Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: Wednesday 2/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

  1. #1
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380

    Wednesday 2/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


  2. #2
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Mahoning Valley - Race #5
    Picks Notes
    #4 Blue Nomore He might be quick enough to get the jump on the likely chalk, and the price should get a little bit better this time around after he caught a tough winner. Don't think he's far off it.
    #8 Ivory Sky His baseline effort is probably supposed to handle this bunch as he makes his local debut, but he has also had a lot of chances in California already and is almost sure to get bet.
    #1 C V Shackles Debuter has been prepping at Horseshoe Indianapolis and meets what feels like a top-heavy bunch at first asking. Won't have to be a star to grab a piece of this.
    Race Summary Blue Nomore might be a bit more playable this time around as the likely second choice in this spot, but it's Ivory Sky's race to lose while making the move in with OH-breds after previously racing in California.
    Mahoning Valley - Race #7
    Picks Notes
    #7 Poseidon's Son Think he might get a perfect tracking trip in here while drawn outside of a couple of need-the-lead type horses in sharp form. First jump if the two early burners wear each other out?
    #2 Wildcat Express He has been almost completely unstoppable since moving into the new barn, winning six of his last seven -- all by open lengths on the front end. He's the one to beat, but I worry about the one just outside of him forcing the issue the entire way.
    #3 Inside Stunt He has been perfect since becoming a local in November, riding a three race win streak -- all by open lengths on the front end. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, but I'm hoping he'll get picked up late.
    Race Summary Poseidon's Son might be quick enough to stay in touch with Wildcat Express and Inside Stunt on the turn, and that could leave him in a great spot to get the jump on a couple of interesting finishing threats.
    Mahoning Valley - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #2 A P's Runaway Diva She's coming out of a race that felt better than this one overall, so I'm hoping she's a bit overlooked off that quick chase and fade running line. She might still have some room to come forward in just her third start, and maybe she finds a decent tracking spot today at a midrange price.
    #8 Moment in the Dark He looks like the one to beat, but I worry the price will get on the short side despite the fact that he's given away significant ground in the stretch call of all four starts. Tough call, but he's an obvious threat to put this one away early while not facing much serious pace.
    #4 Kennedy's Camelot He's got a few lengths to turn on Moment in the Dark from that Jan. 23 meeting, but this guy was debuting today and brings some obvious potential upside. Wouldn't be a shock to see him improve on the even first run.
    Race Summary A P's Runaway Diva should be a fair price against the boys, and I think she might find her sweet spot while tracking the pace today.

  3. #3
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


    Penn National - Race #1
    Picks Notes
    #3 BAHAMA PEARL (3-1) Gets break in conditions, will need to show passing gear.
    #4 SHATTER ME (2-1) Good first gear, won 5 of 12 last year, strictly one to beat.
    #8 DAILY BRIEFING (8-1) Can rally onto gimmick wager tickets at good price.
    Race Summary BAHAMA PEARL raced close-up and finished second in 3 of her last 5 starts, two in tougher race conditions. When she raced against non-winners in six months two starts ago, she held a clear stretch lead and got caught by Classy Sadie (38/5-8-7, $183k). Bet to win and place.
    Penn National - Race #2
    Picks Notes
    #1 MAGIC PATH (5-1) All paths lead to a possible first-out victory going a route of ground.
    #2 EDDIE FELSON (2-1) Hit board in all four starts on dirt, failed at 1-to-5 in latest, gets Lasix.
    #6 PRETORIAN GOLD (3-1) Gets makeover, stretches out in distance for third start.
    Race Summary MAGIC PATH shows a long series of steady workouts at Fair Hill and wears blinkers for his debut from the rail. He is by eight-time graded stakes-winning router Hoppertunity and his dam, Fareena, won the first two starts of her career and was stakes winner as a 3-year-old. Play 1-2, 1-5 and 1-6 exactas.
    Penn National - Race #3
    Picks Notes
    #4 CLASSICALCROSSOVER (8-1) Lacked kick as beaten fave in same spot, worth a try at inflated price.
    #6 LADY GABRIELLE (5-1) Burned money in U.S. debut, gets blinkers and class relief tonight.
    #3 BINOIC KAT (5-2) Showed speed, held for minor awards in 5 of last 6 starts.
    Race Summary CLASSICALCROSSOVER, winless in five starts in her debut season as a 4-year-old, starts fresh for her new connections. She gets plenty of pace to rally into and her best effort could translate into an upset victory. Bet to win and place.

  4. #4
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

    PURCHASE
    Penn National - Race 2
    W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
    Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 CR: 69 • Purse: $34,000 • Post: 6:29P
    (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PRETORIAN GOLD is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRETORIAN GOLD: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. EDDIE FELSON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EAST AURORA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
    6
    PRETORIAN GOLD
    3/1
    3/1
    2
    EDDIE FELSON
    2/1
    5/1
    5
    EAST AURORA
    7/2
    5/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    6
    PRETORIAN GOLD
    6
    3/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    68
    63
    55.7
    55.7
    49.7
    4
    FINAL OPPORTUNITY
    4
    12/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    0
    0
    44.6
    47.4
    40.4
    5
    EAST AURORA
    5
    7/2
    Alternator/Stalker
    68
    66
    37.0
    55.3
    48.8
    2
    EDDIE FELSON
    2
    2/1
    Trailer
    70
    64
    43.7
    61.5
    59.5
    3
    AURORA KUMA
    3
    15/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    0
    0
    29.5
    29.5
    21.5
    Unknown Running Style: MAGIC PATH (5/1) [Jockey: Carrasco Victor R - Trainer: Brion Keri], CHANNEL KING (15/1) [Jockey: Salgado Anthony - Trainer: O'Callaghan Carl J], SUGAR'S LAST HOPE (10/1) [Jockey: Beato Inoel - Trainer: Sinnefia Paulina].

  5. #5
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana DownsPURCHASE


    Louisiana Downs - Race 3
    Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
    Claiming $12,500 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 76 • Purse: $11,200 • Post: 1:55P
    QUARTER HORSE 250Y, (INCLUDES UP TO $1,000 LQHASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ROSE JESS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. JESS CORONA BLUE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. GAME JEWEL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POLITICAL TRAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LILENGINETHATCOULD: Jockey/Trainer combination re turn on investment is at least +20.
    7
    ROSE JESS
    5/2
    5/1
    2
    JESS CORONA BLUE
    9/2
    6/1
    1
    GAME JEWEL
    7/2
    8/1
    3
    POLITICAL TRAIN
    4/1
    8/1
    4
    LILENGINETHATCOULD
    15/1
    10/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    GAME JEWEL
    1
    7/2
    Slow
    82
    70
    6.7
    0.0
    0.0
    3
    POLITICAL TRAIN
    3
    4/1
    Average
    77
    72
    4.6
    0.0
    0.0
    4
    LILENGINETHATCOULD
    4
    15/1
    Average
    73
    71
    5.0
    0.0
    0.0
    5
    LETS FLY BYE
    5
    12/1
    Average
    60
    63
    4.0
    0.0
    0.0
    6
    TDZ A FIERY STREAK
    6
    10/1
    Average
    68
    59
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    7
    ROSE JESS
    7
    5/2
    Fast
    83
    74
    1.0
    0.0
    0.0
    8
    TCB EYE B FAMOUS
    8
    5/1
    Average
    74
    70
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    9
    CORONAS SUNRISE
    9
    8/1
    Fast
    67
    58
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    Unknown Running Style: JESS CORONA BLUE (9/2) [Jockey: Cabrera Rolando - Trainer: Jeane Emily].

  6. #6
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 43

    Rating:

    #2 CREME DE LA QUEEN (ML=5/1)
    #3 UNALTERED (ML=6/1)


    CREME DE LA QUEEN - I really like sprinters that make a rapid turnaround. Have to believe this speed horse has a nice chance on this tight track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. I always like to see a thoroughbred getting Lasix for the first time. Brown adds it on this one today. UNALTERED - I like that latest race on January 13th at Charles Town where she ended up third.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #5 THETA (ML=4/5),

    THETA - Has been conquered as the chalk back to back. A repeat is probably in store.

    GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - UNALTERED - This filly has the pace and the post required on this bullring of a track to run to the lead and never look back.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #2 CREME DE LA QUEEN on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

  7. #7
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 7 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 97

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 7, 2023 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 7 LIKEABLE 3/1
    # 6 HEAT N REHEAT 4/1
    # 2 EAST RAND 10/1

    LIKEABLE has a very good shot to take this race. Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 84. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this gelding. Looks respectable to be up near the lead at the first call. HEAT N REHEAT - Could provide positive gains based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 93. Must be given a chance - I like the figs from the last race. EAST RAND - Valerio is serious with this one, wheeling him back in next to no time. Has been racing quite well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance.

  8. #8
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 7 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 70

    FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 7. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 1 IPSUM GRATUS 5/1
    # 9 MERCY MERCY 4/1
    # 8 TILSA 9/2

    I think IPSUM GRATUS is a quite good choice. She should definitely be considered given the solid speed figs. This mare looks like a playable longshot. This mare is coming back quickly to the track. MERCY MERCY - Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be up near the front end early on. Posted a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. TILSA - This equine is highly ranked this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong speed figures (62 average) at today's distance and surface lately.

  9. #9
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    345,640
    Rep Power
    380
    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,600 Class Rating: 77

    Rating:

    #6 AWESOME SUNDAY (ML=4/1)
    #5 SKY (ML=10/1)


    AWESOME SUNDAY - This horse could be tough in today's race, especially since Diaz rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Shipped in on January 23rd to take the top prize here. Take right back again. A repeat of that last performance on Jan 23rd where she recorded a speed figure of 77 looks lofty enough to triumph in this race. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a good race on January 23rd. SKY - The return on investment when Salazarbecerra and Casalinova partner up is tremendous. The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Casalinova. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Look at this pattern of improvement. 41/61/72 are the last three speed figures. Casalinova drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse will be one to beat at this level.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MAUREENLOVESFRANK (ML=2/1), #1 HIGH SPEED (ML=3/1), #8 SIERRA DIAMOND (ML=6/1),

    MAUREENLOVESFRANK - The Brain always tells me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in sprint events lately. HIGH SPEED - This mare registered a speed rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event. SIERRA DIAMOND - The eighth place finish position in the last affair was not the greatest.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #6 AWESOME SUNDAY on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,6]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    None
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •