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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
February 2, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card to start the weekend. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
1-Kamara (5-1)-Came a big 2nd half to win last week. The 55.0 back half was impressive, will include and hope the morning line price holds up.
3-Unfiltered (6-1)-The last line was better than it looked, although stayed inside. James Kennedy gets the nod and could roll by down the lane with an efficient trip.
5-Gee Wilikers (2-1)-Usually in the hunt and deserves respect. Should be bet but might not be able to win without having the lead turning for the wire.
Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)
2-South Gate Sally (6-1)-Svendsen's choice over #7 the 6/5 morning line choice, comes off a win that was aided by a sharp drive. Started from post 8 last time and comes right back. Gets post relief and could be in line for another picture.
4-Illseeifican (6/5)-Got roughed up a bit at the start and then couldn't sustain a rally. Seems to be on an every other good race schedule, and this should be go time to cash the top check. This race will likely set-up differently and the 1/2 time won't be 1.01 if the track is fast.
Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)
1-Nebble Hanover (9/2)-Was used going 1st over in the 1st start off the bench in a needed race. Lands in a good spot, should like the company, drawing the rail can help, and should be tighter. Jim Lackey could have this mare forwardly placed and might get sucked around.
3-Halleysbigcomet (3-1)-Jacob's Cutting choice over #4 likes to get the top, and that should be the plan tonight. Has been successful getting on the engine in 2 of the last 6 races. Should have the gate speed to land on the point without using much gas and could be tough to tackle down the lane.
Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)
6-Do It For Mikey (7/2)-Has been trying hard and makes its 4th start on Lasix. Tried to wire the field from post 9 last time and faded down the lane. Gets some post relief so will look for a smoother trip and that could be the winning difference.
7-Karpathian Nights (6-1)-Makes the 4th start off the bench and Cutting gets the call. May need a more aggressive steer and that could happen. There's not a lot of early speed in this affair and getting a close-up seat could lead to a better outcome.
1.00 Pick 4
1,3,5/2,4/1,3/6,7
Total Bet=$24
Tampa Bay Downs Pick 4 | Friday, Feb. 2
February 2, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
TAMPA BAY DOWNS PICK 4
Friday, February 2, 2024
The 50-cent Late Pick 4 at Tampa Bay Downs paid more than $1,150 three times in the past week. The trend could continue this Friday, Feb. 2, with 40 entries spanning the last four races on the card. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $42 play:
TAM 6th race (3:03 p.m. EST) -- Go deep in the first leg of the Pick 4. FLIPPING FISH was dismissed at 7-2 odds or less in 16 of his last 17 starts for a reason. He’s ultra-consistent, loves to win and has good tactical speed. FREEDOM ROAD dueled through soft fractions and held off FLIPPING FISH for second at 7F, but he can alter tactics and rally into winning contention in this spot with a faster pace likely. AUGER earned nearly $80,000 last year in Ohio and sparred with FLIPPING FISH several times for top honors. LORD BERRIER hasn’t run 6-1/2F since he won twice as a 4-year-old at Tampa by a combined 14 lengths. He’s worth using at 10-1 on the morning line. DOIN’ITTHERIGHTWAY won 3 of his last 4 starts going a route of ground on fast, good and sloppy tracks – and he can save ground from the rail. EXACTING is lightly raced, but he has five wire-to-wire wins at as many distances in his last 12 starts. BIG BUCKSALOT won his second consecutive long sprint in a race that produced two next-out winners; however, a claim on him was voided by the vet.
TAM 7th race (3:34 p.m. EST) -- LUCKY LUCKY LUKE is working forwardly for his first start since a claim on him was voided in October. He gets ample pace flow to launch a winning rally if he avoids a recurring slow start. SAM STORMY rallied for third behind even-money favorite R ADMIRAL two back and hard-hitting ALEMAN (5/3-2-0, $62K), now makes his seasonal debut for a 17-percent layoff barn. CORONOVA is knocking on the door for his first turf victory, leading at the stretch call in 3 of his last five starts on the lawn, only to lose in photo finishes.
TAM 8h race (4:04 p.m. EST) -- SHAKEN AND SHIMMY sat a good trip off a 4-way pace battle and loomed boldly when he swung 5-wide for the stretch drive. But he floated wide and was no match for the 7-to-5 winner. He won twice in photo finishes with Allen aboard and benefits from the shorter distance. STRONGER TOGETHER, the light-weight in the 10-horse field, was no factor in his winter return to Tampa but he finished behind a next-out winner and two runners-up who posted average 80 Beyers. In his prior start at Woodbine, he trailed after a crowded start and swept to command with a 4-wide bid at the quarter pole to win.
TAM 9th race (4:38 p.m. EST) -- The top four finishes from a December 27 race under these conditions reunite in today’s finale. FIEDELIGHTCAYUT repelled two challenges and found more in deep stretch to spring the 18-1 upset. He faces a tougher task from post 10 with more speed in the race, but he gets Lasix and could repeat at another good price. LORD KNOWS, an easy maiden breaker in his turf debut, had the toughest trip of the returnees when he was shuffled late on the backstretch and steadied sharply when blocked with run at the eighth pole. He is a must use on the ticket.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
TAM 6th Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
TAM 7th Race: 1, 2, 8
TAM 8th Race: 2, 3
TAM 9th Race: 7, 10
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $42
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/2/24
February 1, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita - Friday, Feb. 2, 2024
RACE 1
2-NESSO’S LASTHURRAH
Degree of confidence: B+
• Smart maiden win over this course and distance last month.
• Earned a strong, vastly improved speed figure in victory.
• Despite his 18-1 price, sharp win was no fluke, can repeat.
Others to consider: 5-Beer Money.
RACE 2
3-BIG BUZZ
Degree of confidence: B
• Veteran gelding returns to his winning level, solid top choice.
• First or second in four of eight starts over the local main track.
• Needs patient handling; regular pilot Alsagoor knows him well.
Others to consider: 4-Settecento.
RACE 3
1-TIERGARTEN
Degree of confidence: B
• Sensible class drop into a claimer following a two month vacation.
• Favorable inside draw, projects to enjoy an ideal ground saving trip.
• First or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita lawn.
Others to consider: 2-Chasinserendipity.
RACE 4
3-LETTHELIQUORTALK
Degree of confidence: B
• Ran better than looked in his debut facing tougher maiden claimers.
• Adds Lasix, takes a class drop to the bottom rung, switches to Berrios.
• Though well beaten, earned a better than par number in his first start.
Others to consider: 4-Smiling Jojo.
RACE 5
5-DESMOND DOSS
Degree of confidence: B-
• Was nosed out facing tougher foes last month, suspicious class drop.
• Plenty of back class and has career earning in excess of a $500,000.
• First or second in six of eight career starts over the local main track.
Others to consider: 1-Top Gun Tommy.
RACE 6
4-UPTOWN PREACHER
Degree of confidence: B+
• Modest pedigree but debuts protected in a sign of confidence.
• Lands Flavian Prat and his a.m. workouts have caught the eye.
• Worth a small gamble at or near his 8-1 on the morning line.
Others to consider: 3-Sand to Sea, 6-Boogie Like.
RACE 7
6-SWEET AZTECA
Degree of confidence: B+
• Was ambitiously placed in the La Flores Stakes and did well.
• Established hot pace but weakened late while possibly rusty.
• Facing entry level allowance ranks; lands a cozy outside draw.
Others to consider: 5-Nokie.
RACE 8
6-ULTIMATE AUTHORITY
Degree of confidence: B
• Improved considerably over this track and distance last month.
• Pressed the pace, dug in, battled gamely, but missed by a head.
• Was far clear of the rest; a similar effort today earns him a diploma.
Others to consider: 1-Gate to Paradise; 7-Where’s My Ring.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #3
Fair Grounds - Race #5
Picks Notes #8 Tough Charlie Not sure exactly what to expect from him after a couple flat efforts, but he gets into an easier spot and isn't all that far removed from some turf tries that would probably win this. Midrange price play? #6 Channel Won I think he's supposed to win this on overall form, and he should get a good race flow in a spot that doesn't have a ton of other finishing players. Mild concern about not having a published work since the last race, but he's also 10, so maybe they've been able to keep him happy with lesser work. #3 Hooray Austin He has some early speed and has occasionally shown the ability to relax a bit, so he's one of the more interesting forward players. There's some OK back turf form here. Race Summary Tough Charlie makes the third start of the winter campaign, so maybe he's in the mix with something like the better turf form on his page.
Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Papa Jojo I think his Gulfstream turf form from early last year might stack up OK here if he's able to get anywhere near it, and the new rider has done some solid price work on the turf here. #4 Caroom He's a pretty reliable finisher whose best would do here, but he'll need to fire fresh off the May '23 break. Little concerned that he won't get the pace he needs. #5 Anger Rising He made only the mildest move in the Tampa debut on the main track, but he might have some upside on the surface switch for an operation that has historically done their best work on the turf. Race Summary Papa Jojo needs his best, but I think he also might enjoy a pretty cozy trip right up near the pace in a race that doesn't have a lot of it. Honestly feel like the two-back race might do the job if he can find it.
Picks Notes #12 Love Light The debut showed this level was a pretty solid spot for her, and I imagine she might have just a tiny bit of upside second out. A little bit more punch in the lane might be enough. #11 Berlaine She's dropping and getting around two turns, both things that give her a chance to move up today, but I worry she's going to become a default choice based on the team. #9 Clearly Copper Honest finisher has had a lot of chances, but she has been knocking on the door at short prices and now goes for the new team. Dangerous. Race Summary Love Light could get a bit overlooked thanks to the presence of the other two listed above, but I think a reasonable move forward in the second career start might keep her in the frame. Would want #4 Not Tonight Joe on the reach tickets.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes #4 MAGIC HOOH (5-2) Chased repeater, can be in control throughout in first long-distance test. #6 AWESOME CITY (7-2) Pace dependent, alert start would help, burned money in last pair. #5 BARFLY (7-2) Gets class relief, gets in light, also looms a front-end danger in 13th start. Race Summary MAGIC HOOH chased an improving Redisur – a next-out repeat winner at 14-1 – and held second at 7F last out. Looks like he could be the target today and the one to beat if he handles the added ground. Bet to win and place.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes #6 A FANCY SOLUTION (7-2) Can carry speed a lot farther on class drop in second turf go-round. #2 PLATINUM DIVA (5-2) Steadily improving, passed by deep-closing favorites in longer route. #3 ALMA PURA (6-1) Returns to claim level for third start after useful try on the lawn. Race Summary A FANCY SOLUTION faded badly after chasing the longshot leader around the final turn in a MSW grass mile. The winner was a 5-2 first-time starter and the race produced 1-2-3 next-out finishers. Go the distance with a win and place wager.
Picks Notes #2 GAMBITO (7-2) All-or-nothing type for new connections off year-plus layoff. #8 SWING SAMMY (3-1) Had rapid pace to rally into but didn’t, still worth a second look. #1 UNEXPECTED TIGER (4-1) Finished in the money in his last six starts, all going a route of ground. Race Summary GAMBITO returns from a 14-month layoff at the bottom level for a 15-percent barn in 2023. He gets Lasix, faces seven rivals who are a combined 0-for-82 and should get an ideal set-up if he tracks from off the pace. Play 2-1 and 2-8 exactas.
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