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Thread: Service Plays Monday 8/30/21

  1. #41
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Matt Snyder

    MILWAUKEE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/30 | 9:45 PM EDT
    SAN FRANCISCO +120
    ANALYSIS: The Giants are coming off their first series loss in over a month. The law of averages with this team says they are ripe for a victory. They return home, where they are 42-19. Being home is good news for starter Johnny Cueto, too, as he has a 3.09 home ERA vs. 4.47 on the road. The bad news here is we're betting against Corbin Burnes. He's been amazing this year, particularly on the road. He's also more than double his workload in this season than any other in the majors and, at some point, he's likely to hit a wall. The Giants hit really well at home, so we'll wager they get to him enough in this one to pull off the win.

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    PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/30 | 7:05 PM EDT
    PHILADELPHIA -145
    ANALYSIS: The Nationals have lost six of their last eight and 18 of their last 24. Josiah Gray gets the ball Monday and he's been great for the Nets since being acquired in the Scherzer/Turner trade, pitching to a 2.89 ERA in five starts. That's why we get good odds here with the better team and Zack Wheeler. Sure, Gray might pitch well, but he hasn't gone deeper than six innings and the Nationals have a 6.22 bullpen ERA since the All-Star break. Wheeler has been bad in his last three starts, but this is a soft landing as the Nationals don't have a productive offense anymore. He'll bounce back.

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  2. #42
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    MLB(Bob Balfe)
    7:05 PM EST
    Rotation #953-954
    Phillies/Nationals Over 8.5 runs
    Wheeler/Gray
    It will be a sticky and humid night in the DC area. As the game goes on the humidity will rise which makes the ball travel further. Zack Wheeler has been great this year for Philly, but his numbers have dipped in the last month. Jon Gray is in the same boat as his numbers have not been as good in the last month. There is always the issue of the bullpens. Philly’s bullpen has been brutal so you can always count on late runs if needed. Take the Over.

  3. #43
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    H&H Sports

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    Triple Dime - Dodgers/Braves Under 9 [-120]
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  4. #44
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    Pickswise Sports

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    2* Rays/Red Sox Over 8.5 (-120)
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    XS Sports Picks Executive Top Plays

    5* LA Angels Over 9 +100

  6. #46
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  7. #47
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Tokyo Brandon
    (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
    Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
    Date/Time: Aug 30 2021 9:40 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: William Hill
    Play Rating: 1%
    Play: Tyler Gilbert Under 4.5 strikeouts

    Gilbert averages only 2.5 strikeouts per game and the Padres are one of the most disciplined lineups in the game. Gilbert has only managed 5 Ks in one game all year and he should not be able to get there in this one. Bet Gilbert Ks Under 4.5.

    (957) Milwaukee Brewers at (958) San Francisco Giants
    Game: (957) Milwaukee Brewers at (958) San Francisco Giants
    Date/Time: Aug 30 2021 9:45 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 1%
    Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.0 (-110) C Burnes (RHP), J Cueto (RHP) Must Start

    Burnes is having an amazing season and is even better on the road than at home. He has a .171 BA against vs the Giants and is on a roll of great starts. Cueto has a .275 BAA vs the Brewers and although he has a good ERA at home, he has been going very short lately, exiting games in the 4th and 5th innings. The Brewers have a huge bullpen advantage and get 9 bats on the road so lay the -1 alt run line for nice odds. Take the SP and bullpen advantages and if they win by 1 it is a push.

  8. #48
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    steve merril
    brewers

  9. #49
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Tokyo Brandon

    (304659) KIA Tigers at (304660) Doosan Bears
    Game: (304659) KIA Tigers at (304660) Doosan Bears
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 5:30 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 5%
    Play: Doosan Bears -155

    Pinnacle has this at 155 but it will probably go to 170 or so by the end of the day. Take it. Doosan has the SP, bullpen and lineup advantages here. Kia has the worst lineup and worst bullpen in the league. Dan Mengden is their SP which is why you can get a decent number on this but Mengden has struggled badly lately and his reputation is better than his results. Miranda on the other hand has been stellar and his numbers are just as good as advertised. His K:BB rate is immaculate and his record vs Kia is great. Take Doosan on the money line.

    (304657) NC Dinos at (304658) SSG Landers
    Game: (304657) NC Dinos at (304658) SSG Landers
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 5:30 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: 1H NC Dinos -148

    Drew Rucinski has been a little shaky lately but SSG's SP Choi Min Jun is terrible. He ranks 80 out of 93 SPs with a 6.22 career ERA and a 6:6 K:BB ratio. The #1 lineup in Japan should be woken from their slump facing this stiff. Take the defending champs on the 1st 5 money line. -148 at Pinnacle might be gone soon but anything -170 or better is good for a money line 1st 5 play.

    (304137) Orix Buffaloes at (304138) Nippon Ham Fighters
    Game: (304137) Orix Buffaloes at (304138) Nippon Ham Fighters
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 12:00 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 2%
    Play: 1H Nippon Ham Fighters Total Over 1.5 (+100)

    The Fighters are the best hitting team this last week and they face a pitcher in Yamazaki who has a 6+ ERA against them in 2 starts. My numbers have this total at 2.3 so make a small 2% play on Nippon Ham getting 2 runs in the first five innings.

    Hiroshima Carp at Yokohama BatStars
    Game: Hiroshima Carp at Yokohama BatStars
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 4:45 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Hiroshima Carp Total Over 3.5 (-110)

    My number have Hiroshima scoring 4.2 in this one which is worth a 3% play. Yokohama SP Hamaguchi is bad, and he is backed by an even worst bullpen. The Carp have been hitting well lately and this is a hitter's park. They also have 9 at bats. Take the Carp Over 3.5 for anything -130 or better.

    (304141) Seibu Lions at (304142) Chiba Lotte Marines
    Game: (304141) Seibu Lions at (304142) Chiba Lotte Marines
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 4:45 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: 1H Seibu Lions Total Over 1.5 (-120)

    Pinnacle has this at 120 now but it could drop to -140 or so. That's ok play it. The Lions are hitting great right now and Mima can not get his mechanics right. He has allowed 28 RUNS in his last 4 starts. The Lions hot him for a 3.80 ERA and 1.5 is a low hurdle to clear for a 1st 5.

    (304147) Chunichi Dragons at (304148) Hanshin Tigers
    Game: (304147) Chunichi Dragons at (304148) Hanshin Tigers
    Date/Time: Aug 31 2021 5:00 AM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: 1H Hanshin Tigers -150

    Hanshin SP Aoyagi has been great this season and especially great vs Chinichi. The Dragons are the worst hitting team in the league and should be held under 1 in the 1st 5 here. The Tigers are the best 1st 5 hitting team and certainly should be able to get a run in the 1st 5 off of Fukutani. Take Hanshin on the 1st 5 money line. Pinnacle is offering it at 150 but anything 170 or better is good.

  10. #50
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    The Money Team Sports Network

    5k NY Yankees -1.5 -110
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