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Thread: Tuesday 1/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Tuesday 1/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

    Mahoning Valley - Race #2
    Picks Notes
    #2 Flaxen She has more than six lengths to turn on the one drawn inside of her, but I think she gets a better race shape this time around and might be able to get past these late.
    #1 Starship Macys Her speed is dangerous, but she has given away ground in recent starts with similar, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her get run down late after taking a little heat early.
    #6 Incessant Tactical player should be able to find a decent spot in the early going while spying the speed, but she also has to turn tables on the rail runner in here.
    Race Summary Starship Macys has handled both of the other listed two in recent starts, but Flaxen might get a decent run from a bit off the pace if a couple of the other forward players bother the speed early on.

    Mahoning Valley - Race #6
    Picks Notes
    #3 Shakeurskinnylegs Speed hasn't shown that she can handle any adversity when challenged up top, but she might be quick enough to clear these into the turn and try to get brave.
    #6 Bode's Rose She's fast enough to prompt the top choice early if they choose, but I think she lands the run of the race while pressing and waiting for the right moment to go. Tough.
    #2 Runlikejackieo She's reliable enough from off the pace, and her recent sprint races suggest she can come running late for a piece of this. Think she's best limited underneath here.
    Race Summary Shakeurskinnylegs has some sharp pace, and she bounced back nicely off the stakes dud when getting back around one turn last out. Let's see if she can run these off their feet.

    Mahoning Valley - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #9 Professional He can bounce back while facing easier this time around, and he figures for a really good trip right up near the pace while stretching out again.
    #8 Debdurite He has been landing shares with similar in recent starts, but he's probably going to take a little bit of cash and might find one or two of these too good for him again.
    #3 Seminole Justice Tactical speed makes his local debut with a profile that suggests he should stack up nicely with this group. Little worried that he's going to be one-paced late.
    Race Summary Professional comes off a clunker with tougher, but he can find a great trip tracking the speed around two turns, and one of his better tries should handle these.

  3. #3
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    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

    Sunland Park - Race #1
    Picks Notes
    #2 IMATBTHTWHTSHESAID (8-1) Shook duel on turn, held safe the odds-on favorite to win at 26-1.
    #7 SMOKEN HOUDINI (4-1) Earned top speed figure of career with late rally to finish third.
    #1 CD POLDARC (3-1) Ran second as closers ruled two back, lacked kick in follow-up 6-1/2F sprint.
    Race Summary IMATBTHTWHTSHESAID sprung a wire-to-wire shocker in a six-horse sprint, but if he can duplicate that effort and get the added ground, a repeat could be in store at another good price. His dam was a $108k earner and three-time allowance winner at Sunland Park. Play a 1-2-7 exacta box.

    Sunland Park - Race #3
    Picks Notes
    #8 JACK’S HAIL MARY (3-1 Set faster pace than allowance on card, good post in speed-laden field.
    #1 BUNKER DOWN (8-1) Rallied after troubled start, gets ideal set-up, use in all gimmicks.
    #5 MARKED BY A STORM (2-1) Second in last pair for a claiming tag at Zia Park.
    Race Summary JACK’S HAIL MARY went down fighting in her debut, but she got caught by the favorite in a race that timed 1/5 slower than a same-day, 2X allowance race. Her speed will be tested but she can use it wisely from the outside post. Bet to win and place and play a 1,8 with 1,5,8 with ALL trifecta.

    Sunland Park - Race #9
    Picks Notes
    #3 BELLA Y SOFIA (8-1) Good try off freshening for new barn, second best behind odds-on favorite.
    #2 HEY FRIEND (12-1) Won after stretch-long duel in return at Zia Park, continued ok on gallop out.
    #6 MISS LORDOSIS (4-1) Closed with a rush at 870 yards, ran well at Sunland to start the year.
    Race Summary BELLA Y SOFIA finished 1-2-3 in her last five starts against New Mexico breds, the latest as runner-up against a 2-to-5 winner. She offers value again in her second start after 2-1/2 months away. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-6 exacta box.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

    PURCHASE
    Parx Racing - Race 2
    Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5) / Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
    Claiming $7,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 68 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 12:22
    (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GRIS TORMENTA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint a nd this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CHARLOTTE WEBLEY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VALUABLE BREIGH: Horse has a T rackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
    10
    GRIS TORMENTA
    4/1
    9/2
    13
    CHARLOTTE WEBLEY
    20/1
    5/1
    6
    VALUABLE BREIGH
    6/1
    6/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    6
    VALUABLE BREIGH
    6
    6/1
    Front-runner
    69
    67
    90.0
    53.0
    47.0
    5
    DIANE'S COMET
    5
    3/1
    Front-runner
    62
    58
    80.6
    43.6
    26.1
    8
    SHEWEARSTHEPANTS
    8
    12/1
    Front-runner
    69
    54
    66.2
    45.6
    32.6
    11
    GONE DREAMING
    11
    20/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    63
    52
    79.8
    44.0
    25.0
    10
    GRIS TORMENTA
    10
    4/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    77
    65
    50.4
    61.0
    55.5
    2
    IOVA
    2
    15/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    66
    51
    41.0
    53.6
    38.6
    3
    RISEN CHANGE
    3
    8/1
    Trailer
    67
    55
    41.8
    52.8
    35.3
    9
    MISS ALEX
    9
    10/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    69
    60
    49.6
    51.0
    34.5
    13
    CHARLOTTE WEBLEY
    13
    20/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    72
    77
    48.2
    54.6
    46.1
    12
    MUSAMAHA
    12
    8/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    79
    67
    31.3
    44.6
    36.6
    7
    I LOVE MAGEL
    7
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    72
    63
    49.6
    39.8
    28.3
    4
    BOLD'N NAUGHTY
    4
    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    58
    59
    45.2
    43.2
    24.7
    1
    GET HER READYEDDIE
    1
    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    64
    67
    42.4
    41.4
    19.9

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland ParkPURCHASE


    Sunland Park - Race 1
    1st Half $1 Daily Double/.50 Pick 4(Races 1-2-3-4)$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta .10 Superfecta
    Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 68 • Purse: $16,200 • Post: 12:25
    FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * C D POLDARC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SMOKEN HOUDINI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHIPPSTER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARK'S WARRIOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
    1
    C D POLDARC
    3/1
    5/1
    7
    SMOKEN HOUDINI
    4/1
    6/1
    5
    CHIPPSTER
    8/1
    7/1
    3
    LUCK IN MY EYES
    2/1
    9/1
    6
    MARK'S WARRIOR
    8/1
    10/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    3
    LUCK IN MY EYES
    3
    2/1
    Stalker
    67
    56
    49.0
    49.0
    41.5
    1
    C D POLDARC
    1
    3/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    69
    47
    60.1
    61.5
    56.0
    5
    CHIPPSTER
    5
    8/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    68
    57
    52.1
    55.9
    45.4
    8
    ABSTRACT KAT
    8
    12/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    52
    46
    31.7
    54.8
    47.3
    7
    SMOKEN HOUDINI
    7
    4/1
    Trailer
    68
    60
    58.8
    58.8
    51.3
    6
    MARK'S WARRIOR
    6
    8/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    67
    44
    62.7
    49.8
    40.8
    4
    FARMER FRED R F
    4
    12/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    57
    46
    43.6
    43.6
    32.6
    2
    IMATBTHTWHTSHESAID
    2
    8/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    64
    53
    40.2
    40.2
    27.7

  6. #6
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 8 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12800 Class Rating: 85

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 3. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 8 DEBDURITE 5/2
    # 3 SEMINOLE JUSTICE 7/2
    # 5 ARTEMUS EAGLE 10/1

    DEBDURITE is the best wager in this race. He has earned strong figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. Overall the Speed Figures of this animal look strong in this contest. The Equibase speed fig of 86 from his last affair looks respectable in here. SEMINOLE JUSTICE - Will likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. He has been racing soundly recently while recording solid Speed Figures. ARTEMUS EAGLE - Has been running admirably lately and will probably be on the front end early on. A solid 96 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field.

  7. #7
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 12:59pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,400 Class Rating: 68

    Rating:

    #2 YANKEE GO HOME (ML=7/2)


    YANKEE GO HOME - Pierce has this gelding placed in the ideal event.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CENTAURUS (ML=3/1), #5 AMADMADWORLD (ML=4/1), #6 IMPASSIONED CLAIM (ML=9/2),

    CENTAURUS - 3/1 is not priced right for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance affair of late. This steed ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose today running that figure. AMADMADWORLD - This equine doesn't have a winning character. Almost always finishes close, but no cigar. The speed fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender. IMPASSIONED CLAIM - Doesn't seem to be worth 9/2 today. Pass on him this time.


    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #2 YANKEE GO HOME on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
    EXACTA WAGERS: 2 with [3,6]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass

  8. #8
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 11:55am - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 64

    Rating:

    #6 CUMULUS (ML=8/1)
    #1 DESTIN'S MISSION (ML=4/1)


    CUMULUS - It looks like the race should set up for a stretch runner. This colt's running style fits the bill nicely. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +23. This jockey/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. DESTIN'S MISSION - Trainer Servis moves this thoroughbred to a lower class level to face a lower level today. Look for a strong performance with this class drop. Sub-par performance in the last race at Aqueduct was due to the off-going (he ran sixth). Should do better in this field on a non-sloppy track.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HOME SCHOOL (ML=3/1), #11 RYAN'S FLEET (ML=5/1), #3 DESANTIS (ML=6/1),

    HOME SCHOOL - Not easy to support any entrant in a short distance clash if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. RYAN'S FLEET - No picnic to support any runner in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. DESANTIS - This horse hasn't been close to the winner at the wire recently.


    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #6 CUMULUS is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,6]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass

  9. #9
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26900 Class Rating: 106

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 3, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 3, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, STATE BRED , OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 5 TARTINI 3/1
    # 1 ZESTFUL 7/2
    # 2 AX MAN 4/1

    TARTINI is the most respectable bet in this race. Must be given consideration in this race if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Fig earned in the last outing. Always tough to beat Hernandez and Hernandez working together, winning 38 percent of their races. Looks like a solid player for the exotics. ZESTFUL - Vaunts solid Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of animals. Negron has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 21 percent rate. AX MAN - Has been running soundly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding.

  10. #10
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    Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

    Free Winners for Tuesday, January 3rd 2023 from THE LEGEND!
    FREE HORSE PICKS
    MAHONING VALLEY
    RACE #7
    TIME: 3:33 PM EST
    PICK: BET #1 Rose Ring 8/5 odds to win @ Bovada

  11. #11
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    1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Celtics -9
    2. Gameday Network NBA – Kings +3
    3. Sports Action 365 NBA – Wizards +8.5
    4. Vegas Line Crushers NBA – Celtics under 233.5
    5. VegasSI.com NBA – Kings under 242.5
    6. Sam Casey CBB – Northern Illinois +15
    7. Henry Brown Sports CBB – Marquette -2.5
    8. Winning Big Sports CBB – Miami Ohio +2.5
    9. Lou Panelli CBB – Michigan St -7
    10. Platinum Info Club CBB – Kent St over 136
    11. William E. Stockton CBB – Boise St over 129
    12. Vincent Pioli CBB – Mississippi +12
    13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall CBB – Fresno St +4.5
    14. SCORE CBB – Minnesota over 124
    15. Tony Campone CBB – Pittsburgh +6
    16. Chicago Sports Group NBA – Wizards +8.5
    17. Hollywood Sportsline NBA – Celtics -9
    18. VIP Action NBA – Kings +3
    19. South Beach Sports NBA – Celtics under 233.5
    20. LV Sports Commission CBB – Vanderbilt -10
    21. NY Players Club CBB – Northern Illinois +15
    22. Fred Callahan CBB – Marquette under 158
    23. LV Private CEO Club CBB – Ohio -1
    24. Michigan Sports CBB – Syracuse -9
    25. National Consensus Report CBB – LSU +10

  12. #12
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    Timothy Black

    Jan 03 '23, 8:00 PM in 33m
    NCAA-B | LSU vs Kentucky

    Play on: [B]LSU +9

  13. #13
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    Bobby Conn

    Jan 03 '23, 8:00 PM in 33m
    NCAA-B | LSU vs Kentucky

    Play on: LSU +10 -110 at Caesars

    1* Free Play on LSU +10 -110

  14. #14
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    Dave Price

    Jan 03 '23, 8:00 PM in 33m
    NCAA-B | LSU vs Kentucky

    Play on: [B]LSU +10

  15. #15
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    Steve Janus

    Jan 03 '23, 8:00 PM in 33m
    NCAA-B | LSU vs Kentucky

    Play on: LSU +10 -110 at William Hill

    1* Free Sharp Play on LSU +10 -110

  16. #16
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    AAA Sports

    Jan 03 '23, 8:07 PM in 40m
    NHL | Flames vs Jets

    Play on: Jets +115 at circa

    1* FREE PLAY Winnipeg.
    These teams are evenly matched, so I'm a little unsure why Calgary is favored as of writing this analysis. Calgary is 18-13-4-3, while Winnipeg is 23-13-1-0. The Flames are 7-6-3-2 on the road, while the Jets are 13-6-0-0 at home. Calgary is off a 3-2 home win over Vancouver, but it enjoys three whole nights off after this one. It's a bit of a "trap" here for the visiting side. The Jets though play with the added incentive of "revnege" after falling 3-2 to Calgary in mid-November. In my opinion, there's good value on the revenge-minded home side; consider the Jets on Tuesday!
    AAA Sports

  17. #17
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    Black Widow

    Jan 03 '23, 8:07 PM in 40m
    NHL | Flames vs Jets

    Play on: UNDER 6 -110

    1* Free Wiseguy Play on Flames/Jets under 6 -110

  18. #18
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    Sean Murphy

    Jan 03 '23, 8:07 PM in 40m
    NHL | Canadiens vs Predators

    Play on: UNDER 6 +110

    Tuesday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.
    Both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. In the case of the Canadiens, they've allowed a ridiculous 16 goals over their last two games. Here, they catch a Predators squad that averages only 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season and one that is perhaps in line for some offensive regression after scoring 10 goals over its last two contests. Montreal has been consistently bad offensively, scoring two goals or less in five straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Note that the Habs average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The 'under' is 17-3 in the Habs last 20 road games after losing their previous contest by five or more goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average of just 4.7 total goals scored in that spot. The Preds have seen the 'under' go a perfect 6-0 after their previous game totalled eight goals or more this season, leading to an average total of only 3.9 goals in that situation. Take the under.

  19. #19
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    Jeff Alexander

    Jan 03 '23, 8:10 PM in 43m
    NBA | Celtics vs Thunder

    Play on: [B]Celtics -8

  20. #20
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    Ricky Tran

    Jan 03 '23, 8:10 PM in 43m
    NBA | Wizards vs Bucks

    Play on: [B]Bucks -7

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