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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE
Camarero - Race 6 Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 26 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. 5# A CLASF.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SALTINA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BLACK SILK: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SALTINA BLACK SILK REAL APPEAL
Line
Class
Speed
FigureBLACK SILK Front-runner LADY RUNNER Front-runner MYSTERE C Front-runner SHAKIN SONG Stalker REAL APPEAL Stalker KAYSERI Alternator/Trailer SALTINA Alternator/Trailer LOVE IS AWESOME Alternator/Trailer NOVELERA Alternator/Non-contender JOST DREAMY Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay DownsPURCHASE
Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6 Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile 40 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 3:03P FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (REGISTERED FLORIDA BREDS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. LAW OF THE JUNGLE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CALZONE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LAW OF THE JUNGLE: H orse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AIRMAN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SIDNEY'S BID: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CALZONE LAW OF THE JUNGLE AIRMAN SIDNEY'S BID
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSUNYANI Front-runner SAN ANDRES Front-runner TUCKER ROAD Alternator/Front-runner CALZONE Alternator/Stalker SIDNEY'S BID Alternator/Stalker AIRMAN Alternator/Stalker LAW OF THE JUNGLE Alternator/Trailer ERUDITE Alternator/Non-contender B G LEE Alternator/Non-contender BAD HENRY Alternator/Non-contender AMBUSHED Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $67000 Class Rating: 104
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 DONCIC 4/1
# 8 BOOK SMART 5/1
# 1 GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) 5/1
I think DONCIC is a competitive choice. Has performed strongly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 104 avg speed fig. Lately Rosario has been hot which may give the edge to this horse. Could beat this group given the 105 speed fig garnered in his last outing. BOOK SMART - Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the lead recently. Like the finishing positions in the last few contests. GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) - Has performed admirably recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 103 avg Equibase Speed Fig. Gamblers should take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of animals.
Oaklawn Park - Race #8 - Post: 3:52pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $72,000 Class Rating: 77
Rating:
#6 SPIRITUAL LADY (ML=3/1)
#4 HAPPY N SMILING (ML=9/2)
SPIRITUAL LADY - As the only speedy sort in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. Horses that finish in the place spot in Maiden races and finish well in front of the 3rd horse are generally good bets next time out. Gets help from Sharp with the addition of Lasix. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. HAPPY N SMILING - Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make her presence felt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 WHEN I LOOK AT YOU (ML=5/2), #2 WISE MISS (ML=5/1), #11 ALL THINGS GO (ML=8/1),
WHEN I LOOK AT YOU - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance affairs in order to support her. Will be hard for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list. WISE MISS - Will probably be stranded with much too much to do down the homestretch. No good results for this questionable contender in a short distance affair over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a formidable situation ALL THINGS GO - I just don't have a good intuition about this runner in this affair.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SPIRITUAL LADY - This thoroughbred should be your speculating choice today. This filly has posted improving speed figures in her last two races.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #6 SPIRITUAL LADY is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Charles Town - Race #9 - Post: 11:02pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,700 Class Rating: 69
Rating:
#5 REVEIRS MINUTE (ML=8/1)
#9 MYGIDGETMARIE (ML=12/1)
REVEIRS MINUTE - I have to figure that this contest's shorter trip should help this mare. I think this mare could run back to her winning race from August 19th, when she won a $15,000 Optional Claiming race, a higher class than today's race. When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should be helpful. Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the class ability to make her presence felt. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Charles Town. Could add another win right here in this race. MYGIDGETMARIE - This horse's last race was out at Charles Town in a race with a class number of 83. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure today puts her in a solid position in this race. Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +187. This jockey/conditioner twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. Looking over this mare's PPs, I see a couple of wins at double-digit odds.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 DROPKICK QUEEN (ML=2/1), #7 JAMESTOWN ROAD (ML=5/2), #12 GOLD TIME VIXEN (ML=3/1),
DROPKICK QUEEN - Improbable that this mount can win this sprint after not displaying early speed in that last route race. JAMESTOWN ROAD - Finished third last time out. Would have to move up to be on the board in today's race. Will be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. GOLD TIME VIXEN - In the last affair this pony finished sixth. Doesn't bode well for her chances in today's event. Don't feel this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #5 REVEIRS MINUTE on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:5 with 9 with [1,7,11] Total Cost: $3 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 68
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 HIGH INFLATION 9/5
# 2 PURPLE MOUNTAIN 7/5
# 1 HOT AND SPICY 3/1
HIGH INFLATION looks like the wager in here. Boasts solid speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Will probably compete very well in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 77 - of her last outing. PURPLE MOUNTAIN - Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this bunch. Facing a much softer field than last time out. HOT AND SPICY - This selection will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Will probably go to the front end and might never look back.
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 1/27/24
January 27, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita
RACE 1
1-EIGHT CLAP
Degree of confidence: C+
• Certain to appreciate the drop into a maiden $50,000 claimer.
• Blinkers on, adds Lasix, and sports the route-to-sprint angle.
• Projects to enjoy a ground saving trip, should be a late threat.
Others to consider: 4-Eligio; 5-Petesoldfashioned.
RACE 2
3-DE JORIA
Degree of confidence: B-
• Back at her claim level with the popular blinkers off angle.
• Stretches out again and should appreciate surface switch.
• Only win came on synthetic but is strong on speed figures.
Others to consider: 1-Magazine.
RACE 3
3-FAST GISELLE
Degree of confidence: B
• Solid runner-up in her local debut with a career top figure.
• Makes second start off a layoff and should step forward.
• Two easy breezes since raced, favorable pace scenario.
Others to consider: 6-Aventapp.
RACE 4
6-BELLA VIENNA
Degree of confidence: B
• Cozy outside draw, can pop and go or stalk and pounce.
• Troubled start when finishing fourth in a Los Al sprint.
• First time Lasix and is a perfect one-for-one on local dirt.
Others to consider: 3-Bossy Bruin Gal; 4-Dorie Miller
RACE 5
6-CURLIN’S KAOS
Degree of confidence: B
• In the money in all three starts with room to improve.
• Love the blinkers off angle; bred to enjoy the longer trip.
• First time on grass, sharp five furlong breeze since ran.
Others to consider: 3-Clements Ride; 2-Kiss for Lulu.
RACE 6
1-JUDGE MILLER
Degree of confidence: B+
• Lightly raced 4-year-old earned huge figures in both starts.
• Took intense pressure in hot maiden win, found extra late.
• Stretches out, lands rail, certain to try gate-to-wire tactics.
Others to consider: 8-Flying Drummer.
RACE 7
8-GEEZER
Degree of confidence: B
• Respectable third in Cal Cup Sprint behind The Chosen Vron.
• Much softer task in this first level allowance Hillside dash.
• Modest pace scenario, nice outside draw, will be prominent.
Others to consider: 7-Andy Can U Hear Me.
RACE 8
4-NEWGATE
Degree of confidence: A
• Loved his comeback sprint, gave Big City Lights a strong challenge.
• Stretches out, was a two-turn graded stakes winner here in 2023.
• Impressive workouts since raced, seems sure to step forward.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 9
7-HURRICANE CLOUD (GB)
Degree of confidence: B-
• Now in the Richard Baltas barn after a two months freshening.
• Drops to his lowest level ever, impressive San Luis Rey Downs tab.
• Shows a prior win over this course and distance, can tag the speed.
Others to consider: 3-Flavius; 10-Giovinazzo.
What You Need to Know - Gulfstream Park - 1/27/24
January 27, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know.”
Gulfstream Park – Saturday. January 27, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” Daily identifies those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Big Brass Bed; Baton Rose (Ire).
Backups/Savers: 10-Typey; 5-Demogorgon.
Forecast: Big Brass Bed launches a comeback for new trainer Brendan Walsh (strong stats with layoffs) and returns to the first-level allowance ranks after finishing a respectable sixth of 14 in the Woodbine Oaks in her most recent outing last July. The daughter to Nyquist prefers the settle in the second flight and then kick home, and from her comfortable inside draw underneath Frankie she should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Boston Rose (Ire) makes her U.S. debut – and her first start since last April - after displaying some ability with modest Timeform ratings in three races in the French provinces. She could easily be a better type on this side of the pond for Christophe Clement, especially as a first time Lasix user, and with a healthy series of workouts over the deepish Payson Park dirt track and a history of firing fresh (she won her debut) the daughter of No Nay Never represents stranger danger.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Victory Avenue; 8-Big City.
Backups/Savers: 3-My True Colors.
Forecast: Among the newcomers in this hot maiden extended sprint for sophomores, Victory Avenue has shown the most in his a.m. preparation and looks very much like a live item in a race in which there is only main contender among those that have raced. The son of Arrogate, a $375,000 OBS June Sale purchase, is light in the first two dams but turned in a very impressive breeze during the preview session (:10 flat) before proving quite popular through the ring. His local drills for Gustavo Delgado (just okay with debut runners) have been visually quite pleasing, so at 5-1 on the morning line there should be reasonable value on the tote. Big City earned a very strong 84 Beyer speed figure in his debut here last month when finishing a distant second to the extremely talented Born Noble, and with that bit of experience behind him the City of Light colt has every expectation of producing a forward move as a first time Lasix user. It should take a pretty good colt to beat him.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:00 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Sun Bee; 8-Howboutdemapples; 4-Fast as Flight.
Backups/Savers: 12-Spansive.
Forecast: Sun Bee is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and may be worth a gamble at that price. She was given too much to do when a rallying fifth (beaten less than two lengths) after being last of 12 at the top of the lane in the Tropical Park Oaks last month in a race that produced a career top 83 Beyer speed figure. Though facing older runners today, the daughter of English Channel projects to enjoy a mid-pack (or better), ground-saving trip from her favorable rail draw. An eye-catching turf breeze at Palm Meadows last week (5f, 1:01.4hb du) when proving best over her Graham Motion-trained workmate Zipadoo (entered in today’s first race) gives strong indication of an improving pattern. Fast as Flight exits a series of tougher races and in fact was a stakes winner at Ellis Park last summer. She’s eligible to this condition for having been entered for $62,500 (her first start for a tag) and is a prior winner over the local lawn with several previous speed figures that exceed par for this level. Simply stated, she’s a “must use.” Howboutdemapples is a seasoned, veteran race mare with a perfect (one-for-one) record over the Gulfstream Park turf course and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. She’s not particularly fast on numbers but has hit the board in 10 of 16 career starts and figures to be in the fray once again.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:31 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: 5-Sand and Sea; 3-Candy Light.
Backups/Savers: 7-Time Passage; 1-Beechnut Trophy.
Forecast: This all-weather handicap for older fillies and mares has Sand and Sea as the 9/5 morning line favorite and the high weight in the field at 124 lbs. She is unbeaten in three starts over the local Tapeta track, and while she’s primarily been a need-the-lead type the daughter of Liam’s Map can stalk and pounce if the situation requires it. If she’s pressured into a quicker-than-comfortable early pace, the race shape should set up nicely for Candy Light, now in the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn (had been a Graham Motion) and making her first start since finishing second in a listed stakes at Presque Isle Downs in October. The winner of the 2022 Tropical Park Oaks when it was contested over this all-weather track, the daughter of Candy Rider represents the most dangerous of the closing types, with several back numbers that make her a strong fit in this spot.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:02 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Masen; 7-Public Sector; 11-Ice Chocolat (Brz).
Backups/Savers: 2-J P Hellish
Forecast: It may be difficult to trust anything trainer Chad Brown sends out these days – to begin the week he was zero-for-26 with 20 off-the-board finishes at this meeting – but perhaps Masen (GB) can help turn things around. The veteran gelding started just twice last year, most recently when a respectable third in the Artie Schiller Stakes at Aqueduct in mid-November, and in this turf miler he should be able to fold over and secure a comfortable pace stalking journey similar to the type of trip he enjoyed when winning the Seek Again and Poker-G3 stakes during the summer of 2022. A series of nice recent breezes over the deep Payson Park dirt track should have him cranked and ready. <>b>Public Sector (GB) hasn’t won since October of 2021 but his recent numbers are solid, and with the switch to Frankie we’re expecting the veteran son of Kingman to be heard from late. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worthy of use on the main ticket. Ice Chocolat (Brz) is drawn farther out in the 11-hole than we’d prefer, but he does his best work from off the pace and if he can drop over early, get cover, and then have pace to run at the Mark Casse-trained import from South America may be able to justify his morning line favorite’s role of 2-1.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-R Calli Kim; 1-Romagna Mia (GB).
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: This is strictly a two-runner race, and we’ll use both in our rolling exotics, though if you’d prefer to take a stand R Calli Kim may deserve the very slight edge on top. A vastly improved winner of her last four races – a winning streak that began last summer after more than a year layoff – the seven year old mare earned a career top number when winning the Long Island S.-G3 at the Big A in November and has clearly become one of the better distaff marathoners in North America. She can win on the lead or from far off the pace, so the race flow won’t matter, and three years ago, when running for a mid-grade tag, she captured a couple of middle distances races over the local turf course, so we know she likes it. A bullet workout a couple of weeks ago at Palm Meadows tells us she remains right on edge. Romagna Mia (GB) won the Dowager S.-G3 at this 12 furlong distance at Keeneland two runs back and then demolished an all-weather field in a listed affair at that same trip here in late December. Numbers wise, she’s right there with our top pick.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:04 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Exact Estimate 9-Skyro
Backups/Savers: 4-Dreams of Tomorrow; 6-County Final; 12-Saratoga Flash.
Forecast: Here’s a spread affair; best suggestion is to include as many as your budget allows. Small ticket players can attempt to get by using the two listed above on our main ticket. Exact Estimate, a lightly raced 5-year-old, is fast on figures but will be making his first start on synthetic. The rail post should allow for a pace-prompting, ground-saving trip, so there should be no excuses other than the ice cold trainer (Brown) angle. Skyro was a disappointing sixth as the favorite under these conditions in late December after having won a similar all-weather affair earlier in the month in clever fashion. Anything close to his race before last puts him right there.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:41 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Cellist; 7-Verstappen; 1-Francesco Clemente
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the William L. McKnight Stakes-G3 over 12 furlongs on turf projects to be a creepy crawler affair that should promote the chances of those able to be on or near the early lead. Cellist fits the bill nicely – he may even make the running by default – and in his present form the veteran gelding seems capable of winning his first race since May of 2021. The Big Blue Kitten gelding lacks a turn of foot and needs to be within range throughout. He shouldn’t have any trouble securing that type of trip today. Verstappen can lay reasonably close in a slowly run affair and should draft into a good cozy spot early on. A close third after striking the front close home in the Red Smith Stakes-G2 at Aqueduct in mid-November last time out, the Brendan Walsh-trained gelding usually gets at least a piece of it and won’t have to improve much to win a race like this. Francesco Clemente has rising numbers and was a tad unlucky when finishing fastest of all but too late when missing by a neck in the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar during the fall meeting. Freshened for two months and a winner of half of his eight career starts, the Irish-bred five-year-old may be victimized by a lack of pace. Also, as a devout late runner he may encounter traffic along the way, but if he can secure a reasonable trip he’ll be right there.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:13 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9-Maryquitecontrary; 8-Gerrymander; 3-Intrepid Daydream.
Backups/Savers: 10-Olivia Darling
Forecast: Horse-for-course advocates will lean on Maryquitecontrary in this year’s edition of the Inside Information S.-G3 and rightfully so. Successful in seven of nine career starts over the Gulfstream Park main track and with loads on speed signed on that should complement her late running style, the daughter of First Dude is fresh from a solid score in the one-turn mile Rampart Stakes last month in a race that was slowly run early and played against her running style. She managed to rally late and win nonetheless, and we’re expecting her to do so again, especially with the help up front that she’s likely to receive. Gerrymander has races that chart well with these and her most recent (unplaced) outing – the Go For Wand Stakes-G3 - is a toss out due to the muddy surface that we suspect she couldn’t handle. Intrepid Daydream missed at 6/5 without mishap when runner-up in the Sugar Swirl Stakes-G3 here four weeks ago but the number was strong, and this extended sprint trip should allow her to settle early and then pick up steam when called upon. First or second in 11 of 14 career starts, the Maryland-bred mare will be making just her second start since joining the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn and has every right to run better today.
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RACE 10: Post: 3:45 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 6-Ruby Nell
Backups/Savers: 4-Star Fortress (Ire); 8-Queen Goddess; 9-Didia (Arg).
Forecast: Ruby Nell has really gotten good of late and the way she’s been training since her most recent runaway win in the Lady Shamrock S. at Santa Anita on New Year’s Eve we’re anticipating another career top performance in today’s Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational. Fast enough to make the running but comfortable taking back if anything chooses to engage her early, the daughter of Bold d’Oro has rising speed figures, a style that suits this glib turf course perfectly (especially with the short run in) and a morning line price of 8-1 that makes her an enthusiastic top pick. Trainer Richard Mandella doesn’t ship very often but this race was too valuable to pass up, so here she is. You may choose to protect using a few backups with legitimate credentials in rolling exotic play, but for us, Ruby Nell is our gamble of the day.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:20 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 1-Hejazi
Backups/Savers: 3-Steal Sunshine; 8-Accretive; 11-Tumbarumba.
Forecast: Hejazi has the perfect pace setting/forcing style for a one turn mile, and assuming he breaks cleanly from the rail the son of Bernardini should be able to control this race while on or near the lead every step of the way. The California invader is fast on figures and lost little in defeat when second to stable mate Speed Boat Beach in the seven furlong Malibu Stakes-G1 in late December. He’s been typically impressive in morning drills for trainer Bob Baffert since that race and arrives fit and ready to handle a field that contains nothing that he shouldn’t be able to outrun.
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RACE 12: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Integration
Backups/Savers: 9-Warm Heart; 5-Webslinger
Forecast: Integration is perfect in three starts and each win was more impressive than the previous. He’ll need to produce another forward move in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational-G1, but we’ll gamble that he’ll up to the task. The son of Quality Road is beautifully drawn in post three and projects to settle in the second flight with a ground-saving journey and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. On pure numbers he’s where he needs to be, and with the switch back to Tyler Gaffalione, who rode him in his maiden victory last summer, the Shug McGaughey-trained four year old rates top billing at a sensible 3-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 13: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Hoist the Gold; 7-National Treasure; 6-Senor Buscador.
Backups/Savers: 8-First Mission; 12-Skipopylongstocking.
Forecast: The pace projection is this year’s Pegasus World Cup Invitational is all over the map. It could be blazingly fast, which would favor the devout closers, such as Senor Buscador, or it could produce a “lone f” trip by either Hoist the Gold or National Treasure should one of the committed front runners choose to take back. Who knows what will transpire? Hoist the Gold has only one way to win and that’s for jockey John Velasquez to completely sell out leaving the gate and relegate National Treasure to a stalking role (‘Treasure has never won a race without being the controlling speed). However, if Flavian Prat, aboard ‘Treasure, goes hell bent for the lead and manages to secure the front end entering the clubhouse turn, he could easily roll all the way to the wire. Strictly due to price considerations, we’ll put Hoist the Gold on top, but truthfully this race looks on paper to be chaotic, and no result would surprise us.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
January 27, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
3-Official Treasurer (8-1)-Slow starts cause this veteran to win the hard way. Raced well last week and with this post draw should be a threat versus this crew.
4-Magical Mistress (2-1)-Cashed some smaller checks battling $50,000 claimers at Yonkers and evidently that justifies the
2-1 favoritism. Aaron Merriman gets the nod, which could be a winning difference and should be a threat at this class at a small price.
8-Lovely Munro (3-1)-The post helps the price and drops into a soft spot. Billy Davis steers for Cory Kreiser and this mare is a threat with a smooth trip. Has done good work at Nfld (18-5-2-4).
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
2-Dont Sweeten It (4-1)-The last start was in the slop and the previous 2 were from post 7. Doesn't like to win, the barn has been cold but should be competitive at this level. Ronnie Wrenn makes a rare appearance and racing near the top of the stack could be the plan for a picture.
6-Sugarpie Honey Bee (8-1)-A dry track would help and can grind its way around at this level. There isn't much form in this race and Eric Tharps stakes a seat. Hasn't been in this cheap and the price should be right to take a swing in a wide-open affair.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
2-She The North (6-1)-Drops and Billy Davis Jr is in the bike tonight. Starts close to the rail for a change and has a pilot that could work an efficient trip. This is a soft spot, hopefully won't be bet down and did have 7 wins in 2023.
5-Always Be City (9/2)-Merriman gets the nod, which got my attention and has hit the board in 11 of 17 at Nfld with 6 pictures. The last 2 times this pilot was between the pipes there were consecutive pictures versus better back in December.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
1-Ideal Cover (5/2)-This will be 2nd time for Lasix and the last race was stronger than the line looked. Did pace the last 1/2 mile in 56.4 from the pocket. Should be in line for the same type of journey and might not be denied.
3-Ribbon Ridge (9/2)-Comes off a win and Ryan Stahl could be aggressive when the wings fold and land on the point. Might be tough to tackle, leaving from this post could help chances for a picture.
8-Quinndelynn (7/2)-Will use the 3 that can leave and are probably going to be the shortest prices. This mare has been an odds-on choice in the last 3 races but should offer better value from post 8.
$1 Late Pick 4
3,4,8/2,6/2,5/1,3,8
Total Bet=$36
Jeff Siegel's Eye Catchers
January 27, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s “Eye Catchers”
We keep tabs on key workouts from runners at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita that should be given extra consideration when entered. Horses are listed alphabetically and will be eliminated after 30 days from inclusion. Click the link to view the video and listen to our commentary.
Antiquarian – Palm Beach Downs, Jan. 6, 2024. Finished second, Jan. 13, 2024, Gulfstream Park.
View Workout Video
Big City Lights – Santa Anita, Dec. 19, 2023. - WON, January 6, 2024, Santa Anita.
View Workout Video
Blue Fashion – Santa Anita, Jan. 15, 2024. - Unplaced, Jan. 20, 2024
View Workout Video
Bourbon Breeze – Palm Meadows, Dec. 22, 2023.
View Workout Video
Coffee in Bed – Santa Anita, Jan. 2, 2024. - Finished second, Jan. 20, 2024.
View Workout Video
Dangerous Game – Santa Anita, Dec. 28, 2023.
View Workout Video
Gun Barrel City – Gulfstream Park, Dec. 19, 2023.
View Workout Video
Miss Lizzy – Santa Anita, Dec. 24, 2023. Finished second, Jan. 5, 2024, Santa Anita.
View Workout Video
Muteki – Santa Anita, Dec. 27, 2023. Unplaced, Jan. 14, 2024, Santa Anita.
View Workout Video
Subsanador (Arg) – Santa Anita Park, Dec. 18, 2023. - Unplaced, Dec. 26, 2023, Santa Anita.
View Workout Video
Sun Bee – Gulfstream Park, Jan. 21, 2024.
View Workout Video
Turn Up the Trees – Palm Beach Downs, Jan. 6, 2024 - WON, Jan. 13, 2024, Gulfstream Park
View Workout Video
Race of the Week: Fred W. Hooper from Gulfstream | Saturday
January 24, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Saturday's Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream Park is loaded with stakes action throughout the card. Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have you covered in-depth with the 1/ST Pegasus World Cup Wager Guide, free to access, for the day's trio of marquee events. But you can't solve the late pick four, pick five on Rainbow 6 without the Race 11 Fred W. Hooper, sandwiched amongst the Pegasus World Cup, PWC Turf and PWC Filly & Mare Turf.
Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy two super promos Saturday at Gulfstream. There's up to a $20 money-back special on win bets that finish second or third in the Pegasus World Cup, PWC Turf or PWC F&M Turf; as well as $20,000 in Hit & Split promotions on the day's bevy of pick four and pick five offerings.
Field Depth:
Eleven of the 12 entrants are graded stakes-placed, including Grade 1-placed HEJAZI, EXPRESSMAN, CYCLONE MISCHIEF, GIANT GAME and GILMORE.
Pace:
HEJAZI and EXPRESSMAN from posts 1-2 in this 1-turn mile should show early foot. There's not a great deal of other obvious pace here, possibly ACCRETIVE and GREAT NAVIGATOR could be coaxed into the mix. This race looks favorable to those near the front.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-HEJAZI: Solid morning line favorite will bring west coast speed from the rail while taking on elders for the first time. Strong second in the Grade 1 Malibu for 3-year-olds on Dec. 26 behind Bob Baffert stablemate Speed Boat Beach, who was fourth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. This $3.55 million purchase always has been earmarked to be a good one and has been very consistent around one turn.
2-EXPRESSMAN: Firing bullets in the morning for his first start since May, the one-turn mile distance should suit a comeback bid -- not super-demanding. He won his debut by more than 7 showing he can do big things off just workouts for Todd Pletcher.
3-STEAL SUNSHINE: Only 1-for-7 last year and winless in 5 stakes tries, but has run his best locally and consistently comes with a late run over this track. The mile trip suits him best. How the 4th-place finisher from the Harlan's Holiday Stakes performs here may give us some extra info on the alumni of that race going later in the Pegasus World Cup.
4-CYCLONE MISCHIEF: Last year's third-place finisher in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby has made just one start since a Kentucky Derby disappointment. Legendary rider Frankie Dettori picks up the mount. Note this horse ran perhaps the best race of his career in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream.
5-DREAMING OF KONA: Upset last year's Mucho Macho Man at 19-1 over this same track and distance, but he's 1-for-8 since then. Consistent late season efforts at Gulfstream bring him back to the discussion after chasing outstanding sprinter Sibelius last time.
6-GILMORE: Despite his 0-for-8 stakes mark, he's always in the mix at races this distance or shorter. His runner-up last out to top-class sprinter Sibelius was a positive steppingstone to this race at a furlong farther. Former west coaster has shown he can run in any region over past year.
7-CASTLE CHAOS: On the also-eligible list for the Pegasus World Cup, that's a good sign that the horse is doing as well as he can be right now. Cigar Mile third-place finisher has been consistent with his late run, hitting the board in all 6 starts of 2023. His result here will give us a better line on the Cigar Mile alumni in the PWC.
8-ACCRETIVE: Vosburgh runner-up to superstar Cody's Wish was followed up with a pair of disappointing efforts, making you wonder if that race took something out of him. Trainer Chad Brown's been struggling throughout the Championship Meet to find his stride. This one feels like an underlay price with Irad Ortiz Jr. drawing additional money.
9-GIANT GAME: Curious to see how this route pace player translates back in the one-turn ranks. Since winning the Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows in July, things have mostly come off the rails. Would be an upset to beat these for sure.
10-GREAT NAVIGATOR: No match for a few of these in the Mr. Prospector last time and he's done all his best work at Monmouth, primarily vs. other New Jersey-breds. Tough spot for true longshot.
11-TUMBARUMBA: His last 5 races at a mile or shorter on fast tracks have netted 4 wins and a runner-up among them. Luis Saez has been a good fit and returns in the saddle and don't be surprised if this one outruns expectations for a Brian Lynch barn absolutely clicking this meeting.
12-SIGNATOR: Just missed behind Pegasus World Cup entrant Crupi last time out in the Queen's County. Deep closer will need a fast pace in order to be most effective, so expect jockey Javier Castellano to let them leave in front of him and begin to drop over in the long run down the backstretch to save ground and come with his run.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
HEJAZI is 8-for-8 in the superfecta, 7-for-8 in the trifecta and 6-for-8 in the exact lifetime and gets a solid pace advantage with rail speed.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GILMORE could light the superfecta at 15-1 morning line.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win TUMBARUMBA. $10 exacta box TUMBARUMBA and HEJAZI ($20). $5 exacta key-box TUMBARUMBA with EXPRESSMAN, STEAL SUNSHINE ($20).
Jon White: Pegasus Picks, Plus Kentucky Derby Top 10 Changes
January 24, 2024 | By Jon White
This country’s most lucrative race during the first half of the year, Gulfstream Park’s $3 million Pegasus World Cup, will be renewed at 1 1/8 miles this Saturday (Jan. 27).
An overflow field of 13 has been entered, including one also eligible.
From the rail out, the main body of the race is comprised of Nimitz Class (20-1 on the morning line), O’Connor (8-1), Dynamic One (15-1), Hoist the Gold (12-1), Trademark (15-1), Senor Buscador (20-1), National Treasure (9-5), First Mission (7-2), Grand Aspen (8-1), Il Miracolo (20-1), Crupi (20-1) and Skippylongstocking (8-1).
Castle Chaso (20-1) is the lone also eligible.
Below are my selections for the Pegasus World Cup:
1. National Treasure
2. First Mission
3. Senor Buscador
4. O’Connor
I tried and tried and tried to pick someone other than National Treasure on top. Might he be vulnerable as the 9-5 morning-line favorite? Yes. He’s been the favorite only once in his 10 career starts. How did he do? He lost, finishing third as the 3-5 favorite in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes early in 2023.
If National Treasure is vulnerable, then why is he my top pick? There are three main reasons.
--First, post positions are extremely important in this race. That’s because in 1 1/8-mile contests on Gulfstream’s main track, there is a short run to the clubhouse turn. Outside posts historically win a low percentage of the time. Poor Skippylongstocking had dreadful luck by drawing post 12.
--Second, National Treasure now is a 4-year-old. When he was 2, he was good enough to finish third to Forte and Cave Rock in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Prior to the Breeders’ Cup, National Treasure’s Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, told me that this “was a good 2-year-old, but he should be even better on down the line.”
On down the line as a 3-year-old, National Treasure became a classic winner by capturing the Grade I Preakness Stakes. Granted, that probably was far from an especially strong edition of the Preakness. But when National Treasure won the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it was to his credit that the vanquished included Kentucky Derby winner Mage, who finished third.
After the Preakness, National Treasure failed to hit the board in his next three starts. He finished sixth in the Grade I Belmont Stakes, fifth in the Grade I Travers Stakes and fourth in the Grade I Awesome Again Stakes.
I think a case can be made to draw a line through those three defeats. The Belmont? Possibly just too far for him. The Travers? It was on a wet track listed as muddy. The Awesome Again? He didn’t get to race on dry land this time, either, as it was a wet-fast track.
We then saw National Treasure’s best performance to date by far. Sent off at odds of 9-2, the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt set the pace and finished second in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He got nailed in the last jump by 4-5 favorite and multiple Grade I winner Cody’s Wish.
National Treasure recorded a 107 Beyer Speed Figure in the BC Dirt Mile. His previous top Beyer was the 98 he got in the Preakness.
--Third, I just can’t go against National Treasure in the Pegasus because of the verve with which he has been training at Santa Anita. This past Saturday (Jan. 20), in a solo drill, he stepped four furlongs in a sharp :46.80 to suggest it’s all systems go for his 2024 debut this Saturday.
You can view National Treasure’s most recent workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/national-...ary-20th-2024/
I was tempted to make First Mission my top pick instead of National Treasure. But when push came to shove, I decided to go with National Treasure, a Preakness winner and big BC Dirt Mile runner-up, rather than First Mission, whose most significant victory so far came in a Grade III race, last year’s Lexington Stakes.
Will I be surprised if First Mission wins the Pegasus? No. I look for the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt to prove a tough customer in his first start since losing the Grade II Clark Stakes by a scant nose at Churchill Downs on Nov. 24.
Brad Cox trains First Mission, who has finished first or second in all five career starts.
Senor Buscador, trained by Todd Fincher, comes off a second in the Grade II Cigar Mile on a muddy Aqueduct oval Dec. 2. At 20-1 on the morning line, I like Senor Buscador to come running late and perhaps get into the exacta, trifecta or superfecta at what could be a juicy price, though I think it’s possible he will be a shorter price than his 20-1 morning line odds, maybe a much shorter price. I am not even ruling out an upset win by the Kentucky-bred son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft and grandson of 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy.
O’Connor, conditioned by Saffie Joseph Jr., is seeking his third straight graded stakes victory. The 7-year-old Chilean-bred son of Boboman won Keeneland’s Grade II Fayette Stakes on Oct. 28, then took Gulfstream’s Grade III Harlan’s Holiday Stakes on Dec. 30.
Hoist the Gold, who like Senor Buscador is by Mineshaft, won the aforementioned Cigar Mile by a decisive 4 1/2 lengths and posted a laudable 109 Beyer Speed Figure, but I think he benefited greatly on that occasion by a speed-favoring muddy surface. Another concern I have for him in the Pegasus is this will be the first time he’s in a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. And in his only try at 1 1/16 miles, he lost by 6 1/4 lengths when fourth in a Grade III race named after his sire at Fair Grounds early in 2023.
While I am not on board with Hoist the Gold in the Pegasus, Jeff Siegel is one highly respected handicapper who is. This is Siegel’s top pick.
You are cordially invited to check out the digital 1/ST BET Pegasus World Cup Wager Guide, which includes the Pegasus selections by yours truly, Siegel and a number of others, plus lots of other information. It’s FREE! Here is the link: https://news.1st.com/blog/pegasus-world-cup-picks
UPDATED KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
The deadline looms.
Monday (Jan. 29) is when 3-year-olds trained by trainer Bob Baffert must be transferred to another trainer in order to become eligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Consequently, I have decided that, for this week, I am taking Baffert-trained runners Nysos (No. 2 last week) and Muth (No. 4 last week) off my Top 10 while waiting to find out what their status is in terms of the Run for the Roses.
I then can adjust my Top 10 next week after seeing what happens with the Baffert-trained 3-year-olds. In other words, if we find out that a 3-year-old currently trained by Baffert has indeed been moved to another trainer, that 3-year-old then can either go back onto my Top 10 or debut on my Top 10 next week.
Maybe Nash and/or Muth and/or marvelous maiden winner Maymun will be transferred from Baffert to another trainer. Or maybe they won’t. We all should know after the Jan 29 deadline has passed.
On Monday (Jan. 22), Baffert announced via the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he and owner Zedan Racing are dropping their appeal of a Kentucky Horse Racing Commission ruling to disqualify Medina Spirit from his victory in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Medina Spirit was disqualified after he tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day.
“Zedan Racing’s owner, Amr Zedan, and I have decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers,” Baffert said in the social media post. “We thank the KHRC and Churchill Downs for listening and considering our point of view and we are grateful for the changes and clarity that HISA brings to our sport.”
After the Medina Spirit disqualification, Baffert was suspended from participating at tracks owned by Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) in 2022 and 2023, effectively keeping the trainer out of the Kentucky Derby.
Last July 3, Churchill announced it was “extending the suspension of Bob Baffert through calendar year 2024 based on continued concerns regarding the threat to the safety and integrity he poses to CDI-owned racetracks.”
This year on Jan. 12, Churchill Downs announced that “horses under the care of any trainer suspended from competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby or 2024 Kentucky Oaks must be transferred to a non-suspended trainer by Jan. 29 to become eligible for the applicable race. Horses under the care of a suspended trainer will become eligible to earn qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby or Road to the Kentucky Oaks on a forward-looking basis after the transfer is complete so long as the transfer is complete by the Jan. 29 deadline.”
When Baffert and Zedan Racing announced Monday that they were dropping their appeal, speculation arose that maybe, just maybe, Churchill Downs would lift its suspension of Baffert. However, hope of that happening seemed to be shot down Tuesday morning.
“On Tuesday morning, Churchill said in a new statement in response to an inquiry by DRF that ‘yesterday’s dismissal of appeal does not change the current [ban] or deadline to transfer horses’ for this year’s Derby,” Daily Racing Form’s Matt Hegarty wrote.
“Under Churchill’s ban, any horse that is in Baffert’s barn past Jan. 29 is ineligible to enter the Derby this year,” Hegarty added.
Meanwhile, chiefly on the basis of his five-furlong team drill last Saturday (Jan. 20) at Florida’s Palm Beach Downs, I am elevating Born Noble to No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. He was No. 6 last week.
You can watch that workout by Born Noble on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/city-of-l...ary-20th-2024/
That’s none other than Fierceness that Born Noble worked with last Saturday. According to Equibase, the two colts trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher were timed in an identical :59.48.
Yes, Born Noble was clocked in the exact same time as scintillating Grade I BC Juvenile winner Fierceness, who is No. 1 on my Top 10. Fierceness also tops such other Kentucky Derby rankings as those by Bloodhorse’s Byron King, Countdown to the Crown’s Jeremy Plonk and Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin.
To be nitpicky, it appears to me on the XBTV video that Fierceness, on the outside, is a few inches ahead of Born Noble, who is on the inside. And so I think Fierceness’ time should have been maybe just ever-so-slightly faster than Born Noble’s in terms of hundredths of a second.
The pair continued head-and-head while galloping out on the turn before Fierceness edged just a head to a neck in front early on the backstretch.
But the point is, in this workout, Born Noble certainly held his own with Fierceness.
Born Noble kicked off his racing career in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 30. On a wet track rated good, the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt raced greenly in the stretch, yet drew away late to prevail by 5 1/2 lengths. He was credited with a 93 Beyer, a figure that compares favorably with Fierceness’ in his career debut.
When Fierceness won a six-furlong maiden race by 11 1/4 lengths on a muddy track when unveiled at Saratoga last summer, he recorded a 95 Beyer.
An item regarding Fierceness’ workout last Saturday can be found in the news section on Gulfstream Park’s website. It said in part:
“Repole Stable’s homebred Fierceness turned in a sharp five-furlong breeze Saturday at Palm Beach Downs as he continues to work toward his 3-year-old debut in the $350,000 Holy Bull [Grade III] Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park…Fierceness was timed in :59.48, the fastest of 12 horses at the distance.”
Well, actually, Fierceness’ :59.48 was the co-fastest with Born Noble of 12 horses at the distance.
“Fierceness has trained super,” Pletcher was quoted as saying. “He’s such a terrific work horse. He does everything effortlessly. I think with Fierceness we feel like that quality’s there [and] the talent’s there. Like everyone else, we just need [him] to keep moving forward and stay healthy.”
Evidently Pletcher was not asked about Born Noble’s workout last Saturday, even though the colt held his own when working in company with Fierceness. It would have been nice for Gulfstream Park to get a comment from Pletcher as to what he thought of Born Noble in his team drill with Fierceness.
Speaking of Pletcher, he also trains Locked, who moves up to No. 3 on my Top 10 this week after I have taken Nysos and Muth off the list for the time being. In all the many years that I have been doing a Kentucky Derby Top 10, this is the first time that the same trainer has had the horses ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3.
Locked is scheduled to make his first 2024 start in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt won Keeneland’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity before finishing third as the 2-1 favorite to Fierceness and Muth in the BC Juvenile.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Fierceness
2. Born Noble
3. Locked
4. Sierra Leone
5. Dornoch
6. Knightsbridge
7. Hall of Fame
8. Track Phantom
9. Timberlake
10. Catching Freedom
Bubbling Under My Top 10: Book’em Danno, Carbone, Change of Command, Coach Prime, Conquest Warrior, Crimson Light, El Capi, First World War, Honor Marie, Imagination, Liberal Arts, Lightline, Maymun, Muth, Nysos, Otello, Otto the Conqueror, Parchment Party, Pilot Commander, Real Men Violin, Snead, Stretch Ride, The Wine Steward, Tuscan Sky and Wynstock.
Hall of Fame, Track Phantom and Timberlake are newcomers on this week’s Top 10.
Nash, along with Nysos and Muth, exits my Top 10 this week. After Nash’s impressive 10 1/4-length maiden win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12, he has lost a pair of Fair Grounds races won by Track Phantom. Nash finished third as the 1-2 favorite in the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes, then ran second in last Saturday’s Grade III Lecomte Stakes.
I thought Hall of Fame was extremely impressive when winning a Fair Grounds maiden race by 10 1/4 lengths last Saturday in his second career start. In his only previous appearance under silks, the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt finished second in a seven-furlong maiden race at Churchill on Nov. 26.
In his career debut, Hall of Fame recorded a paltry 66 Beyer Speed Figure. He soared to a 94 Beyer for his performance last Saturday when racing around two turns for the first time.
Hall of Fame the colt has a Hall of Fame trainer in Steve Asmussen, who also conditions the talented Track Phantom. The Lecomte was Track Phantom’s third consecutive victory after losing his first two starts.
According to Asmussen, the plan is for both Hall of Fame and Track Phantom to run next in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 17.
While the Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old Nash has departed my Top 10 this week, the trainer has another 3-year-old, Timberlake, debut at No. 9.
Timberlake had his first workout of the year last Saturday, three furlongs in :36.20 at Fair Grounds. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt is targeting Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24 for his first 2024 start. He won the Grade I Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last Oct. 7 before finishing fourth in the BC Juvenile.
Cox also trains Smarty Jones Stakes winner Catching Freedom, who again is No. 10 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week, which is the same position he held last week.
FIERCENESS INDIVIDUAL FAVORITE IN DERBY FUTURE WAGER
Not surprisingly, Fierceness was the favorite among 39 individual horses in Pool 3 of Churchill Down’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) when betting closed last Sunday (Jan. 21). His odds were 8-1.
The “All Other 3-Year-Olds From The 2021 Foal Crop” option closed with the lowest odds at 2-1.
No 3-year-olds trained by Bob Baffert were included among the individual horses in KDFW Pool 3 because of the trainer being suspended from tracks owned by Churchill Downs Incorporated.
I wrote last week “three horses I plan to put money on if they stay anywhere near their KDFW Pool 3 morning-line prices are Sierra Leone at 30-1 Knightsbridge at 50-1 and Born Noble at 60-1.”
Sierra Leone? He closed at 13-1, a far cry from 30-1. And so I passed.
Knightsbridge? He closed at 26-1, well below 50-1. Again, I passed, especially since I already did make a $100 Kentucky Derby future wager on Knightsbridge a while back at 50-1.
Born Noble? Even though he closed at 41-1, well below 60-1, I thought 41-1 was an acceptable price. As mentioned earlier, Born Noble held his own in a workout last Saturday (Jan. 20) with Fierceness. In light of that workout, Born Noble’s 41-1 price in KDFW Pool 3 sure looked attractive to me vis-a-vis Fierceness’ 8-1.
And so I did put money on Born Noble in KDFW Pool 3. It was the only bet I made in Pool 3. This Born Noble wager at 41-1 goes along with the $100 that I bet on him at odds of 90-1 at Circa in Las Vegas on Dec 28, two days before the colt’s victorious debut.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs for Pool 3 of the 2024 KDFW:
2-1 All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings
8-1 Fierceness
13-1 Sierra Leone
15-1 Dornoch
18-1 Conquest Warrior
18-1 Locked
18-1 Track Phantom
25-1 Honor Marie
26-1 Knightsbridge
28-1 Catching Freedom
30-1 Timberlake
33-1 El Capi
34-1 Forever Young
35-1 Nash
36-1 Carbone
41-1 Born Noble
51-1 Parchment Party
59-1 Otello
67-1 Book’em Danno
69-1 Snead
72-1 Liberal Arts
74-1 Ari’s Magic
77-1 The Wine Steward
80-1 Imperial Gun
83-1 Change of Command
83-1 Ethan Energy
88-1 Tuscan Sky
91-1 Otto the Conqueror
93-1 Resilience
93-1 Time for Truth
95-1 Stretch Ride
104-1 Amante Bianco
107-1 Deterministic
107-1 Just Steel
123-1 Real Men Violin
129-1 Merit
152-1 Cardinale
204-1 Stronghold
222-1 Lat Long
SCR Drum Roll Please
Wagering on Drum Roll Please was suspended after the Jerome Stakes winner came out of an Aqueduct workout with an injury.
Drum Roll Please, who won the Jerome by 3 3/4 lengths on Jan. 6, worked four furlongs in :49.55 at Belmont Park on Jan. 19. Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported that owner Al Gold said that after Drum Roll Please’s workout, the Hard Spun colt “was off in a hind leg and X-rays showed an apical medial sesamoid fracture of his left hind ankle,” an injury that will require surgery.
Three more KDFW pools will be conducted this year: Feb. 16-18 (Pool 4), March 15-17 (Pool 5) and April 4-6 (Pool 6). The lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will coincide with KDFW Pool 5.
Meet the Contenders: $1 million 1/ST BET Pegasus World Cup Turf
January 22, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Meet the Contenders: $1 million 1/ST BET Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at Gulfstream | Saturday, January 27, 2024
Saturday’s megacard at Gulfstream Park, headlined by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup, gets tremendous undercard support from the $500,000 Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf as well as the $1 million 1/ST BET Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. First post is 11 am ET on the 13-race program.
Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy $20,000 in various Hit & Split promotions throughout the multi-race wagering lineup.
Let’s meet the contenders for the 1/ST BET Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (Race 12):
#1-ATONE: Defending champion in the PWC Turf could become the race’s first two-time winner. Versatile pace style comes in handy from the rail and he’s won 2 of his last 3 at this mile and one-eighth distance. Internationally acclaimed jockey Oisin Murphy rides for the first time on this Mike Maker trainee.
#2-JERRY THEN NIPPER: Blinkers go on for the first time after a spotty run in the Fort Lauderdale, the New York-bred’s first local start. Beaten only a half-length when third that day despite losing position mid-race in traffic and re-rallying. Todd Pletcher turns again to Jose Ortiz on this 7-year-old who has made only 20 starts, winning 6.
#3-INTEGRATION: Unbeaten upstart has won the Virginia Derby and Hill Prince Stakes in his last two starts for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. This $700K son of the classy turf mare Harmonize didn’t debut until August of his 3-year-old season, but could be on the fast track to divisional stardom with a win. This will be his first stakes bid against older horses and he draws Tyler Gaffalione back to the saddle.
#4-I’M VERY BUSY: Chad Brown found Preakness glory with this colt’s sire Cloud Computing, and he’ll have leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard as they look to upset the PWC Turf. Distant runner-up to Integration in the Hill Prince is 0-3 in stakes so far.
#5-WEBSLINGER: Long sophomore season ranged February through December, winning 3 of 9, including the American Turf on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard. No stranger to big events and crowds, he was a rallying third in the Twilight Derby on Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Santa Anita. Mark Casse gives a leg up to jockey Edgard Zayas for the first time aboard this son of Florida Derby winner Constitution.
#6-KINGMAX: Irish-bred has won half of his 4 domestic starts since exporting from the UK, both allowance races last summer at Monmouth. Strong second at 17-1 in the local Fort Lauderdale prep while making his first start at Gulfstream for trainer Jorge Delgado. He’ll be piloted once again by 24-year-old rising Irish jockey David Egan.
#7-ADHAMO: Light 2023 season saw just 3 starts, finishing a disappointing 10th at 54-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. But he placed in the Grade 1 Arlington Million and Grade 1 Canadian International prior to that, and was a Grade 1 United Nations winner in 2022. Former French performer gets regular domestic rider Flavien Prat back in the saddle, always a dangerous jockey-trainer combo paired with Chad Brown.
#8-MASTER PIECE: Seventh in this race last year when defeated by 3 lengths, this 8-year-old veteran comes off a victory in November’s Grade 2 Red Smith at Aqueduct. Chip Dutrow will be the fourth trainer of record for this in the last 14 months, assuming the duties here from his brother, Rick. Jose Lezcano, who rode him to victory at the Big A, returns to the saddle aboard a colt who placed over the local turf in 2023’s Mac Diarmida and Pan American.
#9-WARM HEART: Star filly from Aidan O’Brien’s yard in Ireland has been a world traveler with repute through 10 starts, winning half. She was a neck runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and then a strong third in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase against the boys at Sha Tin. A deserving 9-5 morning line favorite, she gets in at 118 pounds Saturday, 5 less than her male rivals on the weight allowance. Ryan Moore returns to ride the multiple Group 1 winner in the UK and France.
#10-SHIRL’S SPEIGHT: The Group 1 Maker’s Mark Mile winner from 2022 has lost 10 straight, but those defeats include a runner-up in the ’22 Breeders’ Cup Mile and the ’23 Woodbine Mile. Exits a better-than-looks eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita, beaten only 2-1/2 lengths in a very strong edition of that race. First local start for 7-year-old who has made just 19 career starts, and note her $1.6 million-earning mama Perfect Shirt was 0-2 on the Gulfstream lawn. Luis Saez rides for Hall of Famer Roger Attfield.
#11-MAIN EVENT: Wire-to-wire upset winner of the local prep, the Fort Lauderdale, at 11-1 odds. Veteran jockey Javier Castellano long has been a front-end turf maestro and applied familiar tactics last out to beat PWC Turf return rivals Kingmax and Jerry the Nipper. Likely to challenge Jerry the Nipper once again for the engine, despite the wide post position draw. His 4: 3-1-0 record over the GP lawn stands out.
#12-CATNIP: World renowned jockey Frankie Dettori picks up the mount here for Mike Stidham. This son of Kitten’s Joy has been away since August’s Arlington Million when a disappointing eighth. Strong summer at Monmouth Park, winning a stakes and finishing second in the Grade 1 United Nations. Stalking style in terms of pace will be challenged by wide draw, but he’s in elite hands.
#13-GRAND SONATA (AE) and #14-ANGLOPHILE (AE): Both also-eligible runners are cross-entered in the W.L. McKnight (Race 8) and will require a scratch in order to draw into the PWC Turf field.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Santa Anita - Race #5
Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes #2 Kiss for Lulu He should be in another good spot tracking the splits today, and his recent tries with similar have established a baseline that keeps him competitive with these. #6 Curlin's Kaos Wouldn't be a surprise to see him handle the move around two turns after turning in a trio of decent sprint efforts to kick off his career. Forward player should get the jump. #4 Yellow Jacket His form might be a touch more honest than it looks at first glance, and he should appreciate getting back on the grass after the trip to Turfway last out. Race Summary Kiss for Lulu should be in the right kind of spot while tracking the pace, and the price might be just playable enough in a competitive spot. #3 Clements Ride seems as good as any in here but might be overbet.
Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes #2 Stilleto Boy Nothing to write home about in the more recent form, but he goes second off the break around the time he started to get good last year, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him bring something more competitive today. Better stuff hits hard. #5 Newgrange He and the guy just inside of him both figure for similar trips, but this guy might get the slightest jump today that could get him home. #6 Mr Fisk Finisher looks for his third straight, and he benefits if a few of these with some tactical pace set an honest tempo ahead of him. He was flattered by Newgrange recently, too. Race Summary Stilleto Boy needs much better than we've seen from him in recent starts, but I'm hoping he has better to offer today after he had a nice run of races last winter around this time
Picks Notes #8 Stayincotai He's got the long layoff to contend with, but he's showing up in an easier spot than the graded stakes races he tried back in late 2022. Probably not a ton of upside here, but he might be able to handle these. #10 Giovinazzo Speed should be quick enough to find a good spot from the high draw, and he has a mild rating gear if needed, too. Makes sense. #7 Hurricane Cloud One of his better tries would probably make him tough in here, and his recent running lines have come against better company. Can atone today. Race Summary Stayincotai has been away for some time and has questions to answer today, but he might be a good fit with this kind of company while racing off the layoff.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Delta Downs - Race #2
Delta Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes #8 THROWIN SHADE (5-2) Useful return, has done best running in long sprints, meets solid nw/3 field. #6 RISKY PRIORITY (8-1) Sustained long rally to just miss, earning his top speed figure along the way. #5 MO CREDO (7-2) Starts fresh for new barn, should sit ideal trip from off the pace. Race Summary THROWIN SHADE pressed the pace at one mile in his seasonal debut before the two favorites and JOEY’S LIGHTNING passed by. He figures tough on the cutback to 7F and drop out of the allowance ranks but will need a top effort in a deep field that averages $57,600 in earnings per starter. Bet to win and place.
Delta Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes #1 DR. SPECK (5-2) Battled gamely to stretch in well-bet debut, moves outside in. #2 RUN CARLOS (4-1) Hit board in 7 of 11 starts, starts fresh, gets pace to rally into. #5 LOVELY SASSICAIA (6-1) Awakened on switch to main track in second start, led until late. Race Summary DR. SPECK took serious money, outran his workouts and finished third behind the winning favorite after he dueled between rivals. He gets Lasix again and gets in light-weighted from a difficult post. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #1 HEZA PRIORITY (12-1) New pilot must keep late runner in range for upset possibility. #3 SAILOR CHOW (2-1) First or second in 12 of 30 starts, has run well under these conditions. #5 MCLEAN (6-1) Finished in the money in 3 of 4 starts as a 7-year-old, can join $100k Club. Race Summary Fair Grounds invader HEZA PRIORITY raced wide throughout after a slow start and never threatened at 6F. But his best rally fits okay in this speed-laden field if he stays in closer contact early on the jockey change. Bet to win and place.
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Jan 27 '24, 1:00 PM in 7h
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