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Race of the Week: Queen's Plate at Woodbine | Sunday, Aug. 22
August 19, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$1 MILLION QUEEN'S PLATE AT WOODBINE
The Lead:
Canada's most historic race, the 162nd running of the $1 million Queen's Plate, highlights the summer at Woodbine and Sunday's 13-race card that includes the Grade 1 Highlander Stakes, the Grade 2 Dance Smartly and the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen. The mile and one-quarter Queen's Plate matches 3-year-olds foaled in Canada and will go as Race 10 (post time 5:42 pm ET).
Horseplayers tackling the Woodbine card on Sunday will be treated to a pair of pick four incentives from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Take down a pick four bet on the program and you'll split a $2,000 bonus with other winners on the two wagering platforms.
Field Depth:
Stakes winners in the 13-runner lineup include the filly MUNNYFOR RO as well as AVOMAN. KEEP GRINDING and HADDASSAH are Grade 3-placed. HC HOLIDAY is stakes-placed. SAFE CONDUCT has cashed minor checks in graded stakes in the US and has held the strongest company lines.
Pace:
HADDASSAH and DERZKILL both set the pace in the local preps, the Grade 3 Marine and the Plate Trial, respectively. Both were slow-paced races. TAKE A CHANCE stretched out last time and went wire-to-wire and certainly could add fuel to the early fire, perhaps being quickest of all. The pace looks moderate with no real decided advantages.
Our Eyes:
Fillies have a strong history in the Queen's Plate, winning 4 editions just since 2011. Woodbine Oaks heroine MUNNYFOR RO looks to pad her sophomore stats with a sweep of her homeland's big races. The Munnings filly (out of a Distorted Humor mare) has been outrunning the distance assumptions in her pedigree, winning 9-furlong races in the maiden ranks at Keeneland as well as the Woodbine Oaks most recently. Her last was her best from a difficult post 10, and she's better-drawn here while getting a 5-pound allowance in the weights.
Plate Trial winner AVOMAN ground out the victory in a cat-and-mouse prep. The 4-horse field had a waltzing pace (1:15-4/5 for 6 furlongs) and then became a dash for the cash in the lane. He quickened nicely for a 101 BRIS late pace figure to score by three-quarters of a length. But this is a pedigree made for far shorter trips, and the jog-and-sprint nature of the Plate Trial may be a false signal that he'll continue to handle more distance, especially if the pace picks up at all as it should. He seems an underlay price looming.
Phil Serpe brings SAFE CONDUCT north of the border for the first time. The Saratoga-based son of Bodemeister has beaten only 1 rival each in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge and Grade 1 Belmont Derby. But this obvious class drop to restricted, Canadian-foaled competition puts him right in the mix, as do the speed numbers. US champion jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount as he's in town to ride Etoile in the Dance Smartlly for Chad Brown and rising turf sprint star Caravel in the Highlander for Graham Motion. The presence of Ortiz likely will create an underlay among the simulcast wagering market.
KEEP GRINDING and HADDASSAH exit a 2-3 finish in the open-company Grade 3 Marine on July 11. The additional distance based on running style and pedigree both give the re-match lean to KEEP GRINDING, who was 2 lengths the superior of the pair even over just 1-1/16 miles last out. KEEP GRINDING posted a solid 95 BRIS late pace figure in that one, and offered a 97 two starts prior to that. Both numbers put him on the cusp of the better finishers in the Queen's Plate. He's the lukewarm 4-1 morning line favorite, but picks up 8 pounds off the Marine.
Newcomers to the stakes scene include the former Peter Eurton, Santa Anita-based HARLAN ESTATE (now trained by Kevin Attard). The Kantharos colt won a waltz-then-sprint open allowance at 9 furlongs last time in a nose decision over DANCE SOME MO. The type of race shape and finish mirrors what was mentioned with AVOMAN and may not play to the longer trip. But both of these runners have a deep foundation of 2-turn races and have raced exclusively in open company. This looks to be a rather key steppingstone allowance to this year's Queen's Plate.
RIPTIDE ROCK was a fast sprint winner last out, but has routed in the past and has pedigree for more. He, too, has never dropped into the restricted ranks in terms of class.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
Nothing looks too certain here, but the weight break and Woodbine Oaks score by MUNNYFOR RO are trustworthy.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HARLAN ESTATE at 10-1 morning line and DANCE SOME MO at 12-1 both capture my attention.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's work our price players on top. $15 exacta part-wheel DANCE SOME MO and HARLAN ESTATE with HARLAN ESTATE, DANCE FOR MO, MUNNYFOR RO, KEEP GRINDING ($90). $5 daily doubles DANCE SOME MO and HARLAN ESTATE to Caravel in the Race 11 Highlander Stakes.
Bolte Tops FITS Players in Week 5 Competition
August 19, 2021 | By Johnny D
Howard Bolte proved best in Fun in the Sun Week 5 competition. He posted total earnings of $346, the third-highest weekly mark behind third week winner Michael O’Grady’s $389 and opening-week winner Ellis Starr’s $392. Heading into Saturday’s action, the average winning weekly score was $346.50 and Bolte did his best to hit that mark. Bolte earns a FITS Final Table seat and $2,268 in prize money.
John Vanniel managed second at $307.50, just $1.50 in front of third-place finisher Russell Denton at $306. They both earn Final Table seats and $945 and $567 in prize money, respectively. Frank Foss ($302) and George Ekaitis ($280) round out the top five finishers and week 5 Final Table earners.
Fun in the Sun play resumes Saturday, the penultimate week’s competition for 10 remaining Final Table seats. So far, 22 individuals have tabbed 25 entries in the main event where the prize pool will top $20,000, including $10,000 in Xpressbet seed money. Three players have reached the maximum of 2 entries per account holder and they are: Ellis Star, David Jaffe and Steven Jones.
Fun in the Sun is open to account holders only and requires a $25 weekly registration fee. Players are asked to make a single, ‘live’ $10 Win wager on one horse in each of 10 competition races—the last five races at Saratoga and the first five at Del Mar. The top 5 players each week earn seats at the Final Table on Saturday, Sept. 4. The leading 3 players weekly earn additional cash prizes. And, because competition wagers are ‘live,’ players keep what they win!
For players wondering about earnings targets to garner respective positions, we’ve done a little math. As noted earlier, with five out of seven weeks in the books, top spot finishers have averaged $346.60; top 3 players $306 and fifth-place finishers $280.
So far, Xpressbet has returned $21,542.52 to players in prize money with average weekly prizes of $4,308.60. Fun in the Sun has zero takeout, skim or rake and all registration fees are returned to players in the form of prizes with 70% going to weekly payoffs and 30% destined for the Final Table pot, which has a $10,000 Xpressbet infusion.
Saturday’s Saratoga competition race action returned a trio of double-digit payoffs with High Oak ($22.40) taking the Saratoga Special, Got Stormy ($27) upsetting the FourstarDave and Dr. Duke ($17.80) paying a house call in the finale. Earlier results produced Restored Order $7.70 in the seventh and Speaker’s Corner ($9.10) in the eighth.
Del Mar competition racing produced a pair of double-digit payoffs with Jasikan ($11.20) in the second and Quiet Secretary ($13.20) in the fourth. Diva’s Final ($7.40) launched proceedings in the first race, followed by Sweet Soulmate ($9.60) in the third and Rock the Belles ($8.20) in the fifth.
This weekend, racing on both coasts is expected to be top notch with the Gr. 1 Alabama card at Saratoga and Gr. 1 Pacific Classic bonanza Saturday at Del Mar. Just two opportunities remain for you to join the Final Table for a shot at an anticipated $20,000 pot. Don’t miss out.
Jeremy Plonk: Pacific Classic Post Draw Reaction | Sat., Aug. 21
August 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Grade 1 $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar attracted nine entries at this evening’s post position draw ceremony. Grade 2 San Diego Handicap local Prep winner Express Train will start from post 5 as the lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite.
Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app or Xpressbet.com for the Pacific Classic can enjoy up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets if your top pick finishes second or third. See Xpressbet.com/promos throughout the week for more offers and details. Note a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 wager is set for Saturday.
Express Train loves Del Mar, capturing 3 of 4 local starts. John Shirreffs trains the son of Union Rags, who earlier this year was runner-up in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Express Train does his best running near the engine, which figures to be competitive for this mile and one-quarter journey with speed to his inside (Tizamagician) and outside (Magic On Tap).
Dr Post won the Westchester and Monmouth Cup this year on the east coast and was runner-up in last year’s Belmont Stakes. St. Elias Stable and Todd Pletcher shipped Vino Rosso west to win the 2019 Gold Cup at Santa Anita before a return to California later that you to capture the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With Del Mar the host site for this year’s Breeders’ Cup, they’ll try to west coast double-swing again.
Royal Ship, hero of the Grade 2 Californian in in April, and Tizamagician, cutting back in distance from his Del Mar victory in the Grade 3 Cougar II, compete as an uncoupled entry for Richard Mandella. The Hall of Fame trainer has 4 Pacific Classic titles to his credit, including the legendary filly Beholder in 2015 and the all-time Del Mar upset of Cigar’s 16-race winning streak with Dare and Go in 1996.
Magic On Tap, who stumbled at the start of the San Diego, figures to be more forwardly placed with a clean start. He leaves from post 6, just outside Express Train and could apply pressure after winning the Triple Bend sprinting at Santa Anita this spring. Magic On Tap trainer Bob Baffert has won the Pacific Classic 6 times, tied with Bobby Frankel for the race’s all-time lead.
Independence Hall adds blinkers for the 31st edition of the Pacific Classic.
For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Pacific Classic, check back at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com on Thursday evening for Jeff Siegel’s handicapping video. Also, see Eddie Olcyzk’s Saturday spot plays at both sites.
Del Mar // Race 10 // Grade 1 Pacific Classic // 1-1/4 miles
1. Tripoli (Tiago Pereira) 5-1
2. Tizamagician (Flavien Prat) 5-1
3. Dr Post (Joel Rosario) 4-1
4. Royal Ship (Mike Smith) 7-2
5. Express Train (Juan Hernandez) 3-1
6. Magic On Tap (Abel Cedillo) 20-1
7. Independence Hall (Florent Geroux) 5-1
8. Sheriff Brown (Edwin Maldonado) 30-1
9. Cupid’s Claws (Umberto Rispoli) 15-1
Al Cimaglia: Pocono Downs Late Pick 4 Analysis
August 21, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
It is Sun Stakes Saturday at Pocono Downs featuring star-studded fields of top trotters and pacers with more than $2,000,000 in purses over the 14-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. That sequence will include two $300,000 stakes, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11
1-Lawless Shadow (4-1)-Mohawk invader cashes checks versus tough foes on a regular basis and makes a rare appearance on a smaller oval. But make no mistake, a sub-150 mile shouldn't be an issue and has the gate speed to be in play from the start.
2-Southwind Gendry (5-1)-Burke 3-year-old tries Lasix for the 2nd time and is usually in the hunt at the wire. Gingras can be quick off the gate and looks like a player in a competitive affair.
4-Perfect Sting (5/2)-This is a fine colt who has hit the board in all 7 starts this year recording 3 wins and 3 second place finishes. Has big gate speed but doesn't need to have the lead from the start to win.
5-American Courage (10-1)-This is a price shot that is worth a swing and draws the choice post. Does its best work on smaller ovals and can dance with this group. Kakaley knows well and with a sharp steer could post an upset, but a good start is key.
7-Rockyroad Hanover (3-1)-This post draw makes things more difficult for Dunn but there should be a very lively opening half posted. Rocky can finish fastest of all with a live cover flow and could go off at a solid price.
Race 12
1-Captain Corey (2-1) & 1a-Delayed Hanover (2-1)-Svanstedt entry draws post 2 and 3 respectively. Dunn will steer #1a and may look to get an up-close seat and come off the pace. Ake drives Captain Corey and if the Hambo victory didn't take too much out of this colt it could be another gate to wire score.
6-Johan Palema (3-1)-Here is the other Svanstedt pupil that looked to be the Hambo program favorite before a dismal 7th place finish in the Elimination. According to reports there isn't any physical issues and has been training well. Gingras will likely blast out and could have the best chance of posting an upset with a return to top form.
Race 13
5-No Lou Zing (5/2)-It has been a bumpy 4-year-old season for this Takter trainee. After banking over $520,000 last year this will be only the 7th start this season and has booked just one win. That should change here, draws well and drops into a soft spot. If all systems are dialed on high Dunn should get the top and make every call a winning one.
Race 14
1-Backstreet Shadow (3-1)-Comes off a big try from the 2nd tier in the Dan Patch and has been in the hunt in the last 4 races but hasn't sealed the deal. Has raced well on smaller ovals and has hit the board in all 4 starts here with 2 wins. Tetrick could get the pocket behind #2.
2-Nicholas Beach (5/2)-Was used hard from the 8 hole in the Sam McKee to get the top and just missed. Shouldn't have much trouble getting on the engine here. Looks like a main player and has won 5 of 6 at PcD.
6-Ruthless Hanover (5-1)-Has been cashing some checks at M1 chasing tough customers and gets a different set of hands in Callahan today. Has done good work at this track and could pop at a price if the speed falters.
8-Allywag Hanover (4-1)-Has been in sharp form in the last 3 at the Big M and won his only start at PcD. My guess is TMac will get a decent seat, pull and grinded it out. This 4-year-old can take air, so could roll by down the lane if they battle up top.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,2,4,5,7/1,6/5/1,2,6,8
Total Bet=$20
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Saturday, August 21, 2021
August 21, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mirasol; 5-Infinite Empire; 6-Benedict Canyon
Forecast: The Saturday opener looks like a graded stakes race for juvenile fillies disguised as a maiden race. Six of the seven entrants are first-time starters with big time pedigrees and at least one fast work on their resume and the one that already has raced – the B. Baffert-trained Mirasol – displayed plenty of ability in her debut last month. From what we’ve seen on video, Benedict Canyon may have the most natural early speed in the field, and with a steady, healthy work tab that dates back until at least mid-May she should be more than fit for a top effort first time out. She worked in company with Mirasol seven days ago and there was little between them, so they’re hard to separate. Mirasol gets off the rail and should be fitter and tighter with that effort behind her. She could wind up being Arrogate’s first winner, which would be nice for those selling yearlings by the former Horse of the Year at Keeneland next month. Infinite Empire is a stone runner as well, though she strikes us as a filly that might be better served with distance. Based on how she’s been training, the daughter of Empire Maker likely will settle early and then blast home, and if she gets up, great, if not, she can stretch out next time.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Speed Pass; 4-P R Radio Star; 7-Major Cabbie
Forecast: This is one of the tougher $25,000 claiming sprints you’ll see on this circuit, with a number of ex-classers dropping down trying to a steal a purse. Major Cabbie may be rounding back to form after finishing a willing runner-up in a slightly stronger mid-grade claiming sprint last month, and with F. Prat riding him back and with an extra half-furlong to work with the once-promising 5-year-oild appears well-spotted to regain his best form. A prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the son of Into Mischief should draft into a good second flight position outside and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Speed Pass shows up a seller for the first time after continuing to burn money while being protected in allowance races. He’s failed to deliver the goods the last four times he’s gone favored so the connections clearly are ready to cull him from the stable and move on to something fresher. On pure numbers the B. Baffert-trained gelding is a solid fit at this level and should find himself on or near the lead; however, he’s never been one to trust. Freshened since mid-June and with a sharp gate work of 59 4/5 nine days ago, he’s certainly capable of winning if he feels like it. P R Radio Star returns from the Midwest seeking his first win of the year while dropping to his claim level for the first time since being haltered a year ago June. A two-time winner over the Del Mar main track, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding likes to settle early and then produce a late run, so this extended sprint trip should be a perfect complement to his style. “Win rider” J. J. Hernandez returns, and the local works for his first start in two months should have fit ready for a major effort.,
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ottawa Fire; 2-One Fast Bro; 4-Memo Daddy; 5-Constitutionalaffair
Forecast: Here’s a contention-filled middle distance turf event for first-level allowance older horses that could be won by any one of four or more depending which horse gets the best trip. In a similar event last month, Memo Daddy ran into severe traffic trouble on the turn, then tried to rally inside when clear in the final furlong but ran into a roadblock, was shut off, and lost all chance. With the switch to top grass rider U. Rispoli, the Chilean-bred horse can beat this field with a forwardly placed journey and clear sailing through the lane and is worth a gamble at the price. One Fast Bro left his previous form behind with a visually pleasing win at this level vs. state-bred foes last month while earning a career-top number that makes him tough right back vs. open company. Both of his career wins have been accomplished over the Del Mar turf course, so he’s right where he wants to be. Constitutionalaffair is the likely pace setter in a pace less race and he’s more than good enough to take advantage of that type of trip if not pressured early. Freshened since mid-June but showing a strong, healthy series of recent workouts to have him plenty fit, the M. Glatt-trained gelding has finished first or second in six of eight starts while earning speed figures that fit very well at this level. Ottawa Fire, a closing sixth (beaten three lengths) without mishap in the same race Memo Daddy exits, will appreciate today’s extra half-furlong in his second start since being imported from Ireland and seems quite likely to improve from his good rail post, with the addition of blinkers, and with F. Prat staying aboard. The four-year-old gelding was a beaten choice in that race; he should be a more attractive gamble today.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rhetoric; 2-Forbidden Kingdom; 4-Kamui; 6-Portsmouth
Forecast: Three of the seven entrants in this maiden sprint for juveniles come from the B. Baffert barn, and all three appear to have plenty of potential. From what we can decipher on video, Kamui has a ton of early zip and is the one to beat. A $400,000 Keeneland weanling purchase, the son of Quality Road has the quick-action of an early winner and should appreciate this abbreviated five and one-half furlong trip. With J. Rosario taking the mount, he’s certain to attract plenty of play. Rhetoric has done some excellent work in the a.m. as well and draws F. Prat. He’ll need to come out running from the rail. Portsmouth may be the least preferred of the Baffert trio but even he can run enough to warrant some consideration. As for the others, the R. Mandella-trained Forbidden Kingdom exudes talent in the a. m. and if he breaks with his company the son of American Pharoah should have a big say in the matter.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Prince Abama; 9-Subconscious; 12-Barbwire
Forecast: Prince Abama finished fourth of 19 in is only start in Ireland in May and makes his U.S. debut as a first-time gelding for a barn that excels with these European imports. He’s worked well locally on dirt and should go even better on the lawn, so in a wide open two-turn maiden race for older horses let’s try the fresh face. Subconscious, second in a similar affair last month, also shows the first-time gelding angle and has a right to improve, though in each of his last two races the son of Tapit has gotten clear early as the controlling speed but simply hasn’t been able to hang on. He’s been freshened since mid-June and is working quite well for R. Mandella, so a forward move is probable. Barbwire likely will settle into a stalking potion and have dead aim and every chance when the pressure is turned on. F. Prat stays aboard for R. Baltas, and with two noteworthy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs since raced the son of Uncle Mo is yet another that should have plenty of improvement in him.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Forest Caraway; 7-Private Mission
Forecast: Private Mission picked up where she left off after returning from a seven month layoff to win a fast first-level allowance sprint at Santa Anita with a strong, career-top speed figure. She tackles tougher today in the Torrey Pines S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies while stretching out for the first time, but the daughter of Into Mischief has the pedigree to stay a mile and the versatility to stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates. She’s drawn comfortably outside so F. Prat can pick his spot and play it by ear. Forest Caraway is less certain than our top pick to stretch out successfully but she’s plenty fast and most likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. If the daughter of Bodemeister is ever going to win going long, it's most likely to be in her first try, and if she’s not pressured early the P. Miller-trained filly could take the field a long way. Her sprint numbers aren’t as fast as Private Mission’s, but they’re close. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play and then press with extra tickets keying Private Mission on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Smooth Like Strait; 6-Mo Forza
Forecast: The defending Del Mar Mile-G2 winner Mo Forza has been away since October of last year but he won this same race last year off an extended layoff, so we know he can fire a huge shot fresh. We’re going to handicap under the assumption that the P. Miller-trained horse is fit and ready following a series of strong workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. A winner of six of 12 career starts including the Hollywood Derby-G1 over the local lawn two years ago, the high-class miler retains F. Prat, who knows him well and rides him back. For protection, we’ll also include Smooth Like Strait, a prototype turf miler who’ll likely settle into a stalking position just off Neptune’s Storm. He’ll have every chance to put that one way when ready but then will have to deal with the late blast from Mo Forza.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dream Shake; 6-Scary Fast Smile; 7-Positivity
Forecast: Scary Fast Smile flunked his route test so he’s back sprinting where he belongs and with a repeat of his highly-rated sprint win two races back the M. Glatt-trained gelding can get back on track. At this extended sprint distance he should inherit the role as the controlling speed and given that trip he may never look back. Positivity blitzed a $50,000 claiming field over this track and distance last month and today goes first off the claim for D. O’Neill. A winner of two races from three starts over the Del Mar main track, the son of Paynter projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip outside and therefore should be quite dangerous despite the class hike. Dream Shake removes blinkers for the first time after a pair of disappointing efforts, albeit against tougher company. At this level, the P. Eurton-trained colt should fit very nicely; we just have to wonder if he’s quite the same colt as he was during the spring.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Closing Remarks; 3-Going Global; 7-Fluiffy Socks
Forecast: Going Global was locked and loaded entering the far turn but had no place to until straightening for home and by that time she had been robbed of her momentum and, in our opinion, lost her best chance. Others may disagree. We know she can handle today’s nine furlong distance, so with clear sailing and room to rally when the time is right the P. D’Amato-trained filly should be capable of making amends for her defeat in the San Clemente S.-G2 at 40 cents on the dollar. Closing Remarks displayed excellent form when competing with (but not defeating) Going Global in two prior outings but the daughter of Vronsky continues to impress in the morning and should snap back to top form with the return to turf after failing to show her best when third in a state-bred dirt sprint last time out. From the rail, she should be forwardly placed while saving ground and remain a strong threat every step of the way. Fluffy Socks, a stakes winner last year over this course, returns for C. Brown after finishing a willing runner-up in the Lake George S.-G3 at Saratoga last month. Under J. Rosario, she’ll be rolling late.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Tizamagician; 4-Royal Ship; 5-Express Train
Forecast: Royal Ship may have been victimized when attempting to rally inside along the deeper lanes and appeared to lose his punch in the closing stages when third in the San Diego H.-G2 in an important prep for this race last month. He should be forwardly placed throughout over a track that has been biased free of late, and after missing by a head in the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 two runs back the R. Mandella-trained gelding appears ready to regain his winning form in this year’s renewal of the Pacific Classic.-G1. Tizamagician may in inherit the role as the controlling speed from his inside draw and if not respected could take this field a very long way. The son of Tiznow continues to improve with maturity and with another forward move has a legitimate chance at the big prize. Express Train is a Del Mar specialist and has never been sharper. A versatile type that can win pressing the pace or as a deep closer, the son of Union Rags looks ready for a major effort and on pure form deserves to be favored.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-United: 8-Arklow
Forecast: Arklow appeared to be making a winning move midway on the far turn of the United Nations S.-G1 at Monmouth Park but clipped heels, stumbled badly, and lost all chance. It was remarkable that he finished as close as he did (sixth, beaten less than six lengths). Winner of the Hollywood Turf Cup-G1 in his only prior race over the Del Mar turf course last November, the veteran gelding arrives in peak form at age seven and with good racing luck appears capable of producing a winning late bid. United returned to winning form in the Eddie Read S.-G2 here last month after a hugely disappointing run (last of four) in the Charles Whittingham S.-G2 at Santa Anita. If he brings his “A” game today, the veteran high class Giant’s Causeway gelding will be hard to beat. We’re expecting the winner will be one of these two, so we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Arklow.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Saturday, August 21, 2021
August 21, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 1a-Major General; 6-Triple Elvis
Forecast: Major General breezed well enough to make the Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list earlier this month, and while he may not be one of T. Pletcher’s top juveniles he should be good enough to be competitive first time out against this group. This looks like a decent band of juveniles but maybe without a world beater. Triple Elvis, a $700,000 yearling by Into Mischief, looks like a win early type for C. Brown and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Unfortunately, there are several in here that we’ve haven’t seen on video, so we won’t get too aggressive other than to include the two listed above in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Zainalarab; 3-Primacy; 5-Dial Me Up
Forecast: We see three of the five entrants as major players in this first-level allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares, so we’ll triple the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Dial Me Up is clearly the quickest in the field, though this seven furlong trip might be stretching her limit and she shows a brief work tab for her first start since March. Zainalarab isn’t particularly fast on numbers, but she’s only had two starts and has plenty of room for development. A solid runner-up when last seen at Churchill Downs in late April, the War Front filly is listed at 7/5 on the morning line and probably won’t offer any value at that price, though she certainly could win. Primacy*
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: X
Use: 1-Robin Sparkles; 2-Lead Guitar
Forecast: We’ll handicap this race under the assumption that the race will remain on grass. Robin Sparkles should easily make the running and probably will keep on going, though at even money on the morning line here’s not much we can do with her. The main challenger is Lead Guitar, who was declared a non-starter in the Royal North S.-G2 after being eliminated at the break but if nothing else still got the benefit of an outing in her first start since November and should be fitter and tighter today. The G. Weaver-trained mare can turn it on late, loves the Saratoga turf course and will have dead aim on ‘Sparkles from the head of the lane to the wire. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tellaperfecttale; 7-Know It All Red
Forecast: Tellaperfecttale has little to beat in this state-bred maiden $25,000 sprint for fillies and mares and this drop in class coupled with numbers that are good enough to win makes her a fairly solid choice. Although she’s ben away since April and a layoff like this always is a concern, the barn has pretty good stats with this angle, so we’ll assume that she’ll return as well as she left. Know It All Red has gradually rising numbers and finished second at this level in her last two outings so she’s the one to fear most. The daughter of Dialed In is a nine-race maiden from a low percentage outfit but against this group any sign of life makes one a contender.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Ghost Giant; 8-Good Old Boy
Forecast: We’ll handicap this race under the assumption that it remains on the turf. We’ll pass if it’s switched to the main track. Ghost Giant has been extremely popular at the claim box of late, going from K. Rubley to G. Weaver to M. Kantarmaci to R. Abras, with the latter owning a spectacular record with the first-off-the-claim angle (34% with a massive ROI). The veteran son of Frost Giant makes his first start since early July, has a prior win over the Saratoga lawn, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and is solid and consistent in the speed figure department. He’ll likely draft into the second flight and then have his best chance from there. Good Old Boy, a $45,000 claim by R. Diodoro when finishing fourth in the same race Ghost Giant exits, goes for a barn that also has powerful stats with next-out claims and projects to enjoy the same type of trip as his main rival. With a local win on his resume and the switch to the barn’s “go to” rider D. Cohen, this son of Freud is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Silky Blue; 8-Kokopelli
Forecast: Here’s another race that we’ll pass if it taken off the turf. Kokopelli was impressive breaking her maiden two runs back last fall at The Big A, returned in May to record a sharp first-level allowance win at Belmont Park, but then regressed when a no-excuse third as the odds-on favorite at this level in her most recent outing. The C. Clement-trained filly likes to settle early and blast home and after a brief freshening could easily return to top form. Silky Blue has failed the last three times she’s gone favored so the daughter of Hard Spun may not be totally trustworthy, but against this group she should again be a major player. Look for regular pilot M. Franco to have her in an ideal stalking position that will give her every chance when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the preference on top to Kokopelli.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-My Prankster; 9-Cogburn
Forecast: Cogburn smoked a quarter mile in :20 3/5 at the OBS April sale and then brought $150,000 through the ring. As fast as that breeze was, the son of Not This Time has looked even more impressive in his slower, easier moves, so when the dust settles this could turn out to be a very good colt for S. Asmussen. Drawn comfortably outside, he appears quick enough to get over and establish the running or he could settle in the stalking position and then accelerate when called upon. At 3-1 on the morning line we like him in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. My Prankster has done some good work himself in the a.m. and in fact made the Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list following a sharp gate work for T. Pletcher two weeks ago. The son of Into Mischief should be included as a backup or a saver just in case our top pick for whatever reason performs below expectations.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Golani Brigade; 4-Identify Politics; 5-Charlie Five O
Forecast: Golani Brigade shows up in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer for the first time and has numbers that make him the one to beat at this level. A perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga main track, the lightly-raced 5-year-old gelding has been started and stopped on a number of times and clearly has a condition question, but if he shows up with anything close to his best stuff in his first outing since May the C. Brown-trained gelding should be hard to beat. The “other” C. Brown in the field, Identity Politics,is fast on figures and also should thoroughly enjoy this softer assignment. He’s another Klaravich Stable runner being culled from the roster after being Grade-1 placed earlier in his career. The son of Into Mischief lacks tactical speed, but at this extended sprint distance against this level of competition he should make his presence felt late. Charlie Five O blew out a soft restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field when last seen at Belmont Park in May while earning a career top number. He’s being ambitiously placed today in his first off the claim for L. Rice, so we’ll assume he’s doing well and probably better than his 15-1 morning line might indicate. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2=Technical Analysis; 4-Runaway Rumour
Forecast: Technical Analysis sprung a 7-1 surprise to win the Lake George S.-G3 here last month but will be a considerably shorter price to win right back in this year’s edition of the Lake Placid S.-2 for 3-year-old fillies. She earned by far a career top speed figure in the process and there’s no reason to think she won’t continue to improve. The C. Brown-trained Irish-bred filly has good tactical speed and in a race without pace projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Runaway Rumour was a highly respectable fourth (beaten less than three lengths) in the Lake George and did so despite being fanned wide into the stretch while trying to rally into the teeth of soft splits. Under the circumstances, it was excellent effort for the daughter of Flintshire, who should continue to improve as well. Because she’ll be a much better price, we’ll take a shot and put the J. Abreu-trained filly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Malathaat
Forecast: Malathaat was beaten in a photo at 30 cents on the dollar in the C.C.A. Oaks here last month but she under heavy pressure through fast splits every step of the way and under the circumstances actually ran quite well when upset by Maracuja. We’re expecting the daughter of Curlin to turn the tables today. Drawn comfortably outside the other speed, she’ll be able to stalk, pounce, and go this time and in the process regain the form that saw her win her first five career starts, including the Kentucky Oaks-G1 during the spring. At even money on the morning line and likely to go lower she’ll be unplayable in the win pool, but we can use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:45 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gauff; 4-Split Then Double; 9-So Enchanting
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. We’ll pass if the race is moved to the main track. Split Then Double has earned rising speed figures in each of her four career starts, hitting the board in her last three, so the English-bred filly appears ready to graduate in this moderate maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. She doesn’t have a great turn of foot but should find herself in a comfortable stalking position and have her chance from there. So Enchanting, in the frame in all four starts but slower on numbers than our top pick, missed by a neck while having every chance over this course and distance last month. With only slight improvement, she’ll be right there again. Gauff ships in from Ellis Park where she recorded some decent drills, including a bullet half mile gate move (:47 4/5) 11 days ago. The Irish-bred filly in the B. Cox barn is bred for grass top and bottom and won’t have to be a champion to act with this group. From her good rail post, she’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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AI Picks: Pimlico Stakes | Saturday, August 21, 2021
August 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Maryland Pride/Maryland Strong day at Pimlico offers a quartet of stakes for the state-bred performers. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
We’ve included the track’s official morning line odds for each runner.
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Pimlico // Race 6 // 3:25 pm ET // Miss Disco Stakes // 6 furlongs
#3 Street Lute (1-1) // 34%W
#2 Malibu Beauty (7-5) // 24%W
#4 Hitch a Ride (8-1) // 19%W
#5 Response Time (15-1) // 15%W
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Pimlico // Race 7 // 3:58 pm ET // All Brandy Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
#6 Artful Splatter (6-1) // 18%W
#2 Forever Dreaming (10-1) // 17%W
#10 Judi Blue Eyes (3-1) // 14%W
#1 Good Life Cider (8-1) // 12%W
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Pimlico // Race 8 // 4:31 pm ET // Star De Naskra Stakes // 6 furlongs
#4 Jaxon Traveler (6-5) // 34%W
#2 Cry No More (9-2) // 24%W
#5 Exculpatory (3-1) // 19%W
#1 Alwaysinahurry (3-1) // 15%W
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Pimlico // Race 9 // 5:04 pm ET // Find Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
#5 Closer Look (10-1) // 18%W
#10 Cannon’s Roar (5-2) // 17%W
#7 Tappin Cat (9-2) // 14%W
#6 Somekindofmagician (8-1) // 12%W
JON WHITE: Pacific Classic Selections and Analysis
August 18, 2021 | By Jon White
It’s hard for me to believe that 31 years have passed since I called the official race chart for the inaugural running of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
Best Pal won the 1 1/4-mile event by one length in 1:59 4/5. The California-bred gelding not only defeated his elders that day, he broke the track record.
One of the most popular horses to ever race in California, Best Pal won the first Pacific Classic under the burgundy and gold silks of John and Betty Mabee’s Golden Eagle Farm. The Mabees bred the son of Habitony and the King Pellinore mare Ubetshedid.
Best Pal’s win in the first Pacific Classic was especially sweet for John Mabee. A founding member of the board of directors of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, Mabee served as the organization’s first president and then its chairman for close to 25 years.
John Mabee played an important role in the creation of the Pacific Classic, then won the first running of the $1 million event.
For the race chart, I wrote: “BEST PAL, outrun early while being reserved, raced wide on the backstretch, moved up to be in an easy striking position on the far turn, responded readily to steady left-handed pressure in the drive while gaining strongly, ran down TWILIGHT AGENDA to get the lead in deep stretch and was increasing his advantage in the closing yards.”
Patrick Valenzuela rode Best Pal for future Hall of Fame trainer Gary Jones.
Twilight Agenda finished second. He was followed in order by Unbridled, Festin, Farma Way, Itstallgreektome, Anshan and Stalwart Charger.
I have crafted the morning line for this year’s $1 million Pacific Classic in which nine are entered.
I had a very difficult time deciding who to make the morning-line favorite. The way I see it, either Express Train or Royal Ship probably will be sent away as the Pacific Classic betting choice. I think it really could go either way.
Express Train won Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego Handicap at odds of 5-2 on July 17. Royal Ship finished third in that race as the 8-5 favorite.
In terms of morning-line favoritism, I ultimately gave the nod to Express Train at 3-1, while pegging Royal Ship at 7-2.
I originally was going to make Express Train a 5-2 favorite and Royal Ship the second choice at 3-1. But as a consequence of Independence Hall being a surprise eleventh-hour entrant, I raised the morning-line price for both Express Train and Royal Ship a notch.
I pegged New York invader Dr Post at 4-1. Independence Hall, Tizamagician and Tripoli are each 5-1.
While I was in the process of formulating the morning line, it appeared to me that Express Train, Royal Ship, Dr Post, Independence Hall, Tizamagician and Tripoli all are quite capable of proving a tough customer in the Pacific Classic. I think Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman was spot on when he wrote that the Pacific Classic morning line “reflects the competitive nature of the race.”
Rounding out the field and attempting to pull off an upset are Cupid’s Claws (15-1), Magic On Tap (20-1) and Sheriff Brown (30-1).
Below are my Pacific Classic selections:
1. Express Train
2. Royal Ship
3. Dr Post
4. Tripoli
One the reasons that I made Express Train the morning-line favorite and why he’s also my top pick is his fine record (4-3-1-0) on Del Mar’s main track. His lone defeat on that this particular track came in his career debut when he finished second to the highly regarded Eight Rings in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race for 2-year-olds.
At that time, Eight Rings looked like a rising star for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Following his maiden triumph, Eight Rings was backed down to 1-2 favoritism in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, but he ducked in sharply early and unseated jockey Drayden Van Dyke.
Eight Rings subsequently rebounded to win the Grade I American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. But he then finished a disappointing sixth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at that same track.
After his poor performance in the 2019 BC Juvenile, Eight Rings continued his less-than-stellar form when finishing fifth and seventh in his only two 2020 starts.
In his initial 2021 start, Eight Rings lost further luster when he finished fourth as the 8-5 favorite in Santa Anita’s Grade II Triple Bend Stakes on May 29.
After the Triple Bend, it’s perfectly understandable why many people were writing off Eight Rings, as evidenced by his 16-1 odds when he ran in Del Mar’s Grade I Bing Crosby Stakes on July 31. But Eight Rings perked up to finish a sharp second in the Bing Crosby, a race he lost by just a neck to Dr. Schivel.
As for Express Train, since finishing second to Eight Rings in the aforementioned 2019 maiden race, he has not lost on Del Mar’s main track, all in two-turn races.
In his second career start, Express Train won a one-mile maiden special weight race by 14 1/4 lengths for owner CRK Stable and trainer John Shirreffs at the 2019 Del Mar summer meet. Back then, I thought Express Train might be every bit as good as Honor A.P., another promising 2-year-old owned by the CRK Stable and trained by Shirreffs. Honor A.P. won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby last year, defeating Authentic, who went on to be the 2020 Horse of the Year following victories in the Grade I Haskell Invitational, Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I BC Classic.
Express Train started only once at Del Mar last year. He won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest by two lengths on the main track at the summer meet.
As mentioned earlier, Express Train registered yet another victory on Del Mar’s main track six weeks ago when he got the job done in the San Diego. The 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Union Rags colt won the 1 1/16-mile San Diego by a half-length over Tripoli.
Royal Ship, a 5-year-old Brazilian-bred Midshipman gelding, has the look of a major player in the Pacific Classic off his last three races.
Trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, Royal Ship won Santa Anita’s Grade II Californian Stakes on April 17 by a neck over Country Grammer. Country Grammer then turned the tables in Santa Anita’s Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup. Country Grammer won the Gold Cup by a head over Royal Ship.
Royal Ship finished 4 1/4 lengths in front of Express Train in the Gold Cup. And then Express Train finished 1 1/4 lengths in front of Royal Ship in the San Diego.
Mandella has four Pacific Classic wins to his credit. The Mandella-trained Dare and Go took the 1997 renewal in an $81.20 upset when he defeated 1-10 favorite Cigar, whose winning streak was snapped that day at 16. Mandella went on to also win the Pacific Classic in 1997 with Gentlemen, 2004 with Pleasantly Perfect and 2015 with the multiple Eclipse Award-winning distaffer Beholder.
The late Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel and Baffert share the record of six Pacific Classic wins by a trainer. Baffert will break the record if Magic On Tap can find a way to topple his foes this Saturday.
Dr Post goes into the Pacific Classic off a win in the Grade III Monmouth Cup when racing with blinkers for the first time on July 17. His performance was better than the 1 1/4-length margin of victory suggests. The good doctor won going away after racing extremely wide into the lane. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt.
Independence Hall, trained by Michael McCarthy, has not appeared under silks since he finished third as the 3-5 favorite in the Californian in April. He had made two previous 2021 starts. Independence Hall finished third to Knicks Go and Jesus Team in the Grade I Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 23, then ran fourth to Idol, Express Train and Maxfield in the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap on March 6.
Something to keep in mind is all four of Independence Hall’s wins in 10 career starts have come in races around one turn. The Pacific Classic will be contested around two turns.
I believe that Tripoli should be taken very seriously in the Pacific Classic off his runner-up effort in the San Diego. Running that well in his stakes debut showed that he belongs with “the big boys” like Express Train and Royal Ship. Tripoli was right there at the end of the San Diego despite being fanned wide into the stretch.
Hronis Racing owns Tripoli. John Sadler is the trainer. This owner-trainer team won the Pacific Classic in 2018 with Accelerate and in 2019 with Higher Power.
Mandella also is represented in the Pacific Classic by Tizamagician. The 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Tiznow colt won Del Mar’s Grade III Cougar II Stakes at 1 1/2 miles by 2 1/4 lengths on July 18.
Tizamagician could have a big say in the Pacific Classic. He has finished first or second in seven of his last eight starts. A concern in the Pacific Classic is his lack of a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in his 18 career starts inasmuch as Express Train, Royal Ship, Dr Post, Independence Hall and Tripoli all have recorded a triple-digit Beyer on more than one occasion.
SECRETARIAT STAKES
Many racing fans are saddened that the Arlington Million, which this year was renamed the Mr. D. Stakes while having its purse slashed from $1 million to $600,000, evidently will never be run again.
Two Emmys, ridden by James Graham and trained by Hugh Robertson, led past every pole in last Saturday’s Mr. D. Allowed to set a snail-like pace (:26.12, :52.43, 1:16.64), Two Emmys had just enough gas left in the tank to win by a neck in a 27-1 upset when able to stave off the late charge by 2-5 favorite Domestic Spending.
With this year being said to be the final year of racing at Arlington Park, it is so sad that the Arlington Million -- the world’s first $1 million Thoroughbred race -- will be no more.
Arlington’s Secretariat Stakes for 3-year-olds, which was renamed the Bruce D. Stakes this year, also will be no more.
How in the world can Secretariat no longer have a stakes race named after him? This is just plain wrong.
I believe the folks at the New York Racing Association should address this wrong by coming up with a race named after Secretariat. And I am not talking about some minor stakes race. New York should have an IMPORTANT race named after the 1973 Triple Crown winner.
It actually makes more sense for New York rather than Arlington to have a Secretariat Stakes anyway. Secretariat made 15 of his 21 career starts at New York tracks. He raced at Arlington Park just once.
Belmont Park, of course, is where Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by a spectacular 31 lengths in what many consider to be the greatest performance by a Thoroughbred in American racing history.
Come on, NYRA. Please honor Secretariat with an important race named after him.
I have an idea. Why not rename the Belmont Derby, a Grade I race at 1 1/4 miles on the grass, either the Secretariat Stakes or Secretariat Derby? After all, Secretariat was undefeated on the grass. In his two grass starts, he won the Man o’ War Stakes at Belmont Park and the Canadian International at Woodbine. Besides, it makes a lot more sense to have a Secretariat Stakes or Secretariat Derby on the grass than a Man o’ War Stakes on the grass. That’s because Man o’ War never raced on the grass.
THE HEART OF JOHN HENRY
Due to the apparent end of the road for the Arlington Million, there was much discussion last weekend of the first running of the race in 1981 in which John Henry won by a scant nose over The Bart.
John Henry won 39 of 83 starts during his illustrious career. I wondered just how many times he had been victorious when the race had come down to a photo finish.
According to my research, John Henry was involved in 14 photo finishes in which he won or lost by a nose, head or neck. Remarkably, he won 11 of those 14 races, the first of those coming in his career debut in which he eked out a nose victory in a four-furlong maiden special weight race at Jefferson Downs in Louisiana on May 20, 1977. One of those 11 wins also came via the disqualification of Perrault in the Santa Anita Handicap.
Below is John Henry’s record in photo finishes:
Finish (Track) Date Race (odds) Winner if not John Henry
1 by nose (JnD) 05-20-77 maiden special weight race (8-5)
1 by head (EvD) 09-05-77 Lafayette Futurity (5-1)
1 by neck (Bel) 06-25-78 allowance race (3-1)
2 by head (Bel) 07-29-78 G2 Lexington Hcp (5-1) Mac Diarmida
1 by head (SA) 01-01-80 G3 San Gabriel Hcp (8-5 favorite)
1 by neck (Hol) 05-26-80 G1 Hollywood Invitational Hcp (9-10 favorite)
2 by neck (Bel) 06-14-80 G2 Bowling Green Hcp (9-5 favorite) Sten
1 by neck (Bel) 09-07-80 G3 Brighton Beach Hcp (2-5 favorite)
1 by nose (AP) 08-30-81 Arlington Million (11-10 favorite)
1 by head (Bel) 10-10-81 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (3-1 favorite)
1 by neck (SA) 11-08-81 G1 Oak Tree Invitational (2-5 favorite)
2 by nose (SA) 03-07-82 G1 Santa Anita Handicap (13-10 favorite)*
2 by neck (AP) 08-28-83G1 Arlington Million (7-5 favorite) Tolomeo
1 by neck (Bel) 09-22-84 G1 Turf Classic (1-1 favorite)
*John Henry finished second but was placed first through the disqualification of Perrault
The only three horses to get the better of John Henry in the above table were Tolomeo, Sten and Mac Diarmida. It should be noted that one of those three horses, Mac Diarmida, was voted a 1978 Eclipse Award as champion turf horse.
John Henry was voted a total of seven Eclipse Awards, one shy of Forego’s record.
BACKGROUND CAPTURES LONGACRES MILE
When I was contemplating who to pick on top in last Sunday’s Grade III Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs, I ultimately opted for Five Star General. I was looking for someone capable of coming from off the pace in a race seemingly loaded with front-running types.
I also elected to take a stand against Anyportinastorm, who was being asked to carry top weight of 123 pounds.
Well, I was right to go with a horse who could come from off the pace. And I was right to try and beat Anyportinastorm. I just pick the wrong darn horse.
The right horse was Background. Sixth early in the field of 11 and ridden impeccably by Rocco Bowen, Background came on relentlessly in the stretch and just got up to prevail as the 2-1 favorite. Windribbon, off at odds of 12-1 and a pace factor from the beginning, shook clear in upper stretch to sport a 2 1/2-length advantage at the eighth pole. It looked like Windribbon might well be on his way to an upset, but then he got nailed in the last jump by Background.
Five Star General? He was just way too far back when eighth early after racing extremely wide into the clubhouse turn. Five Star General never threatened, but he did manage to finish third, two lengths behind Windribbon.
Papa’s Golden Boy vied for the lead to the top of the stretch. He weakened a bit in the lane and finished fourth. Considering the pace situation, Papa’s Golden Boy actually acquitted himself well to lose by only a little more than two lengths in a longer race than he prefers.
Anyportinastorm also vied for the lead to the top of the stretch before weakening to end up sixth.
Background carried 121 pounds. Michael Puhich trains the 4-year-old Florida-bred Khozan gelding. Background races for the Giddyup Stables of Bob and Molly Rondeau.
Bob Rondeau is a retired popular Seattle sports broadcaster. He was the radio voice for University of Washington football and basketball for more than 30 years. Rondeau retired following the 2017 football season.
Rondeau for many years anchored the Fox Sports Northwest broadcast of the Longacres Mile. I sat alongside him when I worked as an analyst for the Longacres Mile telecasts in 2001, 2002 and 2003. It was an absolute pleasure to work with such a pro.
As someone who knows Rondeau, I can attest to what a huge thrill it was for him to win the Longacres Mile.
This was the second Longacres Mile victory for Puhich (whose all-time favorite horse, Turbulator, is the same as mine). Puhich also won the 2012 Mile with Taylor Said.
According to Puhich, late in 2019, he happened to see on television a 2-year-old Khozan colt by the name of Untitled win a six-furlong maiden race for Florida-breds by 11 lengths at first asking. Ralph Nicks trained Untitled for owners Brent Fernung and Michael Sebastian.
Puhich was interested in possibly buying Untitled, but it turned out that the price was way too high. Following Untitled’s maiden win, Gary Barber bought into the colt to become a co-owner with Sebastian. Untitled has gone on to win only two of his ensuing 10 starts. Most recently, Untitled finished seventh in the Benny the Bull Stakes last Saturday at Gulstream.
When Puhich was unable to acquire Untitled, the trainer was tipped off to another Khozan offspring. That’s how Background came to be owned by the Rondeaus and trained by Puhich after being acquired privately from two of Untitled’s breeders, Brent Fernung and Crystal Fernung.
The 32-year-old Bowen, who currently is based at Arlington Park, was overcome with emotion after last Sunday’s Longacres Mile, which was the first graded stakes win of his career. It was a “coming home” of sorts for Bowen, who had not ridden a race at Emerald Downs since 2018. Bowen is the only jockey to have won three straight riding titles at the track that conducts racing in the shadow of majestic Mount Rainier.
The Longacres Mile was Background’s first stakes victory. His final time last Sunday was 1:36.67. He was credited with an 82 Beyer Speed figure.
In his most recent start prior to the Mile, Background had recorded an 88 Beyer in Arlington Park’s Hanshin Stakes on June 26, which he lost by a head when finishing second on synthetic footing. He switched to dirt in the Longacres Mile. Background’s previous three career wins had all come on the dirt at Oaklawn Park.
Below are the Beyers for the Longacres Mile winners going back to 1990 (the figures prior to this year are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):
2021 Background (82)
2020 Anothertwistafate (92)
2019 Law Abidin Citizen (96)
2018 Barkley (94)
2017 Gold Rush Dancer (97)
2016 Point Piper (103)
2015 Stryker Phd (99)
2014 Stryker Phd (97)
2013 Herbie D (100)
2012 Taylor Said (98)
2011 Awesome Gem (96)
2010 Noosa Beach (99)
2009 Assessment (94)
2008 Wasserman (90)
2007 The Great Face (91)
2006 Flamethrowintexan (101)
2005 No Giveaway (93)
2004 Adreamisborn (99)
2003 Sky Jack (105)
2002 Sabertooth (96)
2001 Irisheyesareflying (100)
2000 Edneator (104)
1999 Budroyale (106)
1998 Wild Wonder (111)
1997 Kid Katabatic (105)
1996 Isitingood (105)
1995 L.J. Express (94)
1994 Want a Winner (87)
1993 Adventuresome Love (93)
1992 Bolulight (106)
DEL MAR BEYER ADJUSTMENTS
Speaking of Beyer Speed Figures, there was this item on the Daily Racing Form’s website Sunday regarding figures for Del Mar: “Readers of past performances for Del Mar may notice numerous small changes in Beyer Speed Figures at the meeting since they were initially published. The Beyer Speed Figure team has re-timed some of the races at the meeting and recalculated the track variants in an attempt to provide the most accurate possible ratings for the horses at Del Mar.”
NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 338 Knicks Go (27)
2. 303 Letruska (6)
3. 253 Essential Quality (1)
4. 225 Maxfield
5. 150 Domestic Spending (1)
6. 139 Silver State
7. 90 Gamine
8. 60 Hot Rod Charlie
9. 50 Shedaresthedevil
10. 41 Mystic Guide
10. 41 Jackie’s Warrior
Saratoga & Del Mar Pick 5 Analysis & Selections
August 19, 2021 | By Johnny D
Let’s be frank. There’s nothing simple about picking winners. That’s especially true during ultra-competitive Saratoga and Del Mar meetings. Saturday cards at the Spa and Where the Turf Meets the Surf are great examples of how players can find solid horses with real chances to win at great odds. But it’s not easy. Putting 5 winners together in a Pick 5 is an uphill challenge. Anyone who’s tried knows how difficult that can be. And at Saratoga and Del Mar, the task is made even more difficult because the competition in each race runs so deep.
This is the next to last Saturday for Xpressbet’s Fun in the Sun competition and only 10 open seats at the Final Table remain. They will be awarded to the top 5 finishers this week and next. Those fortunate players will join 22 individuals who already own 25 opportunities to play for a $20,000 pot. Make sure to take your best shot to join them by playing Fun in the Sun Saturday. There’s a $25 registration fee and players are asked to make $10 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races.
Below is one man’s analysis of this week’s Fun in the Run races—the last 5 at Saratoga and the first 5 at Del Mar. Analysis and Selections are made before scratches and changes and are based on fast tracks and firm turf courses.
The ultimate goal of the analysis is to highlight handicapping angles that might help players in quests to conquer wagering challenges, whatever they might be—Win, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta or Fun in the Sun success. Price is important, so use the analysis to look for horses with positive comments and swollen odds.
Great luck!
Saratoga
Race 7
Maiden Special Weight
Two Years Old
Six & One-Half Furlongs
#1 Southern Sense draws the rail in his third start. He’s been a longshot before and should be one again today.
#2 My Prankster is a first-time starter from the Todd Pletcher barn that was purchased for $600k as a yearling. The son of Into Mischief has worked steadily and progressively for this debut. Top jock Luis Saez rides and the colt has two nice four-furlong gate moves.
#3 Tiumphant Road cost $475k as a 2-year-old but has a bit of a sketchy work tab for low-profile connections.
#4 Skate to Heaven is a first-time starting son of Laoban with steady works every seven days for hot trainer Robertino Diodoro, who’s also good with debut runners (22%). David Cohen (3 for 43) rides.
#5 Bellinger is another Todd Pletcher first-time starter. This son of Super Saver has solid works and is ridden by Jose Ortiz—23% with Pletcher.
#6 Seal Beach adds blinkers off a decent first time out over a ‘good’ Spa track. Tyler Gaffalione replaces Javier Castellano and the former is 29% with hot trainer Maker this meeting. He closed ground going five and one-half furlongs and now tries six and one-half panels. Theoretically, that should play to his strengths but it doesn’t always work out that way.
#7 Fromanothamutha was well-beaten last out after bobbling at the start at 10-1 odds. Low-profile trainer Ray Handal adds blinkers for this.
#8 Reserve Currency is a $375k 2-year-old purchase from the Chad Brown stable. He’s been working every 6-8 days and Brown is 18% with first time starters. It should be noted that sire American Freedom has a $6k stud fee, so that 2-year-old price tag suggests this one has shown a lot on the track.
#9 Cogburn has worked every 7 or so days for trainer Steve Asmussen and has drawn a cozy outside post position for his debut. Ricardo Santana rides for his main outfit and they are 19% at the current meeting. This one sports some quick four-furlong moves.
Best: #2, #5, #8
Race 8
Claiming
Three Years Old & Upward
Seven Furlongs
#1 Restoring Hope has had 5 different trainers in his 12-race career, all for owner-breeders Gary and Mary West. The 6-year-old has fast races in 2019 but hasn’t been that good recently.
#2 Golani Brigade drops in for a tag for the first time for trainer Chad Brown. That’s always a dangerous move. Add to that this 5-year-old gelding’s 2 for 2 mark at Saratoga and 2 for 3 resume at the distance and he’s the one to beat in here.
#3 Vulcan is a new face on the New York circuit, brought from Churchill Downs by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. The 3-year-old colt has done his best work over an ‘off’ track at Prairie Meadows.
#4 Identity Politics is a second runner from the Chad Brown stable that drops in for a tag for the first time. Like #2 Golani Brigade, this one appears to handle Saratoga and the distance. He hasn’t won a race since May 2019 and that’s mostly because he’s been facing better and has a closing style that sometimes just misses.
#5 Charlie Five O was claimed for $16k last out while winning by more than 8 lengths in May. That was a non-winners of 2 and this is a big step up in class. Trainer Linda Rice plays the claiming game as well as anyone but this is a big ask.
#6 El Sobreviviente was claimed last out for $40k by trainer Mike Maker and he’s 16% with first claims. This colt has spent most of his time racing at Indiana, Turfway and Churchill. He races from off the pace and will need to step up his game to defeat this group.
#7 Striking Speed starts for hot trainer Rob Atras, has a win and a second in 3 Spa starts and comes off a troubled allowance race over a ‘good’ track. The 4-year-old gelding will be ridden by Santana and the barn has done well with him. This is just the second start under Atras and the drop in class should help his chances.
#8 American Rule seems overmatched in here for 1 for 37 trainer Peter Tournas and an 0 for 12 apprentice jockey.
#9 Thereisastormbrewin has speed and an outside draw for 0 for 22 trainer Michele Nevin. This 5-year-old gelding was claimed for $35k last time out. Just 2 wins in 17 starts with 5 seconds and 4 thirds suggests that an in-the-money finish is most likely.
#10 Respect for All cuts back from a one mile and one-eighth route to this six-furlong sprint. He hasn’t been fast enough in the past to win this.
Chad on the Drop: #2, #5
Race 9
Lake Placid
Grade 2 – Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile & One-Sixteenth (Turf)
#1 Illiogame has two turf starts and has handled it well enough. He broke maiden three back at Keeneland and then won a first-level allowance race at Churchill. She was not a factor in the Gr. 2 Mother Goose. She would be a surprise in the winner’s circle.
#2 Technical Analysis is fit and sharp off a Gr. 3 Lake George going one mile on Spa grass. That upset win at 7-1 was his third win in five starts. He’s also 2 for 3 at the distance. Jose Ortiz returns in the saddle for Chad Brown and they’re a sparkling 23% out of 40 starters at the meeting.
#3 Ego Trip is a maiden that just missed first out in this country after a troubled start and a late flurry. Maidens aren’t usually great plays against winners in stakes, so we’ll pass on this one.
#4 Runaway Rumour closed to be fourth in the Gr. 3 Lake George last out. Before that she won the Wild Applause at Belmont, a state-bred allowance and a state-bred maiden race. Three wins in 4 starts is an excellent record for a hot trainer in Jorge Abreau (24%). She may be at the mercy of a slow pace in this short field.
#5 Lovestruck won the first two starts of her career before fading last out in the Wild Applause at Belmont. That was her first race since November, so she may have needed the outing. Johnny V. takes over for Junior Alvarado and will have this filly either on or near the early pace. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in this race and trainer Mott has had a solid meeting.
#6 Spanish Loveaffair is the most experienced filly in the field with 8 lifetime starts, mostly in graded stakes races, including the mile and one-quarter Gr. 1 Belmont Oaks last out and the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf last November. She’s a Grade 3 stakes winner and was Grade 2 placed at 2. It’s a bit unusual that jockey Tyler Gaffalione moves from this filly, trained by solid client Mark Casse, to #3 Ego Trip conditioned by Brendan Walsh. Santana takes over in the saddle.
New York Bred Star: #4
Others to Fear Most: #2, #5
Race 10
Alabama
Grade 1 – Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile & One Quarter
#1 Crazy Beautiful is on a roll with two consecutive wins—Gr. 2 Summer Oaks at Santa Anita and Gr. 3 Delaware Oaks—and three triumphs in her last 4, including the Gr. 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She like to race just off the early pace and then launch her bid. She’s been first or second in 8 out of 10 starts and has earned $700k. While talented and sharp, this is a step up for her.
#2 Will’s Secret fits with these off a pair of third-place finishes behind favored Malathaat in the Gr. 1 Ashland and Gr. 1 Kentucky Oaks. A similar finish is about the best we can expect in here.
#3 Clairiere has been close to #6 Malathaat and #4 Maracuja and has been in the money in 6 out of 7 starts. Trainer Steve Asmussen rides Irad Ortiz for the third time and it could be the charm. She races just off the pace and is a Gr. 2 winner. She moved early against #6 Malathaat and then faded to third. A more patient ride can be expected.
#4 Maracuja upset the applecart in the Gr. 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks at nearly 15-1 odds. That race was over the Saratoga surface and, if she improved over the track, she could be a threat right back for trainer Rob Atras. On the other hand, she couldn’t keep pace with #6 Malathaat in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Oaks.
#5 Played Hard is razor sharp right now with back-to-back wire-to-wire wins at Churchill and Saratoga. She will use her speed again under jockey Luis Saez. A :59 2/5 bullet best of 35 on August 7 reinforces this filly’s sharpness. No doubt, this is a tougher group and this filly will need to go faster early than she has before. That pressure might cause her to crack.
#6 Malathaat clearly is the one to beat in here. She’s a multiple Gr. 1 winner and was a head loser to #4 Maracuja last out. That was her first loss in 6 starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. She’s got a style that keeps her within striking distance. It’s difficult to get around her in here but she’ll be an extremely short price off a loss to another filly in this race.
#7 Army Wife is another hot filly with two consecutive wins and three victories out of her last four starts. She won the Gr. 2 Black Eyed Susan and the Gr. 3 Iowa Oaks her last two times out. Tyler Gaffalione takes over for the west coast bound Joel Rosario. Trainer Maker and jockey Gaffalione are successful together at 29% this meeting.
Searching for an Upset: #3, #5
Race 11
Maiden Special Weight
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward
One Mile (Turf)
#1 Gauff is a first-time starter by highly-rated European sire Siyouni and trained by Brad Cox. If he ran well, it wouldn’t surprise.
#2 Good Talk has started at huge odds twice and probably will be a longshot again.
#3 Epona Bay is a first time starter by American Pharoah for Ken McPeek. The trainer is not known for being strong with debut runners.
#4 Split Then Double is one of two Chad Brown runners in this race. He’s been second twice and third once in just four starts. He was favored last out in a race common to several runners in here. He’s got the highest last race Beyer Figure and has improved speed ratings in each start. He failed as favorite last out and will be strongly backed again.
#5 Gailhorsewind adds blinkers for Linda Rice. She’ll stretch out to one mile after four turf sprints. She’s a late-running sprinter.
#6 Ingress makes a second start for trainer Bill Mott and she’s liable to improve off an ‘even’ performance going one mile over the Spa lawn. That’s the common race to several in here, so she fits.
#7 Miss Bonnie T has had 7 tries around two turns on turf with 3 seconds and 1 third. Another minor award seems most likely.
#8 Rhombique adds Lasix for low-profile conditioner Robert Ribaudo and moves to turf around two turns off a ‘muddy’ sprint. Seems like a longshot in here.
#9 So Enchanting was second last out, her first around two turns for trainer Chad Brown. She hasn’t been off the board in 4 starts, with 3 seconds and 1 third. She deserves respect.
#10 Let’s Go Native makes a second start for trainer Shug McGaughey. She’s been off since June when sixth at this level going one mile on grass. She was 32-1 odds that day and probably will be a big price again.
#11 Mayhap is a first-time starter for low-profile connections breaking from the far outside post. Asking a lot.
Chad Holds Cards: #4, #9
Mott May Upset: #6
Del Mar
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight
Fillies Two Years Old
Five & One-Half Furlongs
#1 Keychain Girl brought $208k as a yearling and has two nice gate works for 14% first out trainer Mark Glatt who is 1 for 1 with jockey Joe Bravo at the meeting. Not hopeless but prefer others.
#2 Ain’t Easy has worked every 7 to 8 days for 12% first out trainer Phil D’Amato and visiting top jock Joel Rosario. It should be noted that D’Amato is 31% with 2-year-olds. A sharp five-furlong gate drill highlights this $400k yearling purchase’s training. Lots to like.
#3 Mirasol is a second-time starter for trainer Bob Baffert, who is 21% in that department and is 30% with 2-year-olds in his last 77 runners. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith returns aboard this daughter of Arrogate. Has to be respected.
#4 Booze Runner invades from Arizona Downs where the $20k yearling purchase has registered fast works for 17% trainer Molly Pearson. This daughter of Gun Runner appears to have speed, but this is a deep field and trainer Pearson is not known to win first time out.
#5 Infinite Empire is a $360k yearling purchase with a steady series of works for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. This daughter of Empire Maker may need more distance for her best. Mandella is 18% with first timers and with 2-year-olds. Top Del Mar jock Prat rides. Another with credentials in a loaded race.
#6 Benedict Canyon was purchased for $215k as a 2-year-old and has worked roughly every 7 days, posting some fast five-furlong moves that suggest this one can motor. The daughter of Midnight Lute is the second Baffert runner in the race and the trainer is 29% with first timers and 30% with 2-year-olds. On paper, this looks like the one to beat in here.
#7 Belle Cherie has worked every 6 or 7 days for 13% first time out trainer Simon Callaghan who is 26% overall with 2-year-olds. A flashy four-furlong gate drill August 13 suggests this one has some early speed. A $350k 2-year-old price tag also suggests this one is stylish. Visiting jock Florent Geroux is up.
Best in a Loaded Race: #6
Next Best: #2, #3, #7
Race 2
Claiming
Three Years Old & Upward
Six & One-Half Furlongs
#1 Self Taught is a 4-year-old claimed for $20k last out by trainer Bob Hess, who is 13% first off the claim. The rail post isn’t the best, but this one has no early speed, so he’ll need to save ground and fire late. He’s zero for 3 at Del Mar and was claimed by Hess at Churchill Downs in June of last year before finishing second at the 20k non winners of 3 level. Probably not for us.
#2 Red Valor is a 5-year-old who was claimed out of the same race as the #1 Self Taught. This gelding won the race going this distance from just off the early pace. He moves up in class and from the outside to the inside. Before that last race, he won a $16k non-winners of 2 at Los Alamitos. He’s going for his fourth win in five starts overall but never has succeeded at this level. He’s just 1 for 9 at Del Mar.
#3 Speed Pass is a 5-year-old taking a substantial drop in class for trainer Bob Baffert, who’s hitting 28% at Del Mar. Owners Pegram, Watson & Weitman are not averse to a drop and win play. This quick runner has a solid five-furlong gate drill for this and hasn’t been out since June. In March he was shipped from California to Aqueduct for the Gr. 3 Tom Fool where he finished sixth. He’s the one to beat in here.
#4 P R Radio Star is a 6-year-old that has 2 wins and a second in 4 starts at Del Mar. His recent work has been done at Oaklawn Park and Churchill Downs for trainer Phil D’Amato. Jockey J J Hernandez knows the gelding well and has two wins with him, both at Del Mar last year. This guy deserves respect.
#5 Smileforme is a fit, 4-year-old with a winning spirit, having succeeded 5 out of 18 times. He just missed in his only Del Mar start. Last out, at Golden Gate, he was a well-beaten fifth for high percentage trainer Jonathan Wong who’s struggled at Del Mar this season (1 for 26). Notable that Rosario rides this winner of 3 of his last 5 starts on lesser circuits.
#6 Buttered Noodles is a fit 4-year-old that was claimed last out for $32k and is dropped by trainer Manny Ortiz. Five pound apprentice jockey Ortega seeks his first Del Mar triumph in 42 starts. This gelding was claimed for $40k by former trainer John Sadler at Churchill Downs. He’s got some early speed, but recent form leaves us empty.
#7 Major Cabbie attracts the meet’s leading rider Prat for trainer Peter Miller and drops from a second-place finish at $32k to $25k—his lowest level ever. He closed from off the pace last out and Prat got to know him. He should be very dangerous right back. He hasn’t won since October ’19 at Keeneland, but he’s faced lots of stakes competition since. Miller and Prat are 29% together.
#8 Mr. Dougie Fresh also is a Miller runner in here. He’s 7-years-old and comes off a troubled allowance effort. Before that he was claimed for $20k out of a Belmont sprint when he was a close third from just off the pace. He’s a former solid optional claimer but hasn’t fired a race at that level since March ’20.
Best: #3
Next: #7
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming
Three Years Old & Upward
One Mile & One-Sixteenth (Turf)
#1 Ottawa Fire is a 4-year-old making a second US start for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Prat. This team moves from the outside to the inside and should do better than a sixth placing last out when favored at this level July 24, a common race for five of these. Blinkers go ‘on’ and the trainer is 19% with the move. Prat and D’Amato are 29% together.
#2 One Fast Bro is a razor-sharp winner last out of a Cal-bred optional claimer at Del Mar. He likes this course—2 wins, 2 thirds in 4 starts and is 1 for 1 at the distance for low-profile trainer Shelbe Ruis. Jockey JJ Hernandez moves here over two others in this race he rode last out.
#3 Mohawk King just missed last out when second for the third consecutive time since coming to the US from Great Britain. Geroux replaces Hernandez in the saddle and this one can be expected to go to the front from the inside, part of the early pace with #5 Constitutionaffair.
#4 Memo Daddy is another that loses Hernandez in the saddle. He’s replaced by Rispoli and trainer Michael McCarthy and that jock are an excellent 27% together. This 5-year-old horse set the pace going one mile and one-eighth but couldn’t quite hold on two back. He had trouble last time out in the race common to many of these. He won’t be able to make an easy lead in here either and is just 1 for 14, overall.
#5 Constitutionaffair is a 4-year-old gelding with speed going one mile on turf. He’s been favored in his last 2 races, with 1 win and 1 second. He’s 3 for 8 overall with 3 seconds and 1 third, so you can count on him to show up. He should keep things lively up front with #3 Mohawk King and #7 Dominant Soul. If forced to battle early, the extra sixteenth of a mile may be his downfall.
#6 Uncle Addouma is a 4-year-old colt with less than attractive recent form. He had trouble in his last—the common race to many of these—and didn’t race poorly when fourth, less than 2 lengths behind #5 Constitutionaffair. He’s a reach in here.
#7 Dominant Soul has speed and needed his last race—the common effort to many in here. He was third last year in the Gr. 2 Del Mar Derby at 50-1 after setting the pace. Expect him to be close to the early pace in here and to fade in the final stages.
#8 Evening Sun is a 4-year-old gelding with just 1 win in 9 starts and that came in Great Britain a year ago. He did cross the finish first last out in the race common to many of these, but was disqualified for interference and placed 8th. He was nearly 22-1 that afternoon off a disappointing first US start for trainer Jeff Mullins. Jockey Van Dyke returns in the saddle seeking to right the last race wrong. This gelding races from off the pace and has to avoid losing ground from this outside post.
Best in a Scramble: #1
Worth a Look: #2
Race 4
Maiden Special Weight
Two Years Old
Five & One-Half Furlongs
#1 Rhetoric is one of 3 Bob Baffert-trained entries in the race and he’s a $600k yearling purchase that has a trio of quick five furlong works for his debut. Top jock Prat rides and he’s 33% with Baffert. Hard to ignore this one.
#2 Forbidden Kingdom is a $300k yearling purchase by American Pharoah going postward for trainer Richard Mandella. He’s got a 1:00 2/5 five-furlong work to accompany a six furlong 1:14 3/5 and a bullet three-eighths. Nice pattern for a first start but not as flashy as some of his foes.
#3 The Met goes second time for trainer Luis Mendez, a 26% move. This New York-bred was a well-beaten fourth first time out at 22-1.
#4 Kamui is another of the Baffert contingent in here and Joel Rosario rides and they are 43% together. A solid series of works every 7-8 days seems to have this $400k yearling purchase by Quality Road ready to fire.
#5 The Key is Unity is a $100k 2-year-old purchase with a nice five-furlong San Luis Rey bullet alongside a second-best of 98 four-furlong move at Santa Anita. Doug O’Neill trains and Frey rides. Compared to others in here the overall work tab is light.
#6 Portsmouth is the third of the Baffert crew. He was a $150k yearling purchase and has worked about every 7 to 8 days, including a swift :59 1/5 best-of-87 move July 24. Cedillo rides and he wins at 33% for Baffert. A total of 5 five furlong works ought to have this one well past fit for his debut. Adds to an already very deep race.
#7 Beef Winslow is a $125k 2-year-old purchase by Honor Code trained by Doug O’Neill. His best is a second best of 84 four furlong gate move August 7. Rispoli rides and the colt has worked every 7 days for his debut.
Baffert’s Best: #1, #4, #6
Race 5
Maiden Special Weight
Three Years Old & Upward
One Mile & One-Sixteenth (Turf)
#1 Lone Scout will attempt to improve on a close third last out in a one-mile maiden race. Joe Bravo returns in the saddle. Blinkers go on for trainer Bob Hess, but the colt has worn them in the past. He’s steady from off the pace but not spectacular.
#2 Hollywoodhellraisr is a 4-year-old with 6 failed maiden runs on his resume, three around two turns. He was a close second by a head at this level two back at Santa Anita and was a troubled sixth last out in a race common to a few of these. Trainer Phil D’Amato has two runners in this race and Jose Valdivia, winless with the trainer rides here.
#3 Tulsa Tornado makes the third start of his career for trainer Michael McCarthy. He was fourth after racing evenly last time out in a race common to several of these. Trevor McCarthy rides and he is winless at Del Mar for the trainer in 6 tries. This colt could improve off his last race.
#4 Reserve invades from Churchill for trainer Ron Moquett and returns to turf where he failed two races back. He’s never been fast enough to win this, according to Beyer Speed Figures.
#5 Hulk is a first-time starter for trainer Jeff Mullins who’s been working every seven days. Mullins is not known for firing first-out (8%) and jockey Gonzalez is 0-3 with the trainer at Del Mar this year.
#6 Prince Abama will make his second start, first in the US for trainer Phil D’Amato, who’s good with this type (41%) and with runners making their first starts for him (25%). He’s been gelded and will race with Lasix for the first time. Rispoli rides and he’s 40% at Del Mar with the trainer. Lots to like about this one, especially since the local runners haven’t been particularly impressive.
#7 Affable has speed and will try turf for the first time for trainer Mark Glatt. The son of Flatter may take to the surface and probably will make the lead and be stalked by #9 Subconscious. They ought to establish an honest pace. Jockey Cedillo moves from #9 and #10 Offlee Naughty to this colt. This colt was a notable $600k 2-year-old purchase.
#8 Shotgun Express races for trainer Dan Blacker for the first time and will need to turn the ship around in a hurry off a poor first out. Lasix will be added today.
#9 Subconscious has speed and makes his fourth career start. He’s been close twice in turf routes and has been gelded since his last for trainer Richard Mandella. He’s lost ground in the stretch of his last two and should have company up front in here.
#10 Offlee Naughty is one of two Michael McCarthy-trained runners in here and he gets the services of visiting top jock Joel Rosario. They win at 17% overall. This colt has no speed and comes out of the race common to others in here. Rosario will need to navigate a ground-saving trip from this tough post. The pace should help his cause. He has finished behind several others in this field.
#11 Barbwire’s first turf race was a good one when second to Dicey Mo Chara in the race common to many in here. Prat returns in the saddle for trainer Richard Baltas and they are 27% overall together. This son of Uncle Mo has enough speed to get over from this outside post and Prat is an expert at saving ground. He’s the best of those coming out of the common race.
#12 El Joy has failed in 8 starts, with 3 seconds and 1 third. He was second last out in a maiden turf race at Golden Gate. He’ll need to do better than he ever has to have a say in here.
Top Spot: #6
Next Best: #11
Race On!
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #3
Arlington - Race #4
Picks Notes #5 Aggressivity He has to turn the tables on the guy drawn just outside of him, but there is some chance that one and his stablemate won't be able to avoid burning each other out. Spying score here? #6 Get Hammered He seems more likely than his stablemate to press the splits just a bit, and he gets the best of the draw to prompt the issue out of the gate. Underlaid chance. #4 Hide the Demon He might be able to land a similar trip to the top choice, and he has proven capable of bouncing back off flat tries in the past. Race Summary There are only two speed horses in here, but they're both mostly need-the-lead types, so the hope is Aggressivity can track the splits and get that pair to come back to him in the lane.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #7 Silver Cloud She has shown some solid tactical pace in recent starts, and that should help her land a perfect trip from the outside while trying turf for the first time. #2 Big Band Luzziann Her form has been hit or miss, but she owns a couple of decent sprint tries and can probably finish into the pace this afternoon. #4 Docs Seven She has never run a bad one locally, but now she'll have to navigate the turf course for the first time while likely facing a little bit of pressure in the early stages. Race Summary Silver Cloud would be attractive at something like the 4/1 ML price in a race where she figures to get a good go of things, and the barn is really capable with this kind.
Picks Notes #2 Rave On He chased quick sprint splits in his only lifetime turf try, and he is bred to be able to stay this trip while moving around two turns. Price player offers some intrigue from right up on the splits. #7 Admiral Returns He owns a couple of really nice turf tries, but I worry that he'll be along just a bit too late with these at too short a price. Definitely in the mix. #4 Bourre' Trick He has a little ability to sit and finish, but he tends to give away ground late and might be best used underneath with these. Race Summary Rave On might offer a decent number on the board, and his only turf try came in a quick race early in which he chased and faded. Interesting enough to try at a price.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Scioto Downs - Race #2
Northfield Park - Race #4
Picks Notes #8 AMERICANPRIMETIME Steady late kick, steady check-getter, good value play. #5 HAVEFAITHINME Classy 10yo gets break from open company, projects ideal trip, too. #4 NVRPOPTAPLUGS Good first gear, has loyal following, can top $100,000 in earnings. Race Summary Americanprimetime arrived from the 7/8-mile Hoosier Park oval and rallied for second behind the 7-5 favorite. He gets plenty of pace to rally into and can spring a mild surprise if he picks up live cover. Play an 8-ALL exacta.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes #5 MEMBER BERRY Starts fresh, series of fourths at Hoosier better than they appear. #3 DON'TMAKEAFOOLOFME Seeks fourth consecutive victory in deeper field. #9 FIFTYSHADESOFBLISS Second to odds-on, repeat winner from post 9. Race Summary Member Berry burned serious money at Hoosier Park when she failed to rally in fast, final quarter splits. She starts off a 10-week layoff for a 27-percent barn, so give her the nod at a projected better price. Play 5-3 and 5-9 exactas.
Picks Notes #2 NICE KITTY HANOVER Steady form, favorable draw, won in her second start of cycle in June. #1 GOOD NIGHT MOON Rallied to win the last four times she raced at Woodbine. #6 OFF THE RECORD On the record, she finished in money in 11 of 14 before stakes tries. Race Summary Nice Kitty Hanover, a beaten odds-on favorite twice from the same starting spot recently, can be excused for her latest try from post 10. She's consistent and a good fit in here at a better price. Play a 1-2-6 exacta box.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #7
Del Mar - Race #9
Picks Notes #6 Mo Forza Finished up 2020 with wins in six of seven races, and while he's working here with a nine-month layoff; his drills have been good and he's ready to rejoin the top of the heap in these parts. #5 Count Again Has been a steady closer in his last three and has come up with two thirds and a fourth; he chased slow fractions in those races and can get a better setup here. #3 Smooh Like Strait Even when he loses, this one is right there; ranks among the best grass horses in the country and comes in off a solid second and will work out a good trip again. Race Summary Mo Forza is a tremendous miler, with wins in his last four at the distance, and can be very tough off the layoff.
Del Mar - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 Madone Beat Going Global by a neck last out in the G2 San Clemente and does particularly well when there's a good pace on; has taken five of seven lifetime starts and jockey Hernandez fits her quite well. #3 Going Global Is four of five since arriving from Ireland and has been a solid finisher; doesn't need a particular pace and will be around for the end #7 Fluffy Socks Made a big run for second in the G3 Lake George at Saratoga and has been in good form in east; won the Jimmy Durante here last November in her last visit. Race Summary Madone has tremendous late energy and can be counted on for a big move; should welcome the additional furlong in this spot.
Picks Notes #4 Royal Ship Lost a photo the last time he was at this distance (G1 Gold Cup); trainer Mandella does well in this race and at this distance, and this veteran is ready to stretch out for a big run. #5 Express Train Was second in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap and more recently won the G2 San Diego over this strip; hasn't run a bad one this year and can dig in for a strong finish. #7 Independence Hall Geroux picks up the mount on this one, who hasn't run since a sprint here last November; likely to be close up to the pace and can stick around for a piece of it. Race Summary Royal Ship usually puts himself in a good spot and can grind out a big effort here; last won in the G2 Californian, when he was close up throughout. Look for a similar effort.
Cappers Access
Sat (NFL) Bears
Sat (NFL) Vikings
Sat (NFL) Raiders
Hakeem Profit
Event: (637) Phoenix Mercury at (638) Atlanta Dream
Sport/League: WNBA
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: 1H Total Over 81.5 (-110)
Marco D'Angelo
Event: (915) Chicago White Sox at (916) Tampa Bay Rays
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -129 D Keuchel (LHP), L Patino (RHP) Must Start
FREE PLAY: TAMPA BAY -129
Tampa Bay looks to bounce back in game 2 of the series today. This series could be a preview of the ALCS as these are two of the best in the American League. Tampa should have success today against Dallas Keuchel who has a ERA of close to 5.00 on the road this season. Tampa Bay has been outstanding in day games this year as they are averaging 5.6 RPG and have a 33-14 record this year in Day Games. We also find that Tampa Bay is 14-4 as a Home Favorite of -150 or less this season.
TAKE TAMPA BAY
Bobby Ligs
Event: (901) New York Mets at (902) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-125) R Hill (LHP), M Scherzer (RHP) Must Start
Jimmy Adams
Event: (413) Baltimore Ravens at (414) Carolina Panthers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3.0 (-115)
The Ravens are 18-0 SU and 16-1-1 ATS in their last 18 preseason games. John Harbaugh is a coach that likes to win, whether the games matter or not. Carolina Coach Matt Rhule said that he’ll play a “handful of starters a small amount” on Saturday. Sam Darnold is likely to play, and he’s a guy that’s been turnover prone all the way back to his days at USC. Look for the Baltimore defensive line to dominate in the trenches as we look to cash another NFL preseason ticket. Take the Ravens.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -3 or lower, 3 units at -3.5 or higher
Ralph Michaels
Event: (417) Tennessee Titans at (418) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 35.0 (-110)
UNDER 35 TEN/TB
Nick Borrman
Event: New York City FC at New York Red Bulls
Sport/League: MLS
Date/Time: August 21, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: New York City FC -0.25 (-115)
MLS
The H2H trend between these teams suggests taking the road team is not a good idea as the road team is winless in the last ten meetings. But I'm going to ignore that trend here simply because the season numbers are too good in favor of NYCFC.
By the numbers:
NYCFC
2.03 xG (#1) | 0.95 xGA (#1) | +1.08 xG differential (#1)
16.2 Shots for (#1) | 6.1 on Goal (#1)
8.0 Shots allowed (#1) | 3.3 on Goal (#1)
They are number 1 across the board which is remarkably impressive.
NYRB
1.24 xG (#21) | 1.38 xGA (#11) | -0.15 xG differential (#14)
13.9 Shots for (#7) | 4.1 on Goal (#18)
10.5 Shots allowed (#5) | 4.2 on Goal (#13)
NYCFC is in a little funk right now winning just one of their last four games, but NYRB is in an even worse funk with four losses in their last six games and just two wins over their last 11. I think worst case for NYCFC is a draw in this game which at this current line is only a half-loss so I see some pretty good value in grabbing the -0.25 number.
TAKE NYCFC -0.25
Line Parameter: 2% to -130, 1% at -0.5
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