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Service Plays Saturday 9/25/21
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BTC SPORT
- Cruisin' Carolina
Game: (347) North Carolina at (348) Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: North Carolina -12.0 (-110)
You're not going to get rich by betting double-digit conference favorites on the road, so tread responsibly. But I do think this is a good spot for Carolina to continue to claw their way back up the rankings with another impressive win. That opening night loss to Virginia Tech is in the rear-view mirror, and now that we have the benefit of hindsight, that was a brutal spot for the Tar Heels. They were welcoming in new players in a lot of key positions on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. They've bounced back really well, covering the spread by double-digits against Georgia State and Virginia. The Tar Heels have out-gained their three opponents by an average of 173 yards per game.
I think North Carolina could enjoy a big mismatch in the trenches, much like Clemson did last week. Georgia Tech has a -9 sack differential on the season, giving up 11 sacks and only generating two of their own. In Tuesday's press conference, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins admitted that his team will probably be out-manned in the trenches. “I still vividly remember two years ago right out here us playing Carolina and that offensive line. Even coaching six or seven years in the SEC, that line was as big and physical as any team and they are still big and physical up front."
I honestly don't know what you can take away from Georgia Tech's game against Clemson last week. There was a two-hour storm intermission before halftime. So the both teams had to warm up twice and essentially play two separate games. Georgia Tech's defense looked phenomenal, but how much of that was a product of the weirdness of the game?
This game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so there really isn't any kind of home field advantage for Georgia Tech. I'm sure plenty of Carolina faithful will make the trek. The Yellow Jackets haven't played there since 2017, so there's no real familiarity with playing in the dome. Playing on the fast turf is probably an advantage for the superior athletes of North Carolina.
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RALPH MICHAELS
- Game: (331) Florida International at (332) Central Michigan
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Central Michigan -11.5 (-110)
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Originally Posted by
dawggy
RALPH MICHAELS
- Game: (331) Florida International at (332) Central Michigan
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Central Michigan -11.5 (-110)
#332 5% Central Michigan -11.5 FIU NOON ET (good as 5% to -13.5)
Central comes in a very hungry 1-2 with losses at Missouri & LSU. Despite being a combined 33.5 pt dog in those two games they were only out’FD 44-49. Under McElwain, Central is not only 7-0 ATS off a SU loss in the regular season but they’ve covered those games by 14 PPG! Central is also 8-0 ATS as a Fav under McElwain. FIU playing a second straight road game with a road game against their rival Florida Atlantic on deck. Chippewas ran 86 and 81 plays their first two games while FIU has not faced a rush team all season and will wear down in the second half.
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SportsLine Projection Model
LOU at FSU | 09/25 | 03:30 PM EST
Against The Spread
Pick: FSU +2.5
FSU covers in 52 percent of simulations
Over-Under
Pick: Over 62.5
The Over hits in 49 percent of simulations, bringing value to these odds
Projected Final Score: LOU 32 FSU 31
ILL at PUR | 09/25 | 03:30 PM EST
Against The Spread
Pick: PUR -11
PUR covers in 59 percent of simulations
Over-Under
Pick: Over 55.5
The Over hits in 48 percent of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Projected Final Score: PUR 36 ILL 20
CSU at IOWA | 09/25 | 03:30 PM EST
Against The Spread
Pick: IOWA -23
IOWA covers in 50 percent of simulations
Over-Under
Pick: Over 44.5
The Over hits in 48 percent of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Projected Final Score: IOWA 34 CSU 11
WSU at UTAH | 09/25 | 02:30 PM EST
Against The Spread
Pick: WSU +14.5
WSU covers in 54 percent of simulations
Over-Under
Pick: Under 55
The Under hits in 59 percent of simulations
Projected Final Score: UTAH 32 WSU 19
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Bryan Leonard
5% - Wisconsin -5.5 (vs Notre Dame)
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Dave Cokin
3% New Mexico Lobos +2 (-115)
SATURDAY COLLEGE MOVE
Game: (413) New Mexico at (414) UTEP
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 9:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New Mexico +2.0 (-115)
Don't wait on this one as I can see New Mexico being favored by game day. The Lobos aren't any good but they're better than UTEP. I won on Saturday with a play on Texas A&M against New Mexico and the Lobos were totally shut down by the elite Aggies defense. They'll do better against the Miners. But I was actually somewhat impressed by New Mexico's defense. They did a good job of limiting the powerhouse home team's offense after a very rough start to the game. UTEP will gave extra prep time as they'll have not played since the 10th, when they got annihilated at Boise. That really doesn't mean much to me. I made New Mexico -2 here, so the Lobos are a bet for me at plus anything.
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Gianni The Greek
4% Iowa state -7
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Potato Kmish
5* Florida St. + 1.5
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Kevin Dolan
5% top play - under 46.5 California/Washington
Breakdown
Two teams coming off 40+ point games but we expect this one to be much lower scoring on Saturday night between the Huskies and the Golden Bears.
After a rough start to the season, the Huskies seem to have got their mojo back on defense, holding the Arkansas State Red Wolves to just 3 points last week and just 4.5 yards per pass attempt through the air.
The Huskies now lead the PAC-12 in scoring defense, pass efficiency defense, first down defense and third down efficiency defense over the first three games of the season.
On the other side, California are humming right now on the ground under coach Justin Wilcox. The Bears yards per rush attempt this season is on par to equal the 183.0 ypg they set back in 2012 and the Bears rank 5th right now in total rushing yards per game in the PAC-12 this season.
The Under has cashed in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides and is 6-0 to the Under in their last 6 in Washington as well.
We expect another low scoring sub-40 point game here on Saturday similar to the last two meetings back in 2018 & 2019 and recommending a play on the Under here on Saturday between California and Washington.
PLAY: UNDER 46.5
*Line good to 46, 45.5 to 45 (4%), 44.5 < (3%)
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Dave Cokin
4% Boston College +3
4% Utah -14.5
4% Washington -7.5
3% Florida Atlantic +5.5
3% New Mexico +2
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Big Al
4* Oklahoma -16, 7:30 pm
3* San Jose St. +3, 2 pm
3* Florida St. +2.5, 3:30 pm
3* Iowa -22.5, 3:30 pm
1* Baylor +7, 3:30 pm
1* Michigan -20.5, 3:30 pm
1* Tennessee +19, 7 pm
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Doc Sports
8 kentucky-5
5 stanford+4.5
3 nd+6.5
3 kans.st+6
3 michigan.st-4.53
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WUnderdog
CFB
Baylor+7 vs iowa state
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PARLAY WINNERS SATURDAY FOOTBALL
Play Kentucky -5 over South Carolina (NCAA)
Kentucky has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in 5 consecutive games coming off a non-conference game.
Play North Carolina -12 over Georgia Tech (NCAA)
Georgia Tech has lost 6 of the last 9 games against the spread when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they have lost 9 of the last 12 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games.
Play Florida Atlantic +4.5 over Air Force (NCAA)
Florida Atlantic has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and they have covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.
Play Texas A&M -5.5 over Arkansas (NCAA)
Texas A&M has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off three or more consecutive wins.
Play Utah State +9 over Boise State (NCAA)
Utah State has covered the spread in 14 of the last 19 games when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing in the month of September.
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Stanford Steve
Nebraska +5
UCLA -4.5
Kent State +14.5
Minnesota -30.5
UTSA +3
Air Force -4.5
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Chris Fallica
Nebraska +5
North Carolina -12
Mississippi State +2.5
UTSA +3
$100 ML Parlay 0-3
Maryland Terrapins -650
Duke Blue Devils -700
Iowa Hawkeyes -2400
Utah Utes -700
BYU Cougars -2000
Florida Gators -1300
Michigan Wolverines -1300
Dogs on the ML
Nebraska Cornhuskers +175
Mississippi State Bulldogs +120
Syracuse Orange +205
Arkansas State Red Wolves +450
UTSA Roadrunners +145
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +200
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Scott Spreitzer
Florida State +2 (3U)
Oklahoma -17 (3U)
Clemson -10 (3U)
New Mexico -1 (6U)
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Vernon Croy
AZ State -14.5 (4U)
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Allen Eastman
**8-U NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR
Take #369 Kansas State (+6) over Oklahoma State
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