Service Plays Saturday 8/21/21

[dawggy]

JM SPORTS

• Game: (425) Denver Broncos at (426) Seattle Seahawks
  Date/Time: Aug 21 2021 10:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: Denver Broncos -5.0 (-110)
  
  4% Denver -5 Seattle

• Game: (903) Washington Nationals at (904) Milwaukee Brewers
  Date/Time: Aug 21 2021 4:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: 1H Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 (-140) P Espino (RHP), E Lauer (LHP) Must Start
  
  3unit MILW W/ Lauer FIRST FIVE w/ Lauer -½ run -140 (WASH with Espino)

[FATMANWINS]

ats
5 tampa
5 clev
5 balt over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers NFL X

3% Miami Dolphins -5 (-110)
3% Carolina Panthers +3' (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

5% - under 8 SF/Oakland, Action

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

5% - San Diego Padres, ACTION

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLX Sharp Action

4:25 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers

The Jets (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) took care of business in their preseason opener, beating the cross town rival Giants 12-7 and covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to the Texans 26-7 in Week 1, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. This non-conference showdown opened with Green Bay listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on the Jets, flipping New York from + 2.5 to -2.5. The Jets are in a classic sharp "dog to favorite" spot. This move to New York came on the heels of the news that Green Bay is unlikely to play quarterback Jordan Love due to a shoulder injury. With Love hurt and Green Bay sitting Aaron Rodgers, the Packers only have two healthy quarterbacks for today's game: Kurt Benkert and Jake Dolegala. Sharps have placed an "information based" bet on the Jets as a result. For those who missed the early number on the Jets but still want to follow the sharp move, a moneyline play on New York (-145) may be more appetizing than laying an inflated number. We've also seen pros hit this under, dropping the total from 34 to 31.5. Preseason unders that fall at least a point are 70-50 (58%) since 2014.

7:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Titans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) dominated the Falcons 23-3 in last week's preseason opener, easily covering as 1-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Bucs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to the lowly Bengals 19-14, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. Bucs head coach Bruce Arians announced that Tom Brady is unlikely to play. Arians added "We probably won't play any starters." Following this news, wiseguys have hammered Tennessee plus the points, moving the Titans from + 3 to + 1. Some books are even falling to a pick'em. Preseason dogs with line moves in their favor are 66-46 ATS (59%) since 2014. Pros have also targeted the under with Tampa resting their offensive firepower, dropping the total from 37 to 35.


10 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

The Broncos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) looked impressive in their preseason opener, crushing the Vikings 33-6 as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (0-1 SU. 0-1 ATS) got throttled by the Raiders 20-7, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Broncos, driving Denver up from -2.5 to -5. Preseason teams with a line move in their favor who missed the playoffs the previous year against teams who made the playoffs are 84-70 ATS (55%) the last decade. One reason to lean toward Denver: the QB competition. With Drew Lock competing with Teddy Bridgewater, both quarterbacks are expected to play several series and both are incentivized to play well and score points in order to win the job. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll hasn't announced whether he'll play Russell Wilson and other key starters (Wilson sat out the preseason opener). The total is 37.5, which puts it above the "magic number." Totals of 37 or higher as 8-0 to the under this preseason and 62% since 2014.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast Sports

4 Minn-2 (goy)
3 NYJ -2.5
3 Hou/Dall under 37

[rocky57]

H&H Sports
Update #1

MLB
Triple Dime - Tampa Bay Rays -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Winningham
3 leg time zone parlay
nyy
Bears under
Bucs under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Bollman

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TAMPA BAY | 08/21 | 1:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -130
ANALYSIS: Luis Patino vs. Dallas Keuchel, and both pitchers have had their struggles with walks this season. Howeve, Patino is much better at home. Tim Anderson and Luis Robert are out of the lineup today and the Rays have one of the best home records in the league. Take the Rays at home.

+1593 54-41 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS
+611 15-9 IN LAST 24 CHW ML PICKS
11:13 AM

KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 08/21 | 2:20 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +105
ANALYSIS: Kris Bubic was hit hard last time out against the Cardinals, but that was his second time seeing the lineup in a row and he had been pitching well before that. The Cubs also tend to struggle against lefties. Keegan Thompson has been good but he should only go 2 innings or so in a bullpen game. Sal Perez is in the lineup after getting banged up yesterday, take the Royals.

+1593 54-41 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS
+581 22-10 IN LAST 32 CHC ML PICKS
11:13 AM

MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/21 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -216
ANALYSIS: Gerrit Cole vs. Kenta Maeda in a day game today. Gerritt Cole’s recent numbers are inflated by a poor performance against the Rays, who for whatever reason, own him. He has actually been pitching really well including a quality start against the Twins earlier this season. Kenta Maeda is pitching well too but he is much worse on the road with a 5.77 ERA. The Yankees have the best record in the league the past month, take the Yankees at home.

+1593 54-41 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS
+1318 40-24 IN LAST 64 MIN ML PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS
11:12 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharpfootballtotals
vikings UND 37.5
Broncos OV 37.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Justin Perri

KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 08/21 | 2:20 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is a weather-correlated play with the wind blowing out at Wrigley and the Air Density Index lower than average. It also does not hurt to have two pitchers who are mediocre at best in Kris Bubic and Keegan Thompson. Thompson is an opener who likely won't finish the third or fourth inning, and Bubic has a .486 xSLG and a 6.10 road ERA. These offenses are both worrisome for Overs, but 1) Kansas City getting an extended look at the Cubs bullpen; 2) a subpar Bubic on the road and 3) good hitting conditions give this enough value at -105.

+1076 25-11-1 IN LAST 37 MLB PICKS
+800 8-0 IN LAST 8 CHC O/U PICKS
12:24 PM

MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/21 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda has a 5.77 ERA on the road compared to just 2.13 at home. Gerrit Cole has looked sharp in his return and should limit the Twins while the Yankees continue to sound off. Maeda has allowed 14 HR on the road in just 64 innings, and the Yankees have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Plus, only once in the last 24 meetings between these teams has the game been decided by one run. Run line is the way to go.

+1076 25-11-1 IN LAST 37 MLB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 MIN ATS PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ATS PICKS
11:57 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

FireKeepers Casino 400

1 #18 Kyle Busch (+650) - He only has one Cup win at Michigan, which is very surprising considering he has four wins at Fontana, which is almost the same layout as Michigan. The reason he offers so much value this week is that he's been the best collectively on the tracks using the high downforce race package with engines producing only 550 horsepower. Kyle Larson has led the most laps with it, but Busch has both his wins using it and has finished in the top-five in the last seven races using it after starting the season with a 10th-place at Homestead in February. He's beat Larson head to head in the last three races using this week's race package and Larson will likely be a -165 favorite over Busch on Sunday in head-to-head matchups. Might as well bet that too.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (+300) - Even before Larson was dominating NASCAR, he was winning at Michigan. He won three straight Michigan races in 2016-17. But he's been better with the 750 HP package, which has been raced 14 times already. He'll be great here rim-riding around the top of the track, but isn't attractive at 3-to-1 odds offered by Caesars Sportsbook when Kyle Busch is rated higher with this package. Scout around for the best odds if betting Larson to win.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (+750) - In 10 Michigan Cup starts he has a 7.7 average finish, which is best among active drivers. He's only had two top-five finishes in the eight races using the high downforce package and the last one was a runner-up at Charlotte in late May, which is the last time Larson won with this package.

4 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - This is the bet I'm most excited about this week after two weeks of inactivity due to the Olympics taking over NBC and two weeks of dreadful road course racing. His last start using the high downforce package was at Atlanta, where he finished fourth and was the top Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Before that he was seventh at Pocono after leading 18 laps, and before that he won at Pocono leading 16 laps.

5 #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He's from Michigan, so he should have an edge, right? No, he's had a few heartache losses there, but no wins in 23 Cup starts. Last season he was runner-up in the Saturday race (two races, same weekend). He has seven top-fives at Michigan overall. I'll be betting him in a few driver matchups because he's been very competitive with this week's race package. He was third at Pocono after leading a race-high 31 laps. He was runner-up in the non-points All-Star Race at Texas, and he was runner-up at Las Vegas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy WNBA -24.1u (30-31-2)

4 units MIN -2 vs CHI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

3* Barcelona -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

3* Giants -110

[dawggy]

Oskeim


MLB 3* RedSox R/L

NFLX 2* RAMS


NFLX 2* SEAHAWKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

3* Indians -125

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Vernon Croy

3* Lions +6.5

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Doc's Sports

5* Westwood +100 Over Tringale Round 3
4* Lyon -150
4* Barcelona -115