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Thursday’s games
Temple @ Rutgers
— Temple was 1-6 LY, its first losing season in seven years.
— Over last decade, Owls are 24-17 ATS out of conference.
— Temple has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Owls have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Owls have freshman QB with 1 start- he threw 30 passes for Georgia LY.
— Temple is 13-6 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Last six years, Rutgers is 16-53 SU.
— Since 2013, Scarlet Knights are 15-11 ATS out of conference.
— Rutgers has 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Rutgers has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Rutgers’ junior QB has started 7 games.
— Last five years, Rutgers is 4-3 ATS as home favorite.
— Rutgers won last four series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2013.
— Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games played here.
Boise State @ Central Florida
— Over last decade, Boise State is 100-27 SU.
— Broncos are 9-11 ATS in last 20 non-league games.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 13 games.
— Last seven years, Boise is 5-2 ATS as an underdog.
— UCF is 41-8 last four years; Gus Malzahn is new coach.
— Malzahn is 22-26-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCF has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Golden Knights have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCF has a sophomore QB with 22 career starts.
— Last five years, UCF is 15-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.
East Carolina vs Appalachian State (@ Charlotte)
— East Carolina has six straight losing seasons.
— ECU is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-leaguer games.
— East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— East Carolina has a junior QB has started 25 games.
— Last two years, Pirates are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last six years, ASU is 63-15 SU.
— App State is 14-9 ATS last 23 non-league games.
— App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a QB with 11 starts- he transferred from Duke.
— ASU was 2-7-1 ATS as favorite LY, coach Clark’s first year.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
South Florida @ NC State
— South Florida went 5-16 last two years, after a 36-15 run.
— Bulls are 14-11 ATS in last 25 non-league games.
— USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
— USF will have a new QB; they have transfers from UNC, Miami.
— Bulls are 12-9-1 ATS last 22 games as road underdogs.
— NC State finished over .500 six of last seven years.
— State is 6-10 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— State has 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has soph QB with 8 starts; he’s had injury issues.
— Last three years, State is 9-6 ATS as home favorites.
— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
Bowling Green @ Tennessee
— Bowling Green is 12-41 SU since Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse.
— Falcons were 0-5 LY, outscored 225-57.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Bowling Green has only 14 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have a junior QB with 5 starts.
— Last two years, Falcons are 0-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Tennessee is playing first game for new coach Heupel.
— Heupel was 9-8 ATS as home favorite at Central Florida.
— Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Vols have 70 returning starts on offensive line.
— Vols have QB with 5 starts who transferred from Michigan.
— Last four years, Tennessee is 5-10 ATS as home favorites.
— Vols (-21.5) beat Bowling Green 59-30 in 2015.
Ohio State @ Minnesota
— Last nine years, Ohio State is 106-11 SU.
— Buckeyes have home game with Oregon next; better not look ahead.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ohio State doesn’t have a QB who has thrown a college pass.
— Coach Day is 14-5 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 on road.
— Minnesota was 3-4 SU LY, 18-8 previous two years.
— Last two years, Gophers are 11-5 ATS in conference games.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 26 starts.
— Since 2013, Minnesota is 11-8 ATS as home underdog.
— Teams haven’t played since 2018.
— Ohio State won last 11 series games (2-5 ATS last seven)
— Buckeyes covered five of last seven visits to Minnesota.
Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (September 1, 2021)
September 2, 2021
Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies horses that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita/Del Mar), New York (Saratoga/Belmont Park) and Florida (Palm Meadows) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv.com. Horses are removed following their first race after appearing on the list.
Workouts through September 1, 2021
CAISSON – (R. Mandella) – August 30, Del Mar, 5f, :59.4h
View Workout
War Front colt wore blinkers and was breezing inside the hard held Lane Way (4f, :47.3h), splits of :23.3 and :47.1 to the wire before continuing out to 7/8 pole under very light coaxing in :59.4, strong work while getting cranked up. Been away since finishing second in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes last November, has all of his conditions and probably can be effective on any surface.
FLIGHTLINE – (J. Sadler) – August 30, Del Mar, 5f, :59.3h
View Workout
Hard held throughout while full of run, splits of :23.4, :47.2 and :59.3 from the half mile pole to the 7/8ths pole before coasting out to the six furlong pole in 1:12.3. Carries plenty of condition but trains like he’s fit and ready. Won his only start at Santa Anita like ae future stakes star and is returning as well as he left. Scary to think he still has first-level allowance conditions available.
I GOT A GAL (P. Eurton) – August 29, Del Mar, 4f, :46h
View Workout
Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile broke off at least 12 lengths behind two overmatched workmates and easily inhaled the pair entering the lane with an impressive display of speed, final three furlongs on our watches in :11.2 and :34.4, never really asked and then galloping out nicely to the 7/8 pole while being eased up. Plenty fit and appears blessed with unusual talent. Was $150,000 OBS June sale purchase and looks ready to roll.
ONTHEONESANDTWOS (N. Casse) – Aug. 29, Saratoga, 4f, :47b
View Workout
Under a stout hold in sharp half mile breeze while clearly best over Buckingham Prince (same time), finishing with a ton left late in quick move over training track. Was beaten as the favorite in the Adirondack S. but didn’t get off well and didn’t run her race. Way better than that.
RAYMOND ROAD – (J. Englehart) – August 29, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4hg
View Workout
New York-bred filly was in team gate drill inside Wicked Workout (same time) and was going the easier of the two throughout while just breezing along, able to go faster if permitted. Has speed but displayed nice action and should be more than just a sprinter. Daughter of Flatter looks to be a 2-year-old with a bit of quality and may get ready pretty quickly.
RED DANGER – (B. Lynch) – August 29, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b TC TT DU
View Workout
Going easily throughout inside I’m So Sorry (same time) around dogs over the turf training track while appearing sharp to prove much best while just gliding along. Broke his maiden sprinting on grass in good style and has plenty of further improvement in him. Juvenile colt by Orb should have no trouble handling extra distance.
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Workouts through August 25, 2021
HOPE OVER FEAR - (T. Pletcher) – August 21, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01b
View Workout
Under wraps outside Handbelle (5f, 1:01.1b) for Pletcher and was clearly best to the wire and finishing with plenty left, quite sharp for juvenile daughter of Cupid. Debuted over a distance of ground on grass last month and led the way until tiring in the final furlong; will be much fitter next time, for sure.
SHE’S SO NICE-IRE - (P. D’Amato) – August 22, Del Mar, 4f, :46.4hg
View Workout
Terrific work for Irish import while much best inside Classically (4f, :47.4hg), breezing throughout while displaying excellent speed and then galloping out five furlongs in :59.2 with plenty left. Been away for almost a year has all of her conditions, was a useful two year old overseas but should be a much better type for trainer who excels with these types of imports.
TRAFALGAR - (C. Brown) – August 22, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1b
View Workout
Strong, scopey, extremely attractive juvenile son of Lord Nelson was in company with Fannie and Freddie (same time) and was under a nice hold through the lane while able to go faster if permitted. Brought $310,00 at the OBS April sale despite a moderate bottom line and didn’t breeze particularly fast (10 2/5) but covers a lot of ground and should eventually show his best stuff over a middle distance.
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Workouts through August 18, 2021
GRAFTON STREET – (M. Casse) – August 13, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3b TT TC DU
View Workout
Broke off a length in front of Classic Legend (4f, :48.4b TT TC DU) and easily opened up on that one at will without being asked through the lane, nice stride on what surely will prove to be his preferred surface for Casse. Showed ability in debut when rallying to finish third in dirt sprint and seems certain to improve going long on the lawn.
HAMWOOD FLIER – (R. Baltas) – August 12, Del Mar, 4f, :47.3b TT TC DU
View Workout
Sophomore filly was in company inside Kartvelian (4f, :48.2h TC DU) and was under a tight hold through the lane to be a few lengths clear at the wire as much the best, able to go considerably faster if turned loose in a very impressive move. Irish import broke her maiden in her fourth career start in June and arrives fit, ready, and appearing much better than the form would show. Has first level allowance conditions.
INFINITE EMPIRE - (R. Mandella) – August 14, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.3h
View Workout
Solo five furlong drill by highly-promising maiden in the R. Mandella barn, slow and easy to the top and then finishing strongly while being asked a bit through the lane, final quarter in a sharp 23 4/5. Good sized, scopey juvenile filly by Empire Maker brought $360,000 as a yearling and looks the barn. Certain to be most effective going long.
MECCA SPIRIT – (B. Baffert) – August 16, Del Mar, 5f, :59.1hg
View Workout
In blinkers, in team gate drill outside Marco Polo (5f, :59.2hg) for B. Baffert and proved best by a length in the late stages of the drill while responding to some mild coaxing, splits of :34.4, :47 flat and :59.1, smart drill while gearing up for his debut. Juvenile colt by Bernardini doesn’t act like a quick sprinter but definitely can run and probably will prove best as the distances increase. Should be fit enough by now.
LIBERTY M D – (I. Wilkes) – August 14, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.2b
View Workout
Hard held to the top of the lane and then coasted through the stetch to appear extra sharp in five furlong solo breeze for Wilkes. Was rank, got mad, and was overmatched in Shuvee S.-G3, so toss the race out, still a bit inexperienced and probably prefers one turn at this stage of her career. Has second level allowance conditions.
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Workouts through August 11, 2021
DEFERRED TAXES - (C. Brown) – August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1b
View Workout
Sophomore maiden was under a tight hold every step of the way while even but a tad the best over Southern District (same time) in sharp half mile breeze. Moves quite well on the main track but is bred for grass and all three of his outings have been on the lawn. Certainly trains like a better type than his form would indicate and is worth another chance on either surface.
ETOILE - (C. Brown) – August 8, Saratoga, 5f, :59.4b TC
View Workout
Worked outside Pocket Square (same time) on turf for C. Brown and was even throughout, never asked and finishing with something left while looking just about set for comeback. Freshened since the spring, Grade-1 winner should have a very productive late summer and fall season.
UNION TRAIN - (J. Shirreffs) – Del Mar, 5f, 1:01hg
View Workout
$325,00 OBS March sale purchase is getting ready for his debut and seems just about set after dusting off workmate James Gang (4f, :49hg) with an impressive display acceleration around the turn to finish with plenty left despite being forced wide around a pair of gallopers. May not be a quick sprinter type but definitely has an exciting future, especially as the distances increase.
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Workouts through August 4, 2021
ENCROACHMENT - (R. Hanson) July 30, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00hg
View Workout
Unraced four-year-old gelding broke slowly in company from the gate with Kimmer and Ball Lass (both 5f, 1:01.4hg) but quickly got in gear and easily overtook his workmates without need of urging and then drew far clear after the opening three furlongs, splits of :23.3, :35 flat, :47.2 and 1:00.2 on our watches, mild late coaxing. Bred for much speed and appears to have plenty of it though he’ll need to break better in the afternoon. Should be plenty fit by now.
NORTH CAROLINA - (B. Tagg) August 1, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b
View Workout
Broke off far behind Tiz Eternal and Money Merger (both 5f, 1:02.2b) and caught that pair approaching the wire despite being taken in hand and geared down in the final furlong, quite impressive for a once-started 4-year-old maiden gelding. Had one start more than a year ago in a maiden race on turf at Belmont Park and never landed a blow but has to a much better type now for B. Tagg (had been a C. McGaughey last year). Stretch-running type should return soon.
REAL FIRE - (J. Sadler) August 1, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.1hg
View Workout
Unraced 2-year-old filly worked from gate with older Grade-1 winner Flagstaff (same time) and was much quicker early while leading by a few lengths after the opening quarter, was joined by workmate midway on the turn and was pretty much even thereafter (perhaps a neck back when pulled up), splits of :23 flat, :34.3, :47 flat and 1:00 flat, easy early, mild late coaxing. Street Boss filly was $360,000 OBS April Sale purchase and seems ready to roll for J. Sadler.
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Workouts through July 20, 2021
EXCELLENT TIMING - (C. Brown) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.3b
View Workout
Sharp and eager in solo five furlong drill while strong throughout and mostly on his own. Stakes-winning New York-bred colt has been freshened and the time off appears to have done him some good. Stakes-quality sort when he’s on his game.
FOUR GRACES - (I. Wilkes) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
View Workout
Breezing half mile drill while clearly best from Liberty M D (same time) for I. Wilkes, just cruising under a nice hold while workmate had to be asked a bit to stay even. Ran like a short horse in her comeback in Kentucky; seems likely to be fitter and improve next time out.
HOPKINS - (B. Baffert) July 19, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :59hg
View Workout
Unraced 3-year-old Quality Road colt brought $900,000 as a yearling and may finally be ready to face the starter based on this impressive gate drill while proving best over Gold Rush Candy (5f, :59.1hg) and Dubronik (4f, :48hg), always on his left lead but in front along the rail throughout, something left late without pressure, :46.2 and :59 flat on our watches. Turned in a series of fast works at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and should be more than fit enough by now.
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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Thursday, September 2, 2021
September 2, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Tmorrowisalongtime; 5-Park Avenue
Forecast: Tmorrowisalongtime didn’t get the best of runs when fifth in her recent comeback on grass, lacking room entering the lane and then failing to produce any real turn of foot when clear (though she did gallop out strongly). Bred top and bottom for dirt and with a race under her belt that should serve to sharpen her up, the daughter of Frosted retains U. Rispoli, has trained well on the main track since raced and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. Park Avenue, the deserved morning line favorite at 8/5, is another sporting the second-off-a-layoff angle while retaining F. Prat. After finishing second vs. similar over this track and distance last month while four lengths clear of the rest, the J. Sadler-trained filly should be tighter and tougher today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Time to Party; 4-One Time Mark; 6-Sumter; 7-Facetious
Forecast: The second race is a stronger-than-par maiden juvenile turf sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Time to Party, a good second when worn down late over this course and distance last month, has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him for a stable that has terrific stats (26% with a strong ROI) with the second-time starter angle. The P. Miller-trained son of Kantharos shows two easy breezes since that race to tick him over, so unless there’s a good thing in the field he should earn his diploma. But there are a few others in here with credentials as well, and each will be a better price. Facetious, a $290,000 OBS June sale purchase, is bred to be quick (Distorted Humor ) and smoked a quarter mile during the preview session in 20 4/5 seconds. He’s a good moving colt that looks plenty fit and at 3-1 on the morning line should get plenty of backing on the tote. One Time Mark was sold for $240,000 at the OBS April sale, where he previewed in an ordinary 10 2/5 seconds. However, he has displayed good athleticism in recent workouts for M. Glatt and is bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree. Sumter showed ability in the a.m. for R. Mandella prior to his debut but finished far back after displaying speed to the head of the lane. He’s certain to improve on grass (War Front) and is worth tossing in somewhere at what may be a bigger price than his morning line of 6-1.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kattah; 6-Impossible Task; 7-Albizu
Forecast: Albizu ran well to be third in a similar starter’s allowance main track miler last month, removes blinkers for the first time, and switches to U. Rispoli. The K. Mulhall-trained son of Include has produced a forward move on the speed figure scale in each of his five career starts and with further improvement the sophomore ridgeling looks capable of regaining his winning form. Impossible Task exits a series of tougher first-level allowance events, most recently finishing a distant third behind the stakes-quality Defunded, and with this class drop and with numbers that fit the son of Liam’s Map should be a major player. He shows a prior win over the Del Mar main track and has a good stalking/pressing style that should allow for a trouble-free journey. Kattah, first off the claim for S. Callaghan, is protected in a sign of confidence after graduating in a maiden $40,000 affair last month. The son of Honor Code has to prove he’s more than just a late-running sprinter, but his pedigree suggests that two-turns should fit him fine. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver or a backup.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Brandon’smylawyer; 5-Muy Chistosa; 7-Fast Janie
Forecast: Fast Janie recorded the fastest time for a furlong (:09 4/5) at the OBS March Sale, after which she was purchased at the auction for $90,000. There’s nothing significant in the first two generations and the Fast Anna’s generally don’t break the bank at the sale, so all things considered the price was better than expected. She picks up F. Pat for her racing debut, has a decent local gate drill on her resume, and was previously given a good foundation of drills at San Luis Rey Downs to have her plenty fit. Brandon’smylawyer breezed a furlong in :10 flat at the OBS April, displaying quick action and good athleticism, and then brought $340,000 through the ring despite being by an unproven stallion with a modest $7,500 stud fee and from a moderate female family that contained nothing underneath the first dam. The R. Baltas-trained daughter of Astern shows a series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that indicate plenty of talent. Muy Chistosa was somewhat less impressive at that same OBS preview session but still went well enough, breezing a quarter mile in :21 2/5 under mild urging only. The daughter of Practical Joke from the stakes-winning mare Hello Maggie May has looked decent in local drills for J. Mullins and may be worth tossing in on ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 7-Seven Sisters; 9-Taming the Tigress; 10-Kristi’s Tiger
Forecast: Taming the Tigress is lightly raced, improving with each outing, and fresh from a fast, highly-rated demolition of a starter’s allowance field here in late July that if repeated today should allow her to take this class hike in stride. The daughter of Smiling Tiger has an ideal stalking style for this extended sprint distance, and with F. Prat riding her back the P. Miller-trained state-bred filly seems the solid top pick at 5/2 on the morning line. Seven Sisters is another on the rise, having graduated from a maiden $50,000 field earlier this meeting in stylish fashion, though on pure numbers she has work to do to challenge our top selection. This will be just her fourth career starts, so the A. Mathis-trained daughter of Oxbow likely has plenty more to give and should be part of the pace throughout. Kristi’s Tiger failed at 50 cents on the dollar when second in a similar Cal-bred affair in her first start since May. Based on her sharp speed figure two races back she’s a legitimate threat.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Candy On Top; 8-Peppermint Flirt
Forecast: Candy On Top ran a bit better than the line will show when overcoming early trouble to finish willingly to be a distant third in a fast, highly rate and already productive five furlong grass sprint earlier this meeting. The Twirling Candy filly stretches out to a distance that should be well within her range, and from the rail she projects to be on or near the lead throughout. The only concern is that she failed to change leads in her debut; let’s hope she learns to switch over today. Peppermint Flirt, wide without cover most of the way, wound up a non-threatening third in her debut over this course and distance while finishing behind two potential stakes-types. On paper, this looks like an easier assignment, so if the daughter of Texas Ryano produces a forward move, she’ll absolutely be a solid contender. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets with Candy On Top.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Commissioner David; 9-Double the Gold
Forecast: Trainer D. O’Neill holds the aces in this maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. Double the Gold ran quite well vs. maiden $50,000 foes in his debut at Los Alamitos in early July when on the pace until tagged close home, and then was pitched too high vs. straight maidens on grass when forcing the pace and then weakening through the lane to wind up fifth, but with an improved speed figure. Back with sellers today, the Goldencents gelding is cozily drawn outside, switches to F. Prat, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. O’Neill’s other starter is Commissioner David, a fairly quick son of Commissioner who, after stumbling at the start, flashed good speed before fading in a maiden $80,000 affair here last month. With a clean break today he should make the running but is likely to have his stable mate breathing down his neck throughout . We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Double the Gold.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Riding With Dino; 6-El Diablo Rojo
Forecast: Riding With Dino may be the one to beat in this grass dash for California-bred older horses. The son of Vronsky has excellent gate speed, and over a course in which the pace types usually dominate this R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding has a chance to stick around a long time in his second start off a long layoff. With solid on numbers and retaining J. Bravo, the lightly-raced four year old offers excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 6-1. El Diablo Rojo finished with interest but too late when fourth in a similar first-level allowance state-bred affair over this course and distance last month and seems likely to produce a forward move today in his second start off a layoff while retaining F. Prat. The son of Clubhouse Ride is a prototype late-running sprinter, but over a course that promotes the speed types this C. Lewis-trained gelding will need a good, clean trip to make an impact.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Avisse; 3-Navy Queen; 9-Zahra
Forecast: Fillies and mares at the $16,000 claiming level meet over a mile on the main track in the Thursday nightcap. The last time this group got together, the whole field seemed to finish in a heap, so tread lightly. Zahra moves over to the J. Wong barn and switches to A. Cedillo after finishing a close third over this track and distance last month. A repeat of that race, or her runaway claiming win at Pleasanton two runs back makes her the one to beat. Avisse finished a head in front of Zahra in that common race Aug. 6 and from her good inside draw should inherit a second flight, ground-saving trip and be a major factor from the quarter pole home. She picks up a much stronger rider, K. Frey, though with that luxury comes an additional seven pounds. Navy Queen hasn’t won in nearly two years, but she’s been chasing tougher and should go much better at this level, assuming she can transfer her turf form to dirt. The blinkers-off angle always catches our eye. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but if you can afford to spread deeper, go ahead.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Thursday, September 2, 2021
September 2, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bee Bit; 5-Claddagh’s Run; 8-Mopolka
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Bee It, claimed in her last pair and freshened by her new connections since mid-June, returns on the one-level drop, not always the healthiest of signs, but in this case the daughter of English Channel appears properly spotted from a good inside draw with the switch to J. Rosario. In the frame in 19 of 30 career starts, the M. Kantarmaci-trained mare does her best work when she can stalk, pounce, and go, and projects to enjoy that type of trip in a small field of six. Mopolka is the likely controlling speed while returning to the claiming ranks for L. Rice. She has a prior win over the local lawn but speed figures that don’t quite match up with our top pick. However, given her projected trip, she must be considered a major player. Claddagh’s Run, first or second in eight of 13 starts, is the most dangerous of the closers, and in her second start off the layoff she may be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Java Buzz, Slipstream; 8-Dr Brownes Miracle
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Java Buzz ran well in her debut over this course and distance last month, overcoming some trouble leaving the gate to rally gamely from the top of the stretch to the wire to wind up second while two lengths clear of the rest. She failed to change leads through the lane; hopefully she’ll utilize proper footwork today and if so the daughter of Mshawish may be hard to contain close home. Slipstream exits a hot off-the-turf event when winding up a well-beaten third, but we suspect she’ll go much better in this softer spot, especially with the return to grass for the always powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario trainer-jockey team. Dr Brownes Miracle has had some issues coming out of the gate in the morning and doesn’t really strike us as a win-early sprint type, but out of respect to the trainer’s success with first-time starters (26% with a massive ROI) we’ll include the daughter of Temple City on a back-up ticket. None of the other first-timers intrigue us but there’s always the possibility of one or more running better than they work, so tread lightly here.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Esotica; 3-Red Pepper Grill
Forecast: Esotica comes off two much improved efforts, a third place finish when a voided claim for $25,000 at Belmont Park in May and then an easy six length romp for that same price last month here at Saratoga. However, both races occurred over sloppy surfaces so on fast ground she still has plenty to prove. This drop into the (nw-2) $16,000 level is proper so from the rail she’s sure to be sent hard to obtain her coveted from running trip. Two nice breezing half mile works since raced are encouraging, so it may simply be a matter of handling a dry track, if required. Red Pepper Girl has the route-to-sprint angle we like, and with the return to her claim level the J. Sharp-trained filly switches to L. Saez and will be bearing down in the final furlong. On pure numbers, she’s right there with these. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Aloha West; 5-Three Techniques
Forecast: Aloha West made hard work of it when desperately beating a lesser field in a photo and today moves up a notch to the three-other-than condition that in theory should be a tougher spot. Based on numbers, it isn’t. The Hard Spun colt lacks gate speed but generally puts in a strong mid-race move to enter contention, a style that seems well-suited for this seven furlong trip. With J. Rosario staying aboard, the W. Catalano-trained colt should be set for another major performance following a bullet half mile drill (:47b) that was the fastest of 32 for the distance last week. Three Techniques, drawn just to the outside of Aloha West, was overmatched in the Vanderbilt S.-G1 but is realistically spotted today and seems likely to return to good form. Best as a mid-pack stalking sprinter and a prior winner over this track, the son of Mr Speaker switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and should be bearing down in the final furlong. Preference on top goes to Aloha West but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Deferred Taxes; 3-Mubtadaa
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Mubtadaa and Deferred Taxes are making the all-important class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and both should benefit considerably from today’s easier assignment. Mubtadaa has numbers are stronger than par for this level, so the War Front colt just needs to bring his best race and he’ll be hard to catch. Deferred Taxes, freshened since mid-June, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and appears the one our top pick must fear the most. The son of Flintshire projects to settle in the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-The Institute; 8-Father Walsh
Forecast: The Institute has done some excellent work in the a.m. leading up to his debut and this New York-bred son of Into Mischief seems plenty fit and ready to win at first asking for a barn that has superior stats with debut runners. He appears to be quick enough to take full advantage of his inside draw, so if the H. DePaz trained colt breaks cleanly under J. Ortiz he should he find herself on or near the lead and have every chance from there. The other first-timer in the field that looks live is Father Walsh, a strong-looking son of Twirling Candy that appears to have at least a fair amount of ability. The barn doesn’t have much of a record with debut runners, but this colt probably is worth consideration as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Motivated Seller; 7-Gotta Go Me; 9-Time Limit
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Motivated Seller tries turf for the first time and has the proper pace stalking style to be effective under these conditions. She shortens up a furlong in her second start off a layoff for C. Brown (26% with this angle) and has a few back speed figures that fit very nicely in this league. Time Limit must overcome her extreme outside draw but should have enough early speed to fold over into a good stalking position and have her chance from there. She’s up a level following a clever score over this course and distance last month when earning a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today she’ll be right there. Gotta Go Me was beaten at odds-on under these conditions last month when missing in photo. She’s been first or second in six of 11 career starts and figures in the fray once again.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Candy Tycoon; 5-Musical America
Forecast: Candy Tycoon shows up in a claimer for the first time and has recent speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. The T. Pletcher-trained gelding was in a tad steep when a weakening fifth over this track and distance last time out yet still earned a career top number, and against this group nothing much more will be needed to get back in winning form. Musical America won an off-the-turf main track sprint with a big figure last month for this same $40,000 tag and it may be significant that J. Rosario, who rode them both, opts for this gelding over Candy Tycoon. Most effective on the front end, the son of Malibu Moon surely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Silvery Rill; 6-Take the Backroads; 9-Mystic Eyes
Forecast>: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Mystic Eyes looked terrific winning her debut sprinting on grass last month, but she’ll probably have to outrun her pedigree to be effective over a distance of ground in this year’s edition of the P. G. Johnson S. That said, she’s a beautiful mover with an easy, efficient stride, so the distance may be within her range. From her extreme outside post, the daughter of MacLean’s Music will need to hit the ground running. Take the Backroads is improving with racing and looked quite good graduating in a maiden turf sprint here last month. She’ll probably try gate-to-wire tactics on the stretch out, and her pedigree suggests a mile should be within her range. Silvery Rill missed in her debut at 6/5 when worn down after rallying wide into the lane and hitting the front close home. She never changed leads, and that’s a part of her game she’ll need to correct. The daughter of War Front is sure to receive the patient ride she apparently prefers from J. Rosario and if the pace comes up contested she could easily produce a winning late kick.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B-
Use: 6-Babagram; 7-Sandor Clegane
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for grass only. Babagram, second over this course and distance at this level last month, is the least exposed of the contenders and with another forward move may earn his diploma in his third career start. The T. Morley-trained 4-year-old gelding earned a solid number when stalking the pace outside and then staying on gamely; he’ll be part of the pace again today and should remain a strong factor throughout. Sandor Clegane flashed speed before faltering in an off-the-turf muddy track sprint at this level in a race that probably can be ignored. The speed figure he earned two races back when fourth vs. maiden special weight foes makes him the one to fear most, and the addition of Lasix won’t hurt his chances, either. Babagram is the slightly faster of the two on numbers, so we’ll give him the edge on top.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Presque Isle Downs - Race #2
Presque Isle Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes #5 Bummer He might appreciate the move back around two turns, and there isn't a whole lot of pace signed on in here, so he might be able to find the front and have a pretty easy go of things there. #3 Pure Spring He's another who can sit a trip somewhere near the top while moving back around two turns, and he rallied well behind a runaway winner in that last one. #4 Our Denominator He has been in just a bit tough when racing with this kind in recent starts, but he should get the right kind of trip near the front. Hangs around for a piece? Race Summary Bummer might be fast enough to find the front in a race without much early burn, and the recent form has generally been reliable. Something like the 3/1 ML price would feel attractive enough.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #2 Rayo de Luz Speedy player can find the front with these, and the recent form makes him tough if he's able to control the tempo like he has in a couple of those wins lately. Price won't be anything, but he's probably difficult to beat here. #4 Surf and Turf He's a versatile player who can probably track the top choice, but his best stuff might be just a touch short of what it would take to be a win contender with these. Price player boosts the gimmicks a bit. #6 Ecru Tactical speed fits well here and has run pretty well over synthetic footing in the past, and he's likely to get a good pressing trip from the outside draw. Race Summary Rayo de Luz brings super sharp synthetic form with him to this as he seeks his fourth straight score. Hoping that Surf and Turf can step forward one more time to land a piece of this at a price.
Picks Notes #4 Caramel Martini She can get a perfect tracking trip with these, and she's stakes placed over the local footing and has only missed the exacta twice from ten starts here. Tough with these. #6 Forgotten Peace She cuts back for this one and should land in a good spying spot in this sprint, and she is almost always in the mix in deep stretch. Wouldn't want a number that's too short here. #2 Proposition She has some sharp pace to put in play with this group, and her baseline effort is good enough to land this. Nothing to argue with from the first two local starts, and a hat trick is not out of reach. Race Summary Caramel Martini should trip out from a decent spot while getting what figures to be a pretty good race shape with these. Hoping for something like 2/1.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #12
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7
Picks Notes #1 BLAZING TRAIL Rallied from far back for second, moves outside in on class rise. #3 SHADY MCCOY Responded to front-end tactics, held on for 29th victory. #7 HASHTAGMADEYALOOK Stretch drift proved costly as winner took inside route. Race Summary Blazing Trail couldn't match the winning rally of the odds-on favorite, but he finished second from post 8, earning a playback from the rail. He should offer fair value on the class hike. Play 1-3 and 1-7 exactas.
Running Aces - Race #9
Picks Notes #6 CONTROL ME ONCE Two wins and a deceiving third in August, goes well again. #4 LORD ANTHONY Paced evenly in 1:49.4 in repeat attempt, one to beat. #2 ISLAND BEACH BOY Raced close up from same post before closers arrived. Race Summary Control Me Once was held up by stalled cover as he launched a rally on the final turn two starts back. He closed ground while widest in the stretch but couldn't reach the leaders in a fast-paced race. He validated that effort with a romp as the odds-on favorite and is taken to repeat tonight.
Picks Notes #8 SUMMER FANTASY Set solid pace before tiring, gets class relief and driver upgrade. #2 ACEFORTYFOURLADYDI Can use her speed wisely from inner post, price attached. #4 DANCINGONTHESAND Needs some pace flow, use underneath in gimmicks with 1-32 record since 2020. Race Summary Summer Fantasy led through the fastest middle fractions of the day after she started from post 9. She tired in the stretch but should go non-stop on the class drop as today's Best Bet.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #1
Del Mar - Race #2
Picks Notes #2 Tmorrowisalongtime Makes her first two-turn dirt start after a dirt sprint and a two-turn turf run; the daughter of Frosted is suited for the distance and can thrive in this spot. #1 Velvet Slippers Quality Road filly gets her first chance at two turns and should move up; was second in her debut and fizzled last out. Can improve. #5 Park Avenue Set the pace and held second last time in her first at two turns; another Quality Road filly, she can excel at the middle distances. Race Summary Tmorrowisalongtime was designed to be a miler and can get a good run here; should get a good pace setup.
Del Mar - Race #8
Picks Notes #6 Sumter Mandella trainee retreated in his first start, which was on the dirt, and now he gets his chance to on the turf, and his pedigree indicates he should improve. #3 Facetious Has trained well for his first, can take to the turf at once, and gets hot-riding Joe Bravo, who has a 20-percent clip in his first trip to the West Coast. #3 Time to Party Set the pace and just missed in his only start; looks like the one to catch. Race Summary Sumter is bred for grass and should be able to show a good run after a dismal first out; most likely to improve.
Picks Notes #3 Proof He Rides Was impressive in an easy win in his only start, which came at Golden Gate, and moves over to the Blacker stables; has trained well and be the one to get the 0-for-18 barn pointed in the right direction. #4 Riding With Dino Set the pace and held third last time in his first on grass; can bring the early heat and will be dangerous if he can get clear early. #6 El Diablo Rojo Closed to fourth last time and has won two of his last five; has an edge in experience and can improve position here. Race Summary Proof He Rides was an easy winner at Golden Gate and he should be able to continue that success as he steps up to winners.
Kevin Dolan
Event: (225329) Bulgaria at (225330) Italy
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Italy to win to nil (-250)
Big price here on Thursday but Italy should absolutely cruise here against a far inferior Bulgaria side in their home tie in Florence.
Italy have yet to concede a goal over their opening three World Cup qualification games so far while Bulgaria have averaged a measly 0.33 goals per game to this point.
That is in addition to the fact that the Bulgarians have now just one win to their name over their last 21 international competitive fixtures in all, averaging just 0.57 goals per game over that run and they've never secured a victory over the Italians in their history.
Expect a comfortable Italian victory here on Thursday in a game I don't expect Bulgaria to score in either.
PLAY: ITALY TO WIN TO NIL -250
Carmine Bianco
Event: (225333) England at (225334) Hungary
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: England -1.0 (-135)
World Cup Qualifying - England at Hungary
Quick Synopsis: Round 4 of qualifying and while Hungary sit 2 points back of England in 2nd place you have to take their good start with a grain of salt with wins against Andorra and San Marino while holding on for a single point against Poland at home in a game they were outplayed in throughout. While England's 3-0 record had a win in it against San Marino they were full marks for wins over Poland and 3rd place Albania. They should get the win and clean sheet here while covering the handicap.
The play is England -1.0 (3% at -1.25 split line of -1.0 and -1.5)
Nick Borrman
Event: England at Hungary
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: England + UNDER 3.5 Goals (-125)
World Cup Qualifying
I mean not much question that England is the better team here. They were oh so close at the Euros, falling to Italy in the final on penalty kicks. They played fantastic during that tournament and had the lowest xGA allowed mark of all 24 teams at just 0.76.
Hungary also surprised many with their results. They were drawn into the group of death and nobody gave them a shot at advancing, but they were actually in the drivers seat to advance until an 84’ minute goal be Goretzka for Germany saw their match end in a draw instead of a win. They earned draws against both Germany and France with a loss to Portugal.
Behind those results though, were numbers you would expect to see. They averaged just 0.48 xG per game while allowing 2.27 xGA. They also generated just 6.3 shots per game while allowing 14.7.
England is obviously right in the same caliber as those three teams and there is no reason to think we won’t see similar numbers in this game. The question is will England be able to get a result and I believe the answer is yes, but I don’t see value in laying the full goal here on the road as this could very well be a 1-0 win.
Hungary knows their backs are against the wall to win this game, but a draw would be a huge and even if they do lose, keeping it minimal is very important as the 2nd placed team in the group still has a chance and right now they are three points ahead of Poland and +4 goals ahead in goal differential.
So Hungary parking the bus, England being stallwarts on defense but ultimately the side that will control this game and me thinks we see a low scoring England win.
TAKE ENGLAND + UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 2% to -140
Nick Borrman
Event: Colombia at Bolivia
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Total OVER 2.5 (+115)
World Cup Qualifying South America
Bolivia is one of the bottom two teams in South America and usually a great opponent for teams like Colombia who can't quite compete with Brazil and Argentina, but need to get wins to finish in the Top 5 to be able to qualify for the World Cup.
Bolivia in their six matches in the group are 1-2-3 with a 9:14 goal differential which is tied with Peru for the most goals allowed and because of their defense, they have a 5-1 O-U 2.5 goals record. Over their last 10 games which includes the six World Cup qualifiers plus their four Copa America games this past summer, they are allowing a whopping 19.8 shots with 8.0 on goal, both the highest of any South American team. At the same time they generate just 8.7 shots per game with 3.0 on goal. That combined 11.0 shots on goal in their matches is why I love the Over here.
Colombia is a much stronger team averaging 11.1 shots per game with 4.0 on goal while allowing 10.7 shots and 3.8 on goal during that same period. More importantly, all six of their World Cup qualifiers so far have finished Over the total.
Colombia are in the #5 spot right now which is the last last qualifying spot of the ten teams and they will certainly be looking at this as a great opportunity to get an important three points and thus pushing for some goals.
TAKE OVER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 2% to -110, 3% to -130
Bobby Ligs
Event: (137) Boise State at (138) Central Florida
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 68.0 (-110)
Dave Cokin
Event: (141) South Florida at (142) NC State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 2, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: NC State -17.5 (-110)
I'm very bullish on NC State this season. The Wolfpack are in my preseason Top 20. Very strong on the defensive side and I like their QB to have a big season. My only area of concern is the receiving corps as they might not have any real big play threats in that group. But this team should be rock solid running the ball and also stopping the run, which remains my ultimate go with combo. South Florida remains in rebuild mode. The program has gone downhill badly from where it was previously, and I really can't see them showing much, if any improvement this season. Good sized spread but I made this game even higher, Wolfpack -25. That being the case, I've got no problem laying what I see as a bit of a bargain. North Carolina State minus the points.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
Belterra Park - Race 2 Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $10,200 • Post: 1:05P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GRANITE CANDY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GRANITE CANDY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. SUPER STEAMY: Horse had a bullet workout within the last se ven days. CARPE AMORINA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GENERAL GINNY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. TIGER JO: Horse ranks in the top three in ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRANITE CANDY SUPER STEAMY CARPE AMORINA GENERAL GINNY TIGER JO
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Class
Speed
FigureGRANITE CANDY Front-runner HERE AND VOW Stalker TIGER JO Stalker SUPER STEAMY Alternator/Stalker CARPE AMORINA Alternator/Stalker GENERAL GINNY Alternator/Stalker
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
Evangeline Downs - Race 2 Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 6:17P FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Horse
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Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. SILVER MAID is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ACHANCETOWIN: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. AMBER PASS: Today is a sprin t, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SILVER MAID: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ACHANCETOWIN AMBER PASS SILVER MAID
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Class
Speed
FigureAMBER PASS Front-runner PHANTOM POINT Front-runner ACHANCETOWIN Alternator/Front-runner SILVER MAID Alternator/Stalker LA LOLA Alternator/Non-contender AMELIA'S ANGEL Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
09/02/21, SAR, Race 6, 3.55 ET
09/02/21,SAR,6,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $85,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred).
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 42.50, ROI 1.24/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 6 Ava K's Boy 4/1 Castellano J Martin Carlos F. FEC 229 37.55 1.40/$1 089.7307 10 Illuminato 9/2 Saez L Cox Brad H. T 229 37.55 1.40/$1 089.2587 11 Gimmedamoney 4/1 Gaffalione T Maker Michael J. L 229 37.55 1.40/$1 086.8286 1 The Institute 7/2 Ortiz J L DePaz Horacio 229 37.55 1.40/$1 085.1930 5 Lord Brownie 15/1 Franco M Sciacca Gary S 229 37.55 1.40/$1 084.6034 8 Father Walsh 6/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Reynolds Patrick L. JW 229 37.55 1.40/$1 084.4437 2 Lazzarito 8/1 Santana. Jr. R Bond H. James 229 37.55 1.40/$1 084.0516 3 Money Merger 6/1 Davis D Tagg Barclay 229 37.55 1.40/$1 083.1876 7 Ocean's Reserve 8/1 Rosario J Gyarmati Leah 229 37.55 1.40/$1 082.4760 4 Knightly Mischief 15/1 Alvarado J McPeek Kenneth G. 229 37.55 1.40/$1 082.1161 9 Datesfreedom 20/1 Samuel J L DeLauro Edward J. 229 37.55 1.40/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -10.2693
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Race Age Not 3
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Emerald Downs - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,040 Class Rating: 59
Rating:
#4 SENOR FABULOSO (ML=3/1)
SENOR FABULOSO - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a solid contest within the last thirty days. Matias rode this thoroughbred for the first time last race out and comes right back this time around. Is ranked number one in the field in earnings per start. A powerful try in this race can add to the lifetime bankroll.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TAP THE BANK (ML=2/1), #1 GABBY TOM (ML=5/2), #3 HIGH SPEED CHASE (ML=7/2),
TAP THE BANK - Will be hard for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list. GABBY TOM - This gelding notched a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 SENOR FABULOSO is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $72000 Class Rating: 92
FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (HORSES THAT ARE ENTERED FOR
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 10 KRISTI'S TIGER 4/1
# 1 LITTLE MISS ELLIE 12/1
# 6 WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE 15/1
KRISTI'S TIGER is my choice. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this horse look quite good in this race. Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. This filly is a contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint events. LITTLE MISS ELLIE - She has been racing strongly lately while recording very solid speed figures. WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE - This filly has some longshot angles I like to wager on. This filly obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 4 in her races as of late.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 75
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 8 CHAMPS SUCCESS 5/1
# 5 OXWOOD 4/1
# 2 TOUR THE WORLD 5/2
My selection for this event is CHAMPS SUCCESS. Has to be carefully examined in this competition if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last affair. Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (74 average) at today's distance and surface lately. OXWOOD - Conditioner boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. I expect a quite good performance from this racer whose conditioner has one of the strongest return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. TOUR THE WORLD - Displays strong Equibase speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Is tough not to consider given the company run in lately.
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