Saturday 1/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Golden Gate - Race #5

Picks	Notes
#7 SHANGHAI MIST (3-1)	Made last-to-first move and remains eligible for the same race.
#1 TROPICANA GIRL (9-5)	Led at stretch call in 6 of last 8 starts, re-tries distance off Wong re-claim.
#2 CAN’THELPFALLIN (6-1)	Beaten fave against better, good fit at this level last spring.
Race Summary	SHANGHAI MIST changed tactics, rallied 5-wide into a slow pace and won going away at this distance. She fits the race conditions well and is taken to repeat. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #7

Picks	Notes
#8 TELOS (9-2)	Met good ones at Del Mar, all-or-nothing as first-time gelding.
#1 BLUEGRASS RYDER (6-1)	Tries to carry-over decent turf form to the all-weather track.
#6 DE LA LUNA (8-5)	Ran to heavy backing when dropped in for a tag, couldn’t reach pace controller.
Race Summary	TELOS runs first time as a gelding after he wilted under demanding MSW fractions two starts back at Del Mar, then was outrun against a pair of promising Bob Baffert-trained runners. Reincarnate won the G-III Sham Stakes and Mr. Fisk won in MSW company in his next start. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

Golden Gate - Race #9

Picks	Notes
#3 STANDFORGRIT (8-1)	Improved try with Lasix, worth a price stab in pace-less race.
#2 GET MY POINT (5-2)	Rallied for minor awards in last pair, will be underlay.
#10 WHEREDIDITGO (10-1)	Debuts for O’Neill off long series of works; dam was unraced.
Race Summary	STANDFORGRIT chased the runner-up through solid fractions, came under a hard drive on the turn but remained a presence until mid-stretch. She can use her speed well in this spot after an improved try with Lasix. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 8	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 8 &9
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 108 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 3:47P
INTERBOROUGH S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NON-LASIX RACE PURSUANT TO 4043.2 (7)(E)(5) LASIX NOT PERMITTED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATIONS; $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION PAYMENT OF $500 IN ADDITION TO THE ENTRY AND STARTING FEES CAN BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH AND 3% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONGST THE REMAINING FINISHERS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADED SWEEPSTAKE IN 2022-23 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A SWEEPSTAKE SINCE MAY 1, 2022 ALLOWED 4 LBS.; OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, JANUARY 7, 2023 WITH 16 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. BETSY BLUE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BETSY BLUE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PIECE OF MY HE ART: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EASY TO BLESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	BETSY BLUE	3/5	3/1
3	PIECE OF MY HEART	4/1	5/1
6	EASY TO BLESS	20/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MISS T TOO	2	5/1	Front-runner	97	89	79.5	87.2	78.2
1	SELF ISOLATION	1	6/1	Front-runner	99	94	77.3	76.3	68.8
4	FLIGHT TO SHANGHAI	4	10/1	Front-runner	98	97	58.8	73.0	62.5
6	EASY TO BLESS	6	20/1	Stalker	107	97	72.0	85.8	79.3
3	PIECE OF MY HEART	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	103	61.8	98.6	93.6
5	BETSY BLUE	5	3/5	Trailer	105	104	68.2	104.4	101.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LETS PLAY HARDBALL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIDARTH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LETS PLAY HARDBALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. UNCLE DREW: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. STRIKE LIGHTNING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	SIDARTH	5/2	9/2
5	LETS PLAY HARDBALL	10/1	5/1
8	UNCLE DREW	3/1	9/1
4	STRIKE LIGHTNING	9/5	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LETS PLAY HARDBALL	5	10/1	Front-runner	98	95	70.0	82.6	71.1
6	COULD BE	6	9/2	Stalker	97	83	78.5	78.0	68.0
1	BOO REID	1	7/2	Stalker	93	87	72.2	81.8	70.8
8	UNCLE DREW	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	89	64.2	87.4	78.4
2	SIDARTH	2	5/2	Trailer	102	103	53.2	95.6	90.6
4	STRIKE LIGHTNING	4	9/5	Trailer	101	88	42.0	84.0	75.0
3	GREELEYS CHARM	3	5/1	Trailer	99	84	41.0	84.2	71.2
9	ECRU	9	2/1	Trailer	103	88	40.6	76.9	73.9
7	GOING STRONG	7	4/1	Trailer	86	84	17.6	75.6	60.1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 1:59pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (ML=8/1)
#3 SMILEFORME (ML=7/2)
#7 TIZLIGHTNING (ML=4/1)
#6 EL DIABLO ROJO (ML=5/1)


MIDNIGHT SPECIAL - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the form to make his presence felt. 70-85-87 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this race. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (eighth). Should improve in today's race, with some respectable odds. SMILEFORME - The 94 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. TIZLIGHTNING - Ranks highest in earnings per start. A strong effort right here in this race will boost the lifetime total. EL DIABLO ROJO - Curatolo and Pineda perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +132 return on investment for a rider and conditioner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 KING OF SPEED (ML=4/1), #10 BOX OF CHOCOLATES (ML=5/1),

KING OF SPEED - He's likely going to get baked on the top end. This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance races in the last two months. BOX OF CHOCOLATES - Not likely for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a short distance affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8] Box [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[3,8] with [3,6,7,8] with [3,6,7,8] with [1,3,6,7,8,11] with [1,3,6,7,8,11] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WAR CROSS 4/1
# 2 MAPACHE G 9/5
# 1 SHIMMERING LIGHT 2/1

I've got to go with WAR CROSS. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last outing. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a solid choice. Formidable pick to take this race going in a dirt route. MAPACHE G - He should be considered given the competitive speed numbers. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. SHIMMERING LIGHT - Had one of the most favorable Speed Figures of this group in his last contest. He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the best in this field.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 6:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#11 HE GOTS TO GO (ML=9/2)
#6 SPEED WARNING (ML=5/2)
#5 NET WORTH (ML=7/2)


HE GOTS TO GO - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer duo. Jock hops right back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a positive sign. This colt surprised everybody by running second Dec 22nd. Gets help from Waltz with the addition of Lasix. This colt is in fine form. Ran second on Dec 22nd. This animal picks up a lot of cash per race around the track. Number one in this race. SPEED WARNING - Rodriguez and Stidham teamed up together are a railbird's friend. This colt gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Certainly could make the difference right here in this race. Stidham will try adding the 'shades' today in hopes of an improved performance. NET WORTH - This trainer (Cox) has a terrific win pct with first time starters. A great handicapping angle is 1st time Lasix. Cox gives it to this one for this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BLANTON (ML=8/1), #3 GOD OF WINE (ML=8/1),

BLANTON - Usually I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance contests in order to bet on him. GOD OF WINE - Not normally the kind of horse one plays off of any type of very long layoff. The form factor is somewhat in question after the addition of bandages in the October 3rd affair. Betting a turf horse first time on the dirt is a tough play.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #11 HE GOTS TO GO to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,6,11] with [5,6,11] with [1,3,5,6,11] with [1,3,5,6,11] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

01/21/23, FG, Race 10, 4.30 CT
01/21/23,FG,10,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:42:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $65,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $4,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $50,000 In Their Last 3 Starts).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Best	Occ	Win%	ROI
100.0000	2	Onasa	5/1	Loveberry J	Rivelli Larry	JTWL	102	37.25	1.40/$1
097.3990	8	Mobster	3/1	Saez L	Casse Mark E.	FE	102	37.25	1.40/$1
096.6807	3	Presider	6/1	Castellano J	DeVaux Cherie	S	102	37.25	1.40/$1
095.1441	1A	Silver Bull	9/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Foley Gregory D.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
094.6198	7	Single Ruler(b+)	8/1	Riquelme J	Desormeaux J. Keith		102	37.25	1.40/$1
094.0902	6	Kauai Dan	6/1	Gaffalione T	Asmussen Steven M.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
093.9705	1	Fight'n Ready	9/2	Morales E	Stewart Dallas		102	37.25	1.40/$1
093.5817	4	Baseline Beater	8/1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
092.8905	5	Briartown	12/1	Gutierrez R	Calhoun W. Bret		102	37.25	1.40/$1
092.4542	9	Two Rivers Over(b-)	10/1	Parker D L	Calhoun W. Bret	C	102	37.25	1.40/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 29.49, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.6010
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3