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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
August 1, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 10-race card ready to roll. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 7. That sequence will have a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7
5-Round Here Buzz (2-1)-Team Leonard 3-year-old has been getting better and now drops to a more comfortable spot. Should get a nice trip from this spot but will be a short price.
7-Everychanceitake (7/2)-Likes to get on the engine and should be able to get there without emptying the tank. If Husted could steal a quarter or 2 it could be time for an overdue picture.
Race 8
1-Sunny And Eighty (5/2)-Interesting race with 2 and 3-year-olds and Leonard gets the assignment because Wilfong drives for his family. Hasn't raced since 7-2 and won last with a 56.3 back half. Gets the post edge on the older foes and should be a player if tight enough.
4-Born Desire (6-1)-Tuned up with a couple of Fair races and has shown some speed here in previous starts. Can pass foes down the lane and might surprise if in striking range. Could be overlooked at the windows and offer a solid price.
10-Aza Diamonds (9/5)-This 3-year-old has speed but this post draw won't help the cause. If Wilfong can work a smooth trip it could be the 1st picture in 14 starts. Tough to leave out but won't offer much value.
Race 9
3-Almostalawyer (5-1)-Husted drives for the 2nd straight time and he had this mare rolling in the 2nd half but a sluggish start hurt. Camera shy 5-year-old just might break her maiden tonight with a sharp steer.
4-Yungfrau (6-1)-Three-year-old filly has a breaking issue but Leonard sticks and he also steered in both qualifiers. There isn't much form in this field and will take a swing for a nice price.
5-Esther's Delight (3-1)-Esther is the morning line chalk but she is 0-8 and also has breaking issues. Could have the most speed in the field and is tough to leave out but might be overbet.
8-Thisbabesaterror (12-1)-Warren had this filly rolling with a .56 back half and could make some noise if close to the lead at the top of the stretch.
Race 10
6-Sweet But Psycho (2-1)-Winner of 4 straight squeezes into this class again and draws better than the last 3 starts. Will lose at some point but looks like a main player once again.
7-Always B Mimi (7/2)-Went off as the 9/5 chalk versus this kind last week and raced evenly to finish 3rd. Should be a better price tonight and there isn't 3 weeks between starts this time.
0.50 Late Pick 4
5,7/1,4,10/3,4,5,8/6,7
Total Bet=$24
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Sunday, August 1, 2021
August 1, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade:
Use: 4-Just Distorted; 5-Big Sweep
Forecast: Big Sweep ran huge in her first outing in 10 months when finishing in a dead-heat for second behind the talented Private Mission in a very strong race that earned a smart speed rating. Since that race she’s been given sufficient time to be fit and ready today, with a recent five furlong workout in 1:00.3 eight days ago indicating that she’s spot on. Perfect in one start over the Del Mar main track, the daughter of Mr. Big retains regular pilot F. Prat and seems the likely choice and one to beat at 8/5 on the morning line. Just Distorted has strong credentials as well and is a “must use” rolling exotic play. Second in her debut, the J. Wong-trained filly stepped forward to graduate in good style in her next outing at the expense of the well-regarded Sea Dreamer, a next-out winner by many lengths while significantly franking the form.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Magnolia; 2-Time to Party; 6-Urban
Forecast: In a two-old turf sprint with a pair of quick fillies tackling the boys, Urban, a $375,000 Timonium purchase where she previewed beautifully is 10 1/5 seconds, may be the best of the lot. Closely related to champion filly Abel Tasman, she debuts sprinting following a work tab that should have her plenty fit and ready. The daughter of Quality Road lands the barn’s main guy U. Rispoli and appears quick enough to be comfortable at this five furlong trip and may be worth a gamble. Work mate Magnolia, listed at 15-1 on the morning line, is no slouch either and is worth using on your ticket as well. As for the others, hot trainer P. Miller has three in the field of seven, all of whom have done their preparation out of sight at the San Luis Rey Downs training center, so we’re largely guessing as to which, if any, are worth including in your rolling exotics. Time to Party, a $72,000 OBS purchase in January of his yearling year, is bred to win right now, and a :59 4/5 gate work July 17 in company (we assume) with Bombs At Cocal catches the eye. With F. Prat taking the call, the Kantharos gelding would have to be considered something of a live item.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pinehurst; 4-Penetrator; 6-Cabo Spirit
Forecast: Here’s another 2-year-old sprint, this one at five furlongs on the main track. The “stories” might be more interesting than the race itself. Cabo Spirit brought $575,00 at the OBS April sale, where he sizzled a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds, the fastest clocking for the distance, during the preview session. The son of Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t been asked to show anywhere near that type of quickness in his local works but has done everything asked of him while breezing like a very nice prospect. The barn hardly ever wins with first-time starters, so you have to be cautious, but if this colt doesn’t make any mistakes he could be dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line. Pinehurst is another that has trained like a good sort and this B. Baffert-trained son of Twirling Candy should display plenty of speed from the rail, assuming he breaks with his field. Penetrator looked strong in a five furlong gate work with blinkers on last week and appears fit and dangerous for J. Hollendorfer. He’s actually bred to run long on the lawn but the way he breezed over this track you’d have to think he can be competitive under these conditions. Significantly, F. Prat takes the call.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Zero Tolerance; 9-Pequena Tormenta
Forecast: Zero Tolerance was given a strong foundation of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs prior to joining the main string and looked good in both of her drills at Del Mar. She’s bred for grass on both sides of her pedigree, so at 6-1 on the morning line she offers a good price chance in a wide-open maiden dash for older fillies and mares. Pequena Tormenta, listed at 8-1 on the morning line for the R. Baltas barn, is another that has done some promising work in the a.m. and is worth including on your ticket. The barn doesn’t always crank ‘em up early but this one looks like a fairly live item. You can go deeper on your ticket if you like but these are the two we’ll be keying in rolling exotic play.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Rinse and Repeat; 5-Reedley
Forecast: Reedly won easily for $12,500 at Santa Anita in early June and returns almost two months later at this bottom rung $8,000 level. If he has one good one left, he’ll probably score again, but at his morning line of 9/5 he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Rinse and Repeat vans down from Los Alamitos, where he finished second in a pair of recent mixed-breed races. He’s never been big on winning but against this modest group he must be considered a major player. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Burrow Down; 9-Baby’s Dream
Forecast: Burrow Down displayed some ability in a pair of strong sprints for juveniles in Kentucky, and after being given a couple of months off returns in a proper spot while seeking valuable ship-and-win money in this maiden turf router for juvenile fillies. We’re expecting the daughter of Connect to be on the lead, and if she’s not pressed she could take the field a very long. With After Market on the bottom side of her pedigree, she’s certainly bred to move up under these conditions. Baby’s Dream got her feet wet when fourth in a quick turf sprint at Santa Anita in mid-June and returns today stretching out for a more serious effort. The daughter of Texas Ride is bred to run long on the lawn (Declaration of War x Kitten’s Joy), so if she’s going to amount to anything decent this is the trip and surface that should bring out her best.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-K P Silver Bullet; 4-Frost Warning; 12-Kattah
Forecast: Let’s go with the dangerous late-runner K P Silver Bullet in this modest maiden $40,000 extended sprint while hoping that the third time’s the charm for this gelding, who was claimed in both of his starts and today goes for the good W. Spawr stable while dropping down from the $50,000 level. We like his return to dirt, so after a pair of races that may not have shown him in his best light, the son of Secret Circle hopefully will have no excuses today. Northern California shipper Frost Warning surfaces for a tag after finishing a respectable runner-up in a straight maiden sprint at Pleasanton earlier this month. If can repeat that type of race down here, the J. Wong-trained gelding may take some catching. This is very realistic spot according to his speed figures,. Kattah closed a gap but too late to be a non-threatening, distant third in his debut vs. straight maidens last month at Santa Anita. He draws the comfortable outside post, and while he’s certainly not a speed type the R. Hanson-trained gelding should have every chance to make a late impression.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Fly the Sky; 5-In Vronsky Style; 6-Catemaco
Forecast: Here’s a stronger-than-par first level allowance sprint for state-bred older horses. It’s a deep field with three appearing to be a cut above the rest. In Vronsky Style is a progressive gelding fresh from a sharp maiden tally sprinting on grass at Santa Anita, and with another forward move today the P. D’Amato-trained four-year-old will be tough to deny right back. Though he has plenty of early zip, the son of Vronsky could be just as effective if held up and allowed to quicken late if that’s what the race flow demands. Catemaco ran off and hid at 14-1 in his debut on New Year’s Day in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita that earned a strong speed figure, but then disappeared. If he returns as well as he left, the K. Mulhall-trained colt should be a major contender despite the required raise in class and the switch in surface. Fly the Sky has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and will be running on late, so if the early fractions are faster than par the S. Miyadi-trained gelding could make some serious noise late. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Venetian Harbor; 7-Shedaresthedevil
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Clement L. Hirsch S.-G1 is loaded with speed, so the natural inclination is to the find the best closer. Sometimes, though, the quickest of the quick gains control and never looks back, and that certainly could happen here with the sprinter-stretching-out Venetian Harbor. The daughter of Munnings was spectacular in winning her 2021 debut in the Monrovia S.-G2 on turf last month but she’s also a graded stakes winner routing on the main track, so it’s not like she can’t get the trip if allowed to be the controlling speed. The way she’s been training at San Luis Rey Downs, the R. Baltas-trained filly appears better than ever. Shedaresthedevil is the deserved morning line favorite at 7/5 and has proven she can stalk, pounce, and go-by, so from her outside draw the B. Cox-trained filly surely will employ those tactics today. Given the projected race flow and the type of trip she’s likely to enjoy, the high-class daughter of Daredevil is strictly the one to beat. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play in a race that features several top class older females who may meet again over this track in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in November.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mongolian Mission; 4-Fabiolla; 5-Quinevere
Forecast: Quinevere seeks ship-and-win money in her first local start and her first for P. Miller, so we’re expecting a major effort from the German-bred filly who will be racing in a claimer for the first time in her three race career. Her form back east doesn’t look like much, but her numbers make her a good fit at this level and the work tab at San Luis Downs indicates she’s fit and doing well. At 5-1 on the morning line under U. Rispoli, she’s worth a play. Mongolian Mission is lightly-raced, improving, drawn nicely inside and shows speed figures that have risen in each of her four career starts. That’s the good news. The bad is that the barn is 0-for-41 this year. We’ll at least save with here. Fabiolla is a 15-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she’s stretching out after a good recent sprint effort and is a fit on figures, so we’ll toss her in as well.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, August 1, 2021
August 1, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Single: 2-Everesting
Forecast: Everesting has very little to beat in this maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint and with blinkers on from a favorable inside draw the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained colt projects to be on or near the lead throughout. His runner-up at this level over a mile at Gulfstream Park last spring charts well here and his close fourth vs. straight maidens at Belmont Park two runs back earned a speed figure good enough to beat this group. There’s not a lot of value to be found – he’s 2-1 on the morning line – so in a race that could be won by anybody if it’s not our top pick we’ll make the son of Frosted a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B+
Single: 5-Silvery Rill
Forecast: Though the listed workout times don’t jump off the page, Silvery Rill was included in our “Clocker’s Primed and Ready List” this week and should be fit and ready for a major effort first time out of the box for C. Clement. The daughter of War Front has done everything required of her in the a.m. while always looking best (and with plenty left) in team drills, so from a barn that has superb stats with debut runners (23% with a massive ROI) we’re expecting this very promising juvenile filly to take care of business as the 8/5 morning line favorite.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Lookin for Loki; 4-Frosted Indian; 6-Dee Bro
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the third race, a $25,000 claiming sprint for older horses, but not with a great deal of confidence. Lookin for Loki, a $50,000 claim last spring at Churchill Downs, returns for half that amount in his first start for D. Gargan so it’s anybody’s guess as to what kind of shape he’s in, though it should be noted that this stable hits at 39% with the first-off-the-claim maneuver primarily because of an aggressive approach such as this. Obviously good enough if healthy, the Into Mischief gelding will be within range throughout while saving ground and have every chance if he’s feeling up to it. Dee Bro is racing in good form while moving up in class off a claim and projects to be prominent throughout with a comfortable trip outside. He’ll need strong handling from the 10-pound bug rider. Frosted Indian lacks tactical speed but should be running on late after finishing a decent but distant second in a lesser spot earlier this meeting. He’s not as fast on speed figures as the others but at least has a reasonably healthy pattern.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Smooth Pebble; 6-Jades Gelly; 9-Jill’s a Hot Mess
Forecast: Here’s a spread race for starter’s allowance fillies and mares sprinting on grass. Smooth Pebble seeks her third straight score and should maintain her good form while shortening in trip. She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but is being protected for the first time in her career and has proven to be a versatile type that can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so J. Rosario can play the break, assess the pace flow and choose his strategy. Jill’s a Hot Mess has dangerous early speed and if she can shake loose early without pressure she could prove to be an elusive target. Jades Gelly is a bit faster on numbers than our top pick and looked good when beating a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming group at Belmont Park last month. Given her improving form and high percentage connections, the daughter of Lea should offer good value at or near her morning line of 6-1
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Whittington Park, Who Hoo That’s Me; 3-Rotknee
Forecast: We’ll focus on the inside three runners in this main track sprint for New York-bred juveniles. Whittington Park has done some good work in the a.m. for the high-percentage B. Cox barn and if leaves cleanly from the rail the Midnight Lute could be a major factor in a wide-open affair. The barn is just okay with debut runners but according to the work tab this colt should be plenty fit for a winning effort. Who Hoo That’s Me, a Keen Ice homebred colt, shows a steady and healthy work tab for trainer J. Abreu, whose stats with newcomers is off the charts (28% with a huge flat-bet profit). A bullet gate work (5f, 1:00.3hg) last month catches the eye. Rotknee, a reasonable third in his debut over a muddy track last month at Belmont Park, has every right to produce a forward move for the M. Maker barn (solid stats with the second-time starter angle) while adding blinkers. The son of Runhappy shows a bullet three furlong blowout (:35 3/5) since raced and switches to the stable’s “go to” guy J. Ortiz. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with perhaps a very slight edge on top to Whittington Park.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-New York Girl; 2-Platinum Paynter; 5-Miss Teheran
Forecast: The allowance/optional claimer looks made to order for New York Girl. Overmatched in the Just A Game S.-G1 last time out, the W. Mott-trained filly is realistically spotted today after being consistently competitive in graded stakes company earlier this year. From the rail, the Irish-bred filly may be able to outclass this field. Miss Teheran has a reasonable look at 7/2 on the morning line. Second in photos in her last pair, the C. Brown-trained mare is due for some better luck and with a little help up front may be able tag the speed close home. Platinum Paynter likes the front end going long and if not pressured early could take this field a long way. Winless in four starts in 2021, the ex-claimer has numbers that make her dangerous, so we’ll toss her in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Town Classic; 6-Aloha West
Forecast: Town Classic crushed a $50,000 field at Belmont Park, was promptly claimed by M. Maker, and looks tough on the raise in this allowance/optional claiming main track sprint. Previously, the veteran son of Speightstown had earned a reputation as a gelding who’d rather finish second or third (31 times) than win (seven times) but based on his most recent authoritative score he can successfully handle the class hike. Aloha West was a tad disappointing when fourth in a listed stakes in late June at Churchill Downs but against this band the Hard Spun could easily bounce back. The W. Catalano-trained colt switches to J. Rosario and will be running on late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mirabell Mei; 6-Amortization; 7-Exotic West
Forecast: Here’s a real grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Exotic West, dropping off a $50,000 claim and removing blinkers while picking up J. Rosario, has a right to significantly improve under these conditions and at 8-1 on the morning line offers good long shot value. She should be prominent throughout, maybe even on the lead, and given that type of trip she could get very brave. Mirabell Mei is a deep closer exiting a pair of tougher starter’s allowance races and should be heard from late. On numbers, she’s right there with these. Amortization is lightly raced with some improvement in her. Her maiden win two runs back last December at the Big A earned a number that fits at this level but a poor run in June at Monmouth Park as the favorite in her comeback was disappointing. She’s reunited with “win rider” M. Franco, so perhaps she can step forward.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: X
Single: 3-Jackie’s Warrior
Forecast: We get a rematch of the terrific Woody Stephens S.-G1 in this year’s edition of the Amsterdam S.-G2 at the slightly shorter six and one-half furlong distance with Drain the Clock and Jackie’s Warrior renewing their rivalry. ‘Clock got the best of ‘Warrior at Belmont Park but the latter is perfect in two starts at Spa, having won both the Saratoga Special S.-G2 and the Hopeful S.-G1 last year, so perhaps with the change in venue the son of Maclean’s Music can turn the tables. Truthfully, either one can win, but with ‘Warrior favorably drawn outside he’ll be able to dictate the race flow and therefore have the edge.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Esotica; 5-Elusive Site
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the nightcap in a race that should boil down to main contenders. Elusive Site, listed at 5-1 on the morning line, displayed good speed before weakening late to wind up fourth, beaten 13 lengths, in her debut here last year and then was stopped on. She’s being tossed away by T. Pletcher (27% with layoffs) while adding Lasix in this modest affair, not a healthy or encouraging sign, but against this group she might get loose and get brave, so we’ll put her on top. Esotica was a voided claim at this level in late May at Belmont Park when a decent third over a sloppy surface, so, similar to our top pick, she has a big condition question. From the rail, she’s likely to be sent from the bell. This is an “anything goes” type of race and probably is best left alone.
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Eddie Olczyk: Sunday Spot Plays | August 1, 2021
August 1, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk
NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk focuses on a pair of Del Mar plays on Sunday to kick off August. Follow Edzo’s plays each week
Del Mar
Race 7 // 8:00 pm ET // maiden claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs
#2 K P Silver Bullet (4-1 ML)
Gelded since last effort in May when claimed by Bill Spawr. Gets pace to stalk and drops in class from $50,000 to $40,000. Win bet. Daily Double 2-6 to second spot play today.
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Del Mar
Race 8 // 8:30 pm ET // optional claiming // 5 furlongs (turf)
#6 Catemaco (4-1 ML)
His dam was million dollar-plus seller back in 2003. No foals to win on turf yet, but, to me, this one looks special. Consider grass breeding with sire, quick in maiden score, been off a while, but has been working steady since end of May. Love the blow-out in last workout. Win bet and using 3 Star Racer underneath in exotics.
Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate
August 1, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Golden Gate ends its brief season on Sunday, and the Late Pick 4 on closing day looks inviting.
The Albany, Calif., track will have another short meeting Aug. 6-15 and then will finish with a longer stand Aug. 27-Oct. 3.
Today’s Late Pick 4 runs from races 6-9 and includes a maiden special weight with an intriguing southern California first-timer, a claiming event, an allowance feature, and a claiming race to end the day.
Here’s a look at we give it a go in the Late Pick 4:
6th Race (7:15 p.m. ET, maiden special weight)
OMNIA VINCIT is a Curlin first-timer from Michael McCarthy’s stable and despite not having fast works has a long list of steady drills and his connections have chosen to see his initial start on Tapeta.
McCarthy has 30-percent on All-Weather, but is seven percent on first timers. Despite that, the journey from southern California indicates he’s giving it a go in his colt’s debut. He’s not running against Baffert firsters and lands in a good spot here.
Others on the ticket: CHARLOTTE HARBOR.
7th Race (7:45 p.m. ET, claiming)
HONOS MAN just missed at Pleasanton and was claimed by Howey. Veteran Frank Alvarado gets the ride as this one goes ‘blinkers off’.
He last won in 2020 and was in against much higher levels at Del Mar and Santa Anita before moving to the Bay Area. He has been on the board in three of four since his arrival, and finished second after rallied against a super-slow pace two races back.
He’s poised for another good effort but tackles some other that are in good form as well.
Others on the ticket: COMBAT ZONE, LORD WIMBORNE, KODIACTION.
8th Race (8:15 p.m. ET, allowance)
SMILEFORME returns to Golden Gate after an impressive and quick win at Los Alamitos. He’s won three of four races and moves up to the allowance ranks.
The Wong trainee won for $12,5000 two back at Golden Gate and has a record of three wins and a second in five starts since moving over to the Wong stable. He’s a five-time winner overall and can get a good ground-saving trip. He’ll have to handle a quick crew right next to him but could rate the edge.
Others on the ticket: THE LITTLE H MAN, IN OUR A.
9th Race (8:45 p.m. ET, claiming)
PEQUENO MONTE finished second in two at Pleasanton and returns to where he won his two races. Can get a good trip just off the pace and has shown that he has a knack for improving position late in the game.
The $5,000 claiming level brings together several in good form and looks like the biggest spread race in the sequence.
Others on the ticket: HULA KING, MIKE OPERATOR, MINOSO, HYPERSONIC.
Golden Gate 50-cent Late Pick 4 (races 6-9):
6) #3 Charlotte Harbor, #6 Omnia Vincit.
7) #1 Honos Man, #3 Combat Zone, #5 Lord Wimborne, #6 Kodiaction.
8) #1 Smileforme, #2 The Little H Man, #3 In Our A.
9) #2 Hula King, #3 Pequeno Monte, #6 Mike Operator, #7 Minoso, #8 Hypersonic.
Suggested ticket: 3-6 with 1-3-5-6 with 1-2-3 with 2-3-6-7-8 ($60).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #5
Arlington - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Dream Attack He has a little potential upside with the blinkers going on for the first time, and something like his two-back run when chasing a tough winner might do the trick here. #2 B G Attack He showed pace before settling for second in that last one, but he probably has a little bit of company out of the gate and might be overbet while trying the local footing for the first time. #1 Dastardly Deeds He's a 4yo gelding making his career debut, so there have clearly been some hiccups along the way, but he's got a pedigree that's superior to the rest of these. Chance, but get a good look at him. Race Summary Dream Attack cuts back to this sprint trip while adding blinkers, and he's already not far off what it might take to land this one.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Mr. Eleventh Hour He has some pace and owns a win over the trip this season, and the move back to the grass might work in his favor. There's a chance he wires these. #3 Grand Hideaway Finisher still has some proving to do on the turf with no in-the-money finishes from three tries, but the recent form looks competitive if he's able to transfer it. #5 Overpraise Cutback player has run well in the past, but the recent form isn't much to write home about, and I wouldn't be too interested at anything like the 5/2 ML price. Race Summary Mr. Eleventh Hour might be quick enough to find the front with these, and that may be enough to get him home, as his better races are certainly competitive here.
Picks Notes #9 Clever Kitten Barn has shown they can win with this type before, and she might offer a playable enough price first time out. Take a look at her on the track. #6 Plus Chic She's bred to be solid, and the morning drills have been regular and culminated with a best of 36 work last week. She probably wants to go longer, but she's interesting here. #4 Ding Ding Pace has had three chances already, but speed can be dangerous at this trip, and maybe she sticks around better on the new footing today. Race Summary Clever Kitten is one of many interesting debuters here, and I had a tough time splitting the top pair -- landed on 'Kitten due to the likely better price, but both will be featured heavily on top in my plays.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #1
Del Mar - Race #8
Picks Notes #2 Livingmybestlife Was a $50,000 claim on debut when she was second, followed with a maiden special win at Oaklawn and an allowance optional claiming win at Santa Anita. Sharp get by Sadler and the The Big Beast filly can add another win. #3 Forest Caraway Makes her first start since October and has a good record at Del Mar, having a maiden win and a second-place finish in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. She has a long string of works and is 'blinkers off' and first-time Lasix. #5 Big Sweep Two-time winner of Cal-bred stakes (once vs. boys) comes in off a second and fits with these. Race Summary Livingmybestlife was an outstanding claim in her first one and has responded to her new barn; can get to the lead and should be one to catch under Victor Espinoza.
Del Mar - Race #9
Picks Notes #5 In Vronsky Style Has his best day last out when he crushed maidens on turf in fast time; should be able to make the move to this level without a problem. #6 Catemaco Like the top choice had an easy win in that time, this one on debut; moves over to the turf and can be a force from the beginning. #7 El Diablo Rojo Closed well and was up in plenty of time against this level last time; moves to turf and will have to get tied on early. Race Summary In Vronsky Style has been a factor in all three of races, which came on the turf, and should be able to repeat here.
Picks Notes #3 As Time Goes By Goes for her third straight after taking a pair of Grade 2 races in the Santa Margarita and Santa Maria; can be effective without the lead and the daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is three of four in two turn races. Gets the edge in a tremendous renewal of the G1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes. #6 Venetian Harbor Prepped for this with a turf sprint win in the G2 Monrovia and has some terrific works since her victory. Will be the one to catch. #7 Shesdaresthedevil Talented filly has a sharp record on the front end likely will have to stalk in this one. Nothing really to dislike here, and trainer Brad Cox has seen her win half of her 14 starts, including the G1 Kentucky Oaks, among other top-notch races. Race Summary As Time Goes By has been talented from the beginning but seemed to really hit high gear when she began running in two-turn races. Bob Baffert runner can make adjustments in this one and will likely be difficult to beat.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park
Ellis Park - Race 6 Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 73 • Purse: $51,000 • Post: 3:10P (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS.)
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Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MY DAWN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MY DAWN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MY DAWN
Unknown Running Style: THEDEVILYOUSAY (3/1) [Jockey: Talamo Joseph - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M], DEVINE CHARGER (20/1) [Jockey: Mena Miguel - Trainer: Blair Jordan], ABOUKIR BAY (12/1) [Jockey: Graham James - Trainer: Barkley Jason], LADYBELUCKY (10
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Class
Speed
FigureMY DAWN Stalker
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Monmouth Park
Monmouth Park - Race 10 Stakes • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 86 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 4:33P COLLEEN S. - (RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 TO START. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE $60,000, $20,000 TO SECOND, $10,000 TO THIRD, $5,000 TO FOURTH, $3,000 TO FIFTH AND $2,000 TO SIXTH THROUGH LAST. WEIGHT: 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ALLOWED 2 LBS.; AN ALLOWANCE RACE, 4 LBS.; A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, 6 LBS. THE WINNING OWNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. CLOSED FRIDAY, JULY 16, 2021 WITH 31 NOMINATIONS
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Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CHI TOWN LADY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with ho rses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS ALACRITY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TIZPLENTY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). CHI TOWN LADY MISS ALACRITY TIZPLENTY
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Speed
FigureTIZPLENTY Front-runner CHI TOWN LADY Front-runner TOWNPLACE Stalker MISS ALACRITY Stalker CHARGED TEMP Stalker LADY G Trailer SAIL BY Trailer KODAMA (IRE) Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at North Dakota Horse Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6250 Class Rating: 78
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR CERTIFIED NORTH DAKOTA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 7 CORONA FOR AN EAGLE 8/1
# 3 SPEED BALL CHIEF 9/5
# 4 SHESA ROYAL JESS 5/2
CORONA FOR AN EAGLE looks to be a strong contender especially at 8/1. Could provide positive dividends based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 58. With Estrada aboard her, this filly should be able to break out early in this competition. Could beat this group given the 65 Equibase Speed Figure put up in her last outing. SPEED BALL CHIEF - Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 57 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. Ran a very strong last race. SHESA ROYAL JESS - She looks quite good in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in short races as of late.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:30pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,200 Class Rating: 78
Rating:
#5 TEAM FREEDOM (ML=5/1)
#6 THREE BOPS (ML=10/1)
TEAM FREEDOM - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this mare's PPs. Almost always in the money. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Mountaineer Park. Could add another win right here. THREE BOPS - Meeks must have known this filly would run well at this track. Won her last race here on July 12th and now goes for two in a row. You always have to be on the prowl for money making jockey/trainer combinations; we have one right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 VINTAGE READY (ML=6/5), #4 MARCIE'S CANDY (ML=3/1), #1 KITTY'S PROMISE (ML=6/1),
VINTAGE READY - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance affairs in order to back her. This morning-line favorite may be out of condition without any recent workouts. MARCIE'S CANDY - Not likely that the speed fig she notched on Jun 24th will be enough in this race. KITTY'S PROMISE - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to earn a much better speed fig than last time out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THREE BOPS - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This thoroughbred is number one in the bunch and has a good shot to beat this crew.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #5 TEAM FREEDOM to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 97
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 9 GIANT PAYDAY 8/1
# 6 DRAMA CHORUS 6/1
# 4 SHAKES CREEK 3/1
GIANT PAYDAY looks very good to best this field especially at a long price. Ought to be given a chance for this event if only for the competitive speed rating posted in the last race. A solid 103 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. Reliable average speed figs in turf route races make this animal a key contender. DRAMA CHORUS - Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. Butler has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 18 percent rate. SHAKES CREEK - Diodoro has a reliable 22 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Must be given consideration - I like the figures from the last race.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Louisiana Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:29pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 70
Rating:
#5 DOOLIN (ML=4/1)
#2 PRE HEAT (ML=8/1)
#3 TROPHY DADDY (ML=7/2)
DOOLIN - Rangel drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse has a darn good chance at this level. This jockey and handler's equines have been generating a lucrative ROI. PRE HEAT - I like when a horse has dropped in class at least 5 class ratings pts like this one did in the last race and then runs against a similar field right back. Degeyter must've found the right level. This racer brings in a lot of money per race. I believe he will boost the lifetime total right here. TROPHY DADDY - This gelding is in first-rate form right now. Ended up third last time around the track and comes back soon. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BANQUET CHEF (ML=3/1), #4 MONEY COMETH (ML=4/1), #7 NO EXAGGERATION (ML=6/1),
BANQUET CHEF - The speed figures continue to drop, 80/60/41. Not a positive sign. MONEY COMETH - Notched a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on July 12th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. NO EXAGGERATION - This gelding gave a lackluster effort last time. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #5 DOOLIN on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
08/01/21, GP, Race 3, 1.58 ET
08/01/21,GP,3,7 1/2F [Turf About] 1:26:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $70,000 (includes up to $10,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). (INCLUDES UP TO $5,000 State Bred) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 118 lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Seven Furlongs) (Rail at 24 feet).
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 28.57, ROI 0.96/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 7 Classic Film 9/2 Camacho S Sweezey J. Kent JSL 255 37.25 1.24/$1 097.8720 14 The Skipper Too(b+) 7/2 Zayas E J Alvarado Juan EC 255 37.25 1.24/$1 095.9252 4 On Thin Ice 3/1 Vasquez M A Casse Mark E. W 255 37.25 1.24/$1 095.4868 5 Eldon's Prince 5/2 Zayas E J Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. T 255 37.25 1.24/$1 093.4734 8 Gemini Moon(b-) 30/1 Lugo C D Medina Santiago F 255 37.25 1.24/$1 093.4117 10 Kiss Principal 6/1 Maragh R R Hamm Timothy E. 255 37.25 1.24/$1 092.3433 13 Cupid's Dude 6/1 Rios J M Yates Michael 255 37.25 1.24/$1 091.7319 2 T Ville 12/1 Sutherland C McKanas Leon J. 255 37.25 1.24/$1 091.5487 1 Always Above 8/1 Panici L Nihei Michelle 255 37.25 1.24/$1 091.5323 11 Eye On the Candy 12/1 Torres C A Morici Diane D. 255 37.25 1.24/$1 090.9761 3 Drinksonthebeach 20/1 Garcia W A Cazares Laura 255 37.25 1.24/$1 090.3361 6 Borrelly 30/1 Martinez J R Sano Antonio 255 37.25 1.24/$1 090.2241 9 Soulful Song(b-) 30/1 Gonzales J J Dye Steven 255 37.25 1.24/$1 090.0654 12 Grabbing the Money 30/1 Lebron V Dye Steven 255 37.25 1.24/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.1280
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Horse Not Age 3
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 31.76, ROI 0.96/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 14 The Skipper Too(b+) 7/2 Zayas E J Alvarado Juan FEWC 30 53.33 1.57/$1 096.6812 5 Eldon's Prince 5/2 Zayas E J Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. T 30 53.33 1.57/$1 095.6415 8 Gemini Moon(b-) 30/1 Lugo C D Medina Santiago S 66 46.97 1.28/$1 095.5882 4 On Thin Ice 3/1 Vasquez M A Casse Mark E. 30 53.33 1.57/$1 094.6204 10 Kiss Principal 6/1 Maragh R R Hamm Timothy E. 30 53.33 1.57/$1 093.7285 2 T Ville 12/1 Sutherland C McKanas Leon J. 30 53.33 1.57/$1 093.4198 13 Cupid's Dude 6/1 Rios J M Yates Michael 66 46.97 1.28/$1 093.0738 6 Borrelly 30/1 Martinez J R Sano Antonio 30 53.33 1.57/$1 093.0504 3 Drinksonthebeach 20/1 Garcia W A Cazares Laura 30 53.33 1.57/$1 092.9751 1 Always Above 8/1 Panici L Nihei Michelle 76 47.37 1.17/$1 092.8740 12 Grabbing the Money 30/1 Lebron V Dye Steven 66 46.97 1.28/$1 092.5260 9 Soulful Song(b-) 30/1 Gonzales J J Dye Steven 30 53.33 1.57/$1 091.9776 11 Eye On the Candy 12/1 Torres C A Morici Diane D. 66 46.97 1.28/$1 091.2364 7 Classic Film 9/2 Camacho S Sweezey J. Kent JL 30 53.33 1.57/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.3188
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f Or 7 1/2f
*Scratches may change this condition
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