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Service Plays Saturday 11/13/21
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Essler 3* GOM
Missouri Over 55
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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-3. Season: 19-31)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 5-1. Season: 31-23)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Plays
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No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 62) at No. 13 Baylor Bears
Fallica: I like the fact the number dropped .5 point and I like the fact OU played what I think was its most complete game of the season in its last game vs. Texas Tech. Caleb Williams has been the biggest impact player in college football this year and I sense he again will have a Heisman-worthy moment Saturday in the early kick in Waco. OU is well aware this is an upset trap and that it has its future in its hands and I suspect they will show up off the idle week with a great effort.
Pick: Oklahoma -5.5
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Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-10.5, 52)
Stanford Steve: It looks as if Grayson McCall, the Chants quarterback, will be out for this one. He didn't play last week and Bryce Carpenter stepped in and got the job done in what were horrific weather conditions. When I look at the Panthers, I really like what their head coach Sean Elliott does week in and week out in getting his team prepared to play. They battled Auburn earlier in the year and could have won (led in 4th quarter) and last game they gave Louisiana all they could handle, eventually losing 21-17. I think the Panthers hang around here. We'll take the points and the road team.
Pick: Georgia State +10.5 (Coastal Carolina 21, Georgia State 17)
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No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 56.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels
Stanford Steve: The Aggies have a big advantage on both lines of scrimmage in this matchup. Most of the time a good offensive line and defensive line travel for road games. Matt Corral probably still won't be 100% but he is still as talented as there is, but will he be able to avoid trouble when it arises? We'll have to wait and see. I do expect Ole Miss to come out on fire and take chances all over the field, so A&M will have to withstand the early fury, but I think they can with controlling both lines of scrimmage. We'll take the road team and give the points
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (Texas A&M 30, Ole Miss 24)
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Washington State Cougars at No. 3 Oregon Ducks (-14, 57)
Fallica: Tricky spot for Oregon, which has been an awful favorite under Mario Cristobal, especially at Autzen Stadium. Last week the Ducks beat their biggest rival in an ugly, bad weather game in Seattle which saw Anthony Brown struggle. Next week is one Oregon must have in Utah if it is to keep its playoff hopes alive. In comes pesky two-touchdown dog Wazzu, which has played very well since Nick Rolovich's firing. Much credit to the coaches that remain getting the Cougs ready to play, and the players who have rallied. It might not be enough to pull the outright upset, but I think 14 is a tad high.
Pick: Washington State +14
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No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats (-23.5, 57) at South Florida Bulls
Fallica: One of these weeks the Bearcats will put a complete game together. Last week may have been a bit too much for them -- first week of the rankings, GameDay in town -- now they face one of the worst teams in the league. They know where they stand in the CFP -- they actually moved up a spot despite the scare -- and should be able to name their score vs. the Bulls.
Pick: Cincinnati -23.5
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets (continued)
Pick: Cincinnati -23.5
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No. 16 NC State Wolfpack at No. 12 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.5, 66.5)
Fallica: Often when a team suffers its first loss, there is a letdown the following week as well. NC State's defense will offer Wake Forest a much stiffer test than UNC did last week and I expect the physicality of NC State to walk out with a win.
Pick: NC State +1.5
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Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (-12.5, 55.5)
Stanford Steve: The season has not gone as some hoped in Palo Alto. Now, David Shaw might do something he has never done as a head coach... start a true freshman quarterback. I'll take the home team and give the points.
Pick: Oregon State -12.5 (Oregon State 34, Stanford 10)
Fallica: Beavers a great opportunity to bounce back from an embarrassing loss and put a big number up on a team which doesn't seem capable of scoring without McKee at quarterback.
Pick: Oregon State -12.5
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Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-3, 55.5)
Fallica: The Orange have been an ATM this year, covering every game. I don't expect that trend to stop here as Syracuse has the better defense, the better RB in Sean Tucker, and may face a Louisville team without Malik Cunnigham.
Pick: Syracuse +3
The Bear's money-line parlay
Last Week: -200
Season: -909
$100 returns $152
Cincinnati Bearcats -2000
Wisconsin Badgers -2400
Utah Utes -2400
Appalachian State Mountaineers -2000
UCLA Bruins -750
Oregon State Beavers -450
Iowa State Cyclones -400
Kentucky Wildcats -1600
Georgia Bulldogs -1450
Ohio State Buckeyes -1450
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-5, -3.6 units
Season: 23-40, +2.6 units
Syracuse Orange +135
Washington Huskies +190
Charlotte 49ers +215
Nevada Wolf Pack +125
NC State Wolfpack +110
Bear bytes
New Mexico State Aggies at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Dating back to 1989, 50-point favorites in FBS vs. FBS games are 3-14 ATS. Alabama hasn't covered either of their two games in this spot, including as a 55-point favorite over the Aggies is 2019.
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 13 Baylor Bears
Baylor is 5-0 ATS at home this year, including an outright win over Iowa State in the only instance the Bears were a home dog. Under Lincoln Riley, OU is 5-12-1 ATS with two outright losses as a road favorite. Six of the last seven such games have been decided by seven points or fewer (4-2 W-L).
No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
In 25 games as an underdog under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS with 10 outright wins. That includes a 7-1 ATS mark with two outright wins as a double-digit dog.
With a win, Purdue can become the 8th team to defeat three AP Top 6 teams in a single regular season and the first to do it as an unranked team in any of the three.
In the last two weeks, Ohio State has scored just two TD in nine red zone trips (23 TD in 29 drives in first seven games). C.J. Stroud has a QBR of 8.6 in the red zone in that span (78 prior to the last two games)
Washington State Cougars at No. 3 Oregon Ducks
Oregon is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and has failed to cover seven straight games as a double-digit favorite.lsu
Dating back to 2010, Washington State has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Maryland is 2-9 ATS vs. ranked teams under Mike Locksley and has failed to cover eight straight Big Ten games.
Dating back to 2018, Michigan State is 3-11 ATS with four outright losses as a double-digit favorite (1-2, one outright loss under Mel Tucker).
No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels
The Aggies have covered eight straight as a road favorite (7-0 ATS under Jimbo Fisher)
No. 25 Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers
Arkansas is 1-14 outright in road games since 2018, (1-6 under Sam Pittman).
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets (continued)
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies are 2-7 ATS with six outright losses in their last nine games as a favorite. In addition, Tech is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite.
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys have covered seven straight since a five-point win over Tulsa. Oklahoma State has not allowed more than 24 points in a game this year.
No. 6 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions
Under James Franklin, Penn State is just 2-12 vs. AP Top 10 opponents. Michigan under Jim Harbaugh, isn't much better, as the Wolverines are 2-9 on the road vs. ranked teams. However, both wins came against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.
Michigan could use a better start in State College. In their last two trips, the Wolverines have been outscored 21-0 and outgained 318-133 in the first quarter.
Samford Bulldogs at Florida Gators
Of the 48 Power 5 teams to play at least eight games vs. Power 5 teams Since December 6, 2020, only Missouri (1-7) has a worse record than Florida (2-8). Colorado and Nebraska are also 2-8 in that span.
Worst Win Percentage vs. Power 5 Teams Among Power 5 since December 6, 2020:
Missouri 1-7, .124
Florida 2-8, .200
Colorado 2-8, .200
Nebraska 2-8, .200
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles
The Hurricanes are seeking their fifth straight win over FSU, that coming on the heels of a seven-game losing streak to the Seminoles. Miami last won five straight vs. FSU from 2000-2004.
Miami's last five games have been decided by a combined 13 points. The Canes have failed to cover five straight and seven of eight as a favorite vs. FBS opponents.
Northwestern Wildcats at No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers
In its last five games, Wisconsin has allowed 3 touchdowns and forced 13 turnovers. The Badgers have won those five games by 23.2 PPG.
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25* CFB BIG 12 UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR!
Handicapper: Hollywood Sports
League: NCAAF
Competition: Oklahoma vs Baylor
Time: Saturday, November 13, 12:00 pm ET
Bet Type: Point Spread
Pick: Baylor +6.5 (-110)
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Adam Trigger
NC St +1.5 (4%)
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Vernon Croy
4* Northwestern
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Scott Spreitzer
8-Unit College Football Game of the Year - Arizona St -5.5
3* NC St
3* Arkansas
3* Maryland
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Doug Upstone
7* TX A&M
4* SMU
3* Baylor
3* WA St
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Doc's Sports
7* Miami FL
4* Oregon St
4* Nevada
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Vegas Sports Informer
6* Washington St
3* MTSU
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6* UTEP
4* OK St
4* MTSU
3* MS St
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Jason Sharpe
5* SD St
4* Miami FL
4* Wake Forest
3* East Carolina
3* Ole Miss
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Saturday card has the PAC 12 Play o the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Going late, a 2x perfect 6* and the BIG 10 Game of the Month, there is also an NBA Top Play and College Hoops. Comp play below
The College Football Comp Play for Saturday is on NC. ST. at 7:00 eastern. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ats vs winning teams and have covered 8 straight after passing for more than 275 yards. They take on what could be a dejected Wake Forest team that had their perfect season ruined with a blown lead loss to North Carolina. Now they take on an even better NC. St team. The Deacons fit a late season database system that plays against teams that are off their initial loss of the year and they are 1-4 ats off a loss and are ranked 105th in the nation on defense. NC. St has the 6th ranked offense and 18th ranked defense. Look for NC.St to get the win.. On Saturday a Top Level Card is up and led by the PAC 12 Game of the Year, a Late Executive Level TIER 1, The BIG 10 Game of the Month, an Early 2x Perfect 6*, Early Season College Hoops system plays and NBA Top play. See us on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the Comp play. Play on NC. St Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
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Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks:
CFB 29-0 ATS 4☆GOW.....BAYLOR
16-0 ATS CFB PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB PLAY.... COLORADO STATE
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Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (23-22 overall, 2-2 last week), Bill Connelly (27-22-1, 5-0), Tyler Fulghum (11-8, 2-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (21-18, 3-0) and David M. Hale (14-13-1, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Intro by Doug Kezirian
November is a time for college football to take center stage, with various schools making final pushes to become bowl eligible and others challenging for conference titles. However, oddsmakers are most vulnerable with a sport that is just starting.
"College basketball is a bear right now. You can do a lot of reading and get yourself familiar with these teams, but the first month or so is very, very difficult," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, alluding to the opening week of 358 Division I schools hitting the hardwood with incoming freshmen and a record number of transfers.
Given that sportsbooks do not hire more staffing for these stretches, one would assume this additional oddsmaking volume compromises the house across the board, including with college football, but that's not the case. "It's actually not harder because the power ratings are tighter," Avello said. "At the beginning of the year, there are a lot of adjustments to be made, but when you move to this time of the year, the ratings from week to week don't move too much."
Four ranked matchups headline this weekend's card, and Avello does not anticipate one particular
matchup drawing an overwhelming handle.
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Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (23-22 overall, 2-2 last week), Bill Connelly (27-22-1, 5-0), Tyler Fulghum (11-8, 2-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (21-18, 3-0) and David M. Hale (14-13-1, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's best bets
Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-13.5, 48.5), 9 p.m. ET
Connelly: It's very, very difficult to beat Wyoming by two touchdowns. The Cowboys haven't been good enough offensively to challenge in the Mountain West -- they averaged 9.5 points per game over a four-game losing streak -- but they limit big plays and rank 21st in defensive SP+. Fresno State did beat them by 17 during the losing streak, but (a) Wyoming outgained the Bulldogs by 0.6 yards per play in that game and suffered a minus-5 turnover margin, and (b) the Cowboy offense might be showing signs of life? They scored 31 points and averaged 6.5 yards per play last week against a strong Colorado State defense.
Boise State is coming off of maybe its two best performances of the season and will probably win, but SP+ projects the Broncos by only 8.1 points, and 8-10 sounds about right to me.
Pick: Wyoming +13.5
Saturday's best bets
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 62.5) at No. 13 Baylor Bears, Noon ET
Fortenbaugh: Since making the switch at quarterback from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams, the Sooners are averaging an astounding 48.5 points per game. But as Newton's Third Law of Motion has taught us, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." The "reaction," in this case, is the Oklahoma defense falling apart to the tune of surrendering an average of 30.7 points per game since the transition at quarterback. This current trend sets up nicely for an over bet, especially when you consider a Baylor program that ranks top 20 in scoring offense (36.3 PPG) and eighth in yards per play.
Pick: Over 62.5
No. 24 Utah Utes (-24, 54) at Arizona Wildcats, 2 p.m. ET
Kezirian: After swearing off the Utes earlier this season, I just cannot help myself. They are finally playing to their potential, now that Cameron Rising has taken over starting quarterback duties. They just waxed Stanford 52-7 in Palo Alto, and I expect a similar performance in Tucson.
Arizona is one of the nation's worst teams. The Wildcats beat Cal last week but only because the Golden Bears were missing numerous players due to COVID-19 protocol. Arizona got its first win and now will resume regularly scheduled programming of being awful. I know Utah has Oregon on deck, but the Utes' style will lend itself to counteract that issue. They pound the rock and play tough defense. Arizona will fold like a cheap suit.
Pick: Utah -24, Utah first half -13.5, Arizona team total under 15
Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-10.5, 52), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: How much is Grayson McCall worth? Coastal's star quarterback missed last week's game against Georgia Southern and is evidently out for at least a couple more weeks with injury; that's obviously a red flag when it comes to betting on the Chants.
Here's the deal, though. Backup quarterback Bryce Carpenter is pretty good. He wasn't asked to do a darn thing last week against Georgia Southern -- he was 13 for 20 for just 85 yards -- but he completed 66% of his passes with a decent 137 passer rating back in the pre-McCall days of 2019. The Chants still covered last week (if you grabbed them at -19.5 or lower, anyway), and while you'd expect SP+ to be overselling Coastal since it's not adjusted for injury, it projects the Chants by 20.5. Is McCall 10 points better than Carpenter?
Pick: Coastal -10.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-18, 62.5) at Rice Owls, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: At first glance, Rice's offense has shown signs of life lately. After averaging just 9.6 points in their first five games against FBS opponents, they've averaged 26 in the last three. But they've averaged only 5.2 yards per play in these three games, and they're still inconsistent -- lots of punts to go with decent drives.
Any punt means doom against WKU. Quarterback Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers have scored at least 31 points in every game and have averaged 43.2 PPG against C-USA foes. Last week, MTSU did a great job of limiting big plays and forcing Zappe to dink and dunk, and WKU still scored on eight of their first 12 full possessions (with two more ending on downs in MTSU territory) and won, 48-21. Rice could slow things down and stay close for a while, but SP+ projects a 21.9-point edge for WKU, a decent cushion with the 18-point line.
Pick: WKU -18
No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 62), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
A daily sports betting news and information show (6-7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that aims to better serve the millions of sports fans who participate in sports wagering and help educate general sports fans with in-depth analysis.
Connelly: Ohio State has underachieved its SP+ projections over the last two weeks (nine-point wins over Penn State and Nebraska) primarily because of an offense that was fine but not amazing. The Buckeyes have yet to truly torch a good defense, and Purdue ranks a solid 28th in defensive SP+.
SP+ projects the Buckeyes with a 24.4-point advantage, but if the last two weeks are a trend, maybe that's not enough to pick Ohio State. I'm doing it anyway, however, because of the Buckeyes' skill corps. Purdue's biggest strength is a secondary that challenges receivers and wins lots of battles. But Michigan State's Payton Thorne went 20-for-30 for 276 yards last week despite missing receiver Jalen Nailor, and OSU's C.J. Stroud should have his full trio of go-to receivers (Garrett Wilson missed the last game but is back in practice this week). With Wilson, Chris Olave and the quickly rising Jaxon Smith-Njigba all lined up wide, OSU will have too many weapons. Purdue will have to engage in a track meet, and the Ohio State defense has been fantastic for the last six games. This one could get away from the Boilermakers.
Pick: Ohio State -20
South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers (-1, 55), 4 p.m. ET
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Mizzou football. The Tigers covered for the first time this season (1-8 ATS) in their 37-point loss to Georgia in Athens on Saturday. I won't discourage you from backing the Gamecocks, but I think this line is a little inflated due to their 40-17 beatdown of Florida last week. If I had a couple more points in my pocket with the Gamecocks, I'd be all over it. Instead, I'll pivot to the over in this matchup between two mediocre teams. The Gamecocks just ran for 284 yards against Florida, and Mizzou's swiss cheese defense is allowing 36.8 PPG this season and 271.0 rushing YPG.
Pick: Over 55
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3, 56) at Tulane Green Wave, 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Hale: Tulane is the best 1-8 team in America. It's simple really; a five-point loss at Oklahoma, a seven-point loss to UAB, a closer than expected game against Cincinnati, another close loss at UCF last week -- the Green Wave are competitive, they just haven't gotten over the top. Well, this is the week that changes. Tulsa has had some of the same close game struggles as Tulane, but the Green Wave are also coming off what amounts to their Super Bowl against the Bearcats, a loss that came in an exceedingly frustrating way. The potential for an emotional letdown on the road against a team the Golden Hurricanes clearly think they should beat seems high. Tulsa is 1-5 against the spread as a favorite this year. Tulane is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2017. Tulsa's offense is terrible. Tulane is due for some good luck. And FPI has Tulsa as a short favorite.
Pick: Tulane +3
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-3, 57) at UNLV Rebels, 4 p.m. ET
Co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, Bet is available for live and on-demand viewing on the ESPN App and on ESPN's social media feeds on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Watch
Hale: Wait, did we say Tulane was the best 1-8 team in America? Upon further review, UNLV is the best 1-8 team in America. But they're both really terrific 1-8 teams. The Rebels are coming off their first win and have had a lead in the second half five times this season (they are just 1-4 in those games). The point is, UNLV is making progress under second-year coach Marcus Arroyo. Hawai'i, meanwhile, rarely embraces its role as favorite. The Rainbow Warriors are just 5-22-1 against the spread as a favorite since 2015. The road mark is even worse. Hawai'i has lost seven of its last nine road games and is just 1-4 ATS away from home in 2021. Plus, a 4 p.m. Eastern kickoff is essentially the same as asking Hawai'i to kick off at 9 a.m. on a Tuesday.
Pick: UNLV +3
No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 55.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: It might be easy to look at Texas A&M's recent scoring totals -- 41 vs. Alabama, 35 vs. Missouri, 44 against South Carolina -- and assume Jimbo Fisher has worked out the kinks in the Aggies' offense. Perhaps. But in that 41-point outburst against the Tide, A&M finished with 379 total yards. It wasn't all that much better against Missouri (431) or the Gamecocks (477), and last week produced another mediocre performance against Auburn (409 yards, 20 points). The 477 yards against the Gamecocks represents a season high for A&M vs. a Power 5 opponent, while Ole Miss has finished with fewer than 464 just once (291 against Alabama). Of the Aggies' 15 touchdowns scored from the Alabama game through Auburn, three came via special teams or defense, and three more came after A&M got the ball in its opponent's territory.
Ole Miss has a massive advantage at QB, and while the Rebels' offense has felt a bit off the past few games, they've also held three of their last four opponents to 26 points or fewer. A&M needs big plays to score and has thrown for more than 200 yards just once against a Power 5 opponent. That's a good matchup for the Ole Miss D. Oddly, this is also just the second true road game of the season for A&M (which played Colorado in Denver and Arkansas in Dallas); the first was against lowly Missouri. FPI says the Rebels should be favored by 1.5, so we're happy to take the points here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (-5.5, 44) at Washington Huskies, 7 p.m. ET
Connelly: Arizona State overcame three turnovers to handle USC comfortably last week. The Sun Devils outgained the Trojans by 2.6 yards per play and probably should have won by a lot more than 15. Now they face a UW team that has plenty of reasons to just about pack it in. Head coach Jimmy Lake has been suspended for a game, and offensive coordinator John Donovan, who probably should have never been hired, was fired on Sunday as well. The Huskies need to win two of three to reach bowl eligibility, and they do have "we've got nothing to lose" potential, but barring turnovers and/or a miraculous offensive performance (from a team that hasn't topped 24 points since September), ASU's advantage should be greater than 5.5 points.
Pick: Arizona State -5.5
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5, 64) at Virginia Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: The state slogan may be "Virginia is for lovers," but this Saturday night in Charlottesville I'm switching that to "Virginia is for overs." After all, the Cavaliers fit the bill, ranking 11th in scoring and 102nd in scoring defense. Virginia has been involved in some exhilarating shootouts this season, with 115 total points being scored in the BYU game, 98 points produced in the North Carolina showdown, 88 points totaled in the Georgia Tech matchup and 67 points accumulated in the Louisville contest. I'm sure Brian Kelly and Notre Dame will be happy to oblige with an offense that has scored a healthy average of 35 points per game since being held to just 13 points against Cincinnati back on Oct. 2.
Pick: Over 64
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns (-30.5, 61.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Kansas football. Outside of its strangely competitive game against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Kansas has been consistently getting waxed by the competition. The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS this season and have a -249 point differential this season. Steve Sarkisian & Co. should run it up at will Saturday night in Austin.
Pick: Texas -30.5
Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-16.5, 57), 9 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Colorado has found an offense, scoring a combined 66 points in its last two games. It actually makes sense. Most teams evolve throughout the season, and that is particularly applicable with a freshman quarterback. Additionally, the Buffs are surrendering tons of points and thus find themselves facing relaxed defenses or even reserves in garbage time. Enter UCLA, which ranks in the bottom half of the country in various defensive statistics. The Bruins have lost back-to-back games but also have USC on deck, so I can envision an apathetic effort. All in all, I think we see enough points to cash the over.
Pick: Over 57
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (-2, 45.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: San Diego State at any price cheaper than -3 is worth a play because Nevada should have lost to San Jose State last week. The Wolf Pack closed as a 12.5-point favorite and won by just three points despite being outgained by 82 total yards. Had Nevada lost that game like it should have, this price would be Aztecs -3.5 or greater, in my opinion. Styles make fights, and in this fight SDSU has a big edge in two key departments. First, the Aztecs love to run the ball, which will be problematic in the trenches for a Nevada program that ranks 79th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt (5.4). Second, Nevada's strength is its passing attack (third in the NCAA), which should be limited by an Aztecs defense that ranks fourth in the nation in opponent yards per passing attempt (5.4). Throw in SDSU's significant edge on special teams and I'm happy to lay two points in this spot.
Pick: San Diego State -2
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