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Tampa Bay Downs Pick 4 | Friday, Feb. 9
February 9, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
TAMPA BAY DOWNS PICK 4
Friday, February 9, 2024
No favorites won in the Late Pick 4 sequence at Tampa Bay Downs the last two Fridays and only one winner paid less than $10. The result: Payouts of $5,150 and $1,806 for a 50-cent wager. Will the trend continue this Friday? Here’s a closer look at the action:
TAM 6th race (3:18 p.m. EST) -- I’M STILL BRAVE couldn’t keep pace with class-dropping favorite Skyhooper at 7F, or with recent three-peat winner Callihoo at 6-1/2F in the race prior. But if he breaks alertly from the rail, he could be the target on the cutback to 5-1/2F. VICTORY LINE also has speed and, at worst, should get good forward position from post 11. He bumped a rival at the break in his first start in 10 months, dueled on the backstretch and faded in the lane in a race that produced two next-out turf winners. Expect one of them to break the trend of longshot Pick 4 winners.
TAM 7th race (3:48 p.m. EST) -- WALLY WORLD will be undervalued in his seasonal debut for trainer Chad Brown, but he can’t be ignored. He was among three winners to exit his debut race, then overcame early trouble to rally for second behind multiple graded stakes-placed Spirit Prince in the $120,000 Central Park Stakes at Aqueduct. The same holds true for FULL NELSON, who won 3 of his last 4 starts by a combined 12-1/2 lengths but benefited from a snails-like pace to win an allowance route in his turf debut. Going to hit the ‘ALL’ button in this leg, hoping for that longshot.
TAM 8h race (4:20 p.m. EST) -- GABBYSONHOLIDAY sustained a bid from the far turn to the finish to break his maiden in style at age 5. His winning time was only one-fifth of a second slower than a Maiden Special Weight race on the same card. HOLLYWOOD CLOSEUP sheds 9 pounds on the stretch-out in distance and should sit a good stalking trip at a good price. FROSTY THE SOLDIER ran second twice at 1-mile 40-yards and picks up leading rider Samy Camacho. He was passed by next-out repeater Village Preacher and winning favorite Ghoststryder, respectively.
TAM 9th race (4:55 p.m. EST) -- CADENCIA tries to recapture her form from last summer in New York off a seven-month layoff. She romped in a 6F starter allowance on the Aqueduct turf, blew a long lead in a one-mile allowance on the Belmont lawn and suffered another photo-finish setback in a 5-1/2F allowance at Saratoga. She averaged an 86 Beyer in those three starts, clearly earning favoritism – and Pick 4 solo status – off a :47.4 bullet workout February 1.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
TAM 6th Race: 1, 11
TAM 7th Race: ALL
TAM 8th Race: 3, 7, 9
TAM 9th Race: 7
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $27
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #4
Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes #3 Taylors Magic She got her start with a good third at 56/1 on the turf at Kentucky Downs, and she has raced three times on the main track since then, including a stakes try. Her last showed a little bit of life, and the move back to the grass could help her find a step forward. #4 Sharp Flame She should have a little upside while trying turf and getting Lasix, but they didn't think she was going to be a star when they debuted her for a tag, so I wonder how exactly how much to expect from her. Capable in an iffy race. #2 Galadini Dropper never really picked up when sent two turns on the main track, but she moves to turf for this first try with claimers, and the class relief might serve her well. In the mix. Race Summary Taylors Magic seems interesting enough with the Kentucky Downs debut on the page before a trio of mostly modest efforts on the main. Wouldn't be a shock to see her like this trip.
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes #12 Jam's Paper Moon She needs a scratch to draw in, but I think she might be capable of beating the likely chalk if she gets to go. She made a nice advance in the first start and might sustain that a bit better this time around. Interesting. #4 Tarneema She finished up with a full head of steam after leaving herself way too much to do in the debut run, but a cleaner getaway could make her a real handful today. #2 Without Cause Wonder if she might wind up getting a bit overlooked with a couple flashier players on the page, but her last was an honest effort that stacks up nicely with these, and she should get the jump on the top pair. Race Summary Jam's Paper Moon might be the right one if she's got some reasonable upside at second asking. #1 Martynas' Joy is another to consider while getting back to the turf.
Picks Notes #1 Averi Ever After There are a handful of pace players drawn out wider in here, and they might be hustling for position and crossing over. That could lead to her landing a really nice tracking trip while saving some ground and watching it all unfold. I'm encouraged by her last. #3 J Z's First She doesn't have much early pace and would benefit if all the potential speed hooked up, but she's pretty honest and figures to be winding up on the turn again today. #2 Dre Me Less A bit of the other potential speed draws farther out, so there is at least some chance she breaks well and finds herself as the controlling pace. The recent form isn't much, but she might wake up on the drop. Race Summary Averi Ever After might work out a trip that lets her avoid any early battle but still get the jump on some serious finishers like J Z's First. I'd feel pretty good being live to those three.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes #1 HIGH BROW (5-2) Back with own kind in second start off D’Angelo claim, stands 19/6-6-1 at distance. #2 JUST PLAIN ORNERY (8-5) Went wire-to-wire in his last three fast-track route races. #6 DANVILLE (4-1) Tracked soft pace while 3-wide, faded on turn, finished evenly at Gulfstream. Race Summary HIGH BROW returns to his claim level, where he posted a repeat victory at this distance in the race prior. He saved ground until swinging 4-wide in the stretch and kicking clear. He should be forwardly placed from the rail but probably will have the favorite to run down. Bet to win and place.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes #7 MIGHTY GIN GIN (6-1) Can control pace in first try at 7F, too good to pass up at morning-line price. #3 DANCE STEP (3-1) Hit board in 3 of last 4 at Tampa – and all the races yielded next-out winners. #8 SIGN AND STEAL (15-1) Gets needed class relief, can rally for minor awards on cutback in distance. Race Summary MIGHTY GIN GIN held off a trio of deep closers to win at 6F last out, something she was unable to do in her previous three starts, when she led clear into the stretch before the winners rallied from fifth, ninth and 12th at the first call. She lands in an ideal pace-controlling spot as the lightweight in the field and is today’s Best Bet.
Picks Notes #6 FROSTY SECRET (5-2) Ran second on short rest, needs only to fire best shot on lengthy rest. #9 FAR ABOVE (6-1) Rallied for third behind upper-50s Beyer type winning favorite two back. #7 LUCKY IN LOVE (2-1) Unwound too late in both local starts as the favorite on the lawn. Race Summary The 10 entrants in the main body of this one-mile maiden claimer are a combined 0-for-70 with five seconds on the turf. That makes FROSTY SECRET’S runner-up finish at this distance when last seen at Colonial Downs in the fall good enough to win here. She chased comparable middle fractions to a same-day, $12,500/nw3 route race for the boys but couldn’t reach upset winner Rebel Consort, who later finished second in a $20,000/nw2 claimer at Tampa. Bet to win and place and play a 6-7-9 exacta box.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE
Equibase Special - Race 1 Maiden Optional Claiming $40,0 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 12:39 GP - R2 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FLORIDA-BRED, OR MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (FLORIDA-BRED PREFERRED). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MADAKET'S ARROW: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BRITISH EMPRESS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CERCHI: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MADAKET'S ARROW BRITISH EMPRESS CERCHI
Unknown Running Style: IN AWE (3/1) [Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler - Trainer: Weaver George], STARSHIP PIONEER (20/1) [Jockey: Panici Luca - Trainer: Dwoskin Steven].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCERCHI Front-runner MADAKET'S ARROW Front-runner ETNA'S NAPPER Alternator/Stalker BRITISH EMPRESS Alternator/Stalker SPREZZATURA Alternator/Non-contender SUDOKU TERRY Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE
Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1 Maiden Special • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $80,000 • Post: 3:24P AQU - R6 - (UP TO $13,920 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * XCELLENT MEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANDY CANT: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VENGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HERO'S MEDAL: Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third pla ce horse. BOLT D'PLATA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. XCELLENT MEN ANDY CANT VENGE HERO'S MEDAL BOLT D'PLATA
Unknown Running Style: CLARE QUILTY (9/2) [Jockey: Franco Manuel - Trainer: Brown Chad C].
Line
Class
Speed
FigurePRICING POWER Front-runner HERO'S MEDAL Alternator/Front-runner XCELLENT MEN Stalker VENGE Alternator/Stalker ANDY CANT Trailer BOLT D'PLATA Trailer GOLD 'N' SCARLET Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - SO - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 88
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 9 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 4 WARRIOR'S CAUSE 9/2
# 5 DIAMOND HEIST 2/1
# 1 BAYOU SHACK 7/2
WARRIOR'S CAUSE seems to be the bet in here. Kulp has a strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. Looks quite good against this group of horses and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. Ran a strong last race. DIAMOND HEIST - Hernandez and Chircop are a strong pair for gains. Must be given a chance based on the respectable speed fig earned in the last race. BAYOU SHACK - He has been racing soundly recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figs. With a reliable 74 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 57
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 ITZCOATL 5/1
# 6 SMACKOVER LIME 4/1
# 8 VICTOR ALY 9/2
My choice for this race is ITZCOATL. I like Fusilier on this colt to give him a solid chance to hit the wire first. SMACKOVER LIME - Look for a formidable pace improvement from this equine who enters with second time Lasix today. A solid 80 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group of horses. VICTOR ALY - Will make a strong outing versus this field.
Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 61
Rating:
#1 IM STILL BRAVE (ML=5/1)
#11 VICTORY LINE (ML=5/2)
#9 ESCAPE KEY (ML=2/1)
IM STILL BRAVE - After the event aboard this horse on Jan 27th, the jockey is going to be acquainted with the gelding much better. This gelding's last rating is lofty enough to win here, I'll wager on him right back in today's event. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 44 to 55 to 59 right in a row. VICTORY LINE - Trainer Morey moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a good race in this race. This entrant ran off the board at Tampa Bay Downs last time out on a track listed as good. He should improve right here in this race on a fast track. When a horse drops at least five pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but this certainly could make the difference. ESCAPE KEY - The January 26th affair at Aqueduct was at a class level of (77). Dropping down the class scale drastically, so he should be in a good position. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +536. This rider/handler tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. Last time around the track, finished eighth in the slop at Aqueduct. Expect better in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SEMINOLE AUSTIN (ML=8/1),
SEMINOLE AUSTIN - Should take this one off your contenders list with the shortage of zip in that last route race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - IM STILL BRAVE - One of my favorite plays is a longshot that has the top TM Power Rating.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #1 IM STILL BRAVE to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with [9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,9,11] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:Pass
Oaklawn Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#9 WYFIRE (ML=8/1)
#11 CREEKMORE (ML=5/2)
WYFIRE - Ran last time around the track against a high class rated field at Oaklawn Park. The move to a lower level should suit him well. You probably want to overlook that last race at Oaklawn Park on a muddy track where he finished out of the money. Should do well right here on a fast track. CREEKMORE - Was in a $10,000 Claiming race at Oaklawn Park last out. That event had an Equibase class figure of 93 and he is moving down right here. A certain serious competitor. Last time around the track, finished eighth on the mud at Oaklawn Park. Have to give a better effort in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FULL AUTHORITY (ML=9/5), #6 BABY BOOMER (ML=4/1),
FULL AUTHORITY - A bit of a less than stellar try when this horse finished third. BABY BOOMER - No favorable outcomes for this entrant in a short distance race over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a thorny spot You think this horse is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first frequently.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #9 WYFIRE on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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