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Monday Myths: Should You Avoid Rookies from the Rail?
August 2, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
Don’t bet a first-time starter from the rail.
Background:
A common handicappers’ stance is to avoid rail-drawn first-time starters. The theory is that they are forced to break with the pack and be hard-used early, otherwise they will be shuffled back as the field comes down up on them. Inexperienced horses aren’t expected to overcome adversity in their opening act.
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters over the past 5 years (Aug. 1, 2016-present). The study included how they fared from the rail draw at sprint distances of 6 furlongs or less as well as how they fared in comparison to other winning posts. The study also looked at rail runners by field size. And, I also looked at debut 2-year-olds vs. debut runners of all ages.
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Post 1 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 2 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 3 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 4 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 5 first-time starters win 10.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 6 first-time starters win 9.8% with a $0.69 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 7 first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 8 first-time starters win 8.7% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 9 first-time starters win 8.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 10 first-time starters win 8.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 11 first-time starters win 6.9% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 12 first-time starters win 5.4% with a $0.46 ROI for every $1 bet.
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Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 6 or less win 14.5% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 7-9 win 10.5% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 10-12 win 8.0% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
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Post 1 first-time starters as 2-year-olds win 11.7% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 3-year-olds win 9.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 4-year-olds win 8.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.
Overall Findings:
Posts 3-4-5 score at the highest rates among first-time starters in sprint races, with the inside two posts next-best. There’s a considerable drop off in win percentage from post 8 and beyond. No doubt larger field sizes have an impact in lowering the win rate for the rail. As for the performance of rail-drawn rookies by age, the 2-year-olds by far had the best win rate and ROI.
Bottom line:
While the rail may not be the ideal spot for a first-time starter, the statistics show it’s not nearly the automatic toss some handicappers exaggerate. You could make the argument that in the largest field sizes, you had better have the best horse to win from the fence.
Additional Details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which tracks have been best for rookies from the rail? Delaware Park has seen 16.5% winners in this situation, best nationally. Also see which jockeys negotiate it best (hint: Carol Cedeno and Emisael Jaramillo have excelled).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Parx Racing - Race #1
Parx Racing - Race #4
Picks Notes #3 Kolohe Prince He doesn't have a ton of excuses at this point, but there is almost no pace signed on in here, and he has occasionally shown some ability to sit near the top. Drop might do the trick. #5 Niangua This guy comes right back at the same level while testing the locals for the first time after the Churchill run, and he's probably quick enough to find a spot near the front. #6 Field Officer He will be making his 36th career start, so he's not bringing any upside to the table, but he might land a decent tracking trip. Underneath. Race Summary Kolohe Prince looks like one of the obvious two in here, and the price here might be slightly better than the offering on the Churchill invader Niangua.
Parx Racing - Race #9
Picks Notes #5 Liam's Lady The only turf try wasn't much, but it came with better back in June, and she's worth a look at this kind of level with the blinkers on while getting Pennington up -- an ace in these types of races. #7 Superhelpful Some of her best tries have come on the grass, so there's reason to think she might be able to hold form after bouncing back in a big way off the claim last time out. Tough. #9 Cape Elizabeth She has never been in this easy, but her form isn't all that exciting, and she's probably not going to offer a playable kind of number here. Race Summary Liam's Lady didn't pick up on the turf in June, but there just isn't anything to write home about in here, so anything like the 6/1 ML price would be very appealing with a top pilot in this kind of race.
Picks Notes #7 Charity Stripe Demand a fair price here, because she has been in a bit deep at this level in the past. That said, she's protected off the claim and gets what might be a favorable race shape to finish into. Along late at a mid-range price? #4 Le Petite Papillon She has turned into a pretty serious early burner since adding blinkers for the new barn, and I don't have any knocks on form, but there are a couple of other 44-and-change types lined up that might leave her vulnerable late. #1 Bucks Some She's quick enough to be in the mix early, but she might benefit most from trying to settle in the pocket just a touch while the more serious early players go at it. Race Summary Charity Stripe needs a decent setup today, but her ceiling is high enough to land this if she gets a fair run of things. Something like 5/1 would seem fair.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Pocono Downs - Race #2
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #1 BARDMIRY Tracked odds on fave, got by late to finish second. #5 SOUTH WIND XENA Was traveling comfortably on clear lead but came up short. #2 CANDY PAINT First start locally for 20-percent barn, Buter's choice on a double call. Race Summary Bardmiry tracked 1-to-5 favorite South Wind Xena in the pocket and got by late after the winner ranged up 3-wide for the stretch drive. She projects a similar trip and betting value should remain. Play 1-2, 1-5 and 1-8 exactas.
- Race #0
Picks Notes #2 HADIKNOWNBETTER Post makes all the difference, goes well in here. #8 R PRECIOUS PEARL Plagued by bad posts, ran best race with Macdonald in bike. #4 GQ MAGIC Three-race in-the-momey streak ended from post 8. Race Summary Hadiknownbetter showed good speed off the gate from post 10, saved ground in fifth and trotted evenly in the stretch. Expect a good effort from the 3yo filly with a favorable post switch. Play a 2-ALL exacta.
Picks Notes #8 STATE OF PLAY Seeks repeat off Moreau claim against similar rivals. #10 JAYDEN PLACE Good form, drops to proper level, starting spot the drawback. #6 PORTRSTOWNCHRIS IR 'Loaded' while looking for stretch room, rallied widest. Race Summary State Of Play found a seat in fifth, led the outer flow as the pace slowed on the backside and inched clear to win. Give him the repeat nod off the Moreau claim in a wide open race. Play a 6-8-10 exacta box.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #1
Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes #4 Ego Was a winner the last time he was on dirt and has won on turf since then; is back to the main track and seeks his third win in sixth start off the claim by Holthus; one to hold off. #1 Candy Store Was an easy winner at Prairie Meadows last out as he embraced the chance to set slow fractions; he's taken two of his last three and is running well for Reavis. #3 Gambler's Fallacy Just missed last time in his first over the strip and has good performances at several different tracks; just likes to run and could make them notice late. Race Summary Ego is in good dirt form and has the class to prevail over a solid group of horses; can make a solid late run.
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Game Boy Benny Ran well in Florida early in the year and has shown signs off getting back to good form; comes in off a third here and can be a pace factor. #3 Naughty Alfred Won three straight and them settled for second last time; has taken 7 of 10 locally. #1 Royal Commission Ran on for second last out in his first good effort since April; can get a good trip on or near the end and can benefit from the inside post. Race Summary Game Boy Benny is headed back to top form and his Florida races would make him very tough here.
Picks Notes #2 Rare Form Took a race clunker last time out as he opened up four lengths early and had nothing left late; can be a big player at this level. #4 Dilettante Goes for his third straight win and has a sparkling 7 of 18 record here; can mix it up with these. #6 Thatswhatithought Ran of to an easy score vs. state-breds last time and usually runs well on the front end locally. Race Summary Rare Form turns back in distance, which should help his cause; can take to them when called upon and should show significant improvement here.
Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Chicago Cubs w/Davies +145 over Colorado
Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: PITTSBURGH/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 9 runs
Totals4U
Tuesday's Free Selection: Seattle Mariners/Tampa Bay Rays over 8 1/2
#1 Sports
Tuesday's Free Play: Chicago White Sox - 200
Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Houser -210 over Pittsburgh
Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Tuesday : Take ATLANTA/ST LOUIS UNDER the total of 8½ runs
Hawkeye Sports
Tuesday's Free Pick: San Francisco Giants - 155
Huddle Up Sports
Tuesday Free Play
Toronto Ryu -195
Arthur Ralph
FreePlay TUES: Cinci Reds w/ Mahle-135
Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 8/3 MLB CLEVELAND +185
Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Tuesday: CLEVELAND/TORONTO UNDER the total of 8½ runs
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Tuesday: Milwaukee Brewers - 225
John Anthony Sports
Your John Anthony Free Selection for Tuesday:
Sea/TB OVER 8½ runs
Tony Sacco
Tony Sacco's Free Play for Tuesday:
SF/Az OVER 9½ runs
Hollywood Anthony
Your Free Play from Hollywood
MLB Take Chicago Wsox w/Cease -185
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