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Travers Horse-by-Horse Analysis & Selections
August 26, 2021 | By Johnny D
It’s that time of the year. The car’s packed—shirts, shorts, sandals and golf clubs. Travers week. In my book second only to Thanksgiving weekend. My pal and I are headed north on our yearly Spa sojourn for what seems like the 20th time in the last 20 years. Can’t recall, the exact number. Wife tells me it’s only been 17. She’s almost always right. What do I know? Each year my buddy and I scan the names of previous Travers winners playing the ‘remember that one’ game until we cry ‘uncle’ around Unshaded in 2000. Close enough.
Winston Churchill once noted, “There’s something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” He’s right. And, if you mix in a few early morning rounds of golf, good food, several bottles of wine, and a gallon or so of spring water, by the time the weekend’s over, you’ll have completely revitalized individual.
Know what else is good for the inside of a man? Cashing tickets. Unfortunately, on that note, numerous Spa excursions haven’t been all rainbows and potato chips—the latter invented in Saratoga Springs in 1853, allegedly. More than once yours truly has shuffled from beneath red and white awnings toward the parking lot to the sound of Billy Joel’s New York State of Mind with blood on his shoes; absolutely gutted by a weekend’s worth of past-performance misinterpretations. In such cases, it takes until the car reaches 87 South before discussions regarding next season’s Spa trip begin. In other words, not very long at all.
Below is one man’s horse-by-horse analysis of the Gr. 1 Travers field. Hopefully, on the way out of the track Saturday, we’ll agree that in addition to the outside of a horse, ‘there’s something about cashing a Travers ticket that’s also good for the inside of a man.’
Analysis and selections are made before scratches and changes and are for a ‘fast’ track.
#Post Horse Trainer /Jockey Morning Line Odds
#1 Midnight Bourbon Asmussen/Santana 9-2
This son of Tiznow averted certain disaster when he nearly fell in the Gr. 1 Haskell stretch following interference by Hot Rod Charlie and jockey Flavien Prat. To this colt’s credit, he managed to avoid completely going down, but he did lose jockey Paco Lopez in the severe stumble. Obviously, whatever scrapes he may have incurred in the incident were minor because trainer Steve Asmussen, a cautious sort, has him entered right back here in the Travers. Asmussen’s regular rider Ricardo Santana is up Saturday and it’s interesting to note that the jock has never ridden this guy. Before the Gr. 1 Haskell, where unmolested he probably would have finished third to Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie, he was second in the Gr. 1 Preakness Stakes behind Rombaur and sixth in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby. Second in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby, third in the Gr. 2 Risen Star and winner of the Gr. 3 Lecomte, he’s a ‘there or thereabouts’ sophomore performer who likes to set or force the early pace. Another in-the-money finish seems most likely.
#2 Essential Quality Cox/Saez 4-5
It’s sort of a good news/bad news situation when your horse is 4-5 morning-line odds to win the Grade 1 Travers, a race billed as the Mid-Summer Derby, at a track known as the ‘Graveyard of Champions.’ Winner of the Gr. 2 Jim Dandy last out, the nation’s top-ranked sophomore returns to the Spa after scoring by a mere half-length over #3 Keepmeinmind. He’s now won 7 out of 8 and over $3.5 million. The only blemish on his record came in the Kentucky Derby when fourth, beaten one length, after a wide trip. He’s not flashy, so he doesn’t seem to attract the level of affection he probably deserves. He was voted the 2-Year-Old Champion of last season, so there’s that, but his workmanlike victories haven’t inspired fanaticism among supporters. That said, he wins, and he’ll be a short price to do so again in the Travers. He’s been successful while racing close to the early pace and also in mid-pack, so it doesn’t seem to matter to him or to the Spa’s current leading jockey Luis Saez where they are until turning for home. This inside post position could be a minor concern but it’s a small field so one assumes Saez can work out a trip around foes at some point. Essential Quality attempts to become the first Jim Dandy/Travers parlay winner in 9 years.
#3 Keepmeinmind Diodoro/Rosario 6-1
We’ve been chasing this one since the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby, where he finished a closing, well beaten seventh, whipped more than 8 lengths at 49-1. We used him extensively in the Gr. 1 Preakness where he managed a distant fourth at 14-1. Slow breaks were part of the problem in both of those efforts when he was left with way too much to do. Blinkers were re-added and he raced first-time Lasix in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby to just miss when third, beaten one-half length at 7-2 odds. Last out, with a rider change to Joel Rosario, he finished second to Travers favorite #2 Essential Quality by a mere one-half length. Could it finally be time for this Gr. 2 winner at 2 to win a Gr. 1 at 3? We think he’s got a legit chance at a place known as the ‘Graveyard of Champions.’ The one-mile and one-quarter distance certainly is up his alley and jockey Rosario got to know him last time. Look for a huge effort from this long overdue runner.
#4 Dynamic One Pletcher/Irad Ortiz 6-1
In his fourth maiden start this son of Union Rags relished one mile and one-eighth at Aqueduct and romped by more than 5 lengths. Ambitiously next pitched in the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial by trainer Todd Pletcher, this colt was nailed by stablemate Bourbonic on the wire. Dynamic One didn’t fire in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby and was rested until the Spa. Last out, on July 30, he proved best in the restricted Curlin Stakes over #5 Miles D. In that victory he earned an outstanding Beyer Speed Figure that fits in here. It’s clear he loves the Spa surface and can handle a distance. Trainer Pletcher is great at developing these types of runners. While he would be a surprise on the ‘win’ end, an in the money finish isn’t out of the question.
#5 Miles D Brown/Prat 12-1
With just 3 lifetime starts this son of Curlin is spotting foes significant experience. Miles D broke maiden two back and then rallied for second, nearly 2 lengths behind #4 Dynamic One, in the restricted Curlin. This is a significant step up in class and he’ll need to move forward a bit in the Beyer Speed Figure department. The colt also loses the services of Joel Rosario but has a capable replacement in top SoCal jock Prat. This guy has ability, no doubt, but he may be being rushed a bit in here.
#6 Masqueparade Stall/Mena 8-1
Winner of the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby by one half-length over #7 King Fury and #3 Keepmeinmind, Masqueparade was third behind #2 Essential Quality and #3 Keepmeinmind in the Gr. 2 Jim Dandy. He took 4 races to break maiden and did so via disqualification. Since then he romped by more than 11 in an allowance race at Churchill and took the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby. His last 2 wins came as a result of sweeping moves at one mile and one-eighth. He’s a son of Upstart and was purchased for $180k as a yearling. He was favored last out at around 5/2 but will be a bigger price in this deeper field.
#7 King Fury McPeek/Jose Ortiz 15-1
This late-running son of Curlin has faced graded stakes foes in 6 of his last 7 races, so he’s seen some of the best of his generation. His biggest claim to fame is an 18-1 upset of the Gr. 3 Lexington in April. He also was second to #6 Masqueparade in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby. He’s been outrun by #2 Essential Quality and #3 Keepmeinmind twice each. It should be noted that he finished a head in front of #3 Keepmeinmind in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby. Horseplayers can toss this guy’s last start in the Saratoga Derby Invitational on grass because trainer McPeek’s horses had been in quarantine and unable to run elsewhere. This colt would appreciate a hot early pace to facilitate his closing charge.
Bottom Line:
#2 Essential Quality is the best of these on paper and deserves to be favored. However, funny things happen at Saratoga and this could be spot where horseplayers may want to take a shot at beating the public choice. #3 Keepmeinmind has been solid recently and the switch to Rosario should help matters. They just missed beating the favorite last out and at 6-1 this guy’s worth a shot. Other in-the-money chances belong to #1 Midnight Bourbon and #4 Dynamic One.
The Plays ($32 total):
$20 Win #3 ($20)
$2 Trifecta: #3 with #1, #2, #4 with #1, #2, #4 ($12)
Race On!
Jeremy Plonk: Travers Stakes Post Draw Reaction
August 25, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality tops the marquee for Saturday’s $1 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga, headlining a field of 7 that was drawn this morning. The once-beaten colt, who won the 2-year-old championship in 2020 and leads the 3-year-old chase to this point in 2021, was lined at 4-5 odds from post 2. Essential Quality could join Tiz the Law as back-to-back winners of both the Belmont and Travers.
The Travers offers a 1-2-3 re-match from the July 31 Jim Dandy at the Spa. Essential Quality earned a half-length score over Keepmeinmind that day, with Masqueparade some 4 lengths behind the winner in third. Keepmeinmind (post 3) showed a bit more tactical ability in the Jim Dandy, while still last of five early. Masqueparade (post 6) is expected to be part of the Travers early pace, as he was last out.
Midnight Bourbon (post 1) looks to recover from a harrowing stretch incident when he was cut off, stumbled and fell in the Haskell. The Preakness runner-up figures to be on or near the lead Saturday, and could give all-time North American training wins leader Steve Asmussen his first Travers title. The early pace looks pretty defined with Masqueparade, Midnight Bourbon and Essential Quality in the mix throughout, trailed by four closers. With Midnight Bourbon and Essential Quality in the inside two posts, it’s likely they’ll just go early and make the race from there.
Deep-closing Dynamic One (post 4) steps back up in class off a victory in the Curlin on July 30 and will be reunited with jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. His trainer Todd Pletcher secured the Travers trophy in 2005 (Flower Alley) and 2011 (Stay Thirsty). Dynamic One re-matches with Curlin runner-up and fellow late-runner Miles D (post 5), who will be making only his fourth lifetime start on Saturday. Trainer Chad Brown has yet to win a Travers.
The field is rounded out by King Fury (post 7), who moves turf-to-dirt after a poor effort in the Belmont Invitational Derby. The Lexington winner at Keeneland is another deep closer.
For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Travers, check back at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com this week for insights from Eddie Olczyk, Jeff Siegel, Johnny D, John White and more.
Sararoga // Race 12 // Grade 1 Travers Stakes // 1-1/4 miles
1. Midnight Bourbon (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 9-2
2. Essential Quality (Luis Saez) 4-5
3. Keepmeinmind (Joel Rosario) 6-1
4. Dynamic One (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
5. Miles D (Flavien Prat) 12-1
6. Masqueparade (Miguel Mena) 8-1
7. King Fury (Jose Ortiz) 15-1
Jon White: 2021 Travers Picks | Saturday, August 28
August 25, 2021 | By Jon White
There are a number of parallels between Essential Quality and one of the all-time great Thoroughbreds in the history of American racing, Native Dancer.
As shown below, Native Dancer ranks high on my list of the Top 25 Racehorses of the 20th and 21st Centuries to have raced in North America:
1. Man o’ War
2. Secretariat*
3. Citation*
4. Kelso
5. Spectacular Bid
6. Native Dancer
7. Dr. Fager
8. Seattle Slew*
9. Count Fleet*
10. Affirmed*
11. Ruffian
12. Swaps
13. Phar Lap
14. Forego
15. American Pharoah*
16. Buckpasser
17. Damascus
18. Round Table
19. Seabiscuit
20. War Admiral*
21. Tom Fool
22. Colin
23. John Henry
24. Zenyatta
25. Regret
*Triple Crown winner.
In 1952, Native Dancer was an undefeated 2-year-old male champion. Ditto Essential Quality in 2020.
In 1953, Native Dancer lost only once going into the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Ditto Essential Quality in 2021.
Native Dancer’s only defeat prior to the Travers had come in the Kentucky Derby. Going into this Saturday’s running of the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers, Essential Quality’s lone defeat likewise came in the Run for the Roses.
In yet another similarity between Essential Quality and Native Dancer, a case can be made that they were the best horse in the race when not winning the Kentucky Derby as the favorite.
Native Dancer lost the 1953 Kentucky Derby by just a head when he finished second. The winner was 24-1 Dark Star.
This is from the 1953 Kentucky Derby chart: “NATIVE DANCER, roughed at the first turn by MONEY BROKER, was eased back to secure racing room, raced wide during the run to the upper turn, then saved ground entering the stretch and finished strongly, but could not overtake the winner, although probably best.”
Essential Quality lost the 2021 Kentucky Derby by one length when he finished fourth. First across the finish line was 12-1 Medina Spirit.
According to Trakus, Essential Quality traveled 68 feet (approximately seven to eight lengths) farther than Medina Spirit.
Brad Cox trains Essential Quality. After the Kentucky Derby, Cox gave credit to Medina Spirit for his victory, calling it a “huge, huge performance” on his part to go as fast as he did early, then keep going and win.
But when Cox then was asked if he believed that Essential Quality might have been the best horse in the race because of his wide trip, the trainer was quick to respond.
“I do,” Cox said. “I think he was the best horse. People can say what they want, but he was beaten a length and ran 68 feet further than the winner.”
In my Kentucky Derby recap for Xpressbet.com, I speculated that Essential Quality would be “the Kentucky Derby starter who quite possibly will emerge from the race with the best Thoro-Graph number.”
When it comes to Thoro-Graph, a lower number is better than a higher one. This is the opposite of Beyer Speed Figures.
Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
Medina Spirit received a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby win. Essential Quality’s Beyer for that race was a 100, also his top figure until he posted a 109 when he won the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles by 1 1/4 lengths as a 13-10 favorite on June 5.
It turned out that Essential Quality did indeed get a better Thoro-Graph number in the Kentucky Derby than Medina Spirit. In fact, Essential Quality received the best Thoro-Graph number of all 19 Derby participants.
Below are the Thoro-Graph numbers for the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby:
Finish Horse (Thoro-Graph Number)
4. Essential Quality (negative 1/4)
3. Hot Rod Charlie (1/2)
2. Mandaloun (1 1/4)
1. Medina Spirit (1 1/2)
5. O Besos (3)
6. Midnight Bourbon (3)
7. Keepmeinmind (4)
Below are the Beyer Speed Figures for the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby:
Finish Horse (Beyer Speed Figure)
1. Medina Spirit (102)
2. Mandaloun (101)
3. Hot Rod Charlie (100)
4. Essential Quality (100)
5. O Besos (94)
6. Midnight Bourbon (90)
7. Keepmeinmind (90)
Essential Quality goes into the Travers off a half-length win in Saratoga’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes at 1 1/8 miles as the 2-5 favorite. His margin of victory is quite misleading in terms of his superiority that day because he raced so wide, somewhat similar to his trip in the Kentucky Derby.
According to Trakus, Essential Quality traveled 38 feet (approximately four lengths) farther than runner-up Keepmeinmind.
Odds-on favoritism is something else Essential Quality most likely is going to have in common with Native Dancer.
Sent away at 1-20 in the Travers, Native Dancer proved a punctual favorite when he registered a 5 1/2-length triumph.
My colleague David Aragona has established Essential Quality as the 4-5 favorite on the Travers morning line.
Will Essential Quality, like Native Diver, win the Travers? I think so. But whenever an important race is run at Saratoga, there is always a lingering concern that an odds-on favorite might lose at the “graveyard of favorites,” a la Man o’ War (who was upset by the aptly named Upset), Gallant Fox (Jim Dandy), Secretariat (Onion) and American Pharoah (Keen Ice).
Below are my Travers selections:
1. Essential Quality
2. Dynamic One
3. Keepmeinmind
4. King Fury
From the rail out, the Travers field consists of Midnight Bourbon (9-2 morning-line odds), Essential Quality (4-5), Keepmeinmind (6-1), Dynamic One (6-1), Miles D (121), Masqueparade (8-1) and King Fury (15-1).
Essential Quality has already defeated five of his six Travers foes once or more. He has never run against Miles D.
Cox has indicated Essential Quality has trained quite well for the Travers, which does not bode well for those opposing the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2020.
“He’s sharp, mentally,” Cox said Wednesday, according to NYRA communications. “He’s sharper for this race than going into the Jim Dandy. My plan all along was to have him peak in this spot. Our goal since the Kentucky Derby was to have him at his best Travers Day and from a mental and physical standpoint, I feel he’s right where we want him. I feel like he’s as good as he’s ever been.”
The way I see it, Dynamic One looms the biggest threat to the big Travers favorite. Yes, Dynamic One received little support in the wagering to the tune of 45-1 and finished 31 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in the Kentucky Derby. But I believe Dynamic One’s next race, a victory in Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes, makes him very dangerous this Saturday.
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has always held Dynamic One in high regard.
The Kentucky-bred Union Rags colt trailed early in the Curlin and rallied to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths. Dynamic One completed 1 1/8 miles on a wet track rated good in 1:49.36. The next day, Essential Quality won the Jim Dandy, which was contested on a fast track, in 1:49.92 for the same distance.
Keepmeinmind, trained by Robertino Diodoro, gave Essential Quality a run for his money in the Jim Dandy. Keepmeinmind finished a close second at odds of 9-1.
Can Keepmeinmind finally outrun Essential Quality this Saturday? They have met five times. Keepmeinmind has finished behind Essential Quality all five times.
I consider King Fury an intriguing Travers entrant at a morning-line price of 15-1. I think he could possibly hit the board or maybe -- just maybe -- even pull off an upset.
In Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington Stakes on April 10, King Fury roared home from 10 lengths off the pace to win by 2 3/4 lengths on a sloppy track for trainer Kenny McPeek. That was an especially impressive effort in that it was King Fury’s first start of the year.
King Fury then created quite a buzz going into the Kentucky Derby because of the splendid manner in which had trained. Unfortunately, after being entered in the 1 1/4-mile classic, King Fury was scratched due to spiking a fever.
After missing the Kentucky Derby, King Fury gave a good account of himself in the Grade III Ohio Derby at Thistledown on June 26. Masqueparade won the 1 1/8-mile affair by a half-length. King Fury nosed out Keepmeinmind for second.
McPeek had wanted to run King Fury in the Jim Dandy. However, McPeek was precluded from doing so as a consequence of a case of equine herpesvirus found in a horse stabled in the same barn as King Fury but not trained by McPeek.
As a Plan B, McPeek decided to try King Fury on the grass for the first time in the Grade I Saratoga Derby at 1 3/16 miles on Aug. 7. The Kentucky-bred Curlin colt finished 10th in the field of 11.
“The horse, unfortunately, didn’t get to run in the Jim Dandy,” McPeek said Wednesday. “He ran really well in the Ohio Derby. [I was] thinking the Jim Dandy would be a great prep for the Travers. In hindsight, I think we should have scratched [in the Saratoga Derby] because he drew the 11 [post] and [raced] wide and wider on both turns. I wish I could un-ring that bell, but that doesn’t happen. It’s a shame he didn’t get to run in the Jim Dandy, but it is what it is. We think he’ll perform well this weekend.”
McPeek said King Fury’s morning-line odds “surprised” him to be so high after King Fury “ran right with” Keepmeinmind and Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby.
“We split those two,” McPeek said, “and we really thought we could make a case that he should have won that day. He got shuffled back in the second turn and had to rally and still almost won the race. He’s a good colt and he’s going to make his presence felt [in the Travers].”
Perhaps I’m taking Midnight Bourbon more lightly than I should. He ran sixth after a troubled start in the Kentucky Derby, then finished second in the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15.
In the Grade I Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on July 17, Midnight Bourbon vied for the early lead. However, after passing the eighth pole during the stretch drive, Midnight Bourbon unseated Paco Lopez. Hot Rod Charlie finished first, then was disqualified for drifting in and causing Midnight Bourbon to clip heels and unseat his rider. The stewards elevated Mandaloun to first.
Not counting the Haskell, Midnight Bourbon has finished third or better in eight of nine starts. Talk about a gem of consistency. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains the Kentucky-bred colt by 2000 Horse of the Year Tiznow.
Masqueparade, trained by Al Stall Jr., romped to an 11 3/4-length win in a 1 1/8-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Churchill Downs on May 1. Off that dominant victory, I picked him to win the Ohio Derby, which he did as the 2-1 favorite.
Even though Masqueparade did not win the Jim Dandy, it’s not as if he ran a stinker. He lost by 2 3/4 lengths while finishing third. I think the Kentucky-bred Upstart colt still has some upside and could make some noise in the Travers.
With just three career starts under his belt, Miles D is by far the lightest in terms of experience among the Travers entrants. He does bring an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern of 77, 85 and 95 into Saturday’s race. The 95 came when he finished a respectable second in the Curlin.
Chad Brown trains Miles D. The Kentucky-bred Curlin colt showed enough in his most recent race to suggest cavalierly dismissing him in the Travers probably is not a good idea.
COX ATTEMPTS TO ACHIEVE RARE FEAT
If Essential Quality gets the job done this Saturday, Cox will become only the third trainer to win the Travers and Whitney Stakes in the same year with different horses.
The feat has not been accomplished since trainer John M. Gaver Sr. in 1942 won the Travers with Shut Out and the Whitney with Swing and Sway.
In 1931, trainer James Rowe Jr. won the Travers with Twenty Grand and the Whitney with St. Brideaux.
Cox sent out Knicks Go to win this year’s Whitney.
ESSENTIAL QUALITY’S SIRE MAKES NEWS
Tapit, the sire of Kentucky-bred Essential Quality, became the all-time leading North American sire by career progeny earnings last Sunday, according to Daily Racing Form’s Nicole Russo.
“Through Sunday, the career progeny earnings for Tapit, a 20-year-old son of Pulpit standing at Gainesway, stood at $172,904,804. That took him past Giant’s Causeway, who died in 2018, at $172,560,764.
HRONIS RACING & SADLER WIN THIRD PACIFIC CLASSIC
Tripoli, impeccably ridden by Tiago Pereira, came from just off the pace to win Del Mar’s Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic by 1 1/4 lengths last Saturday at odds of 6-1. Tizamagician, also off at 6-1, finished second. Dr Post, 7-2 in the wagering, came on to end up third in a rather weird trip in that he droppped back to last momentarily going into the far turn when it looked like he was going to run a clunker.
In Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on July 17, Express Train, Tripoli and Royal Ship finished close together. Express Train won by a half-length. Tripoli was the runner-up. Royal Ship finished third, three-quarters of a length behind Tripoli.
But these three horses did not finish close together in the Pacific Classic. Express Train finished sixth as the 2-1 favorite and my top pick. Royal Ship came in seventh as the 5-2 second choice.
Tripoli provided owners Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler a third Pacific Classic victory in the last four years. The same owner-trainer team took Del Mar’s signature race with Accelerate in 2018 and Higher Power in 2019.
Kitten’s Joy is the sire of Kentucky-bred Tripoli. Considering Kitten’s Joy was the Eclipse Award-winning turf male of 2004, it’s not surprising that Tripoli made his first 11 starts on the grass, winning twice.
However, since being switched to the dirt, Tripoli has improved significantly. His top Beyer Speed Figure on the turf was an 88. In three starts on the dirt, Tripoli has recorded Beyers of 100 twice and 104 in the Pacific Classic.
Notably, Tripoli became Kitten’s Joy’s first Grade I dirt winner.
Below are the Beyers for the Pacific Classic winners going back to the first running in 1991 (the figures prior to this year are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):
2021 Tripoli (104)
2020 Maximum Security (107)
2019 Higher Power (107)
2018 Accelerate (115)
2017 Collected (115)
2016 California Chrome (113)
2015 Beholder (114)
2014 Shared Belief (115)*
2013 Game On Dude (113)*
2012 Dullahan (111)*
2011 Acclamation (105)*
2010 Richard’s Kid (96)*
2009 Richard’s Kid (107)*
2008 Go Between (104)*
2007 Student Council (99)*
2006 Lava Man (109)
2005 Borrego (113)
2004 Pleasantly Perfect (112)
2003 Candy Ride (123)
2002 Came Home (116)
2001 Skimming (119)
2000 Skimming (118)
1999 General Challenge (119)
1998 Free House (117)
1997 Gentlemen (121)
1996 Dare and Go (116)
1995 Tinners Way (112)
1994 Tinners Way (111)
1993 Bertrando (117)
1992 Missionary Ridge (110)
1991 Best Pal (118)
*Run on synthetic footing.
The 2020 Pacific Classic turned out to be the final victory of Maximum Security’s career. He would go on to finish second in the Grade I Awesome Again Stakes and fifth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic before being retired to stud.
A QUESTION TO PONDER
Speaking of Maximum Security, one wonders which will happen first: The final purse distribution for the 2020 Saudi Cup or a human being sets foot on the planet Mars?
The inaugural running of the $20 million Saudi Cup was held on Feb. 29, 2020. As far as I know, there still has been no final purse distribution for that race, which was won by Maximum Security. Midnight Bisou finished second. Benbatl came in third.
“Final purse distribution from the 2020 Saudi Cup could come within six weeks, the head of the Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia said in the hours before this year’s running of the world’s richest race,” Bob Kieckhefer wrote in a BloodHorse story last Feb. 20.
“The minor awards from the 2020 Cup have been paid. But the $10 million winner’s share was frozen by Saudi officials pending the resolution of doping charges involving Jason Servis, who at the time trained the Luis Saez-ridden winner, Maximum Security.
“Maximum Security raced last year for owners Gary and Mary West and for the Coolmore Stud-affiliated Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith.
“Second across the finish line under Mike Smith in the Saudi Cup was Midnight Bisou, running for owners Bloom Racing Stable, Madaket Stables and Allen Racing and trainer Steve Asmussen.
“Jockey Club chairman Prince Bandar bin Khalid Al Faisal, interviewed by broadcaster Nick Luck on the international feed from the Feb. 20 renewal, said he hopes the wait is nearly over.”
Nearly over? It’s been six month months since Saudi Jockey Club chairman Prince Bandar bin Khalid Al Faisal said he hoped the wait was nearly over, yet the wait continues. I can’t help thinking there just might be a human walking around on Mars before the $10 million winner’s share of the 2020 Saudi Cup purse is finally paid out. Have the connections of any horse in the history of racing ever had to wait so long to find out whether or not they are going to get the winner’s share of a purse?
It’s beyond ridiculous.
DEL MAR SPILL COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE
There was a scary chain-reaction seven-horse spill in Del Mar’s seventh race last Sunday.
In a story written by Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, “none of the horses involved in the incident appeared to suffer injuries, according to a track official.”
Thank goodness for that.
Sassy Chassey, ridden by apprentice Diego Herrera, fell approaching the three-eighths pole due to clipping the heels of Katie’s Paradies, who was vying for the lead with Scream and Shout.
In the chain reaction, the following jockeys were unseated in addition to Herrera: apprentice Cesar Ortega (who rode Backtoflash), Kyle Frey (Whiskey Blue), apprentice Ellie Ellingwood (Siena Silk), Tyler Baze (Renegade Princess), Pereira (Phoenix Tears) and apprentice Juan Espinoza (Corners Up).
All of the riders involved in the incident reportedly escaped serious injury.
Again, thank goodness for that.
That chain-reaction incident could have turned out much, much worse in terms of the horses and riders involved.
Stewards Grant Baker, Luis Jauregui and Kim Sawyer properly declared the race a “no contest.” In making that decision, they cited a California Horse Racing Board rule that states “stewards may declare a race no contest if mechanical failure or interference during the running of the race affects the majority of horses in such race.”
Indeed, seven of the 12 horses competing in Del Mar’s seventh race last Sunday were affected by the incident.
What occurred in that Del Mar race demonstrated what easily could have happened on the far turn in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. I don’t think enough people get that.
The 2019 Run for the Roses is the race in which Maximum Security finished first by 1 3/4 lengths, but then was disqualified and placed 17th by the stewards. Maximum Security had his number taken down when the stewards ruled that he had drifted out and caused interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy on the far turn.
It was the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby that the winner has been disqualified for an incident during the running of the race.
As I recently wrote, having watched the video of that race numerous times, I believe it’s nothing less than a miracle that War of Will did not clip Maximum Security’s heels on the far turn. Horse racing was extremely lucky that Maximum Security did not trigger a major spill when he veered out and caused interference.
“If War of Will had tripped and fallen to unseat jockey Tyler Gaffalione, it would have happened with many horses racing behind them,” I wrote. “In all likelihood, there would have been a multi-horse spill similar to a horrific pile-up on a freeway. Numerous horses and jockeys could have been severely injured, or possibly even worse. No doubt such a grisly scene would have been shown over and over and over on television and depicted on social media, which would have given horse racing the blackest of black eyes during a very sensitive time in the sport.”
NEW YORK SHOULD HONOR SECRETARIAT
I wrote last week that a New York track should name a race in honor of Secretariat now that evidently there will be no more racing at Arlington Park. Arlington for years had run the Secretariat Stakes.
I implored the folks at the New York Racing Association to come up with a race named after Secretariat.
“And I am not talking about some minor stakes race,” I wrote. “New York should have an IMPORTANT race named after the 1973 Triple Crown winner.
“It actually makes more sense for New York rather than Arlington to have a Secretariat Stakes anyway. Secretariat made 15 of his 21 career starts at New York tracks. He raced at Arlington Park just once.”
My idea was to rename the Belmont Derby, a Grade I race at 1 1/4 miles on the grass, either the Secretariat Stakes or Secretariat Derby. After all, Secretariat was undefeated on the grass. In his two grass starts, he won the Man o’ War Stakes at Belmont Park and the Canadian International at Woodbine.
“Besides,” I wrote, “it makes a lot more sense to have a Secretariat Stakes or Secretariat Derby on the grass than a Man o’ War Stakes on the grass. That’s because Man o’ War never raced on the grass.”
In Monday’s Thoroughbred Daily News, Bill Finley noted that without a Secretariat Stakes at Arlington, “the sport no longer has a major race named in honor of the GOAT. That can’t be.”
Finley’s idea was to “rename the Belmont Stakes the Secretariat Stakes and to do so for the 2023 running, the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s historic 31-length romp in the Belmont.”
Finley then admitted, “Okay, that’s never going to happen.” But Finley went on to offer a suggestion that I do like.
“Limiting the list to races he won in New York, the best candidate is the Grade I Hopeful Stakes,” Finley wrote. “Secretariat won that in 1972, so next year’s running is the 50th anniversary of that win. Naming the race after the greatest horse ever to step foot on a New York track would be a fitting honor.”
While I do not agree with Finley’s assertion that Secretariat is the greatest horse ever to step foot on a New York track (I believe it is Man o’ War), I wholeheartedly agree with Finley’s suggestion to change the Hopeful to the Secretariat.
MALATHAAT BACK IN NTRA TOP 10
In the wake of her victory in last Saturday’s Grade I Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, Malathaat moved back into the Top 10 in the NTRA Top Thoroughred Poll this week after being tied for 20th in last week’s rankings.
Sent off as the heavy Alabama favorite at 1-2, Malathaat did not let her many backers down when she prevailed by 1 1/2 lengths on a wet main track listed as good.
Malathaat now has won six of seven lifetime starts. Her lone blemish came when she finished second on July 24 in Saratoga’s Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks, which she lost by a head. Maracuja, who won the CCA Oaks, finished seventh and last in the Alabama at odds of 6-1.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 359 Knicks Go (30)
2. 320 Letruska (5)
3. 271 Essential Quality (1)
4. 237 Maxfield
5. 156 Domestic Spending (1)
6. 135 Silver State
7. 90 Gamine
8. 85 Malathaat
9. 65 Hot Rod Charlie
10. 55 Shedaresthedevil
Last Chance for $20k-plus FITS Final Table Seats
August 25, 2021 | By Johnny D
Nelson Jaramillo topped all players in Week 6 Xpressbet Fun in the Sun competition with $272.50 in earnings. He collects $2,205 and a seat at the lucrative Final Table. Drew Kocsi finished second with $256.50, just $2 in front of Jon Lapczenski. They earn $981.75 and $551.25, respectively, plus shots at an over $20k pot on Sept. 4. Gregory Raab and Paul Lutz round out the top 5. Raab earns one of 35 total spots at the Final Table and Lutz joins David Jaffe, Ellis Starr and Paul Jones as multiple Final Table seat holders with a maximum of two each. Lutz previously finished fourth in Week 1 play.
This Saturday’s competition is your last chance to possibly join Fun in the Sun Final Table action. The final qualifying battle is for account holders only and requires a $25 registration fee and a ‘live’ $10 Win wager on one horse in each of 10 competition races—the last 5 at Saratoga races, including the Gr. 1 Travers, and the first 5 at Del Mar.
Leading finishers each week have averaged $334 in earnings. Top 3 players have checked in at an average mark of $285 and the top 5 cutoff has been at $265. So far, top 3 players have collected over $25,000 in prize money and, since Fun in the Sun competition wagers are ‘live,’ players also have kept mutuel payoff earnings.
Last week’s results reversed previous trends and produced more formful results at Saratoga than at Del Mar. Spa Fun in the Sun competition races returned short prices--all 5 were single-digit payoffs and 4 of 5 were under $5, led by Malathaat’s $3.10 return for her Alabama victory. My Prankster ($9) in the afternoon’s seventh race was the lone stranger. Identity Politics ($4.80) in the eighth, Technical Analysis ($4.20) in the ninth and Perfect Grace ($3.70) in the eleventh, round out other short-priced winners.
Del Mar produced this week’s fireworks with 4 of 5 winners cashing at double-digit numbers, topped right off the bat by Ain’t Easy for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Joel Rosario at $18.20. Red Valor ($15.80) in the second, Forbidden Kingdom ($10.60) in the fourth and Subconscious ($13.60) in the fifth were the other juicy prices. Third race winner Evening Sun paid $9 to complete the quintet. It’s likely the outstanding Pacific Classic day card had something to do with the transfer of hefty payoff fortunes from the right coast to the left.
See you Saturday!
Race of the Week: Personal Ensign at Saratoga | Saturday, Aug. 28
August 25, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$600,000 GRADE 1 PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES AT SARATOGA
The Lead:
They'll gather at Saratoga and at wagering outlines online around the world for Saturday's Travers Stakes, the mid-summer Derby. But it's the Personal Ensign in Race 10 that may have the most competitive lineup on a star-studded, 13-race card. The Personal Ensign has lured some of the best in the Distaff division, fittingly for a race named after the unbeaten, Hall of Fame mare.
Horseplayers tackling the Saratoga card on Saturday at Xpressbet and on the 1/ST BET app can take advantage of up a $10 money-back guarantee on every race on the card if your win bet finishes second or third.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners abound with SWISS SKYDIVER, LETRUSKA, HARVEY'S LIL GOIL and DUNBAR ROAD. The Grade 2 heroines include BONNY SOUTH, AS TIME GOES BY and MISS MARISSA. The Grade 3 winners include ROYAL FLAG and GRACEFUL PRINCESS. This top-class group doesn't have a wide stretch in terms of schedule quality; they've mostly all been battling at the top of the division, though it's hard to argue against the gameplan SWISS SKYDIVER has attempted and success accumulated.
Pace:
LETRUSKA is one of the most high-quality speedsters we've seen in the Distaff division in recent years. Those trying to apply pressure to her figure to be AS TIME GOES BY (with California speed), MISS MARISA on the class rise and perhaps even SWISS SKYDIVER. It's a difficult assignment to pressure LETRUSKA and finish the deal; so from a pace standpoint, it looks most likely to be LETRUSKA on the front end or a deeper closer to benefit.
Our Eyes:
LETRUSKA has won 3 in a row over 3 different tracks. She wired the Shuvee over this 1-1/8 miles distance at Saratoga last summer, eliminating any concern that she'll take her 'track' with her in this next move. You'll have to soften her up to beat her, and that's not easy. There is some speed to her inside, namely AS TIME GOES BY (post 2) and SWISS SKYDIVER (post 4), so there's some chance that she'll have to work for it into the clubhouse turn or give away some ground loss. With jockey Jose Ortiz interestingly taking the seat aboard SWISS SKYDIVER, the mount on LETRUSKA goes back to Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode her to victory in the Apple Blossom against champion Monomoy Girl.
SWISS SKYDIVER ran a very good fourth in the Whitney vs. the boys just 3 weeks ago. But that race wasn't in her original plans, and has diverted the training path because of a quarantine in her barn that kept her out of action. While the quarantine had nothing to do with her, or her Ken McPeek stablemates, it could have an impact on the Personal Ensign. The turn-around time is tight after such a strenuous effort in the Whitney when forced to do the dirty work pressing the blazing, lone-speedster that day, Knicks Go. She will benefit a great deal if IF TIMES GOES BY takes that attacking role Saturday in battling with LETRUSKA. She she had to chase that one in the Apple Blossom this spring, SWISS SKYDIVER was left empty late.
The quality closers here include DUNBAR ROAD, the 2019 Alabama winner over this track for the resurgent Chad Brown barn at the Spa; ROYAL FLAG, already a course and distance stakes winner at the meet for the aforementioned Brown barn; BONNY SOUTH, last year's Alabama runner-up and recent workmate for Travers star Essential Quality, shining bright in the a.m.; HARVEY'S LIL GOIL, last year's Alabama third behind SWISS SKYDIVER and BONNY SOUTH, who has been turfing of late, but tipping her hand in the morning; and GRACEFUL PRINCESS, the regally bred daughter of Horse of the Year Havre De Grace, and recent Monmouth stakes winner with a gaudy 112 BRIS late pace figure.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
LETRUSKA is a head away from 6 straight wins and has a track/distance win. Her speed takes away a lof of the variables. She may be worn down on the win end, but, if so, is trustworthy to keep fighting in the exotics.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BONNY SOUTH will be an inflated price after misfiring over the Delaware Park dirt that often trips up out of towners with its unique qualities. She gets 4 pounds from the favorites and a hot pace to rally into on what could be a huge day for the Brad Cox outfit.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win BONNY SOUTH. $10 exacta box BONNY SOUTH and LETRUSKA ($20).
Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | August 28, 2021
August 27, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk
1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk delivers a couple of key plays from Saratoga and Del Mar for this Saturday. Follow Edzo’s plays each week – only with 1/ST and Xpressbet!
Saratoga
Race 9 // 4:12 pm ET // Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes // 7 furlongs
#4 Following Sea (5-1 ML)
Exits Haskell after a solid performance when the mile and one-eighth distance was too far. He turns back to 7 furlongs, and I’m hoping for a speed duel with the likes of Jackie’s Warrior, Drain the Clock and Life Is Good. Johnny V can try to make one run from off the pace; the faster they go, the better. Win bet.
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Del Mar
Race 10 // 9:35 pm ET // Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes // 7 furlongs
#1 Ginobili (6-1 ML)
July 17 allowance winner has 2 career wins where the turf meets the surf. The Pat O’Brien is a huge step up in class, but he’s tactical. He will need to stalk the hot pace of Brickyard Ride. In a wide-open race, why not? Win-Place bet.
Al Cimaglia: Vernon Downs-Zweig Memorial Trot Analysis
August 28, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The features at Vernon Downs this evening involve three-year-olds battling in the Zweig Memorial Filly Trot and the Zweig Memorial Open Trot. The headliners are carded as Race 8 and Race 9 respectively. On the betting menu is a Daily Double wager which will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8-Zweig Memorial 3-year-old Filly Trot-$140,000 Purse
5-Iteration (7/2)-Comes off a sharp win at Stga in the slop and has been there at the wire in every start this year except for a break in stride on 7-17 in the Delvin Miller. Sports a perfect 3-3 record here, draws the prime post and can be put in play early. Looks like the one to beat.
1-Contested Hanover (5-1)-Has raced well but hasn't connected for a 2021 win. Tetrick takes a seat, and he might be able to get a pocket ride and trip out at a nice price.
2-Darlene Hanover (5/2)-Made it look easy at PcD last week and cashed a big check. Isn't as versatile as #5 but has raced well in both VD starts. Program chalk deserves respect but may need quick fractions to take a picture.
4-Aunt Irene (10-1)-Comes off a nice effort on the 5/8's at PcD from the 8-hole. That was the only start away from M1 this year and may continue the upswing on the big track tonight. Probably isn't ready for a picture but Dunn can keep her in play and could spice up the trifecta.
Race 9-Zweig Memorial Open Trot-$325,000 Purse
4-Dancingthedark M (5/2)-Melander trainee has broken stride in 3 of the last 6 starts. Unless the trip is awful, my belief is this colt wins if stays flat. It's a risky play but will respect connections and appears to stand above this filed if all systems are "go".
5-Balenciaga (7/2)-Consistency hasn't been a strong suit but is improving, winning 2 of the last 3. Last start at Tioga was a strong effort, battled with a 55.4 last half to win. This won't be as easy but has raced well on a larger oval. Has the gate speed for Zeron to work an efficient trip.
1-Take All Comers (6-1)-This Campbell trainee cashes checks but has been a notch or two below others. Does have the gate speed to stay inside and then roll late. Doesn't look like a win candidate but should be in the hunt at the wire.
6-Spy Booth (12-1)-Takter trainee came 2nd in the Hambo with the benefit of a nice steer by Tetrick. Dunn takes the lines tonight and should add to this year's $243,192 bankroll. Is probably an outsider for its 1st picture, has shown speed but only one move.
Zweig Daily Double
$25 Double-5/4
$10 Double-5/5
$8 Double-1/4
$8 Double-2/4
Total Bet=$51
AI Picks: Gulfstream Fla Sire Stakes | Saturday, Aug. 28
August 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card co-features the second leg of the Florida Sire Stakes series. The Susan’s Girl for the fillies and the Affirmed for the colts and geldings will go as Races 9 and 11 on a 12-race program.
To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.
You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
We’ve included the track’s official morning line odds for each runner.
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Gulfstream// Race 9 // 4:36 pm ET // $200,000 FSS Susan’s Girl // 7 furlongs
#6 My Sassenach (5-2) // 28%W // 43%P // 57%S
#7 Outfoxed (5-1) // 14%W // 27%P // 40%S
#3 Demurely (4-1) // 13%W // 22%P // 33%S
#8 Devilette (9-2) // 10%W // 29%P // 43%S
#11 Dear Mama Mia (12-1) // 8%W // 18%P // 29%S
#10 Noble Dreamer (6-1) // 7%W // 17%P // 25%S
#1 Sequin Lady (20-1) // 6%W // 12%P // 19%S
#4 Veiled Prophet (12-1) // 4%W // 9%P // 18%S
#9 LLuvia (50-1) // 4%W // 9%P // 17%S
#2 Rachel’s Rock (20-1) // 3%W // 7%P // 10%S
#5 Spectacular Gal (20-1) // 3%W // 7%P // 10%S
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Gulfstream// Race 11 // 5:48 pm ET // $200,000 FSS Affirmed // 7 furlongs
#5 Cajun’s Magic (7-5) // 28%W // 43%P // 57%S
#8 Cattin (15-1) // 14%W // 27%P // 40%S
#7 Big and Classy (12-1) // 13%W // 22%P // 33%S
#6 King Cab (9-2) // 10%W // 29%P // 43%S
#2 Merlin (20-1) // 8%W // 18%P // 29%S
#4 Lightening Larry (6-1) // 7%W // 17%P // 24%S
#1 Octane (5-1) // 6%W // 12%P // 19%S
#11 Gold Special (20-1) // 4%W // 9%P // 18%S
#3 Clapton (10-1) // 4%W // 9%P // 17%S
#9 Awesome Crusader (30-1) // 3%W // 7%P // 10%S
#10 Gilligan (10-1) // 3%W // 7%P // 10%S
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Saturday, August 28, 2021
August 28, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Valentina Ghada; 5-Electric Ride; 6-Captaire
Forecast: This looks like a very strong maiden juvenile sprint for fillies, and it may very well take stakes-quality performer to win it. California Chrome’s half-sister Captaire lands the cozy outside post and should inherit a lovely stalking trip and then be able to kick home when called upon. She’s certainly quick but it wouldn’t surprise us to see A. Cedillo employ stalk and pounce tactics. Electric Ride has worked well enough to make our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list and most likely will try to bust out early and be on or near the lead throughout. Valentina Ghada has the benefit of an excellent race over the track, a sharp runner-up to the highly-regarded Grace Adler. If she improves as expected, the two hot-shot first-timers better not make any mistakes. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Captaire.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Whisky My God; 6-Magic Tiger
Forecast: Magic Tiger is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Maker and adds blinkers for the first time as well, so there are at least a couple of reasons to expect this son of Smiling Tiger to improve enough to beat this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field of older horses. A fair third under these conditions here last month, the lightly-raced sophomore should find himself in a good stalking position and then have every chance to wear down the expected front runner Whisky My God in the final stages. The later plummets in class trying to find his proper level after displaying good early speed but then faltering badly when facing considerably tougher foes on grass last time out. The Argentine-bred gelding might shake loose early and get brave late. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics in a race that offers no real viable alternatives.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Uncle Jeff; 4-Johnny Podres
Forecast: Johnny Podres was a better pitcher back in the day than he’s been as a race horse, but in this moderate starter’s allowance turf sprint the S. Miyadi-trained gelding looks well-placed to regain his winning form. Sparingly-raced, the son of Grazen has been away since April and his work tab can best be described as uninspiring, but the barn has good stats with layoff runners and this Cal-bred gelding has run well over this course and distance in the past (in the money in three of four starts). A repeat of his runner-up effort to Fratelli last time out will handle this task. Uncle Jeff turns back to a sprint and has won going short on grass, having done so in his debut at Santa Anita in June. We’re expecting the son of Uncle Mo to display good tactical speed from the rail and then have his chance to outrun the faint-hearted front-runners when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Barsabas; 5-Prince Hussar; 8-Cute Impact
Forecast: Cute Impact, a filly tackling the boys, won at first asking from a next-out easy winner and did so from off the pace, a style that might be work quite well in this starter’s allowance dash for juveniles that is loaded with front-running types. She’s a fit on numbers, is drawn comfortably outside, and should appreciate today’s extra furlong. There may be some wagering value at or near her morning line of 7/2. Barsabas wired a maiden-claiming field in good style with an identical Beyer speed figured earned by our top pick. The issue, though, is that he’s facing similar early heat so there are no options other than to be sent hard from the gate and hope he’s good enough to survive the pressure. Prince Hussar, a clever first-out winner two weeks ago, is wheeled back on short rest to take advantage of a condition that may be written back for a while. He’s competitive on speed figures and the :21 3/5 opening quarter split of his debut win may make him the quickest of the quick. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with an extra ticket or two keying Cute Impact on top.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Little Liliana; 7-Beautiful Temple; 10-Chantal
Forecast: In a grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs, we’ll go three-deep and hope to get a decent price home, but if you feel the need to spread even more, go right ahead. Little Liliana displayed ability in her 2-year-old debut over this course and distance last November, finishing second by a neck after disputing the pace every step of the way. She was stopped on after that race but returns as a first-time Lasix user for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners, and with a series of good works at Los Alamitos, including a bullet five furlong drill in :58 3/5 two weeks ago. The J. Sadler-trained daughter of Square Eddie may be a fresh facing worth gambling on at 7/2 on the morning line. Beautiful Temple has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and with a repeat of her good second place effort at Santa Anita two runs back the S. Ruis-trained filly projects as a major player. Chantal is a first-timer from the clever P. Miller barn bred for grass on both sides of her pedigree. Her workouts at San Luis Rey Downs give a hint of ability, so at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in as well.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-I Got No Munny
Forecast: In his present and consistently improving form, the lightly-raced I Got No Munny looks well-spotted to build on his recent sharp win over the local main track that produced a strong, career-top, stakes quality speed figure. The M. Glatt-trained gelding can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position; in this case we expect him to be outside the likely pacesetter Fratelli and then have every chance when J. Bravo pushes the button. Successful in three of his last four starts – his streak was interrupted two runs back by the razor sharp Team Merchants – this late-developing four year is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and will offer good wagering value at or near that price. We’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Love My Jimmy; 4-Jazz Hands; 7-The Hulk
Forecast: Let’s take a shot with the class-dropping The Hulk, who was strictly a sprinter overseas and finally gets his first chance stateside to run short after a pair of non-productive turf routers vs. much tougher allowance foes. He’ll get outrun to the top of the lane for sure, but in a field with suspect speed types he might come running late under K. Frey at a nice price. Love My Jimmy is the quickest of the quick and against this group should stick better after displaying sharp early speed but then fading in the lane in a pair of tougher recent turf sprints. The son of Tapiture will take them as far as he can. Jazz Hands has turf sprint numbers that fit and may be first over on Love My Jimmy if that one weakens in the final furlong. He’s a contender at 3-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Rockefeller; 5-Durante; 10-Encode
Forecast:We’re expecting the winner of this maiden juvenile sprint to be one of three well-regarded first-timers. Encode and Rockefeller has worked together in the a.m. for B. Baffert and have appeared fairly even, though in viewing the videos we got the impression that in an actual race Encode might be the quicker of the two. Both have trained like they’re plenty fit, but the cozy outside draw gives Encode an advantage, so we’ll put him slightly on top at 6-1 on the morning line. Rockefeller might prove better in time as the distances get longer and he’s player today, as well, so we’ll use him. Durante has trained like a quick type for D. O’Neill but the barn’s win percentage with debut runners (7%) is considerably below average. We’ll have tickets including all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Encode on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Me and Mr. C
Forecast: This first-level allowance mini-marathon turf affair has several possibilities so a proper strategy for rolling exotic players may be to spread the race deeply and hope to find a price. Small ticket players don’t always have that luxury, so with that in mid we’ll take a stand and single the M. Maker shipper Me and Mr. C, listed at 7/2 on the morning line. A stakes winner at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this year, the son of Khozan is questionable at this mile and three furlong trip but his middle distance speed figures are strong, and he has the perfect second flight, stalking style that lends itself to success as a long-distance galloper. Freshened since late June but working steadily and easily since arriving in California several weeks ago, the four-year-old gelding always has been genuine and consistent (first or second in nine of 20 career starts) so let’s go with this fresh face as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Howbeit; 6-Classier; 8-Flagstaff
Forecast: Several of the main players exit the Bing Crosby S.-G1, a race in which most of the field finished in a heap and the resulting speed figure came up soft. Let’s look elsewhere. Classier, listed at 12-1 on the morning line, won his only sprint very impressively (his debut), and while he’s been routing ever since – and just won the Los Alamitos Derby over nine furlongs – the son of Empire Maker might just be most effective around one turn. Freshened and training superbly as always, the B. Baffert-trained sophomore tackles tough, seasoned, older horses for the first time and will need a significant boost in the speed figure department, but he’s certain to continue his improving pattern and at the price might be able to pull off a surprise. Flagstaff, a seven furlong specialist and a close runner-up in this race last year, returns from New York where he finished a good second to Belmont Park specialist Firenze Fire in a race that produced a career top 101 Beyer speed figure. A similar performance today puts him right there. Howbeit was claimed for $32,000 earlier this year by M. Glatt and has improved dramatically for his new connections. Though untested in stakes competition, he’s a major player based on speed figures, and he couldn’t have looked better when winning a recent second level allowance event over this main track in a hot race. He has shown the versatility to win on the lead or from off the pace, so at 6-1 on the morning line he's worth including on your ticket.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Zip Now; 4-Carmelita’s Man; 9-Cool Your Jets
Forecast: The finale is a challenging middle distance turf affair for state-bred first-level allowance older horses. Cool Your Jets took 15 races to break his maiden and when he finally did – after returning from a seven month layoff that apparently cured whatever was ailing him – the son of Unusual Heat looked vastly improved, so much so that he may be capable of winning right back on the raise. It was a visually pleasing performance from off the pace that featured a turn of foot from the top of the lane to the wire than we’d never seen from him before, so perhaps he’s simply just a better racehorse now. Additionally, he’s a fit on numbers, retains J. Bravo, and should find enough early pace up front to compliment his one-run style. Zip Now was a stylish debut winner sprinting on turf earlier this month, but truthfully, he had nothing behind him. A nicely-bred colt by Tiznow out of the terrific race mare Unzip Me, the C. Gaines-trained colt is drawn nicely inside and probably will try gate-to-wire tactics, though he certainly could have some company up front. Carmelita’s Man may have had his form flattered when a race-shape aided third in a similar affair last month, but he’s been first or second in six of 11 career starts, including a prior win over the Del Mar turf course. The D. Pederson-trained gelding should at least get a piece of it.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Saturday, August 28, 2021
August 28, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 11:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Electability; 10-Sweeping Giant
Forecast: There are no world beaters among those that have raced so let’s take an educated guess with a first-timer on top. Electability, listed at 7/2 on the morning line, has looked fairly decent in the morning for C. Brown and has been given a good foundation of steady workouts that should have him fit enough to handle the trip in this middle distance turf event for juveniles. The son of Quality Road seems to have a bit of speed, so with a clean break he could find himself close up throughout in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Sweeping Giant, runner-up in a similar affair in his debut last month, has as right to step forward with that race under his belt. The son of Curlin gives the indication of being a one-paced grinder and probably can’t beat a good colt but this doesn’t look like a strong field so he may go favored by default.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:08 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Dr. Perry; 5-Jack Christopher
Forecast: There are at least two superior prospects in this maiden sprint for juveniles and both are expected to be extremely well-meant after impressing with a series of sharp workouts for their high profile connections. Dr. Perry, a colt by Into Mischief from a full sister to Gr. 1 winner Cross Traffic, has done everything like a win-early type for S. Asmussen despite not been permitted to show anything close to his true speed in local drills since arriving from Keeneland, where he posted a bullet gate drill (4f, :47bg, fastest of 62) last month. A strong, powerful grey colt, he was a $690,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland and looks the part for a trainer who that can get his young stock ready to win without demanding fast workout times. This colt could be one of his better ones. Jack Christopher, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, made our “Primed and Ready” list a few weeks back and is the one to fear most. The C. Brown-trained colt is a high quality son of Munnings that has outworked everything led up to him and is another that hasn’t been asked to show his best stuff in the morning despite registering a :59 3/5 gate drill Aug. 7 when he best of a team while just breezing along in hand. Dr. Perry is listed as the better price (7/2) so we’ll put him slightly on top, but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:44 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden Plume; 7-Kitten by the Sea; 8-Love and Thunder
Forecast: Trainer C. Brown has major players in the third race going long on the lawn for fillies and mares. Love and Thunder has a considerable edge in the speed figure department, but can you trust her? A beaten choice when second in all three of her U.S. starts after being imported from England, the daughter of Siyouni surely will receive plenty of play again after hitting the front and then getting nailed close home in a similar middle distance event last month. Drawn farthest outside and likely to drop over, settle, and be asked to produce one late one, the Irish-bred four-year-old is listed at 7/5 on the morning line so once again she won’t be offering a whole lot of value. Stable mate Golden Plume won her debut last winter at Tampa Bay Downs in clever style but then disappeared. She’s trained well for her comeback and picks up F. Prat, so while she still has plenty to prove she shouldn’t be dismissed despite the discrepancy in speed figures between herself and the race favorite. Kitten by the Sea is an ex-claimer in good form for T. Pletcher and may be a bit better than her morning line of 8-1. She earned a career top number when winning a recent starter’s allowance event over this course and distance while on the lead, and similar front-running tactics likely will be employed again. She could take the field a long way if not respected.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:17 ET Grade: A-
Single: 3-Viadera
Forecast: Viadera was plenty fit for a winning performance in her first start since November when 6/5 in the listed De La Rose S. earlier this month but ran into a roadblock when launching her bid entering the lane and lost her best chance, eventually winding up fourth, beaten less than three lengths. She gets a chance to make amends today in this year’s renewal of the Ballston Spa S.-G2, and despite a pace flow that should be very slow early, the Grade-1 winning English-bred mare should be able to produce enough of a late kick to get up in time. A logical rolling exotic single, she’ll offer value in the win pool at or near her morning line of 8/5, though we suspect the C. Brown-trained daughter of Bated Breath will go lower.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:54 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Whittington Park; 6-Brady’s Legacy
Forecast: Whittington Park may have been a tad short in his debut when looming a threat but then settling for second money earlier this month, but with that bit of experience behind him he should be ready to graduate in this state-bred maiden sprint for juveniles. The B. Cox barn hits at a terrific 30% with the second-time starter angle, and also is quite proficient (24% ) when adding blinkers, so in a race that didn’t come up particular tough the son of Midnight Lute seems pretty solid at 2-1 on the morning line. Among the newcomers, Brady’s Legacy is worth consideration. The son of Street Boss sizzled in the preview session of the OBS April sale when working two furlongs in :21 flat, after which he brought $250,000 through the ring. The barn is okay with first-timers, so we’ll have this colt on our rolling exotic ticket while reserving the main punch for Whittington Park.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:26 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-After Five; 9-Shiraz; 7-Collton’s Command; 11-Big Package
Forecast: Colton’s Command had a nightmarish trip when sixth, beaten more than six lengths, in a similar turf sprint over this course and distance last month, and it’s not an exaggeration to say he could have won had he not been stopped cold when full of run entering and through the entire stretch. He’s a lightly-raced son of Twirling Candy with plenty of improvement in him and makes a monumental jockey switch to red hot J. Rosario. With clear sailing today, he’ll have an excellent change to wear down the speed at 5-1 on the morning line. Big Package is drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer but the son of Big Brown is good enough to make his presence felt in the final furlong, though his lack of tactical speed always is a bit concerning. Runner-up when too late in the same race our top pick exits, the D. Donk-trained gelding will need good racing luck, and some help up front to regain his winning form. Shiraz was up in time to win a state-bred affair at this level last time out over yielding ground that may have moved him up a bit. The number was strong, and he’s won on firm ground as well, so we’ll consider him a threat right back, even though he's always preferred to run second or third (17 times) rather than win (five times). After Five is lightly raced with room for improvement, though on numbers he’ll need to step up considerably after finishing well beaten in a similar affair at Belmont Park in mid-July. The W. Ward-trained colt lands the rail and projects to enjoy a good second flight, ground-saving trip and may be able to get at least a piece of it.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:02 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Gamine; 7-Ce Ce
Forecast: Gamine is a winner of eight of nine starts, her only defeat occurring when she was third in the Kentucky Oak-G1 over a nine furlong distance that was out of her range at that stage of her career. This year’s edition of the Ballerina H.-G1 came up without any other early speed, so the B. Baffert-trained filly theoretically should cruise to the front without being asked and then dominate as she usually does. That said, Ce Ce might give her a run for her money. She’s a one-turn specialist that has never been sharper or trained better, and from her outside draw will have the perfect opportunity to employ her preferred stalk, pounce, and go style that brings out her best. Given the discrepancy in price, will give Ce Ce a chance to spring a surprise while recognizing how difficult a task it may be. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:37 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mischevious Alex; 2-Whitmore
Forecast: 2020 Breeder’s Cup Sprint-G1 champion Whitmore switches to J. Rosario and may benefit enough from the patient ride he’s sure to receive to produce his first victory of the year in the Forego S.-G1. A gelding who prefers to be left alone to the top of the lane, the veteran son of Pleasantly Perfect can settle early and blast home in a field he’s capable of beating on his best day. He’s been close this year – four in the money finishes, all in high class company – but we’ll gamble at 4-1 that the “first time Rosario” angle kicks in. Mischevious Alex has two poor runs over the Saratoga main track on his resume so it’s conceivable that he simply doesn’t like this track. But the S. Joseph, Jr. gelding does his best in extended one-turn events, and in a race that projects to have a comfortable early pace flow the son of Into Mischief should draft into a second flight, stalking position while saving ground and have every chance from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while giving Whitmore a slight edge on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:12 ET Grade: X
Use: 2-Jackie’s Warrior; 6-Life Is Good
Forecast>: Jackie’s Warrior demolished his rivals, including the high class sprinter Drain the Clock, over a sloppy track in the Amsterdam S.-G2 earlier this month and we see no reason why he can’t do it again over what we’re expecting to be a fast strip. The son of Maclean’s Music earned a career top speed figure in victory and projects to enjoy a similar pace-pressing trip outside of ‘Clock and then be able to go on with it when called up on. Life Is Good is the wildcard. Undefeated in three starts last winter when trained by B. Baffert, the son of Into Mischief launches a comeback for new conditioner T. Pletcher and though working very well may be a race a way from being totally cranked up. Clearly good enough to win if ready based on speed figures, he’s comfortably drawn outside and could fold into a stalking position and then pounce when ready. In a race that we have no plans to play, Jackie’s Warrior rates the edge on top but Life Is Good is simply too talented to completely dismiss.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:47 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Letruska
Forecast: On resume Letruska is head-and-shoulders above the others in the older filly and mare division and is legitimately listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the Personal Ensign S.-G1. A winner of five of her last six starts and once again the likely pacesetter (her preferred trip), the daughter of Super Saver has been freshened since late June but has fired big shots off similar layoffs in the past and continues to impress in the morning to indicate she’s fit and ready. She’s an obvious short-priced rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:25 ET Grade: B+
Single: 2-Gufo
Forecast: Gufo is developing with maturity and experience and seems set for a career top performance in this year’s Sword Dancer S.-G1 over the marathon distance of a mile and one-half. A confidence-building winner of a listed stakes at this trip in early July at Belmont Park, the son of Declaration of War showed he belonged in Grade-1 company three races back when missing by a nose in the Man O’War S.-G1, and in a race that projects to produce a normal (for this distance) early pace, the C. Clement-trained colt should have every opportunity to produce a winning late kick. This division always seems to produce tough, contentious races, but at the 3-1 on the morning line we’ll take a stand with Gufo as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:12 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Essential Quality
Forecast: Essential Quality has won seven of eight career starts, the only blemish being his fourth place finish (beaten a length) in the Kentucky Derby-G1. The son of Tapit made hard work of it in his most recent victory, a half-score score over Keepmeinmind in the Jim Dandy S.-G2 here last month, but we’re expecting the B. Cox-trained colt to find a way to manufacture another win in this year’s Travers S.-G1 and lock up an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old division. The pace figures to be soft – we’re expecting Midnight Bourbon to establish the running – with ‘Quality drafting into an ideal stalking position and then having every chance to grind out another victory as an odds-on favorite and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 13: Post: 6:51 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dancing Firefly; 12-Sister Luck
Forecast: Maiden claiming state-bred fillies and mares run long on the lawn in the finale in a race that should boil down to two main players. Dancing Firefly couldn’t handle the muddy track in maiden special weight off-the-turf affair here last month and was virtually eased, but under these conditions on grass in her debut two runs back the daughter of Ironicus ran a winning race in defeat when second while three lengths clear of the rest, earning a solid number in the process. From her good rail position, the D. Gargan-trained filly is guaranteed a soft, ground-saving trip and then have her chance to kick home went given her cue. With L. Saez riding her back, she’s the logical favorite at 9/5 on the morning line. Sister Luck, a $375,000 auction purchase last year, is being tossed away for a $40,000 tag in just her third career start, not exactly an encouraging sign, but he’s trained okay on grass for her first start since February and she did show some ability at Fair Grounds in her debut when displaying early speed and winding up fourth in maiden special weight company. She returns without blinkers and with I. Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle for T. Pletcher so despite her extreme outside draw we’ll include her on our ticket.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #6
Arlington - Race #7
Picks Notes #8 City Drifter He comes right back at the same level after a really nice score at this trip last time out. Tactical pace should land another great trip today and can be tough right back. #2 Etched in Stone He has to turn the tables on the top choice from the last meeting, but he has always run well going short on the lawn and should be a player again today. #6 Name Rejected He'll move to the turf for the first time, and his overall form appears fairly competitive with these if he handles the new footing. Guessing he's at least a little bit of an underlay. Race Summary City Drifter appreciated the move to the grass last time out and should be in line for a similar kind of trip from just off the splits. Would think something like the 7/2 ML would be appealing.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #6 One Timer He has been nothing short of spectacular in a couple of starts so far, including an easy stakes win at Woodbine last time out. This 7f trip is the question, but there's no doubt he's the one to catch and beat. #2 Magician Stone Price player was good to us in this spot last time out, and he had a troubled trip in the debut in his only race over the local main track. Maybe he's the one to spice up the gimmicks with the chalk on top. #8 Land Remembered He'll race with Lasix for the first time while trying the synthetic footing again, and his local debut was pretty good when he was under the care of Larry Rivelli. Race Summary One Timer should be a handful here after two fast, easy scores to open his career, and there doesn't appear to be anyone of quite the same caliber lined up here. Magician Stone might be the right price to include.
Picks Notes #7 Plus Chic The main track is a little question after the debut came on the turf, but she was super impressive that day and has the pedigree to be a decent one. #1 Queens Up She has turned in a sharp work since the debut win, and she can probably settle along the fence while letting the pace players go at it in the early going. Late chance. #9 Purr Sea She rolled by 13 in her career debut, but she beat just four Illinois-breds that day, and I wouldn't be too excited to jump in here at anything like the 8/5 ML price. Capable, but I much prefer her stablemate. Race Summary Plus Chic is out of a really sharp old local mare, and this one turned in a very impressive score when doing everything right in the debut win. More ground should only work in her favor.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes #10 LANCASTER BOMBER Bombs away if he can work out a trip from post 10. #7 CANTSTOPLYING Plagued by bad posts, second to 1-to-5 fave in latest. #1 UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN Got first run and blew past the field on the turn, but got caught late. Race Summary Lancaster Bomber made a quarter-pole brush to the lead, yielded to a 21-1 shot, was shuffled badly in a :26.4 third quarter as the top pair swept the field, then finished willingly. He is a live longshot if he can negotiate the outside post. Play a 10-ALL exacta.
Northfield Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #2 GOOD NIGHT MOON Projects good trip, knows how to win, offers best value. #3 TWIN B SUNKISSED Romped from on the pace here and off the pace at 5/8-mile track. #5 VOELZ DELIGHT Piles up the checks, doesn't shy from photo-finish camera. Race Summary Good Night Moon didn't sustain her bid after a :57 middle half, but she won 4 of her 5 previous starts and should sit a good trip at a price in Simcoe Stakes. Play 2-3 and 2-5 exactas.
Picks Notes #5 MACHBOOK PRO Eventful journey in latest, should handle this bunch. #2 BIG BAD MOSA Eight wins the last two years looks good in this field, trainer gets in bike. #1 WAKE N BAKE Takes needed class drop, memory can serve her well. Race Summary Machbook Pro was flushed out before the half, trapped between rivals to the 3/4-mile mark, angled 4-wide on the turn and finished on her own courage. She is today's Best Bet on the class drop in a dreadful field.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #6
Del Mar - Race #9
Picks Notes #3 Colt Fiction Made a strong move into fast fractions and had little left for the finish last time out, finishing third; best when he's placed just off the pace and times his move in the final furlong. Franco picks up the mount and can have him in good position. #4 Fratelli Extremely rapid and a real detriment to others with designs on the early lead; held on well last out and has taken three of his last four. #5 I Got No Munny Finished very well and was up in time from off the pace last time; can get an ideal pace setup. Race Summary Colt Fiction can get a good stalking position and can answer the call when asked.
Del Mar - Race #10
Picks Notes #10 Farquhar Was close throughout and missed by a head last out; runs well over the course and can overcome his outside post. #7 Kazan Ran on well for fourth going a mile last out and looks ready to stretch out to a longer distance. #4 Liberal Closer came out of shorter distances last time and found himself on the front end, only to finish fourth; likely to be close-up again and has a shot to wire it. Race Summary Farquhar barely lost last out and can stay close to the lead going this distance; Desmormeaux keeps the mount and be successful this time.
Picks Notes #4 Mo Mosa Turns back from a fourth-place finish in the San Diego Handicap, has won two of his last three and will make a late run under Ramon Vazquez. #8 Flagstaff Comes off a second to Firenze Fire over the latter's home track at Belmont and had some two straight before that; was second to CZ Rocket in this race last year. #9 C Z Rocket Rallied strongly and was third, beaten by a neck, in the G1 Bing Crosby here last out; gets more ground and could get up. Race Summary Mo Mosa has run longer distances but with the pace of this one, he's definitely a threat at seven furlongs.
Kevin Dolan
Event: (200101) Brentford at (200102) Aston Villa
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 10AM EDT
Play: Aston Villa -103
Take Aston Villa on the moneyline as the free play for Saturday.
Dean Smith hosts his old club here on Saturday in a game the ‘Villains’ will no doubt have three points circled in.
After a surprise opening day loss to Watford, Villa have bounced back with avengeance, dominating Newcastle in matchday two 2-0 and then destroying League Two side Barrow 6-0 on Tuesday.
Brentford similarly have started the season brightly but this isn't a struggling Crystal Palace side they're travelling too on Saturday, and Aston Villa should provide a much stiffer test for the ‘Bees’ here on the road this weekend.
Brentford haven't won a road trip here over their last seven attempts and with a rejuvenated Danny Ings in electric form right now, it's hard not to look past the home side here bagging all three points.
Take Aston Villa on the moneyline for Saturday.
PLAY ASTON VILLA ML -103
Carmine Bianco
Event: (200089) Crystal Palace at (200090) West Ham
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 10AM EDT
Play: West Ham -1.0 (-105)
EPL - Crystal Palace at West Ham
Quick Synopsis: Despite picking up a point last week in a home draw against Brentford it was the 2nd straight game to start the season that Palace has looked listless in attack and are quickly resembling the squad of a few years back that started the season 0-7 without a goal scored. They'll take on a West Ham team that has started the season strong out of the game under Moyes with 2 wins and both were offensive displays with 4 per game. While 1 might be enough on Saturday 2 should get the job done and another 3 points and cover.
The play is West Ham -1.0
Jimmy Adams
Event: (305) Connecticut at (306) Fresno State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: 1H Fresno State -15.5 (-110)
UCONN didn’t play in 2020, which can only hurt a team that was already in terrible shape. The offensive line really struggled the last time we saw them play, something that is likely to continue with the lack of talent. Overall, I struggle to find any real strengths for the Huskies as they enter the season. They also have to travel the farthest of any team and get up for an early start time Saturday. Kalen DeBoer enters his 2nd season at Fresno State. Led by quarterback Jake Haener, this offense is going to be even better than last season, able to name the score in this game. Ronnie Rivers returns in what is a very deep FSU backfield. That being said, it’s the defense that I expect to be much improved from a season ago. The Bulldogs return a great deal of starters on both sides of the ball. As long as they stay focused, covering this spread won’t be a problem. Take Fresno State FIRST HALF.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -17 or lower, 3 units at -17.5 or higher
Nick Borrman
Event: Empoli at Juventus
Sport/League: ISAL
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Juventus -1.5 (-125)
Italy Serie A
The big story for this match is that Ronaldo will not be playing as he has already told Juventus he wants out and it seems a deal to Manchester City is imminent. That being said, I think it is affecting the line in our favor here just enough to give a little more value. Juve is plenty deep enough to be fine without Ronaldo against the weaker teams in Serie A. Perhaps they will struggle some more against the big teams or on the European stage, but against a small team like Empoli, they should have no issues.
Dybala will fill right in Ronaldo's slot up front and he is more than capable of taking on the striker role, alongside with Morata who joined Juve last year from Atletico Madrid and scored 11 goals to go along with 8 assists. Then Juve's always strong defense should have no problem keeping a team like Empoli from getting many chances.
Empoli let up three first half goals in their opening match against Lazio and they just cruised to an easy win from there and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar from Juve here especially now as it looks like Ronaldo will move on and the other guys like Dybala who have been stuck in his shadow will really get their chance to shine.
TAKE JUVENTUS -1.5
Line Parameter: 3% to -1.75
Andrew McInnis
Event: (301) Hawaii at (302) UCLA
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Under 69.5 (-110)
Total Under 69.5 (-110)…4% good to 68.5 or higher, 3% at anything lower.
At 69.5, this total is far too high and an excellent total spot for us to start the season. People see offence and entertaining football when they see Hawaii football, but under Todd Graham, it's been the defence; and all reports suggest it should be even stronger this season. Like many other leagues, having plenty of continuity is huge, and that's a large part of what we see with Hawaii; they have a boatload of returning players across all positions. All reports suggest the defensive front should be strong, fast and cause problems for their opponents.
As for the Bruins aren't getting much respect on defence either; in 2020, their secondary was top notch with several INT's, and they get plenty of help from their strong pass rush.
In week 0, expect two teams with plenty of experience on the field to lead with defence. Both defences will make some plays early and cause some frustration before the offences get clicking.
Play the UNDER
Ralph Michaels
Event: (965) New York Yankees at (966) Oakland Athletics
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: August 28, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: New York Yankees -109 N Cortes (LHP), F Montas (RHP) Must Start
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