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Santa Anita Tip Sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $250,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $250,000 JOE HERNANDEZ STAKES GARDE II PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 6-1 8 Hit the Road L Dettori PLACE 7-2 5 Whatmakessammyrun J Bravo SHOW 4-1 10 Smooth Like Strait J R Velazquez WILD CARD 6-1 6 Air Force Red J J Hernandez ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Lane Way M E Smith ALTERNATE 2 5-1 4 Gregorian Chant F Prat * EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 5/8/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX COMMENTS: HIT THE ROAD won four of six on Santa Anita grass. WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN is undefeated in three on Santa Anita turf. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT should be near pick form in the third start after a layoff. AIR FORCE RED is an all or nothing horse but mostly all at the distance with three wins in four races. RACE #2 $40,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ETBEST BET: #2 IMPOSSIBLE TASK PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 2 Impossible Task K Kimura PLACE 5-2 3 Bold Endeavor D A Herrera SHOW 7-2 7 Order and Law E A Maldonado WILD CARD 6-1 5 All Eyes West A Aguilar ALTERNATE 1 5-1 6 Direct Line U Rispoli ALTERNATE 2 5-1 1 Baladi T J Pereira * EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX RACE #3 $100,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 ROBERT J FRANKEL STAKES GRADE III PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 10 Queen Goddess J R Velazquez PLACE 7-2 5 Englands Rose V Espinoza SHOW 6-1 9 Avenue de France L Dettori WILD CARD 8-1 7 Closing Remarks J Bravo ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Burgoo Alley F Prat ALTERNATE 2 20-1 8 Island of Love R A Vazquez * EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX COMMENTS: QUEEN GODDESS missed as the favorite in her last. Trainer Michael McCarthy rebounds at 32 percent. ENGLANDS ROSEs internal race numbers improved from start to finish in her last effort. AVENUE DE FRANCE ran a little better times last out. CLOSING REMARKS finished in the trifecta six of eight Santa Anita races. RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 2 Wegonahavagoodtime K Kimura PLACE 6-1 6 Agador Spartacus R A Vazquez SHOW 5-2 4 American Grit J J Hernandez WILD CARD 6-1 7 Curly Esa D A Herrera ALTERNATE 1 8-1 1 Boomer Justice A Aguilar ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Samba Flavor U Rispoli * EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX RACE #5 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 6-1 3 Valiancer K Frey PLACE 5-1 14 Texthelegend J J Hernandez SHOW 7-2 9 Lasmuigh F Prat WILD CARD 6-1 10 Sir Pistolero L Dettori ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Johannes U Rispoli ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Midnight Taxes H I Berrios * EXACTA: 3-14 BOX, 14-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/9/14 BOX, 9/10/14 BOX RACE #6 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:33 PM ETBEST BET: #5 BRIGHT LEAF PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 5 Bright Leaf F Prat PLACE 3-1 6 Houndstooth R A Vazquez SHOW 6-1 2 American Cat K Frey WILD CARD 8-1 3 Street Art M E Smith ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Encode J Bravo ALTERNATE 2 4-1 8 American Refugee J J Hernandez * EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX RACE #7 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 7 Real Fire F Prat PLACE 4-1 10 Katerini A Aguilar SHOW 5-1 5 Albayaader M E Smith WILD CARD 15-1 11 Side by Side G Franco ALTERNATE 1 15-1 8 Saddle Up Jessie L Dettori ALTERNATE 2 15-1 4 Buy American D A Herrera * EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX * TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 5/10/11 BOX RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:37 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 LAS FLORES STAKES GRADE III PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-1 6 Violent Runner E A Ellingwood PLACE 5-1 8 Doris Mae J J Hernandez SHOW 5-2 2 Samurai Charm F Prat WILD CARD 4-1 5 Anacapa J Bravo ALTERNATE 1 7-2 7 Lady T V Espinoza ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Manorelli E A Maldonado * EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX COMMENTS: VIOLENT RUNNER won four in a row including a pair at Santa Anita. DORIS MAE won her last two after more than a year on the sidelines. SAMURAI CHARM won her last two starts and improved her fractions last out. ANACAPAs in race pace numbers improve from gate to wire with better times. RACE #9 $72,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ETBEST BET: #5 ALTRUIST PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 6-1 5 Altruist G Franco PLACE 4-1 1 Lovesick Blues J J Hernandez SHOW 6-1 12 Augusta Melody A Cedillo WILD CARD 6-1 7 Exceed Speed Limit J R Velazquez ALTERNATE 1 10-1 3 Code Duello K Frey ALTERNATE 2 8-1 9 Virat U Rispoli * EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/12 BOX, 1/7/12 BOX
Fair Grounds Tip sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $15,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 5 Chipeee J L Rodriguez PLACE 7-2 3 Harpes Hill R Gutierrez SHOW 5-2 1 Chads Flash C J Hernandez WILD CARD 10-1 4 All Together B Culp ALTERNATE 1 5-2 1A Buck Doll Taylor D Cohen ALTERNATE 2 6-1 7 Tucker the Grump T S Albert * EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX RACE #2 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 LOUISIANA FUTURITY PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-5 5 Norah G D L Parker PLACE 5-1 4 Star Moment C J Hernandez SHOW 9-2 7 Hopeitsmyluckyday E Nieves WILD CARD 5-1 1 New Destiny F Geroux ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Everlyns Angel J Stokes ALTERNATE 2 30-1 6 Paramour J Loveberry * EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX COMMENTS: NORAH G ran the highest last race speed figure missing by a neck at this level. STAR MOMENT won her debut as the 2 to 5 favorite. HOPEITSMYLUCKYDAY got the maiden win in the third try with a little quicker fractions despite going a half furlong longer. NEW DESTINY rides the high win rate rail. RACE #3 $22,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 6-1 1A Glenns Jumper J L Rodriguez PLACE 9-2 5 Optimal Courage D L Parker SHOW 10-1 3 India Ink C J Hernandez WILD CARD 2-1 2 Beverly Park M Pedroza Jr. ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Populist R Gutierrez ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Young Tuscan M Murrill * EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX RACE #4 $52,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ETBEST BET: #1 MEDLEY PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 1 Medley B J Hernandez Jr. PLACE 9-2 6 Vale Male E Nieves SHOW 5-2 7 Nosilverspoonshere C J Lanerie WILD CARD 8-1 3 Shellis Angel M Murrill ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Sky High Susan D L Parker ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Miss Kennedy J Loveberry * EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX RACE #5 $100,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 WOODCHOPPER STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 3 Open Road J Talamo PLACE 5-2 8 Ready to Purrform F Geroux SHOW 6-1 5 Sutherland R Gutierrez WILD CARD 4-1 1 Straight Answer C J Lanerie ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Un Ojo C J Hernandez ALTERNATE 2 6-1 4 Britains Kitten D L Parker * EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX COMMENTS: OPEN ROAD very consistent performer through five career starts for tier one trainer Brad Cox. READY TO PURRFORM drops in class after competing in a trio of graded stakes. SUTHERLAND finished in the trifecta in his last six starts including the highest last race speed figure. STRAIGHT ANSWER will look to improve on his US debut after running competitively in Irish group races. RACE #6 $51,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ETBEST BET: #3 KUPUNA PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 8-5 3 Kupuna R Gutierrez PLACE 9-2 2 Bright Spark A Beschizza SHOW 7-2 6 Guntown F Geroux WILD CARD 4-1 4 Global Sensation J Theriot ALTERNATE 1 10-1 5 Ricky Bobby E Nieves ALTERNATE 2 6-1 1 French Composer M Pedroza Jr. * EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ETBEST BET: #5 VIVACIOUSLY PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 5 Vivaciously F Geroux PLACE 3-1 1 Comparative C J Hernandez SHOW 8-1 7 Nancy Spain C J Lanerie WILD CARD 9-2 8 Ghostly Girl B J Hernandez Jr. ALTERNATE 1 10-1 9 Spartan Queen J Loveberry ALTERNATE 2 10-1 11 Lovin On the Run B Culp * EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 PAGO HOP STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-1 3 Dreamworker D L Parker PLACE 8-1 4 Trobairitz A Beschizza SHOW 3-1 9 Free Like a Girl P L Cotto Jr. WILD CARD 6-1 6 Fancy Martini J Graham ALTERNATE 1 3-1 7 A Mo Reay F Geroux ALTERNATE 2 7-2 8 Trail Ridge Road J Loveberry * EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX COMMENTS: DREAMWORKER has two wins in three Fair Grounds grass goes and no win in four elsewhere. TROBAIRITZ also won twice in three on Fair Grounds turf and is winless in eight elsewhere. TRAIL RIDGE ROAD improved in his first four races on grass and then tried dirt last out. That did not work and he goes back to turf. FANCY MARTINI ran better internal pace numbers through the first half mile in his last effort and has a bullet work since. RACE #9 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 LOUISIANA FUTURITY PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 2-1 6 Jack Hammer R Gutierrez PLACE 3-1 2 Z Resurrection B Culp SHOW 7-2 3 Calicoco D L Parker WILD CARD 6-1 4 Kings Lute T Thornton ALTERNATE 1 15-1 7 Ranch Water C J Lanerie ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Stiff Drink A Castillo * EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX COMMENTS: JACK HAMMER won his debut with ease and drew away late. Z RESURRECTION got the maiden win score in career start number two with a dominate wire to wire effort. CALICOCO got incrementally better from race to race in his first three outings. KINGS LUTE ran better pace numbers through 4 furlongs and could up his game today in the classic third start after a layoff. RACE #10 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-1 4 Sweet Chablis R Gutierrez PLACE 9-2 10 Mo Shiro J Loveberry SHOW 4-1 8 Shes Lookin Lucky A Beschizza WILD CARD 9-2 2 Watch This Munny F Geroux ALTERNATE 1 12-1 6 Oath of Allegiance J Graham ALTERNATE 2 8-1 9 Lady With a Cause B J Hernandez Jr. * EXACTA: 4-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/8/10 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $51,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-1 6 Dixie Fury R Santana Jr. PLACE 8-1 1 Atkins N Juarez SHOW 7-2 8 Day Trade T Baze WILD CARD 3-1 7 Lord Grantham F Arrieta ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Salta R Bowen ALTERNATE 2 5-1 2 Rithm Nic K R Jordan * EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX RACE #2 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:58 PM ETBEST BET: #3 KIDS LAST LAUGH PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 2-1 3 Kids Last Laugh F Arrieta PLACE 9-5 9 Magical Song J Talamo SHOW 8-1 2 Bolt for Allison N Juarez WILD CARD 15-1 7 Unstable Princess M Michel ALTERNATE 1 5-1 8 Wish It R Santana Jr. ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Summertime Rose G Saez * EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX RACE #3 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:26 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 1 Doughty J Talamo PLACE 7-2 11 Summorya R Bejarano SHOW 3-1 2 Golden Joy C A Torres WILD CARD 10-1 9 Bennykayandsuzytoo R Bowen ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Sassy Lass C Bailey ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Lassie My Girl R Santana Jr. * EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX RACE #4 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:54 PM ETBEST BET: #5 SUN THUNDER PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 5 Sun Thunder D Cabrera PLACE 10-1 12 Seas of Normandy G Saez SHOW 12-1 3 Hard to Come By A Triana Jr. WILD CARD 30-1 10 Runnin Block R Santana Jr. ALTERNATE 1 7-2 8 The Heights J Talamo ALTERNATE 2 12-1 2 King Russell R Bejarano * EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/5/12 BOX, 3/10/12 BOX RACE #5 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:22 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 9 Stuck N Snow L S Quinonez PLACE 15-1 13 Wicked Prince E Gonzalez SHOW 10-1 10 Chupapi Munyayo R Bejarano WILD CARD 8-1 11 Pearcy Road C A Torres ALTERNATE 1 15-1 14 Shake Up N Juarez ALTERNATE 2 5-1 3 Black Apple R Santana Jr. * EXACTA: 9-13 BOX, 13-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX * TRIFECTA: 9/10/13 BOX, 10/11/13 BOX RACE #6 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 RENAISSANCE STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 7-5 6 Count de Monet S Sanjur PLACE 10-1 3 Spurrier R Bejarano SHOW 6-5 4 Two Eagles River N Juarez WILD CARD 20-1 5 Choctaw Zip D Cabrera ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Frosted Departure F Arrieta ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Bourbon Bash M Michel * EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX COMMENTS: COUNT DE MONET won his three races and they were not close. SPURRIER won his debut with strong race internals. TWO EAGLES RIVER missed by a neck in his last and gets first Lasix. CHOCTAW ZIP improves immensely in his second start. RACE #7 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:18 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 30-1 12 Shes Storming K R Jordan PLACE 8-5 11 Twirled I Castillo SHOW 5-2 10 U Glow Girl J Talamo WILD CARD 12-1 2 Yolanda Who R Santana Jr. ALTERNATE 1 12-1 5 Pioneer Parade C A Torres ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Proud Mule A A Rodriguez * EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX * TRIFECTA: 10/11/12 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX RACE #8 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:46 PM ETBEST BET: #12 PEACE CRUISER PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 7-2 12 Peace Cruiser C A Torres PLACE 3-1 2 Malibu Toast J Talamo SHOW 15-1 8 Barstool Babe R Bejarano WILD CARD 6-1 6 Goldenshuga R Santana Jr. ALTERNATE 1 10-1 10 Dear Lady D Cabrera ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Pacific View N Juarez * EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/8/12 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:14 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 YEARS END STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 12-1 2 Unifying R Santana Jr. PLACE 7-5 1 Defining Purpose D Cabrera SHOW 9-2 7 Bluelightspecial F Arrieta WILD CARD 20-1 5 Charlee Mae N Juarez ALTERNATE 1 5-1 9 Fabulous Candy J Hiraldo ALTERNATE 2 6-1 6 Take Charge Briana C A Torres * EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX COMMENTS: UNIFYING has plenty of early giddy up and go and gets first time Lasix. DEFINING PURPOSE ran the top last race speed figure and drops from a grade II stakes. BLUELIGHTSPECIALs last race was better than it looks in the PPs with better fractions at 1 mile versus 7 furlongs. CHARLEE MAE got the maiden win by destroying the field of 10 by 7 lengths. RACE #10 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-1 13 Uncle Reg N Juarez PLACE 5-2 8 Easy Action R Santana Jr. SHOW 12-1 4 Soybean Man R Bejarano WILD CARD 7-2 6 Eyeing Clover J Talamo ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Woodys Choice C A Torres ALTERNATE 2 20-1 3 Interlock Empire N Juarez * EXACTA: 13-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/8/13 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
Turfway Park Tip Sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $20,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ETBEST BET: #8 TROPIC STORM PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 8 Tropic Storm G Corrales PLACE 20-1 5 Gun Rush J Padron-Barcenas SHOW 6-1 1 Golden Survivor D J Haldar WILD CARD 5-1 3 Eyes of Glory F Peterson ALTERNATE 1 9-2 4 Holiday House J D Ramos ALTERNATE 2 8-1 9 Loot the Moon C Miller * EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ETBEST BET: #5 PURE PANIC PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 5 Pure Panic L Machado PLACE 7-2 7 Strugar J McKee SHOW 10-1 1 Hemp Heaven D Cannon WILD CARD 5-1 10 Dark Oak J D Ramos ALTERNATE 1 5-1 9 Good On Ya D J Haldar ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Spend Benjamins F De La Cruz * EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 8-5 10 More Than Work C Landeros PLACE 9-5 6 King Curlin G Corrales SHOW 6-1 4 Vintage Year F De La Cruz WILD CARD 30-1 3 Self Rule A Lezcano ALTERNATE 1 8-1 7 Qaader W A Rodriguez ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Code Violation D Cannon * EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/6/10 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 5 Ms Merrabel A Achard PLACE 10-1 7 Celestial Spin J D Ramos SHOW 15-1 1 Crossed Up R Aragon WILD CARD 10-1 6 C V Thunder A Lezcano ALTERNATE 1 3-1 2 Supertaleofhoudini D J Haldar ALTERNATE 2 20-1 11 Pelletier F De La Cruz * EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX RACE #5 $72,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 14 Drive for Fun E Esquivel PLACE 12-1 1 Grey Charmer L Machado SHOW 3-1 6 Gilded Ruler C Landeros WILD CARD 5-2 3 Mendenhall G Corrales ALTERNATE 1 10-1 11 Caramelito D J Haldar ALTERNATE 2 5-1 2 Step Forward D Cannon * EXACTA: 14-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/6/14 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX RACE #6 $10,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 9 Memphis Prayer I Ayala PLACE 2-1 11 Hard Rye Guy G Corrales SHOW 9-2 10 Military Force W A Rodriguez WILD CARD 15-1 3 Beocca J D Ramos ALTERNATE 1 15-1 7 Horse Daddy M Franklin ALTERNATE 2 12-1 2 Mr. Cunningham R Chirinos * EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX * TRIFECTA: 9/10/11 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 4 Sassy and Bold L Machado PLACE 7-2 6 Whatchamacall G Corrales SHOW 6-1 11 Liliesformillie J Gilligan WILD CARD 4-1 5 Secret Statement V Cheminaud ALTERNATE 1 10-1 9 B G Warrior D J Haldar ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Jersey Pearl A Lezcano * EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/6/11 BOX, 5/6/11 BOX RACE #8 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ETBEST BET: #9 ENDPOINT PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 8-5 9 Endpoint G Corrales PLACE 7-2 10 What a Blast V Cheminaud SHOW 4-1 13 First Class Harlow J Gilligan WILD CARD 10-1 7 Cashmeup L Machado ALTERNATE 1 30-1 12 Caesars Ghost A Lezcano ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Dancers Pharoah J Morales * EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-13 BOX, 13-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 9/10/13 BOX, 7/10/13 BOX
Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:32 PM ETBEST BET: #1 AIDINGANDABETTING PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-1 1 Aidingandabetting S Camacho PLACE 7-2 7 Baker Block S Camacho Jr. SHOW 2-1 5 Compass Cay C E Rojas WILD CARD 4-1 4 Confident N Elite M Rowland ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Dun Right A A Gallardo ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Awkward Pause M Fuentes * EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX RACE #2 $19,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:02 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 7-5 3 Tiz Herself P Morales PLACE 8-1 1 Pretty Rachel J C Ferrer SHOW 5-2 4 Antigone S Camacho WILD CARD 12-1 5 Sneaky Cheeky S Camacho Jr. ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Expect to Be Ready S Marin ALTERNATE 2 15-1 8 Peacelovenkarma H R Diaz Jr. * EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:33 PM ETBEST BET: #7 ALYANAABI PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 7-2 7 Alyanaabi R Feliciano PLACE 20-1 10 Boca Guy J A Batista SHOW 9-2 4 Angels Magic A Quinonez WILD CARD 9-2 8 Simms J L Castanon ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Shipwreck J C Ferrer ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Tapintoyourbeer S Camacho * EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/7/10 BOX, 4/8/10 BOX RACE #4 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 1-1 8 My Brother Mike S Marin PLACE 5-1 2 My Big Drama M Meneses SHOW 6-1 3 El Mic Tiesun L Sosa WILD CARD 15-1 5 Mister Fernando A Quinonez ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Edmund Fitzgerald S Diaz ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Its Me Again L Sanchez * EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX RACE #5 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:33 PM ETBEST BET: #11 RISK VS REWARD PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 4-1 11 Risk Vs Reward S Camacho PLACE 5-1 5 Summer Palace P Morales SHOW 9-2 1 Silent Sonata S Camacho WILD CARD 8-1 4 Tap Em C E Rojas ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Beach Holiday R D Allen Jr. ALTERNATE 2 12-1 9 Sociallongdistance J L Alonso * EXACTA: 11-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/5/11 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX RACE #6 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 7 Bazoo A A Gallardo PLACE 8-1 9 Preferred Outcome J L Castanon SHOW 4-1 5 Rookie Salsa M Jimenez WILD CARD 10-1 4 Hot and Heavy C E Rojas ALTERNATE 1 12-1 8 Kevin Witte J C Ferrer ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Paladio H R Diaz Jr. * EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX * TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX RACE #7 $22,000 STARTER HANDICAP
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:33 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 GOWELL STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 10-1 8 On the Couch S Camacho PLACE 2-1 2 Smithwicks Spice A A Gallardo SHOW 5-1 3 Fatimas Blessing A Suarez WILD CARD 4-1 1 Hard Attack P Morales ALTERNATE 1 10-1 10 Dream Liner C E Rojas ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 Prairie D Centeno * EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX COMMENTS: SASSY AND BOLD won her first race on TP all weather track with her best effort in three career starts. WHATCHAMACALL win her last two which includes the top last race speed figure. LILIESFORMILLIE is another that might prefer synthetic as she improved tremendously in her first go around at Turfway. SECRET STATEMENT ships in from Churchill Downs and has some sterling works getting ready. RACE #8 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 6-1 9 Rasmalai A Flores PLACE 5-1 3 Moanas Power A S Arroyo SHOW 8-1 10 Dannyhill M Meneses WILD CARD 3-1 8 Lil Miss Camille S Camacho ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Summer of Mischief D Centeno ALTERNATE 2 7-2 4 Band Sweetheart H Villa-Gomez * EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX * TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX RACE #9 $22,000 STARTER HANDICAP
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 15-1 8 Lenten Rose J C Ferrer PLACE 7-2 5 Slime Queen P Morales SHOW 3-1 6 Pugilist A A Gallardo WILD CARD 5-1 2 Katies a Lady J A Batista ALTERNATE 1 15-1 12 Make No Mistake S Camacho ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Inannas Quest D Centeno * EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX * TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Aqueduct Tip Sheet - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:20 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 9 Factually Correct J Lezcano PLACE 5-1 6 Dr. Kraft J A Davis SHOW 6-1 2 Four Eyes E Cancel WILD CARD 8-1 7 Makers Candy K Carmouche ALTERNATE 1 7-2 3 Tunnel Vision D Davis ALTERNATE 2 9-2 8 Kid Billy J A Vargas Jr. * EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ETBEST BET: #2 EMINENCY PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 2 Eminency M Franco PLACE 4-1 6 Nicholas James K Carmouche SHOW 20-1 5 Sight Unseen H K Harkie WILD CARD 9-2 7 Ginnsu Warrior D Davis ALTERNATE 1 7-2 8 Mattys Marauder J A Vargas Jr. ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Hesgottashortfuse G Huayas * EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX RACE #3 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ETBEST BET: #1 ROSSA VELOCE PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 1 Rossa Veloce M Franco PLACE 12-1 6 Violent Vixen D Davis SHOW 6-1 4 Snicket L A Rodriguez Castro WILD CARD 5-1 5 Shesalittle Edgy E Cancel ALTERNATE 1 4-1 3 Patty H J Lezcano ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Royal Meghan G Huayas * EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX RACE #4 $50,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:46 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 9-5 1 Mommasgottarun K Carmouche PLACE 5-1 3 Alarm Clock H K Harkie SHOW 6-1 9 Laughter M Franco WILD CARD 12-1 5 Serenade Soldier J A Davis ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Diamond Collector J Lezcano ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Divine Wine G Huayas * EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX RACE #5 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:14 PM ETBEST BET: #3 JET SPEED PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 3-1 3 Jet Speed J Lezcano PLACE 6-1 1 Braciole J A Gomez SHOW 4-1 8 Amedeus Music D Davis WILD CARD 9-2 9 Balis Shade M Franco ALTERNATE 1 15-1 4 Maxim Moment G Huayas ALTERNATE 2 5-1 2 Mister Candy Ride K Carmouche * EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX * TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX RACE #6 $75,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:42 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 3 Carbon K Carmouche PLACE 9-2 2 Kant Hurry Love M Franco SHOW 6-1 8 Royal Currency D Davis WILD CARD 10-1 7 Big Bean Christine J A Vargas Jr. ALTERNATE 1 7-2 1 Fancy Feline J Lezcano ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Bettys Smile J A Davis * EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX RACE #7 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 7 Curlins Wisdom J Lezcano PLACE 3-1 5 Winit K Carmouche SHOW 9-2 2 I Am the Law J A Gomez WILD CARD 5-1 6 King of Dreams C Olivero ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 No Burn D Davis ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Bourbon Calling M Franco * EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX * TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 QUEENS COUNTY STAKES PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 5-2 5 Law Professor M Franco PLACE 8-1 4 Bourbonic K Carmouche SHOW 5-1 10 Unbridled Bomber D Davis WILD CARD 30-1 1 Naval Aviator J Laprida ALTERNATE 1 5-1 2 Ridin With Biden F Pennington ALTERNATE 2 20-1 3 Southern District L A Batista * EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX * TRIFECTA: 4/5/10 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX COMMENTS: LAW PROFESSOR drops in class after running in the Breeders Cup and has been training well for this spot. BOURBONIC has three wins in six races at Aqueduct including the Wood Memorial. UNBRIDLED BOMBER won two in a row with ease and has a bullet work on December 18. NAVAL AVIATOR ran better fractions in his last despite going a little longer. RACE #9 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:08 PM ETPICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY WIN 7-2 11 Rough Sea J Lezcano PLACE 5-1 8 Optic Way M Franco SHOW 3-1 6 Musical Heart K Carmouche WILD CARD 15-1 2B Uno L A Rodriguez Castro ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Dust Devil M Olver ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1 Runabout D Davis * EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX * TRIFECTA: 6/8/11 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 31, 2022
Dec. 30, 2022
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday December 31 | Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern
Harlan’s Holiday Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $150,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth | Three Years Olds and Upward
Top contenders:
O’ Connor (1) won nine of 18 races in his native Chile before importing to the U.S. to run here at Gulfstream and at this mile and one-sixteenth trip last October. Even after six months off he picked up where he left off, in a second level allowance race when rallying from fifth of seven early to win powerfully by six lengths. This Grade 3 stakes is a couple of steps up but since he earned a field high 105 Equibase Figure and winning so easily, he’s the one to beat. That being said he opens as the 8 to 5 favorite and a win bet may not be the best approach to making a profit from this pretty logical horse, not to mention there are two others who have slight upset potential.
Those two are Clapton (8) and South Bend (5). Clapton (8) has had a good campaign in 2022, with a 3-2-2 record in 10 races, and all four of his career wins (in 16 starts) have come on the Gulfstream Park main track. Most importantly, he’s three compared to five for O’ Connor so Clapton potentially has improving to do while O’ Connor may have run the fastest he’s capable of. That may mean something as Clapton earned 102 Equibase Figures in two of his last three races. Getting RED HOT Tyler Gaffalione for the first time, who is two for six when riding for trainer Alvarado the past two years, Clapton has one more significant factor in his favor and that is his most recent workout as SPECTACULAR as he blazed four furlongs over the track on 12/24 in 48 flat, which was the best of ONE HUNDRED and FIFTY-EIGHT workouts at the distance on the day. He opens at 8 to 1 odds.
South Bend (5) opens at 6 to 1 and would be playable to win at those odds. He’s winless in eight races this year BUT missed by a nose and a head in a stakes quality allowance race at Churchill Downs when last seen in November, with a 100 figure, and he finished second in THIS RACE in 2021 at six to one odds after shipping in from an identical prep race in Kentucky. Rosario rides and the similarity to last year is very hard to ignore.
Win bets:
As for win bets, I would bet Clapton (8) or South Bend (5) to win at four to one or higher.
O’ Connor (1) isn’t nearly as good of a win bet as either Clapton (8) or South Bend (5) so we’ll use exactas to profit if he wins.
Exactas:
O’ Connor (1) over South Bend (5), Clapton (8)
Box O’ Connor (1), South Bend (5), Clapton (8)
Trifectas: (for these bets we’ll add Pioneer of Medina (2) and Skippylongstocking (7).
O’ Connor (1) over Pioneer of Medina (2), South Bend (5), Skippylongstocking (7), Clapton (8) over Pioneer of Medina (2), South Bend (5), Skippylongstocking (7), Clapton (8)
Gulfstream Hotlist - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (2) Shesterkin debuts for Pletcher and seems ready for a solid effort. (6) Kentucky Joker has some experience and that could pay off in this field. (8) Centrist Road is another Pletcher firster who merits attention. (5) Case is also training sharply for his debut. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8. Doubles: 2-5-6-8 with 3-4-5.
3rd race – (4) Frank’s Rockette disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup but can bounce back here. (3) Restofthestory was a good second last time and can be a main contender here. (5) Edie Meeny Miny Mo has sharp early speed and might hang on until the finish. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5.
5th race – (7) Expect More (B) had a bad start in his debut but still managed to finish third. Can work out a smooth trip with a clean start here. (2) Baby Billy has been no worse than third in his three career starts and should be the main rival. (4) Dream Knight was second last time and adds blinkers here. (8) Jungfrau seems capable of an improved effort. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-7-8.
7th race – (1) Scotish Star comes off two good efforts after a lengthy layoff and seems ready to handle stakes company. (6) Secret Time might improve on a stretchout. (10) Lady Rockstar is working nicely for her first start since July. (3) Bay Storm could be hard to catch in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-10.
9th race – (4) Shadow Sphinx was second in his last two starts and seems overdue for a win. (12) Colonel Liam holds a big class edge but may need a race. (7) City Man rarely turns in a bad effort and belongs in the exotics. (1) Street Ready should benefit from a ground-saving trip from the rail. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-7-12.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment (7) Expect More B, 11/5 5 GP Was third despite a bad start
Aqueduct Hotlist - December 31
Dec. 30, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3rd race [OC 62K/N2X, 6
Rocket Picks ��: Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park for December 31, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman
Let’s get another big Saturday of racing kicked off today! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for opening day at Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!
Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:
Gulfstream Park December 31, 2022
Race 8: Maiden Optional Claiming
Out of all the stakes races on the card, this is the one that looks the most wide-open on paper. We went four deep in this spot hoping to get through; however, if you can deeper this would be the spot to do it. A case can be made for nearly every horse in the race.
Race 9: Starter Optional Claiming
freestar
Will #12 Colonel Liam be ready to fire once again off of the layoff? If so, this race runs through him, but we are not fully trusting him in this spot. #7 City Man and #1 Street Ready are in great form, which gives them an advantage over the heavy favorite. We will use those three and hope to make it through to the next race.
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming
We are four deep once again in this spot. This spot is not quite as wide-open as a few of the others, but there are four logical contenders to use in this spot. The Saffie Joseph, Jr. duo looks tough, but #4 Simplification runs very well over this track. Also, #8 Clapton can sneak up and win this one at a price.
Race 11: Claiming
We will round out the card using only two horses in this spot. #11 Marketsegmentation seems like the logical candidate to win, but this far outside post is going to be a bit tricky. #5 Texas Shuffle has drawn a better post position, while the horse looks to be ready to run a big race for solid connections.
THE TICKET
$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 3,4,7,12 / 1,7,12 / 1,4,7,8 / 5,11 – $48
Celebrate New Year's Eve with New Zealand racing: Spot Plays for holiday card
Alastair Bull
As was the case last week, the biggest day of flat racing internationally this weekend is in New Zealand (New Year’s Day locally but still New Year’s Eve stateside). Six graded stakes races are on the card, along with the important Dunstan Feeds Final for improving stayers.
Usually held at Ellerslie in Auckland, the renovation on that course means that this year it’s being hosted at Te Rapa racecourse in Hamilton. Potentially this could change up the results – Te Rapa is anti-clockwise, whereas Ellerslie is clockwise, for starters – but class should come through regardless.
Here’s a look at potential spot plays for the features, held on Saturday night ET.
Race 2, 7:16 p.m. ET: Eclipse S. (G2), 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), 2-year-olds
Early black type juvenile races in New Zealand are frequently dominated by Te Akau Racing, and that looks likely to be the case here, with three of the runners coming from Te Akau’s trainer Mark Walker. The one to beat among them is probably #1 Trobriand, who is unbeaten in two starts. He had quite a battle to win last time over #8 Shoes, but he was giving away weight all around and is well in at set weights here.
However, he has one particularly interesting opponent to beat. #7 Ulanova scored well at Te Rapa Oct. 22 despite being taken on early, and won a trial easily Dec. 12. Her trainer Stephen Marsh knows how to prepare a top two-year-old, and she looks a strong prospect here.
#2 Balance of Power, third on debut to Ulanova and second in stakes company in the meantime, and #3 To Catch A Thief, fourth to Trobriand last start, are good options for exotics.
$10 win/$30 show: #7 Ulanova
$2 trifecta: 1, 7 with 1, 7 with 2, 3, 8
Race 3, 7:49 p.m. ET: Auckland Guineas (G2), 1,600 meters (about one mile), 3-year-olds
The markets suggest this is primarily a duel between #2 Waitak, winner of the Eagle Memorial (Listed) at his last start, and the filly #10 Prowess, third against the boys in the New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1).
Fillies often find things tough against the colts and geldings in other parts of the world, but New Zealand is one place where that is often reversed, partially because many of the best colts bred in New Zealand end up in Hong Kong, where few fillies race, or Australia. It’s arguable that Prowess is the second-best filly of her age in New Zealand behind Legarto, and she should be very competitive here.
Most of the others need to improve to win, though one that could win without surprising too much is #1 Dynastic. He hasn’t been easy to follow since winning the Karaka Million last year, but he seems best on firmer footing, which he will get here.
The two principals from a Te Rapa maiden on Dec. 17, #4 Keenasabean and #9 Bitcoin, are worth considering for exotics.
$10 win/$30 show: #10 Prowess
$2 trifecta: 2, 10 with 2, 10 with 1, 4, 9
Race 4, 8:22 p.m. ET: Dunstan Feeds Final, 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles), 3-year-olds and up
As always this has drawn a very good field, and any number of horses can win. The one to watch most closely may be #3 Aquacade, who gave up a position in the Queen Elizabeth (G3) later on the card to focus on this event. She is in very good form and has the advantage of the services of jockey Warren Kennedy, the former South African who has been outstanding since his arrival in New Zealand three months ago.
#4 Contemplation tackles the race after having been kept away from the races through December. He was in fantastic form in November, and will probably enjoy the firm track.
Well backed in recent days has been #11 Canheroc, who had no luck at Te Rapa Dec. 17. If he can get a clear run he is worth following. Other solid prospects include #2 Margaret Jean, #6 Ess Vee Are, #7 Hula Beat, and #12 Nest Egg.
$10 win/$30 show: #3 Aquacade
$1 trifecta: 3, 4 with 3, 4, 11 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11, 12
Race 5, 8:55 p.m. ET: Royal S. (G2), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), 3-year-old fillies
With the leading filly Legarto bypassing this race after winning the Eight Carat Classic (G2) last week, this provides a good opportunity for the runner-up in that race, #3 Skew Wiff, to get some compensation. Her breeding suggests she’ll like the extra two furlongs here.
She won’t have it all her own way, with some good fillies lining up. Among them is #1 Polygon, winner of the Eulogy (G3) on this track Dec. 17. There could be some doubts about her ability to get 1 1/4 miles, but she looks a classy and professional filly.
Outside these two there are plenty of options. #4 Imarichgirl, #5 Family Ties, #8 Sakura Girl, #7 Complicate, and #6 Sedaka all return from the Eulogy; a number will probably appreciate the likely firmer footing this time, but otherwise Polygon may still have their measure. If there’s one most likely to improve from that race, it’s possibly Family Ties.
It’s an even field, but I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to Polygon.
$10 win/$30 show: #1 Polygon
$1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 3 with 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 7, 10:05 p.m. ET: Railway S. (G1), 1,200 meters, 3-year-olds and up
An outstanding field has been assembled again for this sprint, and there’s a good chance it could be third time lucky for #1 Levante. Raced by many of the same owners as NZ 1000 Guineas (G1) winner Legarto, she has been one of the standout sprinters in New Zealand for several years and wasn’t far away from the best in Australia in the Newmarket (G1) and Champions Sprint (G1) in the last 12 months.
However, she’s been downed twice in this race by horses from the powerful Te Akau Racing stable, and she has a worthy opponent from that stable again in the form of #3 Imperatriz. When she’s on her game she’s very good, as she showed winning the NZ Thoroughbred Breeders’ S. (G1) and Foxbridge Plate (G2) during 2022.
Running fresh and with a two-pound pull in the weights, Imperatriz has some advantage. However, Levante does run very well at Te Rapa, and I’m sticking with her to win.
The wild cards in the race are #5 Dragon Leap, who has been resurrected this season as a sprinter, and former Aussie galloper #9 Letzbeglam. The latter was an easy winner of the Counties Bowl (G3) last start and gets seven pounds from Levante; whether that’s enough to beat her is another matter, but it gives her a great chance of running in the first three. #8 Bonny Lass shouldn’t be left out of exotics either.
$20 win: #1 Levante
$1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 3, 9 with 1, 3, 5, 8, 9
Race 8, 10:40 p.m. ET: Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G3), 2,400 meters, 3-year-olds and up
The major form race is clearly the Waikato Cup (G3) on this track Dec. 10, won decisively by #3 Viktor Vegas from #7 Dionysus and #5 Aromatic. Viktor Vegas is now a nine-year-old but he’s in the form of his life, having three starts back finished fourth at weight-for-age behind subsequent Zabeel Classic (G1) winner Defibrillate. Historically he has reveled in soft conditions like he had in the Waikato Cup, and the only doubt is how he will handle the likelihood of firmer ground here, but given his outstanding form he can’t be left out.
Dionysus and Aromatic, on the other hand, both have top form on good tracks and they will also get weight relief from Viktor Vegas this time. Both horses are capable of winning here.
One that could well improve from the Waikato Cup is #4 Self Obsession. She finished seventh that day, but the multiple Group 2 winner had a slower than normal recovery, and if she’s back to her best she can win this, especially on a better track.
My selection, however, is #1 Platinum Invador, who won this race in 2020 and was runner-up in 2021. He seems to have recovered well from a tendon injury which kept him away from the track last season, and his fourth placing last start in the Manawatu Cup (G3) can partially be forgiven for being on an unsuitable heavy track. On good footing he can win here.
$10 win/$30 show: #1 Platinum Invador
$1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 3, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Race 9, 11:13 p.m. ET: Rich Hill Mile (G2), 1,600 meters, 3-year-olds and up
The market for this competitive handicap is headed at 4-1 by the much-improved #8 Encierro. He has won three of his last four starts, culminating with an open handicap Dec. 17, and has a great record at Te Rapa. He should go a bold race.
Back from Australia this season is #2 Puntura, who rejoins his former trainer Robbie Patterson. He produced a fabulous second-up run to beat all but Faithful Feat in the J Swap Sprint (G3) here Dec. 10, and has a very good record at a mile. He should improve further.
However, I’m going to look for some serious value here with #5 Express Princess. She’s been running at weight-for-age against the best fillies and mares recently, finishing second in the Auckland Breeders’ S. (G2) behind Darci La Bella and then fourth to Sinarahma in the Cal Isuzu (G2) Dec. 10. Back in handicap conditions, she should find the going easier and is worth a shot.
$10 win/$20 show: #5 Express Princess
Gulfstream Park Stakes Spot Plays for Dec. 31
John Mucciolo
A six-pack of black-type events, five of the graded variety, will highlight a huge Saturday card at Gulfstream Park.
Race 3 – Sugar Swirl S. (G3)
A total of six fillies and mares will dash six panels in the first stakes event of the afternoon. #1 Joyful Cadence (5-1) is especially consistent and due for a breakthrough at the graded level for conditioner John Ortiz. Runhappy four-year-old has form, speed, and the rail, all of which will play to her strengths while making her local debut. Tyler Gaffalione inherits the mount.
Race 6 – Rampart S.
An octet of fillies and mares will travel one mile on the main strip in the $125,000 affair. Todd Pletcher’s #4 Colorful Mischief (5-2) has run into a pair of superb winners in her past two and fits well in this spot. Into Mischief three-year-old has the gate presence to be in range early on, and I believe that the one-turn mile will be ideal for the well-bred filly, too. Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the reins adds to the appeal.
Race 7 – Suwannee River S. (G3)
A well-matched field of 10 will go one mile on the lawn in what appears to be an attractive betting endeavor. #4 Keeper of Time (12-1) was a closing fourth in this contest last campaign and will go better in her second try in the event. Mehmas four-year-old registered a pair of nice efforts in turf sprint dashes most recently from off the pace, and the move to eight panels seems ideal for the Brendan Walsh pupil. I expect the four-year-old to make one run late behind a contested early pace beneath Gaffalione.
Race 8 – Mr. Prospector S. (G3)
The seven-furlong test attracted a dozen in what looks like another competitive betting race. #3 Sibelius (3-1) has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers in May and gets top billing in a deep sprint. Not This Time gelding comes off a game runner-up try in the Bet On Sunshine S. at Churchill Downs and will be dangerous with anything close to that performance. Jeremiah O’Dwyer trainee will be forwardly placed throughout with Junior Alvarado in the stirrups.
Race 10 – Harlan’s Holiday S. (G3)
In a field lacking early speed, I think that #7 Skippylongstocking (4-1) will get a dream trip forcing the tempo while in the clear from the opening bell. One of two major players in the cast for conditioner Saffie Joseph, the sophomore son of Exaggerator comes in fresh after an ambitious spring and fall campaign, and I expect a top showing from the colt with Irad Ortiz accepting the assignment.
Fair Grounds Stakes Spot Plays for Dec. 31
John Mucciolo
A total of four black-type events will lead the way at Fair Grounds on Saturday.
Race 2 – Louisiana Futurity (fillies)
The six-furlong heat for two-year-old fillies attracted seven Cajun-breds. I see this as a two-horse race with Louisiana Champions Day Lassie S. runner-up #5 Norah G (4-5) and recent maiden winner #7 Hopeitsmyluckyday (9-2), with the edge going to the former. The other five contenders in the field look to be up against it, in my opinion.
Louisiana Futurity (fillies) Wagers
$25 exacta 5 with 7 ($25)
$10 exacta 7 with 5 ($10)
Race 5 – Woodchopper S.
Eight sophomores will travel one mile on the green in the $100,000 tilt. #5 Sutherland (6-1) has never run a bad race on the lawn while winning and placing in each of his five turf tests for conditioner Bret Calhoun. Twirling Candy gelding stretches out beyond a sprint distance for the initial time, but the Silverton Hill homebred gives the impression of a prospect who will handle eight panels, and I like his chances to make a major impact on the race. Go-to pilot Reylu Gutierrez will be in the stirrups.
Woodchopper Wager
$15 win and place #5 Sutherland ($30)
Race 8 – Pago Hop S.
Sophomore fillies will test the Fair Grounds lawn in the one-mile affair. #3 Dreamworker (5-1), one of three in the cast for conditioner Joe Sharp, might inherit the early lead in a field lacking a confirmed front runner. The capable daughter of Animal Kingdom has earned both of her lifetime tallies on the course, and with a clean break, she could enjoy a favorable voyage from the opening bell. Deshawn Parker will guide the value contender.
Pago Hop Wager
$20 win and show #3 Dreamworker ($40)
Race 9 – Louisiana Futurity
The juvenile boys will dash six furlongs on the dirt in the final stakes race of the afternoon. I thought that #2 Z Resurrection (3-1) was very impressive in breaking his maiden second time out for trainer James Hodges. Ocean Knight gelding put in a maintenance half-mile drill in advance of his stakes bow, and the chestnut could be the one to catch with a draw inside of the likely one to beat. Brianne Culp retains the mount atop the April foal.
Louisiana Futurity Wager
$30 win #2 Z Resurrection ($30)
The Jury: Bets and fades for Dec. 31
TwinSpires Staff
This week's TwinSpires Jury - James Scully and Kellie Reilly - convenes to discuss opinions for the New Year's Eve stakes action at Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park.
What is your best bet?
James Scully: #5 Anacapa (4-1) in the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita. The progressing three-year-old filly won’t face an imposing group in her stakes debut, and she graduated stylishly at the six-furlong distance in late July. A close second versus allowance foes two back, Anacapa crushed rivals wire-to-wire last time, easily generating a field-best last-out 96 Brisnet Speed rating, and the Carla Gaines trainee catches a field lacking true speed. I like Anacapa on the front end with Joe Bravo.
Kellie Reilly: We're Gaines/Bravo fans around here since I've talked myself into another of their runners at Santa Anita on Saturday, #7 Closing Remarks (8-1) in the Robert J. Frankel (G3). She is just too enticing at the price, given her back class. Although the Cal-bred has not raced since a troubled fourth in the Mar. 26 Santa Ana (G3), she has a history of firing fresh for a trainer who can get them ready off the bench. The key for me is that Closing Remarks kept rallying for close seconds to the top-class Going Global in 2021. There is no comparable rival here, and her typical finish, regardless of pace scenario, might well be enough to win.
Who is the horse to fade?
JS: #1 O’Connor (8-5) in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His U.S. debut was eye-catching, a six-length win over conditioned allowance foes at Gulfstream on Oct. 16, but the five-year-old didn’t break sharply that afternoon and must work out a trip from the rail Saturday in a field lacking pace. A Chilean import, O’Connor recorded his Group 1 win at 1 1/4 miles and has favored longer distances throughout his racing career. He faces better competition in the Harlan’s Holiday, and I will play against the off-the-pace runner at 1 1/16 miles.
KR: #1 Defining Purpose (7-5) looks like an awfully prohibitive price in the Year’s End S. at Oaklawn Park, where she does not tower over a field of promising juvenile fillies. The morning line reflects her Churchill Downs maiden romp, and wide-trip fifth to the smashing Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod (G2). Defining Purpose is logical, but not a slam dunk by Brisnet Speed rating metrics. Several others have talking points at more attractive odds, including D. Wayne Lukas’s Take Charge Briana (6-1) and Unifying (12-1) for Riley Mott, both among those getting first-time Lasix like Defining Purpose. Bluelightspecial (9-2), second to Pretty Mischievous two back, employs the 40% blinkers-off move for Cipriano Contreras, and Need Some Money (12-1) and Charlee Mae (20-1) are also worth a look from a Speed figure perspective.
What else is worth noting?
JS: I'll focus upon a pair of graded winners, Colonel Liam and Prevalence, on Saturday’s stakes-packed program at Gulfstream. Unraced since a ninth in March’s Dubai Turf (G1), Colonel Liam captured January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) in his last U.S. appearance, and the Todd Pletcher-trained gray will bring a 3-for-3 record over Gulfstream’s turf to the Ft. Lauderdale (G2). Colonel Liam looks like a huge presence in the U.S. turf ranks next season if he returns in good order and can stay healthy.
The Mr. Prospector (G3) looms as a key test for Prevalence, who appeared set for a good 2022 campaign when capturing the Commonwealth (G3) by open lengths last spring. However, the four-year-old colt weakened to last in the Churchill Downs (G1) next out and headed to the sidelines for nearly six months. Prevalence has flashed talent, registering triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings in his last two wins, but he’s been the type who seemingly needs everything to go his way or spits the bit. We’ll see if he can bounce back over his favorite track (3-for-4 at Gulfstream).
KR: The Joe Hernandez (G2) is a fascinating Saturday kickoff at Santa Anita, pitting specialist sprinters against milers on the cutback. As a card-carrying fan of #8 Hit the Road (6-1), I have an inkling that the Grade 1 veteran will put up a big effort in his long-awaited comeback. The Dan Blacker trainee was last seen finishing eighth behind Colonel Liam in the Pegasus Turf at Gulfstream, but he sports a 6-4-0-1 mark at Santa Anita. He compiled that record at a mile, so the downhill sprint scenario poses more of a question mark. Still, the addition of blinkers will keep him focused, he runs well fresh, and he gets Frankie Dettori, whose presence could well shorten the odds. There was not much between Hit the Road and Smooth Like Strait in 2021. With better luck, we will be seeing a lot more of Hit the Road in 2023. If the Hernandez experiment pans out, it would open up more options for the talented son of More Than Ready.
Noel’s Weekend Winners: New Year’s Eve Value Plays at Gulfstream
December 30th, 2022 by Noel Michaels
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
The Championship Meet portion of the Gulfstream Park meet has begun, and we are already in full swing in the best season of racing and wagering that Florida has to offer. The high quality of the Gulfstream schedule is on full display this Saturday as Gulfstream hosts an 11-race New Year’s Eve card that includes six stakes races. All of the races on the card offer big fields and lots of good betting opportunities. I have picked out two of the stakes on the card on which to focus this weekend’s plays. Best of luck, and happy new year!
weekend Television schedule
Friday, Dec. 29: 2:30-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV
Saturday, Dec. 30: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV
Sunday, Jan. 1: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $125,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes, post 3:41 p.m. ET
The Mr. Prospector is a Grade 3 sprint going seven furlongs that has drawn a full 12-horse field. The race is loaded, and you can make a case for most of the entrants, so any kind of exacta you can hit is going to pay off nicely. Many of the contenders are starting off new campaigns, or may find the distance to be a tad too long or too short for their optimal performance. The horse in the race in mid-season form that seems ideal at seven furlongs is #9 Dean Delivers, who should offer good value on the tote board despite two wins and two seconds in his recent races including a runner-up finish in a restricted stakes two races ago. Dean Delivers was second earlier this year in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes at this track and distance. He’s been in the exacta in eight of nine career starts at Gulfstream but will nevertheless offer value today. Looking around the rest of the field for bargains, #7 Prevalence has only one recent race to his credit, and it was mediocre at best, but the best efforts for Prevalence, including a win last spring in the seven-furlong Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland, point him out as a horse with a legit chance to win or hit the exacta. Finally, the obvious horse that’s difficult to leave off your tickets is #3 Sibelius, who owns a bunch of strong speed figures and was beaten only two lengths when fourth in the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland two starts back. Seven furlongs might be a stretch, but he should at least land in the exotics.
The Play: Bet #9 Dean Delivers (15-1) to win. This wide-open race also is worthy of a three-horse exacta box along with #3 Sibelius (3-1) and #7 Prevalence (9-2).
Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $150,000 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, post time 4:40 p.m. ET
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The Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday is a 1 1/16-mile dirt race that drew a field of eight, including some familiar veterans of the 2022 Triple Crown trail. It is one of those horses, #4 Simplification, that seems to have landed in an optimal spot to regain his best form, which would make him tough to beat. Simplification was at his best right here at Gulfstream Park starting at this same time a year ago when he won the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes and later went on to win the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. In my opinion he hasn’t been given a chance to recapture his best form in any of his three recent races, which included tough spots like the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He makes much more sense in this more modest Grade 3 spot back at the track where he has enjoyed his best success. Simplification lost to #7 Skippylongstocking in the West Virginia Derby when that horse was in mid-season form and Simplification was coming back from a layoff. The tables are turned today. The outside posts in these Gulfstream two-turn dirt routes are generally disadvantages, so instead of using Skippylongstocking in the exactas, instead try #1 O’Connor, who invaded from South America last time out and creamed a good allowance optional claiming field here at Gulfstream, beating a bunch that included next-out winner Octane and veteran Sole Volante. The last horse to beat O’Connor was a horse named Super Corinto, who has since been imported to the United States and recently won a Gulfstream allowance optional claiming race on Dec. 8 with a big speed figure as the odds-on favorite.
The Play: Bet an exacta box with #1 O’Connor (8-5) and #4 Simplification (5-1). If you also want to make a win bet, go with Simplification if he is near his 5-1 morning line.
2023 Kentucky Derby Prep Race – Smarty Jones Stakes
Published by Craig on December 29, 2022 | Leave a response
Overview: The Smarty Jones is the start of the Oaklawn Park road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This one-mile event leads to the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby. Traditionally Oaklawn has delivered big fields in the prep races, but the overall quality has been overtaken by several California and Gulfstream Park horses that have shipped in.
Analysis: Victory Formation is the likely favorite. Brad Cox won the Gun Runner Stakes Monday at the Fairgrounds, and Victory Formation is the dominant speed. Angel of Empire comes from off the pace and is by Classic Empire out of a To Honor and Serve Mare and could improve if the track comes up sloppy.
Communication Memo is sharp and dominated a maiden race on December 16th at Oaklawn Park. The race’s final quarter was fast, and Steve Asmussen has done well in the three-year-old stakes races at Oaklawn Park in recent years. Communication Memo is poised to run a big race on the quick turn-around.
Ten Days Later dominated classy horses at Keeneland and emerged with an 80 Brisnet speed figure in the maiden win. He has five career starts and may have a stamina edge in a race with some lightly raced horses. He was closing on a race track that favored front-runners in his most recent race. His 91 Brisnet speed figure in that race gives him a fighting chance to upset at a small price.
Denington is another with some dirtied-up form. He has been closing in quality races with five-lifetime races, all five at two turns. He cuts back to one mile after three straight one-mile and 1/16 races. He should be fit, and recent works indicate there is still holding form.
Angel of Empire is slower on the speed figures but has the right running style, both his wins were on the dirt, and the one loss was on the demanding Kentucky Downs turf course.
Betting: Victory Formation goes up in class and will face other speeds; he most likely will be an underlay in this spot. Communication Memo is sharp; if he is over 6/1, he might be worth using in daily doubles. My top selection is Ten Days Later, which has the one win and will be closing late into a potentially fast pace. Ten Days Later at 4/1 or higher is the price play in a very competitive race.
Scott Van Pelt’s WINNERS:
Pitt+8
Kansas State+6.5
Ohio State+6.5
Texans+4.5
Browns+2
Saints+6.5
Colts+5.5
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for Santa Anita - 12/31/22
December 31, 2022
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Whatmakessammyrun; 8-Hit the Road
Backups/savers: 1-Lane Way
Forecast: As this is penned, rain is expected throughout the day, and there is no certainty that this race will remain on grass. If there is a surface switch, we will pass the race. Contention runs deep in the Joe Hernandez S.-G3 over the Hillside Turf Course for older horses, many of which have been successful under these conditions in the past. You probably should go fairly deep to have confidence in surviving and advancing. We’ll identify our top three for smaller ticket players while leaning heavily on the horse-for-course theory. Whatmakessammyrun is a perfect three-for-three over this unique layout and with good racing luck and some help up front may be able to produce another winning late bid. Hit the Road has been a highly successful turf miler throughout his career and in fact has never sprinted, though his late kick should be every bit as effective in this shorter trip. He’s been away for 11 months and might just be using this race to get the rust off, bet he has a history of firing fresh, and his past class could carry him through. With Frankie aboard and at 6-1 on the morning line, he’s a must use. Lane Way, first or second in five of six starts over the Santa Anita turf course, has a similar late running style but may be compromised by his rail draw. He’s probably more likely to simply hit the board rather than win but should be included at least as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Impossible Task
Backups/savers: 7-Order and Law
Forecast: 2-Impossible Task went stale during the fall and was given a breather; he returns on a class drop to the $50,000 claiming level and should benefit significantly from the time off and the easier competition in this main track mile affair. The John Sadler-trained gelding is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and in a race with a projected moderate pace scenario he should be capable of returning to winning form. Order and Law is another that should greatly appreciate this softer assignment and represents the most dangerous of the closing contingent.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-England’s Rose; 10-Queen Goddess
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hopefully, this race will remain on grass. If it is switched to the main track due to rain, we will pass. England’s Rose is winless in four starts this year but hasn’t run badly and is due for some better luck in this year’s renewal of the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 over nine furlongs on grass. In the frame in her last three starts and a two-time winner over the local sod, the veteran daughter of English Channel will turn seven tomorrow and thus her racing days may be numbered, but her competitive spirit remains and if the race shape doesn’t do her in she could make some serious noise from the quarter pole home. Queen Goddess won the Santa Ana S.-G3 over this course and distance last spring and if ready off a seven month layoff certainly could win. She projects to be forwardly placed in a race that might offer moderate to slow early fractions. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Wegonahaveagoodtime; 4-American Grit
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this maiden $20,000 sprint for older horses. Wegonahaveagoodtime, claimed for $50,000 in late November, returns at the bottom for his new connections, hardly a sign of confidence, but if he’s reasonably healthy this sophomore gelding should be too quick for this modest group. The John Sadler barn hits at 17% with the first-off-the-claim angle, not great but decent enough, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s the logical top pick. American Grita first timer by American Pharoah that brought $425,000 as a yearling, finally makes it to the races a day short of his five-year-old season. He’s been training with Bob Baffert’s second string so there is no video available but if he can run at all he almost has to be competitive with this bunch. The works look good, but, then again, everything works fast at Los Alamitos.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Lasmuigh; 10-Sir Pistolero; 3-Valiancer
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for turf. If it is transferred to the main track due to rain, we’ll sit it out. Lasmuigh ran well in minor handicaps in Ireland last summer while still a maiden, hitting the board in his last pair while spotting weight to most of his rivals. His form, while not great, certainly should make him quite competitive in this moderate straight maiden turf sprint for juveniles. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding lands Flavian Prat and has done reasonably well in the morning to indicate he’s fit enough. Sir Pistolero, a first timer by Gun Runner, showed some ability in a recent five furlong gate work sans company in 1:00 and could come up a live item in an open fray. With Frankie taking the call, he has to be used. Valiancer shows the route to sprint angle we like and actually performed quite well in his only other sprint race, his debut, in which he closed well to just miss in a photo last May. Five consecutive attempts over a mile failed to produce the desired results but at this trip the son of Tapiture should be running on strongly late.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Houndstooth; 5-Bright Leaf
Backups/savers:
Forecast: There’s not much early speed signed on in this starter’s allowance extended sprint, so the improving Houndstooth, second in a similar affair here last fall, should have his chances enhanced by the projected soft early fractions. Solid on numbers, the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and offers a reasonable gamble at that price. Bright Leaf shows a prior win over the Santa Anita main track, fits on figures, and has hit the board in each of his last four starts. This seven furlong trip should complement his second flight, stalking style. We’re reasonably confident the winner will be one of these two, so both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Katerini; 5-Albayaader; 7-Real Fire
Backups/savers: None
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If it is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Katerini gets a break in the weights and projects to be prominent throughout, maybe even the controlling speed, in this six furlong sprint for older maiden $50,000 claimers. Runner-up under these conditions in his last two, the Mark Glatt-trained filly always has been vulnerable close home but in a race that should have soft early splits she may be able to stick it out. Albayaader shows up in a seller for the first time and seems certain to appreciate this softer task. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and will be doing her best work late. Real Fire is another showing the dangerous maiden-to-maiden claiming angle with numbers that are good enough to pose a serious threat, and a healthy recent work tab that catches the eye. With Flavian Prat riding her back for John Sadler, the Street Boss filly is a “must use” despite her one-paced, grinding style.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Samurai Charm; 5-Anacapa
Backups/savers: 7-Lady T
Forecast: Samurai Charm won a pair of hot sprint stakes at Zia Park during the fall in fast time with big speed figures. Can she do the same on the Big Circuit? The veteran daughter of First Samurai is winless in three starts over the Santa Anita main track, so there may be some doubt, but in this year’s renewal of the Las Flores S.-G3 that resembles a conditioned allowance sprint the daughter of First Samurai, with Flavian Prat taking the mount, appears strictly the one to beat based speed figures and current form. Anacapa isn’t quite as fast on numbers as our top pick, but she’s lightly raced and improving and could pose a threat with another forward move. She’s turning back from a series of two-turn events but has won sprinting in the past so the distance switch shouldn’t be a concern. Lady T., first or second in all five starts over the local main track, looks like the most dangerous of the closers and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Altruist; 1-Lovesick Blues; 3-Code Duello
Backups/savers: 4-Creative Peak
Forecast: Here’s another turf sprint that, depending upon the weather, is in jeopardy of being switched to dirt. We’ll pass if it does. Altruist won his debut over this course and distance at 31-1 a year ago October but then disappeared. He returns protected in this first level allowance affair following a series of quick drills that may have him ready to pick up where he left off. The Phil D’Amato barn has strong stats with comebackers (20%) so at 6-1 on the morning line he appears as good as any. Lovesick Blues, like our top pick, is a perfect one-for-one sprinting over the local lawn, and while his recent form is below his best the Steve Miyadi-trained son of Grazen appears capable of snapping back under conditions that favor him. From the rail under Juan Hernandez, the sophomore gelding projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance from there. Code Duello seems a bit better than his 10-1 morning line gives him credit for and offers a reasonable price chance in a wide open affair. He’s another with a previous win sprinting over the Sana Anita lawn and after hitting the board in his last two starts he should be a strong pace factor once again. Creative Peak, yet another with credentials to be a threat at a nice price (12-1 morning line), projects to settle in the second flight and have dead aim from the quarter pole home. He has numbers that fit with these res and goes for a high percentage trainer-jockey combo.
Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis
December 31, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
The Big M closes out 2022 with a 14-race card. The feature goes in Race 6, a Claiming Handicap Pace with a $19,000 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 also starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6
2-Ostro Hanover (3-1)-Yonkers invader has made only 11 starts this year and this will be the 5th race since coming off the bench. Faded in last but should be in the mix and this post draw can help. Will lean here over other shippers who haven't had a race over this surface.
5-Arrhythmic Surge (5-1)-Should fit well with this group. Has only 1 win in 16 Big M starts but that came in a lifetime mark of 151. Makes the 3rd start off the bench and could be sitting on a big try.
6-Ballerat Boomerang (9/2)-Engblom pupil has hit the board in 11 of 21 at M1 with 4 pictures and should battle with this crew. Mark Mac grabs lines on this Yonkers shipper and should be forwardly placed throughout.
Race 7
3-High Baller (3-1)-The Alexander barn keeps rolling and Brennan should have this 4-year-old racing near the top of stack. Does good work here and should be in the hunt at the wire.
4-Reinging Deo (6-1)-Will assume there will be some lively fractions and if so, chances for success go up. Stratton can work a stalking trip and be the best down the lane. Hasn't won at M1 (0-7) but this race could set-up nicely for another Alexander trainee.
Race 8
2-Shvaiko (5-1)-Stayed inside in the 1st start since 7-4 which was at this class and caught a shuffle. Did pace a quick mile (151.3) and finished with a 26.4 last quarter. Jimmy Pants takes the lines, and he knows this 5-year-old who has 3 wins in 11 Big M races.
5-Speedy Dominic A (3-1)-Dom is basically a 1-move type and at this class Joe B could work a successful trip. Should be able to get the top but holding a lead can be an issue.
Race 9
1-Ocean Colony (12-1)-Not loving the Yonkers shippers in this race so will look for some value and Zeron should keep this veteran in play. Can race close to the lead and use one brush down the lane to sweep by. Has hit the board in 29 of 63 at M1 with 10 wins.
5-Bobcat Bay (3-1)-Not loving the short price but the Smith barn has posted 45% winners in the last 30 days. Stratton has options, could look to come off a helmet but has the speed to leave for a good seat. Versatile 5-year-old looks like a player.
10-Dontpassme Hanover (8-1)-This is the 3rd race off the bench and it won't be easy from post 10. But there aren't any monsters in this field and does drop. Paced a 150.3 mile in its 1st start back with a 26.2 last panel. Needs a trip but will take a swing at what should be a nice price.
0.50 Early Pick 4
2,5,6/3,4/2,5/1,5,10
Total Bet=$18
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