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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
August 30, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a rare Monday night 10-race card set to go at 7:10 CST. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 7. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7
2-Model (9/2)-Comes off an even effort against this kind in last but was off almost 5 weeks. This is a good spot to be forwardly placed and should like the company.
3-Spoxys Girl (5/2)-Stepped-up and had some road trouble, before that beat the $8k claimers going off at 6/5. Hasn't been in this cheap all meet. Caution is probably the best course of action but is a main player if 100%.
4-Finleys Filly (6-1)-Camera shy mare is 3 for 38 over the past 2 years but could beat this crew with a top try. Versus this field it's best to consider this team Leonard entry at this price.
Race 8
2-Peace Time (5-1)-Was scratched sick last week, before that won in Springfield and had been in good form. Drops into a spot to shine if ready. Will take a swing that is the case as the Cavett barn has been winning at a 33% clip over the last 30 days.
3-Marcia (3-1)-Three-year-old tries LASIX for the 1st time and has won 3 of 7 at Haw. Fits in a race without a standout.
5-Dixie Chick (7/2)-Drops after breaking in last, wasn't Bender's choice (3) and Todd Warren takes the lines. Doesn't like to win but should relish this company.
Race 9
4-Fire Shine (5-1)-Slow starter can roll late and there could be a few leaving in here to provide a solid pace. Warren owns, trains and drives and this filly can take a picture here but is a work in progress. Looking for an alert start from an inside post draw.
5-Dilly Dilly Time (9/2)-This is another filly that has been handled cautiously off the gate from the outside. But from this post Leonard can get a good seat and be in striking range at the top of lane.
6-Shooting Brooke (4-1)-Has won 2 straight rather easily but now Husted steers instead of Warren. Has an advantage because can be put in play off the gate. Beat this kind last week and Husted can provide a good trip so best to respect.
Race 10
2-Sports Bet (5/2)-Drops to a spot to shine and was Ridge Warren's choice over the 5 & 9. Should have a big chance to take a picture with a smooth trip.
8-Here Comes Mario (7-1)-Lasix has seemed to work in the last 2 starts and now bumps up coming off a win. This post makes it more of a challenge but also helps the price. Worth a swing at this price as the upswing could continue.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,3,4/2,3,5/4,5,6/2,8
Total Bet=$27
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Presque Isle Downs - Race #2
Presque Isle Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes #2 Souper Fortune He woke up in a big way when sent two turns on the turf, so this two-turn synthetic trip might be right up his alley. Look for him late here. #4 Mischievous Rogue He has not been a serious threat to a winner through four starts, but he has faced a couple of good groups and might like the local route trip. #5 War Light Hoping the turf form will transfer over to this synthetic footing, as this guy looked really good on the turf last time out when facing cheaper at Pimlico. Price on the hike? Race Summary Souper Fortune showed some solid finishing ability on the turf last time out, and he could be on the scene in the lane to pick this group up. Anything like the 9/2 ML price would feel very attractive.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #10 Stop War Route pace will cut back here and figures in line for a nice trip while tracking the pace from midpack. There are some decent back sprint efforts, and the race flow might work in her favor. #11 Inthemidstofbiz She has some pace, but she also has an ability to sit just off it, and that may serve her well while drawn outside of other forward players. #5 Praise and Honor Class test today for this one, but she is in good form and has the right kind of style to spy the pace in the early going. Second off the layoff brings out something better here? Race Summary Stop War is interesting enough on the cutback out of some solid route spots, and she should get overlooked on the board with a chance to come calling late.
Picks Notes #6 Thisaintjumpstreet A trio of forward players might set things up for something from off the pace today, and she might be the right finisher at a mid-range price. #1 Every Little Bit Tough to argue with the consistent form, but she has pace and draws the fence with some other speedy types drawn outside of her. This is a soft spot for the step into open company. #3 Elia Another one who figures to get in the mix in the early going, and she draws best of the serious pace players to be able to prompt the splits early. Race Summary Thisaintjumpstreet has some claim on this from off the pace, and the hope is she sits back in the early stages and a battle develops early among a few pace types.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #4
Indiana Grand - Race #6
Picks Notes #6 Mystery Unbridled Looks like an outsider, but his last one showed marked improvement as he finished third; he's back to the dirt and has the speed to be a factor from the start. #4 Lastchanceatglory Lost a photo at Churchill three races back and most recently was outrun in a good sprint at Arlington; returns to Indiana Grand and should be a threat as he stretches out again. #3 Olympic Romp Has been in stronger races and drops to the lowest level he's seen since January; can get a good stalking trip here. Race Summary Mystery Unbridled ran very well on the front end last time out and will have designs on the same kind of run; woke up from a slump and is a threat at an upset here.
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #2 Elitch Never is defeated by all that much, and he was able to put together consecutive wins at Oaklawn and Lone Star in the spring and most recently was fifth in a turf race at Ellis; consistently closes ground and lands in a good spot. #4 Halo Hunter Really took to the all-weather track at Arlington, was an easy winner last time and has taken three of his last four. Very rapid and the one to overhaul. #6 Slick Silver Had a six-race win streak over two years an has been backing up lately; he's been in some seriously tough races and fits with these. Race Summary Elitch is a successful campaigner at levels similar to this and usually makes a strong case for himself last in his races; gets a good pace setup.
Picks Notes #5 A Few too Many Won two straight allowance races early this season and most recently was third in a pair of stakes races; has a class edge. #3 Cap de Fuego Held on well for an allowance win last out and will be a strong player on the front end. #4 El Bohemio Is the best chance for a price in the exotics; was second for bottom claiming level last time, but his performance was good enough to consider here. Race Summary A Few too Many has been in stakes races running longer and should like turning back to a sprint at this level.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs
Indiana Downs - Race 8 Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $38,500 • Post: 6:02P FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * WEST COAST JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BICKERMENTS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RHAPSODY IN GREY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CRYPTO CAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WEST COAST JUSTICE BICKERMENTS RHAPSODY IN GREY CRYPTO CAT
Line
Class
Speed
FigureRHAPSODY IN GREY Stalker MISS DONNASUE Alternator/Stalker BICKERMENTS Trailer CRYPTO CAT Trailer WEST COAST JUSTICE Trailer AMA LUCY Trailer IMA N H LADY CAT Alternator/Trailer QUEEN CHARMAINE Alternator/Non-contender QUITE WHIMSICAL Alternator/Non-contender NOT A ROLE MODEL Alternator/Non-contender RODSSILVEROAK Alternator/Non-contender SEQUEEKER Alternator/Non-contender FUN KEY TOWN Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes - Race 4 Claiming $11,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $17,200 • Post: 2:37P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SMITE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NO MORE MIRACLES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PROFESSOR DAVE: Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EVRYBODYLUVSNORMAN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is withi n half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). SMITE NO MORE MIRACLES PROFESSOR DAVE EVRYBODYLUVSNORMAN
Line
Class
Speed
FigureEVRYBODYLUVSNORMAN Front-runner HONOR THY SECRET Front-runner SMITE Alternator/Front-runner PROFESSOR DAVE Alternator/Stalker NO MORE MIRACLES Alternator/Stalker YOU'VE GOT MALE Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 68
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 30, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 HEY HEY RUN AWAY 9/5
# 3 WITTS'S GATO 5/1
# 5 ANWARA 8/5
I think HEY HEY RUN AWAY is a quite good choice. She has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Brown have shown strong results recently. With Carreno uptop her, this mare ought to be able to break out quickly for this event. WITTS'S GATO - Should best this group of animals here, showing respectable figures of late. Will almost certainly go to the front end and might never look back. ANWARA - Gourneau has a sound 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Ran a strong last race.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 62
Rating:
#2 BOURBON BROWN (ML=4/1)
#10 SPROLES (ML=6/1)
#3 STARE DECISIS (ML=9/2)
BOURBON BROWN - A big drop in class rating points from his August 9th race at Presque Isle Downs. Based on that data, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. The recent bullet 47.4 work should put this colt on track for today's contest. SPROLES - Another way to assign class is earnings per race entered. This entrant has the top in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish. Looking like a possible overlay in this race at morning odds of 6/1. Finished sixth in last race at Presque Isle Downs but was close at the finish. I think that the addition of the 'shades' today will keep his mind on the race at hand. STARE DECISIS - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Ayala and Rice partnered together are a horse gambler's friend.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 POWERFUL POINT (ML=7/2), #9 DEPUTY OX (ML=5/1), #6 BOARDWALK BOB (ML=8/1),
POWERFUL POINT - Didn't land in the top three on Jun 19th at Monmouth Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. Doubtful that this horse can transfer his turf form to the main track. DEPUTY OX - Would have to get better off that sixth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. Finished sixth in his most recent race with a common speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. BOARDWALK BOB - If you keep choosing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied most of the time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #2 BOURBON BROWN to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,3,10] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 66
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 30, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 30, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 AUTUMN ASPEN 2/1
# 4 SING ALONG SUZY 7/5
# 5 SHOOT ME STRAIGHT 5/1
I've got to go with AUTUMN ASPEN. Have to believe this entrant will make a good impression following the quick turn around. Have to bet on this filly with the reliable earnings per start in dirt route races. Reason to like this filly as she has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. SING ALONG SUZY - Ought to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of very good win percentage - 20 percent - at this distance & surface.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 54
Rating:
#3 SMASHED POTATOES (ML=5/1)
#2 PRECIOUS JULES (ML=4/1)
SMASHED POTATOES - Gelding won shipping here on August 4th and looks good right back. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should benefit from today's shorter trip. This thoroughbred could be tough this time, especially since Tapara rode last time out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Just check out his most recent speed fig, 50. That one fits in this group. PRECIOUS JULES - I sense a pace scenario where the early speed will falter, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Belterra Park in the last race. That race had a class figure of 61 and he is moving down right here. A certain solid contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BOW TIES N BOURBON (ML=5/2), #1 THE MAN CAN (ML=3/1), #4 LETSGETITSEVENTEEN (ML=9/2),
BOW TIES N BOURBON - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since August 3rd. Not much value on this favorite. Hard to wager on at 5/2 odds after the most recent showings. This horse ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will likely get beat in today's event running that fig. THE MAN CAN - This gelding garnered a speed fig in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. Hard to bet this one from the number one post. His history is telling you not to. LETSGETITSEVENTEEN - Multiple tries for this questionable contender at Thistledown and still hasn't received his first victory here. Finished third in his most recent race with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #3 SMASHED POTATOES to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
1. Insider Sports Report MLB Seattle under 8.5 0-0 (+0) 4-0 (+415) 2. The Sports Consensus 0-0 (+0) 3-0 (+300) 3. Profit On Sports MLB Nats over 8.5 0-0 (+0) 3-1 (+180) 4. Primetime Sports Picks MLB Dodgers -1.5 -105 0-0 (+0) 4-2 (+170) 5. National Sports Service 0-0 (+0) 3-3 (-35) 6. The Spot Player MLB Toronto -1.5 -160 0-0 (+0) 3-3 (-105) 7. Doc's Picks MLB Cardinals +1.5 -115 0-0 (+0) 3-4 (-140) 8. Elite Sports Picks MLB Toronto -1.5 -160 0-0 (+0) 3-4 (-260) 9. Joe Wiz 0-0 (+0) 2-5 (-410) 10. Top Rank Sports Picks MLB Nats over 8.5 0-0 (+0) 0-7 (-890)
R and R Totals MLB ATLANTA BRAVES/LOS ANGELES DODGERS u9 0 0 0 Silvas Sports MLB ATLANTA BRAVES +1.5 ‑110 0 0 0 The Money Team Wins Sports MLB SEATTLE MARINERS +140 0 0 0 Tommy King Wins MLB HOUSTON ASTROS ‑150 0 0 0 Tys Terrific Tips MLB WASHINGTON NATIONALS/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES u8.5 0 0 0 Winning Cappers MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS ‑130 0 0 0 XS Sports Picks MLB CINCINNATI REDS ‑1.5 +140 0 0 0
Kenny Walker
Aug 30 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Rockies vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +138 at Caesars
Free Pick on Rangers
Mike Williams
Aug 30 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Rockies vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +132 at Caesars
1* on Rangers +132
Bobby Conn
Aug 30 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Rockies vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +132 at Caesars
1* Free Play on Rangers +132
Info Plays
Aug 30 '21, 9:00 PM in 1h
Soccer | La Serena vs Curico Unido
Play on: Curico Unido +113 at linepros
1* FREE INFO PLAY on Curico Unido +113
Sal Michaels
Aug 30 '21, 9:45 PM in 2h
MLB | Brewers vs Giants
Play on: Brewers -128 at William Hill
Free Play on Brewers -128
John Martin
Aug 30 '21, 9:45 PM in 2h
MLB | Brewers vs Giants
Play on: Brewers -123 at SC Consensus
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Milwaukee Brewers -123
The San Francisco Giants are in a tough spot here. They will be tired coming off a 9-game road trip out East and returning back home for this series. They are at a big disadvantage on the mound tonight as well. Johnny Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 20 starts for the Giants this season. Corbin Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.23 ERA in 22 starts for the Brewers, including 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA in 10 road starts. Burnes held the Giants to one run in 7 innings in his only previous start against them back on August 6th earlier this month. Cueto is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA in his last two starts against the Brewers, giving up 8 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. Milwaukee is 23-8 in its last 31 road games. Give me the Brewers.
Dave Price
Aug 30 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +148 at SC Consensus
Dave's Monday Free Play:
1* on Seattle Mariners +148
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seattle Mariners tonight. Chris Flexen has been one of the most profitable starters in baseball to back this season. Flexen is 11-5 with a 3.54 ERA in 24 starts this year, and 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 13 home starts. Flexen is also 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 outings against the A's, Rangers and Blue Jays. The Mariners are 17-7 (+14.7 Units) in Flexen's 24 starts this year. Luis Garcia sports a 4.97 ERA in 11 road starts this year for the Astros. Garcia yielded 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-8 loss to the Mariners in his last start against them. Take Seattle.
Dustin Hawkins
Aug 30 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
MLB | ATL vs LAD
Play on: UNDER 9 -110
1 Dimer on Braves vs Dodgers under 9 -110
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