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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, August 25, 2021
August 25, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Uncle Skeets; 3-Rudy Rod; 5-No Burn
Forecast: There are too many question marks in the Wednesday opener to have a solid opinion in this maiden $20,000 main track sprint for older horses. Tread lightly. Rudy Rod shows a decided edge in the speed figure department and on paper beats this field, but the R. Rodriguez-trained gelding is being wheeled back in three days off a hard race when second at 6/5, so it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll react to the short turnaround. It should be noted that this race was drawn last Friday, two days before ‘Rod drew in on Sunday as a main track only entrant in what turned out to be an off-the-turf race. So maybe he won’t run today. Uncle Skeets, a good runner-up in his debut but away since then for nearly 20 months, returns in a bottom-rung maiden claimer, so his connections obviously aren’t looking long term with him. The K. Breen-trained son of Khozan ships in from Monmouth Park as a first-time gelding for a barn that has good stats with layoff runners and picks up the stable’s “go to” rider, J. Ortiz, so the evidence suggests he’s a live item. The work tab is slow and sketchy but that may be by design. Suffice to say, we’re guessing. No Burn displayed speed going long on grass before fading vs. tougher in his first two career starts. Today, he’s sprinting on dirt. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two, but that’s all.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Casalsa; 4-Forest Spirit
Forecast: Forest Spirit was nosed out in a slightly softer spot last month when earning a career top Beyer speed figure, and nothing much more will be needed to win this restricted (nw-2) S25,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Perhaps most effective when held up early and allowed to finish late, the Freud gelding retains J. Rosario and should get the type of ride that he prefers. Casalsa, freshened since late June, invades from Gulfstream Park, where he finished a no-excuse runner-up in a restricted $20,000 affair in an effort that makes his reasonably competitive on this circuit. A local bullet gate drill (:35.1, fastest of 10) four days ago is a positive sign, so with L. Saez taking the call we’ll give the P. Walder-trained gelding some consideration at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Pocket Square
Forecast: We’re handicapping this race under the assumption that it remains on turf. If not, we’ll pass. Pocket Square is listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite in this conditioned allowance turf event for fillies and mares after exiting a pair of Grade-1 events and owning a monumental edge over her four rivals in the speed figure department. The lightly-raced English-bred filly will handle any sort of give in the ground, as she was a Grade-3 winner in France over heavy going as a 2-year-old. This should be a confidence-building win for a lightly-raced filly who isn’t quite up to beating the best in North America but should have no difficulty handling this group.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Invaluable; 5-Timely Tradition; 8-Awesome Indra
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, but not with a high degree of confidence. Invaluable has been away since April after a pair of disappointing runs while dropping to her lowest level, so her condition is a question. The work tab shows significant gaps, but the barn is reasonably proficient with layoff types and “win rider” J. Ortiz returns, so we’ll make an educated guess and say she’s the one to catch and perhaps the one to beat. Awesome Indra is nicely drawn outside and projects to inherit a comfortable stalking position. She returns at her claim (and winning) level after earning a career top speed figure when a distant third in a much tougher first-level allowance sprint earlier this month, so with L. Saez staying aboard she should be a major player. Timely Tradition, first or second in 18 of 38 career starts, has seen better days but this return to the claiming ranks may help and she’s a two-time winner over the Saratoga main track, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Digital Future; 3-Partner’s Hope; 8-Cool Quest
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is switched to the main track, we suspect many of the entrants likely will remain in the field so most of the analysis will hold, but you should proceed with caution. Cool Quest exits a pair of fast, highly-rated races and could easily find this maiden field well within his capabilities. The son of Frosted adds blinkers, retains Johnny D., and has numbers that fit despite two speed/fade efforts that produced two off-the-board finishes by a combined 20 lengths. His work tab since raced looks healthy, so at 9/2 on the morning line there may be a bit of value to be found. Digital Future is the likely choice and one to beat despite missing at 3/5 when second vs. similar sprinting on grass at Belmont Park in late June. His numbers are okay, but no better than those assigned to Cool Quest, and at 6/5 on the morning line the C. Brown-trained surely will leave at a much shorter price than our top pick. Partner’s Hope, a $40,000 claim by L. Rice, picks up L. Saez, shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. Her main track numbers put her in the hunt, and she’s actually bred for turf, so at 8-1 on the morning line we have to use her.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Whatlovelookslike
Forecast: The known element in this New York-bred maiden turf router for juvenile fillies doesn’t impress, so let’s go with the promising Whatlovelookslike as a win play and rolling exotic single. A daughter of the prolific grass sire English Channel, the T. Pletcher-trained filly has done some good work in the morning while displaying athleticism and stamina in both her grass and main track drills, and after viewing her videos she appears to be fit enough to handle a distance ground first time out. Drawn comfortably inside and with I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call, the Stonewall Farm homebred should offer wagering value at or near her morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Power Up Paynter; 5-Binkster
Forecast: We’ll use two in this state-bred $25,000 claiming sprint for state-bred older horses, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Binkster shows up in a seller for the first time and seems properly spotted based on his recent speed figures. Winless in five career starts at Saratoga but in the frame in each of those outings, the R. Handal-trained gelding does his best work when allowed to stalk and pounce, similar to the style employed in his solid win at Monmouth Park two runs back. He was in a little steep when third of six last time out but still earned his usual number and a similar try against this group should be good enough. Power Up Paynter returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since he graduated in a maiden $40,000 sprint back in December of 2019. This will be his third start in his current form cycle, and it should be his best, especially if the track is dry and fast. The L. Rice-trained gelding is a late-running sprinter that depends on a quick-early pace to compliment his style; the race flow in this race projects to be sufficient.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Single: 5-Winter Pool
Forecast: Although he missed in a photo vs. similar as the favorite over this course and distance last time out, Winter Pool deserves another chance, this time hopefully over a dry track. The Curlin gelding shows rising speed figures in each of his four starts and probably won’t need to improve much to win this starter’s allowance affair. In a race that projects to be slowly run early, he’ll likely settle into a comfortable stalking spot and then have every chance to grind out a win. At 2-1 on the morning line – hopefully no lower – the C. Brown-trained 4-year-old is a win play and rolling exotic key.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Shamrocket; 4-Ajourneytofreedom
Forecast>: Shamrocket hits hard in these grass marathons and tackles a bit easier group today after finishing a willing third behind Cross Border in the Bowling Green S.-G2 last month. It’s of minor concern that his record over the local lawn is 4-0-0-3 but we’re expecting J. Rosario will have him along in time in this year’s renewal of the John’s Call S. Ajourneytofreedom, successful in a marathon turf here last month against a softer allowance field, earned a career top speed figure in victory, and while he doesn’t often win the son of Hard Spun usually offers a strong late bid and should at least hit the board for the always-potent M. Maker/T. Gaffalione tandem. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Shamrocket.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Kitten’s Romance; 11-My Candy Girl
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we’ll pass. My Candy Girl, freshened since May and arriving from Indiana Downs, joins the M. Maker barn, lands I. Ortiz, Jr., and looks extremely live and well-meant in this restricted (nw-3) inner turf $35,000 claimer for fillies and mares. Most effective as the controlling speed but able to stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates, the daughter of Twirling Candy isn’t guaranteed a great trip from the 11-hole, but she has numbers that can beat this field, so let’s hope she can get over, save some ground, get some cover, and be in a position to fire her best shot. Kitten’s Romance, in the frame in five of her last six starts, projects to settle into a second flight position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. The Florida invader is a fit on numbers and has run we’ll over the local lawn in the past. At 6-1 on the morning line she offers some value in rolling exotic play, so we’ll include her in our ticket while reserving the main punch for My Candy Girl.
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Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 8/24/21
August 25, 2021
From the Week Concluding August 22, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst
1 - The career past performance chart of Malathaat makes for a very impressive resume. Six wins from seven starts including last weekend’s Alabama S.-G1, with her only defeat occurring by a short head in the C.C.A. Oaks-G1. Earnings of more than $1.5 million. Three Grade-1 wins from her last four starts, an accomplishment that already has clinched an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old filly division with another month of summer and an entire fall of competition still remaining. Hall of Fame credentials, right?
But there is something about her – perhaps her good but certainly not over-the-moon speed figures, the lack of signature win over a signature rival, her grinding style, the smallish margins of her victories and the hard work required of them – that perplexes racing analysts. How good, really, is Malathaat? Yes, the best of her crop, for sure. But how does she stack up with the older fillies and mares that she will face in what now has been disclosed as her next start, the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 on the first Saturday in November at Del Mar?
My take? She will be dangerous. Very dangerous.
In a division that is led most certainly by Letruska – she a winner of five of her last six starts (with three triple-digit Beyer figures) – Malathaat still needs to improve to reach the top, but as a 3-year-old, and by Curlin, whose best runners almost always improve with age, the T. Pletcher-trained filly from A. P. Indy’s Frizette-G1 winning daughter Dreaming of Julia has every right to be better in November than she is in August. She’ll be fresh. She won’t be short. And in a race that in projecting ahead should have plenty of pace challengers, Malathaat will have every chance to do then what she did last Saturday.
2 – The victory by Tripoli in the Pacific Classic-G1 wasn’t surprising if for no other reason than the Southern California older male division has taken turns beating each other throughout the year, and apparently, last Saturday, it was his turn. Over a racetrack that was extremely kind to speed and the inside lanes, the 10-furlong main track event presented Tizamagician with a golden opportunity as the controlling speed, and as the field hit the midpoint of the far turn he appeared destined for victory. But when the R. Mandella-trained colt tried to put distance between himself and the stalkers, he couldn’t shrug off the ground-saving Tripoli, who simply overpowered his main foe enroute to his first ever stakes win and career top Beyer speed figure of 104.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 will be staged over this same track and distance, and Tripoli, a son of Kitten’s Joy who by rights shouldn’t even like dirt, now must be considered a legitimate threat, though at this stage he’s nowhere near Knicks Go on resume or speed figures, not to mention the John Gosden’s Mishriff, the Saudi Cup winner who has been described by his trainer as the “ideal mile and one-quarter horse.” But give Tripoli his due. He’s gotten better. Needs to do more, yes, but there’s still time.
3 – It was the fictional character Gloria Clemente (Rosie Perez) who said in White Men Can’t Jump, “sometimes when you win, you lose, and sometimes when you lose you win.” Not sure how high Rhetoric can jump but he would have needed to leap over both Forbidden Kingdom and Kamui to win the Saturday fourth race at Del Mar after being blocked, bumped, and shut off in the final sixteenth of the abbreviated sprint for maiden juveniles. Eventually, he passed the wire behind those two when missing by only half-length, so he lost, technically. The bettors lost, and, yes, they really lost, even though the Quality Road colt from terrific Grade-1 winner Hard Not to Like eventually was moved up to second. But you know who also lost but who really, really won? Trainer Bob Baffert, and the colt’s multi-ownership connections, because in defeat they came away knowing they had the best colt in the race, a colt who in no way shape or form wants to sprint, and a colt which, like most Baffert youngsters, seems certain to get better with every subsequent race and every added furlong.
Baffert can run him back vs. maidens over a mile, or he might just wait to stretch him out in the American Pharoah S.-G1 during the fall Santa Anita meeting and, assuming he wins (he will) use that race as a springboard to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. We’ve seen some nice 2-year-olds so far this summer, both at Del Mar and Saratoga. But if you’re talking “down the road,” my future bet goes to Rhetoric.
4 – The Weekly Wash from Saratoga – Trainer Wesley Ward had the Skidmore Stakes for 2-year-olds on Friday pretty much covered no matter what surface the race ended up being contested on. Kaufymaker was turf only, but when the race was switched to dirt, she came out, and her main track-only stable mate Averly Jane came in. The daughter of Midshipman didn’t waste any breath running alone, annihilating her foes by more than seven lengths in a rapid 1:03.79, earning a powerful 86 Beyer in the process. Now undefeated in three starts by a combined 19 lengths with wins on good, sloppy, and fast ground, she was a mere $35,000 yearling purchase bred by the University of Kentucky. Her bankroll has risen to $193,140. She will be earning more.
First place runaway maiden winner of the week goes to the debuting Todd Pletcher-trained colt My Prankster, who embarrassed what we thought was a good maiden field by 10 lengths on Saturday in 1:16.27. The Beyer speed figure was 92. Fast. A $600,000 Fasig-Tipton Select yearling purchase by Into Mischief, he’s a from My Wandy’s Girl, a champion race mare imported from Puerto Rico who won several good sprint stakes racing mostly on the Maryland circuit seven or eight years ago.
Second place runaway maiden winner of the week is Makin My Move, a John Kimmel-trained daughter of Carpe Diem who toyed with state bred fillies in the Friday second race, winning by more than 12 lengths in 1:10.92. The final time translates into 71 Beyer speed figure, which doesn’t make her Ruffian, but still is pretty good for two-year-old New York-bred filly. Carpe Diem has been on the soft side so far as a sire but Keeneland shoppers looking to spend in the teens could do worse.
5 – The weekly Wash from Del Mar– No trainer was colder than Phil D’Amato during the first two weeks of racing at Del Mar and no trainer has been hotter since at the seaside oval. D’Amato, best known for turning modest, inexpensive English and Irish imports into stakes performances (hello, Going Global), finally received the opportunity to train a fancy Kentucky-bred two-year-old and guess what, he can do that, too. Ain’t Easy, a $400,000 Keeneland yearling by Into Mischief from a young group-stakes placed Australian mare, received no wagering action despite the presence of Joel Rosario in the saddle and a 59 4/54 local gate drill. Fooled me. She settled in mid-pack early but then accelerated like a good filly to win by more than five lengths in 1:04.65 in the Saturday opener. Visually, she was better than her assigned 73 Beyer number, and while we know the Into Mischiefs can do anything, this filly’s female family is mostly quality speed, so it’ll be interesting to see how far she wants to go. We’re saying at least a mile, no problem.
Because he wears four bandages and has had to be stopped and started on a couple of times in the last 18 months, Mo Forza doesn’t really resonate as one of North America’s most durable (and best) turf milers, but his winning performance in the Del Mar Mile-G2 on Saturday in his first outing in almost 11 months was thoroughly gratifying to his owners, and trainer Peter Miller. A winner of this same race last year off a long layoff, the son of Uncle Mo now has captured seven of 13 career starts, and if he can get to the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 in November over this same course and distance in peak form, well, let’s just say the Europeans better not bring their second stringers.
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From the Week Concluding August 15, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst
1 - After Bolshoi Ballet flopped in the Saratoga Invitational Derby-G1 Aug. 7, winding up a no-excuse fourth at even money behind fellow Irish shipper, the 21-1 long shot State of Rest, the plausible explanation was that he had “Euro-bounced” after being so impressive in his previous cross-Atlantic foray when winning the Belmont Derby-G1 in early June. Had Bolshoi Ballet done what was expected and win again, there would have been fewer doubters that Santa Barbara, for the same connections, would be able to repeat her thoroughly dominating victory in her U.S. debut, the Belmont Oaks Invitational-G1, when she returned for the Beverly D. S.-G1 at Arlington Park on Saturday. Didn’t happen. Inside the furlong pole, Santa Barbara roared past Mean Mary (who had her chances greatly compromised after breaking through the gate prior to the start) to win as impressively as she had done at Belmont Park. The 3-year-old daughter of Camelot seems highly-likely to return to the States for a third time to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar.
Last week we opined that the late-developing War Like Goddess had become the best long distance North American based turf filly following her visually stunning victory in the Glens Falls S.-G2 at Saratoga. We’ll stick with that because the younger Santa Barbara technically isn’t North American based – she does her training at Aidan O’Brien’s yard in Ireland – but in a division that is often far less glamorous that some of the others, this impeding collision between these two exceptional fillies is something to really look forward to.
2 - What was Got Stormy doing in the Grade-1 Fourstardave Handicap, anyway? Yeah, she won it two years ago, but wasn’t she far past her prime, having finished off the board in three of her last four starts, with a low-rated Grade-3 victory against moderate fillies and mares sandwiched in between? Isn’t she better sprinting? That’s what we thought. That’s what many of the serious bettors believed, who let her go at 12-1. Glad to be wrong (preferred the runner-up Set Piece, who flew home but too late, I’ll live with it). Her winning 103 Beyer speed figure equaled the number she earned when second to Halladay in this race last year, so we can safely assume that the now 6-year-old mare, a winner of 12 races from 30 career starts while consistently facing the best males and females North America, really hasn’t lost too many steps after all, and that’s a credit to the newly enshrined Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who’s had her for all but her first two races.
She’ll face the boys again in the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 at Del Mar (she won the Matriarch S.-G1 there in 2019) but before that probably have a prep, maybe sprinting next month at Kentucky Downs. We’ll probably wind up trying to beat her again on Championship day in November but a big part of us will rooting for her, nonetheless.
3 - We don’t second guess the Southern California stewards very often. Actually, we almost always agree with their decisions. Not so with their ruling to disqualify Next Revolt from first to fourth in the Thursday fifth race at Del Mar. Under Flavian Prat, the gelding came over a half lane – okay, perhaps a bit more - entering the stretch on the already faltering Invictatatus, forcing that one to check and briefly steady. Invictatatus was never, ever, ever going to win or finish second (he wound up being beaten 10 lengths), but a case could be made that he may have been able to salvage third money, even though the incident happened more than a furlong before the wire. Next Revolt’s owners (that’s who I identify with) lost a winner’s purse of $16,800 while the handicappers (not me) who correctly tabbed the original first place finisher at 9/2 got nothing, not to mention the bettors who played the race correctly in rolling exotics and got knocked out, too.
Yes, Prat was careless, give him days (they did), but horse players should be part of the equation, too – and we’re not referring to the ones that got kissed in, but those who played the race properly and deserved to be rewarded. In these situations, you have to have your priorities in order. In adjudicating an inquiry or a foul claim, and it’s a close call, shouldn’t the judges consider who would be wronged the most? In this case, would it be the owner of the much-the-best original winner and those that correctly played him? Or the owner of the badly beaten “fouled” horse who lost $1,680 (the difference in purse money from third to fourth) and the show bettors who got $2.80 after their horse got moved up?
4 – The Weekly Wash from Saratoga: Sunday’s first race winner Silipo, a 2-year-old by Candy Ride making his debut for a $40,000 tag, did what was required in registering a more than three length win in a modest 1:06.13 and was claimed by Bruce Brown. In watching the gelding’s action, the old L.A. Ram split end Crazy Legs Hirsch suddenly popped into my mind. Wisconsin Badger fans are aware that Crazy Legs has been rated the 94th best player in NFL history by The Athletic. . .Street Vendor rallied from eighth to second into the teeth of slow splits in the Sunday second when debuting going long on the turf for Todd Pletcher. The Nyquist colt brought $500,000 as a yearling. He’s not worth it just yet. Soon, maybe. . .Really believed hot recent maiden winner Ducale would come right back on the raise in the Saturday eighth but the Twirling Candy colt flipped in the paddock and had to be scratched. If he’d run, it’s highly unlikely he would have challenged Speaker’s Corner. In his first start since beating Caddo River in a 2-year-old maiden race last October, the Street Sense colt returned better than he left for trainer Bill Mott, winning by more than five lengths in 1:22.29, which translates to a 101 Beyer Speed figure. He may be the late developing 3-year-old star we’ve been waiting for all summer.
Most of the time it's better to believe what you see, not what you read. Grade-1 winner Simply Ravishing, beaten more than 19 lengths as the favorite in the Ashland S.-G1 at Keeneland in her sophomore debut, returned in the Thursday third, the Saratoga Dew Handicap. The assistant trainer was quoted in the DRF about how ready she was, how terrific she had trained. We went to the xbtv.com website to watch one of her recent works. She looked awful. Dead on the board and not even favored, she wound up last of five, beaten 23 lengths, by Dancing Kiki. . .Two-year-old maidens who win at six furlongs on this track and go faster than 1:11 have done something noteworthy. Key Point, a New York-bred son of Into Mischief, ran 1:10.89 as a debut winner in the Thursday fifth, but didn’t really figure out what was required of him until the final sixteenth, at the which time he apparently realized the fastest way from point A to point B is a straight line. Yeah, we like his chances in state bred stakes, but his connections may have larger goals in mind.
5 – The Weekly Wash from Del Mar: The Steve Miyadi-trained Saul’s Call looked like he was worth the money when he blew out a juvenile maiden $50,000 field by more than six lengths on Sunday. At least one trainer thought so, but the claim was voided by the state veterinarian. Sometimes, it works the other way. Later that same day in the fourth race, Big Well was claimed for $20,000 but finished last. That claim was voided, too. . .Does anybody in California do better with European imports than trainer Phil D’Amato? Keep in mind that these aren’t proven stakes winners he’s getting, more like modest handicappers. His 2-year-old filly Helen’s Well had a prior run earlier this year at some track called Rosscommon in Ireland (she finished fourth), made her U.S. debut in the Saturday fifth, and after walking out of the gate rallied with purpose to score as miles best like a filly who’ll certainly return in stakes company next time out.
While we’re on the subject of juvenile fillies running long on the lawn, you can never be sure what you’ll see in a maiden California-bred event. Most of the time you won’t see much. Not so in the Thursday fourth race when Dendera and Eleuthera left the others far behind, with the latter particularly impressive in her second place finish in her debut for trainer Ben Cecil. The Square Eddie filly was given far too much to do in a poorly timed ride but finished full of run to be a distant second while preserving her maiden status that will provide additional experience next time, assuming, of course, they run her back vs. maidens. She’s owned by Paul Reddam. . .Claim of the week was made by Ryan Hanson, who took English-bred gelding Barristan The Bold on the big class drop for $32,000 from Friday’s second race. Finished third, should have galloped.
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Gulfstream Stats: Gonzalez Hits .500
August 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.
Headlines
A $289,210 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover welcomes horseplayers back Friday for the 3-day racing week, featuring a $450,000-guaranteed pool … The second round of the annual Florida Sire Stakes will be featured Saturday with the $200,000 Affirmed and Susan’s Girl divisions challenging 2-year-olds over 7 furlongs … Dynamic One, defeated in 2 maiden races during the Championship Meet and most recently winner of Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes, is among the probables for Saturday’s Grade 1 Travers at the Spa for Todd Pletcher … Preakness and Pegasus World Cup-placed Jesus’ Team will be sidelined 90 days with an ankle chip … Renovations continue on schedule for a new, third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September.
Stronach 5
The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.
1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:
Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each showing a 30% win rate or higher.
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Best Speed Last 3
Jockey Current Year
Trends Last Week
-- Trainer Carlos David had a 6: 2-2-0 week that was topped by a $9 winner. All 4 of his exacta finishers had different riders.
-- Trainer Joe Orseno went 7: 2-1-1 and produced a $1.99 ROI for every $1 bet behind $8 and $19 winners. He also had a 31-1 shot light the bottom of the trifecta.
-- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa went 1-for-2 on limited strikes, but increased his record to 12-for-21 in the exacta (6 wins) since July 30.
-- Jockey Edgard Zayas was on point at 23: 6-2-4 with a $1.22 ROI for every $1 bet. He won for 5 different trainers, doubling up with Saffie Joseph Jr. from 5 tandem bids.
-- Jockey Edwin Gonzalez made the most of limited attempts with an 8: 4-0-0 record that flexed with $6, $8, $11 and $15 triumphs. He won for 4 different barns.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #3
Arlington - Race #5
Picks Notes #7 English I rarely take these career maiden types, but she has been in decent form this year and ran okay in some local starts here last year while facing better. Her best stuff might do at a square price. #2 Lizqueenfluerdelis Something like her last looks competitive, but I wouldn't really trust her to run back to it, even while dropping in class for this at a much shorter price this time around. #5 Ready at Midnight Finisher is another who has had some chances, but most of her starts have come with better company than she's going to find in this spot. Capable, but she might be overbet. Race Summary English is worth a look while getting back around two turns on the turf for the first time since last fall, and she proved a good fit at the local level in that last one.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 He's Wild Sire Three Hour Nap is typically a bit better on the dirt, but it's encouraging that he steps up into a protected spot while racing off the layoff. Thinking he can come forward here. #5 Dastardly Deeds He wasn't able to get the job done at 6/5 in the debut run, but he's very well bred for an Illinois foal, and he looks like the clear one to beat while moving to the turf for this second start. #11 B G Attack He was a no-show when bet to 2/1 in the local debut, but he has since turned in a sharp work and now moves to the grass for the first time. Price will be better today. Race Summary He's Wild should offer a nicer number than he has through his first two starts, and he showed some finishing ability in that last one that might be useful in this turf dash.
Picks Notes #1 Rapid Transit Mid-range price player might get the right kind of setup in the finale. There isn't a ton of serious pace, but the forward players may spend enough time jockeying for position to set things up for someone to settle and finish. #3 Zandrea's The barn has had a really nice season so far, and this filly has been super reliable in the underneath spots. Seems like a good one to count on to show up in the vertical gimmicks. #10 Texas Rain She moves back into straight claiming company while trying turf for the first time, and her tactical pace should leave her in a spot to have every chance turning for home if she handles the new footing. Race Summary Rapid Transit might be the right one to use with some of the logical players in the finale, and even #6 Windy City Girl and #9 Smack should probably be somewhere on the deeper tickets.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2
Hoosier Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #2 TAPPED TEEN Time away the concern, but should handle this field on his best. #7 COMANCHE CREEK Ran 1-2-3 in August at Harrah's under these conditions. #8 TYRONSBITOFLEMON N Good record in New Zealand, distant third in qualifier. Race Summary Tapped Teen broke stride two back, then was scratched sick a month ago, but if he runs back to his mid-July race at this level, he is the one to beat. He held his ground through a :27 third quarter and ran second behind the 1-to-2 winner in 1:50.4. Play 2/7,8/ALL trifecta.
Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes #5 HIGH INTENSITY Blocked throughout in last start, could prove best of bad bunch if he stays flat. #6 FOX VALLEY BRITZKA Good try after sick absence, two wins this year look good in here. #1 HIGHLY ACCLAIMED Trailed most of way as pace slowed, finished wide and willing on own courage. Race Summary In his last four starts, High Intensity finished a troubled third, then ran second, then was blocked 3-deep on the rail in a five-horse field. Give him the nod in a weak field and play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.
Picks Notes #5 MAGIC CREDIT CARD Willing pursuit of stakes favorites, back with own kind. #3 FILLY NAMED PETE Changed to front-end tactics, failed at odds-on in last pair. #7 ROSE RUN WHITNEY Gunned down the 2-1 pace setter from the pocket at Scioto. Race Summary Magic Credit Card tracked the pocketed, 2-to-5 stakes winner, appeared to lose contact with the top pair midway on the final turn, but fought back gamely on the inside in the stretch. Her versatility comes in handy in this spot and she is the one to beat. Play 5-3 and 5-7 exactas.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Saratoga - Race #4
Saratoga - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Luann Won at Monmouth last out and she's not up against a strong field here; has taken three of four starts and trainer Breen has a win and a second in his two off the claim. Might not get the support it looks like she deserves. #3 Invaluable Drops out of stronger optional claiming races and can show her speed today. #1 Flat Awesome Jenny Goes for her third straight claiming win and was claimed by Wilkes last out; shortens slightly from her latest, which was seven furlongs. Race Summary Luann moves over from Monmouth has been impressive in her steps up the class ladder; has won on the lead and from far back, and she'll adjust accordingly.
Saratoga - Race #9
Picks Notes #2 Tiz Rye Time Was fourth under these conditions last time and had a tough, wide trip; gets a better post and can maneuver through traffic for the win. #4 Hombrazo Was fifth vs. similar last time in his first over the strip and improve in his return. #5 Winter Pool Lost my a neck vs. similar last out and has been right there in his last three. Race Summary Tiz Rye Time likely will get a better run it this time and looks like the one to hold off going this nine-furlong distance.
Picks Notes #4 Ajourneytofreedom Closed well off slow fractions and was up in time going 1.5 miles last out; gets more ground and can grind it out under Gaffalione. #3 Shamrocket Was third in the G2 Bowling Green last out and has been on the board in his last three; has a good closing move and looks fit for the distance. #1 Red Knight Was too late in his bid in the Bowling Green and looks like a natural at 1 5-8 miles; has been a steady closer most of the time and could be a price. Race Summary Ajourneytofreedom won despite chasing a pedestrian pace last out and has the talent to adjust to anything this one offers; Gaffalione riding as well as anyone right now.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
Saratoga - Race 9 Stakes • 1 5/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 116 • Purse: $120,000 • Post: 5:39P JOHN'S CALL S. - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A GRADED SWEEPSTAKE ON THE TURF IN 2021.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. RY'S THE GUY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FANTASIOSO (ARG): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MORETTI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHAMROCKET: H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RY'S THE GUY AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM FANTASIOSO (ARG) MORETTI SHAMROCKET
Line
Class
Speed
FigureRY'S THE GUY Front-runner MORETTI Stalker CONVICTION TRADE Stalker FANTASIOSO (ARG) Trailer SHAMROCKET Trailer RED KNIGHT Trailer AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM Trailer SERVE THE KING (GB) Trailer
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Evangeline Downs - Race #2 - Post: 6:17pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 85
Rating:
#2 SINGANDCRYINDUBAI (ML=9/5)
SINGANDCRYINDUBAI - Jockey hops right back atop after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good to see. I think Evangeline Downs players know a good thing when they see the jockey/handler tandem of Thornton and Broberg. Their win pct together has been good. Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this racer has strong pace. This racer earns a lot of cash per race. I believe he can add to the lifetime total in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FAST VERDICT (ML=2/1), #6 EASTSIDE BOY (ML=3/1), #4 ANTIETAM ROAD (ML=8/1),
FAST VERDICT - This horse hasn't shown much life in the last pair of events. Pedestrian speed fig last race out at Evangeline Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's race. EASTSIDE BOY - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. ANTIETAM ROAD - The addition of front wraps in the last race is usually a sign of weakening form.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SINGANDCRYINDUBAI - This steed looks good with such a big gap in the spread of the TrackMaster Power Rating between him and the second-rated horse.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #2 SINGANDCRYINDUBAI on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 2 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:2 with [3,6] with [1,3,4,6] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: 2 with [1,3,4,6] with [1,3,4,6] with [1,3,4,6] Total Cost: $24
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 91
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 25 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 25 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 1 MY BOY LOLLIPOP 8/1
# 4 PAPA RIZZO 10/1
# 5 MESA SKYLINE 10/1
MY BOY LOLLIPOP has a decent shot to take this contest especially at 8/1. Cappellucci has one of the most favorable winning percentages in this group of horses with entries running at this distance and surface. Ran a strong last race. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Fuentes in the irons. PAPA RIZZO - Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying formidable figures recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 80 under similar conditions. MESA SKYLINE - Fuentes should be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in here. Had one of the best speed figures of this group of horses in this race in his last contest.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Arlington - Race #8 - Post: 6:04pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 89
Rating:
#1 RAPID TRANSIT (ML=6/1)
#3 ZANDREA'S (ML=5/1)
#9 SMACK (ML=4/1)
#2 NORTHERN ALLIANCE (ML=8/1)
#6 WINDY CITY GIRL (ML=6/1)
RAPID TRANSIT - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +118. 76-89-91 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here. ZANDREA'S - This campaigner coming off a strong try in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. PP lines show this horse with 3 improving speed figs. Tavares should be on a horse ready to go in this event. SMACK - This pony coming off a strong performance in the last 30 days is a contender in my opinion. If you review the PP's for this thoroughbred, you'll see she has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. This mount loves the track here at Arlington. NORTHERN ALLIANCE - Last time out, finished sixth on the soft turf at Arlington. Should do much better in this race. Trainer Rodriguez moves this one down the class ladder to face much lower class horses. Look for a good race this time out. Look at this pattern of improvement. 60/78/90 are the last 3 speed figs. WINDY CITY GIRL - This jockey and handler have a fabulous winning percent when they unite. Horses out of the barn of Rivelli have been solid on the turf. Should do well in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 TEXAS RAIN (ML=7/2),
TEXAS RAIN - Difficult to take this less than sharp equine at the odds after the finish position (third) in the last event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #1 RAPID TRANSIT on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:[1,3,9] with [1,2,3,6,9] with [1,2,3,6,9] Total Cost: $36 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,3] with [1,3,9] with [1,2,3,6,9] with [1,2,3,6,9] Total Cost: $24
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
08/25/21, SAR, Race 10, 6.13 ET
08/25/21,SAR,10,1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1:39:00 CLAIMING. Purse $50,000. INNER TURF (UP TO $8,700 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $35,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void). (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 17.07, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 2 Kitten's Romance 6/1 Davis D Hennig Mark A. SF 95 32.63 1.47/$1 098.9312 11 My Candy Girl 7/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Maker Michael J. J 95 32.63 1.47/$1 098.6290 12 Alba's Star 12/1 Lezcano J Kantarmaci Mertkan EL 95 32.63 1.47/$1 098.4901 8 Mia Bea Star 20/1 Cancel E Noda Orlando 95 32.63 1.47/$1 098.0812 5 Jazzy Lady 9/2 Ortiz J L Maker Michael J. C 95 32.63 1.47/$1 097.7831 9 Joqular 8/1 Castellano J Rice Linda 17 35.29 1.56/$1 097.4532 7 Giggle Factory 12/1 Alvarado J Albertrani Thomas 95 32.63 1.47/$1 097.4149 10 Come Storming 6/1 Rosario J Klesaris Steve 95 32.63 1.47/$1 096.6195 1 Unicorn Sally 12/1 Saez L Kimmel John C. 95 32.63 1.47/$1 096.1100 3 Two Cent Tootsie 10/1 Franco M Albertrani Thomas 95 32.63 1.47/$1 096.0615 14 Courageous Girl 5/2 Ortiz J L DePaz Horacio T 95 32.63 1.47/$1 095.2391 4 Seeking Revenge 20/1 Torres J Stephens John D. W 95 32.63 1.47/$1 092.9960 6 Wicked Amber 15/1 Hernandez B Persaud Randi 95 32.63 1.47/$1 092.7601 13 Sky Kitten 30/1 Rodriguez Castro L A Persaud Randi 95 32.63 1.47/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.0688
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Horse Not Age 3
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 39.24, ROI 1.10/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 11 My Candy Girl 7/2 Ortiz. Jr. I Maker Michael J. J 83 26.51 1.57/$1 099.0680 12 Alba's Star 12/1 Lezcano J Kantarmaci Mertkan L 83 26.51 1.57/$1 097.8141 14 Courageous Girl 5/2 Ortiz J L DePaz Horacio TE 83 26.51 1.57/$1 097.5892 2 Kitten's Romance 6/1 Davis D Hennig Mark A. 83 26.51 1.57/$1 097.3907 9 Joqular 8/1 Castellano J Rice Linda F 83 26.51 1.57/$1 097.1105 10 Come Storming 6/1 Rosario J Klesaris Steve 83 26.51 1.57/$1 097.0363 3 Two Cent Tootsie 10/1 Franco M Albertrani Thomas 83 26.51 1.57/$1 096.5059 5 Jazzy Lady 9/2 Ortiz J L Maker Michael J. WC 83 26.51 1.57/$1 095.7050 7 Giggle Factory 12/1 Alvarado J Albertrani Thomas 83 26.51 1.57/$1 094.9604 8 Mia Bea Star 20/1 Cancel E Noda Orlando 83 26.51 1.57/$1 093.2161 1 Unicorn Sally 12/1 Saez L Kimmel John C. 83 26.51 1.57/$1 093.0136 13 Sky Kitten 30/1 Rodriguez Castro L A Persaud Randi 83 26.51 1.57/$1 092.5982 6 Wicked Amber 15/1 Hernandez B Persaud Randi S 83 26.51 1.57/$1 091.5459 4 Seeking Revenge 20/1 Torres J Stephens John D. 83 26.51 1.57/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.9320
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Trainer Dirt YTD_Curr*1.5 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition
1. Doc's Picks MLB Astros over 8.5 0-2 (-225) 6-1 (+445) 2. Top Rank Sports Picks MLB Reds +1.5 -135 0-2 (-220) 4-1 (+290) 3. The Sports Consensus 2-0 (+200) 4-2 (+180) 4. Elite Sports Picks MLB St. Louis -130 0-2 (-245) 4-2 (+180) 5. Primetime Sports Picks MLB Toronto -120 0-1 (-115) 4-2 (+145) 6. Insider Sports Report 2-0 (+215) 4-3 (+85) 7. Profit On Sports MLB St. Louis -130 1-0 (+120) 2-2 (-10) 8. National Sports Service MLB Detroit under 9.5 0-1 (-110) 2-2 (-20) 9. The Spot Player MLB Dodgers -140 1-1 (-65) 2-3 (-200) 10. Joe Wiz MLB Mets -115 1-1 (-10) 2-4 (-390)
Tys Terrific Tips MLB LOS ANGELES DODGERS ‑135 1 1 -10 Ace / Sleeper Selections No pick yet 0 1 -110 Mikey Sports No pick yet 0 1 -110 Winning Cappers No pick yet 0 1 -125 FURBOOKIE MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 1 1 -160 Joe Wiz MLB TORONTO BLUE JAYS ‑120 0 2 -220 Assassin Sports Betting MLB LOS ANGELES ANGELS ‑195 0 1 -235 The Money Team Wins Sports MLB DETROIT TIGERS +105 o9.5 0 2 -240 GreenTreeSports No pick yet 0 2 -240 Tommy King Wins MLB LOS ANGELES DODGERS ‑140 0 2 -280 Pure Lock MLB LOS ANGELES ANGELS ‑1.5 ‑145 0 0 0
Tony Finn
Event: (925) Tampa Bay Rays at (926) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +135 Action
The AL East Tampa Bay Rays are in Pennsylvania for the second of a two-game Interleague series against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Rays announced that Ryan Yarbrough would get the starting nod. This is not a trustworthy schedule as the Rays could well throw a bullpen soldier to the hill for the first inning and piggyback Yarbrough thereafter. If you push an investment across the sportsbook counter in this contest, you might want to choose action instead of listing pitchers.
The Phils give the ball to Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler for tonight's start. Wheeler damaged his Cy chances by allowing six runs in 6.2 innings against the soft lineup of the Diamondbacks in his last turn. Yarbrough was flawless in his previous outing, tossing five shutout innings against the Orioles.
Philly is back home after a disastrous six-game road trip in which they won just two. The six-game trek was as favorable a matchup as they have had all season and the Phils once again failed in Game 1 of this series against the Rays, dropping Tuesday's event by a 3-1 final. Wheeler and the Phils rinse and repeat Tuesday's performance and lose to Yarbrough and the Rays tonight.
Marco D'Angelo
Event: (917) Chicago White Sox at (918) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: 1H Toronto Blue Jays -120 L Giolito (RHP), R Ray (LHP) Must Start
FREE PLAY: TORONTO 1st 5 Inning Wager
This play is all about Toronto starter Robbie Ray. In his last 5 starts he’s allowed just 6 total runs. By taking this play for 1st 5 innings we are taking the bullpens out of the equation.
TAKE TORONTO 1st 5 Inning Wager
Ralph Michaels
Event: (919) Minnesota Twins at (920) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Boston Red Sox -172 B Ober (RHP), N Pivetta (RHP) Must Start
Bobby Ligs
Event: (905) Washington Nationals at (906) Miami Marlins
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 8.0 (-110) J Gray (RHP), E Cabrera (RHP) Must Start
Andy Lang
Event: (919) Minnesota Twins at (920) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 Bases
Polanco has gone over 1.5 total bases in 6 out of his last 7 games including hitting home runs in his past two games. He's a right handed batter, but hits righties better than lefties including Pivetta who he faces today. He's 3 for 3 against him with a home run and a triple. The Red Sox bullpen has been bad recently, so he'll have good opportunities late in the game against a bad bullpen. He's batting 3rd at a hitter friendly park giving him more chances at the plate.
Bryan Leonard
Event: (907) San Francisco Giants at (908) New York Mets
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 25, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: San Francisco Giants +111 J Cueto (RHP), T Walker (RHP) Must Start
907 San Francisco at NY Mets
Listed Cueto & Walker
PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
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