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Sunday 12/11/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, December 11
Posted on December 10, 2022 by David Aragona
RACE 3: CHARGER (#2)
Win for Gold (#1) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back down in class for the hot Linda Rice barn. He won at this claiming price two back beating N2L foes before stepping up into a starter allowance last time. He didn’t run badly to finish a close fifth, but lacked some late punch through the stretch. My major concern with this horse is that he’s broken slowly in each of his last two starts. It didn’t affect him as much against weaker company, but it may have hindered him last time breaking from the inside, and he’s drawn the rail again. Jake Rocks (#4) is the other horse who could take money here, and he does have a right to improve first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. However, I thought we saw the best he had to offer going a mile in the slop two back, when he benefited from a pace that held together. I didn’t love his last race, and he’s never had a great affinity for winning races. I prefer the other Rudy Rodriguez trainee Charger (#2). This horse appears to have regressed in two starts since getting claimed by this barn, but I don’t think either performance is as bad as it seems. A mile was too far for him two back, and then last time he didn’t get the best ride at Parx, driven down to the rail in the stretch when that may not have been the best part of the racetrack. I think he has the opportunity to get more forward position this time with the rider switch to 10-pound apprentice Madison Olver, who has been showing improved form this week.
RACE 7: FAMISHED (#7)
This 9-furlong starter allowance event is one of the more interesting races on the card. Two of the main players, Outlier (#1) and No Salt (#9), faced off in a similar spot at this level back on Nov. 12. No Salt got the better of his rival that day, but Outlier arguably should have been elevated to victory by the stewards after sustaining a bump from No Salt in mid-stretch. They’re both contenders, but they each have a different set of questions to answer. Outlier has competed twice more since then, most recently 8 days ago in the Cigar Mile, where he didn’t actually run that badly. No Salt, on the other hand, comes in fresher, but has to prove that he can still run effective for Mike Miceli, who hadn’t had him for very long prior to the last race and has been in an uncharacteristic slump for the past half year or so. This horse also didn’t draw a great post position. Neither did No Burn (#10), who is another wild card in this field. His post position could be especially detrimental since he’s a runner with early speed. He also comes off an uncharacteristically poor performance and may finally be going off form. I’m interested in some runners who should be bigger prices. Locally Owned (#3)makes sense as he stretches back out to two turns. He didn’t run well going a mile last time behind today’s rivals, but he’s much better over slightly longer trips. The Tom Morley barn seems to be emerging from its fall slump, and this horse has had success for the stable in the past. My top pick is Famished (#7). He’s another who comes in off a poor effort, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for failing to show up in that one-mile event at Laurel. That was a strange race in which multiple horses seemed to underperform, yet a few have already come back to improve in subsequent starts. His prior form was solid, as he held his own against some good rivals two back, and ran well going two turns at Monmouth in June. He also ran a competitive speed figure going this distance last March. I think Horacio De Paz has found a good spot for him to return to NYRA, and Kendrick Carmouche has been riding well.
RACE 8: SAFALOW’S MISSION (#2)
This is a difficult race to decipher, primarily due to the presence of a few intriguing Finger Lakes shippers who could take money. The most intriguing of those is Warriors Revenge (#6), who is seeking to take his 2022 record to 8 for 8 after having a magical run of success at Finger Lakes this season. However, he is stepping up significantly in class and should find some company on the front end as he looks to show speed. Perhaps the most dangerous of the Finger Lakes shippers is The Institute (#4), since he’s switching into the barn of Linda Rice, who has been having a ton of success at Aqueduct in recent weeks. He’s another who has met weaker out of town, but he’s been a dominant winner of his last couple of races. He’s a well-bred horse who may have just finally turned the corner. Yet I instead want to focus on some runners who have positive experience on this circuit. I think the horse to beat is recent maiden winner Today’s Flavor (#5), who comes off a commanding victory last month. He wasn’t beating the strongest field of maidens, but he sprinted home nicely after getting away with slow early splits. The main concern with him is the likely pace, since he figures to get pushed through faster early fractions this time. I think there’s a chance this races apart, which makes he want to consider two contenders. On the Hill (#3) merits a look as he attempts to rebound second off the layoff. I can easily forgive his last effort, as he was badly shut off at the start after breaking slowly. I’m still not sure if he can get back to his improved form from the summer, and the addition of blinkers suggests that they may not be looking to come from off the pace again. Therefore, my top pick is Safalow’s Mission (#2). He’s the less accomplished Linda Rice entrant in here, but I actually prefer him at a bigger price. I thought he finished strongly to break his maiden last May in a race that has proven to be a lot stronger than the speed figures indicate. Then he had little chance when he tried this condition in June, as that race was dominated up front and he raced out of position after getting shuffled back early. He figures to get pace to close into in this return from the layoff, and I don’t think this race is quite as tough as it might appear at first glance. Dismiss anything from the Linda Rice barn at your own risk right now.
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Grand Prix Stakes Sunday: Seoul & Busan Race-By-Race Preview (December 11)
It’s Grand Prix Stakes Sunday with the traditional season finale bringing together sixteen of the country’s best horses at Seoul for the 2300M Group 1 test. See here for a full runner-by-runner guide. The Grand Prix is race 8 on the 11-race program at Seoul which runs from 10:45 to 18:00. There is also a 6-race card at Busan from 12:15 to 16:45. The Grand Prix is at 16:15. Here are all the previews:
Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million
Juvenile filly maidens in the opener with three of the small field of eight racing for the first time. (8) RAON CITY GIRL has race twice and was an improved 3rd in the second of them over this distance on November 6th when handy throughout and finishing in a fast time. The small field means she should be able to get on pace again and she is the one to beat. The biggest danger looks to be one of the first timers. (1) EINSPANNER was an on-pace 2nd in her trial in a fair time and from a great draw can put in a bold showing first up. (2) BLUE ARCH has raced twice at this distance and just like Raon City Girl, she improved in the second of them, settling handy and running on for 4th. With some more improvement she can be in the mix here. (3) GEOMIBULU is a debut-maker who must be taken seriously having won her trial in November when settling midfield and running on. (7) GROW can improve on her midfield finish on debut.
Selections (8) Raon City Girl (1) Einspanner (2) Blue Arch (3) Geomibulu
Next Best 7, 6
Fast Start 1, 2, 4, 8
Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million
More juvenile filly maidens this time with four of the eight making their racing debuts. (7) ICE CREAM will be the hot favourite. She led for much of her debut at this distance on October 16th, ultimately finishing back in 4th but with close margins and a quick time. She should have derived benefit from the experience and if she runs to that level again, she should win. (1) NANGJU YEOGEOL has raced twice already, finishing 5th both times and stopping the clock in exactly the same time. A similar run will put her into the places here. Among the first-time starters, (2) BULGOM MADRE looks to be the pick. She came from off the pace to win her trial in a fair time and if she brings that form to the races, she can go close in this company. (4) GREEN SPECTER led for most of her trial, crossing the line 2nd. She draws well to be on pace and can be in this a long way on debut. (3) GOOD SIMON perhaps needs trying at further but can aim for minor money.
Selections (7) Ice Cream (1) Nangju Yeogeol (2) Bulgom Madre (4) Green Specter
Next Best 3, 8
Fast Start 1, 4, 7, 8
Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million
Juvenile maidens again, this time open to colts as well as fillies. Four of the eight race for the first time. (8) GEOSEN CHAMP is the favourite. He ran an improved 4th at start number two over this distance on November 5th, beginning slowly and then settling right back before finishing strongly, well beaten by winner Farciarz but posting a more than respectable time. With some natural improvement, he may take some beating. (6) RICH GATE ran pleasingly enough for a midfield finish in a good time on debut on October 30th. He can have benefited for the run and can be in the mix here. (3) HALLSTATT and (4) SEUNGRIUI YEONGHON both put in fair efforts on their respective debuts and can build on them here with the latter likely to be on the early pace. The first-time staters didn’t exactly leap out of the trial highlights reels. (7) CHRYSOL SMILE is the first foal by 2016 Korea Cup winner Chrysolite to make the track.
Selections (8) Geosen Champ (6) Rich Gate (3) Hallstatt (4) Seungriui Yeonghon
Next Best 7, 2
Fast Start 2, 4, 6
Busan Race 1: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million
Juvenile maidens get things underway on the south coast with two of the ten racing for the first time. (3) HANEUL SEUNGNI races for the third time, having run 3rd and 2nd in two previous outings, both at 1000M and both in good times. He draws nicely to lead here and can go all the way. (6) STAR FURY went through two October trials, improving significantly in the second of them (which as it was a voluntary trial, may not appear in all race cards). In that trial he crossed the line within two-lengths of Touch Star Man and Top Mate, experienced winners (the former a Classic winner) and he can be given a chance here. (1) STORMY DAY beat a couple of these on his way to a very creditable 4th place over this distance on debut on November 13th. He doesn’t have the benefit of an apprentice claim today, but that’s balanced somewhat by a better draw, and he can go close. (7) DALLILLAEYO was 5th in that race on November 13th when settling right back and running on. That was an improvement from his debut, and he can continue to make progress here. (4) REMEMBER ME another who can improve.
Selections (3) Haneul Seungni (6) Star Fury (1) Stormy Day (7) Dallillaeyo
Next Best 4, 5
Fast Start 3, 5, 6, 8
Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million
Juvenile filly maidens. (1) HANGANG JILJU looks ready to win. She improved at start number three when an on the pace 4th over 1000M and coming up in trip for the first time and from a good draw, may take some beating. (7) BAEDARI GONGJU has made steady progress across three outings so far, with her 4th place on what was her first try at this distance on November 13th, her best so far. She has tended to get a bit far back in her races but can run on and challenge here. (8) GANGCHEOL YEOGEOL similarly demonstrated improvement at start number two. She has drawn wide every time so far, but in today’s smaller field, it may not be much of a hindrance. (4) CATS WOMAN and (6) RED TAEPUNG are others with claims on the minors
Selections (1) Hangang Jilju (7) Baedari Gongju (8) Gangcheol Yeogeol (4) Cats Woman
Next Best 6, 2
Fast Start 1, 2, 3, 6
Busan Race 2: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million
Another maiden where it is hard to look past the favourite. (4) PAN STAR has steadily improved across three starts to date, culminating in a runner-up finish over 1200M on November 18th when she came close to making all. The additional half furlong shouldn’t be an issue and she can go one better today. (6) HEARTBREAKER also improved at start number two on November 11th when sitting midfield and getting back well for 3rd over 1200M. He stretches out a little further in trip today and with some natural improvement, he can go close. (5) ADELE HORANGI has four top-five finishes from his five starts to date. His best was a second place in October over this distance when handy to the speed and he can be a danger here. (8) JEONGMUN CHITA and (7) BOOMY STAR the others in the hunt.
Selections (4) Pan Star (6) Heartbreaker (5) Adele Horangi (8) Jeongmun Chita
Next Best 7, 9
Fast Start 2, 3, 4, 6
Seoul Race 5: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million
(4) BADAUI KKUM has made steady progress in recent outings and comes in off his best to date when 2nd over this distance on November 6th when on pace throughout. He carries the same weight, draws similarly, and has the fastest time of any of these at the distance. He can win. There is one debut-maker and it’s a potentially good one. (1) HIDDEN BRAIN absolutely bolted up in a trial in November, crossing the line seventeen-lengths to the good and in a decent time. If he brings that form to the races, there’s no reason why he can’t win first up, and he will probably start as favourite. (8) SSANG OK RU has been on the speed in his latest two, finishing 3rd and 4th. He tackles this distance for the first time and can be in this a long way again. (7) MONEY STONE and (9) CLAIR POWER among others with placing hopes.
Selections (4) Badaui Kkum (1) Hidden Brain (8) Ssang Ok Ru (7) Money Stone
Next Best 9, 2
Fast Start 2, 7, 8, 9
Busan Race 3: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million
It’s about time (3) GOLDEN POINT made the breakthrough and got his maiden win. He has seven top-five finishes from nine attempts without cracking first place but came close at his latest on November 13th when he led from the gate and nearly made all over 1400M. He comes slightly back in trip, draws very well, and has Franco aboard and today should make no mistake. (1) ETERNAL ACE comes up in class following a good win over this distance on November 11th, when he led all the way and stopped the clock in a good time. Under an apprentice claim, he carries very little weight and draws very nicely on the inside. (7) BUILD UP Is another maiden. He has mixed his form, but his 7th place last time out was in a tight race with small margins, and he had shown on the speed. Expect him on pace again and to be a danger. (9) ADELE ALLIE’S comes up in class but down in weight and could be worth an interest at an each-way price. (11) QUALITY QUEEN another in the frame.
Selections (3) Golden Point (1) Eternal Ace (7) Build Up (9) Adele Allie’s
Next Best 11, 5
Fast Start 2, 5, 7, 10
Seoul Race 6: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million
(10) BLOOMING STAR ran out a good winner on debut over 1000M on September 24th when stalking the leader throughout and then proving too strong. He has had a couple of months off since then, comes up in class and distance and draws a touch wider than ideal, but the way he finished off that race, suggests that all those things can be overcome, and he can maintain his 100% record here. (5) GOOD NISEN returns to action for the first time since March. He was putting together an impressive body of work before the layoff with a win at 1200M and a close class and distance runner-up finish in a super time. He looked well enough in a November trial, and he can be a danger first-up. (8) NAMSAN MUJEOK is another up in class, in his case having got his maiden win at the seventh time of asking. It was over this distance, and he sat midfield and ran on. He can measure up in this company. (1) CHANCELLOR and (11) MUNHAK FOREST among others who can enter the placing calculations.
Selections (10) Blooming Star (5) Good Nisen (8) Namsan Mujeok (1) Chancellor
Next Best 11, 3
Fast Start 3, 5, 7, 11
Busan Race 4: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million
Fillies only here. A class and distance winner in September, (2) ILNYEOM CHEONHA has run fairly in to starts since, recording a 5th and a 4th and beating a couple of these along the way. An apprentice jockey claim takes her carried weight back to the mark at which she last won at, and she draws very nicely. She looks to be the one to beat. (12) ILBEONJI comes back to the races for the first time since winning in double quick time over 1200M at this level in July. She is up a full 6kg on that summer run, but she blitzed a November trial and so long as she didn’t leave her race in that heat, she can go close. (8) D’LOVELY QUEEN is also up significantly in weight on her class and distance win on November 11th when on pace throughout. The time she recorded that day was faster than anything else in this race has achieved at this distance and she will be a danger. Up in class but down in weight, (4) BLUE CARSON can be competitive, while (6) ART KELLY is another capable of the money.
Selections (2) Ilnyeom Cheonha (12) Ilbeonji (8) D’Lovely Queen (4) Blue Carson
Next Best 6, 7
Fast Start 1, 2, 3, 4
Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1600M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million
Fillies and mares here. (1) GREEN SPARK comes up in class having secured her second win on her fourth career start over 1300M on November 6th. An on-pace type so far, she comes up to the mile for the first time, but the draw is great, and she comes down a full 3kg in the weights. She’s a big chance. (7) HAPPY SOCKS was a good winner over 1300M at class 5 level in October before running 2nd on her first try at this class and distance on November 12th. The experience of the mile with its unique characteristics can stand her in good stead and she can go close. (4) SINHAN TEUKSEONG also has prior experience of the distance, having run 5th behind Happy Socks in that November 12th race. From a good gate, she is a potential leader here and shouldn’t be ruled out. (2) BEST MAD CAM and (8) DREAM K are others to consider.
Selections (1) Green Spark (7) Happy Socks (4) Sinhan Teukseong (2) Best Mad Cam
Next Best 8, 5
Fast Start 1, 4, 6, 7
Busan Race 5: Class 4 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million
(6) HERO MAN will be the warm favourite here. He won over this distance at class 5 level in September, making all, and come sin off a 4th place at class and distance on November 11th when beating a couple of today’s rivals and while he doesn’t have the benefit of an apprentice claim, that’s countered by Franco climbing aboard. Big chance. (7) WONDERFUL WORLD won at class and distance back in August at big odds and has followed up with three consecutive 3rd place finishes. He too is up a little in the weights, but this looks a nice spot for him, and he can go close. (8) YONGGARI tackles the two turns for the first time. He was a useful 4th over 1400M on his latest effort and his running style may suit. (2) BOUNTY HUNTER and (3) GEUMA NIPPY among other potential placers.
Selections (6) Hero Man (7) Wonderful World (8) Yonggari (2) Bounty Hunter
Next Best 3, 4
Fast Start 2, 5, 6, 8
Seoul Race 8: Class Open (2300M) Grand Prix Stakes (KOR G1) Weight for Age / KRW 900 Million
The Grand Prix Stakes traditionally decides the year’s champion racehorse. (2) RAON THE FIGHTER is the most exciting galloper in Korea right now with twelve wins and three 2nd places in fifteen career starts. He was runner-up to Winner’s Man in the Korea Cup and subsequently won the KRA Cup Classic (2000M KOR-G2) when he used his natural speed to easily cross to the lead from a wide draw and then exploded into the straight before being eased in the closing stages. That was his first try at 2000M and there’s no reason 2300M should be a problem. (14) WINNER’S MAN won the International Korea Cup and is the best stayer in the nation but came up short in the President’s Cup when 3rd. He was with the leaders until the 50M point though and battled on gamely. Last year’s Derby winner has been successful in four Graded races already this year including that sensational Korea Cup when he stormed through late to pass Japan’s Sekifu as well as Raon The Fighter. He is an attritional rather than spectacular type and will grind his way through the extended trip. He is tactically versatile and is a big chance (6) RAON FIRST is the best mare in the country and the only one entered in this race, she beat the boys, including Winner’s Man, in the President’s Cup (2000M KOR-G1). She knuckled the start then gathered momentum to race handy to the lead. She had to be restrained on the home turn as she wanted to faster and once unleashed in the straight proved too good. It was an amazing run following her 3rd place in the Korea Sprint at 1200M in September. She makes another step up in trip here, but she can’t be ruled out. Choi Bum-hyun, who won the race on Dongbanui Gangja in 2008 and 2009, will be aboard seeking his 3rd Grand Prix. (4) KING OF THE MATCH could be an option at longer odds. A consistent performer, if non-winner, in elite races this year with standouts being 4th in the Korea Cup and 2nd in the KRA Cup Classic, this race has always clearly been the target. In the Classic, he raced further forward than usual, settling handy, and he benefited. At the furlong pole, while not making ground on Raon The Fighter, he was running away from the rest the extended trip should suit and settling handy again, he has a chance. Defending champion (15) HAENGBOK WANGJA is best of the rest while for a long shot at a place, (5) TUHONUI BANSEOK may be the place to turn.
Selections (2) Raon The Fighter (14) Winner’s Man (6) Raon First (4) King Of The Match
Next Best 15, 5
Fast Start 2, 6, 12, 14
Busan Race 6: Class 1 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 110 Million
Back down to 1200M and (3) SSONSAL becomes the one to beat here. He won on his latest start over this trip back in May and as been solid in three subsequent outings over 1400M. He draws well, and his quality can see him through. (4) DAEMANGUI GIL come sin off a victory over 1400M in September and then an excellent 3rd place behind Eoma Eoma in the Kookje Shinmun Trophy over the same distance on October 30th. The booking of an apprentice means he carries significantly less than he is accustomed to and while the seven-furlongs may be more his go, he has run fast times at this distance too. (11) BUSANHANG GALMAEGI had a tough time over 1400M last time out on November 13th but just like Ssonsal, is another who should be more comfortable back at the shorter journey today., even though he needs to navigate the wide draw. (9) YES PERFECT and (10) PRO CONSUL among others in the placing frame.
Selections (3) Ssonsal (4) Daemangui Gil (11) Busanhang Galmaegi (9) Yes Perfect
Next Best 10, 5
Fast Start 1, 5, 11, 12
Seoul Race 9: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million
Competitive race. (5) CHAMPION GAMUN could be ready for another win here. He comes in off a solid 2nd place, albeit it well-back behind a very good winner, over class and distance on October 23rd and while he comes up 2kg for his efforts, he remains well drawn and has every chance. (10) RAON THE HIGHMAN ran 2nd in his first two outings to be promoted winless to this level. He has measured up fairly enough with a 4th and a 6th in two outings at class 5, tiring a little over 1300M last time. He comes down in the weights today and while he may need a touch of luck at the start from the wide draw, he can be going close. (4) GO GO STAR has a habit of coming 3rd, something she did two starts back when beating Champion Gamun. She has run consistent times at this distance though and Moon Se-young hopping on will tempt plenty. (1) HANGANG HERO and (2) COMPLETE LUCKY other potentials.
Selections (5) Champion Gamun (10) Raon The Highman (4) Go Go Star (1) Hangang Hero
Next Best 2, 8
Fast Start 1, 5, 8, 10
Seoul Race 10: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million
He might have finished last in the Korean Derby in May, but (4) DAEMUL is a winner of three from eight and two of his latest three. He comes up in class after a very smart win over 1200M on October 29th, when he settled midfield and ran on and under a light weight and from a good gate, he’s the one they need to beat. (6) FOX POWER perhaps has the best chance of beating the favourite. He has also won two of his latest three including a last start score over a mile in a fast time at this class. He comes up a full 4.5kg in the weights but should remain competitive. (2) GYORYONGDEUKSU is rarely too far away and from a good gate can settle on pace or handy and run on. (8) SECRET BOSS and (1) TOUGH MAN are others who can enter the calculations.
Selections (4) Daemul (6) Fox Power (2) Gyoryongdeuksu (8) Secret Boss
Next Best 1, 5
Fast Start 1, 2, 3, 4
Seoul Race 11: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million
After running 2nd on debut, (4) WORLD CHARM has since reeled off four consecutive wins, making all on each occasion with his latest coming over this distance on October 22nd. He is up in class here, but comes down in the weights, draws very well and really, he looks destined for a higher level than this. He will be a prohibitive favourite, and for good reason. (6) WILD SOCKS won three in a row in June and July before running a good 4th in the Macau Jockey Club Trophy on September 3rd. He hasn’t raced since but looked well in an October trial and is down 3kg in the weights here. He has placing chances. So too (1) POWER BOX, who has been posting consistently fast times at this trip. He draws good gate today and carries a light weight. (9) SARYEONI QUEEN and (7) TAKTUEIN others who can go close.
Selections (4) World Charm (6) Wild Socks (1) Power Box (9) Saryeoni Queen
Next Best 7, 3
Fast Start 1, 2, 4, 6
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Rocket Picks ��: Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park for December 11, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman
Let’s get another Sunday started off for the Rockets! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!
Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:
Gulfstream Park December 11, 2022
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
#2 Alpha Bella will give the turf a try today after three decent efforts over the dirt at this level. Her breeding suggests she might take very well to the turf. #10 Solicitation is set to debut here for Clement, who usually has these first timers ready to roll on the turf. He is having a solid meet so far at Gulfstream Park.
Race 8: Starter Optional Claiming
freestar
#5 Shes All Woman had won four straight starts before a poor effort last time out. Look for her to bounce back from that effort in a big way today. #2 Battle Cry looks for three in a row in this spot after back to back solid wins at Delaware Park against similar runners.
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming
#5 Gangly makes her second start under Walder in this spot, which usually leads to an improved race. Some of her previous races are good enough to get the job done here. #4 Assertiko faces state bred horses today after running against open company in his last several starts.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight
#9 Erna was a neck away from victory on debut in her last start and seems to be the one to beat in this spot today a for a solid trainer. #5 On the Payroll struggled on debut last time out at Aqueduct but should move forward off of that race for Pletcher.
THE TICKET
$.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 2,3,5,10 / 2,5 / 2,4,5,8 / 5,9 – $32
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Aqueduct Hotlist - December 11
December 10, 2022
Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Sunday, December 11, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race [Md 20000, 6F] – (5) Cookie Crumbs will move back to the main track, make a significant drop down in class, and cut back to sprinting for Todd Pletcher. (2) Bank Buster is projected to be loose on the lead as she goes at the lowest level of her career. (7) Bella Michelle moves down also with previous efforts that make her a contender in this group. (1) In Good Trouble moves to the $20,000 level for the first time.
5th race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 6
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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 11
December 10, 2022
Today’s Gulfstream Park Hot List races to watch
Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (6) Funding Gap takes a big class drop and gets the nod in this field. (5) Wheatsheaf might show some speed while moving to turf. (2) Mr. Cellular ran well after a layoff and could be tougher here. (11) Greg’s Honor drops to a level where he should be effective. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-11.
3rd race – (2) Pretty Persuasive was pulled up in his debut on dirt but should more competitive here. (7) Queen of Mine is long overdue for a maiden win. (4) Karen’s Revenge was an improved third last time and is worth a look. (8) Oaxaca loses her blinkers and could work out a good trip from the outside. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-7-8.
7th race – (9) Worst Behaviour was second last time and can win this if she’s on her best behavior. (10) Solicitation could be a contender in her debut. (2) Alpha Bella is bred to enjoy turf. (1) Accidental Icon may welcome the dirt-to-turf switch. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-9-10.
9th race – (8) Avant Glory should rebound with an improved effort while returning to the main track. (5) Gangly was a good second last time and should be a factor once again. (3) Prince of Iron has never been worse than third and belongs in the exotics. (1) Tiger could roar from the rail. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-8. Doubles: 1-3-5-8 with 1-3-5-8.
10th race – (5) On the Payroll tired late in her debut and should take a step forward based on a bullet work for this. (8) Penumbras Maker has the kind of speed to be a force here. (1) Mrs. Astor rallied wide and then faded in her debut at Keeneland. Drawing the rail will be an asset here. (3) More Than a Diva could turn in a breakout effort here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-8
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Declan Schuster's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Sunday, December 11, 2022
SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Sunday, December 11, 2022)
Race 1: #10 Perfetto, #2 Wide Blue Yonder, #1 Circuit Mighty, #12 Adefill
Race 2: #8 Nicetobemet, #2 Mighty Stride, #1 The Hulk, #12 Turbo Power
Race 3: #6 Ready To Win, #4 Victor The Winner, #14 Dragon’s Luck, #2 Maldives
Race 4: #10 Stone Age, #3 Glory Vase, #9 Win Marilyn, #6 Senor Toba
Race 5: #13 Meikei Yell, #4 Lucky Sweynesse, #11 Courier Wonder, #14 Resistencia
Race 6: #3 Sweet Encounter, #11 Round The Earth, #4 Woodfire Bro, #2 S J Tourbillon
Race 7: #1 Golden Sixty, #2 California Spangle, #4 Schnell Meister, #3 Salios
Race 8: #12 Lei Papale, #2 Romantic Warrior, #3 Jack d’Or, #1 Panthalassa
Race 9: #6 Voyage Bubble #10 Golden Express, #4 Atullibigeal, #14 Tamra Blitz
Race 10: #3 Blaze Warrior, #12 King Land, #4 The Irishman, #2 Lucky With You
:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, analysis, replays, and live streaming
Race 1: Beauty Generation Handicap
#10 Perfetto looks to have ability. He’s done well in the lead-up to his return and this race looks like a suitable starting point for him first-up this term. #2 Wide Blue Yonder draws awkwardly but is in the right vein of form. He can mix his form but on his day he’s more than up to winning this one. #1 Circuit Mighty won well last start. He’s racing well and appears capable of taking another step forward. #12 Adefill draws ideally and has more ability than his record suggests. Next best.
Race 2: Falvelon Handicap
#8 Nicetobemet looks like an exciting prospect. He makes his debut here and he has caught the eye of Zac Purton as he chases a first-up win. #2 Mighty Stride is after back-to-back wins. He won well on debut and also shapes as an exciting prospect. #1 The Hulk gets the services of Joao Moreira. Expect him to be charging late, even though he steps away from a wide draw. #12 Turbo Power is consistent and has claims. He draws ideally and does pair favourably with Vincent Ho.
Race 3: Lord Kanaloa Handicap
#6 Ready To Win closed off nicely last start, enough so to suggest that a win was very close. He’s in the right vein of form and the inside draw is very, very favourable here as a number of key chances in this have wide barriers. #4 Victor The Winner returned to winning ways in style last start. Expect he tries to cross from the draw – while this will be tough – and get every chance close to the speed. #14 Dragon’s Luck has also been handed a tricky gate. #2 Maldives has claims.
Race 4: G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Vase
#10 Stone Age comes into this race following a strong second-placed effort at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Still only a three-year-old, this is the right form and with even luck he should get every chance to win, especially form gate one under Ryan Moore. #3 Glory Vase thrives in Hong Kong as he chases an unprecedented third LONGINES Hong Kong Vase. He will be in the finish. #9 Win Marilyn brings the right form from Japan. Keep safe. #6 Senor Toba can close off for the home team.
Race 5: G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint
#13 Meikei Yell is a lightly raced filly with a stack of class. She’s incredibly slick on her day and pairing with James McDonald this weekend will ensure her of every chance, especially as she steps away from the wide draw. #4 Lucky Sweynesse is shaping as the best from the home team. He was superb last start at Group 2 level and he can take another step forward here. #11 Courier Wonder is better than his form suggests. Take an each way ticket at huge odds on him. #14 Resistencia is next best. She’ll be running on.
Race 6: Jim And Tonic Handicap
#3 Sweet Encounter is a three-time winner from four starts. He’s racing in sublime form and this field doesn’t look capable of getting in his way. He was arrogant when winning last start and a similar performance is expected here. #11 Round The Earth is progressing well. Expect he can take another step forward this weekend. #4 Woodfire Bro got up in trip and won well last start. He can figure once more. #2 S J Tourbillon mixes his form but is a threat over this distance.
Race 7: G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Mile
There’s little to split the top two in the handicap. Siding with #1 Golden Sixty narrowly. He was impressive first-up and with added improvement he shapes as the one to beat. Still, #2 California Spangle should hold second favouritism and will be the value in the race, especially as he makes his own luck out in front. Take a ticket on him to lead and try to kick on with this one for trainer Tony Cruz who has a strong record here. #4 Schnell Meister has the class to contend. He has claims. #3 Salios is next best.
Race 8: G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup
#12 Lei Papale’s sole run in Hong Kong saw her finish a luckless sixth in this race last year. She can atone for that effort – while it will be an incredible challenge – with gate one and Joao Moreira engaged. Chances are she’s over the odds. #2 Romantic Warrior is the local circuit’s star. He’s still not done with his rise yet and his first-up win was nothing short of impressive. #3 Jack d’Or is classy and is expected to figure prominently, especially from a positive gate. #1 Panthalassa will make the running. Big watch.
Race 9: Maurice Handicap
#6 Voyage Bubble is a very straightforward horse. He gets the draw, he gets Joao Moreira and with that first-up run under his belt, he can win. #10 Golden Express has the class and will continue to improve in Hong Kong. Expect he takes another step forward here. #4 Atullibigeal is improving and he should be a bit of value. Take an each way ticket on him to steamroll this group from the tail of the field. #14 Tamra Blitz has shown consistency and has claims at the bottom of the handicap.
Race 10: Highland Reel Handicap
#3 Blaze Warrior narrowly missed in a strong race last start. Expect he can bring that form here and prove far too good, especially with Ryan Moore engaged this time. #12 King Land is performing well as a winner two runs back. He slots in light and gets his opportunity. #4 The Irishman draws well and gets his chance. Blake Shinn knows the horse and it’s expected that he does his best work late. #2 Lucky With You is a classy type. He’s in the right vein of form to contend again.
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Hong Kong tips: Sha Tin betting strategy and selections, Sunday December 11
Format/Legend:
x = confidence level. eg “x” = confident, “xx” = extra confident.
Selections: “5x – (3/14) – 1 – 6” means 5 is a clear top pick (the “x” denoting extra confidence), numbers 3 and 14 are equal second picks, from 1 and then 6.
Race 1 - BEAUTY GENERATION HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1400M, Good
Prize Money: $1,080,000, Rating: 60-40, Class 4
There are three main chances here, but there is also some depth to the field. #1 Circuit Mighty is our top pick but is small at 1019 pounds and carries the top weight of 135lbs. Our next best, #2 Wide Blue Yonder and #3 Horsesain Bolt, are drawn in the two outside barriers and both look poorly placed on the TechTeam speed map. We see four other hopes, starting with #4 Red Titan.
Barrier one will help #9 Perfect Peach. We have included #11 Happy Land based on his impressive barrier trials, particularly one at Conghua on August 18, where he ran home in 10.68s, 10.74s (21.42s) under a hold.
Finally, #12 Adefill from its low draw is a place chance but word of warning: he has not lived up to his promising trackwork in his race day performances.
Selections: 1 – 3 – 2 – 9 – 11 – 12
Against: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 14
Race 2 - FALVELON HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1200M, Good
Prize Money: $1,080,000, Rating: 60-40, Class 4
There is a lack of speed in this race which will favour #2 Mighty Stride who could get an easy lead and #13 Marvel Dragon, another on-pacer. How will the strong closers #1 The Hulk and #3 Regency Bo Bo fare? The main play is #8 Nicetobemet who won a barrier trial in Australia very easily, beating two subsequent winners and ran on very nicely under a hold in his winning trial at Happy Valley.
Selections: 8X – 2 – 3 – 1 – 13
Against: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14
Race 3 - LORD KANALOA HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1200M, Good
Prize Money: $1,725,000, Rating: 80-60, Class 3
There are very few chances here and #4 Victor The Winner looks the winner ridden by the maestro James McDonald. He should lead and #14 Dragon’s Luck, an impressive winner on debut, is the main danger. The very consistent #9 Science Patch meets ‘Victor’ nine pounds better for his third to him but we doubt that he can make up the margin deficit anyway. #5 Lord Thunder is second up after a year long spell so even though he had an excuse last start he may struggle here.
Selections: 4XX – 14X – 9 –5
Against: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 13
Race 4 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE
Turf, “A” Course, 2400M, Good
Prize Money: $22,000,000, Group One
There is a big push for #9 Win Marilyn here but there is nothing between her and #10 Stone Age and #3 Glory Vase.
Andre Fabre’s stayer #5 Botanik stands out on the next line but it is even from there. #2 Bubble Gift, #4 Mendocino and #6 Senor Toba are too hard to split.
Selections: (9X/10/3) – 5 – (2/4/6)
Race 5 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT
Turf, “A” Course, 1200M, Good
Prize Money: $24,000,000, Group One
The two local contenders at the top of the market stand out here. We give the edge to #4 Lucky Sweynesse over #1 Wellington. One to watch at odds though is the Japanese mare #14 Resitencia, who was second in last year’s interference ridden race, but who has drawn barrier one with Joao Moreira aboard.
From there it is a wide open race in which luck in running could again play a big part.
Selections: 4 – 1 – 14X – (3/6/12/13)
Race 6 - JIM AND TONIC HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1800M, Good
Prize Money: $1,900,000, Rating: 80-55, Class 3
The first question to ask here is will #3 Sweet Encounter (if he jumps well) hand up the lead to #1 Champion Dragon who has led in four of his last five runs. Sweet Encounter has much more early speed (13.28s first 200m) than Champion Dragon (14.23s) and Zac Purton ensures he will be perfectly ridden. #4 Woodfire Bro, like Sweet Encounter, is ultra consistent and a clear second pick, dropping back in distance from the 2000m. #14 Billionaire Secret deserves a mention off his good trial and #13 Blastoise is well graded at the bottom of Class 3.
Selections: 3XX – 4X – 1 – 14 – 13
Against: 12
Race 7 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG MILE
Turf, “A” Course, 1600M, Good
Prize Money: $30,000,000, Group One
How will #2 California Spangle turn the tables on #1 Golden Sixty? In our opinion he won’t.
Golden Sixty conceded five pounds to his younger rival last start, was first-up and ran California Spangle down despite a near-perfect front running ride from Zac Purton.
The Japanese milers are strong and the two here are a clear third and fourth: #4 Schnell Meister and #10 Danon Scorpion.
Selections – 1XX – 2 – 4 – 10
Race 8 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP
Turf, “A” Course, 2000M, Good
Prize Money: $34,000,000, Group One
We have #2 Romantic Warrior on top but he will be favourite. #3 Jack D’Or could represent some value and #1 Panthalassa will obviously be right in the race.
#5 Russian Emperor and #12 Lei Papale are place chances.
Selections: 2 – 3X – 1 – (5/12) –11
Race 9 - MAURICE HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1400M, Good
Prize Money: $1,725,000, Rating: 80-60, Class 3
#10 Golden Express will win off his fabulous closing run at his first Hong Kong start and the step up in trip to 1400m is a huge plus. The only other possible chance is #6 Voyage Bubble, who is well placed here to run on speed with the Magic Man aboard. That’s basically the race but for the multiples #12 Super Sunny Sing is third pick given his great consistency and #8 Golden Emire has a rough chance.
Selections: 10XXX – 6XX – 12 – 8
Against: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 14.
Race 10 - HIGHLAND REEL HANDICAP
Turf, “A” Course, 1400M, Good
Prize Money: $2,640,000, Rating: 105-80, Class 2
The last race is very open. There appears to be a lack of speed, so will favour the on-pace runners #8 Circuit Stellar from #10 Beauty Live. There are other hopes as well.
Selections: 8 – 10 – (4/5/9/11) (the third line is in brackets as we cant split these chances).
Against: 1, 2, 3, 6, 13, 14
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Armidale Cup Day tips, best odds & quaddie | December 11, 2022
December 10, 2022 1:09 pm.
Nathan Keven
What Armidale Cup Day 2022
Where Armidale Jockey Club, 12 Barney Street, Armidale NSW, 2350
When Sunday, December 11, 2022
First Race 1:10pm AEDT
Visit Ladbrokes
We head to Armidale Jockey Club for a competitive eight-race program on Armidale Cup Day this Sunday afternoon. We have 10 acceptors for this year’s edition of the 1900m contest plus plenty more undercard racing to dissect. The rail is in the true position the entire circuit and we should be racing on a Good 4 surface come Sunday afternoon with clear weather predicted throughout the weekend. The first race is scheduled to get underway at 1:10pm AEDT.
Armidale Cup: Pepper’s Ghost
You’ve got to think the Country Classic form at Rosehill on November 26 must be the correct one for this year’s edition of the Armidale Cup, it’s just a matter of which one, and we’ve landed with the Brett Cavanough-trained Pepper’s Ghost. He was the clear forgive run in that race when running fifth behind Marsabit by 1.1 lengths when he didn’t find any clear running before the final 200m and proceeded to hit the line with plenty still left up his sleeve. Meanwhile, race rival Point Counterpoint got every favour and now receives a 5kg penalty dropping in grade while our five-year-old and Beckford stay the same weight from their respective runs. It should be a different story on Sunday afternoon with Peppers Ghost drawn barrier-two while the others in the market have drawn wide in a small field, so hopefully jockey Jon Grisedale can utilize the soft draw and find leaders back here behind getting out late to score.
Armidale Cup
Race 7 – #8 Pepper’s Ghost (2)
5yo Gelding | T: Brett Cavanough | J: Jon Grisedale (55kg)
$5.50 with Bet365
Best Bet at Armidale: Cyber Attack
Cyber Attack was originally with the John O’Shea yard but has been shifted to Stirling Osland and we’re excited to see what he can produce. He could be a risk as a best bet on Sunday as he’s first-up after a 340-day spell, but on what he produced in his first career start he picks himself in this field at Armidale over the 1100m. Cyber Attack was very strong on debut only beaten by Stick To Your Guns by 2.2 lengths and stuck on very gamely against a field full of eventual winners. The only real query for us with this son of Exosphere is the lack of an official trial for this four-year-old but you’ve got to take it on trust that he wouldn’t be racing here on Sunday if he wasn’t ready to go. Brooke Stower takes the reins here and she should like to find the one-by-one in running before only having one horse to chase, which should be the race favourite Toomuchinformation.
Best Bet
Race 3 – #1 Cyber Attack (8)
4yo Gelding | T: Stirling Osland | J: Brooke Stower (59kg)
$2.70 with Neds
Next Best at Armidale: Ezekeil
The sprinting feature on Sunday is where our next best bet of the lands with the Cody Morgan-trained four-year-old Ezekeil. His last start effort was even behind Pokerjack at Rosehill and was too tough a task for this son of Divine Prophet, go back to his second up run at Tamworth on September 26 when he was nosed out late in open company over the 1200m and he looks well set up here to be finding the winners circle for the first time this preparation. We love him stepping back to the 1100m here after a freshen and finds a track he found success at last preparation so he should be competitive here, especially after drawing the saloon passage with barrier-two, jockey Ben Looker should be able to be right in the finish on Ezekeil.
Next Best
Race 6 – #5 Ezekeil (2)
4yo Gelding | T: Cody Morgan | J: Ben Looker (55kg)
$3 with PlayUp
Sunday quaddie tips for Armidale
Armidale quadrella selections
Sunday, December 11, 2022
1-2-4-5-6-10
3-7
1-2-8
3-4-5-7-9
Investment: $180 for 100%
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Bendigo best bets & quaddie tips | December 11, 2022
December 9, 2022 2:34 pm.
Ciaran Jackman
What Bendigo Races
Where Bendigo Jockey Club – Heinz St, White Hills VIC 3550
When Sunday, December 11, 2022
First Race 1:25pm AEDT
Ladbrokes Logo
Visit Ladbrokes
Racing returns to Bendigo Jockey Club this Sunday where they will host a very competitive eight-race program. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with good weather on the forecast for central Victoria, we expect to see a Good track for the entire program. The rail will be in the True position for the entire circuit, which historically means the track should play fair for all runners.
The first race will get underway at 1:25pm AEDT.
Best Bet at Bendigo – He’s A Legend
Our best bet of the day will come up in race seven over 1600m, where He’s A Legend from the Julius Sandhu yard will be looking to record back-to-back wins after he broke his maiden at Moe last start on November 26. This son of Snitzel has only missed the placings at one of his four career starts, which was at his only attempt at 2000m plus. This three-year-old gelding raced at metropolitan meetings at his first three starts before going to the provincial meeting at Moe to break his maiden status. At his last start, this guy waited for the second horse to get to him, before kicking away when he was challenged in the final 100m. On Sunday he should find the lead uncontested and should be able to run the race to suit himself, and if that happens, he should be winning again.
Best Bet
Race 7 – Silk #1 He’s A Legend (3)
3yo Gelding | T: Julius Sandhu | J: Beau Mertens (58kg)
$3.70 with Palmerbet
Next Best at Bendigo – Hollerween
In the staying race of the day over 2200m, we will be siding with another Julius Sandhu runner, Hollerween, who won well last start over 2060m at Cranbourne on November 25. That last start victory was very impressive, and he won by two lengths, eased down in the final 50m of the race, indicating to us that he will love the step up to 2200m this Sunday. This son of Holler is getting stronger his races the further he goes, recording a win and a second placing at both of his starts over 2000m. From barrier nine Beau Mertens will have to cross the rest of the field to find the lead, but if none of his rivals kick up on the inside, he will get to the lead easily and most likely find it uncontested. Mertens has ridden this guy at his last two starts and he is starting to build a very nice relationship with him, so if he can have this gelding in a rhythm, bowling along out in front, he will be very hard to run down once again.
Next Best
Race 6 – Silk #2 Hollerween (9)
4yo Gelding | T: Julius Sandhu | J: Beau Mertens (58kg)
$4.20 with Neds
Best Value at Bendigo – Airraid
The Maiden Plate over 1300m will have Airraid from the Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes stable engaged as he returns from a five-month spell, with two quiet Flemington jump-outs under his belt before going to the races this preparation. This son of Manhattan Rain showed good signs throughout his first campaign without winning, however, he didn’t run on a track that was rated better than a Heavy 8. He obviously doesn’t go very well on the Heavy tracks, and now that he finds a Good track on Sunday, we expect to see a much better performance from this four-year-old gelding. Online bookmakers are giving us a very nice price of $15 first-up, which looks to be well-overs in our opinion.
Best Value
Race 4 – Silk #1 Airraid (11)
4yo Gelding | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Blaike McDougall (56.5kg)
$15 with Ladbrokes
Sunday quaddie tips for Bendigo
Bendigo quadrella selections
Sunday, December 10, 2022
2-3-5-6-10
1-5
8-10
3-9-10-13-14
Investment: $100 for 100%
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HKIR full racing tips & quaddie | Sha Tin | Sunday, December 12
December 9, 2022 5:40 pm.
Nathan Keven
What 2022 HKIR
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, December 11, 2022
First Race 12:25pm HKT | 3:25pm AEDT
Watch Live
Ladbrokes Logo
Visit Ladbrokes
The Hong Kong International Races are finally upon us after an epic International Jockey Championship on Wednesday night, with Tom Marquand and Silvestre de Sousa sharing the spoils.
It’s on to Sha Tin now though with four Group 1 races scheduled for Sunday afternoon – The Hong Kong Vase, Hong Kong Sprint, Hong Kong Mile and Hong Kong Cup – plus we’ve got a stacked undercard as well with plenty of progressive talent on display. We’re set to get underway at 12:25pm HKT (3:25pm AEDT).
We should be racing on a fair surface on Sunday afternoon with a Good 4 track expected, as well as the rail going back to the A Course for the feature race-day of the Hong Kong season.
Keep reading for our free race-by-race preview and quaddie selections
Race 1: Beauty Generation Handicap (C4) (1400m)
We kick-off proceedings with a Class 4 contest over the 1400m in what looks a very open race on paper. Perfect Peach makes our on top selection here with three starts over the 1400m for a win and another minor placing. He’s been very consistent and after drawing wide last start on November 12 at Sha Tin he gets a much better run-in transit here from barrier-one. Lyle Hewitson has ridden this son of Sebring every start this preparation and we can see why he wouldn’t want to be dropping off on this occasion. He may need a little bit of luck getting clear running – however – if Perfect Peach does see daylight turning for home, he looks very hard to beat.
Selections:
silks9
PERFECT PEACH
Unibet
silks11
HAPPY LAND
Palmerbet
silks2
WIDE BLUE YONDER
Betfair
silks1
CIRCUIT MIGHTY
Neds
Race 2: Falvelon Handicap (C4) (1200m)
Frankie Lor and Zac Purton will be looking to combine with Nicetobemet in this 1200m Class 4 contest. He’s first starter by Deep Field and his trials have indicated to us he’s ready and raring to go here and looks one of the better bets on the card. He’s improved with every one of his three trials, but it was his latest effort at Happy Valley that really caught the eye on November 26, when he sat off the leaders over the 1200m before letting down to win comfortably by a half-length. The horse he beat in that trial Allgreektome come out and ran second at Happy Valley on Wednesday night, so the form he holds coming into his first career start looks as though it should hold up nicely. Barrier 10 is the only real concern here – however – we have Hong Kong’s best Zac Purton booked to ride so you’d expect him to find a spot somewhere mid-field with cover and provided he gets a soft enough run Nicetobemet should be hitting the line best.
Selections:
silks8
NICETOBEMET
Unibet
silks1
THE HULK
Palmerbet
silks13
MARVEL DRAGON
Betfair
silks3
REGENCY BO BO
Neds
Next Best
Race 2 – silks#8 Nicetobemet (10)
3yo Gelding | T: Frankie Lor | J: Zac Purton (56.5kg)
Bet with PlayUp
Race 3: Lord Kanaloa Handicap (C3) (1200m)
We’ve got two likely leaders and short-priced favourites with Victor The Winner and Dragon’s Luck both looking to press forward in this 1200m event, so we’ve looked for something to sit in behind the hot speed with first-up European import Silver Hammer looking a good each-way bet in this race. He’s had two trials down the Sha Tin straight and has been hard held in both efforts, he’ll sneak in under the radar with the market likely to gravitate to the known quantities in the race, but we’re willing to risk siding with this Richard Gibson-trained gelding on what we’ve seen. He’s had a win in Europe to boot as well, so the fact he comes to Hong Kong with a win to his name is a nice bonus. Karis Teetan is booked to ride and from the awkward draw, look for him to try and slot in behind the speed before finding down the middle of the track. You should be getting a good price with online bookmakers just for this son of Kodi Bear to run into the minors.
Selections:
silks10
SILVER HAMMER
Unibet
silks4
VICTOR THE WINNER
Palmerbet
silks6
READY TO WIN
Betfair
silks14
DRAGON’S LUCK
Neds
Race 4: The Hong Kong Vase (G1) (2400m)
The Group 1 Hong Kong Vase is the first of four Group 1 events for the afternoon and is set over the 2400m. Glory Vase ($3) heads the market with Stone Age ($3.50) and Win Marilyn ($5) not far behind with Ladbrokes. You’re looking at a double figure quote for every other runner with European traveller Botanik ($15) and best of the locals Senor Toba ($11).
Can Glory Vase take out a third Hong Kong Vase? Or is there an upset brewing?
Click here for our full preview of the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase
Race 5: The Hong Kong Sprint (G1) (1200m)
The second of the four Group 1’s come in the fifth race of the card, and it’s traditionally been a race for the locals in the Hong Kong Sprint. Lucky Sweynesse ($3) holds the favour of online betting sites with Wellington ($4) not too far behind. The Japanese contingent are the only other gallopers found in the market with Gendarme ($9) and Meikei Yell ($11) finding some support.
Will it be a Hong Kong one, two in the sprinting feature? Or can one of the Japanese hopefuls produce a peak performance?
Click here for our full preview of the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint
Race 6: Jim And Tonic Handicap (C3) (1800m)
Sweet Encounter looks a clear best of the day on Sunday afternoon in this 1800m contest. He should really be looking for five straight wins on the trot on this occasion but due to missing the start on November 12 he’s had a minor blemish to his resume. His win last time out on November 27 at Sha Tin was dominant when Zac Purton took luck out of the equation and elected to lead over the 1600m, before kicking well clear of his rivals to score an eased down two length victory. He steps up to the 1800m for the first time, and does cop a 4kg penalty for his win, but he simply rates to win again with a field that doesn’t impose much of a threat outside of last start winner Woodfire Bro. John Size and Zac Purton team up again here and from barrier-two has plenty of options, he can either lead again and find late, or sit in behind the speed and pounce on his rivals, we’ll leave that up to the king of Hong Kong and hopefully we can collect post-race.
Selections:
silks3
SWEET ENCOUNTER
Unibet
silks4
WOODFIRE BRO
Palmerbet
silks6
SECRET VISION
Betfair
silks10
LOOKING COOL
Neds
Best Bet
Race 6 – silks#3 Sweet Encounter (2)
4yo Gelding | T: John Size | J: Zac Purton (57.5kg)
Bet with Ladbrokes
Race 7: The Hong Kong Mile (G1) (1600m)
The third Group 1 up for grabs is the Hong Kong Mile as the champion miler himself Golden Sixty ($1.50) looks to make it three in a row for Vincent Ho and trainer Francis Lui. California Spangle ($4.50) and Japan’s Schnell Meister ($11) have seen some support as well but it’s all about the Hong Kong champion in this one.
Can Golden Sixty create history and a third Hong Kong Mile?
Click here for our full preview of the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile
Race 8: The Hong Kong Cup (G1) (2000m)
The final Group 1 for the Hong Kong international races is the Hong Kong Cup, and we may be saving the best for last as Romantic Warrior ($3) look a future superstar in this one. His key rivals however have seen support with Jack D’or ($4.20) and Panthalassa ($4.60) not without their admirers. It’s a cracking edition of the Cup so it should be a thrilling finally to the four Group 1 contests.
Click here for our full preview of the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup
Race 9: Maurice Handicap (C3) (1400m)
Golden Express was unfortunate not to be winning on his Hong Kong debut over the 1200m and now stepping up to the 1400m here, he looks well suited to find the winners enclosure. His run behind Victor The Winner on November 20 was enormous after getting further back then expected and rattled home late to find second, if he gets clear air sooner it’s fair to say Golden Express would be looking for back-to-back wins. This is a much tougher race on paper and the speed map doesn’t flatter our on top pick from barrier-eight, but he gets Zac Purton again and if he can find cover on the outside line it may be a benefit for us overall after being checked between horses first up.
Selections:
silks10
GOLDEN EXPRESS
Unibet
silks12
SUPER SUNNY SING
Palmerbet
silks1
BON’S A PEARLA
Betfair
silks6
VOYAGE BUBBLE
Neds
Race 10: Highland Reel Handicap (C2) (1400m)
The final race is a Class 2 over 1400m and it’s where you’ll find our best value runner of the day with the Frankie Lor-trained Eason. His last start effort on October 23 at this track and distance was phenomenal and really should have found a minor placing at the least, after getting posted three wide no cover the trip, jockey Alexis Badel elected to take off mid-race before he tired late. He’s won a trial since that effort and looks to be going even better heading into the weekend, with Silvestre de Sousa booked to ride and ready to bounce off his IJC win on Wednesday, we’re hoping he just pings the lids from barrier-10 and plays catch me if you can with a very light 53.5kg in this quality field.
Selections:
silks11
EASON
Unibet
silks12
KING LAND
Palmerbet
silks3
BLAZE WARRIOR
Betfair
silks5
IMA SINGLE MAN
Neds
Best Value
Race 10 – silks#11 Eason (10)
4yo Gelding | T: Frankie Lor | J: Silvestre de Sousa (53.5kg)
Bet with Ladbrokes
Sha Tin quaddie tips for HKIR 2022
Sha Tin quadrella selections
Sunday, December 11, 2022
1-4
1-2-3-12
1-5-6-10-12
3-4-5-11-12
Investment: $200 for 100%
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Hong Kong Vase best bets & betting preview | Sunday, December 11
December 9, 2022 10:13 am.
Nathan Keven
What 2022 Hong Kong Vase
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, December 11, 2022 | 2:10pm HKT (5:10pm AEDT) | Race 4
Prizemoney HK$22,000,000
Distance 2400m
Status Group 1
Conditions Weight For Age
2021 Winner Glory Vase (7) | T: Tomohito Ozeki | J: Joao Moreira (57kg)
Visit Ladbrokes
The 2022 Hong Kong Vase (2400m) is the first of four Group 1 races on Hong Kong International Race-day and it’s for the stayers over the 2400m. It’s been a race traditionally dominated by the international raiders from both Europe and Japan, with last year’s champion Glory Vase looking to defend his crown and chalk up his third win in the race.
Online bookmakers have opened in favour of the previous year’s winning combination of Joao Moreira and Tomohito Ozeki with Glory Vase ($2.70) heading the market. The second line of betting we find shared between Aiden O’Brien-trained three-year-old Stone Age ($5) making the trek from America after running second in the breeder’s Cup Turf, and Japan’s Win Marilyn ($5) who is Group 1 placed in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin. The best of the Hong Kong chances seems to lie with the former Australian galloper Senor Toba ($6.50) who finds itself in the single digits as well after a career peak running in behind Romantic Warrior in the Group 2 Jockey Club Cup.
There seems to be enough speed on paper for the backmarkers to get into the race late with the likely speed coming from French galloper Botanik (Barrier-five) and Broome drawn to his outside in barrier-six. These two should be pressing forward allowing race favourite Glory Vase to slot in behind from barrier-four with Stone Age and Win Marilyn doing something similar. It looks pretty ugly for the Hong Kong trio however, with Senor Toba, Panfield and Butterfield all likely to be switched off at the back of the field or press forward with the unfortunate likelihood of being cast wide without cover.
Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Hong Kong Vase.
The ultra-consistent three-year-old for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore has found his way to our top selection with Stone Age in this year’s edition of the Hong Kong Vase. His Breeder’s Cup Turf effort last start at Keeneland on November 5 was outstanding, and just ran into a future star in Rebel’s Romance on that occasion. He box-seated in behind the leaders before producing late as the eventually winner flew down his outside to beat him home by 2.3 lengths. One thing we know about this horse is the 2400m on a Good surface shouldn’t be an issue at all as he should be getting the exact same run in transit on Sunday as he did in America. His form behind horses like Luxembourg and Bay Bridge back in the UK rates extremely well here and provided star jockey Ryan Moore can get clear running turning for home from barrier-one, Stone Age should be right in the finish here.
Win Marilyn looks the best of the Japanese hopefuls for us as she comes here after a strong performance in the Group 1 QEII Cup at Hanshin on November 13. She was beaten by Geraldina who looks another superstar on the rise in Japan, so we’ve got to think the form is strong enough here in the Vase. If you go two starts back in her form as well, she beat home race favourite Glory Vase in the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen quite comfortably and has a fitness edge on her key rival here. She’s the only mare in the race, so she gets a slight weight allowance against the boys, plus in-form hoop Damian Lane sticks with her after taking the reins in the QEII.
Botanik looks the one at the big overs quote with online betting sites heading into the weekend, as William Buick takes the ride for team Godolphin and Andre Fabre. This son of Golden Horn looks to be the obviously leader from barrier five and we think there’s a slight possibility Broome continues his nasty habit of missing the start. He’ll give a strong kick and he loves the firmer surface on offer after failing at Longchamp on October 1 on ground that was bottomless. Prior to that he’d won three in a row, and if he can produce at that level here, he’ll give a great sight.
No disrespect to the reining champion Glory Vase he’s just under the odds coming here first-up and we feel isn’t going as well coming into the race as he did in the 2021 edition. His best form is clearly up to these and if you’re playing Trifecta’s and First Four’s you’d be hard pressed to leave him out. Joao Moreira looks to return to the saddle in Hong Kong a Group 1 winner as well, so this guy will just continue to firm.
2022 Hong Kong Vase selections & best bets
Selections:
10
STONE AGE
bet365
silks9
WIN MARILYN
unibet
silks5
BOTANIK
Ladbrokes
silks3
GLORY VASE
Palmerbet
$100 betting strategy
$40 win Stone Age (#10) @ $3.40 with Ladbrokes
$40 win Win Marilyn (#9) @ $5 with Ladbrokes
$20 win Botanik (#5) @ $7 with Ladbrokes
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Hong Kong Sprint best bets & preview | Sunday, December 11
December 9, 2022 10:40 am.
Nathan Keven
What 2022 Hong Kong Sprint
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, December 11, 2022 | 2:50pm HKT (5:50pm AEDT) | Race 5
Prizemoney HK$22,000,000
Distance 1200m
Status Group 1
Conditions Weight For Age
2021 Winner Sky Field (1) | T: Caspar Fownes | J: Blake Shinn (57kg)
Visit Ladbrokes
We have got a full field of 14 runners accepted for the Hong Kong Sprint, with history saying this race is one of the main chances for the locals to get a win on the board as seven of the last eight editions of this race have been won by Hong Kong trained horses.
Post-barrier draw has the locals the main chances with online bookmakers with Group 2 Jockey Club Sprint winner Lucky Sweynesse ($3) holding favouritism and Wellington ($3.80) not far behind on the second line of betting. The Japanese hold the rest of the market hopes with Gendarme ($9), Meikei Yell ($9), Resistencia ($12), and Naran Huleg ($13). Then it’s write your own ticket for the rest of the Hong Kong chances along with Singapore galloper Lim’s Kosciuszko ($67) the clear outsider of the field.
Regarding the speed map here, it looks a tricky one to dissect, however, Lim’s Kosciuszko will be looking to do what he’s done in Singapore and ping the lids from barrier-four. While we tend to think market favourite Lucky Sweyenesse (barrier three) and Zac Purton will be looking to press forward from the inside. Gendarme (barrier eight) has looked to go forward in Japan as well, so we’d imagine he won’t be too far off the pace. Last year’s runner up Resistencia (barrier one) should lob somewhere midfield as will fellow Japanese runner Naran Huleg (barrier two), while Cordyceps Six (Barrier 13) and last year’s winner Sky Field (barrier 11) will have no choice but to head back to the rear of the field.
Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Hong Kong Sprint.
We found it too hard to go against Lucky Sweynesse here in the Hong Kong Sprint. He’s lifted to a new level this preparation and found a peak Group 2 success in the Jockey Club Sprint on November 20, showing some class and versatility on that occasion, when taking a sit mid-field due to barrier-11 and stormed past his rivals to win comfortably smashing the clock in the process. He stopped the clock at a staggering 1:07:55 and while it was due to a hot tempo that day, we can’t see why he doesn’t set up just as well on Sunday. Zac Purton has been with this four-year-old the last two starts and both have been epic performances. If Lucky Sweynesse repeats what he did last start from an even more suitable barrier draw here, we find it hard to see any of the Hong Kong sprinters turning the tables. Even though Wellington pulled up lame and had excuses, the speed map seems to favour Lucky Sweynesse, so we think you’ve got to be siding with him post-barrier draw.
The Japanese contingent bring over a couple nice sprinting types and the one we think can run boldly at a nice each-way price is Naran Huleg. He ran in behind race rival Gendarme beaten a length in the Group 1 sprinters stakes at Nakayama on October 2, he was unfortunate not to be in the finish as he found trouble at the 300m and was forced back inside between runners before running out of time at the post. If he got out any earlier, it would’ve been a photo finish and now drawn barrier-two on Sunday jockey Kyosuke Maruta can just stalk the speed and with some luck can go to post a couple placing’s better than last time out.
Wellington is still the benchmark in Hong Kong, and you can’t put a pen through his chances after last start. He pulled up lame when running into sixth behind Lucky Sweynesse and you’d be crazy to think on his best form he’s not a winning hope. You’ve got to take it on face value that Richard Gibson and the team wouldn’t be running here if he was fit and ready to go, so he goes in the multiples for sure. They’ve booked gun hoop Ryan Moore as well with injured Alexis Badel on the sidelines, however, if anyone can overcome a tricky barrier, there’s no one you’d rather have booked to ride than European’s best Ryan Moore.
All the other Japanese runners including Gendarme, Meikei Yell and Resistencia have all mixed and matched wins in the past and all look a chance for the minors. Gendarme makes the cut however, with the most likely to press forward and be in position to strike while the others may be left chasing.
2022 Hong Kong Sprint selections & best bets
Selections:
4
LUCKY SWEYNESSE
bet365
silks6
NARAN HULEG
unibet
silks1
WELLINGTON
Ladbrokes
silks3
GENDARME
Palmerbet
$100 betting strategy
$80 win Lucky Sweynesse (#4) @ $3 with Ladbrokes
$20 win Naran Huleg (#6) @ $13 with Neds
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Hong Kong Mile race preview & best bets | Sunday 11/12/2022
December 9, 2022 9:33 am.
Nathan Keven
What 2022 Hong Kong Mile
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, December 11, 2022 | 4:00pm HKT (7:00pm AEDT) | Race 7
Prizemoney HK$30,000,000
Distance 1600m
Status Group 1
Conditions Weight For Age
2021 Winner Golden Sixty (2) | T: Francis Lui | J: Vincent Ho (57kg)
Visit Ladbrokes
It’s an outstanding edition of this year’s Hong Kong Mile with back-to-back winner Golden Sixty trying to replicate the feat of Good Ba Ba (2007-2009) to win three in a row. The 1600m contest sees a field of 10 with nine of the runners looking to spoil the party for one of the world’s best. Six Hong Kong gallopers are set to line up, as well as three Japanese with the lone Australian Annabel Neasham-trained Laws Of Indices making the trip.
The Hong Kong champion horse Golden Sixty has opened a clear favourite for this one with online bookmakers at $1.50 as Vincent Ho and Francis Lui combine again. California Spangle isn’t without his admirers either at around $4.50, then you’re getting double figure odds for all other runners with Schnell Meister ($11) and Salios ($14) the best of the market hopes for the Japanese.
California Spangle and Zac Purton will be the clear leader in the race here, they’ll look to steal some early sectionals as they did in the Jockey Club Mile before trying to pinch a break on the well-drawn favourite Golden Sixty (barrier four) who looks to map perfectly here. Schnell Meister (barrier one) should slot in behind while Beauty Joy (barrier five) and Danon Scorpion (barrier six) can find their positions somewhere midfield.
Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Hong Kong Mile.
Golden Sixty is the fair favourite and clearly must go on top in the Hong Kong Mile but is unbackable at the extremely short quote. His win first-up in the Jockey Club Mile was breathtaking when storming past California Spangle on what looked an impossible tempo to sprint off, Golden Sixty finished the race with the fastest closing sectional of the day running 21:32s. To put that in perspective, Hong Kong Sprint favourite Lucky Sweynesse ran a 21:88s closing sectional on the same day over a sprinting trip. To say it was a special performance first-up would be an understatement, and from an uncompromising barrier on Sunday you’d have to think if jockey Vincent Ho can find a spot better than midfield turning for home. It is going to take a special performance to chase him down and prevent him from collecting his third win in this great race.
The only horse we want to be having something small on a win line to beat the favourite is Tezuka Takahisa-trained four-year-old Schnell Meister. We’re getting a nice price to back him on the each-way so we’re happy to make him the betting strategy in the race. He looks the best hope of the Japanese runners here and has drawn the perfect gate to be beating home his country rivals again after running fifth in the Mile Championship at Hanshin on November 20. He, Salios and Danon Scorpion all come from that same form-line when beaten by Serifos, however, it was Schnell Meister who was an unlucky beaten favourite on that occasion that found the most trouble when getting too far back in the run and bumping horses when trying to get clear. Once he did find fresh air, he flew home late and should’ve been at least finding the frame. If he can hold his form coming to Hong Kong for the first time, he’s a cracking chance to run into minor money with Christophe Lemaire taking the reins again here. He’ll get leaders back the trip and get every chance to beat the champion if good enough.
California Spangle warrants respect and should have a good time up on speed all to his own, however, he finds his toughest task to date. While a win wouldn’t shock, it’s hard to see him holding off the likes of Golden Sixty when last start in the Jockey Club Mile looked his best chance to turn the tables on the champion horse.
Salios isn’t without a chance as well, barrier eight in the small field looked the biggest sticking point to us, but Ryan Moore is on and his best form when winning two starts back at Tokyo could see Salios find a placing as well.
2022 Hong Kong Mile selections & best bets
Selections:
1
GOLDEN SIXTY
bet365
silks4
SCHNELL MEISTER
unibet
silks2
CALIFORNIA SPANGLE
Ladbrokes
silks3
SALIOS
Palmerbet
$100 betting strategy
$20 win / $80 place Schnell Meister (#4) @ $11 / $2.40 with Neds
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Hong Kong Cup preview & betting tips | Sunday, December 11
December 9, 2022 9:48 am.
Nathan Keven
What 2022 Hong Kong Cup
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, December 11, 2022 | 4:40pm HKT (7:40pm AEDT) | Race 8
Prizemoney HK$34,000,000
Distance 2000m
Status Group 1
Conditions Weight For Age
2021 Winner Loves Only You (4) | T: Yoshito Yahagi | J: Yuga Kawada (55kg)
Visit Ladbrokes
The final Group 1 of the Hong Kong International Race-day is the Hong Kong Cup (2000m). Over the past three editions of the race, it’s been the Japanese that have produced the winner with Love Only You, Normcore and Win Bright all saluting in this great race. A very competitive field of 12 are set to line up here with six Hong Kong locals, five Japanese, and a lone European looking to take out the HK$34,000,000 on offer.
Online betting sites have James McDonald’s mount Romantic Warrior the favourite here at around the $3 mark after his enormous effort to win first-up in the Jockey Club Cup. Then it’s all about the Japanese runners here with Jack D’or ($4.20), Panthalassa ($5) and Danon The Kid ($8) all finding themselves in the single figures. The lone UK galloper Order of Australia ($34) is the clear outsider of the overseas contingent while there’s yet to be a move for the local hopes outside of the favourite.
On paper this speed map looks hectic with plenty of go forward horse’s here. Panthalassa (barrier eight), Money Catcher (barrier four) and Ka Ying Star (barrier nine) will all be shooting out of the gates try and find the rail to lead. Jack D’or should be prominent and get the back of the speed drawn barrier-two, while race favourite Romantic Warrior will look to be three pairs back and finding cover early on. We think this field could well be strung out so even some wider drawn horses can still find some cover mid-field or worse, so if you like something drawn wider it shouldn’t be too much of a deterrent.
Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Hong Kong Cup.
Although the Hong Kong Cup looks one of the tougher Group 1’s of the afternoon, we’re keen to be strong on the side of the Japanese colt Panthalassa. His form is nothing short of phenomenal and his style of racing is electrifying, if you don’t get excited by the prospect of a horse that just loves to put a space on his rivals, look away now cause that’s exactly what this son of Lord Kanaloa will be looking to do. Despite a stack of speed in the race Panthalassa won’t go down without a fight, just as he did in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at Tokyo on October 30. He left his rivals chasing from the 600m pole and didn’t look like he was going to stop before Equinox spoiled the party right on the winning post. Prior to that he did the same thing against race rival Jack D’or at Sapporo and was only beaten a lip on that occasion as well. You know exactly what you’re going to get from this guy, plus he’s ultra-consistent and if he can reproduce his peak of winning the Dubai Turf back in March, he’s going to take some chasing down and we don’t think they will.
If there is one horse to chase down our top pick, it’s got to be Romantic Warrior. The tempo is this race is going to suit his pattern of racing with James McDonald looking to pass some tiring horses turning for home. His win first-up was impressive enough but going back to his win in the Group 1 QEII Cup at Sha Tin on April 24 was just as eye-catching and from there you knew this horse had plenty of progression. He can win this race provided he finds cover mid-race, and while this is a much better field than what he faced first-up, Romantic Warrior rates to be a winning hope.
Lei Papale comes into this race with good enough form to say she can find the minor placings. She was luckless in last year’s edition of the race when finding nothing but backsides in the home straight against eventual winner Loves Only You. She matched motors with race rival Danon The Kid at Tokyo on October 9 so the price discrepancy leaves her over the odds and we wouldn’t talk you out of an each-way play there.
Jack D’or rounds out the top four and it’s purely on the speed map, he rates to get the perfect run, but with some tiring horses falling in his lap we can see him getting caught up in between horses. If he does get out with time to spare you’ve got to think on his best form, he’s a winning hope.
2022 Hong Kong Cup selections & best bets
Selections:
1
PANTHALASSA
bet365
silks2
ROMANTIC WARRIOR
unibet
silks12
LEI PAPALE
Ladbrokes
silks3
JACK D’OR
Palmerbet
$100 betting strategy
$100 win Panthalassa (#1) @ $5 with Ladbrokes
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Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022
December 11, 2022
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Sunday, December 11, 2022
Gulfstream Park 10th Race – Post time: 4:35 ET
9-Erna (5/2)
Tipped her hand in an excellent debut performance last month at Aqueduct when getting tagged near the wire in a middle distance maiden juvenile turf event while winding up almost four lengths clear of the rest. It must be noted that the filly who beat her – Liguria – subsequently was shipped to Del Mar and captured the Jimmy Durante Stakes-G3 in stylish fashion, and we highly doubt there is anything as good as she in this affair. The daughter of Curlin shows three nice recent breezes to tick her over, so with the switch to Luis Saez and at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
Los Alamitos 5th race – Post time: 2:29 PT
3-Commander Carl (3-1)
Showed little in his debut at Del Mar in early September when finishing far back in a maiden special weight sprint but left that form far behind in his second career outing when earning a strong speed figure in an authoritative maiden $50,000 score at Santa Anita last month. Protected today in a sign of confidence in this starter allowance sprint, the son of Midshipman retains winning pilot Edwin Maldonado, shows a pair of sharp workouts since raced, and catches a field that should allow him to be the controlling speed at this abbreviated five and one-half furlong distance. Listed at 3-1 on the morning line, the Dan Blacker-trained sophomore offers excellent value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
December 11, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card ready to go and there will be a Pick 5 carryover of $13,803.13. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus. On Friday night the Pick 4 had a hefty $37,695 in the pool.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7
4-Instant Wynn (8-1)-Paced the back half in 57.3 in a needed start to finish 2nd. Now Plano takes the lines and that shouldn't hurt chances. This 3-year-old filly is worth a swing and should offer a solid price.
5-Hang Ten Tuck (8-1)-Makes the 2nd start on Lasix after pacing the 2nd half in 56.2. Also, had the fastest last quarter in this field (.28). Now tries Lasix for the 2nd time and is another price shot that could take a picture.
7-SB Prince Archie (2-1)-This 3-year-old is 0-15 lifetime but has hit the board 8 times. The 2-1 morning line is tough to swallow but did face better in last. Willing to use at a short price with long shots playable in later legs but isn't a cinch.
Race 8
2-Prom Queen (3-1)-The Schneider/Mullet combo has been connecting to start the meet and this mare has won 2 in a row. This gal has hit the board in 18 of 33 starts and has taken 8 pictures in 2022. Best to respect chances of a 3-Peat, has done well at Hoosier (44-12-7-3).
3-Nebble Hanover (9/5)-Has been an odds-on winner in the last couple to start the meet and has looked the part. Similar to the one above, likes to win. Has captured 8 of 32 this year and will be another small price in what looks to be a 2-horse race.
Race 9
2-Salary (4-1)-Won the 1st start in town easily, then bumped up, didn't get a great trip and that took its toll. Moves inside from post 8 and that could be the winning difference.
3-Brooklyn Moonshine (9/2)-Dropped to this level last week and Plano tried a different tactic. Left from the rail and tried to make every call a winning one but wilted down the lane. Will look for a different plan tonight and could make amends.
5-Delightfully Wild (9/5)-This should be a meaningful drop from the FM Open class and was cashing 3rd place checks versus that kind. This veteran should be a main player at a tiny price.
Race 10
3-Winds Of Winter (10-1)-Made a needed start versus better last week and should relish the company. This will be the 2nd time for Lasix and can offer a solid price.
7-Mr Vlos (3-1)-Comes off a decent try in the 1st start of the meet and now Sobey takes the lines, and he has been doing well. Came the back half in .57 and could be better after a race over the track.
8-JP Jetty (1-1)-Got up in time in an impressive 1st career start. Starting outside will make it more difficult but looks like the one to beat despite this post draw.
0.20 Pick 4
4,5,7/2,3/2,3,5/3,7,8
Total Bet=$10.80
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Runninginthemoney He's a pretty reliable finisher with a little versatility in his running style, and he proved a good fit with similar in that solid try last time out. Tough here.
#1 Tambourine Star Dropper comes off the bench when last seen on LA Derby Day, but it's worth noting he already had a couple chances at this level last season and this team probably isn't going to offer much of a price. Capable.
#2 Smarty Alex Finisher might be along too late, but he's a decent fit in here while coming in from Indiana, and this barn has done some really good work since heading out on their own last year.
Race Summary Runninginthemoney should get the right kind of trip in here, and something like his last might be enough to get him home at a playable enough price.
Fair Grounds - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Lucky Crusader Price chance comes off the September break, and I think he might be an okay fit at this price with some bounce back hope off the Louisiana Downs clunker last out.
#4 Overthought He has generally been facing better than he's going to find in this spot, and his Churchill running line last out would keep him in the picture here.
#7 Plemmonston He's another who has been racing at higher prices and seems like a good fit here, and his form is actually sort of reliable for a horse at this level.
Race Summary Lucky Crusader should be a good number on the board, and he owns a couple back races that might at least keep him interesting in a spot where a bunch of horses shipping in from out of state might take action.
Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Doctor Nash He has some speed and an ability to settle and finish if needed, but I think he finds a really good spot that might give him first jump on some of the other threats in here. Mid-range price chance.
#5 Slim Man He rises off the pricey claim while in good form, and this team can always be tough with anything they claim. Think those last two efforts will class up really well here.
#7 Britain's Kitten He beat Slim Man when they met at Churchill last time out, and I bet he still offers a better price here while racing out of the capable Williamson barn as opposed to 'Man who now goes for the big-name Amoss barn.
Race Summary Doctor Nash should get a pretty cozy trip near the top, and he might be able to give himself a little cushion into the lane on the pair coming in from those solid Churchill $75,000 spot.
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Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: NBA Sacramento +1 1/2 over NY Knicks
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Free play from Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Houston Texans/Dallas Cowboys under 44
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