BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS
Fair Grounds - Race #8
PICKS NOTES
#6 Private Creed There have been a lot of really deep turf sprint stakes here over the years, but I'm not sure this is one of them, and this guy has recent credentials that make him tough if he can just hold form.
#4 Just Might He's definitely not what he was a couple years back, but he can still show some sharp pace from time to time, and there is still a little punch in him -- he was only a length and change off the Breeders' Cup winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this summer. Maybe.
#9 Sosua Summer Think those Saratoga tries from the summer would keep him in the frame, but that was really peak form that he hasn't quite duplicated elsewhere. Wouldn't argue much with anyone landing here.
Race Summary Private Creed is an honest finisher who probably find a decent spot not too far off the splits today, but he can be placed almost anywhere out of the gate and owns a Grade I placing at this trip. Think he'll handle these.
Fair Grounds - Race #9
PICKS NOTES
#5 Legadema Wonder if she might be the real deal after a sharp debut run, and she looks to get a pretty positive race flow today while stretching out in a spot that doesn't appear to have a lot of other early burn.
#6 West Omaha She has enough pace to keep up with the top choice early, and they may end up in a cat-and-mouse game on the backstretch that could decide this one. The main worry.
#3 Sistina Chapel Honest finisher got around two turns nicely enough in those last couple tries, and that kind of baseline effort seems good enough to at least make her a late player if the top two hook up.
Race Summary Legadema has to stretch that 5 1/2-furlong sprint pace around two turns, but I think she can control the tempo in here and might still have some upside.
Fair Grounds - Race #12
PICKS NOTES
#4 Neat Little bit of intrigue here while trying the dirt for the first time, as he was sharp in the graduation run and backed it up with an easy score here on the turf last month. He's obviously a talented turf horse with a future, but I don't blame the barn for wanting to find out about him at this time of year on the main track. I'll take a chance.
#2 Catching Freedom It's a two-deep race for me with these two. This guy had a nightmare trip last time out at even money -- it was actually pretty dreamy up to the quarter pole, but he never found a way through and was on and off heels the rest of the way while seemingly full of run. There might still be a lot of upward trajectory here.
#6 Nash He's probably supposed to drill these if the November Churchill score was any indication of what's coming next, but I'm hoping the guy drawn widest will be breathing down his neck the whole way. I'm going to try to beat him, but I'm interested to see what he's made of on the rise.
Race Summary Nash will be the buzz here -- he rolled home to graduate last time out and might control this one throughout. Catching Freedom is a really obvious trip note horse off his last, and Neat tries the main off a sharp turf score for a sire whose runners are typically about 3% better on the dirt than turf. Worth a shot.
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