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Sunday 9/26/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304149) Rakuten Gold. Eagles at (304150) Orix Buffaloes
Sport/League: BSB
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 12AM EDT
Play: Rakuten Gold. Eagles -158
Brandon is the Wager Talk #1 capper in all sports profit the last 3 days, 7 days and 30 days. He is also the #1 capper in 2021 with a +180% ROI for his clients. He has a 5% play in Japanese baseball for today at 10pm Pt. Get the play now.
This is a client play for 2% that I am posting for free. Masahiro Tanaka has been a bit up and down since returning from the Yankees, but Rakuten has been on a tear and Orix is starting a reliever who has never pitched past the 3rd inning. He is backed by the worst bullpen in Japan and Orix is missing their best hitter Yoshida. Make a 2% play on the Eagles money line.
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Ralph Michaels
Event: (469) Arizona Cardinals at (470) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Arizona Cardinals -7.0 (-115)
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Andrew McInnis
Event: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) New England Patriots
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: New Orleans Saints +3.0 (-120)
I'm not as convinced as the mass betting population that the Patriots are anything special this year. The Patriots played a below-average game against the Dolphins and then played the New York Jets on the road in which Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson threw four interceptions. The Saints looked phenomenal in week one and abysmal in week 2; this game will tell us something about their identity. I'll take the three points with the Saints, a team that both a strong running game and downfield passing ability in a game I expect to be very close and down to the wire. Let's not sit here and let the solid outing against the Jets convince people the Patriots are anything too scary.
PLAY THE SAINTS.
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Teddy Covers
Event: (471) Indianapolis Colts at (472) Tennessee Titans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Tennessee Titans -5.0 (-110)
Take Tennessee (#472)
In my strong opinion, Jacob Eason is not an NFL caliber starting quarterback; very clear from anyone who watched him at Washington or watched him play in the preseason or watched him play (albeit briefly) last week against the Rams. If Eason plays, this line can and will only go in one direction: up to -7 (a ‘key number’ in NFL betting) or higher. If Carson Wentz goes off behind center with two bum ankles and a struggling offensive line trying to protect him, this line isn’t going to plummet downwards. We might see it drop to +4.5 or +4, but it’s not likely to go through any key numbers.
I think Indy is a ‘bet-against’ team right now – they’re not deep and they’re dealing with both injury and chemistry issues. So why not lock in early betting against them at -5 or -5.5; getting very much the best of the number if Wentz sits but not losing that much value if he plays. In a series where the SU winner has covered each of the last eight meetings; three of the four Titans wins in that span coming by two TD’s or more, let’s lay the points with the superior squad early in the week. Take the Titans.
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Kevin Dolan
Event: (475) Washington Football Team at (476) Buffalo Bills
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-105)
PLAY: BUFFALO BILLS -7.5
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Dave Cokin
Event: (483) Chicago Bears at (484) Cleveland Browns
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Cleveland Browns -7.0 (-115)
Bears head to Cleveland with Fields making his first NFL start. The market thinks he's better than Dalton already and they could be right as Dalton is yesterday's news. But this is still a first start and it's against a pretty capable defense. I think Cleveland is going to show a load of disguised coverage to confuse the rookie, and I expect him to make some mistakes. I'm actually more concerned with the Browns offense, which has all kinds of talent but really has not hit on all cylinders since the first half of the Chiefs game. And this is a capable Bears defense. But the key for me is the betting line, which is now a bargain in my view. The Browns were -9.5 on the lookahead and I can now get them at -7 slightly juiced. I make this game Browns -10 and I sure don't mind fading the first time starter on the road. Cleveland minus the points.
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Tony Finn
Event: (485) Cincinnati Bengals at (486) Pittsburgh Steelers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 43.0 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals entered Soldier Field this past Sunday with a season-opening overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings. However, as positive as the win was as home dogs against a more experienced and talented Vikings squad, the "Dub" came with red flags.
Cincinnati did everything but successfully execute, gifting Minnesota a victory by leisurely attempting to protect a 14-point third-quarter lead. Had the Vikes not fumbled in overtime, Cincy would likely have been in Chicago to kick off their Week 2 event against the Bears 0-1 rather than 1-0.
Cincinnati is gambling far too much with Joe Burrows working out of empty sets. The 'Cats O-Line allowed Burrow to be pressured on 34.4% of his dropbacks and surrendered five sacks to the Bears D. The Steelers new offensive scheme is a work in progress, but like last season Big Ben's offensive line isn't good enough to hold back capable defensive fronts for any extended period. Roethlisberger was pressured on 13 of his 42 dropbacks and was just 4 of 11 on pressured passes. The Bengals strength is that of which the Steelers possess, defense. Free pick is a play Under the Total
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Dwayne Bryant
Event: (473) Baltimore Ravens at (474) Detroit Lions
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110)
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The Prez
Event: (479) Los Angeles Chargers at (480) Kansas City Chiefs
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 (-105)
479 Los Angeles Chargers at 480 Kansas City Chiefs -7, 54.5
After falling to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs took several swings early this week. However, the swings thrown at coach Andy Reid, Mahomes, and the KC defense were swings and misses. Losing to the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football primetime isn't a reason for any Chief's team or fans to jump.
The Chargers were swimsuit summer sexy in the pundits preseason picks. Unfortunately, that promise was based on last year's performances by rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. The former All-Pac-12 signal-caller has thrown for 337 and 338 yards in the first two games of the season, resulting in a 1-1 overall mark after two rounds.
Unlike the Ravens, the Chargers don't have the wherewithal to diminish the production of receiver Ty Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. The Chargers will do their best to scheme and ultimately improvise Hill and Kelse with bracket coverage and double-teams, resulting in wide-outs Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle having big days. Free Pick is a play on the Chiefs minus the points at Arrowhead.
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The Prez
Event: (483) Chicago Bears at (484) Cleveland Browns
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Cleveland Browns -7.5 (-105)
483 Chicago Bears at 484 Cleveland Browns -7.5, 45
It is too easy to place Sunday's missteps on Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Justin Fields in his first career NFL start. The 1-1 Cleveland Browns have encountered negative press after just two weeks of the regular season. Most critiques have chosen to squash the Brown's chances in the AFC North division because of their mere 10-point win over Houston this past Sunday.
Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 81.6 percent of his pass attempts. The former OU Sooner has thrown for 534 yards and a touchdown. You will read and hear that Mayfield still isn't savvy enough to be dangerous in a positive fashion. That after two games, he has but one TD pass.
The Bears have been forced to move to their backup quarterback after starter Andy Dalton is injured. However, shooting the messenger has never been a successful strategy in winning a war. Mayfield's mere one TD throw this season is a direct result of the offense's potent rushing attack. The Browns are averaging over five yards per attempt on the ground. Cleveland has five different players scoring rushing TD's this season for a total of seven in two games. Chicago will have no answer for Chubb and Hunt while Mayfield quietly throws for 200-yards and two touchdowns in a double-digit Clevland win and cover.
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Andy Lang
Event: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) New England Patriots
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Alvin Kamara UNDER 98.5 yards RUSHING AND RECEIVING
Kamara hasn't gotten over this total this year, and didn't even get over it in the 38-3 win against Green Bay. Last week the Panthers took him out of the game as he only had 5 yards rushing and 25 receiving, and Bellichick is the master at taking away a teams best weapon, and it would make sense for the Patriots to take away Kamara and make turnover prone Jameis Winston beat them through the air. Kamara also hasn't been getting the receiving yards he would with Brees as his quarterback as he's gone 4 games out of his last 5 with 25 or fewer receiving yards with quarterbacks not named Drew Brees. I'll expect it to be a tough game for Kamara and for him to come in under this total.
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Rob Veno
Event: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) New England Patriots
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: New Orleans Saints +3.0 (-120)
Not sure Patriots HC and defensive wizard Bill Belichick can confuse New Orleans QB Jameis Winston to the extent he rattled Jets rookie Zach Wilson last week. Saints will need their OL and supporting skill players to step up since star RB Kamara will be focus of New England defensive game plan. Prefer the ability to downfield push New Orleans brings offensively in game where points may be tough to come by. Return of some key players this week enhances the Saints chances as well. Anticipate the visitors who are also very capable of designing and executing havoc filled defensive game plan to do so here against pedestrian Patriots offense. Focus level could be down a notch for Foxboro group which enters off a pair of heated & important divisional games. Points worth taking here in what could very well result in an outright Saints win.
Recommendation: New Orleans +3
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Jimmy Adams
Event: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) New England Patriots
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: New England Patriots -3.0 (+100)
We had an easy winner playing against the Saints in a 26-7 loss to Carolina last week, and we have a great opportunity to cash fading them again here. Mac Jones has been efficient thus far into the season, completing almost 74% of his passes. New Orleans is banged up in the secondary so we can expect Jones to find holes downfield and make some big plays. We can also expect New England to clamp down against the run and put the ball in Jameis Winston’s hands. Bill Belichick is as good as they come at disguising coverages and confusing opposing quarterbacks. We all know that Winston is prone to making mistakes, so look for the Patriots to have some key takeaways that help decide this game. Take the Patriots.
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Andy Lang
Event: (489) New York Jets at (490) Denver Broncos
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Broncos-Jets UNDER 7.5 First Quarter
The Jets just can’t score early in the games, they have 0 first quarter points so far this year, and after seeing Zach Wilson throw so many early interceptions, I’m betting that the Jets play it conservative with him early on to try and get him some confidence. Unfortunately, he is playing Denver who has a really good defense who allowed Jacksonville to score one offensive touchdown last week, and who held the Giants scoreless in the first quarter in Week 1. The Broncos haven’t been fast starters as they scored 0 first quarter points against the Giants in Week 1 and only 3 points in Week 2 against Jacksonville. I’ll expect a boring first quarter with few points.
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Bobby Ligs
Event: (491) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (492) Los Angeles Rams
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Total Under 54.5 (-110)
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Marco D'Angelo
Event: (493) Seattle Seahawks at (494) Minnesota Vikings
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 26, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110)
Minnesota sits at 0-2 and returns home to take on 1-1 Seattle. Both teams lost in gut wrenching fashion last week. Seattle blew a big lead then lost in OT while Minnesota led most of the game before trailing by 1 late and missed the game winning FG on the Final Play. Seattle’s defense was gashed at home last week by Tennessee for 532 Yards including 40 rushing attempts for 212 yards. Minnesota’s offense is built similar to Tennessee as the Vikings have a strong ground game as well with Dalvin Cook and a good passing game with Kirk Cousins who has thrown for 578 yards in 2 games. HC Zimmer is 30-16 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of MINNESOTA and is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA. Note that 0-2 home dogs in Game 3 of the season are 9-4-1 ATS the the L5 years. MINNESOTA 35-31
PLAY MINNESOTA
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MLB
NL games
St Louis (86-69) @ Cubs (67-88)
— Woodford is 1-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
— Cardinals are 4-2 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3
— He is 1-0, 3.27 in 4 games (1 start) vs Chicago.
— Cardinals have won 15 games in row.
— St Louis is 12-3 in its last 15 road games.
— Over is 9-3 in last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 59-155
— record in first 5 innings: 74-59-22
— bullpen game
— Cubs are 10-13 in last 23 games.
— Chicago is 1-9 in last ten home games.
— Over is 21-8 in last 29 games.
— scored run in first inning: 42-154
— record in first 5 innings: 59-77-18
Pittsburgh (57-97) @ Philadelphia (81-74)
— Kranick is 0-0, 7.24 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 2-5 in his starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-6
— He hasn’t pitched against Philly.
— Pirates are 9-8 in last 17 games.
— Pittsburgh is 3-12 in last 15 road games.
— over 13-8-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-154
— record in first 5 innings: 49-87-18
— bullpen game
— Phillies are 9-2 in last 11 games.
— Phillies are 47-33 at home, 34-41 on road.
— under 6-3 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 50-155
— record in first 5 innings: 65-59-31
Washington (64-91) @ Cincinnati (80-75)
— Rogers is 2-0, 2.16 in four starts.
— Washington is 2-2 in his starts.
— over 1-1-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.
— Washington is 22-48 in its last 70 games.
— Nationals are 5-9 in last 14 road games.
— over 33-16-3 last 51 games
— scored run in first inning: 50-157
— record in first 5 innings: 66-64-27
— Mahle is 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 19-12 in his starts.
— under 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 9-31
— record in first 5 innings: 18-7-6
— He is 2-1, 6.75 in three starts vs Washington.
— Cincinnati is 9-16 in its last 25 games.
— Reds are 6-8 in last 14 home games.
— under 22-10-1 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 44-155
— record in first 5 innings: 70-63-22
Mets (73-81) @ Milwaukee (93-62)
— Carrasco is 1-1, 4.13 in his last five starts.
— Mets are 5-5 in his starts.
— over 6-2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 9-10
— record in first 5 innings: 3-6-1
— He is 2-0, 1.64 in three starts vs Milwaukee.
— Mets are 3-12 in their last 15 games.
— Mets are 2-8 in last ten road games.
— over 7-6 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 41-154
— record in first 5 innings: 58-78-18
— Peralta is 0-0, 3.45 in his last three starts.
— Milwaukee is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 7-26
— record in first 5 innings: 12-6-8
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.
— Brewers lost five of last seven games.
— Milwaukee is 12-8 in last 20 home games.
— over 8-5 last 13 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 52-155
— record in first 5 innings: 79-48-28
San Francisco (101-54) @ Colorado (71-83)
— Gausman is 2-1, 4.91 in his last six starts.
— Giants are 20-11 in his starts.
— over 11-2 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 10-31
— record in first 5 innings: 18-9-4
— He is 2-1, 4.76 in five starts vs Colorado.
— Giants are 17-5 in last 22 games.
— Giants are 10-1 in last 11 road games.
— Over is 12-7 in last 19 games.
— scored run in first inning: 52-155
— record in first 5 innings: 82-53-20
— Senzatela is 2-0, 2.80 in his last seven starts.
— Rockies are 11-15 in his starts.
— under 8-1 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 7-26
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-6
— He is 5-1, 4.40 in seven starts vs SF.
— Colorado is 6-5 in its last 11 games.
— Rockies are 46-31 at home, 25-52 on road.
— over 8-4 last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 51-154
— record in first 5 innings: 62-69-23
Atlanta (82-72) @ San Diego (78-77)
— bullpen game
— Braves won six of last eight games.
— Atlanta is 8-8 in last 16 road games.
— under 19-12-4 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 55-154
— record in first 5 innings: 79-52-23
— Musgrove is 1-1, 5.60 in his last three starts.
— San Diego is 16-13 in his starts.
— under 14-14-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-12-3
— He is 2-1, 5.55 in five starts vs Atlanta.
— Padres are 12-27 in last 39 games.
— San Diego is 4-10 in last 14 home games.
— over 18-7-1 last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 44-154
— record in first 5 innings: 63-71-20
Los Angeles (99-56) @ Arizona (50-105)
— Urias is 5-0, 2.34 in his last six starts.
— Dodgers are 9-0 in his last nine starts.
— under 8-2-1 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 7-30
— record in first 5 innings: 21-6-3
— He is 3-0, 1.62 in three starts vs Arizona this year.
— Dodgers are 40-16 in last 56 games.
— Dodgers are 8-7 in last 15 road games.
— under 23-11-3 last 37 games
— scored run in first inning: 50-155
— record in first 5 innings: 84-49-22
— Mejia is 0-2, 7.20 in three starts.
— Arizona is 0-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against LA.
— Arizona lost 20 of last 26 games.
— Arizona is 2-9 in its last 11 home games.
— over 19-7-1 last 27 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-155
— record in first 5 innings: 56-85-14
AL games
Texas (55-98) @ Baltimore (49-105)
— Dunning is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
— Texas is 8-15 in his starts.
— over 11-10-2
— allowed run in first inning: 10-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-2
— He threw 6 shutout IP in one start vs Baltimore.
— Texas is 2-9 in last 11 games.
— Texas is 7-6 in last 13 road games.
— under 7-2 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-155
— record in first 5 innings: 53-84-18
— Means is 1-1, 2.35 in his last five starts.
— Baltimore is 8-16 in his starts.
— under 6-0 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-4
— He is 0-1, 1.37 in three starts vs Texas.
— Orioles are 11-39 in their last 50 games.
— Baltimore is 25-53 on road, 25-52 at home.
— under 9-3 last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 50-155
— record in first 5 innings: 50-84-21
White Sox (87-68) @ Cleveland (76-78)
— Giolito is 1-0, 3.00 in his last five starts.
— White Sox are 15-14 in his starts.
— over 12-5 last 17
— allowed run in first inning: 7-29
— record in first 5 innings: 15-9-5
— He is 2-3, 2.21 in nine starts vs Cleveland.
— Chicago is 14-13 in last 27 games.
— White Sox are 8-13 in last 21 road games.
— under 13-6 last 19 games.
— scored run in first inning: 44-155
— record in first 5 innings: 84-46-25
— McKenzie is 3-2, 2.65 in his last six starts.
— Indians are 10-12 in his starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 4-22
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-4
— He is 0-1, 11.15 in four starts vs Chicago this year.
— Cleveland is 18-17 in last 35 games.
— Indians are 4-10 in last 14 home games.
— over 8-6 last 14 games
— scores run in first inning: 45-154
— record in first 5 innings: 61-72-21
Kansas City (70-84) @ Detroit (75-79)
— Bubic is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
— Kansas City is 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
— under 7-2-1 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 9-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-2
— He is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts vs Detroit.
— Royals are 11-14 in their last 25 games.
— Royals are 6-3 in last nine road games.
— under 38-19-6 last 63 games.
— scores run in first inning: 40-157
— record in first 5 innings: 59-75-23
— Peralta is 1-0, 0.53 in his last three starts.
— Detroit is 9-7 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 10-3-3
— He allowed 5 runs in 7 IP in 2 games (1 start) vs KC.
— Detroit is 10-4 in its last 14 games.
— Detroit is 7-2 in last nine home games.
— under 32-15-3 last 50 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-154
— record in first 5 innings: 26-26-8 last 60
Toronto (86-69) @ Minnesota (69-86)
— Manoah is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 9-1 in his last ten starts.
— under 4-1-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 1-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Minnesota.
— Toronto is 2-4 in last six games.
— Blue Jays are 11-5 in last 16 road games.
— Under is 5-0 in last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 43-155
— record in first 5 innings: 36-23-8 last 67
— Jax is 0-3, 9.96 in his last six starts.
— Twins are 6-6 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-12
— record in first 5 innings: 2-7-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Toronto.
— Minnesota is 11-9 in its last 20 games.
— Twins are 4-8 in last 12 home games.
— over 8-7 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 56-154
— record in first 5 innings: 51-76-27
Houston (91-64) @ Oakland (84-71)
— Odorizzi is 1-1, 2.45 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 11-10 in his starts.
— over 4-1-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-21
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-3
— He is 1-4, 4.03 in eight starts vs Oakland.
— Astros are 14-12 in last 26 games.
— Astros are 6-4 in last ten road games.
— over 12-6-3 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 54-155
— record in first 5 innings: 83-50-22
— Blackburn is 1-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.
— A’s are 3-4 in his starts.
— under 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3
— He allowed 14 runs in 6.1 IP in two games (1 start) vs Houston.
— A’s are 16-22 in their last 38 games.
— Oakland is 2-6 in its last eight home games.
— Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 45-155
— record in first 5 innings: 71-60-24
Seattle (85-70) @ Angels (74-81)
— Gonzales is 4-0, 4.50 in his last five starts.
— Mariners are 14-9 in his starts.
— under 9-3 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-4
— He is 8-1, 3.62 in 16 starts vs Anaheim.
— Seattle is 17-9 in last 26 games.
— Seattle is 14-4 in last 18 road games.
— over 15-5-1 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 49-155
— record in first 5 innings: 68-65-22
— Ohtani is 1-1, 5.32 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 13-9 in his starts.
— over 11-11
— allowed run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 12-6-4
— He is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Seattle.
— Angels lost seven of last nine games.
— Angels are 7-10 in last 17 home games.
— under 7-6-1 last 14 home games
— scored run in first inning: 45-155
— record in first 5 innings: 64-73-18
Bronx (88-67) @ Boston (88-67)
— Montgomery is 1-1, 3.91 in his last five starts.
— New York is 15-12 in his starts.
— under 12-3 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 9-27
— record in first 5 innings: 9-15-3
— He is 0-2, 3.68 in four starts vs Boston this year.
— New York is 10-4 in its last 14 games.
— New York is 6-7 in last 13 road games.
— under 7-4 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 35-155
— record in first 5 innings: 66-57-32
— Rodriguez is 3-1, 4.33 in his last five starts.
— Boston is 18-11 in his starts.
— under 14-14-1
— allowed run in first inning: 9-29
— record in first 5 innings: 15-11-3
— He is 2-0, 3.00 in four starts vs New York this year.
— Boston is 9-8 in its last 17 games.
— Red Sox are 11-6 in last 17 home games.
— over 12-7 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 52-155
— record in first 5 innings: 69-62-24
Interleague games
Miami (64-90) @ Tampa Bay (96-59)
— Luzardo is 0-1, 6.41 in his last four starts.
— Marlins are 6-4 in his starts.
— over 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 4-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.
— Marlins are 7-9 in last 16 games.
— Miami is 5-17 in last 22 road games.
— under 19-13-2 last 34 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-155
— record in first 5 innings: 57-74-24
— Baz allowed 2 runs in 5 IP in his first MLB start.
— Rays are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.
— Tampa Bay is 8-8 in its last 16 games.
— Rays are 17-7 in last 24 home games.
— over 24-17-5 last 46 games.
— scored run in first inning: 48-155
— record in first 5 innings: 67-56-32
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NFL
Sunday games
Arizona (2-0) @ Jacksonville (0-2)
— Arizona won its first two games, scoring 72 points.
— Cardinals have nine TD’s on 23 drives; they scored 24 in first half both games.
— Arizona has 55 points on nine drives to red zone (6.11)
— Last five years, Arizona is 5-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Cardinals are 10-15 ATS last 25 games vs AFC teams.
— Arizona has 11 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have only three.
— Jaguars have now lost 17 games in a row.
— Jacksonville gave up 30 ppg in first two games this year.
— Jacksonville was outscored 37-14 in first half of games.
— Last 2+ years, Jacksonville is 5-8 ATS as home underdogs.
— Jaguars converted 7 of 22 third down plays.
— Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in last dozen non-divisional home games.
— Arizona won last three series games, by 14-13-3 points.
— Cardinals are 1-1 in Jacksonville (last visit in ’09)
Indianapolis (0-2) @ Tennessee (1-1)
— Colts lost home games 28-16 to Seattle, 27-24 to Rams.
— Indy gave up 9.3/8.7 yards/pass attempt in those games.
— QB Wentz sprained both ankles LW; his backup has 0 career starts.
— Colts are 6-3 ATS in last nine AFC South road tilts.
— Under Reich, Colts are 7-6-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Indy has only 26 points in eight red zone drives.
— Tennessee won 33-30 in OT at Seattle LW; they lost 38-13 at home to Arizona.
— Titans were outscored 48-15 in first half of those games.
— Henry ran ball 35 times for 182 yards, three TD’s LW.
— Last 3+ years, Titans are 7-9 ATS as home favorites.
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers, lost field position by 17-6 yards.
— Tannehill threw for 347 yards LW; Titans gained 532 yards.
— Home side lost last four series games.
— Colts won last three visits to Nashville, by 16-2-17 points.
— Teams split last eight meetings overall.
Baltimore (1-1) @ Detroit (0-2)
— Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT), won 36-35 last week.
— Ravens ran ball for 440 yards in first two games.
— Ravens have 8 TD’s on 23 drives.
— Last 2+ years, Baltimore is 8-5 ATS as road favorite.
— Last two years, Ravens are 15-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Ravens have scored 40 points on six red zone drives.
— Lions lost opener 41-33, lost 35-17 Monday in Green Bay.
— Lions led Green Bay at half, were outscored 21-0 in 2nd half.
— Detroit gave up 11.5 yards/pass attempt in opener, 7.6 LW.
— Detroit is 10-19 ATS last 29 games as home underdogs.
— Last six years, Lions are 10-14 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Goff is 0-9 SU (1-8 ATS) with coach other than McVay.
— Ravens won last four series games; last one was 44-20 in ’17.
— This is Baltimore’s first visit to Detroit since 2013.
Washington (1-1) @ Buffalo (1-1)
— Washington split first two games, decided by total of 5 points.
— Washington has extra time to prep, playing on Thursday LW.
— Washington converted only 7-23 third down plays so far.
— Last three years, under is 15-9 in their road games.
— Washington is 3-6 ATS in last nine games vs AFC teams.
— Last five years, Washington is 19-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers, spanked Miami 35-0 LW.
— Buffalo has given up only one offensive TD on 20 drives.
— Last 4+ years, Bills are 11-8-1 ATS as home favorite.
— Last two years, Buffalo is 7-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
— McDermott is 18-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Buffalo outscored first two foes 24-0 in first half.
— Bills won seven of last eight series games.
— Washington last last four trips to Buffalo, all by 14+ points.
— Washington’s last win in Buffalo? 1987.
New Orleans (1-1) @ New England (1-1)
— Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3, got drilled 26-7 in Carolina.
— Saints are 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games on artificial turf.
— Saints scored TD’s on all five of their red zone drives.
— Last 7 years, Saints are 13-14-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Last 3+ years, New Orleans is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— In his career, Payton is 28-20-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Patriots lost opener 17-16 to Miami, beat Jets 25-6 LW.
— Patriots converted only 7-28 third down plays.
— New England scored only 26 points on 7 red zone drives.
— QB’s faced so far: Tagovailoa, Wilson, Winston.
— Last 6+ years, Patriots are 27-15-3 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their post-Brady games.
— Brady, Gronk, Bucs visit Foxboro next week.
— New England won five of last six series games.
— Patriots won last two meetings, 30-27/36-20
— Saints lost last three visits to Foxboro.
LA Chargers (1-1) @ Kansas City (1-1)
— Chargers split first two games, decided by total of seven points.
— Bolts converted 19 of first 31 third down plays.
— Chargers gained 424-408 TY, but Dallas ran for 198 yards against them.
— Last 6+ years, Bolts are 19-11-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Chargers are 11-6-1 ATS in last 18 AFC West road games.
— Chargers turned ball over four times in two games (-2).
— Chiefs beat Cleveland 32-29 in opener, lost 36-35 to Ravens LW.
— Chiefs gave up 457-481 TY in the two games.
— KC had 22-21 points at halftime of first two games.
— Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 15-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last five years, KC 9-6 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Chiefs allowed 153-251 YR in first two games.
— Chiefs won 12 of last 14 series games.
— Chargers won two of last three visits to Arrowhead.
Atlanta (0-2) @ NY Giants (0-2)
— Falcons gave up 80 points in losing first two games.
— Atlanta lost field position in those games, by 15-13 yards.
— Falcons have given up nine TD’s on 22 drives.
— Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
— Falcons converted 9-29 third down plays so far.
— Falcons trailed 28-25 after 3 quarters LW; they threw two pick-6’s in last 7:53.
— Giants lost first two games, giving up 27-30 points.
— On six drives to red zone, Giants have scored only 19 points.
— Last four years, Giants are 2-5-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last 4+ years, Giants are 9-23-1 ATS overall at home.
— Giants gave up 420-407 TY in first two games.
— Giants had extra time to prep, playing on Thursday LW.
— Atlanta won three of last four series games.
— Falcons lost three of last four at NYG (last meeting here 2015)
Chicago (1-1) @ Cleveland (1-1)
— Rookie QB Fields makes his first NFL start here.
— Bears lost opener 34-14 at Rams, beat Bengals 20-17 at home LW.
— Chicago has scored 3 TD’s on 17 drives; they had defensive TD LW.
— Last 2+ years, Chicago is 4-7 ATS as road underdog.
— Bears averaged only 4.4/3.1 yards/pass play in first two games.
— Nick Foles is the backup; will they use him at all?
— Browns split first two games, scoring 29-31 points.
— Browns ran ball for 153-156 yards in first two games.
— Cleveland averaged 10.1/8.7 yards/pass in first two games.
— Browns are 11-16-1 ATS in last 28 games as home favorite.
— Last six years, Cleveland is 9-15 ATS vs NFC teams (4-0 LY)
— Browns have nine plays of 20+ yards; they’ve also given up nine.
— Chicago won last three series games, by 24-7-17 points.
— Bears were last in Cleveland in 2013; they won 38-31.
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1)
— Cincinnati edged Vikings 27-24 in opener, lost 20-17 at Chicago LW.
— Bengals converted only 9-26 third down plays so far.
— Bengals gave up only 83 PY LW, but turned ball over four times (-3).
— Opponents scored defensive TD, also started 4 drives in Cincy territory.
— Last 2+ years, Bengals are 7-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last seven years, Bengals are 13-8 ATS in AFC North road games.
— Roethlisberger is dealing with pectoral injury, is expected to play.
— Steelers split first two games, losing at home to Raiders last week.
— Steelers have been outgained by 56.5 yards/game.
— Pitt has scored only three TD’s on 18 drives this season.
— Last 8+ years, Pittsburgh is 28-24 ATS as home favorites.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 19-7 in first half of games.
— Steelers won 14 of last 16 series games.
— Bengals lost last five visits here, four by 8+ points.
— Teams split their two meetings LY.
Miami (1-1) @ Las Vegas (2-0)
— QB Brissett (12-20 as starter) makes his first start for Miami.
— Miami split first two games, scoring two TD’s on 19 drives.
— Dolphins gained total of only 475 yards in two games.
— Miami has given up 11 plays of 20+ yards, has only 3 themselves.
— Last 2+ years, Miami is 9-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dolphins were outrushed 268-145 in first two games.
— Raiders pulled two upsets already, scoring 33-26 points.
— Las Vegas outscored opponents 40-23 in second half of games.
— Raiders threw ball for 782 yards in two games.
— Last six years, Las Vegas is 9-11 ATS as home favorite.
— Opponents have converted only 8-24 third down plays.
— Raiders have outscored foes 12-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Dolphins won seven of last eight series games.
— Miami won 26-25 here LY; they won last three visits to Oakland/Las Vegas.
NJ Jets (0-2) @ Denver (2-0)
— Jets lost first two games, scoring two TD’s on 22 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 29-3 in first half.
— Jets lost field position by 14-15 yards.
— Last 5+ years, Jets are 11-22-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 5+ years, Gang Green is 5-11 ATS as double digit dogs.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; Jets are 9-26 on third down so far.
— Denver won first two games, 27-13 @ Giants, 23-13 @ Jaguars.
— Second week in row they’re facing a rookie QB.
— Denver outscored opponents 30-12 in second half of games.
— Last four years, Broncos are 3-8-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Denver is 8-4 ATS in last dozen home openers.
— Broncos outgained first two foes by 157.5 yards/game.
— Broncos won four of last five series games.
— Jets lost three of last four trips to Denver; their last win here was in ’10.
— Broncos beat Jets 37-28 in New Jersey LY.
Tampa Bay (2-0) @ LA Rams (2-0)
— Bucs beat Dallas 31-29, pulled away from Atlanta 48-25.
— Tampa Bay had two pick 6’s LW; they led 28-25 after 3 quarters.
— Buccaneers already have nine TD’s (on 24 drives)
— Six of their nine TD drives were less than 60 yards.
— Bucs won field position in both games, by 6-13 yards.
— Under Arians, Tampa Bay is 9-7 ATS on the road.
— Rams beat Bears in opener 34-14; edged Colts 27-24 LW.
— Rams averaged 11.6/8.7 yards/pass attempt first two games.
— Last two years, Rams are 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— LA has seven TD’s, four FGA’s on first 17 drives.
— Under McVay, LA is 7-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Rams are 6-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium.
— Rams won six of last seven series games.
— Rams (+4.5) won 27-24 at Tampa Bay LY.
— Buccaneers lost three of last four visits to St Louis/LA.
Seattle (1-1) @ Minnesota (0-2)
— Seahawks blew 24-9 halftime lead, lost 33-30 OT to Titans LW.
— Seattle scored 29 ppg in first two games (8 TD’s on 21 drives).
— Seattle led 21-10/24-9 at half, was outscored 30-13 in 2nd half.
— Last 5+ years, Seahawks are 8-13-1 ATS as road favorite.
— Seattle won field position by 10-6 yards in first two games.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3/9.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Vikings lost first two games by total of four points.
— LW, Vikings’ K missed 37-yard FG; Arizona’s K made a 62-yarder.
— Minnesota scored 57 points so far, but allowed 7 TD’s on 25 drives.
— First two games, Minnesota ran ball 49 times, threw 82 passes
— Vikings are 5-1 ATS in last six home openers.
— Opponents have scored 41 points on seven red zone drives.
— Seattle won last seven series games.
— Seahawks won last two visits here, 38-7/10-9.
— Seahawks haven’t been to Minnesota since 2016.
Green Bay (1-1) @ San Francisco (2-0)
— Short week, long travel for Packers this week.
— Green Bay lost opener 38-3, beat Detroit 35-17 LW.
— Packers outscored Detroit 21-0 in 2nd half LW; they trailed at half.
— Green Bay has only five plays of 20+ yards so far.
— Last two years, Packers were 5-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Aaron Rodgers grew up four hours from Santa Clara.
— 49ers won pair of road tilts; 41-33 @ Detroit, 17-11 @ Philly.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Niners are 4-12-1 ATS as home favorites
— 49ers have 11 plays of 20+ yards already, but they’ve given up 10.
— 49ers are 0-4 ATS in last four home openers.
— Niners have only takeaway (-2) in first two games.
— 49ers won six of last nine series games.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.
— Aaron Rodgers grew up in Chico, Ca, four hours from Santa Clara.
Philadelphia (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
— Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, lost 17-11 at home to 49ers.
— Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, outgained SF 328-306.
— Philly has eight plays of 20+ yards, has allowed only three.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— First two games, Philly ran ball for 162 yards/game.
— Last three years, Eagles are 4-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas lost 31-29 in Tampa, nipped Chargers 20-17 LW.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in two games (+4).
— Last 4 years, Dallas is 9-3 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS in last five home openers.
— Dallas has nine plays of 20+ yards, but has allowed 12 of them.
— Last four years, Cowboys are 9-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Home side won last five series games.
— Eagles lost last three visits here, by 6 (OT), 27,20 points.
— Cowboys are 5-2 overall, in last seven series games.
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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
September 26, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
It's closing night at Hawthorne Racecourse as Illinois harness racing will return on January 7. There are mandatory payouts in all pools. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 9
2-Walkin Papers (6-1)-Willis 2-year-old makes only the 4th start of the year and comes off a good qualifier on 9-18. Appears to have been handled cautiously, this will be the 3rd start on Lasix and maybe the wrapper comes off tonight.
5-Reno Dinero (9/2)-Broke its maiden on 9-10 with a .56 back half to surge home and then was compromised with a soft pace. This is the 3rd start back in town and Leonard may provide a more aggressive steer and be in striking range turning for the wire.
6-Sunny And Eighty (5/2)-Winner in 3 of 6 returns to Haw after facing stakes caliber fillies at HoP without any success. Wilfong should have her forwardly placed and fits much better here. May return to winnings ways tonight.
Race 10
2-Sirods Skeeter (3-1)-Took advantage of an efficient trip to break maiden last week and now bumps up. Still fits with these and might be able to follow the same script and keep winning.
6- Upbeat Big Guy (4-1)-One race can mean little or a lot. Guy is 1-30 lifetime but showed some life in last with a .57 back half to lose by a neck. That start was against 4 from this field, so will use and look for some juice in the Pick 4 payout.
7-JK Rockin Roll (7/5)-Drops to a better spot and on paper looks the part of a 7/5 morning line chalk. But this 3-year-old has only 9 lifetime starts and didn't hold the lead versus better as an odds-on chalk in last. Likes to race on the point and if gets there without using much gas it should be picture time.
Race 11
2-Dilly Dilly Time (4-1)-Finished 3rd off a sick scratch in last but as usual a slow start hurt. Has a chance to make some noise at this level but is pace dependent unless Leonard can get this filly to start better. Will take a swing with Team Leonard versus this crew.
6-Zero Net Profit (9/2)-Steps-up, as does everyone who appears to have the best chance. The last 3 starts have been good and were the 1st at Haw. Looking for another strong try and Wilfong could race on the lead as there isn't much gate speed inside.
7-Love Is Hill (5/2)-Ohio bred has been successful racing on the fair circuit at home and has a shot versus this field. Won at Delaware County on 9-21 and claimed a 155.2 mark at Hawthorne on 6-20.
Race 12
3-Rollinwitdaponyzzz (7/2)-Has the speed to beat this bunch and Wilfong knows well. Likes to race on the point and should get there and look to battle the one below down the long stretch.
4-Fox Valley Lynyrd (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight, the last at this class off an efficient trip provided by Wilfong. Leonard is back between the pipes to steer for his dad and if the pace is solid this 4-year-old could roll by again.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,5,6/2,6,7/2,6,7/3,4
Total Bet=$27
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