbacca has some efforts that fit well in here. He gets a 7-pound apprentice break with jock Espinoza aboard. Last 2 are ugly efforts against better opponents. Forgive those and this guy’s not outgunned.
#6 Prince Magician romped going one mile at Los Al last out. Toss a pair of turf races and he fits off his best. He’s just 1 for 13, though.
#7 Rayray is interesting off a drop in class for trainer Doug O’Neill, who’s having a snakebit summer with just 2 wins and 7 seconds out of 34 starts. Apprentice Jess Pyfer rides with a 5-pound break in weights. No speed for this one and that’s an issue.
#8 Palaleo has early class, drops in class and has an outside post position. Those are the positives. The 5-year-old would need to hang around better than he has in the past.
Best: #2
Next: #4, #6
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight
Five Furlongs
Fillies Two Years Old
#2 Ice Maiden is a new face at Del Mar for trainer Mark Casse, a 16% first out 2-year-old trainer. Nice :47 2/5 local move to go with steady Keeneland half mile drills. Nothing particular to note except that the trainer usually doesn’t ‘crank ‘em up’ first out.
#3 Sugar Sugar is one of two entered for owner Gary Barber and trainer Peter Miller. Solid works for this daughter of Twirling Candy—a fine 2-year-old sire. Respect.
#4 Valentina Ghada has win-early sire stats but trainer Michael McCarthy is just 8% with first out 2-year-olds. A series of 5-furlong works suggest this one is fit enough to keep going when other fade.
#5 Travel Smart is the other Barber/Miller runner in here and is by a sire with great win-early stats. Florent Geroux is named to ride, an interesting out-of-town jock selection.
#6 Grace Adler hails from the Bob Baffert stable and will be ridden by top jock Prat. They team up at a 27% winning clip. Two fast 5-furlong gate works suggest this $700k purchase will be tough to beat.
Best: #6
Next: #3, #4
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight
One Mile (Turf)
Two Year Olds
#3 Lookout Point is the third Gary Barber-owned and Peter Miller trained 2-year-old scheduled to run this afternoon in the first three races. This one ought to be favored and difficult to beat after a second going this distance on turf at Santa Anita. He was favored that afternoon under top jock Prat, who returns in the saddle.
#5 Il Capitano set the pace in a common race with #3 Lookout Point, but faded to third, just one-half length behind that foe. That race under his belt, he should be fitter this time and has to be considered a threat to the top choice.
#8 Mackinnon has made two starts for trainer Doug O’Neill and was second last out on turf going five furlongs. He’s come back to work well for this stretch out try. American Pharoah has had early success with turf runners.
Best: #3
Next: #5, #8
Race 4
State-Bred Allowance Optional Claiming
One Mile
Three Year Olds & Upward
#1 Anitanewmercedes is a new face locally, coming off a pair of turf races at Golden Gate. He showed speed in those and there’s not much early lick in here. He’s facing tougher horses than usual, but he’s at least got a winning spirit with 5 firsts out of 15 races. Still, these should be more challenging than those he’s been meeting.
#2 Appreciated has sprint races in his past that would fit very nicely in here. He’s only won 3 of 25 races, so he’s a bit unreliable, but he’s in for a $20k tag here and that’s a class drop from where he’s been running in the past. He doesn’t have much speed.
#6 George Herman Ruth…otherwise known as ‘The Bambino,’ was second last out at Los Al going one mile at this level. A repeat of that race will fit nicely in here. Trainer Phil D’Amato has been snakebit this season at Del Mar and, at this writing, is 0-22. The trainer wins with jockey JJ Hernandez at 25%.
#7 California Kook is the fourth Barber-owned (partially)/Miller trained runner of the afternoon…and we’re only four races into the card. This filly looks serious on the drop to a lesser level against fellow state-breds. A year ago, she was viewed as a graded stakes turf filly and now will try dirt with top jock Prat aboard. Her lack of early speed is an issue, but she should come running late.
Best: #6, #7
Race 5
Claiming
Five Furlongs (Turf)
Fillies Three Years Old
#3 Til I Found You has speed and should be part of a hot early pace. She raced clear by 10 lengths early and held on to a more than 5 length state-bred maiden victory one back at Golden Gate on synthetic. 23% winning trainer Jonathan Wong is 0-7 at Del Mar, as of this writing. The 5-furlong distance should help her cause and her sire is 14% with turf runners and a respectable 12% with first-time turfers.
#4 Del Mar Flash has a five-furlong state-bred turf win over this course. She’ll need to run faster than ever before to win this race by her closing style should fit well in this speed-laden heat. Her last two races look horrible on the page, so the price will be right for those who think the early pace will collapse and that she will extend her record to 2 for 2 over this Del Mar layout.
#5 Speeding broke maiden going five furlongs on turf at Gulfstream Park. She then was rushed into a pair of stakes at Turfway Park. She should be close to the early pace in here and new trainer Doub O’Neill uses apprentice Jess Pyfer to get a five-pound break in the weights.
#6 Double Whopper appears to be in town searching for a share of some Ship and Win dough. She comes off a decent effort at Indiana Grand when second going five furlongs on turf at a bit lower level than this.
#7 Emma’s Dance has speed. Forget her last race and you’re looking at a very consistent filly with 5 finishes in the top two out of 9 races. This is her first turf start.
#8 Gayle’s Evening adds even more spice to the lineup. She’s a win-type with 4 victories out of 8 races. They’ve all come in wire-to-wire performances, so you know jockey Kyle Frey will be gunning her from an outside post. She’s 1 for 1 on turf and at the distance with all but one of her efforts coming at Golden Gate.
Pace Plays: #4 Del Mar Flash, #1 Mind Meld
Race On!
Jon White's Jim Dandy and Vanderbilt Picks
July 28, 2021 | By Jon White
Essential Quality, who currently is the highest-ranking 3-year-old colt in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, is expected to be an overwhelming favorite vs. five foes in this Saturday’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes.
When last seen under silks, Essential Quality showed his class to win an American classic. He captured the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 5 for trainer Brad Cox.
Will someone step up and defeat Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy? Probably not. But those who will be betting on him with both hands to win the Jim Dandy should beware that this race will be run at Saratoga, aka “the graveyard of favorites.”
As recently as last Saturday a big favorite was defeated in a big race at Saratoga. Hammered down to 3-10 favoritism, Malathaat finished second when 14-1 Maracuja won the Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks by a head.
It was yet another example of what can happen to an odds-on favorite in an important stakes race at Saratoga. Malathaat was five for five going into the CCA Oaks, having won at Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Keeneland and Churchill Downs.
And what happened when Malathaat showed up for the first time in a race at Saratoga? She lost.
Maracuja was one for five going into the CCA Oaks. In the Grade I Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on April 30, Maracuja finished seventh, 7 1/2 lengths behind Malathaat.
But when Maracuja got a rematch against Malathaat last Saturday at Saratoga, Maracuja turned the tables on that rival and spoiled Malathaat’s unblemished record.
Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Secretariat both were upset at Saratoga.
American Pharoah was heavily favored at 35 cents to the dollar in the 2015 Travers. He finished second, three-quarters of a length behind 16-1 Keen Ice.
In 1973, Secretariat worked one mile at Sarataga in 1:34 flat on July 27. The track record at that time was 1:34 4/5. But eight days later, Secretariat was unable to win the Whitney Stakes.
In the book “Big Red of Meadow Stable,” William Nack wrote of Secretariat that the Whitney “looked like a soft touch for him, but it wasn’t. Trainer H. Allen Jerkens had his chestnut Onion ready to run the race of his life, and that was all that was needed to defeat an ailing Secretariat.”
Secretariat, with regular rider Ron Turcotte aboard, raced in fourth early, while Onion set the pace. With a furlong to go, Onion led by head over Secretariat. The one-mile time in the 1 1/8-mile event was a pedestrian 1:36 flat. That clocking was two seconds (or approximately 10 lengths) slower than Secretariat’s clocking in that one-mile workout eight days earlier, proving this was far from the “real” Secretariat.
“When Turcotte set him down, he never fired -- certainly not as he had fired in the Triple Crown races in the spring,” Nack wrote of Secretariat in the Whitney. “He appeared dull…He had Onion hooked in the stretch, with Secretariat on the rail, but the red horse couldn’t get by him in the drive, and in the final yards Onion pulled away to beat him by a length. The next day Secretariat was running a temperature. He was out of training for the rest of August. Secretariat’s veterinarian, Mark Girard, said that he was probably incubating a virus prior to the race.”
Secretariat, a 1-10 favorite in the Whitney, had to settle for second to 5-1 Onion.
Mighty Man o’ War suffered his one and only defeat at -- where else? -- Saratoga. He finished second to the aptly named Upset in the 1919 Sanford Stakes. Man o’War won all 20 of his other starts during his fabulous racing career.
Gallant Fox swept the Triple Crown in 1930. He took a seven-race winning streak into the Travers.
In the book “The Most Glorious Crown,” Marvin Drager wrote of Gallant Fox coming up to the Travers, “to some, he was unquestionably America’s greatest horse since Man o’ War.”
Gallant Fox was sent away as the 1-2 favorite against three foes in the Travers. Whichone was 8-5, Sun Falcon was 30-1 and Jim Dandy was virtually ignored by the bettors at 100-1.
The weather for the 1930 Travers “was extremely uncooperative,” wrote Drager. “A heavy downpour the night before left the track in horrible shape.”
According to Gallant Fox’s Daily Racing Form past performances, the track was “heavy,” meaning it not only was wet, it was so deep as to be a bog.
Most people expected Gallant Fox to make it eight wins in a row despite the heavy going.
However, in The Blood-Horse magazine’s 1969 series “The Great Ones,” Kent Hollingsworth wrote of the 1930 Travers that “when it was generally accepted that no 3-year-old in the world could beat Gallant Fox, he was beaten.”
In one of the most shocking outcomes in the history of American racing, Jim Dandy defied his astronomical odds and won by eight lengths. Gallant Fox finished second.
The Travers was Gallant Fox’s lone defeat in 10 starts as a 3-year-old. This also was Jim Dandy’s only win in 20 starts at 3.
It should be noted, though, that Jim Dandy previously had managed to win Saratoga’s 1929 Grand Union Stakes at odds of 50-1 when running on a track very similar to that for the 1930 Travers.
As for this Saturday’s Jim Dandy Stakes, named for the shocking 1930 Travers winner, I expect Essential Quality to get the job done. However, I do have four concerns.
First, this $600,000 race is not as important as the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 28 for Essential Quality.
“Our main goal this summer is the Travers,” Cox said in a Daily Racing Form story written by David Grening. “We’ll see how things go in the Jim Dandy, but I certainly do feel like he’s as good as he’s been. His weight, his attitude, the way he’s eating is just really good.
“We’re looking for a good race out of him, an opportunity for him to get a feel for the surface, and hopefully he’ll have some gas in the tank for four weeks later.”
Second, Essential Quality is coming off a career-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the Belmont. He almost certainly is going to regress, or “bounce,” after recording his highest figure yet. It does help, though, that this will be his first race in eight weeks, giving him time to replenish his gas tank.
Third, Essential Quality is cutting back in distance from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/8 miles. This situation sometimes can prove troublesome. I believe one of the reasons that Easy Goer did not win the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1989 is that he was cutting back from the 1 1/2-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup. Sunday Silence went into the BC Classic off the 1 1/4-mile Super Derby at Louisiana Downs. The distance of the Jockey Club Gold Cup was shortened to 1 1/4 miles in 1990 to make it a better fit with the BC Classic.
Fourth, as explained earlier, one can never be totally confident when picking a favorite in a Saratoga stakes race.
Below are my selections for the Jim Dandy:
1. Essential Quality
2. Masqueparade
3. Keepmeinmind
4. Weyburn
Essential Quality was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt has won six of seven lifetime starts going into the Jim Dandy. He’s been perfect other than finishing fourth in the Grade I Kentucky Derby on May 1.
Though Essential Quality did not win the Kentucky Derby, I believe a case can be made that he ran the best race as the 5-2 favorite. As I have previously pointed out, according to Trakus, Essential Quality had such a wide trip that he traveled 68 feet (approximately seven to eight lengths) farther than 12-1 Medina Spirit, who finished first in the field of 19.
Many have raved about Hot Rod Charlie for running such a terrific race in defeat in the Belmont. I agree that Hot Rod Charlie’s performance in the Belmont deserved praise because he managed to finish second despite running the first quarter-mile in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths. It was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.
However, Hot Rod Charlie received so much attention for his effort in the Belmont that it seemed to overshadow Essential Quality’s victorious performance. Essential Quuality ran his final quarter in :24 3/5. How marvelous was that? When Secretariat won the 1973 Belmont by a stupendous 31 lengths and posted a final time of 2:24 flat to obliterate the track record by 2 3/5 seconds, he ran the final quarter in :25 flat.
It’s also to Essential Quality’s credit that, again according to Trakus, he traveled 45 feet (approximately five lengths) farther than Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont.
As I see it, Masqueparade is the main threat to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy. The Kentucky-bred Upstart colt appears to be blossoming for trainer Al Stall Jr.
On the Kentucky Derby undercard, Masqueparade won a 1 1/8-mile allowance/optional claiming race by 11 3/4 lengths. He received a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, just slightly lower than the 100 Beyer that Essential Quality recorded in the Run for the Roses.
Masqueparade’s 97 was a giant leap in the Beyer Speed Figure department from his previous top of an 81. He proved the 91 was not a fluke by registering a 98 when he subsequently won the Ohio Derby by a half-length as a 2-1 favorite (from an 8-1 morning line) at Thistledown on June 26 in his graded stakes debut.
Following Masqueparade’s win in the Grade III Ohio Derby, he now will try to continue his winning ways at the Grade II level this Saturday.
Masqueparade had a crisp four-furlong workout in :47.59 last Friday at Saratoga. It was the third-fastest of 87 works at the distance that morning on Saratoga’s main track.
“He came out of the Ohio Derby well, shipped up here [to Saratoga] well, had a couple of breezes and he’s galloping fine,” Stall was quoted as saying to horseracingnation.com’s Matt Stahl. “It looks like a one-horse race with a legitimate 2-5, 3-5 shot. We’ll just see how competitive we are with arguably the best three-year-old in the country. Just trying to see where he stacks up with that type of horse…Our horse has improved quite a bit lately. We just want to give him a chance to see how much more he can improve.”
Keepmeinmind is taking another crack at Essential Quality this Saturday. Thus far, Keepmeinmind has been outrun by Essential Quality all four times that they have met.
When Essential Quality won the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year on Oct. 3, Keepmeinmind finished second as a maiden. When Essential Quality won the Grade I BC Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6, Keepmeinmind ran third while still a maiden.
Keepmeinmind then earned his maiden diploma by taking the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill on Nov. 28. Off that win, it appeared that the Kentucky-bred Laoban colt might do quite well this year. But Keepmeinmind has not won a race this year. In fact, he has finished better than third only once in five 2021 starts so far.
In one of Keepmeinmind’s four losses this year, he again was defeated by Essential Quality. When Essential Quality won the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3, Keepmeinmind finished finish fifth and lost by 16 lengths.
In the Kentucky Derby, Keepmeinmind lacked early speed and never threatened when again outrun by Essential Quality. Keepmeinmind certainly did not disgrace himself, though. After being 19th early, he generated enough of a rally to finish seventh.
In his next start, Keepmeinmind acquitted himself well in defeat. He finished third, only a half-length behind the victorious Masqueparade, in the Ohio Derby. Keepmeinmind recorded a career-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, which could serve as a good building block to the Jim Dandy.
Weyburn lost by only a neck in a fine try when second to Mandaloun in Monmouth Park’s Pegasus Stakes on June 13. Mandaloun, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby, won the recent Grade I Haskell Stakes at Monmouth via the disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie.
Jimmy Jerkens trains Weyburn, who earlier this year won Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes on March 6.
This Saturday, Jimmy Jerkens endeavors to upset Essential Quality with Weyburn. Jerkens is trying to take a page out of his late Hall of Famer father’s book in that, as noted earlier, it was Allen Jerkens who sent out Onion to topple Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney.
VANDERBILT ALSO ON SARATOGA PROGRAM
Also to be decided this Saturday at Saratoga is the Grade I Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes, a six-furlong sprint that has drawn an excellent field of nine.
Below are my selections for the Vanderbilt:
1. Mischevious Alex
2. Whitmore
3. Firenze Fire
4. Miles Ahead
Mischevious Alex cuts back to six furlongs and bids to resume his winning ways after finishing third in the Grade I Met Mile at Belmont Park on June 5. All three of his 2001 starts prior to the Met Mile were in races shorter than one mile. He won those three races by 3 1/4 lengths or more.
In his most recent start before the Met Mile, Mischevious Alex won Aqueduct’s Grade I Carter Handicap with authority by 5 1/2 lengths on April 3. I ranked this at No. 7 on my list of the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States this year from Jan. 1 through June 30.
In the Carter, Mischevious Alex raced third early in the field of five. He took command with a furlong to go and drew away while proving a punctual 4-5 favorite. The 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., completed seven furlongs in 1:23.97.
Mischevious Alex recorded a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the Carter. From a Beyer standpoint, no one recorded a higher figure during the first half of 2021. Only one horse matched that figure. Essential Quality likewise received a 109 Beyer for his victory in the Belmont Stakes.
The only bigger 2001 Beyer to date than 109 is Knick’s Go’s 113 for his 10 1/4-length victory in Prairie Meadows’ Grade III Cornhusker Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on July 2. Knicks Go is scheduled to make his next start in Saratoga’s Grade I Whitney Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on Aug. 7.
Whitmore was voted a 2021 Eclipse Award as champion male sprinter after he won the Grade I BC Sprint at odds of 18-1. Though he is winless in three starts this year at the age of 8, he has finished second or third each time. In his most recent outing, Whitmore lost by only a head when third to Flagstaff and Lexingtonian in the Grade II Churchill Downs Stakes on May 1.
Firenze Fire comes into the Vanderbilt in sharp form. He has two wins and a second from three 2021 starts, all at Belmont. After winning the Grade III Runhappy Stakes on May 8 and Grade II True North Stakes on June 4, the 6-year-old son of Pleasantly Perfect lost a toughie when runner-up by a head to Mind Control in the Grade II John A. Nerud Stakes on July 4.
Trained by Kelly Breen, Firenze Fire has lost six in a row on Saratoga’s main track since winning the Grade III Sanford Stakes on it in 2017.
Miles Ahead, who was in for a $12,000 claiming tag with no takers early in 2020, comes off a half-length win in the Grade III Smile Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park on July 3 for trainer Eddie Plesa Jr.
WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO…?
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is represented in the Vanderbilt by Strike Power, who comes off a third in the Kelly’s Landing Stakes at Churchill on June 25.
Asmussen is on the verge of equaling Dale Baird’s all-time North American training record of 9,445 victories. Through Tuesday, July 27, Asmussen trailed Baird by only 10, according to Equibase.
“The 9,445 has been on my mind and it is the goal,” Asmussen said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Marcus Hersh. “However many licensed trainers there’ve been in the history of the sport, I’d like to be the one to do it.”
Asmussen also nominated Yaupon to the Vanderbilt, but the 4-year-old Uncle Mo colt was not entered. Yaupon won the six-furlong Lit the Fuse Stakes at Pimlico on July 4 as a 2-5 favorite.
After winning the first four races of his career, Yaupon finished eighth as the 13-10 favorite in the G1 BC Sprint in his final 2020 start.
Speaking of Asmussen-trained sprinters, whatever happened to Nashville? He seems to have disappeared after finishing fourth as the 13-10 favorite in Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes last Dec. 26.
The exceedingly swift Nashville was undefeated before his loss in the Malibu, winning by 11 1/2, 9 3/4 and 3 1/2 lengths.
Even though Nashville has not had a recorded workout since the Malibu, the Costa Rica-based gambling website Bovada currently lists him as the 6-1 favorite for this year’s BC Sprint at Del Mar on Nov. 6. Firenze Fire is 7-1. C Z Rocket and Yaupon are each 8-1. Flagstaff, Mind Control and Whitmore are each 16-1.
In addition to Nashville, whatever happened to Q B One and Uncle Chuck?
Last year on July 8, Q B One led off Jay Privman’s Daily Racing Form story regarding 2-year-olds to watch for at the upcoming Del Mar summer meet.
Q B One, trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, is a son of Eclipse Award winner Uncle Mo and four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder. Q B One is Beholder’s first foal.
“He’s a big, growthy colt,” Privman quoted Mandella as saying.
According to Privman, Mandella at that time said “Q B One isn’t far off from making his debut.”
But over a year later, Q B One still has yet to make his debut. He hasn’t had a recorded workout since going five furlongs in 1:00.20 on Jan. 16 at Santa Anita.
Uncle Chuck raced three times last year. He won a maiden race at Santa Anita by three lengths, then registered a four-length victory in the Grade III Los Alamitos Derby. In his next start, Uncle Chuck was the 5-2 second favorite vs. 1-2 wagering choice Tiz the Law in the Grade I Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8.
Tiz the Law won the Travers by 5 1/2 lengths. Uncle Chuck finished sixth. I was looking forward to seeing what Uncle Chuck might do this year. In his only recorded workout since the Travers, he was timed in :37.60 for a three-furlong move on Jan. 10 at Los Alamitos.
Nashville, Q B One and Uncle Chuck are what I call “milk carton” horses.
2-YEAR-OLD COLTS GENERATING EXCITEMENT
Even though Wit has yet to break alertly, he has crushed his opponents in both starts to date.
When debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race on a wet track rated good June 5 at Belmont Park, Wit won by six lengths. In the ensuing Grade III Sanford Stakes, a six-furlong affair again contested on a wet strip termed good July 17 at Saratoga, he was eight lengths in front at the finish.
In the Sanford, Wit succeeded in a race that Man o’ War lost.
Trained by new Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Wit recorded only a 70 Beyer Speed Figure at first asking. The Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt improved substantially to a 90 in the Sanford.
Meanwhile, on the West Coast, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert unveiled a colt with a bright future last Sunday at Del Mar when Murray won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race by 10 3/4 lengths.
Unlike Wit in his two races, Murray exited the starting gate quickly. Murray then was perfectly willing to cooperate with jockey Flavien Prat when Prat asked Murray to sit a couple of lengths off the fast pace. Highly regarded first-time starter Drink the Wind, backed down to 11-10 favoritism, zipped the opening quarter in :21.54.
Murray moved up readily to take the lead turning into the stretch, then drew off in the stretch. He received a 78 Beyer, but I think this figure does not do justice to Murray’s performance. To me, it’s a 78 plus. That’s because Murray was far from all out. Indeed, as noted in the Equibase race chart comments, Murray “powered away under hand urging in the final furlong and was geared down near the wire.” According to the chart, Murray “won handily,” a description that deserves credit for its accuracy.
If Prat had been interested in having Murray get the highest speed figure that he possibly could, I think the young colt definitely would have run a much higher Beyer than 78.
Remember, as noted earlier, Wit recorded only a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in his first race. Essential Quality logged just a 69 Beyer when he overcame a troubled trip to win a six-furlong maiden race at Churchill last year on Sept. 5 in his first career start. Murray’s 78 Beyer looks a lot better when put into that context.
Murray also gives every indication that he will excel going farther than 5 1/2 furlongs. In addition to drawing away in the lane last Sunday, he galloped out with gusto. And then there is Murray’s pedigree. He is a son of Street Sense and the Tiznow mare Now Now.
Talk about a 2-year-old bred to win a Breeders’ Cup race. Street Sense won the BC Juvenile in 2006. Tiznow won the BC Classic in 2000 and again in 2001. Tiznow still has the distinction of being the only two-time BC Classic winner.
I sure wish the tremendous writer Jim Murray were still alive. How much fun might he have had writing about Murray?
Another seemingly very talented 2-year-old in Southern California is Big City Lights, who worked four furlongs Tuesday in a bullet :46.80 at Del Mar. It was the fastest of 31 works at the distance.
Luis Mendez trains Big City Lights. The California-bred Mr. Big colt is two for two. Big City Lights kicked off his racing career with a runaway 12 1/2-length victory a 4 1/2-furlong maiden race May 2 at Santa Anita. As an encore, he took the six-furlong Fasig-Tipton Futurity by 7 1/4 lengths at that same venue on June 20.
Big City Lights recorded a 93 Beyer Speed Figure in his first race. It’s the biggest Beyer recorded by a 2-year-old male or female this year through July 27.
In his second race, Big City Lights recorded an 85 Beyer.
Big City Lights is expected to put his unblemished record on the line in Del Mar’s Grade II Best Pal Stakes at six furlongs on Aug. 7.
THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
In terms of this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, Althiqa is out and Hot Rod Charlie is in.
Althiqa drops out of the Top 10 after being No. 10 last week. Hot Rod Charlie, who was not in the Top 10 last week, takes Althiqa’s place at No. 10 this week.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 327 Letruska (16)
2. 279 Maxfield (6)
3. 250 Domestic Spending (7)
3. 250 Silver State (3)
5. 215 Essential Quality (3)
6. 151 Knicks Go
7. 104 Mystic Guide (2)
8. 101 Gamine
9. 55 Mandaloun
10. 48 Hot Rod Charlie
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park
Sam Houston Race Park - Race 2 Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 550 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 62 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:53P QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ONE FLYING JESS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureAMERICAN FAVORITE Slow ONE FLYING JESS Slow DON CHITO Slow CAPTAINJACK Average GRANDS CHOISE Fast ELKHORN CREEK Average FAMOUS FOR MY KISSES Slow/Trouble-prone BIG DADDY MAGIC Average LIL KOOL SURVIVOR Average YOURE JUSTA STRAY AW Average
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for North Dakota Horse Park
North Dakota Horse Park - Race 2 Claiming $2,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $2,750 • Post: 1:30P FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD FILLIES AND MARES CLAIMING $2,500.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FUNNY FLOWERS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DISTINCT FLIRT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ALWAYS A TIZ: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MEMORABLE ANGEL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FUNNY FLOWERS DISTINCT FLIRT ALWAYS A TIZ MEMORABLE ANGEL
Line
Class
Speed
FigureALWAYS A TIZ Front-runner TEARS OF FEAR Front-runner FUNNY FLOWERS Stalker HIT IT UP Stalker DISTINCT FLIRT Alternator/Stalker MEMORABLE ANGEL Alternator/Stalker SHACKETTE Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $53000 Class Rating: 106
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $7,500 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MAY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 4 LYKAN 6/1
# 5 DIGITAL 12/1
# 2 COLTONATOR 8/5
LYKAN is the top wager in this race. He has recorded decent numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this group. Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 89 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the best in this group. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed figure - 98 - of his last affair. DIGITAL - With a +13 ROI, this jock and conditioner combo has produced strong returns as of late for risk takers. If you look closely, this horse has some longshot possibilities. COLTONATOR - He ought to be carefully examined given the solid speed figures. Has very good early speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this field.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Del Mar - Race #6 - Post: 4:36pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating:
#4 RAILSPLITTER (ML=3/1)
#8 SILENT MUSKETIER (ML=15/1)
#7 VERY IRISH (ML=20/1)
RAILSPLITTER - This thoroughbred could be tough in this race, especially since Ortega rode last race out and now should be acquainted with this one. Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite pattern, getting closer with each and every race. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the capability to make his presence felt. I like to invest in this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a strong contest within the last month or so. SILENT MUSKETIER - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this rider/trainer combination. VERY IRISH - I really like that last effort on Jul 5th at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre where he ran first. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. DeAlba drops him in this affair in great shape.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DARK PRINCE (ML=2/1), #2 UNILATERAL (ML=7/2), #6 DR. HOFFMAN (ML=4/1),
DARK PRINCE - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended layoff and no drop in level of competition. UNILATERAL - This gelding finished off the board on May 28th and wasn't close to victory last time out either. Common speed rating in the last race at Santa Anita at 1 1/8 miles. Don't think this runner will improve too much in today's race. DR. HOFFMAN - A pattern of deteriorating speed figures 84/79/72 for this questionable contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #4 RAILSPLITTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: 4 with [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Arlington - Race #6 - Post: 4:58pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating:
#2 UNPREDICTABLE BAY (ML=5/1)
#6 DEGREE OF RISK (ML=7/2)
#4 RUSSIAN TANK (ML=6/1)
UNPREDICTABLE BAY - Loveberry and Ali partnered together are a punter's friend. This colt made his bow on Jun 26th and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from him today. DEGREE OF RISK - Bowen rode this horse for the initial time last time out and comes right back this time. Based on morning drills, I look for this colt to run a big race. Harty drops this one in today for only his second outing. Should do better than last out. RUSSIAN TANK - Finished outside the top 3 last out at Arlington, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think he's got a chance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SPORT PEPPER (ML=5/2), #3 FORE FLAG (ML=3/1),
SPORT PEPPER - This probable favorite ran on July 8th and hasn't had a morning drill since. FORE FLAG - This colt probably won't be really close at the wire.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #2 UNPREDICTABLE BAY is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: 2 with [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 91
MONMOUTH OAKS MTH - R10 - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $250 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, $1,500 TO PASS THE ENTRY THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,500 TO START. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE $150,000, $50,000 TO SECOND, $25,000 TO THIRD, $12,500 TO FOURTH, $7,500 TO FIFTH AND $3,500 TO SIXTH THROUGH LAST. WEIGHT: 121 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 9 EDIE MEENY MINY MO 4/1
# 8 COPPELIA 6/1
# 3 LEADER OF THE BAND 9/2
My selection in this race is EDIE MEENY MINY MO. Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Espinoza ought to be able to get this filly to break out sharply for this event. Is a solid choice - given the 100 speed rating from her most recent race. COPPELIA - Has performed soundly recently in route races, posting a nifty 89 avg speed figure. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed figure - 89 - of her last outing. LEADER OF THE BAND - One of the best win percentages between this rider and conditioner make this filly dangerous. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Servis have shown strong results recently.
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